Bruce Marshall
St. Louis -1.5 +120
St. Louis catches Milwaukee at the right time, as the Brewers were just swept in a four-game series at home by the surging Pirates. The Cards, better on the road than at home all season, have to hit the accelerator right now to make their playoff run, and Monday starter Carlos Martinez has been very sharp in his last two starts, allowing just 2 runs and 8 hits over 15 IP in a pair of wins over the Astros and Mets.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line against the Pittsburgh Pirates, as the National League Central rivals meet in Chicago.
Arrieta improved to 10-2 with a 2.99 ERA on the road after his last outing, and now gets to return to Wrigley Field, where he is 6-3 with a 2.18 ERA. He makes his fifth start against the Pirates, whom he's 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against, in four games.
Brault, meanwhile, will be recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis to take Gerrit Cole’s scheduled turn in the rotation, and this is one helluva spot to step in. The left-hander has made just two starts for the Bucs this season, and will struggle here today.
5* CUBS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play release is the Jays and O's to head Over the total at Camden Yards.
We will start with the fact 6 of the last 8 in the season series between these A.L. East rivals have landed Over the total.
Throw in the fact Toronto just scored 32 runs in their 3 game series against Minnesota - all 3 games playing Over! - and are on an overall 5-2-1 Over run their last 8, and there is a strong chance the Blue Jays will be slugging once again tonight against Wade Miley.
Miley has not helped the Baltimore rotation all that much since coming over from Seattle, as he owns a bloated 11.45 ERA over his last 3 starts - all of the starts landing Over the total.
His counterpart Marco Estrada has lost his way a bit as well, as his ERA for his last 3 starts stands at 8.36 and all 3 of those starts have also landed Over the total.
Looks like the offense is to go-with tonight to me.
Toronto-Baltimore Over the total.
5* TORONTO-BALTIMORE OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 110-88 run with free picks: Chicago at DETROIT (-1', -110).
The STORYLINE in this game today - Interesting American League Central series here, with the boys from Motown in Chi-town to start the week. And while the Tigers are trying to stay significant in the division race, the White Sox have won six of eight and begin a stretch of 21 straight against AL Central foes.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The pitchers are the thing to look at in this game, as the Tigers' Matt Boyd is in after throwing six quality innings with seven strikeouts for the win, improving to 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA in eight starts and one relief inning since rejoining Detroit’s rotation 50 days back. Meanwhile, Chicago's James Shields has struggled all season to stay consistent, and has an 11.20 ERA in his last two trips to the hill.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Boyd and Shields. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
4* TIGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Mariners as the big dog to topple the Rangers in tonight's series opener.
Yu Darvish hit his first major league home run in his last start (at Cincinnati), but he didn't pitch particularly well, as he allowed 5 runs - 3 of them earned - in his 6 innings, and he also walked 5!
Hisashi Iwakuma has dropped his last pair of starts, but he still has allowed 3 runs or less in 5 straight starts, and 8 of his last 9 overall.
The Mariners have hit the skids of late, and they really need a sweep here in Arlington to be viable once again.
Look for Seattle to take the first tonight.
