Daytona 500 Betting News and Notes

Daytona - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Three top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.727, third-best
· Average Running Position of 18.332, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.0, 13th-best
· 98 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.198, series-fastest
· 1791 Laps in the Top 15 (45.8 ), 13th-most
· 2332 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, seven top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.522, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.817, series-best
· Driver Rating of 95.9, series-best
· 96 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.189, second-fastest
· 2836 Laps in the Top 15 (69.7), series-most
· 3243 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· 12 top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.826, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.476, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.9, fourth-best
· 79 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 190.605, 13th-fastest
· 2527 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1), fourth-most
· 3382 Quality Passes, second-most

Austin Dillon (No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.714, series-best
· Average Running Position of 17.197, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 80.2, 10th-best
· 30 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.031, eighth-fastest
· 658 Laps in the Top 15 (53.2), ninth-most
· 974 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Four wins, 13 top fives, 19 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.750, second-best
· Average Running Position of 13.851, second-best
· Driver Rating of 94.1, second-best
· 97 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.102, fifth-fastest
· 2824 Laps in the Top 15 (66.1), second-most
· 3372 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, six top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 17.136, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 14.341, third-best
· Driver Rating of 91.0, third-best
· 90 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.167, third-fastest
· 2353 Laps in the Top 15 (60.2), fifth-most
· 3061 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.542, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 19.768, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 81.8, ninth-best
· 104 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.071, seventh-fastest
· 2084 Laps in the Top 15 (48.8 ), 12th-most
· 2841 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, 11 top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 19.750, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.385, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.2, sixth-best
· 50 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.080, sixth-fastest
· 2740 Laps in the Top 15 (64.1), third-most
· 3354 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No .5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 18.958, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.570, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 82.1, eighth-best
· 74 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 190.850, 10th-fastest
· 2308 Laps in the Top 15 (54.0), eighth-most
· 3379 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, six top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.208, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.517, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.5, fifth-best
· 92 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 190.704, 11th-fastest
· 2563 Laps in the Top 15 (60.0), sixth-most
· 2954 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, three top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 20.733, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.795, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.1, 12th-best
· 56 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 190.667, 12th-fastest
· 1343 Laps in the Top 15 (50.3), 11th-most
· 2221 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, four top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 16.875, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.660, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.4, seventh-best
· 60 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 191.143, fourth-fastest
· 1529 Laps in the Top 15 (54.1), seventh-most
· 2498 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 21.542, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.595, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.2, 11th-best
· 71 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 190.897, ninth-fastest
· 2268 Laps in the Top 15 (53.1), 10th-most
· 3739 Quality Passes, series-most

Daytona 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is back in action, the Joe Gibbs Toyotas look strong and Team Penske has the restrictor-plate momentum. Those are just some of the top storylines as the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series kicks off its 2017 season Sunday with the 59th running of the Daytona 500.

So drop that green flag and let's get this party started, but first let's explore a few notes that can hopefully help assist before dropping a few bucks at the sports book.

DAYTONA 500 EDGE IS WITH BOOKS

Sure it's been a long off-season and sports books are offering dozens of Super Bowl style props, but don't get carried away and over extend yourself. It's only one race and the edge rests with the book as it does with all restrictor-plate races at Daytona at Talladega because it’s a crap shoot. Almost any of the 40 cars has a chance to win because the plates make them more equal than any of the other types of tracks.

You can look at all the past history of Daytona or Talladega to get a read on what drivers fare well, but the volatility of those tracks make it more possible for a driver you wagered on to get caught up in a massive random wreck. It's less likely to happen on a track like Las Vegas or Phoenix, and you also don't have the quality edge of reading relevant practice times like you would on those tracks.

Practices are usually the final equation to nailing down three of four drivers to win, but at Daytona the practices mean little and qualifying means little. Daytona qualifying is set with single lap times which don't equate to anything on race day and the practices are times captured within the draft which don't fully detail the true measure of individual car speeds like those at Phoenix.

Example: When looking at practice speeds and see someone like Paul Menard with the second fastest lap, you don't know if he's really that fast or if he's the product of being in the draft with Earnhardt Jr. or Kyle Busch.

All that uncertainty in the betting process gives the sports book the edge which is why I usually reduce my wagering bankroll with more emphasis placed on odds to win between five or six drivers and less on the matchups and props. However, while I say that, I often find myself getting caught up in the Daytona 500 hype and extend myself more than intended. It's not smart, but sometimes I like rolling the dice when the odds are stacked against me. It's more about being starved for NASCAR action after hibernating for two months.

