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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, October 25th, 2016

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Brandon Lee

Warriors -8

I know this is a big number for Golden State to be laying against what is perceived to be one of the few contenders in the Western Conference in San Antonio, but I'm not buying the Warriors starting out slow. I think Durant is a perfect fit for this team and while they did lose some pieces from last year, Golden State still has incredible depth. The Spurs are working in some new pieces and just don't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Warriors, especially with the game being played in Golden State, where the Warriors almost never lose. Let's not forget both games in Golden State last year saw the Warriors win by double-digits, including a 30-point blowout win in the first meeting.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:24 pm
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Mike Lundin

Warriors -9

The Golden State Warriors were unstoppable for most part of the regular season last year, particularly at home, but they came up short in the finals losing to the Cavs in seven games. They'll be hungry for revenge, and they're coming off a dominant preseason.

The Warriors have strengthened their already NBA-best offense with Kevin Durant from OKC during the offseason, and I think they'll win big when hosting the San Antonio Spurs in the season opener Tuesday night. The Warriors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home at Oracle Arena and they'll face a Spurs team that might not be quite as strong as in previous years.

San Antonio has lost future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan to retirement, and guard Danny Green is expected to miss the first three weeks of the season. I don't think the Spurs can match up with the Warriors here in the season opener.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:24 pm
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Jimmy Boyd

Cavs -9½

I don't think Cleveland is going to be a great bet early in the season, as they aren't all that concerned about their regular season record. However, I do think they come to play tonight at home in the opener. The players have been looking forward to getting their rings and hanging the banner in Quicken Loans for quite some time. They know this moment means a lot to their fans and I think they are going to make a point of not disappointing them.

As for the Knicks, I just don't think the moves the Knicks made in the offseason are going to pay off, at least not right away. New York added in 3 new starters with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee. Rose the big addition barely played in the preseason dealing with a civil trial in LA. I'm not saying this team can't end up being good, I just think it's going to take some time for them to build up some chemistry. Similar to what we saw in Miami, when James and Bosh joined forces with Wade, though I don't think the Knicks have the potential of being a series title contender.

While New York is trying to figure out how to play with each other, Cleveland basically brings back the same team from last year, who was sensational down the stretch. Keep in mind it's not just the offense where teams like the Knicks need time to gel, it's also on the defensive side of the floor. Adding to that, is the fact that I don't feel NY has anyone to matchup with James and keep him from doing whatever he wants.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:25 pm
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Jack Jones

Warriors -8½

The Golden State Warriors are absolutely loaded this season. They are essentially replacing Harrison Barnes with Kevin Durant, and the sky is the limit for them because of it. They put up gaudy numbers in the preseason and that will only carry over into the regular season opener against the Spurs today.

The Spurs are sure to take a big step back this season. They will be without Tim Duncan for the first time since 1996, and stalwarts like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are only shells of their former selves. Danny Green opens the season injured and out as well.

The Warriors went 6-1 in the preseason, scoring 112.7 points per game in the process, which was the second-best mark in the NBA. To compare, the Spurs only averaged 97.2 points per game. The Warriors gave up 101.6 points per game defensively, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game.

This 8.5-point spread is actually a reasonable price for the Warriors, and you won't find that often this season. We'll take advantage as the Warriors are 32-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. They're also 33-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:25 pm
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Dave Price

Utah Jazz +6

I project the Utah Jazz to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. I know they're a little banged up in the early going as they are without Gordon Hayward, but this is a deep team that will win with defense this season. Dante Exum is back to full strength, and the additions of George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw were three of the more underrated acquisitions of the offseason. I believe the Jazz are a legitimate top 4 or 5 team in the West, and I look for them to get off to a great start this season with a cover and possible upset of the Portland Trail Blazers.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:26 pm
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Bob Valentino

There will be a lot of points scored on opening night, in Quicken Loans Arena. The New York Knicks have an entirely different look to their roster, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are the defending NBA champs.

Both teams will be looking to prove something in this one, especially the Knicks, who have several new faces, including Derrick Rose. New York won't waste time pushing the tempo and looking to challenge the champs, knowing LeBron James and company will be looking to put on a show after their ring ceremony.

And while we know what James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are capable of, let's talk about the Knicks, who now have Rose, Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings. And lest we forget they have Carmelo Anthony, fresh off his third Olympic gold medal. Coach Jeff Hornacek said the Knicks will still run some of Phil Jackson's vaunted triangle offense, but will also push the ball quickly, taking advantage of Rose's speed while creating more easy baskets.

The crowd will be hyped, as well, since the Indians will be opening the World Series just up Ontario Street. This town will be electrified, and we're going to see the Cavs and Knicks feeding off the energy.

I honestly would not be surprised to see both of these teams get into the 100s. And for the most part, over the first few quarters, see these two engage in a shootout.

Play this one high.

5* Knicks/Cavaliers Over

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 4:18 pm
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Eric Schroeder

Opening night, and I'm headed to the Northwest for the battle between rivals Utah and Portland. This number seems cheap, too, which is why I like the home chalk. The Trail Blazers will win by double digits tonight.

Seriously, this is no longer a shockingly overachieving team. There is no secret and everyone is well aware how dangerous Damian Lillard is when he's on the floor.

