NASCAR predictions, odds and trends for Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Atlanta Motor Speedway Data
Season Race #: 2 of 36 (02-28-17)
Track Size: 1.54-miles
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 24 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 24 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 5 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 2,332 feet
Backstretch Length: 1,800 feet
Race Length: 325 laps / 500.5 miles
Stage 1 & 2: 85 Laps (each)
Final Stage: 155 Laps
Top 10 Driver Ratings at Atlanta
Jimmie Johnson 107.1
Matt Kenseth 98.3
Denny Hamlin 95.5
Chase Elliott 95.5
Kurt Busch 95.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 95.1
Kevin Harvick 94.7
Kyle Busch 93.1
Martin Truex Jr. 92.4
Brad Keselowski 87.7
Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races (18 total) among active drivers at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Qualifying/Race Data
2016 pole winner:
Kurt Busch, Chevrolet
191.582 mph. 28.938 secs. 02-26-16
2016 race winner:
Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet
155.863 mph, (03:15:38), 02-28-16
Track qualifying record:
Geoffrey Bodine, Ford
197.478 mph, 28.074 secs. 11-15-97
Track race record:
Bobby Labonte, Pontiac
159.904 mph, (03:07:48), 11-16-97
Atlanta - Driver Tale of the Tape
Clint Bowyer (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Five top 10s
· Average finish of 22.125, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.927, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.7, 12th-best
· 108 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.887, 12th-fastest
· 2667 Laps in the Top 15 (50.9), 12th-most
· 405 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Three wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.059, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.879, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 95.4, fifth-best
· 275 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.187, 10th-fastest
· 3480 Laps in the Top 15 (62.5), eighth-most
· 608 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 13.588, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.483, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.1, eighth-best
· 244 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.266, eighth-fastest
· 3433 Laps in the Top 15 (61.7), 10th-most
· 570 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One win, ten top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 11.222, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.177, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.1, sixth-best
· 258 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.398, seventh-fastest
· 4030 Laps in the Top 15 (68.4), sixth-most
· 650 Quality Passes, third-most
Chase Elliott (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One top 10
· Average finish of 8.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.785, second-best
· Driver Rating of 95.5, third-best
· 16 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.504, second-fastest
· 306 Laps in the Top 15 (92.7), series-most
· 55 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· One win, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.000, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.208, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.5, fourth-best
· 290 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.457, fifth-fastest
· 3743 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2), seventh-most
· 500 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.944, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.306, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.7, seventh-best
· 380 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.480, third-fastest
· 3677 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4), ninth-most
· 566 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Five wins, 14 top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average finish of 9.611, third-best
· Average Running Position of 8.718, series-best
· Driver Rating of 107.1, series-best
· 358 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.705, series-fastest
· 4996 Laps in the Top 15 (84.8 ), second-most
· 706 Quality Passes, second-most
Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Three wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 20.167, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.331, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.1, 11th-best
· 263 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.004, 11th-fastest
· 3207 Laps in the Top 15 (54.4), 11th-most
· 456 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Ten top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average finish of 9.167, second-best
· Average Running Position of 12.361, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 98.3, second-best
· 228 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.448, sixth-fastest
· 4090 Laps in the Top 15 (69.4), fifth-most
· 610 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· One top five, four top 10s
· Average finish of 20.250, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.078, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.7, 10th-best
· 72 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.235, ninth-fastest
· 1950 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1), fourth-most
352 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· Two top fives, two top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.800, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.076, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.4, 13th-best
· 133 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.606, 13th-fastest
· 1450 Laps in the Top 15 (44.1), 13th-most
· 262 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)
· Two top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.824, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.321, third-best
· Driver Rating of 92.4, ninth-best
· 183 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.472, fourth-fastest
· 4320 Laps in the Top 15 (77.6), third-most
· 717 Quality Passes, series-most
Atlanta 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
As much as I love the Daytona 500, I found myself shouting a few choice words regarding restrictor-plate racing as a few of my drivers wagered on were systematically caught up in the someone elses mess ending their day. It's so frustrating!
But I still couldn't help being thrilled that the NASCAR season was finally happening and most of all that Las Vegan Kurt Busch, who I watched race from his beginnings as a teenager, finally won a plate race. No wins at Daytona or Talladega and it happened in his 17th Cup season.
For the past 15 years I've been saying he's the best plate racer to never win a plate race. The wait for him had to make the victory all the more sweeter and bettors that had faith in him they got paid nicely at 25/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $2,500).
The image that I found most interesting was Busch's retired boss Tony Stewart congratulating him after he won every big race during his great career except the Daytona 500. Stewart-Haas Racing made the decision to leave a successful operation with Chevrolet, one that produced a championship for Kevin Harvick in 2014, for Ford.
So far so good with the move, but the real test for the team will happen this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday's Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500, the first off 11 races on 1.5 mile tracks. Doing well on these type of tracks is the gateway to winning a championship. The Daytona 500 starts the season with a bang, but the real start to see how good all the teams are happens this weekend.
Quality candidates with legitimate shots at winning the Daytona 500 numbered up to 35 drivers because of the draft and cars being equal, but this week at Atlanta that number is dwindled down to maybe only 14 drivers that win.
