Pure Michigan 400 Betting News and Notes

Michigan - Driver Tale of the Tape

Kurt Busch 60/1 (No. 41 Haas Automation Chevrolet)

· Three wins, five top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 20.286, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.669, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.0, 10th-best
· 184 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.517, 12th-fastest
· 2620 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3), eighth-most
· 682 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr 60/1 (No. 88 MICROSOFT Chevrolet)

· Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.143, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.173, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.9, fifth-best
· 202 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.174, sixth-fastest
· 2808 Laps in the Top 15 (68.9), seventh-most
· 868 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson 20/1 (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.429, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 11.955, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.2, third-best
· 415 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.598, second-fastest
· 2909 Laps in the Top 15 (71.4), sixth-most
· 776 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne 80/1 (No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet)

· One win, eight top fives, ten top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 17.000, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.213, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.5, 13th-best
· 184 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.966, seventh-fastest
· 2357 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8 ), 11th-most
· 772 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Matt Kenseth 18/1 (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Two wins, 13 top fives, 19 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.286, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.319, third-best
· Driver Rating of 102.0, second-best
· 174 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.234, fourth-fastest
· 3125 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6), second-most
· 873 Quality Passes, third-most

Brad Keselowski 18/1 (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford)

· Three top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 14.083, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.687, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, 12th-best
· 55 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.856, 10th-fastest
· 1478 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1), 10th-most
· 379 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Joey Logano 20/1 (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)

· One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.154, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.207, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.9, eighth-best
· 82 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.951, eighth-fastest
· 1445 Laps in the Top 15 (56.8 ), 12th-most
· 410 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Pure Michigan 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Things are getting pretty intense with only four races to until the 16-drivers are announced for the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Playoffs, but I'm looking ahead to 2018 right now and the climate of the Cup Series.

Hendrick Motorsports is losing Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne and will replace them with two very young drivers, Alex Bowman and William Byron. They'll join Chase Elliott in his third year and then of course there's the anchor, seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson.

That's a new look, a new flavor, and a new taste for NASCAR. But there's lots more.

Kurt Busch likely won't return to the No. 41 and Matt Kenseth won't be back in the No. 20 as Erik Jones takes over. Paul Menard will leave the No. 27 and drive the No. 21 after Ryan Blaney accepted the Team Penske offer to drive a third car -- the No. 12. Danica Patrick may be a sitting duck as well in the No. 10. She barely found enough sponsorship coming into 2017. At some point Tony Stewart is going to want to see that division of his team win some races; the sponsors too. That's why she may be out.

With Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards and Earnhardt Jr. gone, can the series survive? The stands have been empty everywhere with the exception of Watkins Glen being sold out last week for the third straight year.

I hate to be that crusty old man who can't move on and lives in yesterday's world -- I don't apologize for feeling the same way with music. I think I just see some reluctance from the drivers this season to show some emotion. Kyle Busch exploded in Las Vegas while chasing Joey Logano on pit row, and got bloodied in the process, but it was awesome. And that was it. Las Vegas was race No. 3 and we're at No. 23 now. Snooze....

I don't want wrecks. I want personality conflicts and these guys all seem too chummy in the garage for that to happen.

Alright, enough whining already, let's talk about this week's race.

Sunday's Pure Michigan 400 will be the second visit to Michigan International Speedway this season. The first visit was June 18 with Kyle Larson picking up his second straight win on the 2-mile layout. All three of his career wins have been on 2-mile tracks and they've all been in a row. His other win this season came in March at California Speedway, the sister-track to Michigan.

Though the two tracks are almost identical from afar, they race very differently. But let's take a look at who has been the best combined at these 2-mile tracks. Chase Elliott has a 4.4 average finish in five career starts, including runner-up at Michigan in June. Elliott has three starts at Michigan and he's finished in second-place in all three.

“It’s great," said Chase Elliott of racing at Michigan. "It’s also frustrating to have run second every time we have been there. It’s good I guess that we are inside the top five the past few times we have been there, but at the same time that is frustrating to have been pretty close to having a shot to win there, which would have been very big if we could have pulled that out. I like Michigan. I’ve always liked going up there. I really love that area. It’s just a cool part of the United States to go to. I like it up there – it’s a nice area and that is kind of why I like going.”

The last two races at Michigan had a Larson-Elliott exacta, which can actually be wagered upon weekly at Nevada sports books that offer U.S. Fantasy Sports. It's just like the horses, except with NASCAR saddle numbers. Having exotic wagers like a daily double and different exacta pools to bet upon, it really adds another element to watching the race.

