New Hampshire 300 Betting News and Notes

New Hampshire 300 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

This year's NASCAR Playoffs can't be that easy, can it?

It's only one race in the Playoffs, but it went almost as scripted with Martin Truex Jr. winning at Chicagoland for his fourth win on six 1.5-mile tracks and fifth overall. The win gives him a pass in the final two race in the Round of 16. He can simply park his car if he wanted, but he won't. He's going to try and pile up more wins and put his stamp on the season in his quest to win his first Cup Championship. He's the overwhelming favorite to win it all at the Westgate SuperBook at 9/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $180), something Kyle Busch agrees with.

“(Martin) Truex, and he showed us last week already," said Busch who is the 11-to-4 second-choice to win it all. "Just the way they've run. Now they're picking it up everywhere they go to. They're a scary team. They're a threat, that's for sure. If you look at, okay, what is Truex's worst track, Martinsville maybe. Probably a sixth or a seventh, that's it. Everywhere else it's a win. That's pretty scary. For us, I think we look at it as every track is a pretty good track. You look at Talladega as just being an unknown. For us, I feel like Texas is probably our worst place just with the repave, trying to figure out what it takes to be fast there.”

The rest of the drivers are going to have to make their mark on different type of tracks like this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which features a flat 1-mile layout. Of the nine races remaining on the season, four of them will be on 1.5-mile tracks and that's likely going to mean more Truex Jr. Even the Nov. 19 Championship Race at Homestead is a 1.5-mile layout.

But no need to crown Truex yet. Let's at least see how it plays out.

I've been waiting for some drama between the drivers and we got a little bit of it on Friday, albeit coming via Twitter. I guess that's the new way of talking smack in NASCAR. Whatever, I'll take it, because the physical altercations seem like a thing of the past.

Brad Keselowski saw the top-4 speeds in the first Chicagoland practice all being from Toyota and tweeted "We are all in for a rude awakening. Haven't seen NASCAR let a manufacturer get this far ahead since the 70's."

Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, who were both driving one of those top-4 Toyotas, responded with comments of their own and had attached an array of emoji's crying a river. Hamlin basically said "worry about your own program, bro."

The funny part about Keselowski's commentary in the tweet is that Joe Gibbs Racing didn't even win in the first 18 races of the season when Keselowski had won twice, but JGR has now won four in the past nine races and Keselowski hasn't won since April 2 at Martinsville. It's sour grapes and an Internet confrontation, but I'll take it. Better than nothing. Hopefully things get spicier as the stakes become higher; they usually do.

Hamlin should be considered one of the top candidates to win at NHMS on Sunday just because no active driver is better than him there. He loves flat tracks. This is just a bigger Martinsville, but the concept of what makes him successful on a flat paperclip shape is the same. He won his third career race there in the July race and his 10th-place average finish in 23 starts is the best in the Series. Keselowski is next at 10.1 in 16 starts with one win.

Kyle Busch has two NHMS wins over his career and nine Top-5 finishes in 25 starts and leads active drivers with 787 laps led. He was third in this race last season and his last win there was in 2015. At one juncture from 2013-14, he was runner-up three consecutive races. This is a race Busch really likes because of the strategy employed with only 300 miles.

“Essentially, at Loudon (NHMS), you’re looking at how good your fuel mileage is and you have to look at when you have to make your last pit stop, since that’s what everyone looks at," Busch, the native Las Vegan said. "You end up running it almost like a road-course race because you do want to be the first guy on the last round of pit stops to pit. You want to get in there, get your tires and fuel, and then stay out the rest of the race and keep your track position since it’s so important there. It’s just a challenging race because it’s so hard to pass there. You can be two-tenths faster than a guy and not be able to pass him because everyone typically runs the same speed. You’ll have it where the leader might be a tenth (of a second) better than the second-place guy, but everyone is separated by so little that it takes a mistake on someone’s part in order to pass them there.”

There have been lots of different drivers to experience success at NHMS over the years. Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch are all tied with Hamlin's three wins as the most among active drivers. However, I should note that Truex led the most laps (137) during the July race and finished third. He will be a factor again on Sunday.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (6/1)
2) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
4) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
5) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)

ISM Connect 300 Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

For the final time, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will run a second race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the same season. This race will move to Las Vegas next year and The Magic Mile will go down to hosting just one race. The drivers will worry about that next year because the race around the 1.058-mile oval coming up this weekend is a big one for those involved in the ISM Connect 300.

This is the second race of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Sixteen drivers are eligible to win the championship at the start, but we’ll hack four drivers off after each set of three races until four are left standing for the finale at Homestead-Miami in mid-November. Even though 16 drivers are still alive in the standings, full fields are still on hand for these events. With the new points system, a lot of ground needs to be made up by some of the field. Bonus points for the playoffs were awarded based on regular season results, so there are some drivers that face big situations this weekend.

