Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 21

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 21

Wunderdog

Detroit @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +130

The Tigers are playing well, and always show as an overvalued team when Justin Verlander takes the mound on the road. Verlander has compiled a 90-45 mark as a home favorite and plus money, but he has been negative money on the road as a favorite, and the Tigers have won just 5 of his last 14 starts in the role of a road chalk. Verlander owns a 4.26 ERA against the Tribe - his highest mark vs. any AL team, and is just 9-10 here with an ERA of 5.26. Cleveland will go with rookie phenom Trevor Bauer who has a 1.50 ERA in his lone start. The Tigers are a woeful 3-9 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. a losing team, while the Tribe owns a 21-10 mark vs. a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Go with Cleveland.

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Tony George

LA Dodgers -123

Getting good value on the line at this price tonight for moneyline wagers and you have to love LA in this spot tonight.  Although the Mets have some offense I doubt they rough up Ryu who takes the hill tonight, they guy has been MONEY on the road this season, not allowing an Earned Run yet!  The Dodgers are 15-9 on the road. They have won 5 in a row against the Mets and 9 out of the last 10 dating back to July of 2012!

deGrohm for the Mets has had 1 start and his ERA is very low in that start, however he has no faced an offense as potent as the Dodgers and LA lights up southpaws to the tune of .279 as a TEAM against them YTD!  Add in the fact LA blew these guys out last night and have won 7 out of 8 in the Big Apple and the Mets are just 2-7 SU off a loss their last 9 losses.  Like the offense of LA here to win it as they are ranked 9th overall in MLB and they also rank first in stolen bases.  The Dodgers 2 games out of 2nd place in their division and look to sweep this series overall and gain some ground on the Rockies.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +118 over BOSTON

The Red Sox have dropped five in a row and six of seven. Against Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Scherzer and the Tigers pen, Boston scored three runs over this past weekend in losing all three. Against Phil Hughes and J.A. Happ in the other two games of their current losing streak, the Red Sox scored five runs (4 off Happ and 1 off Hughes). Boston’s longest winning streak this season is two games and things certainly don’t get easier against Drew Hutchison and a Blue Jays team that is playing well. Nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery that shelved him for most of 2013, Hutchison earned a spot in the Jays rotation after producing a 1.80 ERA this spring. He's always flashed big strikeout potential and currently leads the Blue Jays staff in Ks with 55 in 54 IP. He's shown no ill effects from going under the knife, as he's punching out nearly a batter per inning while posting an impressive 11% swinging strike rate. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph in '12 to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. An unlucky 69% strand rate gives his 3.64 ERA even more room for improvement. Hutchison is coming off a complete game, shutout gem in Texas in which he surrendered just three hits and threw just 105 pitches. This kid is the real deal that most of the Red Sox have never faced (Ortiz, Napoli and Nava are a combined 0-7 against Hutchison).

Meanwhile Clay Buchholz has been tagged for 20 hits and nine earned runs over his last 10.1 innings. In three starts at Fenway, covering just 16.2 innings, Buchholz has been tagged for 23 hits and 13 earned runs. Buchholz has a 1.80 WHIP after eight starts. His WHIP over his last five starts is 1.85. Over his last 26 innings he’s walked 12 and struck out 18. Last season Buchholz opened the year 9-0 with an ERA under 2.00 but that stellar start was not entirely supported because of a high strand rate and low hit rate. This season his luck has been bad but his skills have shown a serious decline right across the board. Buchholz has a history of poor health (220 days on DL over the past three years) and it may be safe to assume he’s still not 100%. At any rate, facing the hot-hitting Blue Jays isn’t likely going to be the remedy for him to get right-sided.


ATLANTA -1½ +158 over Milwaukee

We could spot a run and take-back a tiny price but we’ll elect to go with spotting the extra half run because the Brewers are reeling and the Braves are gaining steam. The pitching matchup also favors the host. Milwaukee has lost four straight. The offense has gone cold with just five runs scored over their past four games. The Brewers have been outscored in the first two games of this series 14-3 and now they’ll face the resurgent Earvin Santana. Santana has struck out 46 and walked just 10 in 46 innings. His 14% swinging strike rate bodes well here against a free swinging Brewers team that has struck out more times over the past 10 games (90) than any team in baseball. Santana's 20/2 K/BB ratio at home should mean lots of strikeouts and few walks. He's also been dominant at Turner Field with a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.

