Sunday 5/12/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Stephen Nover
2*
Boston / Carolina under 5.5
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Ben Burns
3*TOW
Denver / Portland under 213
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King creole
2*
Toronto -7
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Chris Davis
League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Manchester City at Brighton & Hove
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET
Best Bet: Under 3 ½ (-105), Both Teams to Score – No (-160)
The Citizens need three points to capture the 2018-19 Premier League title on Sunday and while many would’ve liked to see some drama, it’s highly unlikely. Manchester City could get tested early on the road, especially if Brighton scores – something it’s done in its last two games. City hasn’t been as explosive down the stretch, scoring just one goal in six of its last 10 wins. The pair have played twice this season, and City captured 1-0 and 2-0 wins. I believe this could turn out to be a 3-0 win for the visitor but probably less.
League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Everton at Tottenham
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET
est Bet: Under 2 ½ (+105), Under 1 ½ (+350)
Tottenham has owned this series recently, winning four straight games against Everton and they’ve put up plenty of crooked numbers by outscoring them 16-4 during this span. I don’t see another wild outcome, rather a tight match especially after Tottenham’s huge CL win at Ajax this past Wednesday. The Everton defense has been on fire, eight clean sheets in last 10 EPL matches. Hard to imagine either team scoring two goals and I’ll be cheering for the scoreless draw or 1-0 victory.
League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Wolverhampton at Liverpool
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET
Best Bet: Over 3 ½ (+160), Both Teams to Score – Yes (+105)
Wolverhampton has gone 2-1 with a pair of 2-1 victories in its last three meetings against Liverpool. Along with the revenge factor, Liverpool has an outside chance at the title if it wins and Man City draws or loses. I don’t see either of those results happening and I believe the Reds will play looser and put on an offensive show as it finds out its fate. Over the last three years, we’ve seen 9 teams score 4-plus goals in Matchday 38 and five clubs put up 5 or more. I’ll buy into the fireworks at Anfield on Sunday
League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Cardiff City at Manchester United
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET
Best Bet: Under 3 ½ (-120), Both Teams to Score – No (+100)
Tough season for the Red Devils and even tougher for Cardiff City, who have been relegated from the Premier League. This game is a formality and while the assumption is that both teams will have a go at it, I don’t see it. United beat Cardiff 5-1 in the reverse fixture and reports of youngsters receiving minutes for Manchester in the finale has me a bit skeptical. Cardiff’s offense (11 goals) has been very weak on the road and I don’t see them hitting the net in the finale.
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Tim Wilkerson
MLB - Toronto Blue Jays -118
NBA
Trailblazers/Nuggets Under 213.5
Philadelphia 76ers +6
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Big Al
5* raptors
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ROB VENO BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (521) Philadelphia 76ers at (522) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: May 12 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 209.0 (-110)
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baseball33
Los Angeles Dodgers -1
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Stephen Nover
2*
Boston / Carolina under 5.5
ADDED:
3*
Pittsburgh / st.louis over 8.5
2*
Philadelphia +6.5
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TONY FINN BASKETBALL PLAYS
FINN NBA WEST CONF PRIVATE PLAY (8-3)
Game: (525) Portland Trail Blazers at (526) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: May 12 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-105)
View Analysis
PLAY: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (good to -7)
4% game rating
(525) Portland Trail Blazers at (526) Denver Nuggets
Short and to the point in this Western Semi finale analysis. As this series has progressed into a one-game showdown the two most obvious variables play the deciding factors in this afternoon tilt at altitude. First for the visiting Trail Blazers their survival and advancement depend on the play of All-Star guard Lillard. As The Dame goes so go the Blazers. And while Lillard has had his moments in the last pair of games the fatigue evidence both from his pedestrian play in stretches to coach giving him pine time in important situations make him and his mates a very difficult group to back and one much easier to fade.
Nuggets head coach Malone has shown the fans, the media and the enemy his hand in this postseason card game. And because of such it might appear to be a vanilla game-plan, a Plane Jane way to attack what is easily the biggest stage the coach has been tested in his career, but how and who - he will scheme and play in this Game 7 - will be a rinse and repeat. There will be little to no rest, bench minutes, for Jokic.
The series ends and does so with a double-digit margin of victory for the best home court advantage in the league, by the Nuggets, on the Pepsi Center floor at a Mile High.
Portland has survived and advanced in the series due to their advantages with Jokic on the bench. Malone has already whispered in the ear of his Big to get a good night sleep because he can rest when he's old and retired. Malone will extend Jokic's minutes, as he did in Game 7 vs. San Antonio - and how he did in Game 3 of this series (Jokic played the entire second half and nearly every second of the four overtimes).
Game, Set and Match -- The Nuggets push the pace in the first half, use their superior backcourt depth, and have the Blazers huffing and puffing in the fourth and final stanza.
