Jim Feist
Boston at Cleveland
Pick: Over 212.5
The season hasn't even begun and the Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries. PG Isaiah Thomas (hip) is out and star forward Lebron James is questionable with a ankle injury. There are new faces to this Cavs team including Dwayne Wade, Derrick Rose and Jae Crowder. Wade averaged 11.5 ppg during the preseason. The Celtics were 4-0 in preseason and will showcase new talent in forward Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving formerly of the Cavs. The Cavs could have a formidable starting lineup with Rose, Wade, James, Crowder and Love. The Celtics should content this year too if they remain healthy. The Celtics and Cavs usually put up points when they meet, as four of the last five in Cleveland have gone OVER. In addition, the OVER is 40-19-1 in the Cavs last 60 games. I'm going to go OVER here with two rested teams.
Buster Sports
Toronto at Washington
Play: Over 6.5
Two high-powered offenses face-off tonight when the Toronto Maple Leafs face the Washington Capitals. These two clubs lead the league in power-play percentage at 30.8 for the Leafs and 30.0 for the Capitals. On the other side of the spectrum, they are both under 80% when killing penalties. This mix makes for a bunch of goals being scored tonight. The defences have also been beyond bad for both clubs, as the Leafs have allowed 3.80 goals against per game and the Capitals 3.67. Now it is early in the year and these statistics will improve for both clubs but it really shows what kind of high-scoring game we are going to have tonight. At the time of this writing, the total is 6 1/2. This game takes us back to the days where totals were regularly 7 1/2 and 8. Every Toronto game has gone OVER the posted total this year and Washington are 5-1 O/U. There is no reason for us to believe that this game will be any different.
Zack Cimini
Rockets at Warriors
Play: Rockets +9.5
The Warriors come in off another NBA championship after destroying the Cavaliers in last year’s NBA Finals. There’s no doubt there destined for another run but I’m always leery in backing a champion off the bat of a season. Houston lost their on ball strong guard defender in Patrick Beverly in a trade for Chris Paul. Bringing together chemistry of two talented guards is hard to do with Paul and Harden. Yet, I like the steps the Rockets role players took last season. They’ll match the Warriors role players and get enough from Harden/Paul to cover.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto at Washington
Play: Washington
Washington has won 5 of 6 at home vs Toronto and they are a solid 11-1 after allowing 5 or more goals since last year. They are 67-30 after scoring 2 or less goals last out. Toronto has started fast and comes in off an upset win over Montreal. The leafs have lost 14 of 20 vs a team that allowed 5 or more goals. Look for Washington to bounce back after getting plastered in Philly.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Dodgers +100 over CHICAGO
Down 2-0 in the series, the Cubs take their best role, the dream-crushers and drought-extenders, back to Wrigley. Last season, they bounced the Dodgers and the Indians—two teams with extended World Series droughts—and this year they’ve once again trounced the Series-less Nationals franchise. The top of the Dodgers’ order is the terrifying part—and they did predictably well against the Diamondbacks in Round 1 of the playoffs—but over the last three games #PuigYourOffense. The oft-ridiculed right fielder has had a heck of a comeback season, and thrilled in the NLDS with three singles, two walks, a double, and a triple. If he stays hot, Cubs pitchers will have to deal with two potent heart-of-the-order-caliber threesomes before making it to the seventh hitter in the lineup. Even if you’re Kyle Hendricks, that’s brutal. By the numbers, you can see a real advantage on L.A.’s side. The Dodgers lineup is Fort Knox—there’s no getting through its walls—and it took an exceptional performance by a former teammate who knows the order inside and out (Zack Greinke) to keep the Dodgers from scoring fewer than eight runs in any game during the NLDS. The Dodgers have scored 29 times over their last five games while the Cubbies have scored two or fewer in four of its last five playoff games and three or fewer in six of its seven playoff games this season. Early in his major league career, Yu Darvish met the lofty expectations that followed him from Japan. His progress slowed, though, when he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015. After returning in mid-2016, he hit the DL again with a sore shoulder. After 187 innings this year, Darvish looks as good as ever and maybe even better. He threw a gem against the D-backs at Chase Field in the NLDS and that’s as tough a nine as any in baseball in their own yard. Darvish is generating a lot of swinging strikes, which keeps his K-rate high. He struck out 209 batters in in 187 innings and has 32 K’s with just six walks issued over his last 27 frames. His command sub-indicators have soared in his last five starts too with a 14% swing and miss rate, 62%, first-pitch strike rate and he even flashed a groundball tilt (46% GB%). Yu Darvish is the straight goods and he’s not facing a hot-hitting lineup here.
