Big Al
Cleveland vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -104
If Indians RH starter Trevor Bauer isn't the most inconsistent pitcher in baseball the last several years, then he's pretty close to it. Bauer can look like a Cy Young ace one night, and an inexperienced rookie the next. Unfortunately for him, it's been much more of the latter this season. Bauer's biggest problem is simple -- control. He simply walks to many batters to be an effective #2 or #3 starter. Bauer has seen his ERA rise to a personal high this season since he became a full-time starter (4.79), while his walk rate continues to be around 3.3. Going into Fenway to face a red-hot Boston offense is likely not the way to try to turn his season around. Heading into their Sunday night game, the Sox had won nine of their last 10, thanks to some healthy run-scoring. They will send RHP Doug Fister to the hill for his 10th appearance and seventh start since joining Boston in late June. Fister's overall numbers aren't very good, but he's thrown back-to-back quality starts and could be poised to finish the season strong. Lifetime he's 6-4 with a 3.07 ERA against the Tribe.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +181 over CHICAGO
Asher Wojciechowski has appeared in 14 games for the Reds this season with eight of those 14 appearances being out of the ‘pen. He enters this start with an ERA of 4.23 after 45 frames. Wojciechowski struggled as an early season replacement starter, yet was very effective in a multiple-inning relief role. He had allowed only two earned runs in 16.2 innings of relief with a remarkable BB/K split of 5/20. He has a big, strong, and durable frame and can fire his fastball into the 91-95 mph range. He generally throws strikes with his well-commanded fastball and counters it with a solid slider and average change-up. Wojciechowski keeps the ball low in the zone and induces a fair amount of groundballs. At Louisville this season, Wojciechowski started five games and struck out 35 batters in 30 innings with an oppBA of .204. For the Reds, he’s struck out 46 while walking just nine in 45 frames. His first-pitch strike rate is elite and so is his BB/K ratio. Wojciechowski is making a serious bid to be a mainstay in this Cincinnati rotation for the remainder of this year and into next season. With an ERA/xERA split 0f 4.23/4.09, he’s a starter to keep close tabs on because of his outstanding profit potential right now.
You will pay large to back Jose Quintana and the Cubbies here. When he pitched for the White Sox for years, Quintana was considered an average pitcher that was priced like one. Now he gets traded to the Cubbies and suddenly the media and most publications make him out to be an elite pitcher and he’s priced like one. There is not a team in the majors that wouldn’t like to have a guy or two like Jose Quintana. Dude will go out there every five days and give it everything he has. He’s proven to be durable and reliable but what he hasn’t proven is that he’s capable of dominating a high percentage of the time. Quintana is the same pitcher he was when he was playing on the South Side, which is an average pitcher that has just as good a chance of losing as he does of winning.
Quintana’s first-pitch strike rate remains strong, but his percentage of pitches in the zone (Zone%) has slipped to a little below average. He's striking batters out at a career high rate, but his swing and miss rate of 10% does not support that high strikeout rate. Expect his K-rate to drop in the final six weeks to his career level. This is the second straight year that his fly-ball rate has been a little higher than usual and his home run per fly-ball rate has jumped this season as well, leading to a 1.3 hr/9. He's already matched a career high with 19 homers allowed to RHB and his new home park increases right-handed home runs by 16 percent, so the issues with the long ball may not completely go away. Quintana has been a model of consistency in recent years but has been a disappointment to this point in 2017. Again, his skills haven't wavered much at all but he’s priced like he’s Madison Bumgarner. At Wrigley, Quintana’s ERA/xERA split is 7.36/5.99 and the Reds are not an easy out.
MIAMI -1½ +148 over San Francisco
Lots to like about the Marlins here. First, they’re coming off a three-game sweep over the Rocks and have now won five straight at home with the first two games of that streak being victories over the Nationals. Secondly, the Giants are coming off a long, drawn out weekend series against the Nationals in which they had to endure an extremely long rain delay on Saturday (five hours) before the game was finally cancelled. To make up for it, the Giants played a long double header on Sunday that started at 1:30 PM and ended roughly nine hours later. They’ll now travel to play a lesser team in a ¾ empty stadium and it would not surprise us one bit if their focus was off. Furthermore, the Giants will face a lefty here in Adam Conley and they own the third worst OPS in the majors against southpaws.
San Francisco will send out Ty Blach here. He's posted a 2.98 ERA over his last seven starts, while lasting at least six innings in each one but it’s all a mirage. Blach is striking out less than a batter every other inning, and his swing and miss rate (6%) is extremely low. Even during his aforementioned hot stretch, his K-rate was subpar. Blach does do a great job of keeping the walks to a minimum, as he has walked more than two batters just twice in 19 starts. An above average Zone% and first-pitch strike rate suggest he'll remain strong in that area of his game. However, now that he’s become more familiar, the opposition will go up there swinging, knowing that he’s going to be around the plate with weak stuff. His ground ball rate is league average but he's benefited from making 12 of his 19 starts at AT&T Park, which reduces home runs more than any other park in the majors. Blach has been putting up some strong numbers lately thanks to a combination of stellar control. great fortune and the extreme pitchers' park he calls home. His complete lack of swing and miss stuff keeps his ceiling very low, though, and leaves his margin for error razor thin. Blach’s success cannot last over an extended period of time because he’s simply been one of MLB’s luckiest starters and so we'll continue to fade hm.