Joey Logano has a 5.2 average finish, a win and a series leading five top-5s on the two 2-mile tracks over the last eight races, then it's his teammate Brad Keselowski next with 6.2 average finish that includes a win. Logano has two Michigan wins (2013, 2015) and was third in the June race. He's outside looking in on the playoffs and is going to need a win to qualify. This seems like his best chance to get it of the four tracks remaining before judgment day and he's being offered at 20/1 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Unfortunately for Michigan native Keselowski, his win on 2-mile track came at Fontana in 2015. He's been giving everything he has in all 16 career starts at his home track, but has yet to take the checkers. However, he's been so close on several occasions with a best of runner-up in the fall of 2012. He's also been third three times, including this race last season. The Westgate is giving him 18/1 odds because they're so top heavy with Busch, Larson and Truex probabilities.

A desperate driver who is barely hanging on to that 16th and final slot in the playoffs is Matt Kenseth, who is the active leader -- among drivers with at least four starts -- at Michigan with a 10.3 average finish, three wins and 14 top-5s in 36 starts. His last win there was this race in 2015. Kenseth is 18/1 to win this week.

It's worth noting that from the June race Kenseth finished 11th and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates were even better. Kyle Busch led the third most laps (40) and finished seventh and Denny Hamlin finished fourth. It's safe to say that JGR horsepower power struggle on big tracks is a thing of the past and they're ready for the playoffs -- with five 1.5-mile tracks among the 10 playoff tracks.

One driver that disproves any theory suggesting California and Michigan are similar is Jimmie Johnson. He's won six times at California, but a 2014 Michigan win was his first there. He's had several instances there where he had the best car on the track and issues arose -- and they a wide-array of weird things keeping him from getting a Michigan trophy; fuel, gremlins, tires. He's the active leader with 674 laps led between 31 starts. He was 10th in June and sixth in this race last season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has two wins at Michigan and I'd love to see him get one here, but I still can't take the 60/1 odds offered. He's got four whacks to make the playoffs and I'm not optimistic.

“It’s been a struggle, but we have faced worse seasons," Earnhardt said. "We can’t wait to be back to work at Michigan. It’s typically a really good track for us.”

I don't want to see Junior go down like this so I'll be rooting for No. 88 loudly, but let it be noted I'm not spending any cash on him to win if that tells you anything about my confidence level.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (18/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (18/1)
3) #42 Kyle Larson (3/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (20/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (3/1)

Pure Michigan 400 Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

The second of two stops at Michigan International Speedway for the 2017 season Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is coming up this weekend as the drivers get set for the Pure Michigan 400. The two-mile track in Brooklyn, Michigan is regularly the fastest track on the NASCAR circuit because of its wide surface and high banking, so this should be a very fun and exciting race. This will be the 23rd race of 26 scheduled for the regular season.

That means that there are only four races left in the regular season before the Cup Championship Playoffs begin. Sixteen drivers qualify for the playoffs this season. Drivers with a victory have already punched a ticket to the postseason. Those without a victory will need to have the highest point totals in order to make it into the playoffs. Through 22 races, there have been 14 different winners, so just three spots in the playoffs are up for grabs over the final four weeks of the regular season.

The drivers will be in Bristol, Tennessee for next weekend’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. After a weekend off, the drivers set up shop at Darlington, South Carolina for the Bojangles’ Southern 500. The following week, they will be in Richmond, Virginia for the Federated Auto Parts 400. The playoffs begin September 17 at Chicagoland Speedway. There should be a lot of drama this weekend, especially among the drivers that don’t have a win.

A win in the duels does not count towards the playoffs, which is unfortunate for Chase Elliott. The 14 drivers with a win are Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Newman, Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch. That means that only two spots remain. Right now, Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray hold those top spots without a win. Matt Kenseth is just six points behind McMurray and Clint Bowyer is 34 points out and seems to need a win.

It looks like a three-horse race this weekend for the Pure Michigan 400. The race co-favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook are Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. at +450. Truex has four wins already this season. Busch just grabbed his first win two weeks ago at Pocono. Truex doesn’t have a win at Michigan in his career at the Cup Series level, so he’s looking to make some personal history and that is usually a good motivating factor for a driver. Busch only has one win at Michigan and it came back in 2011. Truex may not have a win, but he finished third in each race in 2015. He also finished third in 2013. Since Busch’s win in 2011, he only has one top-five finish at Michigan. That came back in 2013. While they generally have great equipment and run at the front, it may be worth your while to try other drivers this weekend.