DENVER NUGGETS -5.5
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TONY FINN
BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN SUN MLB TOP TOTAL
Game: (965) Los Angeles Angels at (966) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: May 12 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 9 (good to 8.5)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Canning and Means
(965) Los Angeles Angels at (966) Baltimore Orioles
The Angels lack of quality pitching is their Achilles, that and their ineptness against left-handed pitching. Rookie starter Grif Canning has been their rotational best this season and that figures to continue against the O's on Sunday. this offseason. Canning tossed 5.1 innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts in Detroit this past Tuesday. In two starts (9.2 innings) his 4.66 ERA is somewhat due to batted ball luck. His 13:2 K:BB points to success against lineups that are less than middling like Baltimore.
Canning was in the 92-93 m.p.h. range versus Detroit with his four-seamer and will remain there with success his first time or two through the league... or when the return of Andrew Heaney is back with the club after his IL stint. It won't be a surprise to see him replace either/or Matt Harvey or Trevor Cahill.
John Means 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through five starts isn't sustainable but are supported by his 23% K, 6% BB, and 15% SwStr. His plus changeup makes him a tough matchup for right-handed heavy lineups. Means changeup is a plus pitch because it finds its way to the K-zone (40%) and gets hitters to chase it out of the zone (40%). The Angels have not faced the youngster at any point live and have a ridiculously poor .212/.295/.361 slash line versus southpaws this season.
Scheduled home plate umpire Nick Mahrley is new-school when it comes to strike zones. He has an expanded zone and his K:BB ration this year tops all umps at 3.64.
Under the Total of 9
ESPN SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL CASH 2-0
Game: (963) Milwaukee Brewers at (964) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: May 12 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago Cubs -130
View Analysis
PLAY: Chicago Cubs -130 (good to -145)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Chacin and Lester
(963) Milwaukee Brewers at (964) Chicago Cubs
A quick glance of tomorrow's day game lineup will find the depth of the cubs bench and bullpen offering over-the-top favor for the Northsiders. The Cubs can thank Chatwood and his four innings of relief in yesterday's 15 inning Cubbie win in combination with Hamels' seven innings of work to begin the game.
In addition take the Milwaukee player personnel out of the Brewery and throw a lefty at them and they are pedestrian drunk.
Milwaukee's road slash line of .226/.314/.386 ranks right there with the likes of the Miami Marlins, near the bottom of the NL offensive road stats. And while the Crew have a slash line of .262/.337/.481 against lefties on the season these numbers are what they are when they are swinging under the Miller Park roof. Proof of such is in the pudding... glance at the box score in yesterday's one run against Mr. Cole.
The Brewers are uber-dependent on being over-the-top offensive to succeed. And for those that want to argue with me on this I will make a single point that rests my case. When Chacin is a team's Opening Day starter then that club can't possibly be postseason worthy because of their starting rotation.
Chacin's success this season has come against sleepy offenses and injury depleted clubs. In addition right-handed heavy lineups. The dichotomy of Chacin's splits a season ago, righties vs lefties, was an absolute crime against sports bettors that don't dig deep. Chacin's slash line versus right-handed hitters was .178/.244/.284. Hence his middling success. This year it has not been as favorable; e.g. .235/.307/.426 and the result is his 5.03 ERA and near 5.00 xFIP.
The Cubs' lineup on Sunday night will be left-handed heavy and Chacin will be subject to batted ball luck. His lack of strikeouts subjects him to such and his last years surface numbers were a mirage. He outperformed his pay grade in nearly every category and benefited from a .250 BABIP well below his career .299 BABIP. His hard contact percentage a year ago was a career low... this year it is nearly 40 percent.
Expecting the Brewers to qualify for the postseason behind a No. 1 starter with the skill set of Chacin is... fool's gold... and equal to the value of waterfront property in the Everglades.
Lester allowed two unearned runs, surrendered eight hits and pitched around base runners in the fifth and six innings of a win over a pedestrian Marlins offense in his last start. Two starts back the veteran lefty was in Seattle facing a lineup that has done their best work of the season against southpaws. Lester pitched seven innings of scoreless one-hit ball.
As grumpy as the big lefty can be, and as old and tired as he appears at time walking from the dugout to both the mound and the batter’s box he is has had his best April into May... of his career... bottom line. The Cubs elderly starter now ranks in the top 5 in MLB in ERA. Yes, I don't put a huge value on ERA and believe it is the most abused pitching stat... ever. It isn't an accurate measure of a pitchers ability.
That said Lester's ERA of 1.41 and WHIP of 1.03 are the best surface number the 35-year old has had at this point of a young season. Only once in the last seven years has Jon Lester had an ERA over 4.00. That was in 2017, the one year he had a strand rate below 70%.