2* SEATTLE
Jeff Alexander
Dodgers -120
I'll take my chances on the Dodgers as a small road favorite against the Rockies tonight. LA has won 6 of 8 and have the offensive fire-power to put up a huge number at Coors Field. The Dodgers also have the edge on the mound in this one with Kenta Maeda going up against Jon Gray. Maeda is 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 12 road starts this season. That includes two outings at Coors Field, where he has held the Rockies to just 2 runs on 7 hits in 12 innings of work. Gray has an ugly 5.25 ERA in 11 starts at home and comes in struggling with a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Steve Janus
Twins vs. Indians
Play: Under 9
Play Under - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) - after 3 straight games with no home runs, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. This system is 38-10 (79%) against the total since 1997.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +118
We are getting a great price on the hottest team in baseball in the Kansas City Royals at home tonight against the New York Yankees. The Royals have won seven consecutive series while going 17-4 in the process, creeping within 5.5 games of the Indians in the AL Central and 3 games of the Orioles for the second wild-card spot. Tonight's starter is Dillon Gee, who has performed well of late, giving up only 4 earned runs and 11 base runners over 12 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts. Gee sports a 3.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. New York. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 25 starts this year, including 2-6 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 12 road starts. He does not deserve to be the favorite in this matchup. Pineda has given up 12 earned runs over 17 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts against Kansas City. The Royals are 40-21 at home this season and 17-4 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
Mike Anthony
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Miami Marlins -156
Jose Fernandez is the stud of this Marlins team as they fight for the playoffs. He is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts against the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero makes his first start of the season for Mets. Montero was 4-6 with a 7.20 ERA in 16 Triple-A starts this season. I think the Miami bats will get to him on the big stage. This is a pitchers ballpark and I like the MARLINS to get the win here on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT-1½ +105 over Chicago
Prior to the 2015 season, Matt Boyd was a 6’3”, 215-pound finesse lefty that moved quickly through the Blue Jays' minor league system since being drafted in the sixth round in 2013. Armed with a low-to-mid 90s mph fastball, a mid-70s curve, and low 80s change, none of Boyd’s pitches graded out as plus despite a 9.3 K’s/9 rate in the minors. Boyd mostly got by on deception rather than stuff, though his fastball has developed into an above-average pitch and he can hold his velocity deep into games. Boyd is now starting to thrive, as all his metrics are trending in the right direction. Boyd’s fastball is up to 92 MPH with regularity. He can change speeds with ease. He has 26 K’s over his past 30 innings and he’s also throwing more strikes. Boyd’s first-pitch strike rate is up from 60% on the year to 64% over his past seven starts. In his last start he only walked one batter through six full. His groundball rate has also risen from a low 32% prior to this year to a serviceable 40% over his last eight starts. Matt Boyd is getting progressively better with each passing month and he’ll now face a South Side team that might have to score seven or more times to beat us.
Enter James Shields, our favorite fade because he’s the worst starter in MLB. Shields’ continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He’s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well when he takes the mound. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they’ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields’ putrid 33%/48% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in, he’ll be taken yard again and probably more than once. Shields’ has given up 11 jacks in his last four starts covering a mere 15 frames. His BB/K split on the year is a laughable 60/97 in 143 innings. When James Shields pitches and you can fade him without laying juice, it is highly recommended to do so because when he pitches, his team loses far more often that it wins and it’s almost always by more than one run.
BALTIMORE +123 over Toronto
It’s been a coast-to-coast-to-coast year for Wade Miley. After toiling for the Red Sox in 2015, Miley was traded to the Mariners in December, and then again to the Orioles at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Miley’s not exactly shined for Baltimore, posting a 9.53 ERA in four starts. Miley has not had an ERA under 4.30 since 2013 but his skills are essentially the same now as they were then. In other words, Miley shows he’s pitched at this level for years. His xERA shows that he's done better than his ERA indicates but his strand rate isn’t helping. He’s not doing enough to stand out. Other than the 2014 outlier, Miley's K-rate has been in the upper-6 range for years. Miley does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground but he’s also been hurt by hr/f this year. The change in venue doesn’t exactly help; while Safeco played neutral, Camden Yards enhances LH HR by 37%. Miley looks like an innings-eater at this point and his 9%/39% dominant start/disaster start split shows he’ll post an occasional gem, but there also will be a ton of clunkers. Wade Miley is not exactly the type of pitcher we like to get behind but Baltimore’s bullpen is superior to Toronto’s and we suspect the pens might have a say in this one.
The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep over the Twinkies in which they scored 32 runs combined. The three-game sweep has this market forgetting all about the Jays losing two of three to the Angels prior. This weekend, Jose Bautista returned, Josh Donaldson was whacking balls out the park and the Jays played to a packed house all weekend long. It was a fun weekend for the Jays and their fans but once again, Toronto’s stock is way higher than it should be. Lost in those three wins was Toronto allowing the Twins to score 21 times. If not for Minnesota’s horrible bullpen, we might be talking about a Jays five-game losing streak to the Angels and Twins, as Minnesota blew leads in all three games, including a three-run and four-run lead in the final two.
