Pure Michigan 400 Betting News and Notes

Michigan - Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford Fusion)

· Four wins, ten top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.826, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.046, third-best
· Driver Rating of 100.6, fourth-best
· 315 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.444, sixth-fastest
· 3342 Laps in the Top 15 (74.6), fourth-most
· 952 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, five top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 19.826, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.710, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.5, 12th-best
· 186 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.844, 13th-fastest
· 2824 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1), 10th-most
· 750 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.478, second-best
· Average Running Position of 10.940, second-best
· Driver Rating of 101.3, third-best
· 220 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.567, fourth-fastest
· 3445 Laps in the Top 15 (76.9), second-most
· 983 Quality Passes, series-most

Chase Elliott (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 2.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 4.905, series-best
· Driver Rating of 123.8, series-best
· 31 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.699, second-fastest
· 191 Laps in the Top 15 (95.5), series-most
· 25 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 15.476, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.282, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, 13th-best
· 109 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.071, 10th-fastest
· 2498 Laps in the Top 15 (61.3), 12th-most
· 778 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.565, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.651, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 92.7, 10th-best
· 191 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.265, eighth-fastest
· 2581 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7), 13th-most
· 744 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.478, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.424, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.2, fifth-best
· 432 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.810, series-fastest
· 3100 Laps in the Top 15 (69.2), sixth-most
· 830 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 10.957, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.234, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 102.7, second-best
· 249 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.585, third-fastest
· 3411 Laps in the Top 15 (76.2), third-most
· 930 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 13.000, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.890, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.4, 11th-best
· 65 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.221, ninth-fastest
· 1867 Laps in the Top 15 (68.1), seventh-most
· 510 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, four top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.800, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.950, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 96.7, sixth-best
· 134 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.385, seventh-fastest
· 1829 Laps in the Top 15 (62.2), 11th-most
· 471 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, 12 top fives, 21 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.333, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.103, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.8, eighth-best
· 105 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.043, 11th-fastest
· 2853 Laps in the Top 15 (70.0), fifth-most
· 776 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Pure Michigan 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

There have been 94 previous NASCAR Sprint Cup races held at Michigan International Speedway with the backdrop of the Motor City making it kind of a manufacturer's World Series. Fordleads the all-time battle with 35 wins while Chevrolethas 23 and the new kid of the block, Toyota, has five.

The 24th race of the season takes us to back to Michigan for Sunday's Pure Michigan 400, the second and final race of the season on the wide 2-mile oval.

Historically, the track fact that glaringly stands is that qualifying matters with 56 of the races won from a top-five start position (60%) and 71 races won from a top-10 (76%). The pole winner has won 19 times, including four of the last six races. Those are facts to seriously consider heading into this weekend.

The big story coming in to this week will be the reduced downforce package being applied again just as it was in the first Michigan race June 12 and the Kentucky race on July 9.

The idea with this package that decreases the size of the splitter and spoilers is to create more opportunities for the drivers to pass and create better racing for fans. The cars will not stick as well around the turns meaning it gives the drivers more control of theirs cars, which they love. If they take it too strong into the corners, they'll slip and hit the wall. They'll have to feather the gas pedal gently in and out of turns and find the perfect mix of getting maximum speed without wrecking, making it kind of a tight-wire walk or like driving on ice. It's all on them, but they still need big horsepower.

In the June Michigan race there were 14 lead changes among eight drivers, which isn't all that exciting as intended, but the volatile nature of the package showed up as there were nine cautions. At Kentucky there was 16 lead changes among nine drivers and whopping 11 cautions. It's apparent that quite a few drivers were having some difficulties sticking. All it takes is one mishap around one of the four turns and that's it for their day, and they have to do it error-free for 200 laps.