Early in his major league career, Yu Darvish met the lofty expectations that followed him from Japan. His progress slowed, though, when he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015. After returning in mid-2016, he hit the DL again with a sore shoulder. After 187 innings this year, Darvish looks as good as ever and maybe even better. He threw a gem against the D-backs at Chase Field in the NLDS and that’s as tough a nine as any in baseball in their own yard. Darvish is generating a lot of swinging strikes, which keeps his K-rate high. He struck out 209 batters in in 187 innings and has 32 K’s with just six walks issued over his last 27 frames. His command sub-indicators have soared in his last five starts too with a 14% swing and miss rate, 62%, first-pitch strike rate and he even flashed a groundball tilt (46% GB%). Yu Darvish is the straight goods and he’s not facing a hot-hitting lineup here.
We’ve all heard the term “crafty lefty” but Kyle Hendricks is a crafty righty. He relies on keeping hitters off balance with his deceiving stuff. Hendricks set a high bar for himself by posting a 2.13 ERA and finishing third in Cy Young Award voting in 2016. He's predictably taken a step back, but he’s also held up well over the course of the season with a 3.03 ERA over 140 innings. Although he’s solid, he’s not in the same class as Darvish and he’s the type of pitcher that has to have his good stuff working or he’s in big danger of an early exit. Never a hard thrower, his velocity has fallen off significantly in 2017. His K-rate and swing and miss rate (7%) are down slightly, and unless he regains some zip on his 86 MPH fastball, he's not likely to improve. He still has a ground ball tilt working for him, but has given up a lot more hard contact this season, which has surely played a role in his higher hr/f. Hendricks pitched twice versus the Nats in the NLDS and was brilliant the first time (7 IP 2 hits) but couldn’t make it past the fourth inning the second time after being tagged for nine hits, two jacks and four runs. Hendricks is a bigger risk than Darvish and it’s also worth noting that the Dodgers pen is in much better shape than Chicago’s.
As a wise man once said, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man” and while the Cubs are still the man, we have to give the edge to the team that won 104 games this season, as almost every edge favors the West Coasters. This is the game that either buries the Cubbies into a big hole or allows them back in the series. In that respect, we’ll take out chances with Darvish at a price and the Dodgers live bats versus a crafty right-hander that may not get much run support.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW JERSEY -1½ +271 over Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 5-1 after six games and appear to have the look of a dominant team in the East. Are we buying it? No fu**ing way. Four of Tampa’s five victories were by one goal. The other, a 5-3 win over Florida was by two goals but the Bolts added an empty netter with 14 seconds left in the game. Essentially, each of their five wins have been by one goal. Winning by one goal is nothing but pure luck.
In the world of hockey analytics, the dominant theory has been that a team's record in one-goal games is almost entirely unpredictable. This was first established by Gabriel Desjardins of Hockey Prospectus after the 2008-09 season. He ran a regression analysis on every team's data from 1979-80 through 2013-14 and found that the season-to-season correlation of a team's record in one-goal games was an almost nonexistent 0.05. It is a proven luck driven result so the Tampa Bay Lightning could just as easily be 0-6 as they are 5-1 but the market only sees a 5-1 record. The Lightning have been outshot -- in some cases by significant margins -- in all but one of their games and rank 27th in expected goals for at 5v5, 25th in expected goals against, and 30th in expected goal differential (only Buffalo ranks lower).They played in Detroit last night and once again were the second best team on the ice. The Bolts are getting some early headlines because of their great record but don’t pay for it. They have been extremely beatable every night and only the goaltending of Andrei Vasilevskiy has prevented them from being in a hole. Incidentally, backup Petr Budaj is likely starting. The Bolts have this market fooled and if you bet them here, you are paying for their misleading record.