We kept insisting that Marco Estrada’s run of success was fueled by luck and many of you kept insisting we were wrong. We kept responding by saying it was not an opinion, but fact that Marco Estrada’s two years of remarkable numbers was mostly luck and at some point luck runs out. While we are just three starts into Estrada’s inevitable regression, chances are he’ll NEVER see numbers anything close to the numbers he put up over the past two years so let’s go over this one more time. Estrada is constantly behind in the count. His first-pitch strike rate of 54% is one of the lowest among starters. That’s significant because MLB hitters are batting .267 when the count is 1-0. When the count is 0-1, they are batting .178. Estrada’s 47% fly-ball rate is also one of the worst among starters. That assures us of a weak hr/f rate, which Estrada has (11%). All those balls hit to the warning track are no longer being hit to the warning track. Instead, they are going over the fence. Estrada has been tagged for six jacks over his last three starts covering 14 innings. He’s also given up 22 hits and walked seven batters over those aforementioned 14 frames. Estrada’s strand rate during his remarkable (lucky) run was 86%. Over his past three starts that strand rate has normalized to 71%, which is just below league average. Estrada is not in a slump. He's still throwing 87 MPH on his lifless fastball. He’s pitching exactly the same now (8.28 ERA over his last three starts) as when he pitched to an ERA of 2.92 over his first 19 starts or when he didn’t crack the Jays or Brewers rotation two and three years ago respectively. The difference is luck and Estrada’s has run out.
Dwayne Bryant
Toronto at Baltimore
Play: Over 10
This Orioles lefty versus Blue Jays righty matchup sure looks like the recipe for a ton of runs to be scored tonight in the hitter's park known as Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Against lefties, Toronto ranks ties for 2nd in wRC+ and #4 in wOBA. Against righties, Baltimore ranks #3 in wRC+ and #2 in wOBA.
Toronto starter Marco Estrada has gotten rocked for 11 runs on 15 hits (FIVE homers) in his last two starts, lasting a total of just nine innings.
Since coming over from Seattle, Baltimore's Wade Miley has allowed at least four runs in three of his five starts.
Both bullpens are in horrible current form.
Bryan Leonard
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +136
Nice home dog payback here with the Brewers with Zach Davies on the hill. He’s been quite the addition for a Milwaukee team that has a bright future on the horizon. We rank the starting pitching in the contest to be equal with the Cards having slight edges in the bullpen and offensively. But Milwaukee at home hits righties just as well as the Cards do on the road. Which gives us a nice plus money edge in a game that should be lined in the -115 area.
Buster Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +220
The Pirates are fresh off a 4 game series sweep in Milwaukee on the weekend and now enjoy a short road trip down to Chicago to face the best team in baseball in the Cubs. The Cubs are coming back home off of a 9 game road trip, coming in from the West Coast. This is a great situation to play the HUGE underdog Pirates tonight. The starting pitchers are for the Pirates LH Steven Brault (0-1, 3.60 ERA) and he goes up against the Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (16-5, 2.62 ERA) Brault will make another spot start for the Pirates tonight and he has done well in his previous two starts. Arrieta is the reason for the big price on Chicago tonight but the Pirates hammered him in their last meeting. They struck for 6 runs over 6 innings against Arrieta. That will give them confidence going into tonight's game against one of the leagues best. The Pirates are hot and they need this game to keep fighting for that wildcard playoff spot. Yesterday in our premium plays we gave out Oakland which were a plus 151 dog and they had a bunch of intangibles in their favor. Tonight we are getting plus 220 with the Pirates. They also have a bunch of intangibles in their favor, so we will be putting at small portion of our bankroll on the Pirates. The Pirates are 8-0 in their last 8 road games and the streak continues tonight.