Saturday 6/1/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Carmine Bianco
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL
4% Liverpool -106
Europe's premier club tournament comes to a conclusion on Saturday with two familar foes taking the field as Tottenham and Liverpool meet in the Champions League Final and it'll be a play on Liverpool. We'll start with Tottenham who put together an improbably comeback in the semifinals needing 3 goals in the final 35 minutes of leg 2 and managed to complete that with a final minute (96th) goal and a 3-2 win to earn a birth into the final. Liverpool used a similar leg 2 miracle beating Barcelona 4-0 to overturn a 3-0 Leg 1 loss and earn a chance at redemption after last seasons 3-1 loss in the final to Real Madrid. These sides have met twice in league play this season with Liverpool coming out on the right side of 2-1 decisions in both. Both sides have had almost 3 weeks to rest/prepare which has allowed key players to come back off injuries with Roberto Firmino returning for Liverpool and he'll be a major key to the teams attack and breaking down the Spurs backline. Harry Kane has also reportedly returned and has been the Spurs main threat over the past few seasons but at writing it's uncertain whether he'll start or come off the bench and the concern here is that with the injury he suffered originally the timetable for return seems quicker than normal and he has just started to take part in first team drills. Is an 80% Kane better than what they could otherwise field? Not entirely convinced and in my opinion it'll likely hurt more than help. Putting league results aside this Reds team has made it a mission to get back to the CL Final after last years loss in which for at least the first 45 minutes they looked the better side. After 52 competitive matches this season (37 wins) they've made it back and a win on Saturday would complete the mission.
PROPS
Some prop plays (1% plays) These are wagers I have played. Also Liverpool (-185) to Lift the Trophy which is a safer alternative for those that think Liverpool will win but that it might come in extra time or penalty kicks. Our wager is Liverpool in Regulation time and the price has dropped a few cents since posting but I don't believe it'll hit lower than -110 and likely stays in the same price range. GL Guys.
Roberto Firmino To Score +187 (Firmino has been ruled fit and has scored in both Liverpool 2-1 wins this season over Tottenham.
Liverpool To Score In First Half -120 (Liverpool have broken through for a first half goal in 7 straight games vs Tottenham dating back to 2016)
Liverpool Exact Score 2-0 +800 (In last years Champions League Final only a late game goalkeeping miscue by Karius preventing us from sweeping all props included a 2-1 Exact Score selection. I'll take another shot here on Saturday looking for a cleansheet win).
Liverpool To Score a Penalty +600 (This should only be a 0.5% of wager but one that I'll play now that VAR (video assisted review) has become to play a bigger part in penalties being awarded. We saw one in the Final of the World Cup so it's not outside of the relm of occurring)
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Nick Borrman
UEFA Champions League Final
4% Liverpool -110
Liverpool has the experience in this game and learned the best lesson last year losing to Real Madrid in the Champions League final. This game is similar to the Super Bowl with the amount of time off since these teams' last matches. There is also a ton of distractions from every angle with the amount of media coverage and travel schedules getting to Spain well over a week in advance to prepare. That being said, a big edge to Liverpool here in terms of experince.
As fas as the field goes, edge goes to Liverpool as well with the better team. I don't need to go into too much detail on how strong they were in league play this year while also having the player of the year in Virgil van Dijk along with their offense stars in Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino. They lost just one game on the year and had the best defense in the league.
Tottenham went through hot and cold phases this year and in all honesty are lucky to be here with a late stoppage time goal needed to get past Ajax in the semifinals. Harry Kane is expected to return after a two month absense which will certainly help their offensive attack but I think it could also hurt them in the sense that they may need some time for everyone to get back in sync with one another. That could lead to an early mistake and is Liverpool can capitalize on something early, it will be tough for Tottenham to claw back.
This play is on regulation+stoppage time only. If they game goes to extra time and/or penalities this is graded as a loss. You can take Liverpool to win the Champions League at around -200, but I don't think it's worth the price.