The Devils are 4-1 but the market isn’t buying into their success just yet and until they do, we’ll continue to get behind this legitimate playoff team. For one, Cory Schneider is playing great and he’s playing with a different mindset too, knowing that his team doesn’t have to win 2-1 games anymore. The Devils can win 5-4 if need be. The Devils now catch the Lightning in a perfect spot. Only two teams have taken more 5v5 penalties than the Lightning and chances are that they’ll be even more susceptible to penalties tonight in the latter half of a back-to-back, especially if the Devils attack and really use their speed. Nico Hischier ranks 27th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring chances/60 and ahead of notables like Evgeni Malkin and Steven Stamkos. If he continues to get good looks, it's only a matter of time before he pots his first goal. The Devils were not sharp on Saturday night against the Rangers but still won. Pavel Zacha was benched on Saturday for the last two periods but again, the Devils won. He took responsibility for it too, which is another good sign of leadership for this group. The Devils have a swag about them this year and while their .800 winning percentage is unsustainable, we're getting behind them here spotting -1½ pucks because the price is so sweet and the Bolts are about to get exposed.
Columbus -105 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The Blue Jackets are 4-1 and they’ve got the numbers to back up a great start to the season. Columbus is a top-10 puck possession team (8th in CorsiFor%, an advanced statistic used to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play) and 6th in Fenwick For (like Corsi but does not include blocked shots) at 54.7%. The Jackets have outshot the opposition in four of their first five games and putting up more than 30 shots in each of those contest including 43 against the Rangers. Columbus actually outshot the Blackhawks in its only loss which came on the second half of a back to back with backup Joonas Korpisalo making the start. Starting goaltending Sergei Bobrovsky is 4-0 with 1.48 goals against average and a .952 save percentage, which is second to only Chicago’s Corey Crawford in both of those categories. Bobrovsky has played at an elite level to start the season which is more than we can say about his counterpart tonight.
The Jets have ripped off three wins in a row after making the switch to Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. You’d think that head coach Paul Maurice wouldn’t want to tinker with things too much but he is under pressure to play Steve Mason, who the Jets signed to a two year, $8-million deal in the offseason. We’ve got to wonder what the locker room thinks of a decision like this, as Hellebuyck has been around for a few years now, is well liked and has stood on his head to spark this winning streak and he gets rewarded by sitting tonight. There is no doubt who the better option in net is because everything is about money, the Jets aren’t going to sit a player they just signed foralmost $50-thousand a game to warm the bench and work the gate. Maurice has also been critical of his defense and while this team didn’t play well in front of Mason, they haven’t played well in front of Hellebuyck either despite the wins. The Jets are a poor puck possession team and rank 28th in Corsi For at 45.6%. The Jets inability to dictate the pace of play the majority of the time is an even bigger concern when you consider that they are dead last in offensive zone starts at just 39.2% a full 5% behind the next closest club. Winnipeg is spending way too much time in its own end. They’ve been outshot and out-chanced in four of their last five games with the only exception being their game in Edmonton when Hellebuyck still faced 39 shots. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that the Jets are loaded with offensive talent but talent alone is not enough. The timing is off to start Mason. Really off and it can’t be sitting well with anyone in that Jets locker room. The Jackets are a difficult out on any day because of their work ethic, goaltending and talent and in an evenly priced game we’re thrilled to get the superior goaltending.
Florida +125 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Flyers stock is high after they whacked the Capitals 8-2 on Saturday night to run their record to 3-2. The Flyers opened their season with three games in California before playing in Nashville. A bizarre series of events cost them a game in Nashville, thus Philadelphia should have come home 3-1 instead of 2-2. Still, that last win has resonated in the market and now for the first time this year, the Flyers are overpriced. Look, we like the Flyers a lot. They have confidence and they roll out balanced scoring for the first time in years. However, they are a middle of the pack possession team that is worth getting behind offered a price. We’re not quite ready to trust them as the chalk but this one is more about getting behind the most undervalued team in the league.