In fact, his ERA often goes as his strand rate goes, and through five starts this year his strand rate is an unsustainable 96%. And the answer is NO to any questions about whether he or any pitcher can continue to strand runners at a rate only God can. What is most promising is that he has been at his best, at any point in his career, at situational pitching. Meaning he has the lowest hard hit rate of his career with runners on base. When the bases are empty his hard contact is 40-plus percent... he is pitching to contact with a solid ground ball to fly ball ratio and when asked has spent the extra energy with added velocity when he is in the stretch.
It has been, without question, hard to watch at time but mostly remarkable, how Lester is able to minimize damage without a higher swing and miss percentage. The current delta between his ERA and FIP will close as the season progresses. He is in no way shape or form a pitcher that can maintain a 1.41 ERA. But his mound IQ is ridiculously elite and in this contest it is more about how we only need a pedestrian performance from Lester tonight for the cubs to have a 66 percent chance of winning, and doing so by margin, because of the visitors starting pitcher and over-used bullpen.
CHICAGO CUBS -130
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Greg shaker
3*
Philadelphia / Toronto over 209
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Karl Garrett - NHL Winner # 8 of 12
50 DIME
DOUBLE WAGER
WINNER # 3 IN A ROW
Playoff Underdog
Bruins
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #971 Yankees +150 (Tanaka)
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Marlins / Mets PPD
This afternoon’s game has been postponed due to inclement weather and rescheduled as part of a single-admission doubleheader on Monday, August 5 at 4:10 p.m.
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Tony Mejia
Angels -153
Analysis: Albert Pujols is on a tear, Shohei Ohtani has returned to a DH role, Tommy LaStella and David Fletcher have really thrived of late, and Mike Trout continues his reign as baseball's best player. The Halos' surge hasn't been a fluke. Another piece to the puzzle, heralded 22-year-old rookie Griffin Canning, has helped L.A. pick up wins in his first two starts and should help break out the brooms at Camden Yards to continue a fabulous two-week stretch. Ride Los Angeles.
Twins -1.5 runs
After splitting a double-header on Saturday, the Twins will look to take a third game in four tries to improve on the best record in baseball. Lefties Daniel Norris and Martin Perez will square off in this series finale, so it's definitely worth knowing that Minnesota has climbed up to second in all of baseball in OPS against southpaws with their work of late. With the hot Angels set to come into town next, the Twins are about to get a major test but will take care of business here first with another lopsided win. Ride the run-line to reduce the risk here.
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (953) Pittsburgh Pirates at (954) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: May 12 2019 2:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+122)
Game: (979) Philadelphia Phillies at (980) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: May 12 2019 2:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (-120)
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Wolf
balt laa under 9
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Kenny White
TORONTO -6
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 5/12 | 7:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:30 AM
I'm looking for Kawhi Leonard to take over this game. Leonard won an NBA Finals with San Antonio, so he knows what it takes to win a big Game 7. I have Toronto rated the No. 1 team in the East, three points better than Philadelphia. The Sixers are night and day, home and away. Philly is 23-23 SU on the road while being outscored by 2.9 points per game. In Philly, the Sixers are 35-12, winning by 8.3 points per game. The difference is 11.2 points. Toronto's defense is No. 2 in the playoffs. Philadelphia wants to run, but the Raptors want to play half-court basketball. Toronto will control the pace, playing its game and frustrating the Sixers.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NBA ATS PICKS | +300
5-0 IN LAST 5 TOR ATS PICKS | +500
2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ATS PICKS | +89
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Tom Fornelli
TORONTO -6
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 5/12 | 7:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:23 AM
Maybe it'll make me end up looking like a fool, but I couldn't help but get the sense that Philly's 112-101 win over the Raptors in Game 6 was the team's last gasp effort to fight back, and I just don't trust the Sixers to have another performance like that in them. Honestly, I'm not sure that game as a result of Philly playing well as much as it was just Toronto laying an egg. I don't think Toronto will do that at home in Game 7.
79-50 IN LAST 129 NBA PICKS | +2389
DENVER -5.5
PORTLAND @ DENVER | 5/12 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:20 AM
We head into the final game of this series with the home team going 4-2 both straight up and ATS, and I expect that trend will continue in the finale. The Nuggets have been terrific at home all season, and in the playoffs, going 29-19 ATS overall, and 27-18 ATS as a home favorite. The Blazers, meanwhile, are only 11-18 ATS as a road underdog.