TAKE LIVERPOOL ML or -0.5 (whichever line is better)
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VSI Soccer
Saturday champions league final
3*-under-2.5-tott-liver...3pm
saturday mls
3 *-dc united-120....8pm
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Carmine Bianco
5% Boston Bruins Over 5
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Kyle Markus
UEFA Champions League Final (TNT 3:00 p.m. et)
Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool
ATS Pick - Tottenham Hotspur +310
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Tim Wilkinson
Top Play Boston Bruins +101
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Toby Maxtone-Smith
UEFA Champions League Final
Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool (TV - TNT - Game Time 3:00 p.m.et)
ATS Picks
Best Bet - Liverpool
Liverpool to Win in 90 minutes at 10/11
First Goalscorer: Sadio Mane at 5/1
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Tim Wilkinson
UFC on ESPN+ 11
Alexander Gustafsson -300 (Best Bet)
Damir Hadzovic -165 (Best Bet)
Daniel Teymur +115
Makwan Amirkhani -115
Jimi Manuwa +175
Stevie Ray +135
Frank Camacho -117
Devin Clark -120
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BaseWinner
HOU -152
Stros at Athletics -- Basewinner Line Stros -214
A first look at Brett Andersonshows a decent ERA with a 3.86 that puts him 46th out of 87 qualified starters. However, his .75 bb/k is the 3rd worst among these qualifiers.
The BW kbb model has this one priced as HOU -203 which concurs with the BW Crunch line.
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Ben Burns
3*(NHL)
St.louis -111
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Dave Essler
3* TOM
Texas / Kansas City over 10.5
2*
Chicago Whitesox / Cleveland over 10
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Spartan
3*GOW
Houston -152
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Wise Guy Insider
MLB 9:10 pm Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies -145 for 1 units
ACTION
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
2:10 PM EST
Rotation #965-966
White Sox -105 over Indians
Nova/Rodriguez
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JR ODONNELL
3*(NHL)
St.louis / Boston over 5
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Greg Shaker
3*
St.louis / Chicago Cubs under 9
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #975/976 San Francisco/Baltimore OVER 9.5
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David Kelly
OVER 5 BOSTON @ ST. LOUIS | 6/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
As bad as the Blues played in Game 1, they dominated the Bruins in Game 2 in perhaps the most physical contest of the entire playoffs. If St. Louis repeats that effort, Boston is in for a long night. The Bruins have to answer tonight if they can; their defense must hold up to the expected Blues bombardment. I believe goals will come in this pivotal match, so take the Over.
14-8-1 IN LAST 23 NHL O/U PICKS | +527
16-11-1 IN LAST 28 BOS O/U PICKS | +428
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H&H Sports
(MLB) - 5* Cleveland Indians -118
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Larry Hartstein
OAKLAND +140
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 6/01 | 10:07 PM EDT
I think the loss of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa is starting to impact this lineup. Over the last two games, the Astros have just four runs on 12 hits. On Friday night they got two home runs to squeeze out a 3-2 win. A’s starter Brett Anderson (6-3, 3.86 ERA) is allowing an excellent 0.74 home runs per nine innings, which is 17th best in the majors among starters and right behind Hyun-Jin Ryu. I realize Justin Verlander (8-2, 2.38) is on the mound for Houston, but I think Anderson frustrates the Astros hitters and Oakland pulls out a low-scoring win.
24-11 IN LAST 35 MLB PICKS | +857
10-4 IN LAST 14 OAK ML PICKS | +503
ATLANTA -243
DETROIT @ ATLANTA | 6/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
Sign me up for the Braves. Atlanta starter Mike Soroka (5-1, 1.07 ERA) is quickly emerging as one of the best starters in the National League. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his eight starts this season and would lead the majors in ERA if he had enough innings. Meanwhile, Detroit sends out lefty Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.18), and the Braves feast on southpaws. They rank seventh in average (.267) and sixth in OPS (.801) in the majors against lefties this season. Even at this price, Atlanta provides strong value.
24-11 IN LAST 35 MLB PICKS | +857
27-21 IN LAST 48 ATL ML PICKS | +276
3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ML PICKS | +200
MILWAUKEE -185
MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 6/01 | 4:05 PM EDT
This pitching mismatch tilts heavily toward the Brewers. Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff (7-1, 3.22 ERA) is looking for his seventh straight win on Saturday. In his last six starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s Nick Kingham (1-1, 8.28) hasn’t won a game as a starter since July 21, 2018. The Pirates are 2-6 in his last eight starts. Milwaukee is still a solid value at this price.
24-11 IN LAST 35 MLB PICKS | +857
9-4 IN LAST 13 MIL ML PICKS | +491
3-2 IN LAST 5 PIT ML PICKS | +47
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Johnny Bollman
UNDER 9.5 DETROIT @ ATLANTA | 6/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
Mike Soroka has allowed one run or less in each of his first eight starts this season. Daniel Norris is 2-3 with a 4.18 ERA this season, but he sports a 3.29 ERA on the road. In the last week, Atlanta hasn’t scored more than four runs in a game and this Tigers offense is still the second worst in the league.
