Hollywood Casino 400 Betting News and Notes

Kansas - Driver Tale of the Tape

1 - Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.4
2017 Rundown
· Six wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s,
· Led 1977 laps
· Average Finish of 10.6

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· One win, five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.889, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.805, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.4, fourth-best
· 335 Fastest Laps Run
· 3276 Laps in the Top 15 (68.9), seventh-most
· 515 Quality Passes, 10th-most

2 - Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.3
2017 Rundown
· Three wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s,
· Led 651 laps
· Average Finish of 13

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.133, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.577, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.3, eighth-best
· 114 Fastest Laps Run
· 2828 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5), fifth-most
· 596 Quality Passes, sixth-most

3 - Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.6
2017 Rundown
· Four wins, 14 top fives, 19 top 10s,
· Led 1121 laps
· Average Finish of 10.4

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 18.429, 16th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.631, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, seventh-best
· 99 Fastest Laps Run
· 1289 Laps in the Top 15 (68.9), eighth-most
· 298 Quality Passes, 16th-most

4 - Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 105.8
2017 Rundown
· One win, ten top fives, 18 top 10s,
· Led 775 laps
· Average Finish of 12.1

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 8.579, third-best
· Average Running Position of 9.651, series-best
· Driver Rating of 105.8, third-best
· 360 Fastest Laps Run
· 3902 Laps in the Top 15 (77.7), third-most
· 702 Quality Passes, third-most

5 - Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 86.8
2017 Rundown
· Two wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s,
· Led 440 laps
· Average Finish of 11.6

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· One win, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 17.000, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.978, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.8, 12th-best
· 80 Fastest Laps Run
· 3106 Laps in the Top 15 (65.3), 10th-most
· 635 Quality Passes, fifth-most

6 - Chase Elliott (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 80.3
2017 Rundown
· Nine top fives, 17 top 10s,
· Led 402 laps
· Average Finish of 12.4

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· One top 10
· Average finish of 23.000, 27th-best
· Average Running Position of 20.030, 22nd-best
· Driver Rating of 80.3, 15th-best
· 31 Fastest Laps Run
· 312 Laps in the Top 15 (39.0), 20th-most
· 65 Quality Passes, 29th-most

7 - Ryan Blaney (No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.2
2017 Rundown
· One win, three top fives, 11 top 10s,
· Led 287 laps
Average Finish of 18
Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· Two top fives, three top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.400, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.787, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.2, fifth-best
· 44 Fastest Laps Run
· 965 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2), fourth-most
· 148 Quality Passes, 22nd-most

8 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 108.7
2017 Rundown
· Three wins, four top fives, 11 top 10s,
· Led 193 laps
· Average Finish of 15.8

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· Three wins, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 8.526, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.767, second-best
· Driver Rating of 108.7, series-best
· 563 Fastest Laps Run
· 4123 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1), series-most
· 877 Quality Passes, series-most

9 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 87.0
2017 Rundown
· Four wins, 12 top fives, 18 top 10s,
· Led 1677 laps
· Average Finish of 12.1

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· One win, five top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 16.667, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.217, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.0, 11th-best
· 127 Fastest Laps Run
· 2936 Laps in the Top 15 (61.7), 11th-most
· 591 Quality Passes, eighth-most

10 - Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 106.5
2017 Rundown
· Eight top fives, 14 top 10s,
· Led 330 laps
· Average Finish of 14.6

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, seven top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 11.000, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.937, third-best
· Driver Rating of 106.5, second-best
· 367 Fastest Laps Run
· 3949 Laps in the Top 15 (78.6), second-most
· 661 Quality Passes, fourth-most

11 - Ricky Stenhouse Jr (No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 75.0
2017 Rundown
· Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s,
· Led 56 laps
· Average Finish of 17.5

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· Average finish of 18.000, 15th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.339, 16th-best
· Driver Rating of 75.0, 19th-best
· 32 Fastest Laps Run
· 798 Laps in the Top 15 (33.2), 22nd-most
· 162 Quality Passes, 21st-most