Enter the Florida Panthers, a team so talented and so dangerous that nobody is talking about. By the time the experts start talking about them, remember where you heard it first. The Panthers have played just four games so they are itching to get back out there. They played and lost in Pittsburgh on Saturday night because Matt Murray was better than Roberto Luongo but the Panthers fired away 46 shots and deserved to win. Against the then undefeated Blues last Thursday, the Panthers buried them 5-2. The Panthers own the biggest shot discrepancy per game in the league thus far. They are dominating everything except goaltending. They have had the puck far more than the opposition has thus far and have scored 16 goals in four games. We’re always concerned about Luongo in net when we’re backing the Panthers but we can’t worry about that, as there is too much value on a team that is very likely going to win the battle in all the key areas. Keep your eye on the Panthers and keep playing them, as there is nothing but profit potential in backing this extremely capable and dangerous bunch.
Toronto +111 over WASHINGTON
The Leafs will face a familiar foe here when they play the team that knocked them out of last year’s playoffs in the first round. Five of the six games went to overtime and the other was a one-goal regulation decision. This year, however, the proverbial passing of the torch is about to begin, as it is Toronto that will likely finish ahead of the Caps in the standing for years to come, including this year. The Caps’ time has passed while Toronto’s is just beginning. Known for their stellar defensive play and balanced scoring, the Caps are not the same anymore, as several players left, few came their way and the team is a year older and slower too. Washington’s defense is a complete mess too. They are allowing an average of 24½ scoring chances against per game and only two teams are worse. The Flyers took advantage of that by burying eight goals on the Caps. The speedy Maple Leafs figure to get even more scoring chances. The blueprint to beat the Caps is not a difficult one. Just stay out of the box and make them beat you 5 on 5 and your chances improve greatly. The Caps are 3-3 but have been badly outshot and outplayed in five of their six games.
The Maple Leafs score goals and while their goals per game average is unsustainable, this is probably the weakest defense they’ll see so far this season. The Rangers defense may be considered worse but Toronto buried eight goals on the Rags. The experts are still going to insist that the Caps are a threat to win the Cup but we’re not in agreement with that. Mentally, the Caps don’t have that swag anymore because they are out of excuses. The goaltending is still solid but that defense is a total wasteland that can’t move the puck out anymore. Barry Trotz’s defensive system is too old school while Mike Babcock changes his strategies to play to the strength of his players. Toronto offers up great value when taking back a price because of their ability to score and get a lead while the Caps will remain overpriced well into the season regardless of their record because of their pedigree. We’ll look to take advantage of that here.
Buffalo +100 over VEGAS
OT included. The Knights come into this game with a 4-1 record and now they’re favored because of that record. What that record doesn’t say is that when the Knights defeated Dallas in their season opener, they were running around for 60 minutes while allowing 46 shots on net. Two of their first four wins have come against the winless Coyotes and another win came against the rookie loaded Bruins. The Bruins managed just 22 shots on Malcolm Subban on Sunday but Subban, who starts again tonight and was claimed off waivers from the Bruins on Oct. 3, was making just the third start of his NHL career after compiling a 0-2 record and a 5.82 goals-against average with the Bruins. No expansion team in any of the major sports has ever started 3-0 or 5-1. The Las Vegas Golden Knights deserve credit for riding a wave of emotion into a strong start but it’s not going to last. While we may consider getting behind this team when they’re a significant dog, they must be faded when favored because that’s where the value lies, as they are going to lose far more games than they’re going to win when it’s all said and done. This is likely one of those.The first win is sometimes the hardest and now that the Sabres are finally on the board, a big weight has come off their shoulders. Buffalo was 0-5 heading into Anaheim on Sunday. They beat the Ducks 3-1 and can now get back to playing some hockey. We were high on the Sabres most of
The first win is sometimes the hardest and now that the Sabres are finally on the board, a big weight has come off their shoulders. Buffalo was 0-5 heading into Anaheim on Sunday. They beat the Ducks 3-1 and can now get back to playing some hockey. We were high on the Sabres most of last year and are high on them this year.