Overall points leader Martin Truex Jr. was already advancing to the Round of 12, but he won last week’s Tales of the Turtles 400 to ensure that he moves on. Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Jimmie Johnson all appear to be safe. Matt Kenseth should be good with 2,039 points. Ryan Blaney is next with 2,034 points. Jamie McMurray has 2,031 points. Kurt Busch is tied with Austin Dillon on the cut line with 2,026 points. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has 2,022 points. Kasey Kahne has 2,021. Ryan Newman brings up the rear with 2,019 points. A win in any of the next two races automatically punches a ticket to the next round, but Busch, Dillon, Stenhouse, Kahne, and Newman all finished outside the top 15 last week, so they need much better runs this week.

Per the odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook, Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite this week at +350. Truex doesn’t have as much incentive as the other drivers to win this weekend, but it never hurts to find victory lane and cash one of those large paychecks. Truex is winless on the Magic Mile, which also isn’t a big surprise because he tends to excel on longer tracks, especially 1.5-mile tracks. That being said, Truex has led the most laps in each of the last two races at New Hampshire, including the one earlier this summer. He finished seventh in this race last year and third in the summer. That third-place finish was his first top-five result at New Hampshire since 2008. He deserves to be a favorite given his body of work for the season, but he is hardly the best bet this week.

It’s hard to make a case against Denny Hamlin at +500. Hamlin runs well on tight tracks and in close racing conditions. He’s a great restrictor-plate racer and has wins on some of the smaller ovals. He won the summer race for the second time back in July and has a win here back in the 2012 fall race. Hamlin’s other win this season came at Darlington, which is a 1.366-mile track. He was the runner-up in this race back in 2015 and was also the runner-up in 2009 and 2010. His other summer race win came way back in 2007. He’s put some time in between wins here, but he’s generally a threat on this track. Joe Gibbs Racing has three of the last five winners in the fall race and each of the last three winners in the summer race, so Toyotas are probably the way to go this weekend. With a win, Hamlin would tie Jeff Burton for the all-time record in wins at New Hampshire with four.

Speaking of which, Kyle Busch is next on the board at +550. He’s a two-time winner of the summer race, but hasn’t been able to win this one during the playoffs. Busch led the most laps last week and won the first stage, but finished 15th after grabbing the pole position. It was a very disappointing result given how the car ran in qualifying and early in the race. That should give him a bit more incentive this week. He was third in this race last year after going two years without finishing in the top five. He was eighth with the most laps led at New Hampshire in last year’s summer race, but he was a non-factor this year in 12th place. Busch is a threat to win every time he gets behind the wheel. He had a good car with a bad result last week. Last year, Busch had six top-five finishes over the final nine races, so he shows up in the pressure cooker races.

Kyle Larson gets some respect on the board this week at +600 for finishing second at New Hampshire in the summer race. Three of Larson’s four wins this season came on two-mile tracks. He’s fared fairly well on the smaller circuits, but he’s better when he can really open it up and let the car go. His second-place finish was sort of the outlier within the last three years. He was third in the summer race and second in the fall race in 2014, but he struggled the following two years. He probably won’t make the card for most this week.

Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Matt Kenseth are all at +850 with a huge drop to Jimmie Johnson at +2000. That means that there is some value on some of the longer shots this week. Kenseth has run well here and was fourth earlier this season, hence the lower price tag for him. He also won this race back in 2013 and 2015. If the odd-numbered trend continues, he’ll cash a nice ticket. Harvick won this race last year. Clint Bowyer is a decent value grab at +4400 since he has two career wins here, although one was vacated due to an illegal car. He was seventh earlier this year.

There have been some weird occurrences in the summer race, with guys like Brian Vickers and Kasey Kahne mostly coming out of nowhere to grab victories. We haven’t seen that much in the summer race so you should look to back a couple of the bigger names and leave it at that.

New Hampshire Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's ISM Connect 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at New Hampshire

• Matt Kenseth has posted a 2.8 average finish in the last five races, including two wins.
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the top five in the last three races, including a win in this event last year.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races, including a win in July.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races and leads all drivers with 401 laps led in that span.
• Kyle Busch has posted an 8.3 average finish and 441 laps led in the last nine races, including a win in the 2015 July race.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in three of the last five races and has led 108 laps in that span.

Keep an Eye On at New Hampshire

• Kyle Larson started 39th and finished second in July for his fourth top 10 in seven starts at New Hampshire.
• Kurt Busch and Johnson each have finished in the top 10 in the last two races at New Hampshire.
• Ryan Newman (3) and Joey Logano (2) are multiple race winners at New Hampshire. Both did not have a good race in July after contact and a mechanical issue, respectively.
• Daniel Suarez (6th) and Clint Bowyer (7th) each finished in the top 10 in July at New Hampshire. The same tire combination that was used in July will be run again this weekend.
• Chase Elliott (9.8 ), Erik Jones (9.8 ) and Jamie McMurray (11.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the last five races of the season, dating back to Michigan.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Robbie Mays: Matt Kenseth
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Kevin Harvick

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at New Hampshire

Matt Kenseth is the only driver that has finished din the top 10 in each of the last five races at New Hampshire. Kenseth, who won this event in 2015 and the summer race in 2016, has yet to finish outside the top five in his last four starts. Kenseth led four laps and posted the fifth-best average running position (6.0) en route to a fourth-place finish in July.