Kyle Lohse is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.88. On the road, Lohse is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.52 but it’s near impossible to believe any of it. Lohse continues to outpitch his skills. His exquisite control still leads the way but his profile highlights his risk. Lohse has a mid-80’s fastball. His average K rate and slight groundball tilt (42%/37%) is not strong enough to keep his ERA under 3.00. One must give Lohse credit for continuing to outperform by making good use of five pitches and providing consistency from start to start—a fact that has helped deliver at least 20 quality starts each of the past two years. However, Lohse is not going to bring anything to the table here that the Braves haven’t seen before. Current Braves have faced Lohse 126 times and have hit a combined .270 against him. Lohse has avoided disasters this year entirely by allowing three runs or less in every one of his nine starts. The greatest pitchers in the game can’t go long stretches without getting whacked (see Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka last night) and now that the Brewers have lost momentum it’s Kyle Lohse’s turn to get whacked. This could very well be that turn.


Chicago +107 over KANSAS CITY

Shame on the Royals. The White Sox came into this series having lost three consecutive series and they also lost Jose Abreu to an ankle injury. With an opportunity to improve their record and catching the South Side at the right time, K.C. failed to win against Scott Carroll on Monday after blowing a 5-0 lead and they failed to win yesterday with Yordano Ventura going. Now the pitching matchup does not favor them in the least. Jeremy Guthrie has 27 K’s in 59 innings. He also has an ERA of 4.76 which is right in line with his xERA of 4.61. You can see from Guthrie's ERA and hit % history that only good fortune (2010) can nudge his ERA under 4.00. Two things he excels at: eating innings and generating work for defenders behind him. We would love to see pedometer readings on his defense compared to a Shields or a Ventura start. The bottom line is that Guthrie has a better chance of losing than he does of winning every single time he takes the mound.

The White Sox are clearly happy with Jose Quintana’s progress, as they recently signed him to a five-year contract extension. While the 25-year old Quintana does not garner the headlines, he’s posted solid numbers in his first two years so it’s not surprising that the White Sox like what they see. Quintana shows improvement with nice gains in control, strikeouts and groundball %. Quintana really broke out in the second half of last season, as he posted a 65%/6% dominant start/disaster start split over 17 second half starts. His fastball velocity is up a tick but the major difference is an increased pitch mix. Quintana has a repertoire that matches Zack Greinke’s. He’ll use five different pitches at any time in the count and his strong five-pitch mix has been equally effective against both RHB and LHB. Quintana has a strong BB/K split of 15/45 in 54 frames. His ERA of 3.67 is supported by his xERA of 3.59. With his skills surging to elite levels, he's got the ingredients for an outstanding season and he’s a much better option taking back a tag than Guthrie and the Royals are spotting one.


Houston +164 over L.A. ANGELS

The Astros are a pesky group that remain undervalued. Indeed they’re young and have some flaws but they make up for it with their enthusiastic and competitive nature. The Astros have won five of their past seven. In those five wins they have scored 32 runs and they’ve added a strong running game to their arsenal (they lead the majors with a 14% stolen base opportunity). With a take-back like the one offered here and with Colin McHugh going, the Astros once again offer up some nice value. McHugh is 2-2 with 3.48 ERA after five starts. He has a strong BB/K rate of 10/34 in 31 innings. His WHIP of 1.06 and high strikeout rate is fully supported by his elite 14% swinging strike rate. In two road starts, McHugh’s ERA is 1.38 and he’s accomplished all of this with an unlucky strand rate of just 68%. No question, the risk is worth the reward.

That brings us to Jered Weaver. Weaver has been profiled by us as a gamble in recent years due to his declining four-seam fastball velocity and corresponding dip in strikeouts. In 2010, Weaver’s four-seamer was 90.1 MPH. In 2011, it dipped to 89.2 followed by 88.0 in 2012, 86.8 in 2013 and this year it’s at 86.2. If Weaver had a groundball pitch in his profile we could understand the strong stats he’s posted, but that isn’t the case. Weaver’s groundball/fly-ball split is an uninspiring 37%/48%. He has posted a near-50% FB% in four of the past five seasons and his line drive rate trend suggests that he is being hit harder and harder: 16%, 19%, 21%, 22%. Weaver has an ERA of 3.14 after nine starts but that ERA is NOT supported by his declining skills. For whatever reason, Weaver has been able to out-pitch is skills for years and it’s just one of those anomalies that has no explanation other than extreme luck. Perhaps Weaver will thrive again tonight but it’s worth noting that he faced the Astros in Houston in his second outing of the season and they got to him for five ER in 5.2 IP. Frankly, we don’t care what the surface stats say. The beneath the surface stats, that eventually always catch up, say that Jered Weaver is a very average pitcher in this league and we’ll continue to fade him when he’s overpriced, as he is here.   

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 21

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles +104

The Baltimore Orioles (23-20) find themselves atop of the AL East Division after their 9-2 trouncing of the Pittsburgh Pirates (18-26) in Game 3 of this interleague series Tuesday.  The Orioles go for the season sweep now after taking the first three meetings by a combined score of 20-8.