Baltimore -1½ +137 over SEATTLE
We faded Yovani Gallardo in his last start in Oakland and ended up ripping up our ticket but that’s not going to deter us from sticking with the plan because Gallardo is a blowup waiting to happen. Gallardo’s surface stats do not reveal just how bad he truly is. Over his last three starts, you’ll see a 4.20 ERA but the truth is underneath the surface, where Gallardo’s xERA over those three starts was 7.78. Over his last 21 innings, covering five starts, Gallardo has walked more batters (12) than he’s struck out (11). His 4% swing and miss rate since returning to the rotation is putrid. His WHIP is poor, his batted ball profile is poor and his overall skills are not even replacement level anymore. He’s pitching at this level only because the Mariners have to pay him 9M this year.
The Orioles have tremendous value here at -113 or in that range but if we thought for a second that is was going to be that close, we’d be looking elsewhere. This is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions. Kevin Gausman, despite his atrocious start to the season, has been magnificent the last five weeks. In seven starts from July 2 onward, he’s posted a 3.24 ERA, supported peripherally by a 2.81 xERA with 11.4 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings. The strikeout rate is fueled by a 15% swinging strike rate, which has come consistently, ascending into double-digit percentages in all seven starts (and in eight of his last nine). His strikeout-to-walk differential (K-BB%) by month: 2.0%, 8.8%, 9.2% and 23.4%. Meanwhile, Gausman’s inducing ground balls almost half the time (49.5% GB). Increased usage of his splitter and its 22.4% whiff rate has helped, but all three (four, five, six) of his pitches recorded double-digit whiff rates in his latest seven starts. Gausman’s dominance has largely gone unnoticed because of his downright repulsive first half and he’ll now oppose one of MLB’s worst starters. If in-game variance doesn’t work against the Orioles here, this ticket will cash. Play Baltimore on the money line if you like or play it on the RL with a takeback but play them because a bigger bargain you will not find.
Atlanta -1½ +210 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-32 + 14.55 units
Steve Janus
Tigers vs. Rangers
Play: Tigers +103
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This system is 85-45 (65%) against the money line since 1997.
Brandon Lee
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Play:Diamondbacks -144
Houston snapped their 5-game losing streak with Sunday's win over the Rangers, but it was another poor showing by the offense, as they managed just two runs. That's now 5 straight games where they have scored 4 or fewer runs. I'll take my chances the offense doesn't break out of their slump in tonight's showdown at Arizona with Dbacks ace Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke is a ridiculous 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 13 home starts. Houston is sending out Collin McHugh for just his 5th start of the season. Last time out was not good for McHugh, who allowed 7 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in just 5 1/3 innings against a bad White Sox lineup.
Doug Upstone
Giants vs. Marlins
Play:Marlins -144
You are probably going to see quite a few baseball bettors on San Francisco because of starter Ty Blach. However, here is something else you need to know. NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Giants, hitting.255 or less, against a NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.20 to 5.70, with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts are miserable 8-35 the last 20 years!
Dave Price
Royals vs. Athletics
Play: Royals +110
The Kansas City Royals are right in the middle of the AL wild card race. They still have an outside shot of catching the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central, too. This is a big series for them against the Oakland A's, who own the 2nd-worst record in the American League at 51-66. The Royals should not be dogs to the A's and Jharel Cotton, who is 5-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 17 starts, 2-5 with a 7.74 ERA in 9 home starts, and 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jake Junis returned to the rotation on August 6th and dominated, giving up just 1 earned run and 4 base runners in 8 innings of a 9-1 win over the Mariners. The Royals are 22-8 in their last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The A's are 3-8 in Cotton's last 11 starts.
Jack Jones
Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -131
The Colorado Rockies return home Monday in need of a victory after getting swept by the Marlins in Miami over the weekend. The Rockies are 35-21 at home this season, hitting .302 and scoring 6.2 runs per game.
The Braves are just 5-15 in their last 20 games overall with nothing but pride to play for down the stretch. Julio Teheran gets the ball and is 7-10 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in his last three starts.
Chad Bettis will be making his first start of the season for the Rockies. Bettis has gone 3-1 with a 3.99 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta, and the Rockies are 4-1 in those five games. The Rockies will be inspired by Bettis, who underwent chemotherapy on March 20, enduring 21 infusions in a nine-week period.
The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight road games. The Rockies are 20-8 in their last 28 home games, including 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Colorado is 13-1 in Bettis' last 14 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
John Martin
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Over 8½
This is a pretty low total for two below-average starting pitchers tonight in the Giants and Marlins game. Adam Conley is 1-2 with an 8.28 ERA in five home starts this season for the Marlins. Ty Blach is 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA in seven road starts for the Giants. The Marlins are 11-3 OVER vs. NL teams who are scoring 4 or fewer runs per game this season. Miami is 36-21 OVER with a total of 7 to 8.5 this season. San Francisco is 30-14-7 OVER in its last 51 games following a loss. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Conley's last nine home starts. The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Miami.