Of course, the odds will reflect that as well, but the added bonus is getting a normal weekend of practices that actually matter on Friday and Saturday is that you get the final pieces of the puzzle to who will likely win. Even before the qualifying and practices, you can narrow down who the best drivers are by closely looking at what happened on 1.5-mile tracks last year and driver's historical performances at the Atlanta's high-banked 1.5-mile layout.
Just as a refresher to what happened on last seasons 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks, we kind of had different stages of dominance during the year. Jimmie Johnson kicked it all off with his second win in a row at Atlanta to give him five wins in 25 starts, but then he slumped off during the summer before winning at Charlotte and closing out the season at Homestead which gave him his seventh Cup title.
In between the those bookend Johnson wins on 1.5's, it was Joe Gibbs Racing powered engines winning five of the races, Brad Keselowski winning twice and Kevin Harvick winning in October at Kansas. Martin Truex Jr. led a series-high 883 laps between those 11 races and there's no reason to suggest he won't be just as good this season on them.
Towards the end of last season we saw Kyle Larson be a factor on these type of tracks and eventually win his first career race (Michigan). In the season finale at Homestead he led a race-high 137 laps before settling for second-place. I'm looking for Larson to take that next step, but I'll be looking for signs during practices of Friday and Saturday that he'll be just as good as 2016.
Those final practices will be a huge indicator to who will win with my eyes focused on every team. The Stewart Haas Ford's will be my primary focus. Just for reference, Kurt Busch has three career wins at Atlanta which is tied for second-most in the series behind Johnson among active drivers.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (8/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #42 Kyle Larson (18/1)
Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 - Drivers to Watch
StatFox.com
After a chaotic Daytona 500, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Last week, Kurt Busch was the guy that emerged victorious in “The Great American Race”. Busch will now look to win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 for the second time in his career. He won it back in 2002, but that was obviously a very long time ago. The guy that has really dominated this race is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has won the QuikTrip 500 four times in his career, which is tied for the most of any driver all time. It’s also good for the best number amongst active drivers. For those wondering which team has found the most success at Atlanta Motor Speedway, look no further than Hendrick Motorsports. They have won this event nine times, and they have also had a driver win each of the past three races here. Chevrolet, meanwhile, has been the most successful manufacturer in this event, as the winner has been behind the wheel of a Chevy 23 times in this race. The next best make is Ford, which has had 16 victories at the QuikTrip 500 but none since 2008.
Jimmie Johnson - Johnson had a forgettable Daytona 500 last week, as the superstar only finished in 34th. He was part of a 16-car wreck in that one, and will be hoping to have better luck on Sunday. He should have just that, as Johnson will be heading to one of his favorite tracks. As previously mentioned, Johnson has won the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 four times in his career. A win on Sunday would cement him as the best driver ever to race in this event, and he will definitely want to earn that title.
Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch was also involved in a wreck at the Daytona 500, and he came out and ripped Goodyear tires afterwards. Still, expect those tires to work just fine for Busch on Sunday. He is one of the best drivers in the Monster Energy Cup Series, and he has had some success here in his career. Busch won this race back in 2013, and he did so in impressive fashion. He’ll now hope to notch his second ever win in this event, and is worth taking a shot on to do so.
Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne was able to avoid the wreck last week, and he ended up finishing in seventh at the Daytona 500. It was a good start to the season for Kahne, who should be more than excited to get out there for the QuikTrip 500 on Sunday. Kahne is one of the best active drivers in this event, as he was the last non-Jimmie Johnson driver to win this race. Kahne won it in 2014, and he also won it back in 2009. He should be worth a flier on Sunday too.
Danica Patrick - If you’re looking for somebody that might really pay off then that could be Patrick. Patrick drove extremely well at last week’s Daytona 500, but the 16-car wreck ultimately took her out. Patrick ended up finishing 33rd, but that is not indicative of the way she drove. Had she not gotten taken out then there was a good shot that Patrick was going to finish inside the top five. Her car looked very good in that race, and she just might be worth taking a shot on in this one.
Atlanta Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Who's HOT at Atlanta
• Five-time winner Jimmie Johnson has won the last two races and leads all drivers that have made multiple starts with an 10.7 average finish.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 4.0 average finish in his last two starts and has combined to lead 442 laps in the last three races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads all drivers in the last five races with a 6.2 average finish. He's posted a 2.5 average finish in his two starts with crew chief Greg Ives.
• Matt Kenseth has combined to lead 110 laps in his last three starts and has finished in the top five in two of them.
• Kyle Busch, who missed the 2015 race due to injury, has finished sixth or better in three of his last four starts, including a win in 2013.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished seventh or better in four of his last five starts, including the last two with Furniture Row Racing.
• Daytona 500 winner Kurt Busch has finished sixth or better in five of his last seven starts, including a win in 2010 (one of three at Atlanta).