I like their chances of pulling it off in Game 4 due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.  Chris Tillman is one of the better starters in the league that not too many folks know about.  He has gone 4-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in nine starts this season to pick up right where he left off last year.

Wandy Rodriquez has been on a steady decline over the last couple of seasons.  The left-hander has really struggled in 2014, going 0-2 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts.  He has given up 12 earned runs over 14 innings in his last three outings.

The Orioles are 6-0 in their last six vs. NL Central opponents.  Baltimore is 6-1 in Tillman's last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Orioles are 16-5 in Tillman's last 21 starts as a road underdog.  Baltimore is 20-7 in Tillman's last 27 road starts overall.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Rodriquez's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

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Will Rogers

LA Dodgers vs. NY Mets
Pick: LA Dodgers

Last night, I had the Over in Dodgers-Mets.  Tonight, I'm going with the Dodgers.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hyun-Jin Ryu - Assuming tonight's game will be lower scoring than last's, I expect the runs to come off the Mets' "pile."  This is because of their terrible offense going against Ryu, who makes his return from a month-stay on the disabled list tonight.  Ryu has gone 26 straight innings without allowing a single run on the road, going 3-0.

2.  Mets' Offense - They have the 2nd worst team batting average in the National League (.229) and are dead last in MLB in slugging.   They've scored only 14 runs total the last six games.

3. X-Factor - Don't look now, but Yasiel Puig seems to finally be getting his act together. He's hit safely in 17 of the last 18 games, producing a .411 batting average with six home runs and 22 RBI's.

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Teddy Covers 

Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Over 7.5

My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket winner on the Marlins Over last night, and Miami Overs remain a streak worth riding!  Under-the-radar MLB totals trends offer enormous potential for bettors.  The betting markets don’t seem to notice Over/Under streaks, nor do the national media. 

No talking head will tell you that Miami is 9-2 to the Over in their last eleven ballgames; 28-15 to the Over for the full season; the single strongest Over team in the majors this year.  Yet all 46 of the Marlins previous games this year have been totaled at 8.5 or less; 41 of those games totaled at 7.5 or less, including tonight’s contest.  Quite clearly, the markets are behind the curve when it comes to Marlins totals.

Unders begat unders; Overs begat overs.  Hot hitting lineups don’t get cooled off without ace pitchers to shut them down.  Overworked bullpens don’t magically become effective.  That’s why these ‘under-the-radar’ MLB totals streaks are so strong to bet, because previous results (hot lineups & overworked bullpens in particular) actually DO have an impact on future results.

The Phillies lineup has broken out in a big way after an extended slump, pounding out 26 runs in their last three ballgames.  They scored four runs in six innings against Nathan Eovaldi in their lone previous start against him this season, another Over cash. 

The Marlins have produced five runs or more in 15 of 23 previous home games this year, leading to a 15-6-2 (71%) string of Overs here in Miami.  That’s a streak worth riding against winless Kyle Kendrick and his gopher ball ways, allowing at least one home run in each of his last seven starts.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Oklahoma City/ San Antonio Under 212: Just can't see the Thunder getting in another running game with the Spurs. They can't win that type of game with them. I also can't see the Spurs continuing to push the tempo as we all know this is a team that likes to conserve energy and they should do just that, especially if they get up big in this game. The Spurs have allowed just 97.3 ppg at home and while the Thunder have allowed 101.1 ppg on the road, teams have only shot 43.9% against them away from home. This should not be as uptempo as game 1 was. both teams have had time to adjust now and that usually means on the defensive end. I look for this on to be played under 205 points.


3 UNIT PLAYS

LA Dodgers -145 over NY Mets: The Dodgers have been a very good road team so far and have Ryu on the mound, who has yet to allow an ER in 4 road starts this year so far. He will not be taking on a good Mets offense, so I don't see him allowing them too much in this one. The LA offense has been solid this year and while they have never seen this pitcher I don't thin that will faze them at all. Heck last night they faced Rafael Montero, who they had never seen before and tagged him for 5 ER's on 7 hits in just 4.1 innings of work. This offense can hit just about anyone and I expect them to do so here. The Dodgers have a clear cut edge in offense and on the mound and have played better on the road, than the Mets have at home. I look for LA to take Game 2 of this 3 game set.

Atlanta/ Milwaukee Under 7 (-130): This has been a low scoring series, as 9 of the last 11 meetings have seen 7 runs or less scored. Game 1 of this series put up 12 runs, but game 2 reverted back to the recent history of this series and I see that happening tonight as well. Kyle Lohse has pitched very well this year with a 2.88 ERA overall, including a 2.47 ERA in his last 7 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in any start this year and in his last 3 starts vs the Braves he has posted a 2.07 ERA. Atlanta has scored 14 runs in the first 2 games of this series, but this is still an inconsistent offense that has averaged just 3.5 rpg at home for the year. The Brewers do score 4.18 rpg on the road, but Ervin Santana has been awesome in his new home, posting a 1.66 ERA in his 3 home starts this year. The Under is 13-3-1 in Atlanta's last 17 home games overall, and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Both trends should continue tonight.