Surprisingly, a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota didn't win any of those races -- they've won 11 of 23 races this season. It was a Team Penske Ford winning each time with Joey Loganotaking Michigan from the pole and Brad Keselowskiwinning at Kentucky. That alone should give comfort in the idea that someone can beat the Gibbs cars this week, but the books know this too so don't expect chunky prices on the duo. They appear to be ahead of the curve a bit with this package, so let's check out their resume's.

Logano has only one win this season, and that came at Michigan with this package. He's been just a bit behind the Gibbs cars but has still managed to have nine top-five finishes, which is third-best in the series. He's a two-time winner at Michigan (won in 2013, also from the pole) and is currently on a run of seven straight finishes of ninth or better. He likes the track and he likes the package, which is why he should probably be considered the favorite over the Gibbs cars.

Keselowski hails from Michigan and wants to win at his home track more than any other. His career best finish was runner-up in 2012 and he's averaged a sixth-place finish in his last five starts, including fourth with this new package in June. He's currently the series co-leader with four wins on the year.

Now we get to the Gibbs drivers, who have all had some success at Michigan, beginning with Matt Kensethwho won this race last season for his third victory there. He's had a 10.2 average finish in 34 career starts, but his teammate Carl Edwardshas the best average finish (9.5) among all active drivers with at least two starts. Edwards is a two-time winner, the last coming in 2008, and has finished sixth in his past two Michigan starts.

Kyle Busch'sonly Michigan win came in 2011 and has a surprisingly poor 20.4 average finish over 23 starts. But he'll be fast again, you can believe that. The guy has four wins on the season. Denny Hamlinis a two-time winner with a 15.4 average finish.

Two of the fastest cars late in the June Michigan race were Chase Elliott, who finished a career-best second, and Kyle Larsonwho finished third. Both these drivers should be considered to win at 18/1 odds.

Elliott has been struggling of late, but this track should get him back in shape. Larson is just trying to get himself back in Chase contention after falling out of the top-16 last week. Larson could play it safe and not go for the win just to score points, but he's looking for his first career win and if the opportunity presents itself, he'll sacrifice the risk of making the Chase to go all out for the win.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
2) #24 Chase Elliott (20/1)
3) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
4) #19 Carl Edwards (7/1)
5) #20 Matt Kenseth (7/1)

Michigan Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Pete Pistone helps steer you toward Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

Who's HOT In Michigan

Joey Logano: Won the June race and goes into the weekend on a hot streak in the Irish Hills. Logano hasn’t finished outside the top 10 there since 2012, a stretch that includes two victories.

Kevin Harvick: Last week’s Bristol winner is no slouch at Michigan, either. He had a string of four straight second-place finishes in 2013-2014 and was the runner-up in this race a year ago.

Brad Keselowski: Still searching for that elusive first Sprint Cup win at his home track, but Keselowski has been solid at MIS throughout his career. He’s finished in the top 10 in his last five starts and was fourth in June.

Paul Menard: Michigan has always been one of Menard’s strongest tracks and he’s won there in the XFINITY Series. His Sprint Cup resume is not shabby and shows a 12.1 average finish in the last 10 races.

Matt Kenseth: The defending Pure Michigan 400 race winner, Kenseth has a long and successful history at MIS with both Roush Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing.

Who's NOT

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Had a career-high second-place finish last weekend in Bristol, but Stenhouse has his work cut out for him at Michigan - where he’s struggled. His best finish is 15th in seven Sprint Cup starts.

Kyle Busch: Won at Michigan in 2011, but it’s been a rough road since. Busch has an average finish of 25.5 in his last 10 MIS starts and was credited with last place after a crash back in June.

Casey Mears: A 26.8 average finish tells the story for Mears, who has been frustrated at Michigan in his last 10 starts there.

AJ Allmendinger: Needs a "Hail Mary" win to make the Chase, but Michigan will present a tough challenge based on his past performance. Allmendinger has finished 23rd, 28th and 38th in his last three MIS starts.

