Wednesday 7/24/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
King creole
2*
Pittsburgh / st.louis over 9.5
2*
Baltimore / Arizona over 9
2*
Yankees / Minnesota over 10.5
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+EV: MLB 4u: 911 Boston Red Sox -102 (D Price | C Morton) (Wednesday, July 24th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 915 Texas Rangers -124 (M Leake | M Minor) (Wednesday, July 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 927 Miami Marlins -107 (Z Gallen | R Lopez) (Wednesday, July 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 923 Baltimore Orioles +110 (J Means | T Clarke) (Wednesday, July 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 903 Chicago Cubs -133 (J Lester | T Beede) (Wednesday, July 23rd)
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (915) Texas Rangers at (916) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 3:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Texas Rangers -128
View Analysis
Minor v. Leake
Solid trend backing the Rangers stopper against the Leake near miss Perfecto. Texas lineup set up amazing to crush a soft throwing RHP like Mike.
Game: (909) San Diego Padres at (910) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -151
View Analysis
Lamet v. Syndergaard
11-2 system and 15-6 system both backing Thor tonight....solid play despite sitting on the sidelines with Vargas....and the Mets have a Thor audition in their favor while Lamet is a huge step down from Paddack...outside the systems!
Game: (911) Boston Red Sox at (912) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Boston Red Sox +106
View Analysis
Price v. Morton
Rays did ALL they could to tie this series last night...or more like the Sox pen did what they could...but with another lefty in Price against RHP in Morton I need little else besides the way each lineup is hitting against the respective handedness....Boston is #1 in July with the Rays #30!
Game: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -101
View Analysis
Waino v. Lyles
Jordan Lyles has YET to make a start in the MLB in the month of July where his team escaped with a W.
As kooky talk as this is...we also have Wainwright who has been much better and is maybe even able to get some run support with Lyles on the opposing.bump!
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BaseWinner MLB Betting Projections (July 24)
The model has 2 totals and 3 sides. The model has 0 games with a side and total play in the same game.
901 .5* CIN +145
912 .5* BOS/TBR u7.5 -102
914 .67* OAK/HOU u8.5 -102
921 .5* PHI -140
930 .67* LAD -182
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Ben burns
3*TOM
Chicago whitesox/ Miami under 9.5
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Spartan
3*
Texas -141
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Stephen NOVER
3*
Arizona / Baltimore over 9
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Dave essler
3*TOW
Washington / Colorado over 9.5
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Larry Hartstein
PHILADELPHIA -158
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 7/24 | 1:10 PM EDT
10:19 AM
Vince Velasquez has 70 strikeouts in 61 innings, so he still has good stuff and today he gets a chance to make his case for a rotation spot. He's facing a Tigers team that's dropped 23 of 27. Detroit starter Jordan Zimmermann has given up 20 earned runs in his last three starts -covering 11 innings. That's not a misprint. Lay it.
54-32 IN LAST 86 MLB ML PICKS | +1951
18-7 IN LAST 25 PHI ML PICKS | +1117
10-2 IN LAST 12 DET ML PICKS | +800
N.Y. METS -157
SAN DIEGO @ N.Y. METS | 7/24 | 7:10 PM EDT
12:19 AM
Noah Syndergaard has been brilliant since the All-Star Break, with 17 strikeouts and one walk in 14 innings. He's allowed three runs in that span. Now he faces a Padres team that's 2-5 on its current road trip. Back New York to win Syndergaard's fifth straight home start.
54-32 IN LAST 86 MLB ML PICKS | +1951
39-17 IN LAST 56 NYM ML PICKS | +1791
35-14 IN LAST 49 SD ML PICKS | +1537
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 7/24
100* Mets -150
100* Rays -110
100* Over 10 Reds/Brewers
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Miller locks
1:10 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. Detroit tigers
pick: Philadelphia phillies (-152)
risk: 11 units
3:40 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Seattle mariners
pick: Texas rangers (-145)
risk: 11 units
8:10 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Minnesota twins
pick: Minnesota twins (+101)
risk: 11 units
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Greg shaker
3*
St.louis -105
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Chicago whitesox -120
3*
LA Angles +1.5(-120)
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Johnny Bollman
CLEVELAND -138
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 7/24 | 7:07 PM EDT
11:08 AM
Shane Bieber is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA this season and 6-2 with a 3.19 ERA on the road. Marcus Stroman is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA but he is 2-6 with a 3.47 ERA at home. The Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 while the Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last 10. The Indians are 5-1 against the Blue Jays this season and 21-13 as the road favorite. The Indians are 14-6 when Bieber starts and the Blue Jays are 8-12 when Stroman starts.