79-50 IN LAST 129 NBA PICKS | +2389
3-1 IN LAST 4 POR ATS PICKS | +189
2-1 IN LAST 3 DEN ATS PICKS | +91
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Adam Thompson
OVER 213.5 PORTLAND @ DENVER | 5/12 | 3:30 PM EDT
11:16 AM
Not counting Game 2 and its 187 points with brutal offense, and Game 3 and its 277 anf four OTs, every other game in this series have finished between 222 and 234 points. Yet the total continues to hang just under what these two teams averaged in the regular season. In all but the ugly Game 2, the winning team has had at least 116 points. I would expect a similar final score that we've seen several times before.
87-67-1 IN LAST 155 NBA PICKS | +1287
DENVER -5.5
PORTLAND @ DENVER | 5/12 | 3:30 PM EDT
11:12 AM
This has been a fun series to watch, but now it's time for Denver to prove it was the No. 2 seed in the West for a reason. The Nuggets were the toughest home team in the NBA, the Blazers finished just one game over .500 on the road. While it seems like every series has come down to the wire, four of the six games have been decided by seven points or more. I'll lay the points with the home Nuggets.
87-67-1 IN LAST 155 NBA PICKS | +1287
8-5 IN LAST 13 DEN ATS PICKS | +247
MINNESOTA -200
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 5/12 | 2:10 PM EDT
10:49 AM
In every way is the Twins' offense better than the one the Tigers will put on the field. Against lefties -- each starts one Sunday -- Minnesota hits .292 with a huge .896 OPS compared to .206/.637 of Detroit. That's just the start. Tigers starter Daniel Norris hasn't gone more than five innings in any of his four starts and the Tigers have a bad bullpen, while Martin Perez is throwing as well as anyone in baseball right now. The money line price is high but Minnesota should win handily.
14-5 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS | +748
9-2 IN LAST 11 MIN ML PICKS | +725
7-2 IN LAST 9 DET ML PICKS | +459
TAMPA BAY -167
N.Y. YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY | 5/12 | 1:10 PM EDT
10:41 AM
The Yankees' offense has faded without its big stars lately, scoring just 3.7 runs per game in May. They're just .238 hitting against LHPs, and Sunday see one of the premier southpaws in Blake Snell. Meanwhile, the Rays' lineup is a lifetime .328 against Masahiro Tanaka.
14-5 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS | +748
10-3 IN LAST 13 TB ML PICKS | +647
17-13 IN LAST 30 NYY ML PICKS | +175
SEATTLE +146
SEATTLE @ BOSTON | 5/12 | 1:05 PM EDT
10:31 AM
The Red Sox bats have blasted Mariners pitching the first two games of this series, but Marco Gonzales is 5-1 including a win over Boston, and the Sox have struggled at times against left-handed pitching. The Sox are going with a bullpen game -- they're 2-2 in such games. The money line price for Seattle is worth taking a flyer on.
14-5 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS | +748
24-14 IN LAST 38 BOS ML PICKS | +484
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Champagne - Top Cubs Reg LAD under
Philly Guy - Phillies Red Sox Rockies Cards Astros
Augie J - Hurricanes over
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Stephen Oh
TORONTO -119
CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 5/12 | 1:07 PM EDT
6:54 AM
You're getting good value with Toronto in this game. The oddsmakers essentially have this as a pick 'em game, but my model says the Jays win this game more than 60 percent of the time. Toronto has won seven of its past 10 games against the White Sox and have been able to cool off the hot-hitting Jose Abreu, who was 0-for-5 with three strikeouts Saturday. Take Toronto.
46-28 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS | +1733
33-20 IN LAST 53 TOR ML PICKS | +1391
18-9 IN LAST 27 CHW ML PICKS | +1026
CLEVELAND +118
CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND | 5/12 | 4:07 PM EDT
6:44 AM
My model says that the Indians win this game 50 percent of the time, so you're getting good value betting Cleveland as the underdog. Indians starter Jefry Rodriguez (0-2, 2.41 ERA) has pitched well in all three of his starts, allowing just five runs and striking out 12 in 18.2 innings. In addition, no player on Oakland's roster has ever faced him. Take the Indians.
46-28 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS | +1733
24-17 IN LAST 41 CLE ML PICKS | +993
14-8 IN LAST 22 OAK ML PICKS | +564
SAN FRANCISCO -116
CINCINNATI @ SAN FRANCISCO | 5/12 | 4:05 PM EDT
6:31 AM
Reds starter Tyler Mahle is 0-5 with a 3.69 ERA, and Cincinnati is 1-6 this season in games he has started. Though he has pitched well in his last two starts, he did not pitch well in his only previous start at Oracle Park, giving up four runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings. My model says that San Francisco wins this game almost 60 percent of the time. Take the Giants.
46-28 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS | +1733
11-5 IN LAST 16 CIN ML PICKS | +703
3-2 IN LAST 5 SF ML PICKS | +62
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The Spot Player MLB (141-101 season)
3* STL
3* SF
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Carolina +127
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