Jimmy Boyd
Heat -3½
Miami is a team that I feel came into the season undervalued after losing Wade in free agency and not really bringing in any big names. They opened with a convincing 108-96 win at Orlando as a 3-point dog, but then blew a 11-point halftime lead in a 6-point loss to Charlotte and then fell by 7 at home to the Spurs. I believe those two losses have Miami way undervalued here at home against a Kings team that is running on fumes.
Sacramento just played last night in Atlanta, where they fell apart late. Not only are they playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this is their 5th game in 7 days since they opened up at Phoenix last Wednesday. I just don't think the Kings are going to be able to match the intensity of the Heat, who know this is one they can't afford to lose with the schedule they have looming.
The Heat are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games with a total of 200 or more and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after losing 2 of their last 3.
Jack Jones
Houston Rockets +9
I really think this is a bad spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their focus isn't 100% on basketball right now, it's on the Cleveland Indians winning the World Series. They even moved the start time up to 6:00 EST to accommodate for the Indians, which starts just after 8:00 EST.
The Indians have the opportunity to close out the Chicago Cubs and give Cleveland its second championship in less than five months -- and the Cavs players want to be there to see it. They have already attended home playoff games in each of the first three rounds as a team and Kyrie Irving said the players intend to walk across the plaza following their game Tuesday to watch the final innings of baseball at Progressive Field.
"It'll be an experience of a lifetime," Irving said. "Game 6 of the World Series, hoo, that's big time. I'm excited for them. I know the city is. I'm happy our game got moved up. I don't mind moving it for the World Series at all. It'll be an exciting time. Hopefully we can get a suite and we can walk over there as a team and watch our home team go for a championship as well."
The Rockets have given the Cavaliers fits. Houston is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Cleveland. It won 106-100 outright as road underdogs last season. The road team has won four of the past five meetings outright as well.
Scott Rickenbach
Grizzlies vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3½
The Timberwolves are the hungrier team, the more rested team, and they are not in a lookahead spot. The Grizzlies are off of a big OT win versus Washington Sunday, they are playing into the teeth of revenge as they beat Minnesota earlier this season, and they have a home game on deck for tomorrow night against New Orleans. On top of all this we have seen the line come down on this game. It's gone from a 5 to a 3.5 and that is offering nice value on a home team that is 0-2 and both losses have been tight. While this is one of just 2 games the Timberwolves have scheduled in a 7 day period, Memphis is playing this one as part of a 4 games in 5 days stretch. Also, every game has involved travel as the Grizzlies have yet to play two straight road games or two straight home games. Tough spot for Memphis here off of a home win over Washington in OT and facing the rested, revenge-minded T-wolves. Minnesota has gone 5-3 ATS as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points. The Timberwolves also are 3-1 ATS in home games against Memphis. The Grizzlies have suffered a SU loss 50 of the last 77 times they've been an underdog. That said, I like the odds on Minny to get the win here and the number is short enough that the cover should not be a problem either.
Dave Price
Pelicans -3.5
The New Orleans Pelicans have opened with a brutal schedule thus far. They have played the Nuggets, Warriors and Spurs during their 0-3 start. They'll be hungry for their first win tonight at home, and they have an excellent chance to get it against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have played as poorly as anyone to this point. They lost by 11 to the Hornets at home and by 15 to the Pistons on the road. Their only win came at home 110-108 over the Brooklyn Nets as 8-point favorites. The Bucks clearly miss Khris Middleton, who was their best scorer but is out for most of the season. Milwaukee is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games dating back to last season. The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 2 days' rest. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -1½ +269 over Nashville
OT included. The Avalanche are not quite getting the respect they deserve after some rather miserable years under Patrick Roy. However, they have a great system in place that the players are buying into, they have extreme depth and talent up front and they are a team on the rise. We’ll have much more regarding the Avs at a later date because this one is more about fading the Predators, a team that does not deserve to be favored or evenly priced in Colorado.