86-55 IN LAST 141 MLB ML PICKS | +1676
8-2 IN LAST 10 TOR ML PICKS | +509
5-0 IN LAST 5 CLE ML PICKS | +506
PHILADELPHIA -159
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 7/24 | 1:10 PM EDT
11:07 AM
Jordan Zimmermann is 0-7 with a 7.51 ERA this season and he has given up 27 runs in 26 innings since returning from the IL. Vince Velasquez is 2-5 with a 4.87 ERA but he has given up 15 runs in 21.1 IP since being added back into the starting rotation. However, the Tigers are 4-23 in their last 27 games. They had six chances to walk off the Phillies last night and couldn’t do it. Despite their poor road record, the Phillies are 12-7 as the road favorite while the Tigers are 8-33 as the home underdog.
86-55 IN LAST 141 MLB ML PICKS | +1676
15-2 IN LAST 17 DET ML PICKS | +1259
5-1 IN LAST 6 PHI ML PICKS | +455
WASHINGTON -122
COLORADO @ WASHINGTON | 7/24 | 1:05 PM EDT
11:06 AM
Erik Fedde is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA this season and he threw six innings only giving up one run in his most recent start since being recalled. Jon Gray is 9-7 with a 4.11 ERA this season and 5-5 with a 4.29 ERA on the road. In July, he is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA. The Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and 21-29 on the road. The Nats are 27-20 at home and 34-14 in their last 48 games. The Nats are 13-2 on the second day after a day off, lay the home favorite.
86-55 IN LAST 141 MLB ML PICKS | +1676
4-2 IN LAST 6 COL ML PICKS | +72
2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS ML PICKS | +1
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Adam Thompson
TEXAS -142
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 7/24 | 3:40 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:15 PM
It doesn't seem that long ago that Texas had one of the top offenses in baseball. Well in July, the Rangers rank dead-last in average (.224) and 29th in OPS (.698). Despite that, they're still averaing more runs this month than the Mariners, who are near the bottom of most batting stats. Mike Leake is coming off a near perfect game gem, but this Rangers lineup is a lifetime .342 against him on a big 149 at-bat sample size. Meanwhile, Seattle is only .145 lifetime against Mike Minor and ranks 27th in hitting vs. LHPs. He's already struck out 23 Mariners in two starts against them this year.
28-17 IN LAST 45 MLB ML PICKS | +496
24-14 IN LAST 38 TEX ML PICKS | +794
PITTSBURGH -110
ST. LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH | 7/24 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:04 PM
The Cardinals have won nine of 11 while the Pirates have lost nine of 11. But it's a good bounceback spot for Pittsburgh. Adam Wainwright was shelled his last time out and is 1-5 with a 7.16 ERA on the road this season. He faces a Pirates offense that is second only to the Rockies in home hitting, batting .290 with a .799 OPS. Jordan Lyles has had his issues at PNC Park, but he held the Phillies to one run over 5.1 innings his last start.
28-17 IN LAST 45 MLB ML PICKS | +496
5-2 IN LAST 7 STL ML PICKS | +296
MINNESOTA -110
N.Y. YANKEES @ MINNESOTA | 7/24 | 8:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:51 PM
J.A. Happ is undefeated on the road for the Yankees, 3-0 with a 3.77 ERA. But Jake Odorizzi is 6-0 at home, with a 2.56 ERA, .203 average allowed and scant 0.99 WHIP. The Twins showcased their status as best team against left-handed pitching by knocking around CC Sabathia on Monday and they're re-found their form after a mini-slump, averaging 5.2 runs per game in July with an OPS of .844. The Yankees are a top-flight hitting team, but I like Odorizzi over Happ at nearly the same price.
