Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles +100
The Baltimore Orioles have lost three straight and will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today against the New York Yankees. That's especially the case after getting blown out each of the past two days, but that won't happen again with the edge they have on the mound today.
Kevin Gausman has held his own this season with a 3.92 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 23 starts. Gausman loves facing the Yankees, posting a 2.03 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in eight career starts against them. He has only given up 3 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings in three starts against the Yankees this season.
C.C. Sabathia got off to a good start this year, but he has since faltered. The left-hander is now 8-10 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 23 starts, including 2-7 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 11 home starts.
The Orioles are 6-2 in Gausman's last eight starts on 4 days of rest. The Yankees are 4-10 in Sabathia's last 14 starts on 4 days of rest. New York is 1-5 in Sabathia's last six home starts. The Yankees are 0-5 in Sabathia's last five home starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 1-6 in Sabathia's last seven starts vs. Baltimore.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers -1½ +125
Detroit is showing great value here on the run line in Sunday's series finale against the Angels. While the Tigers lost yesterday's matchup, they are still 5-1 over their last 6. They can't afford to lose a home series against a poor team like LA if they want to get into the playoffs, so expect a max effort here.
The biggest key to this one is the starting pitching matchup. Detroit will sent out the surging Anibal Sanchez, who is coming off back-to-back dominant outings. He allowed just 1 hit over 7 shutout innings at home against the Royals on 8/17 and followed it up by giving up just 3 runs in 7 innings at Minnesota in his last outing.
The Angels counter with Tyler Skaggs, who hasn't thrown the ball well at all of late. In his last 4 starts, Skaggs has allowed 19 runs (at least 4 in each start) on 29 hits and 11 walks in a mere 17 2/3 innings of work. I have a hard time seeing him turn it around against a Detroit offense that comes in hitting .298 with a .366 OBP as a team over their last 7 games.
Los Angeles is just 2-15 in their last 17 road games after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 and have lost these by an average of 2.3 runs/game. Tigers are 23-7 in their 30 games this season when listed as a favorite of -125 to -175.
Frank Jordan
San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: San Diego Chargers +6
San Diego has split their first two games of the preseason as they head to Minnesota who has jumped out to a 2-0 start. Minnesota won those two games on the road over Cincinnati 17-16 and Seattle 18-11, but now they play their first game in their new stadium, US Bank Stadium, and the biggest thing will be can they replicate the homefield advantage that the Metro Dome created with the impressive, thunderous crowd noise? The answer is yes, but not in the preseason as the fans will be fired up early on, but it will fade as the game moves along as it is still just preseason. San Diego has had some offseason issues in signing their top draft pick Joey Bosa out of Ohio State as the two sides can't get together on terms as far as signing bonus payout. The Chargers may have had that distract them in a loss to Tennessee 27-10, but the Titans have looked sharp and the Chargers bounced back last week with an impressive 19-3 win over Arizona. Rivers had just one series against Tennessee and did well going 2 of 3 for 64 yards and a TD pass. Rivers was rested last week as he played many snaps in the joint practices with Arizona. If he plays in this game it should be minimal once again as the Chargers are opting to rest rather than risk for Rivers. San Diego defense will be key as they scored the TD last week and the offense did well to get into plus territory for four field goals. Look for defense and special teams to win it once again for San Diego.
SPORTS WAGERS
Hamilton +167 over CALGARY
In his first game back after being on the sidelines for a year, Zack Collaros threw for 331 yards in British Columbia. The Tigercats would go on to lose that game, 45-38. In his second game back against the Riders, Collaros would throw for 421 yards in a 53-7 wipeout. Keep in mind that the ‘Cats had a huge lead throughout last week and therefore was more interested in moving the chains and killing the clock in the second half than they were about scoring points. The Tigercats barely broke a sweat last week and they’re coming off consecutive games in which they scored a combined 91 points. They also have an outstanding defense. Collaros and the ‘Cats offense will now play together for the third consecutive week and while expecting them to score 45 points every week is unreasonable, it could happen, as Hamiton’s offense, as it stands now, can trade punches and then some with any team in this league when the CFL’s best QB is healthy. In their last six quarters, the ‘Cats outscored opponents 78-20 and returned to the complimentary football that made them so dangerous through much of the last three seasons. The defense is getting stops and turnovers while the offense takes advantage of most opportunities. If that’s not enough, return man Brandon Banks gives them a dynamic ball carrier on special teams.