12 - Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 72.3
2017 Rundown
· Three top fives, 16 top 10s,
· Led 20 laps
· Average Finish of 13.7

Kansas Speedway Outlook:
· Four top 10s
· Average finish of 21.789, 24th-best
· Average Running Position of 20.170, 23rd-best
· Driver Rating of 72.3, 22nd-best
· 51 Fastest Laps Run
· 1844 Laps in the Top 15 (36.7), 21st-most
· 412 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Hollywood Casino 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Wow, the race at Talladega SuperSpeedway on Sunday really shook up the standings as over half the field wrecked, including Las Vegan Kyle Busch -- one of the favorites to win the championship -- who now has to almost win this week at Kansas Speedway in order to advance to the Round of Eight in NASCAR's Playoffs.

“We’re going to do the same things we’ve always done – same preparation, nothing different," said Busch who is seven-points behind the eighth-place transfer position. "I think we need to go in there and do our best to be prepared and when it comes to race time, try to limit our mistakes. I think that helped out there over the years and that has turned our team into a contender every time we race there, now. We’ll just do the same things this time around. It’s no different than what we typically do each and every week, though. I know Adam (Stevens, crew chief) will have a good M&M’S Halloween Camry and we will keep doing what we’ve been doing well all year long and see where the points fall for us if we can’t get a win.”

I'm told by someone well versed in the situation that Busch has "The Car" this week. We'll see.

Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile cookie cutter layout with moderate banking and will be the ninth of 11 races on those type this season. This will be the second time this season they've raced at Kansas, the first coming in May won by Martin Truex Jr. who also led the most laps. This dude is almost unbeatable on these type of tracks this season. He's won five of the eight races on 1.5s this season, including the last three. The last race on this type of track was at Charlotte two weeks ago, which Truex also won.

It's hard to make a case for anyone but Truex to win this week which is why he's going to be a short favorite. Think of a price like Clayton Kershaw going against a rookie on the Marlins. That's what Truex is this week. Yes, he's the Cy Young of NASCAR on 1.5's. There are 39 other drivers, but no team has these tracks figured like the No. 78 squad.

If looking at past history, you'll see Jimmie Johnson has won three times and Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano have each won twice.

"Obviously we are in a tight spot in the playoffs after last weekend at Talladega," said seven-time champion Johnson who is currently eighth in points. "We know what we need to do in Kansas.”

Kenseth is the active leader with 774 laps led during his 23 career starts. He's started every race at Kansas since the track opened in 2001. His last win came in 2013.

The best long shot of the race is probably Ryan Blaney, who finished fourth there in May leading 83 laps. He also finished fifth there last season. But the entire problem with trying a long shot is that Truex is just so far superior to anyone. Great, I take Blaney at 25/1, he leads some laps, I get my hopes up of cashing and Truex takes over at the end. This Truex guy is taking all the fun out of betting NASCAR.

Chase Elliott is still looking for his first career win, but he's finished third or better in the past three races on 1.5-mile tracks -- runner-up in the last two. But Kansas has been a rough place for him.

“I don’t know," Elliott said. "We have had some really good cars there. We had one of the best cars I think I have ever had in the Cup Series last fall in the playoff race there. Very frustrating to have our tire go down there leading. I feel like we had another good car there this past spring, which was encouraging.”

Elliott is sitting comfortably in sixth-place, one point behind Denny Hamlin, but a bad day like he's had the last two times out -- 29th and 31st -- and he'll be eliminated from the playoffs.

I can't bet a driver at 5/2 odds to win a car race, but at the same time I have a hard time betting anyone else.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (5/2)
2) #21 Ryan Blaney (25/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (4/1)
4) #24 Chase Elliott (15/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (12/1)

Kansas Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

MRN's Pete Pistone gets you ready for Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway with a look at some of the drivers in the field for the last race of Round 2 in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Who’s HOT at Kansas

Kyle Busch: Definitely on the playoff hot seat, Busch heads to Kansas seven points below the cutline to advance to the semifinal round. While earlier in his career, Kansas wasn’t the best place for Busch, he’s been strong of late with an average finish of 4.0 in the last five races including a win.