REST OR RUST FOR JUNIOR?

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has two Daytona 500 wins and is the active leader with 10 restrictor-plate wins over his career which is part of the reason why he's the favorite to win Sunday, where he starts on the front row alongside teammate Chase Elliott.

But as a bettor, you have to wonder how the psyche of Junior will be after missing the final 18 races last season with a concussion and also missing Sunday's Clash. In baseball, when a pitcher comes off the disabled list he's usually a good bet-against. Earnhardt talked to the media about his approach going into the race.

“Of course I’m human, and I’m going to be concerned and worry and (take) precautions, and so forth,” he said. “But to be able to win the qualifying race, and to be able to win the Daytona 500, you’ve got to race with no fear. I know that when I get in the car, I can’t have any concerns. I can’t have any worry or fret, or I’ll drive completely different.

"I know what result I can get driving with no fear, and I know what kind of result I’ll get if I go out there with even a sliver of apprehension. I won’t be able to go out there and win the race. Once you second-guess yourself one time, it snowballs, and it just continues throughout the rest of the race."

William Hill sports books have his ‘over-under’ finish position at 6.5 (OV -135) which is the lowest number in the field.

ISSUES WITH THE CHAMP AND HENDRICK?

Reigning Cup champion Jimmie Johnson failed to finish the Clash at Daytona for the sixth straight season, which has me a little weary about wagering on the two-time Daytona 500 champ as well as his teammates. On two separate occasions Sunday he spun out and it was at the same spot.

“Just off of Turn 4," Johnson said after the race. "The sun certainly sits on that edge of the track a little bit harder than anywhere else. We will take some notes and learn from those mistakes and apply that to the 500 car.”

Hendrick teammate Earnhardt Jr. was in the broadcast booth calling the race and eluded that both he and teammate Elliott had the same problem with sticking around the turn in last season’s Daytona 500 where he finished 36th and Elliott finished 37th. So the question is whether or not the team can make the appropriate changes.

“I would have to assume that it’s relative to the height of the rear spoiler,” Johnson said. "When there is less air and the air is so turbulent back there, the spoiler is so small it’s real easy to get the pressure off of it, and then the back just rotates around. We can adjust rear shocks, rear ride height and try to get more pitch in the car in a sense to keep the spoiler up in the air longer.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has Earnhardt Jr. posted as the 5/1 favorite, Johnson at 10/1, Elliott at 12/1 and Kasey Kahne at 30/1 odds.

TOP MANUFACTURER

The effect of the Hendrick cars slipping and sliding makes the entire team less attractive, which in turn makes Chevrolet less attractive to win the race. William Hill sports books have Chevrolet as the +115 favorite over Ford (+220) and Toyota (+240) in the three-way prop to win the race. The pool of Chevy drivers has also been depleted with Stewart Haas Racing moving over to Ford this season.

Ford won three of the last four plate races last season and Logano won Sunday at the Clash. When adding in the quality SHR drivers who always fare well in plate races like Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer, the best value in this prop is definitely Ford.

However, I love the way all of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers fared during the final Clash practice Friday and also during the race. They we're 1-2-3-4 on the time charts in drafting practice and they stayed that way for most of the final 50 laps during the Clash. What was so impressive about them during the race is that they maintained such an edge on much older tires than eventual winner Logano and his Penske teammate Keselowski.

Chevrolet has 23 Daytona 500 wins followed by Ford with 14. Toyota had its only win last season.

PASSING DIFFICULT

The low line is where all the drivers want to be and it was on display in Sunday's clash where passing on the outside was almost impossible. Get out front and stay out front will be the goal for every driver. The cars this season are basically the same as the past two years. William Hill has posted a prop with number of drivers to lead a lap at 13.5. Last season there 20 lead changes among 15 different drivers with Hamlin leading four times for a Daytona 500 record 95 laps.

Also, there were six cautions last season and William Hill has the number set 9.5. The last nine races at Daytona, including the summer race, have stayed Under 9.5 cautions.

QUALITY LONGSHOT?

Being from Las Vegas, I always have a special allegiance to my Vegas guys and this year I get three of them in the Daytona 500 with Brendan Gaughan making the race on speed during qualifying to join Kurt and Kyle Busch. This is the only Cup race Gaughan will run all season, and he'll be driving the car that Michael McDowell finished 15th with in last season’s Daytona 500. He'll be using his regular Richard Childress Racing Xfinity Series pit crew.