The Predators had a tremendous year last season. They won plenty of games and they had a decent playoff run too before falling to the the eventual West Stanley Cup representative. The Preds defense is well-documented as one of the best in the business. The Preds received more exposure last year, especially after picking up Ryan Johansen from the Blue Jackets and after a strong playoff showing. However, this is a new season and the market is treating them like it’s last year. Well, it’s not last year and the Preds are not playing anything like last year when they were a possession juggernaut that relentlessly pursued the puck. This season, only two teams, the Islanders and Red Wings have a worse possession percentage than the Predators. They have two wins in eight games and the market is attributing it to a slow start. We’re not. The Preds forwards are playing with a fraction of the intensity they played with last year. Perhaps that’s what happens when you work your ass off to score a goal and then your goalie allows two soft ones. It’s demoralizing and it takes a toll. Furthermore, Peter Laviolette always seems to wear out his welcome. He has often taken the teams he has coached to its peak level but there is a subsequent and often dramatic downfall afterward. Laviolette has been fired by the Islanders, Hurricanes and Flyers after his teams apparently quit on him. He’s a fiery, somewhat of an old school coach that wears thin on today’s athlete and his act may be wearing on the Preds. It’s early and the Preds have the personnel to be very competitive but for now, the combination of weak goaltending, poor performances by its forwards and a coach that might be difficult to play for has Nashville high on our fade list.
One could easily play Colorado at a near pick-em but we are going to choose to lay the pucks and take back a huge price. Rinne is always vulenrable to being yanked and Colorado could go off here. Even if the Avs have a one-goal lead, the opportunity for an empty netter is there. '
Buffalo +158 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Buffalo continues to be a live dog almost every time they play because they’re good and they’re rarely favored. The market really is unaware of the Sabres strong upside and their commitment to their continued growth. The Sabres are not the second best team in this matchup and as a result, there is far too much value on them here to ignore. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it in this one.
As we head into the second month of the season, the Minnesota Wild come in with a 6-2-1 record that has them atop the Central Division and third in the NHL's overall standings. The Wild have won four games in a row with goaltender Devan Dubnyk posting shutouts in three straight games. The Wild blanked Boston and Buffalo on the road last week and and returned home with a victory over Dallas. The Wild have gone 181 minutes, 43 seconds without allowing a goal. That misleading record now has them grossly overpriced, which makes us instant sellers.
In their 4-0 win over Dallas on Saturday, the Wild were outshot 29-15. In their 4-0 victory over Buffalo last week, they were outshot 38-22. Minnesota has scored eight times on its last 37 shots for close to a preposterous and completely unsustainable 25% shooting percentage. The Wild have been out-chanced and outshot in seven of nine games and in six of those games, it was by a wide margin. The Wild are a bottom eight team in every key metric, both offensively and defensively. If Devan Dubnyk keeps standing on his head, we suppose the Wild will continue to win their fair share of games but if he regresses somewhat, they are going to start losing a bunch of games. While we cannot predict how any goaltender will play on a given night, one thing we know for sure is that the Wild are overpriced in a big way, which prompts us to step in against them. The price here is sick. Value, value, value.
TORONTO -110 over Edmonton
OT included. This may not appear to be the right time to step in on the Maple Leafs but it is. The line says so. In this week’s podcast (available on Thursday morning), we will discuss “reading between the lines” to give yourself an edge and this is a prime example of that. In that podcast, we are going to discuss “The Pinnacle Factor”, which is in play here.
Pinnacle is widely known as the sharpest book out there and when they take a “position” on a game, it would be wise to pay attention. So, while every other sportsbook is offering the Maple Leafs at a price or as a small dog, Pinnacle has them favored. That’s significant......Just to recap, Edmonton is becoming one the league’s most bet on teams. They are winning games frequently and have already defeated some quality opposition while shooting out to a 7-2 record and the best record in the West.
Meanwhile, Toronto keeps losing. With two wins in nine games, only the Blue Jackets have fewer points in the East than the Maple Leafs and Columbus has a game in hand. Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses this weekend to the Islanders and Habs, where they were outscored 7-2. Now Pinnacle has the Maple Leafs at -115 (at the time of this writing), which is higher than any other price anywhere. They are begging you to bite on the Oilers so therefore Toronto is the play. This is simply You’ve been warned.
Note: We are fairly certain that this line will move in our favor so we are going to wait until after dinner to pull the trigger, as a price tag is very likely forthcoming on the Leafs. We’ll update it later.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND +133 over Chicago
We all know what's at stake here. By the end of the night either the Indians will be celebrating their first championship in 68 years or everyone in Cleveland will be re-thinking how funny all of those "the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the Finals" jokes really were.
