Sunday 6/9/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Ben Burns
3*(NHL)
St.louis -120
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Spartan
3*
Chicago Cubs -155
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Stephen Nover
3*
San Diego / Washington over 7.5
3*(NHL)
St.louis -114
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Dave Essler
3*
Colorado +1.5(-130)
2*
Detroit / Minnesota over 9
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Fezzik
2*
Boston +105
2*
Tampa Bay -120
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Paul Leiner
100* Rays -110
100* Royals -120
100* Over 9 Dbacks/Blue Jays
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Rocky Atkinson
2*
LA DODGERS -144
2*
Arizona -135
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Greg shaker
2*
Kansas City / Chicago Whitesox under 10
2*
Philadelphia / Cincinnati under 8.5
2*
Miami / Atlanta under 7.5
3*
Texas / Oakland under 11.5
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Cincinnati Reds at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jun 9 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-113)
View Analysis
Gray v. Nola
Wind blowing in toward 3rd base at 15mph or higher the whole game this afternoon in Philly and these 2 teams have combined for just 11 runs in the series first 2 games and the Reds alone have scored just 11 runs in all games combined since last Saturday. The Reds are already by far the most profitable Under play on the season as well...with +$1300 profit with Houston the next best bet with $660 profit in 2019.
Sonny Gray is about the most backable pitcher going these days and we have mentioned this ad nauseam in this space...it took him far too long to get an actual win...now he has 2...not that I really care but speaks to how good he's been and why it makes sense the Reds are such an Under play....combining his prowess with his offensive lineup's lack thereof.
Aaron Nola exploded for a disaster game last time out in San Diego...but his previous 7 starts combined he allowed merely 11 total runs and while he gets a terrible name as a "bum", "failure", "bust", etc....there was talk of Cy Young last season and talk of him being a real contending team's ace heading to 2019.
All this adds up to a really solid Under play and both previous series games featured lesser pitchers on both sides without the wind blowing in without the day game parameters as well...but a similar total...8.5 is great value today as I expect to see a ton of wasted at bats against these 2 and likely a 1-1 type game heading to bullpen action...
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Tim Wilkerson
Soccer
UEFA Nations League - Final Match (ESPN2, 2:45 p.m.)
Portugal vs. Netherlands
There are so many different soccer competitions around the world that it’s tough to keep track of them all. You can now add another competition to the list of National team tournaments as the UEFA Nations League Finals will take place on Sunday at the Estadio Do Dragao in Porto, Portgual. Portugal took advantage of a hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo to dismiss Switzerland 3-1 in the semifinals earlier in the week while The Netherlands used a pair of added time goals to eliminate England by an identical 3-1 margin in their half of the bracket. The soccer betting odds at BetOnline.ag are extremely close suggesting that this should be a very competitive matchup.
Portugal is the reigning European Champion but there’s some concern that the squad will be a bit too ‘long in the tooth’ to defend their title at Euro 2020. That’s difficult to consider with Ronaldo’s excellent play against Switzerland but age can catch up with even the best soccer team almost overnight. Before his three goal outburst against Switzerland it had been something of an extended scoring drought for Ronaldo who had not scored a goal for Portugal since the Group State of the 2018 World Cup. Even at the relatively advanced age of 34 he’s served notice that he’s an extremely dangerous adversary.
Ronaldo still has the skills, but like many other players throughout this competition he’s at the end of a grueling year of soccer. He’s an important part of Italian Serie A champion Juventus’ offensive attack and they’ve been extremely busy this year. Juvie was eliminated in the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia as well as the Champions League so he might not have the ‘wear and tear’ that some of his contemporaries have racked up this year at some point mental and physical fatigue has to be an issue.
While Portugal is an aging team hoping to hold on to their lofty status on the world soccer stage, this Netherlands team appears to be on the verge of regaining the same status as an international contender. They’ve not done well in recent international play so a victory in the first ever UEFA Nations League would be an accomplishment. On the road to this final they’ve defeated France, Germany and England and even without their opponents fielding their absolutely best lineup this is quite an accomplishment. The win over England wasn’t as comfortable as the final 3-1 scoreline would suggest—they almost lost the game near the end of regulation but the VAR decision waved off Jesse Lingard’s potential game winning score. Netherlands have won only 1 of their last four games in regulation.
Portugal has lost only once in the past eleven meetings with Netherlands with the setback coming in the most recent meeting—a 3-0 shutout in a 2018 friendly. The home team has a bit of an advantage with scheduling having played on Wednesday and not Thursday like Netherlands. Netherlands also needed extra time to get the win over England. That being said, their youthful lineup should bounce back nicely from that effort.