Meanwhile, the Stamps are coming off a 37-9 blowout win of their own last week against the B.C. Lions in the marquee matchup of the week. Every CFL fan watched that one but probably switched channels early in the second half because it was such a blowout. In a year in which the underdog has been king, Calgary has reeled off five wins in a row but let’s not get carried away here. Two of those victories were against Saskatchewan. One was against Winnipeg before Matt Nichols was handed the reins. Against the Riders two weeks ago, Calgary was outgained by 35 yards. Overall, the Stamps have been outgained in four of their eight games. We take nothing away from the Stamps, as they don't make many mistakes and they score points. However, this is a year in which every single team in the league besides the Stamps has shown some huge flaws. Calgary has yet to face what is in store for them here because Hamilton with Collaros running the show now becomes the least flawed team in the CFL. It’s now the Stamps turn to show their flaws. At worst, Hamilton has a 50/50 shot of winning here and while the points look appealing, the money line takeback looks even more appealing.
Bruce Marshall
Tigers -1½ +146
The Halos got a surprisingly good start on Saturday from Brett Oberholtzer, but don't expect the same today at Comerica Park from young Tyler Skaggs, who has been blasted in recent outings, allowing four or more runs in each of his last four starts (19 ER in 17 2/3 IP for a 9.68 ERA). Two straight quality starts by Detroit's Anibal Sanchez suggest we give the Tigers a look. 6
Wunderdog
Connecticut @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -3.5
Connecticut is flying high after upsetting might Minnesota Friday. Now they head out on the road to face a balanced Atlanta team that is second in the league in rebounding behind Angel McCoughtry and Elizabeth Williams. Atlanta has a strong record at home (8-4) and is the fifth seed in the East. The top four finishers gain first-round playoff byes, and because the initial two rounds of the postseason are single-elimination, the last thing the Dream wants to do is get into a winner-take-all situation. Atlanta gets Sancho Lyttle back from a foot injury. At the time of her injury, Lyttle led the league in steals at 2.2 per game and was fifth in rebounds at 8.5 per game. Atlanta crushed the Sun on the glass when they met last month at Connecticut, 41-24, and won the game 67-63 despite shooting just 35.4%. Atlanta has won four straight at home, and the Dream are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Sunday get-away games.
Dave Price
Seattle Mariners +107
The Seattle Mariners are only 2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the last wild card spot in the American League. After losing 2 out of 3 to the White Sox in this series, they'll be hungry to square it with a win in Game 4 Sunday. I like the price we are getting with them here as I believe they had the advantage on the mound. Taijuan Walker sports a 4.14 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Carlos Rodon is 4-8 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in 21 starts for the White Sox. Walker is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Chicago. He pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in a 2-0 victory in his last start against the White Sox. Walker is 10-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game lifetime. The Mariners are 14-4 in their last 18 games following a loss. Seattle is 9-2 in Walker's last 11 starts vs. AL Central. The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 games following a win.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +124 over MIAMI
The Marlins have scored three runs or less in six of their past seven games. They rolled a goose egg yesterday so they’ll come into this game squeezing their bats a little bit tighter while facing one of the more under-the radar pitchers in the game. Luis Perdomo has shown very good swing-and-miss ability (11.3% swing and miss %), a mark that gives his 7.1 K’s/9 significant upside potential. He has been victimized by a 42% hit rate against RH bats. Perdomo also has been saddled with a subpar 66% strand rate and inflated 19% hr/f. That cannot last because Luis Perdomo has the highest groundball rate (62%) in MLB among pitchers with 90 or more innings pitched. Perdomo has filthy stuff but he also has the most misleading ERA (6.24) in the business. That ugly ERA makes him a premium buy-low target here.
Justin Nicolino makes his first MLB start since July 7 after being sent down to Triple-A New Orleans. Nicolino gets this start only because Andrew Cashner was scratched due to a blister on his finger. In 12 starts this season, Nicolino has two starts of the quality variety. In 64 frames at this level prior to being sent down, Nicolino had a brutal BB/K split of 16/30. A K-rate this low can’t sustain any starter over time. Nicolino has a 5% swing and miss rate, a 1.53 WHIP, a 5.77 xERA and no redeeming skills whatsoever. Frankly, there is nothing to like about the Marlins here. They’re struggling miserably offensively, they’re not in good form and they have a terrible starting pitcher going. By contrast, the Padres continue to pay off as a dog, they possess a very good under the radar offense and they have a dynamic power arm working the mound.