Kyle Larson is +550 this weekend. He’s won two straight Cup Series races at Michigan. Larson won the Pure Michigan 400 last year and also won the FireKeepers Casino 400 back on June 18. He was third in the June race back in 206. The break out for Larson over the last year has been very impressive. He had six top-five finishes over the remainder of the season last year, including his Michigan win. He has seven second-place finishes this season to go along with two wins. He’s had no luck the last three weeks with finishes outside the top 25, but there isn’t a lot of contact at Michigan, so a wreck shouldn’t be a problem. He’s run well all year long from a speed standpoint, so he’s a good bet, despite having the lower price as the third favorite.

Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth, and Jimmie Johnson are all +1000 this week. Johnson is safely in the playoffs, so we’ll focus on Elliott and Kenseth. Elliott has 648 points, so he has a five-point edge on McMurray and he’s up 11 points on Kenseth. It isn’t the time to take chances because there are four races left to go this season. In his three career Cup Series starts at Michigan, Elliott has finished second all three times. This has been a very good track for him. Kenseth won this race back in 2015 and also scored a win in 2006, so he knows exactly where the winner’s circle is. He hasn’t gotten to victory lane yet this season, but he has three top-five finishes over his last four races, including second last week on the road course at Watkins Glen. Kenseth was fourth at Michigan in 2015 in the first race and then won the second race. Last year, he was 14th and 13th. He could be a trendy pick given how he has run in recent weeks. Johnson doesn’t have a top-five at Michigan since he won back in 2014 in the early race. His recent finishes haven’t been great at Michigan or this season. He hasn’t been in the top five since he won at Dover.

No offense to Kevin Harvick, but we’ll slide down the board one spot and look at Brad Keselowski. Keselowski doesn’t have a win at Michigan in his career, which is kind of surprising given how well he has been running in recent years. Keselowski has had a roller coaster ride of a season so far. He had seven top-five finishes by the race at Kansas, but only has four over his last 11 races. You can be that the Rochester Hills, Michigan native would love to get back in the winner’s circle. He has five career top-five finishes at Michigan, including a third-place finish last season in this race. At +1250, there seems to be a good chunk of value on the #2 and he might be our favorite play on the board this week.

With Toyota’s incredible rise over the last few years, it’s surprisingly to see that Kenseth’s 2015 win is the only one in the last 10 Cup Series races at Michigan. Chevy has fared very well on the two-mile track, with wins in four of the last six June races and two of the last three August races. That might be pertinent information for those looking at props or matchups.

The Pure Michigan 400 can be seen Sunday afternoon with a 3 p.m. ET start time on NBC Sports Network.

Michigan Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

Who's HOT at Michigan

• Kyle Larson has won the last two races and posted a 1.7 average finish in his last three starts.
• Chase Elliott has finished second in his three starts.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in each of the last nine races, including two wins.
• Kevin Harvick has posted seven top fives in the last nine races.
• Matt Kenseth has one win, 154 laps led and a 9.8 average finish in his last four starts.
• Brad Keselowski has finished ninth or better in his last six of the last seven races.

Keep an Eye On at Michigan

• Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have each led over 350 laps in the last five races of the season and both finished in the top 10 in June at Michigan after leading 40 and 62 laps, respectively.
• Clint Bowyer has finished seventh or better in three of the last four races this season.
• Jamie McMurray has posted three straight finishes of ninth or better at Michigan.
• Paul Menard (12.3), Ryan Newman (13.5) and Kasey Kahne (16.4) are each ranked in the top 10 in average finish among drivers that have raced in all 11 races since Michigan was repaved.
• Daniel Suarez has finished in the top 10 in the last four races this season. Fellow rookie Erik Jones has finished in the top 10 in the last two races.
• Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson each have finished in the top 10 in two of the last three races at 2-mile speedways (Michigan and Auto Club).
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., who posted one of his four top 10s of the year in June at Michigan, had finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts at the 2-mile track.
• Kurt Busch, who won the rain-shortened 2015 June race, has posted an 11.3 average finish in the last three races at Michigan - ranks eighth in the span.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Chase Elliott
Pete Pistone: Kyle Larson
Robbie Mays: Brad Keselowski
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Joey Logano

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Michigan

Chase Elliott has finished second in all three of his Cup Series starts at Michigan. He combined to lead 66 laps at MIS in 2016 and has finished in the top 10 in all five of his starts at 2-mile speedways (Michigan and Auto Club).

Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last nine races at Michigan. He has two wins in that span including the 2016 June race when he led 138 laps. Logano led 24 laps and finished 10th in June for his 10th straight top 10 at 2-mile speedways.

Kyle Larson has won the last two races at Michigan and posted a 1.7 average finish in his last three starts there. He led 96 laps in June on his way to his third straight win at 2-mile speedways.