If there’s a concern about Portugal’s aging side it will be in the defensive corps. They’ve only kept a clean sheet twice in their past seven games and this could be an issue against a offensively potent Netherlands side. Ultimately, however, the home team should prevail in what will likely be a high scoring affair. There’s a nice menu of prop wagers at BetOnline.ag and that gives us several ways to play this contest.
BEST BETS
PORTUGAL TO LIFT TROPHY -140
PORTUGAL/NETHERLANDS OVER 2, 2.5 -119
PORTUGAL/NETHERLANDS BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE -130
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Kyle Markus
NHL Stanley Cup Finals Game #6
Last Time Out
Ryan O’Reilly and David Perron each scored goals and Jordan Binnington did a great job in goal with 39 saves as the Blues upset the Bruins with a 2-1 win in Game 5. O’Reilly scored in the second period and St. Louis went ahead 2-0 on Perron’s score. The Bruins pulled back within a goal when Jake DeBrusk found the net in the third period, but they could not score again.
Boston had way more shots than St. Louis but couldn’t capitalize on the vast majority of the chances. The Bruins pulled their goalie with about a minute to go and had several shots in the frantic final moments but could not tie the game. St. Louis has now won two straight games in the Stanley Cup Finals to get on the cusp of a championship.
Bruins captain Zdeno Chara suffered a broken jaw in Game 4 but he still was able to play in Game 5 despite the pain. Chara was one of the most used defensemen on the team, finishing with 16 minutes played. He wore a full face mask on the ice but didn’t finish with a goal or an assist as the Boston offense was held in check. He finished with a negative-1 plus/minus as St. Louis scored when he was on the ice.
While the injury is a serious one, Chara did not seem hindered and should be good to go for this Game 6 matchup. His presence is certainly a boost for the Bruins.
THE PICK
The Blues are heading home and have all the momentum, but in truth they were pretty lucky to come away with the victory in Boston. The Bruins need to get off to a strong start because if they fall behind, the St. Louis crowd is going to be whipped into a frenzy.
Boston has the superior firepower on offense and a player like Patrice Bergeron could help it get ahead early. If the Bruins can withstand the Blues’ energy early on they should be able to win this game and send it back to Boston for a do-or-die Game 7. This has been a fantastic series and it will go the distance with Boston claiming Game 6 in NHL wagering.
Game 6 Best Bet: Boston Bruins 4, St. Louis Blues 2
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Billy Coleman
MLB
3* #979 Arizona -135 (Ray)
Tim Wilkerson
St Louis Blues
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Stephen Oh
SEATTLE +130
SEATTLE @ L.A. ANGELS | 6/09 | 4:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:07 PM
My data sees the Mariners beating the Angels in 55 percent of simulations for their Sunday meeting, giving us a major overlay on the lucrative home underdog. Mariners starter Wade LeBlanc is 2-0 in his daytime starts and the Mariners are 6-2 behind him in his past eight road starts. The Angels are 0-6 when Trevor Cahill starts against AL West opponents.
81-51 IN LAST 132 MLB PICKS | +2914
9-2 IN LAST 11 LAA ML PICKS | +806
MILWAUKEE -182
PITTSBURGH @ MILWAUKEE | 6/09 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:02 PM
My numbers have the Brewers defeating the Pirates in a whopping 73 percent of simulations Sunday, making Milwaukee worth the play at the relatively hefty price. The Brewers have seen their offense pick up in winning the first two in this series by a 15-7 combined score. Brewers starter Chase Anderson has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his past 10 starts.
81-51 IN LAST 132 MLB PICKS | +2914
12-1 IN LAST 13 PIT ML PICKS | +1184
9-4 IN LAST 13 MIL ML PICKS | +535
ARIZONA -152
ARIZONA @ TORONTO | 6/09 | 1:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:50 PM
My numbers see the Diamondbacks beating the Blue Jays on Sunday in nearly 70 percent of simulations and by nearly two full runs in those victories. Arizona has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 14-2 and I see them finishing off the sweep behind lefty Robby Ray. He is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his past five road starts. Lay the price with Arizona.