18-12 IN LAST 30 MLB PICKS | +366
MILWAUKEE -185
MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 6/01 | 4:05 PM EDT
Brandon Woodruff is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA this season while Nick Kingham is 1-1 with an 8.28 ERA. The Brewers are 9-2 when Woodruff starts while the Pirates are 1-2 when Kingham starts. Lay the favorite.
18-12 IN LAST 30 MLB ML PICKS | +366
2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ML PICKS | +48
ST. LOUIS -120
BOSTON @ ST. LOUIS | 6/01 | 8:00 PM
This stadium will be rocking hosting the first Stanley Cup final in St. Louis in 49 years. The Blues have momentum after last game’s win in overtime and they’ll be flying at the start of this game. The Bruins are 11-3 when scoring first and the Blues are 10-4 when scoring first, so we should be able to tell a lot from this first period. Look for the Blues to feed off the crown in this game, special teams will be the difference.
3-2 IN LAST 5 NHL ML PICKS | +115
2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +150
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Goodfella
3*
St.louis -130
2*
TEXAS/KANSAS CITY OVER 10.5
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Seabass first report : 400 Indians , 400 brewers RL, 600 royals game over , 300 reds , 300 braves RL
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Doc mlb 6-1
3 astros-150
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King creole
2*
St.louis / Chicago Cubs under 9
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Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited
PLAY: (970) SEATTLE +105
RATING: 4% PLAY
The Angels have struggled when facing Left-Handers this year going just 6-14 while averaging just 3.8 runs a game. Today they will face Tom Milone who will be making his 3rd start of the season. In his 1st two he has a ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 0.84. His strikeout to walk ratio is 13-2. I only expect Milone to continue to get even better. Over the last 2 seasons when the line is +125 to -125 the Angels are only 43-61. This is the 6th game of the road trip for the Angels and following 5 or more consecutive road games the Angels are just 29-48. My numbers have Seattle winning 6-4.
TAKE SEATTLE as MARCO’S 4% BASEBALL HIGH ROLLER
PLAY: (970) SEATTLE +105
RATING: 4% PLAY
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Kevin Rogers
MLB
Boston Red Sox +113
Toronto Blue Jays +141
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Champagne - Az Texas Clev over
Augie J - Twins
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Philly Guy - SD Rockies Braves LAD Texas
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Gabriel Dupont
80 Dime NHL Winner # 4 of 5
SECOND-BIGGEST RELEASE THIS SEASON
Stanley Cup Final
Total of the Year
blues/bruins under
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Stephen Nover
2*
Atlanta -1.5(-120)
2*
Texas / Kansas City over 10.5
2*(NHL)
Boston +104
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Micah Roberts
OVER 9.5 BOSTON @ N.Y. YANKEES | 6/01 | 7:15 PM EDT
The Yankees have won eight of Domingo German's 10 starts, and he's been their best starter all season. But he comes off a beatdown in Kansas City where he allowed seven runs. Is the K.C. game just one of those things that happens or is he wearing down? Boston's resurgence has been aided greatly by Rick Porcello. They've won seven of his last eight starts, and nine of his 11 starts have gone Over. Boston has lost its last three, and the Yankees are on a 31-10 run. Over is the top play here.
4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB PICKS | +440
18-13-2 IN LAST 33 NYY O/U PICKS | +378
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Micah 'Right Ya' Roberts
OVER 9.5 BOSTON @ N.Y. YANKEES | 6/01 | 7:15 PM EDT
3:34 PM
The Yankees have won eight of Domingo German's 10 starts, and he's been their best starter all season. But he comes off a beatdown in Kansas City where he allowed seven runs. Is the K.C. game just one of those things that happens or is he wearing down? Boston's resurgence has been aided greatly by Rick Porcello. They've won seven of his last eight starts, and nine of his 11 starts have gone Over. Boston has lost its last three, and the Yankees are on a 31-10 run. Over is the top play here.
4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB PICKS | +440
18-13-2 IN LAST 33 NYY O/U PICKS | +378
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JM
Today's Pythagorean series pick:
[MLB] 1* Star Betting Series: Arizona Diamondback {B} bet. If they do not win today, please automatically move on to the {C} bet on Arizona tomorrow. If Arizona wins, then the series is over and we record it as a win.
All Pythagorean bets are always on the money line.
Al the best,
The Champ Team
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