Kevin Harvick: Right behind Busch on that chart of average finishes is Harvick at 4.8 dating back five races. He has finishes of first, second (twice) and third in that time span.

Martin Truex Jr.: The spring Kansas race winner has been a beast on intermediate tracks this year and that bodes well for the Furniture Row Racing driver Sunday afternoon. Truex has six wins this year and with a spot in the next round of the playoffs locked in, he can go for broke after victory No. 7.

Matt Kenseth: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is only one point behind teammate Kyle Busch on the playoff grid and also faces a do-or-die weekend in Kansas. He has three top-10 finishes in his last five Kansas starts and came home 14th in the Mother’s Day weekend race.

Brad Keselowski: Last week’s Talladega winner also has little pressure in terms of playoff implications, already having a berth in the next round. But Keselowski wants more stage points, and has reason to race hard and follow up his second-place performance at the track in the spring.

Who's NOT

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: He’ll need a major improvement over his previous Kansas experience to have any shot of climbing out of the bottom four in the playoff standings and advancing. Stenhouse hasn't had a top 10 in his last five Kansas starts.

Jamie McMurray: The Chip Ganassi Racing driver will have to throw a "Hail Mary" on Sunday because winning appears his only way of moving on in the playoffs. McMurray is in the basement of the grid but did have an eighth-place finish in May.

Paul Menard: He’s playing out the string at Richard Childress Racing before moving to the Wood Brothers in 2018. Menard hasn’t fared well at Kansas in recent outings with an average finish of just 26.4 dating back to 2015.

AJ Allmendinger: It’s been a miserable year for Allmendinger and the JTG Daugherty driver would like to find some optimism in the closing races of the season to have something to build on for 2018. He’ll have to search hard for that to happen at Kansas after a 30th-place run there in May.

Aric Almirola: Enjoyed a top-five finish last weekend at Talladega. But based on his previous Kansas performances, Almirola and Richard Petty Motorsports need to savor that finish. He returns to the scene of the violent May crash that put Almirola on the sidelines for weeks with a back injury.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Kansas

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Only five more chances for Earnhardt to find Victory Lane in his final Cup Series campaign. He did finish third at the track in 2015.

Ryan Blaney: Doesn’t have a ton of Cup Series experience at Kansas, but Blaney’s been solid in limited starts. The Wood Brothers Racing driver has a 7.5 average finish in four starts including fourth place in May.

Jimmie Johnson: The seven-time Cup Series champion is right above the playoff cutline and will need to avoid disaster Sunday for an opportunity to shoot for title No. 8. He has finishes of first, third and fourth over the last five races at Kansas Speedway.

Denny Hamlin: Right in the middle of the playoff grid, Hamlin has some room for error but not that much. Kansas has not been kind in recent outings as Hamlin’s 23.6 average finish dating back to 2015 indicates.

Kyle Larson: One thing’s for sure. Larson will run up near the wall on Sunday as he usually does most everywhere. He did have a solid sixth-place Kansas finish in the spring.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
Tyler Burnett: Martin Truex Jr.
John Singler: Kevin Harvick

Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Hollywood Casino 400 oddsThe Round of 8 in the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs starts on Saturday, but the Round of 12 wraps up for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series on Sunday, so we’ll have a contrast between the two races at Kansas Speedway this weekend. The Hollywood Casino 400 is this week’s Cup Series race and it is the second time that the drivers will visit the 1.5-mile oval in Kansas City. Martin Truex Jr. won that race and he is favored to win this one as well.

Last week’s race at Talladega was an absolute disaster. Of the 12 drivers vying to advance to the Round of 8, eight finished outside of the top 15. Somehow Brad Keselowski was able to avoid a couple of significant wrecks to come out with the win. He was the only one of the 12 drivers in the playoffs to finish in the top five. Plate races in the postseason are an unnecessary wrinkle since, more often than not, it comes to luck of the draw with the crashes. All of the sudden, Kyle Busch, who won two races in the Round of 16, is on the cut line because he’s finished outside the top 25 in each of his last two races.