Portland went 44-38 last season despite losing four starters to free agency the previous summer, and I think it will be much better this season with team chemistry in place.

Remember, that 44-win team last season lost to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference semifinals. And with a deep bench, I'm thinking the Blazers will vie again for the Northwest Division title.

What I really like about this team, is how it took a preseason team-bonding trip to San Diego, building the relationships among all the players. Reports out of Portland are that this team is very tight.

The Jazz added components that will help them vie for a playoff spot, but I'm not so sure coach Quin Snyder has all the kinks worked out just yet. The additions of George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw will give this team a boost, but it won't be able to beat the Blazers on opening night in Portland.

Lay the home chalk.

5* TRAIL BLAZERS

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 4:19 pm
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Brett Atkins

Comp release for Tuesday is Golden State over San Antonio.

OK, I will buy into the Warriors hype for tonight, as Kevin Durant joins the "Splash Brothers" as they look to get the season off to a good start in front of the home crowd.

It's a new era in San Antonio as well, as life begins without the Big Fundamental - Tim Duncan wearing a Spurs uniform.

The Warriors have captured 4 of the last 6 series meetings both straight up and against the spread, and in that stretch, they are a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in their meetings with the Spurs in Oakland.

Going to buy into the Durant bandwagon at least for tonight.

Warriors roll.

4* GOLDEN STATE

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 4:19 pm
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Chris Jordan

Here we have baseball's two longest championship droughts, and the one in Cleveland is about to end after 68 years. Yup, Cubs fans, the drought continues, sorry bout it. Well, not really. I don't care about that losing streak. Hell, I'm a Yankees fan anyway, so I'll still be able to enjoy more championships than both fanbases.

But here's the deal, the Cleveland Indians have the best bullpen in this series, and that's what will matter most when it's all said and done.

Led by the almost-unhittable southpaw, Andrew Miller, Cleveland's stellar bullpen recorded a 1.67 ERA over 32 1/3 innings during the America League playoffs. Miller was the MVP of the American League Championship Series, making him the fourth reliever ever to win the award.

How good is this pitching staff? The Indians are an amazing 69-1 this season when leading a game by three runs at any point.

How good is this pitching staff? Cleveland's three shutouts in the postseason are the most by an American League team since the Yankees had four in 1998. Don't be surprised if the Tribe adds a couple in this World Series. What? You don't think the Cubs can be shutout two more times, like they were in the National League Championship Series?

Look, while I'd like to see young Kris Bryant hoist a trophy, I don't think he is going to this year. It's Believeland baby! Everything is going good on Ontario Street. Everything is looking up... well, except for the Browns. They still look like stir-fried crap.

The Indians are a much different team at home, and they hold the homefield advantage. Cleveland was an American League-best 53-28 at home, and led the league with 11 walkoff wins. The Indians are 4-0 at Progressive Field in the postseason, and, well, that's all we need - four wins!

Take the Tribe. See ya next year Cubs fans.

5* INDIANS in World Series

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 4:20 pm
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Brad Wilton

Tuesday comp play is Under in Game One of the Fall Classic.

The Cubs did wake up at the dish to end their series with the Dodgers, as they were able to score 23 runs over the last 3 games of the N.L.C.S., but they now must deal with the fact the Indians have been lights-out this October on the hill, as ALL 5 games played in the A.L.C.S. against the Blue Jays held Under the total.

Overall, 7 of the 8 games the Indians have played this October have held Under the total.

Jon Lester is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his 3 playoff starts thus far, while Cleveland hurler Corey Kluber is 2-1 this postseason with a 0.98 ERA for the playoffs. All 3 of Kluber's playoff starts have ended up holding Under the total.

Looks like runs are at a premium to me tonight in Game One.

Cubs-Indians Under the total.

4* CUBS-CLEVELAND UNDER

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 4:20 pm
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ALEX SMART

Panthers vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins -158

Barring a last minute change it looks like Sid Crosby will play tonight for the Pittsburgh Penguins. He has sat out recently with a concussion, but has now been cleared to play. His presence will be a boost for the defending Stanley Cup Champs , which I am betting translates into a win on home ice this evening.

Panthers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.Penguins are 36-16 in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference.Penguins are 28-9 in their last 37 home games. the last 24 meetings.Panthers are 2-14 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 4:21 pm
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Ben Burns

St Louis -200

These teams just played in Calgary on 10/22, the Blues winning 6-4. While the Flames would obviously love to avenge that loss, the Blues have a major scheduling advantage. While St. Louis hasn't played since the game at Calgary, the Flames are off a rare road win last night, upsetting the Blackhawks. That means they'll be playing their third game in the past four here. It'll also be their 7th game in 11 days, which is a pretty tough stretch, when also factoring in considerable travel. The Flames are already 0-1 when playing the second of b2b games though and they'll be taking on a well-rested, well-coached and determined St. Louis team, one which has dominated them in recent seasons. The Blues are 17-6 their last 23 home games with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, they're 25-11 (+10.2) when playing with two day's rest. Back-to-back losses, prior to the win at Calgary, should ensure there's no complacency. The Blues are now 6-1 against the Flames the past few seasons and that includes a 3-0 mark here at home. With the schedule in its favor, the superior team wins again.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 5:10 pm
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