Jake Arrieta took a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his Game 2 start in Cleveland, but then failed to make it out of the inning and ended up needing 98 pitches to record 17 outs. It was an outing typical of his season as a whole, with Arrieta being both very difficult to hit and very shaky with his command. He’s yet to go past six innings this postseason and has done so only once since September 1, allowing 24 runs in 46 innings during that span. Arrieta is the reigning Cy Young winner and anything but an easy matchup, but it’s been quite a while since he closely resembled the dominant force from 2015.
Josh Tomlin has never resembled a dominant force, topping out in the high 80s and serving up 36 homers in 174 innings on the way to a 4.40 ERA during the regular season, but he’s allowed a total of just three runs in three postseason starts while relying more on his curveball. He’s also thrown 5.0, 5.2, and 4.2 innings in those three playoff starts, so clearly the Indians know better than to trust Tomlin without limitations, but it’s tough not to be impressed with what he’s done against three very good lineups. At the very least, this is less of a pitching mismatch than “the reigning Cy Young winner versus a soft-tosser with a 4.40 ERA” might suggest, although Tomlin working on short rest makes trusting him even tougher.
Monday’s off day resets the bullpens, although Aroldis Chapman may still be somewhat limited after throwing 42 pitches in Game 5. He’ll definitely be available for one inning, but a repeat of Sunday’s eight-out save may not be an option. Andrew Miller had a rare game off Sunday, so he should be fully available however early and for however long Terry Francona decides to unleash him on the Cubs’ lineup. Given how the Indians tend to handle Tomlin and how much faith they have in Corey Kluber going at least six innings in a potential Game 7, everything points to Francona leaning very heavily--even by his standards--on Miller and Cody Allen tonight. That makes the Indians taking back a tag very appealing.
Joe Maddon surprisingly passed on several high-leverage opportunities to bring Schwarber’s big bat off the bench in Chicago, but writing him into the designated hitter spot simplifies things considerably. Tomlin’s reverse platoon splits caught Maddon’s attention in Game 3, causing him to start Soler over Jason Heyward in right field. Heyward has shown some signs of life recently and is a much better defender, but Soler went 2-for-3 in the first matchup and figures to get the nod again tonight as the Cubs pack the bottom half of the lineup with righties.
Chicago is happy to have access to the DH because it means more Schwarber, but Cleveland likes being able to end Santana’s days as an outfielder too. Francona has settled on a pretty standard lineup against right-handers, opting for Crisp over Rajai Davis. If he sticks with the usual group, the Indians will have Napoli, Perez, and seven lefties against Arrieta, who held lefties to a .194 batting average during the season, but did give up a .308 on-base percentage and very shaky 91/51 K/BB ratio.
Davis is the most potent baserunner on the Indians and looms as a late-inning weapon off the bench, but they also have enough speed up and down the lineup to put Arrieta and Contreras to the test if Francona wants to get tricky. Arrieta has no Jon Lester-type issues throwing to bases, but runners went 23-for-26 stealing off him this season, including 8-for-9 in the six games paired with Contreras.
Truth is, Arrieta probably has a better chance to thrive than Tomlin but so what. Francona will get Tomlin out of there as soon as he sniffs trouble. The Indians just have that swag about them, even in losing that the Cubbies had all season but don’t have right now. If we’re sticking to playing value, Cleveland’s chances of finishing it off tonight is at the very worst 50/50 so therefore the Indians must be played.
That said, we’re passing on this game because we have Chicago (-105) to win the World Series and we’ll just hope they pull through tonight to set up a Game 7. We’re recommending Cleveland based on value but will have to sit it out.