81-51 IN LAST 132 MLB PICKS | +2914
35-21 IN LAST 56 TOR ML PICKS | +1472
22-14 IN LAST 36 ARI ML PICKS | +915
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Adam Thompson
WASHINGTON -155
WASHINGTON @ SAN DIEGO | 6/09 | 4:10 PM EDT
10:50 AM
The Padres aren't hitting the ball very well over the last two weeks, now they face Stephen Strasburg, who shut them down over seven innings earlier this year. Strasburg has been great on the road all season; opponents are hitting just .193 against home with two home runs. The Padres, meanwhile, are throwing a bullpen game, but the Padres are sporting a 5.63 ERA in June.
ARIZONA -141
ARIZONA @ TORONTO | 6/09 | 1:07 PM EDT
10:22 AM
The Blue Jays are hitting .208 on the year at home, the dead-last home-hitting team in MLB. And it hasn't gotten any better -- in June, they're batting .203, also worst in the majors. Arizona, meanwhile, not only is among the best hitting teams on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per game, it's crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .289 average and .856 OPS. I'll take Robbie Ray over Clayton Richard and Toronto's struggling bullpen, too.
9-5 IN LAST 14 ARI ML PICKS | +303
3-1 IN LAST 4 TOR ML PICKS | +105
PHILADELPHIA -139
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 6/09 | 1:05 PM EDT
10:11 AM
Sonny Gray has found his groove and he's been especially tough on the road. But the Reds' offense is in a major funk, averaging just 1.8 runs in June so far, hitting .193. They're also the worst road-hitting team in baseball for the entire year. Aaron Nola got crushed his last time out, but he's been more reliable at home over the last month-plus. In May, he was 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA. Expect him to regain his form against the struggling Cincy bats.
19-9 IN LAST 28 PHI ML PICKS | +933
5-4 IN LAST 9 CIN ML PICKS | +89
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+EV: MLB 4u: 963 Washington Nationals -114 (S Strasburg) (Untick C Paddack Must Start) (Sunday, June 9th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 960 Chicago Cubs -153 (A Wainwright | K Hendricks) (Sunday, June 9th)
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Dwayne Bryant
5% Atl/Mia under 7.5
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Cincinnati Reds at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jun 9 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-113)
Gray v. Nola
Wind blowing in toward 3rd base at 15mph or higher the whole game this afternoon in Philly and these 2 teams have combined for just 11 runs in the series first 2 games and the Reds alone have scored just 11 runs in all games combined since last Saturday. The Reds are already by far the most profitable Under play on the season as well...with +$1300 profit with Houston the next best bet with $660 profit in 2019.
Sonny Gray is about the most backable pitcher going these days and we have mentioned this ad nauseam in this space...it took him far too long to get an actual win...now he has 2...not that I really care but speaks to how good he's been and why it makes sense the Reds are such an Under play....combining his prowess with his offensive lineup's lack thereof.
Aaron Nola exploded for a disaster game last time out in San Diego...but his previous 7 starts combined he allowed merely 11 total runs and while he gets a terrible name as a "bum", "failure", "bust", etc....there was talk of Cy Young last season and talk of him being a real contending team's ace heading to 2019.
All this adds up to a really solid Under play and both previous series games featured lesser pitchers on both sides without the wind blowing in without the day game parameters as well...but a similar total...8.5 is great value today as I expect to see a ton of wasted at bats against these 2 and likely a 1-1 type game heading to bullpen action...
Game: (963) Washington Nationals at (964) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Jun 9 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Washington Nationals -155
Strasburg v. Perdomo
Luis Perdomo lost his spot in the rotation in the off-season and was relegated to the bullpen where he actually pitched an inning yesterday against the Nats. He only faced 3 hitters and struck one out but faced 3 solid hitters who will be ready today in Soto, Kendrick, and Dozier. All in all it's hard to imagine Perdomo pitches much and likely serves more as opener. But Scherzer just shut these guys down hard last night and Strasburg should have similar success....at least early in yet another spot Strasburg and the Nats pitching staff is being disrespected .
This is just such value with a low line here I will like also play the Nats -0.5 first 5 as well where the pay is better but riskier per se without the push possible. Hard to do anything but be ecstatic laying -150 with the Nats healthy improved lineup and super sabermetric stud Steve on tge bump
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MIT group
Yankees ml
Twins under
Padres over
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Boston-110
3*
Boston / st.louis over 5
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Platinum Sports
Twins -1.5
Cubs under
Dodgers ml
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Al DeMarco
Cubs RL+120
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Seabass :
700 bruins game over
300 Rays RL
400 reds
400 brewers RL
500 athletics RL
300 cubs
700 white Sox game under
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