Wednesday 4/24/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Stephen Oh
UNDER 9 SAN FRANCISCO @ TORONTO | 4/24 | 4:07 PM EDT
Neither of these teams have figured out how to consistenly get runners across the plate -- the under is 14-7-2 in Giants games and 13-10 in Blue Jays contests. With two pitchers who can shut down struggling lineups starting, the Under hits in 66 percent of my computer simulations. Jump on the under (-120) for this one.
25-11 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +1301
3-0 IN LAST 3 SF O/U PICKS | +300
N.Y. YANKEES -105
N.Y. YANKEES @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/24 | 10:07 PM EDT
This is essentially even as far as oddsmakers are concerned, but my computer model strongly believes New York's piching staff will handle the Angels' batting order, while Felix Pena won't do the same with the Yankees' unit. New York may be banged up but it's won six of seven. Look for that trend to continue -- the Yanks win 61 percent of my simulations.
25-11 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +1301
26-17 IN LAST 43 NYY ML PICKS | +1098
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAA ML PICKS | +230
WASHINGTON +125
WASHINGTON @ COLORADO | 4/24 | 3:10 PM EDT
The Rockies have won seven of eight heading into Tuesday night's action, but my projections see a good matchup for the Nationals at Coors Field on Wednesday. It's not expected to be a good matchup for German Marquez, and Washington starter Anibal Sanchez does enough. The Nats win nearly 60 percent of my simulations, which at this big underdog price is an absolute steal.
25-11 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +1301
34-17 IN LAST 51 COL ML PICKS | +1927
14-8 IN LAST 22 WAS ML PICKS | +533
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Ben Burns
3*
Golden State - 13.5
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Spartan
3*
Philadelphia -110
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Stephen Nover
3*
Seattle +1.5(-135)
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Sleepyj
3*
Utah / Houston over 212.5
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Dave Essler
3*
Philadelphia / Mets over 8.5
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Sportsvipvegas 4/24
ST LOUIS -1 (+118)
DODGERS -1 (+112)
ANGELS -1 (+128)
SEATTLE (+161)
WASHINGTON (+146)
CINCY (+111)
ARIZONA (+111)
NYM -1 (+113)
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Greg shaker
3*
Pittsburgh / Arizona under 8
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Rocky Atkinson
3*
Toronto +115
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME ~ WEEK 8-1
Game: (961) Los Angeles Dodgers at (962) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Apr 24 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -109
View Analysis
PLAY: LA Dodgers -109 (good to -125)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Buehler and Hamels
The Dodgers ace hasn’t been at his best yet this season. And his solid outing in his last start came against a middling Cincinnati Reds lineup.
Buehler’s underlying metrics haven't wowed the first month of the 2019 season but today's matchup is favorable for the Dodgers offense and for Buehler. The Dodgers right-hander has seen a slight drop in his first strike percentage and his SwStr percentage. He has yet to be his best and is still getting the opposition out. Buehler is sporting a great 80% zone contact, his velocity is where it should be for Buehler and he is line for his best start of the season tonight at Wrigley.
Hamels early season success offers in the neighborhood of .25 cents of line favor tonight in Chicago. The Cubs lefty has been solid in his last three starts -- recording 19 strikeouts in 21 innings of work without issuing a free pass.
The three starts, versus a Miami team that is offensively challenged, a Los Angeles lineup that is arguably the worst offense versus left-handed pitching in the first month of the 2019 campaign and a Milwaukee Brewers batting order that had an exit velocity of 95-plus mph against Lester with most of those being unfortunately batted ball bad luck (hit at fielders), won't define Hamels when all is said and done this season.
Hamels has been a very good pitcher for over a decade. But his days of being elite are behind him. Since the start of 2017, Hamels has been very pedestrian, going 20-18 with a 4.03 ERA and a 7.8 K/9 rate. And the more accurate measure of who Hamels is and will be is his 4.56 FIP. And Hamels' zero walks over his last three starts is an aberration. His home run rate and his command have continued to digress over the last two-plus seasons command (1.3 HR/9 and 3.2 BB/9). Now 35 and with over 2,500 innings on his left arm, Hamels squares off against the best lineup he has faced this year and the one of the top-five pitchers in the National League in Buehler.
Note-- The Cubs have just a 95 wRC+ and .318 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -109
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Accu Picks
NBA
3* #517/518 Utah/Houston OVER 213
Rockdeman Sports
(MLB - going back to the Underdog of the Day) - New York Yankees +105
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB) - 2* Padres/Mariners Over 8
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Michael Rusk
Indians -180
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Tony Mejia
Dodgers/Cubs Under 8
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Kevin Rogers
Minnesota Twins +1.5 runs (+111)
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Kyle Markus
Boston Red Sox -210
NBA - Golden State Warriors -14
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Tim Wilkinson
NBA
Houston Rockets -8
Rockets/Jazz Under 213
MLB
Phillies -124
White Sox/Orioles Under 10
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Cleinsidersports
NBA
Jazz +8.5
MLB
Diamondbacks ML (+105)
Mariners/Padres UNDER 8.5
NHL
Hurricanes ML (+135)
Hurricanes/Capitals UNDER 5.5
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Adam Thompson
Washington +143
Toronto +105
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est nba
philadelphia phillies vs. New york mets
pick: Philadelphia phillies (-129)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est nba
utah jazz vs. Houston rockets
pick: Houston rockets -8 (-111)
risk: 11 units
10:30 pm est nba
los angeles clippers vs. Golden state warriors
pick: Golden state warriors -14.5 (-111)
risk: 11 units
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WUnderdog
MLB
Chicago Cubs +104 vs la dodgers.
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Golden State -14.5
3*
Carolina +125
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Goodfella
2*
METS/PHILLIES OVER 9
3*
ROCKETS/JAZZ OVER 212 (-120)
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Dirty Bear Sports from Cappertek
MLB:
ATL F5 -.5 +105 3 units
MLB Season: 19-18-2 51% -13.40 units
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