Tampa Bay +101 over HOUSTON
The day we refuse to take back anything with Chris Archer against Doug Fister is the day we’ll send this keyboard to Cooperstown and call it a career. Dog Fister is a soft-tossing right-hander that has walked 50 batters in 151 innings while striking out 101. His fastball sits at 86 MPH. Fister’s swing and miss rate is 6%. Fister relies on luck to get through games and he’s received it with an 86% strand rate over his past 10 starts. That’s a rather remarkable number when you consider he can’t get out of jams on his own because of his low swing and miss rate. Remember, Fister limped into free agency with more lost velocity, compounded by a month-long forearm injury. He spent most of August last year in the Nationals bullpen. Fister’s surface stats (3.59 ERA) suggests he has good skills but he does not and you may want to see them first before spotting a tag with him against the Chris Archer.
Justin Verlander was a -190 favorite over Ricky Nolasco on Friday. R.A. Dickey is a -180 favorite over Kirk Gibson today. We can assure you that this is a bigger pitching mismatch than the aforementioned other two, not to mention dozens more games this season. Chris Archer has posted some of the widest home/road splits of any starter so far in 2016. He has a sharp 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home, compared to a rough 5.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road. Those misleading road surface stats are the reason Archer is a pooch here. Before you use that split to pass on him here, consider the following. Archer’s skills have nearly been identical at home and on the road. The difference is in luck-driven numbers. A high 36% hit rate, low 64% strand rate and high 22% hr/f have conspired to sabotage his road stats. Archer has 192 K’s in 162 innings and the Astronauts have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. There's some good road positive regression potential here.
SPORTS WAGERS
JACKSONVILLE -1½ over Cincinnati
The Bengals are 1-1 in the preseason and really are not in any desperate need of anything here. Cincinnati is a big favorite to have another good year and make the playoffs. They’ll sell out every home game and they’ll feature a bunch of dynamic players. The final two weeks are all about staying healthy. Furthermore, Marvin Lewis appears to put much more emphasis on Week 4 than he does on Week 3. Lewis is 4-9 in his career in Week 3 but 10-3 in Week 4. This game now becomes all about the Jaguars.
If this truly is the dress rehearsal for the regular season, we should not be surprised to see the Jaguars take their rightful place as a team nobody wants to bet on. They are 0-2 this preseason and are not very appealing as a favorite in any scenario, which leaves them undervalued here in what could be considered a “must win” game at home. Even though they are the only team in town, the Jags struggle to sell seats locally after years of losing and not making the playoffs. Florida is a college football state first so entertainment dollars are not at a premium. With much of the top tier of their stadium covered, the Jags still only fill their modified 64,000 seats 90% of the time which is 27th of 32 teams. Now Jacksonville has a chance to create interest in this nationally televised game. For Cincinnati, being featured nationally is nothing new, as we see them four, five or six teams a year, every year. We trust it is much more important to Gus Bradley and the Jags ownership to create some optimism in the market than it is to Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. Preseason games are unimportant in so many ways but for the Jags, this is without question the preseason game that holds importance, not only because they’re 0-2 but because it is a rare game in which they are featured nationally. That figures to jack up this unrecognizable squad and it jacks us up as well to get behind them here.
Bill Marzano
Royals at Red Sox
Play: Royals
I really like the KC Royals in this game vs the Boston Red Sox...I think the Royals are worth a shot again today after getting clobbered last night with their best pitcher on the mound...Y.Ventura is pitching well right now and in good form, he should keep his team in this game...he is 3-0 over his last four starts...the Red Sox have dropped E.Rodriguez has six home starts.
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -101
Danny Salazar has a good record of 11-5 but much of it can be attributed to some early season success and good run support. Since July 4, which included a stint on the disabled list, Salazer has allowed 31 runs (30 earned) and 44 hits in only 29 innings pitched. Oakland pounded him for six runs and eight hits in four innings on Tuesday as Cleveland lost 9-1 to the Athletics. Salazar gave up six runs in two innings against Minnesota on Aug. 1 and his August ERA is 19.29. Derek Holland made a successful return from the disabled list allowing one run and four hits in six innings against Cincinnati although the Reds won the game 3-0. Holland has pitched six innings against the Indians this year and gave up one run. Texas is 41-21 at home and has won seven of the last 10 meetings after last night's 7-0 win.