Brad Keselowski finished 16th in June at Michigan to snap a streak of six finishes of ninth or better there. He posted a 3.5 average finish and combined to lead 24 laps in both races last season. The June finish also broke a streak of nine consecutive top 10s at 2-mile speedways.

Matt Kenseth finished in the top five in both Michigan races in 2015, including a win in the August race. The win marked his last top 10 at a 2-mile speedway. Kenseth, who finished 11th at MIS in June, is one of the hottest drivers as of late, posted the best average finish (5.0) in the last four races on the season.

Martin Truex Jr. started second and led 62 laps en route to a sixth-place finish in June at Michigan. He's combined to lead 135 laps and has a 5.0 average finish in the two races this season at 2-mile speedways.

Jamie McMurray has finished ninth or better in four of his last five starts at Michigan and has failed to lead a lap in the last six. McMurray's June finish was his fifth straight top 10 at 2-mile speedways.

Kevin Harvick finished 14th in June to snap a streak of three straight top fives at Michigan. Harvick has finished in the top five in seven of his last 10 starts at 2-mile speedways. He battled back from multiple issues, including a cut tire, to finish 13 at Auto Club in March. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 929) that he led 292 laps with at Atlanta and raced at Michigan in June.

Kurt Busch has posted a 14.1 average finish in his seven Michigan starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. He won the 2015 June race, which was shortened by rain. This weekend, Busch will return in the same car (chassis No. 1040) that he last finished 19th with at Kansas Speedway.

Denny Hamlin won the June race in 2010 and 2011. Eighty-one percent of his laps led at Michigan came in his first win. In the last five events, Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in three of them, including a fourth-place finish in June. Hamlin has posted a stellar 3.4 average start in the last five races at 2-mile speedways.

Erik Jones finished 13th in his first Michigan Cup start in June. He comes into his home track with two consecutive top 10s and four in his six races this season.

Ryan Newman scored his last of eight top 10s at Michigan in the 2015 August race. He finished 15th in June.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished ninth in June for his seventh top 10 in his last 10 starts at Michigan, including a win in the 2012 June race. This year's finish is one of four top 10s this season.

Austin Dillon finished 27th in June to raise his average finish to 13.8 in the last four races at Michigan.

Kasey Kahne finished 21st in June for his first finish outside the top 16 in the last eight races at Michigan.

Pure Michigan 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

Michigan International Speedway hosts the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series with the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday. This is a race that David Pearson used to love, as he won this thing a record five times. After him, there are four drivers that won this thing three times. As for the active drivers with multiple victories in this race, that would be only Matt Kenseth. Kenseth won this thing in 2006 and then he won it again back in 2015. He’ll be more than excited to get back out there, but so will Kyle Larson. Larson won his first ever Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race in Brooklyn. That was a special moment for him, and he’ll definitely be eager to defend the victory here. The team that has had the most success in this event is Roush Fenway Racing, which had seven victories in the Pure Michigan 400. The manufacturer that won the most was Ford, which was the engine that drove 18 winners here. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might win this one on Sunday:

Martin Truex Jr. (3-to-1) - Truex Jr. is having a ridiculous season, as he has a Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series-best four victories. He also leads all drivers with 15 top 10s. That type of consistency is the reason Truex Jr. is going off at only 3-to-1 here, but it’s also the reason he’s worth taking a shot on. He seems to always give himself a chance to win, and that is huge when you’re making a play on NASCAR. This race is no different, and Truex Jr. will also be fueled to win his first ever Pure Michigan 400.

Kyle Larson (3-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Kyle Larson won his first ever Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race in last year’s Pure Michigan 400. That race seemed to give him the confidence to reach another level as a driver. He has responded by winning two races this year, and he also has a ridiculous seven second-place finishes on the year. Look for him to once again make a run at a win in Brooklyn, and don’t be afraid to take a shot on him at 3-to-1.

Matt Kenseth (18-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Matt Kenseth is the active driver that has the most victories in the Pure Michigan 400. He has won this thing twice in his career, and he actually won one of them as recently as 2015. And although this hasn’t been the best season of Kenseth’s career, he certainly has a chance of winning on Sunday. He has not yet won a race this season, but Kenseth came in second last week. He is inching closer and closer to his first win of the year, and he has a great shot of doing it Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (60-to-1) – Earnhardt Jr. has never won the Pure Michigan 400, but he has been good here in recent years. He didn’t race in last year’s because of concussions, but Earnhardt Jr. had finished inside the top-five in two of his past four appearances in Brooklyn. One of the other races was a 10th-place finish, and the other was a lousy 36th. Still, the good definitely outweighs the bad here and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him win this one. He’s worth a small play at 60-to-1.