Brian Hay
Phillies vs. Padres
Play: Phillies +111
We have two bottom feeders facing off tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies will send righty Jerad Eickhoff to the hill tonight. Eickhoff has a 4.45 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He has pitched much better of late. The San Diego Padres have lost eight of the last eleven games. The Padres will use Travis Wood as the starter versus the visiting Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. Wood has a enormous 6.19 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. We will go with the better pitcher in Eickhoff and Philadelphia plus money as your Free Play for Monday.
Andre Ramirez
Yankees -1½
The New York Mets have been playing better of late and the Yankees are off a tough series against Boston, which could give the Mets an edge in game one of this series. It could, but it won’t. The Yankees really need to keep winning, not only to stay in the race for the American League East title, but to also keep them ahead of the challengers in the race for a wildcard slot. The Yankees are sending out Luis Cessa in this game and while he has struggled, they will still have an edge on the mound. Rafael Montero, who is 1-5 with a 6.40 ERA in nine games as a starter and the Yankees have averaged 6.49 runs per nine at home against righties. This may be the perfect pitcher for Aaron Judge to break out of his slump against. Look for the Yankees to take this one.
Jack Brayman
My free play for Monday is on the Miami Marlins against the San Francisco Giants.
The Miami Marlins have won three in a row, they're at home and Bryce Harper is hurt. The first two tie in to one another, but in the world does the third have to do with the Fish?
Simple, the National League East-leading Washington Nationals are 14 games in front of the Marlins, but without Harper, who knows what Washington will be like. So winning is essential for the Marlins, cause they could gain some ground.
Miami catches a Frisco team in from Washington, and that is 20-40 on the road.
The Giants are easily the most disappointing team in baseball, and will struggle in humid Miami tonight. Take the home team.
2* MARLINS
Brad Wilton
The Reds have followed 3 straight wins with losses in their last pair as they hit the Friendly Confines to start a new series with the division leading Cubs.
Chicago is on a 4-6 slide their last 10, and they have St. Louis breathing heavy down their necks for first place in the division standings, so look for a step-up effort from the Cubbies tonight.
Chicago is 20-7 at home the last 27 meetings with Cincinnati, and they did take the final 3 of a 4 game set back in May. All 3 of those wins came by 2 runs or better.
Asher Wojciechowski has won 2 starts in a row, but his ERA away from home stands at over 6, and he will be going against Jose Quintana who is winless over his last 3 starts.
Cubs due for a blowout win, and tonight is the night for it to happen.
Chicago by at least 2 runs.
3* CUBS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free pick for tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds, at the Chicago Cubs, for absolutely no rhyme or reason. It's a complimentary play and I looked for the biggest underdog on the entire card. This is what I found, so this is what you're getting.
Don't get me wrong, I have to find a little worth when doing it this way, and the one thing I can tell you is these two are National League Central rivals, and the Reds are the only team in the division not in the thick of the division-title hunt.
That alone is intriguing, cause Cincinnati loves to toy with the Cubs, and cause problems.
The Reds have enjoyed some success of late, with three wins in their past five games and eight victories over their last 14 games.
Chicago returns home after a series in Phoenix, and begins a 24-game stretch against teams that are under .500, as of now. If there was one game to expect a letdown, it's this one, as the Cubs could be in relax mode.
Take the road dog, as this looks like one of those "everything points to one side and is a sure thing" kinda loser. Don't get trapped by the obvious favorite on the board tonight.
1* REDS
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Colorado Rockies, minus chump change, against the Atlanta Braves. And in this game I want you listing Chad Bettis ONLY, as he is making his season debut.
Bettis was preparing for spring training but that was brought to an abrupt halt on March 10, when a regular cancer screening revealed some abnormalities. A biopsy showed the cancer had spread to his lymph nodes. Bettis began chemotherapy on March 20, had 21 infusions in a nine-week period, with his final treatment on May 16. Less than a month later, he was back with the Rockies working out.
Quite a remarkable story, and here he is today - less than five months after beginning chemo - ready to make his first start of the 2017 season.
He is 2-0 with a 4.61 ERA in three career games (two starts) against Atlanta, and I like him to dominate tonight.
5* ROCKIES
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie will be the Padres at home over the Phillies.
Both teams going nowhere this season, but for my money, prefer the team that is back at home against the team that just had to fly 3,000 miles on Sunday night to get into California.
The Padres do own a winning record at home at 29-27, while the Phillies are a woeful 19-41 on the road this season, and they just packed their bags for this flight having lost 3 of 4 over the weekend to the Mets.
San Diego did claim 2 of 3 off of Philly earlier this year when the teams met, but that loss does come at the hands of Jerad Eickhoff who is now 3-0 with an ERA of 2.00 for his career against the Friars.
Travis Wood has made 3 starts since coming over in a trade with Kansas City, and he has allowed 11 runs over his 16 innings of work. He will need to do a little better than he has been if the home team is going to win tonight.
With Philly sporting the worst record in the majors, look for them to be slow out of the gate in their first game of this west coast swing.
Pads the play.
1* SAN DIEGO