The standings shake out like this. Martin Truex Jr. leads with 3,120 points. Brad Keselowski is second with 3,101 points. Kyle Larson is third with 3,096 points. Kevin Harvick is fourth with 3,089 points, followed by Denny Hamlin 3,088 points, and Chase Elliott with 3,087 points. Those drivers should all be safely into the Round of 8.

Ryan Blaney has 3,076 points and Jimmie Johnson has 3,074 points. Kyle Busch has 3,067 points would be the last one out at this point. Matt Kenseth has 3,066 points, followed by Ricky Stenhouse Jr. with 3,052 points and Jamie McMurray with 3,045 points. Those final two are most likely out without a win. So, there is a little bit of drama for this week’s race, to say the least.

The top five spots in the first Kansas race this season went to drivers that are still in the playoff chase, so this should be a good one. The winner of that race was indeed Martin Truex Jr., your +250 favorite at 5Dimes Sportsbook. You can basically auto bet Truex on any 1.5-mile track because he dominates them. He has four wins on 1.5-mile tracks this season and also has one on the long track at Charlotte for good measure. Ironically, Toyota cars with the Joe Gibbs Racing team have won seven of the nine Xfinity Series races on this weekend and four of the seven spring races at Kansas, but do not have a single win in this race. That probably changes this week and Truex is the guy most likely to do it. If you want to nitpick, Truex belongs to Furniture Row Racing, but they’re one and the same.

If not Truex, how about Kyle Busch at +400? The problem with taking Busch is that he has to be careful with how aggressive he is this week. He has to make up seven points, so he’ll have to take some chances, but crashing out of the race would take him out of the running entirely. Busch was fifth at this track in the spring and won the first stage. He won the spring race in 2016. He’s a gamble this week and a lot of drivers will be eager to block him from advancing since he’s such a good racer and his team is so strong. It helps a lot of drivers to keep Busch out of the Round of 8, so the deck is stacked against him a bit.

Kyle Larson is +450 this week. Larson has been fairly quiet lately. He had three top-five finishes in the Round of 16, but was 10th at Charlotte and 13th at Talladega, which was basically a win given how his colleagues in the playoffs did. Larson’s wins have mostly come on bigger tracks this season, with two at Michigan and one in California at Auto Club Speedway. He did score a short-track win at Richmond, which was big. He was second on the 1.5-mile at Kentucky and also in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Atlanta, so he has run well at venues like this, but hasn’t gotten a win. He’s a sneaky look this week, but a decent one.

Kevin Harvick is at +550 and the rest of the field is +1150 or higher. Harvick scored his second career win at Kansas in this race last year, so that explains the price point. Harvick had a great run at Charlotte two weeks ago, as he led the most laps and won both stages, but finished third when it was all said and done. Since he’s safely into the next round, he can be a bit more aggressive, as he searches for his first win since Sonoma. He was third at Kansas in the spring.

With a lot of long shot prices, there are some darts in our hands to throw at the board. It seems like a bad time to count out Jimmie Johnson, right? At +1350, you’re getting a three-time winner at Kansas and this is a track that has only been around since 2001. Another bet at +1350 is Brad Keselowski. Last week’s fortunate win at Talladega was his first since Martinsville way back in the early part of the season. Keselowski was second at Kansas earlier this year and Fords tend to run pretty well there, with Joey Logano’s back-to-back wins in 2014 and 2015 and Matt Kenseth’s in 2012. He can be a bit more aggressive this week with that win in his back pocket.

At +1750, Ryan Blaney is probably the longest odds I would look to take. Blaney has two top-five finishes in the spring race in his Cup Series career at Kansas. He’s one of the few guys going out on Saturday to get a feel for the surface in the Xfinity Series race. He held the pole, finished fourth, and win the second stage in May, so he’s a guy that could be running up around the front of the pack. At the very least, consider a top-five prop on Blaney.