The young core of players ---Sam Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons, and Rasmus Ristolainen—are heading into their third, fourth, and fifth years in the league and they should start playing with more intelligence and consistency. Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, and standout center Ryan O’Reilly are still on the roster. Marco Scandella, a solid defenseman and former Buffalo legend Jason Pominville joined the team in a trade when Botterill shipped longtime Sabres Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis off to Minnesota. And then there’s Jack Eichel, who’s entering his third season after a second that was unfortunately truncated by a high ankle sprain. (He returned after missing the first two months of the season and managed to lead the team in scoring anyway.) This guy is good—a player with sick hands and sneaky speed whose skills transcend the eye test. The Sabres biggest problem this year has been weak goaltending but they rank 12th in puck possession time in the offensive end and should own that advantage here. Again, that first win is big and now a relaxed Buffalo team that gets Kyle Okposo back is wrongly being billed as the underdog here.
Montreal +110 over SAN JOSE
OT included. San Jose starts the year with five straight at home so this is the last game of said home stand. The Sharks are 1-3 to open the year and in very much the same boat as the Canadiens in that Montreal has just one win also but that’s the only similarities between the two teams. The Sharks have only one solid 60-minute effort in four games so they deserve to be 1-3 while the Canadiens are outplaying everyone they face without the results. The Sharks did not get younger in the off-season and they did not get better either. It’s extremely rare an NHL team goes an entire off-season without making a roster addition, either through a trade or signing a UFA. The Sharks lost Patrick Marleau, David Schlemko and Mirco Mueller with draft picks coming back but the only fresh face with impact talent is Kevin Labanc, who played 55 games last year for San Jose. In four games, San Jose has scored eight goals and three of those games were against the Islanders, Philadelphia and Buffalo, not exactly the cream of the crop on defense or in goal. The Sharks may end up being a live dog but we want no part of this team right now as the chalk because they look slower than most and appear to be a fringe playoff team at best.
The Canadiens opened the year with a home win over Buffalo but to fans and media in that hotbed, that must seem like six weeks ago because the Habs haven’t won since. Four straight losses to the Rangers, Washington, Chicago and Toronto have the Habs sitting at 1-4 after five games, which provides us with the opportunity to buy low on them. Montreal has been dominating time of possession. They outshot the Leafs on Saturday night, 34-22 and lost 4-3 in OT. They outshot Chicago 42-25 and lost 3-1. They outshot the Rags 34-25 and lost 2-0. They outshot Washington 39-23 and lost 6-1. Overall, the Habs have held a league high percentage in time in the offensive end. They’ve also created more scoring chances than any team in the league. The Montreal Canadiens are playing great hockey without the results. The good news about that is the market and media puts a high emphasis on results and not performance. Carey Price comes into this start with a .885 save percentage so a major correction to the good is forthcoming. A correction to Montreal’s shooting percentage and power-play numbers are also forthcoming to the good. Montreal now gets away from the media hounds on the East Coast and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The Habs have the ingredients to win, thus the positive returns will follow. Let’s hope it starts here.
Joey Juice
Chicago has been atrocious at the plate. They have completely struggled in the first two games of the series and given nobody any hope that things will get much better. The Dogers bullpen has completely shut out the Cubs giving up zero hits, zero! In fact, the Cubs are hitting just .162 as a team in this series.
A deeper look into the numbers reveals the under is the only play to consider. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 road games vs. a winning team. In fact the Dodgers Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games overall. More importantly the Dodgers Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. Also keep in mind that the Dodgers Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. The National League Central, and the Dodgers under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a winning home team.