"The only reason I said yes to driving the car was because of the plate racing phenomenon where anything can happen and also because of the huge motor -- that motor was a big factor, " Gaughan said Monday morning. "I'm looking to show everyone (the other drivers) on Thursday during the Twins how big of a motor the No. 75 has."

Gaughan is definitely going to need some help from the other drivers trusting to follow him during Sunday's race so he's going to try and make friends in the Thursday's Can-Am Duels where he starts 17th in the first race.

"We'll push some people (in the draft), and some of them will push me and others will hang me out to dry, but they need to know how big of a motor we have and that the 75 can help them out on Sunday," Gaughan said.

He's 250-to-1 to win the race, and while I'm biased, I also refer back to the 'anything can happen' theory in plate races where I've seen Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Brad Keselowski all win with underfunded teams paying at long odds in the past eight years. If he survives a couple of the pile ups creating a reduced field, gets some help, and a little luck...why not?

DILLON CONSISTENCY

It's always awesome seeing the No. 3 in action at Daytona and Austin Dillon (30/1) has shown total respect for the car number history by being at his absolute best at Daytona. In his six Daytona races since the famed number was brought back in 2014 he's averaged an 8.5 average finish which is better than any other active driver. Earnhardt Jr is No. 2 with a 13.6 average in 34 starts.

WHERE TO WATCH IN LAS VEGAS

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the premiere sports viewing experience in town with its $10 million renovation project that was completed last season and they have informed me that they'll have the Daytona 500 displayed on one of their massive movie screens with the race featured as the main event with sound blaring throughout the book. There isn't a bad seat in the house.

MY ROLL OF THE DICE

After everything I've seen the past two seasons of plate racing and also last week’s Clash, I'm sticking with Joe Gibbs Racing to win this race with the best value offered being Denny Hamlin at 11/1 odds. He finally paid off for me at 12-to-1 in a dominating performance last season, so part of it is loyalty, but the other part is flat out consistency. In his last five Daytona 500's he finished first, fourth, second, 14th and fourth. I was also very impressed with how good he ran on old tires during the Clash and I also believe he has the best support among quality teammates within the Gibbs stable.

TOP 5 FINISH PREDICTION - Daytona 500:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (11/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (13/2)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)

CAN-AM DUEL - RACE 1 PREDICTION:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (4/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (5/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)

CAN-AM DUEL - RACE 2 PREDICTION:

1) #14 Clint Bowyer (15/1)
2) #41 Kurt Busch (12/1)
3) #3 Austin Dillon (15/1)
4) #31 Ryan Newman (18/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5/2)

Daytona 500 Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Daytona Beach for “The Great American Race” on Sunday. The guys that will be most confident when this race begins are Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Each of these three drivers has won this event twice in their careers, and no other active driver has won more than that. The driver with the most success ever here was, however, Richard Petty. Petty has won this race seven times in his career, and it’s possible that number will never be reached. The next highest number of wins in this event is four, and that was done by Cale Yarborough. Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett and Bobby Allison each won three times, which just shows the quality of drivers that were unable to live up to what Petty did in Daytona Beach. Partly because of Petty’s dominance, Petty Enterprises is the team with the most victories in this race. Chevrolet, meanwhile, has been the most successful manufacturer, as a driver has won 23 times behind the wheel of a Chevy. With that out of the way, let’s see who represents the best value in picking up a monumental victory on Sunday:

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5-to-1) - 2016 was a rough year for Dale Earnhardt Jr., as the superstar dealt with concussions and wasn’t able to race at the end of the season. Now he is seemingly as healthy as ever, and he’ll be hoping to have a big year in 2017. That starts with a good performance at Daytona International Speedway, where “Junior” has been as good as any of his competitors over the year. Look for him to start the year off with a bang, and don’t be afraid to put a couple of units on him at 5-to-1. He could pay off huge and it’s very tough to imagine him struggling.

Jimmie Johnson (10-to-1) - Jimmie Johnson was last year’s champion, and he is getting some inviting odds at 10-to-1 on Sunday. While there have been some issues with Johnson over the years, he has proven that he is still one of the best drivers around. He has won seven of the past 11 seasons, and it’s hard to imagine him slowing down now. Taking a shot on him to win this one is a good idea as well, as Johnson won this thing back in 2013, and he has also finished in the top five in two of the past three races in Daytona Beach.

Matt Kenseth (12-to-1) - Matt Kenseth might be struggling in this race recently, but he has had tremendous success here in the past. As previously mentioned, Kenseth has won this race twice in his career. That should really offset what he’s done the past two years (35th in 2015, 14th in 2016), as knows what it takes to get the job done in Daytona. It also helps that Kenseth is coming off of a year where he finished in fifth in the standings, and his 12-to-1 odds are very favorable.