SPORTS WAGERS
Sacramento +4½ over MIAMI
Sacramento kicked off a five-game road trip in Atlanta last night and failed to cover in a 106-95 loss to the Hawks. The Kings were on the wrong end of a lopsided battle at the line, giving up 47 free shots to just 19 of their own. That kind of discrepancy in fouls is nearly impossible for any team in the NBA to overcome. Sac-Town actually took a two-point lead into the fourth quarter but with both Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins in foul trouble, the Kings' offense sputtered. Despite the 30 fouls called against Sacramento, it was still anyone’s game into the fourth quarter. The George Karl era is over in Sacramento, which is a good thing, as Dave Joerger has come over from Memphis and the Kings appear to be buying in. The contentious relationship between Cousins and Karl last season was a major distraction but when Cousins is dialed in, as he appears to be right now, he’s among the elite players in the game. Tonight, the Kings take a big step down in competition to face a Miami Heat team that is a shell of it's former self.
The Heat chose center Hassan Whiteside over their franchise player Dwayne Wade this offseason by offering the young big man a four-year deal worth almost $100 million. Whiteside had a breakout season last year but he can't do it all by himself and we already have some concerns about his ability to stay healthy. Miami hung around with the Spurs on Sunday and even had a one point lead midway through the fourth before Whiteside was sidelined with cramps. He's a beast but the Heat are a one-man show and he's killing himself on both ends of the floor all game long. With very little support, we don't like the Heat's chances to close out games. They also blew a 19-point second half lead to the Hornets at home last week.
The Kings were done in at the line last night but it's unlikely those free throw opportunities are going to be as lopsided in this one. Miami ranks 24th in the league in free-throw attempts and are shooting just 66% from the line. The Kings have a renewed energy and losing the way they did last night should have them chomping at the bit to get back on the court in this, the second game of that aforementioned trip. Superior team in a good state of mind taking back points gets this call.
Buster Sports
Edmonton at Toronto
Play: Over 5.5
These two clubs are up in coming teams in the NHL and they both have potential new superstars playing for them in Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, who were the last two number 1 draft picks respectively. McDavid and the Oilers have been playing great hockey to start the year and they lead the Pacific Division with a solid 7-2 start to the year. The Leafs season has not started so well but they are a very young team and have a promising future. Tonight the whole hockey world will be watching when these two young guns play each other and it is going to be end to end action. The Leafs lead the league in shots on goal with 34.7 per game and the Oilers are averaging over 3 goals a game so we see a few goals being scored tonight in what will be a matchup for all hockey fans to see. Last year McDavid had 5 points in a 5-2 Edmonton win and we see a similar result here. Edmonton 5 Toronto 4.
Alex Smith
Nashville at Colorado
Play: Over 5.5
Two Central Division foes clash in the Mile High City tonight as the Colorado Avalanche host the Nashville Predators. These two clubs are currently headed opposite directions with Nashville, picked by some as a dark horse to win this division, currently in last place with a 2-5-1 record while Colorado, under the leadership of new coach Jared Bednar, is hanging around 4th place with 8 points at 4-3. The Avalanche open up a four-game stretch versus division opponents starting with this evening's contest. Center Matt Duchene leads the club with five goals and a pair of assists over seven games while defensemen Tyson Barrie and Patrick Wiercioch each have four assists, tied for second behind forward Nathan MacKinnon who has five. In goal, Semyon Varlamov has lost three of his last four starts but has a respectable 2.82 GAA and .909 save percentage. Nashville is struggling on the defensive end with goaltender Pekka Rinne allowing 18 goals in his six starts (1-4-1). The Preds' penalty killing unit has also been poor, yielding nine goals which ranks third worst in the league. On the power play, however, Nashville is tops in the NHL with a 35.7% conversion rate (10 goals). Veteran winger Mike Fisher paces the club with three power play goals and Ryan Johansen has picked up four assists. Both clubs need to move forward as the calendar turns to November, and with a pair of struggling goaltenders battling each other, this contest should showcase a good amount of offense. Play it over.
Wunderdog
Edmonton @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto -105
Young Edmonton begins a five-game road trek here, off a 2-0 home loss to Ottawa as -155 chalk. The Oilers are on a 22-56 run on the road, plus 19-49 when their opponent allows five goals or more in their previous game. Toronto has home ice, with a winning home record. That includes wins over Boston and Florida. Young talent Auston Matthews ranks fourth in the league in shots on goal (36) and is tied for the NHL lead in goals. The Maple Leafs have converted 7-of-20 on the power play over the last seven games. Toronto has a fine offense, #12 in the league in goals scored, and sixth on the power play. The home team has won four straight when these teams clash and the Oilers are 2-7 in this building.