• Joey Logano has finished in the top five and combined to lead 162 laps in two of the last four races.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Atlanta
• The Atlanta race will be the first to feature the 2017 rules package, which features lower-downforce. Logano (Michigan - June), Brad Keselowski (Kentucky) and Kyle Larson (Michigan - August) won the races that used a base package in 2016 that led to this year's rules. Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six Atlanta starts.
• Chase Elliott finished eighth in his first Cup Series start at Atlanta in 2016.
• Ryan Newman, who has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four Atlanta starts, ranked ninth in average finish (13.1) among all drivers that competed in all 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016.
• Larson led 132 laps and finished second in his last start at a 1.5-mile track (Homestead-Miami). He also owns one top 10 in three starts at Atlanta.
• Kasey Kahne has posted a 12.7 average finish in his last three Atlanta starts, including a win in 2014. He also ended 2016 with top-10 finishes in four of the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks.
• AJ Allmendinger has finished in the top 10 in five of his last seven starts dating back to Kansas in 2016.
• Ryan Blaney, who finished second last weekend at Daytona, finished fourth in the Michigan August last season with the lower downforce package.
• Danica Patrick's career-best finish came at Atlanta in 2014 - sixth.
• Denny Hamlin has one win (2012) and has combined to lead 156 laps in his last five starts at Atlanta. He finished 16th last season.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Larson
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Atlanta
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished eighth or better in four of his last five starts at Atlanta, including top-five finishes in the last two events. He finished second in this event last season, which was one of two runner-up finishes in his six starts at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016.
Kyle Busch is a two-time winner at Atlanta with his last coming on 2013. Busch finished third last year in this event for his fourth finish of sixth or better in his last six starts. Last year, Busch led the series in average finish (7.6) at 1.5-mile tracks and won twice.
Chase Elliott finished eighth in his first Atlanta Cup start in 2016. Last year, Elliott posted three top fives and an average finish of 16.5 in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Kevin Harvick by far has led the most laps in the last three Atlanta races with 442. He's finished sixth or better in his last two starts at AMS with Stewart-Haas Racing, including a runner-up in 2015. Last year, Harvick posted nine top 10s in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks, including a win at Kansas Speedway in the fall. He led 128 laps at Kentucky Speedway in 2016, which featured a base version of the 2017 lower-downforce package. Harvick will return in the same chassis (No. 929) that he led 79 laps with from the pole at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Over the off-season the car received several upgrades, including a new Ford Fusion body and front clip.
Kurt Busch won the pole, led 62 laps, and finished fourth last year at Atlanta. Busch is a three-time winner at Atlanta with his latest coming with Team Penske in 2010. Last year, Busch has the third-best average finish (9.3) among drivers that raced in all 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks. His Atlanta finish was the start of six consecutive top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Busch will return in the same chassis he finished 20th with at Texas last fall. The car was outfitted with a new features, including a Ford Fusion body and front clip in the off-season.
Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Atlanta with Furniture Row Racing. Last year, Truex led a series-high 883 laps (392 at Charlotte in May) at 1.5-mile tracks, including 34 at Atlanta.
Matt Kenseth has finished in the top five in two of his last three Atlanta starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. He's combined to lead 110 laps in the last three races and had a fast car in 2016, but finished 19th after a penalty on pit road.
Joey Logano has finished in the top five in two of his four starts at Atlanta with Team Penske. In those two races, Logano has combined to lead 162 laps, including 84 in this event in 2015. Last year, Logano did not score a win at a 1.5-mile track, but did finish in the top five six times, including the last three events.
Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top five in his last three Atlanta starts, including wins in the last two events. Johnson has combined to lead 144 laps en route to the wins, which pushed his win total to five overall at the track. Johnson won three times at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016 and posted an average finish of 8.1. His worst finish (32nd) came in the Kentucky race, which used a base of the 2017 lower downforce rules package, plus the track was newly repaved.
Paul Menard scored his last of three top 10s at Atlanta in 2012 when the race was held in September. Last year, Menard posted a 22.8 average finish in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks. His best finish came in the season-finale Homestead-Miami Speedway - 14th.
Ryan Newman finished 24th at Atlanta after a tire issue, snapping a streak of three consecutive top 10s at the track. The finish last season raised his average finish to 13.7 in three starts with Richard Childress Racing. Last season, Newman finished in the top 10 five times and posted an average finish of 13.1 in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Aric Almirola has finished in the top 15 in his last three starts at Atlanta, including a ninth-place finish in 2014 when the race was held in September. His 15th-place finish last year equaled his best in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016.
Danica Patrick has posted an 18.4 average finish in her five starts at Atlanta. She finished sixth in 2014, which is currently her career-best finish. Last year, Patrick's best finish at a 1.5-mile track came at Charlotte (fall) - 11th. Overall, she posted a 19.6 average finish in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016.
Trevor Bayne has posted a 19.0 average finish in three starts at Atlanta. Last year, Bayne's best finish at a 1.5-mile track came at Kentucky, which used a lower-downforce rules package.
Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts at Atlanta. The finishes outside the top 10 were a results of an engine and an accident. Last year, Keselowski won twice at 1.5-mile tracks, including the Kentucky Speedway race, which featured a lower-downforce rules package.