The numbers for the Cubs Under are just as good. Chicago Under is 3-0-1 last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Cubs Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games following a day off, and the Cubs under is 6-1 in their last 7 playoff games at home.
The play is Under!
3* L.A. DODGERS-CUBS UNDER
Chris Jordan
Game 3, and the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs are up against it. And the only way this team can challenge the No. 1 seed Los Angeles Dodgers is to buckle down with pitching. The Cubs have to silence the bats, and keep things tight, otherwise this thing is going to 3-0 L.A. tonight.
Darvish steps to the hill after turning in five strong innings versus the Diamondbacks in Game 3 of the National League Divisional Series, as he allowed one run on two hits, while walking none and striking out seven. The right-handed import has faced the Cubs once, giving up just two runs over 4.1 innings on July 16, 2016, when he was still a member of the Texas Rangers.
For the Cubs, we should see the best out of Hendricks, who excelled over seven scoreless innings against the Washington Nationals in Game 1 of the NLDS. He did allow four runs on nine hits in four innings in Game 5 of the NLDS, so I suspect he'll be looking to avenge that outing. His confidence should be right there, as he fired 7.1 scoreless frames against these Dodgers in the Cubs' pennant-clinching NLCS Game 6 win in '16.
Take the under.
2* Cubs/Dodgers Under
Doug Upstone
Hurricanes vs. Oilers
Play: Oilers -121
Edmonton like a lot of good hockey teams has stumbled out of the gate. The Oilers are off a couple of really bad home losses and faces Carolina who has lost two in a row. In this scenario, we are looking for home favorites like Edmonton, off a home loss by three goals or more, against opponent off a road loss. In the past five years, teams like the Oilers are 66-22, 75 percent.
Tommy Brunson
Opening Night in the NBA, and does it get any more interesting that this Boston-Cleveland meeting?
The big offseason trade, the addition of Dwyane Wade to the Cavs as Flash gets reunited with LeBron, etc. etc.
Well, the time for talk, plots and sub-plots is done. The time to jump ball is tonight, and with Cleveland still wanting to show that they are the measuring stick in the Eastern Conference, I will back them as the small home favorite.
LeBron James did suffer an ankle injury late in the preseason and is officially listed as questionable, but I suspect King James will not sit this one out.
Not going to delve into past stats here, as each new season brings its own fingerprint, and in the new chapter of this rivalry, look for the Cavs to get the best of their old teammate Kyrie Irving.
Play Cleveland minus the points.
2* CLEVELAND
Eric Schroeder
It's going to be loud, and it will be rowdy in Cleveland.
Kyrie Irving is back on the floor, but with the Boston Celtics, while the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers have a new face to fans, and old face to LeBron James.
The welcome to Believeland party begins tonights at Quicken Loans Arena, with James, Dwyane Wade and Kevin Love looking to make an early statement against the one team expected to challenge the Cavs for the East title.
It's the season-opener, so we're going to have some fun with this freebie, and simply take a cheap look. Bottom line here is motivation, and after the Indians were knocked from the playoffs sooner than expected, and the Browns a hapless train wreck once again, the Cavaliers will be looking to give fans something to cheer about.
Lay the home chalk.
1* CAVALIERS
Bob Balfe
Dodgers +105
Both of today’s starters had great seasons, but Yu Darvish has been locked in his last few starts. The Cubs are struggling to hit the ball which is never a good sign at this stage of the season going against a pitcher who has walked just one guy and struck out 23 in his last three starts. Look for a low scoring game with LA putting the Cubs on the thinnest of ice to save their title repeat.
Larry Hartstein
Rockets at Warriors
Play: Rockets +9.5
The Rockets improved significantly with the additions of Chris Paul and P.J. Tucker. Tucker brings the toughness and defense this team desperately needed. While the Warriors are in their own class -- their Vegas win total is 11 games higher than anyone else's -- they spent much of the preseason in China where they only practiced twice. If you recall, Golden State lost last year's season opener by 29 points to the Spurs. This time they're not getting blown out at home, not on the night they get their championship rings. But I'm looking for a fairly close game and taking the points