Trevor Bayne (60-to-1) - If you’re looking for somebody that could really pay out nicely this weekend then look no further than Bayne. Bayne has won only one race in his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series career, but that one victory came here in 2011. He also happened to have had the best season of his young career in 2016, so he is trending in the right direction coming into this year. Putting a half-unit or even a quarter-unit on him could be the move this weekend.

Daytona 500 Betting Preview
By Greg Engle
Covers.com

So it begins. After a short winter break, NASCAR betting is back on track with the season opening Daytona 500 Sunday.

There have been a few rule changes in the offseason, some affect bettors, most do not. These changes will debut with the Daytona 500 but one thing remains the same: the racing on the track.

Here are some tips and tactics to consider when betting the Daytona 500 odds:

Set the stage

Drivers will tell you that they’re always trying to win, but with Daytona being a restrictor plate track, there’s still (and always has been) a huge element of luck. We may have a repeat winner Sunday or a first timer. In the last few years, we’ve had both.

You can’t really bet on who will lead the most laps this year, but you can bet on who will win one of the three race stages – a new rule to NASCAR this season. As competitive as drivers are, there will be a great deal of motivation to be the “first”. That is the first driver to win a stage. The stages for the Daytona 500 are laps 60, lap 120 and the final lap, 200.

Who will be the early leaders and thus be in a spot to win that very first stage at lap 60? Based on recent history the Joe Gibbs Racing stable is an early favorite. Among that four-car team is last year’s Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin (+1000). He’s looked strong all week and was half a lap from winning last Sunday’s Clash before getting swept up in a crash with Penske Racing driver Brad Keselowski (+600).

Manufacturer success

Chevrolet has the most Daytona 500 wins at 23, followed by Ford with 14 and Toyota has two - the last coming with Hamlin behind the wheel of a Toyota last season. This week, however, Fords have been fast. But two Hendrick motorsports Chevrolets took the first two starting spots last Sunday. Chase Elliott (+1800) won his second consecutive Daytona 500 pole, with his teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+600) securing second.

Junior is back

And speaking of Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR’s most popular driver is back after missing the second half of last season recovering from a concussion. He’s as fast as ever and has won the Daytona 500 twice. After getting medical clearance to race and getting married in the offseason, Junior looks happy and confident.

History lesson

Earnhardt Jr. is one of two race favorites, along with Keselowski, but anything can happen at any time during the Daytona 500. Given that unpredictability, choosing who will win each stage and who will win the race can best be done by looking at who has been strong here in the past.

Keselowski won the July race at Daytona, the last time the Cup series was here, and Earnhardt’s prowess at restrictor plate tracks is well known. Also strong here is Matt Kenseth (+1500), Kevin Harvick (+1200), Joey Logano (+800), who won his Daytona 500 just two years ago and won last week’s Clash. For the record, Hamlin won the Clash and the 500 last season. Prior to that Jeff Gordon was the last to do so, and that was in 1979.

Pole profits

The pole position is the most proficient starting position in the Daytona 500 field, producing more winners (nine) than any other position, followed by second-place (seven wins) and fourth-place (seven wins). Kenseth won the Daytona 500 from the 39th starting position in 2009, the deepest a race winner has started.

Championship swagger

Five reigning Cup Series champions have gone on to win the Daytona 500 the following season: Lee Petty (1959), Richard Petty (1973), Cale Yarborough (1977), Jeff Gordon (1999) and Dale Jarrett (2000). Jimmie Johnson (+1200) is this year’s reigning champion and he’s won two Daytona 500s so...

In the loop

One final stat NASCAR bettors should pay attention to when betting the Daytona 500 odds is loop data. The Driver Rating is based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines "loop data" elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, etc. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race.

Factoring in history including Daytona wins, with Driver Ratings here are the Top 5 safest bets to win the Great American Race Sunday:

1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+600): Has the second-highest driver rating in the field and two 500 wins.

2. Denny Hamlin (+1000): The defending winner and has the third-best driver rating, 91.0

3. Matt Kenseth (+1500): Has two Daytona 500 wins and the fifth-best driver rating of 88.5

4. Joey Logano (+800): Won the Daytona 500 in 2015 and has seventh-highest driver rating, 87.4

5. Kyle Busch (+1200): Has only one Daytona win and that came in the summer race. He has the highest driver rating in the field at 95.9 and seems due.