Trevor Bayne: Another Chase "bubble" driver that, more than likely, has to find Victory Lane in the final three regular-season races to make the "playoffs." Bayne’s average finish is 23.3 in his last 10 MIS starts.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Michigan

Ryan Newman: Trying to use consistent finishes again to make the Chase and Newman has been steady at MIS in recent starts with a 12.2 average finish in his last 10 outings.

Chase Elliott: The rookie led 35 laps and finished second in June at MIS.

Tony Stewart: He’ll make his final Michigan start before heading into retirement at season’s end. Stewart was seventh there in June.

Jimmie Johnson: There’s a win and a second-place finish in Johnson’s last 10 Michigan starts, but he’s had plenty of trouble in recent years including 39th in this race a year ago.

Carl Edwards: Two straight sixth-place finishes at Michigan for Edwards, who has been qualifying very well in recent weeks.

Kyle Larson: It’s getting down to crunch time for Larson in his quest to make the Chase. He had a promising third-place effort in the June race.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Pete Pistone: Brad Keselowski
Jeff Wackerlin: Brad Keselowski
Robbie Mays: Joey Logano
John Singler: Joey Logano

Drivers to Watch - Michigan
By Sportsbook.ag

The Sprint Cup Series heads to Brooklyn, Michigan for the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday. This 400-mile race has been a pretty exciting one to watch over the years, as eight different drivers have won over the past 10 installments.

The only driver to win twice in that span is Matt Kenseth, who could use yet another win after coming in 37th at the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race last week.

One thing worth pointing out coming into this race is that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is still on the sidelines. The driver has not yet gotten over a concussion he suffered months ago and will not be able to race until he is no longer feeling any symptoms.

With that being said, Jeff Gordon is not going to be the guy replacing Earnhardt Jr. in the #88 car and that is bad news for everybody watching.

With that information out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might be picking up some crucial points for winning this thing on Sunday:

Drivers to Watch

Joey Logano (6/1) - Michigan International Speedway has been very kind to Joey Logano in the past, as he has finished in the top-10 at each of the past three Pure Michigan 400s. Logano came in seventh last year, third in 2014 and won it in 2013. He’ll be looking forward to getting out there on Sunday and he’s as safe of a pick as there is in this one. Although Logano is the favorite, his 6/1 odds are still relatively favorable. It also helps to know that Logano has finished inside the top 10 at nine of the past 11 Sprint Cup races. It’s comforting knowing that a guy you’re taking will almost definitely have a shot to win and that is just one of the many reasons to back Logano this weekend.

Matt Kenseth (15/2) - As previously mentioned, Kenseth has already won this race twice in his career and he also happens to be the defending champion coming into this one. He should be feeling pretty poorly after a 37th-place finish last week and will certainly be hoping to bounce back with a win on this track on Sunday. Kenseth also happens to be having a solid season, so holding that poor race against him would not be smart coming into the weekend. He has won two races this season and has a number of other impressive finishes. At 15/2, Kenseth is a play that could end up paying off huge on Sunday.

Field (10/1) - As previously mentioned, Kenseth is the only driver in this year’s race that has truly dominated this event over the years. For that reason, taking the field could represent some good value in this race. At 10/1, you’d get a number of different drivers and they’d also seemingly have a shot with the historically random nature of this event. A guy like Greg Biffle is one that stands out amongst the group included in the field. He has won this race twice in his career and could surely enjoy a blast from the past win on Sunday.

Austin Dillon (40/1) - Austin Dillon is a guy that represents some serious value coming into Sunday’s race. Dillon is receiving some absurd 40/1 odds and that would mean a huge payday if he were to come away with the win on Sunday. It’s not crazy to believe that he is going to do just that either. Dillon is coming off of a fourth place finish at the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race last week and also happens to have come in fourth place in last year’s Pure Michigan 400. He has momentum building from both angles and that should help him compete in this one. Dillon is worth putting a unit or half-unit on for Sunday.