Kevin Harvick finished fifth in July for his fifth top five in the last six races at New Hampshire. He won this event last year after leading eight laps. In July, harvick posted a 5.7 average running position and spent the most laps among all drivers in the top 15 (300). This weekend, Harvick will debut a new car (chassis No. 015) in the ISM Connect 300.

Denny Hamlin is coming off his third win at New Hampshire after leading 54 laps. The win was his third top 10 in the last four races. In July, Hamlin averaged a 3.9 running position, which ranked first among all drivers.

Martin Truex Jr. has combined to lead 401 laps in his last three starts at New Hampshire, which ranks first among all drivers in that span. Truex equaled his best finish at the track in July, leading a race-high 137 laps en route to third place. His 134.6 driver rating in that race topped all drivers.

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in five of the last seven races at New Hampshire, including a win in the 2014 July race. In July, Keselowski failed to lead at lap at NHMS for the first time since 2011. He spent 239 laps in the top 15 and posted an 11.9 average running position in that race.

Kyle Busch has finished eighth or better in seven of the last nine races at New Hampshire, including one win and three runner-up finished. He led 95 laps in July but a pair of speeding penalties relegated him to a 12th-place finish. Even with the penalties, Busch was able to post a 4.7 average running position in the race.

Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last 10 races at New Hampshire, but has only combined to lead four laps in that span. His last of three wins at the track came in the June 2010 race.

Joey Logano finished 37th in July at New Hampshire after a mechanical failure in the rear suspension sent him to the garage for a lengthy repair. The result raised his finishing average to 9.8 in the last six races. Logano won this event in 2014 for his first of four straight top fives.

Kurt Busch has finished fifth and eighth, respectively, in his last two starts at New Hampshire. He ranked fourth among all drivers in July in laps run in the top 15 (282). This weekend, Busch will return in the same car (chassis No. 977) that he raced in July at NHMS.

Kyle Larson equaled his best finish at New Hampshire in July when he took the checkered flag in second. The finish was his second consecutive top 10 and fourth in seven overall starts. Larson posted a 7.9 average finish and 87 green flag passes in the July race.

Ryan Newman finished 27th in July at New Hampshire after contact with another car caused him to spin. The result was his worst finish in the last eight races. Newman is a three-time winner at NHMS with the last coming with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2011. In his seven track starts with Richard Childress Racing, Newman has posted a 14.0 average finish.

Austin Dillon has posted a 14.1 average finish in seven starts at New Hampshire. His best finish - and only top 10 - came in the 2015 July race.

Jamie McMurray has three finishes of sixth or better in the last eight races at New Hampshire. He posted a 12.3 average running position in July en route to a 17th-place finish.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished 14th in July for one of his three finishes inside the top 15 in the last four races at New Hampshire. He completed 81 green flag passes in the July race, which ranked seventh among all drivers.

Kasey Kahne has finished ninth in the last two fall races at New Hampshire. Those two finishes are his only top 10s since finishing fifth in this event in 2012. Kahne, who won at New Hampshire in the July 2012 race, finished 28th this past July, one lap down.

ISM Connect 300 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series for the ISM Connect 300 on Sunday. This is the second playoff race of the year, and Martin Truex Jr. is the driver that won the first. Truex Jr. won the Tale of the Turtles 400 last week, and it was the second time he won that race in a row. He’ll be very confident when he gets out on the track on Sunday, but nobody will be more confident than Matt Kenseth or Kevin Harvick on Sunday. The two of them are the only active drivers that have won this race twice in their careers, as Kenseth won in 2013 and 2015 and Harvick won in 2006 and 2016. The teams that have had the most success in this race are Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing. Each had four victories coming into this race. As for the manufacturer that has been the best here, that would be Chevrolet. The winner of this race has been behind the wheel of a Chevy 11 times, which is a lot more than the five that have won in a Ford. With that out of the way, let’s look at the best picks to win this thing:

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex Jr. is a favorite to win this race on Sunday, but it’s honestly for good reason. Truex Jr. has been driving insanely well as of late, and it’s just hard to go away from the hot hand here. As previously mentioned, Truex Jr. won the Tale of the Turtles 400 last week. He has now won three of his past 10 races and is worth backing once again here.

Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has never won the ISM Connect 300 in his career, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been successful at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Busch has actually won two races at this track in his career, so he should be feeling pretty good about his chances in this one. He also happens to be driving well heading into this one, as he has won two of his past seven races and also came in second in another one.

Joey Logano - This has been a year to forget for Joey Logano, but everybody knows what he is capable of out on the track. Logano is one of the best drivers in the world, and he has actually been better as of late. He came in second at Richmond two weeks ago and then came in seventh at the Tale of the Turtles 400 last week. Logano will be a great value here, as he also happens to have won this thing in 2014.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Dale Earnhardt Jr. only has a few more chances to earn his first victory of the season and what could be his last of his career. While it’s entirely possible that he already won his last race, it’s worth taking a shot on him to win here. Earnhardt Jr. has never won at New Hampshire in his career, so you can count on him wanting to change that before he retires.