28-17 IN LAST 45 MLB ML PICKS | +496
11-8 IN LAST 19 MIN ML PICKS | +26
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ML PICKS | +5
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Mike McClure
WASHINGTON -122
COLORADO @ WASHINGTON | 7/24 | 1:05 PM EDT
11:22 AM
Jon Gray is the better pitcher in this matchup, but the Nationals are a much better team playing at home. Look for another big game from Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto. The only concern here is Erick Fedde's wOBA allowed numbers against left-handed hitters, but the negative park shift for the Rockies makes it less concerning. Lay it.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +480
10-3 IN LAST 13 COL ML PICKS | +795
15-10 IN LAST 25 WAS ML PICKS | +341
CLEVELAND -138
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 7/24 | 7:07 PM EDT
11:18 AM
The Indians are undervalued after a poor performance last night against Aaron Sanchez. This might be Stroman's last start in Toronto and I like Cleveland to spoil it. Shane Bieber profiles well against this Jays lineup. My simulations suggest this line should be closer to -147.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +480
11-8 IN LAST 19 TOR ML PICKS | +426
10-6 IN LAST 16 CLE ML PICKS | +375
PHILADELPHIA -158
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 7/24 | 1:10 PM EDT
10:27 AM
Vince Velasquez hasn't been very good for the Phillies, but Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers have been much worse. Zimmermann hasn't allowed many HR, but he's really struggled in terms of wOBA allowed with a .397 to left-handed hitters. The addition of the DH in the American League park should help the Phillies offense more than in impacts Velasquez on the mound.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +480
6-0 IN LAST 6 DET ML PICKS | +600
4-0 IN LAST 4 PHI ML PICKS | +429
MIAMI -101
MIAMI @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/24 | 8:10 PM EDT
8:59 AM
The Marlins are undervalued again tonight in the American League park in Chicago. The Marlins have a strong pitching edge with Zac Gallen against Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has really struggled at home with a 2.21 HR/9 rate and wOBA allowed numbers that are worse than league average. My simulations suggest the Marlins should be -115.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +480
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIA ML PICKS | +300
2-1 IN LAST 3 CHW ML PICKS | +15
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Zack Cimini
SEATTLE +124
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 7/24 | 3:40 PM EDT
9:03 AM
Wednesday Seattle Mariners pitcher Mike Leake will aim to build upon a one-hit gem his last outing. In the third game of their series he’ll face a Texas Rangers team coming off a rare Tuesday road win. The win ended an eight-game losing streak and pushed them back above .500. Struggling post-All-Star break has been Rangers pitcher Mike Minor. Minor is coming off allowing a season-high four home runs his last start. Expect a better outing but for the Mariners to come out on top.
4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +365
13-8 IN LAST 21 TEX ML PICKS | +623
19-14 IN LAST 33 SEA ML PICKS | +494
PHILADELPHIA -158
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 7/24 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:02 AM
A dreadful season from Tigers pitcher Jordan Zimmerman appears that it can’t get any worse. Being on the worst team in MLB certainly has not helped Zimmerman who has not lasted beyond four innings in three straight starts. Continue to ride against the Tigers in an early start mid-week game that should result in a resurgence to the Phillies offense.
4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +365
17-6 IN LAST 23 DET ML PICKS | +1065
4-0 IN LAST 4 PHI ML PICKS | +400
BALTIMORE +120
BALTIMORE @ ARIZONA | 7/24 | 3:40 PM EDT
9:00 AM
The Baltimore Orioles suddenly have won four of their last six games. Wednesday they’ll attempt to win consecutive road games for the second time this month, a feat they hadn’t accomplished prior since April 1. Facing a highly vulnerable pitcher on the Diamondbacks in Taylor Clarke should deliver the Orioles another win. Grab Baltimore as the slight underdog Wednesday.
4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +365
21-14 IN LAST 35 BAL ML PICKS | +487
MIAMI -101
MIAMI @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/24 | 8:10 PM EDT
8:59 AM
Tuesday the Marlins ended a four-game losing streak as they defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-1. Wednesday they find themselves in a favorable position by oddsmakers as slight underdogs. This is likely due to Chicago’s Wednesday starter Reynaldo Lopez’s home woes. His last three home starts Lopez has given up five runs or more. Grab the Marlins.
4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +365
13-3 IN LAST 16 CHW ML PICKS | +951
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Micah Roberts
PHILADELPHIA -159
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 7/24 | 1:10 PM EDT
11:58 AM
Jordan Zimmermann has been a disaster this season and has allowed six runs or more in each of his last three starts. The Tigers have lost nine of his last 10 starts and he gave up five runs or more in seven of those games. It's amazing he's still getting a chance to start. The Tigers have lost seven of their last eight overall. Phillies to win.
7-5 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS | +153
7-1 IN LAST 8 PHI ML PICKS | +683
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
Great Lake Sports
MLB
4* #906 Pittsburgh -110 (Lyles)
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
Great Lake Sports
MLB
4* #906 Pittsburgh -110 (Lyles)
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Dave essler
3*TOW
Washington / Colorado over 9.5
GAME 2
DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (911) Boston Red Sox at (912) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Boston Red Sox +106
View Analysis
Price v. Morton
Rays did ALL they could to tie this series last night...or more like the Sox pen did what they could...but with another lefty in Price against RHP in Morton I need little else besides the way each lineup is hitting against the respective handedness....Boston is #1 in July with the Rays #30!
Game: (921) Philadelphia Phillies at (922) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 10.5 (+105)
View Analysis
Velasquez v. Zimmerman
20-8 run on this Under play encompassing an intra-series extra inning and get away day combo spot!
Game: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Cincinnati Reds +125
View Analysis
Sims v. Chacin
Getaway day for the divisional foes today and the Reds get to face Chacin who they've beaten twice with varying degress of offensive success, but with bats this HOT...from top to bottom it sure as hell isn't hard to be confused as shit at this line Chacin-only.
Lucas Sims is getting just his 2nd start but trumps in every metric these 2 compare...with his 11/2 K/BB rate and 3.01/3.91 FIP split with Chacin coming in with 8/4 K/BB and 5.67/5.27 split!
Take the hot bats, all those erroneous points, and don't stress about the bullpens!
Game: (915) Texas Rangers at (916) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 3:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Texas Rangers -128
View Analysis
Minor v. Leake
Solid trend backing the Rangers stopper against the Leake near miss Perfecto. Texas lineup set up amazing to crush a soft throwing RHP like Mike.
Game: (923) Baltimore Orioles at (924) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 3:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (+102)
View Analysis
Means v. Clarke
Unbelievable deal here despite holding out to see if any 9s might hit the board anywhere. This is a fantastic FIP system fade with the better starter FIP being the road starter in John Means at 5.35 with Taylor Clarke coming in north of 6.00!
The umpire today will be Nic Lentz...and in addition to the shortcomings of both starters...he is literally as good as they come backing an Over play. He is 63% Over...home teams average north of 6 runs and both teams combine for a nearly league high .278 BA in games he resides at home! Pitchers each have 5+ ERAs and we get a total less than 10 considering the pitchers could do this alone sans an Over plate umpire
Hit This one before any 10s arrive as they zap the value a bit. If worst case scenario here is 6-4 or 7-3 we still win! To top it off.this is a series rubber match!
Game: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -101
View Analysis
Waino v. Lyles
Jordan Lyles has YET to make a start in the MLB in the month of July where his team escaped with a W.
As kooky talk as this is...we also have Wainwright who has been much better and is maybe even able to get some run support with Lyles on the opposing.bump!
Game: (917) Cleveland Indians at (918) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Indians -132
View Analysis
Bieber v. Stroman
The Indians are off a LOSS to the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues...and possibly in years. Of course we were slaughtered SLAUGHTERED by the loss and this may feel like.a chase. I like Bieber in a backing spot moreso even than Bauer and Stroman is the Blue Jays best starter and almost certainly auditioning as well...but how much of an audition is it.when you KNOW it's your last start for your team....bittersweet must be the feelings and the Cleveland team cannot let 2 nasty ass games escape them consecutively!
Game: (909) San Diego Padres at (910) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -151
View Analysis
Lamet v. Syndergaard
11-2 system and 15-6 system both backing Thor tonight....solid play despite sitting on the sidelines with Vargas....and the Mets have a Thor audition in their favor while Lamet is a huge step down from Paddack...outside the systems!
Game: (919) New York Yankees at (920) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Jul 24 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (+100)
View Analysis
Happ v. Odorizzi
Tee off time at Target tomorrow night! Wow...what a play of the day type number....hanging a 10.5 here!
14 pitchers used last night with 26 runs and 36 hits and scoring in basically every half inning for about 6 innings!
Twins crush lefties at home...in fact leading the MLB with wRAA of 7.6 in July at home against LHP
ODORIZZI is a home run fest waiting to happen (or feast) as he continues to throw the most fly balls and fewest ground balls in the league. The Yanks just rake against mediocre to good RHP pitching....with many many going deep!
This might even be 5-5 after 5 and we cruuuuuise home
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Philly Guy -
STL AZ Wash R Sox Phillies
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Micah Roberts
ST. LOUIS -109
ST. LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH | 7/24 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:32 PM
Adam Wainwright gave up seven runs in his last start, but the Cards made a huge comeback to win and they have won his last three starts. The Cards have won six of their last seven, including their last three. The Pirates have lost their last three and are averaging just 3.3 runs per game in the last week. I'm backing St. Louis to win on Wednesday.
7-5 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS | +153
5-1 IN LAST 6 STL ML PICKS | +409
SAN FRANCISCO +130
CHI. CUBS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/24 | 3:45 PM EDT
12:06 PM
The Cubs have won five of Jon Lester's last six starts, including his last three. But five of those squads had losing records. In his last start, he gave up 12 hits and four runs in 6.0 innings against the Padres. The Giants have won Tyler Beede's last three starts, and he didn't give up a run in his last start. The Cubs have lost three straight, and the Giants have won three straight. Giants to win.
7-5 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS | +153
11-8 IN LAST 19 CHC ML PICKS | +314
3-1 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS | +202
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+EV: MLB 4u: 954 Pittsburgh Pirates -108 (M Mikolas | J Musgrove) (Thursday, July 25th)
Cubs with a pitching change.
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MLB (Bob Balfe)
8:10 PM EST
Rotation #919-920
Twins +105 over Yankees
Odorizzi/Happ
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