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Hollywood Sports

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Cincinnati (20-24) is just not 9-14 on the road this season. The Reds have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And Cincy has lost 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Washington (24-21) has won a decisive 52 of their last 73 home games against teams with a road winning percentage below 40%.

More recently, the Nationals have won 5 of their last 6 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Take Washington with the money line in this one (without listing starting pitchers Alfredo Simon and Tanner Roark -- but check out Frank's Getaway Game Total of the Month to get his take on how they both will perform).

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LT Profits

Oklahoma City vs San Antonio
Pick: Over 210

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals saw the San Antonio Spurs coast to a 122-105 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder as the absence of Serge Ibaka has already proven to have a huge impact in this series. You see, the Thunder swept all four regular season meetings with the Spurs with the defensive specialist Ibaka in the lineup, but without him Tim Duncan got whatever he wanted with 27 points and San Antonio was able to outscore the Thunder 66-32 in the paint. We do not see anything that the Thunder can do with their current personnel to keep the Spurs out of the paint again, so they may have to simply rely on trying to outscore San Antonio. It helps if they continue their hot-shooting from three-point land where they were 44.4 percent in Game 1. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in the Spurs’ last eight games following a straight up win.

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Jeff Alexander

LA Angels -178

The Astros are 17-44 in their last 61 overall and 63-160 in their last 223 road games.  They are 11-40 in their last 51 games versus teams with a winning record.  The Angels have won 9 of 12 and are 53-26 in Weaver's last 79 starts and 39-14 in his last 53 home starts.  The Astros are just 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.

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Dave Price

Miami Marlins -133

Kendrick has a good track record against the Marlins despite them batting a pretty solid .260 against him.  He's been helped out by good run support, but that can't be counted on with Eovaldi toeing the rubber.  He's holding opponents to a .225 average this season at home where the Marlins are 21-6 in their last 27 and 8-1 in their last nine versus a right-handed starter.  The Marlins are 6-1 in Eovaldi's last seven home starts while the Phillies are 2-7 in Kendrick's last nine road starts.

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Steve Janus

Tampa Bay Rays +102

I like the Rays a lot in this spot as they are showing great value as a small home dog against the A's. Tampa Bay will clearly be motivated coming off three straight losses and they have just the starter to get them out of their funk. Erik Bedard has a sensational 0.79 ERA over his last 4 starts and hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 15 2/3 innings of work. While Bedard comes throwing like a Cy Young contender, Oakland's Tommy Millone is just 1-3 with 4.10 ERA over his first seven starts and the A's are just 1-6 when he has taken the mound. Adding to this is the fact that Millone has a history of not pitching well against the Rays, as he's just 1-2 with a 7.13 ERA versus Tampa Bay.

Key Trends/System - Oakland is just 1-6 in Millone's last 7 starts against the AL East, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts and 0-4 in his last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. Despite losing the series opener, Tampa Bay is 13-4 in their last 17 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. That's a 27-5 (84%) system telling us to BET TAMPA BAY +102!

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Bob Balfe

Minnesota Twins +120

The Padres just can’t hit the ball. When you bet them everything has to go right in order to cash a ticket. If the opposing team scores 3 runs or more they usually lose the game. The Padres should not be favored this high when Phil Hughes is on the mound for Minnesota. Hughes strikeout to walk ratio has been amazing and in his last 3 starts he has not walked a single batter. That is a big key when facing an offensive team that doesn’t have much power.

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Wunderdog

Giants / Rockies
Pick: Under 10

We've got the highest total on the board tonight in Coors Field, but the Giants are in town with great pitching and defense. San Fran is on a 22-9-2 run UNDER the total and the UNDER is 34-15-3 in the Giants' last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. San Fran righty Matt Cain (3.92 ERA) is throwing well with the team 2-1 his last three starts. The last three years Jhoulys Chacin has been fine in Coors Field, with a 17-14 record and a 4.19 ERA. And he knows his opponent as the UNDER is 3-1-1 in Chacin's last five starts against the Giants. When these teams meet the UNDER is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings, including 9-1-1 UNDER the total in the last 11 meetings in Colorado. Play the Giants/Rockies UNDER.

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Harry Bondi

SAN FRANCISCO (+105) over Colorado

Giants suffered one of their, and our, toughest loses of the baseball season when the Rockies scored two runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth last night. We expect San Francisco, and the Steam Team, to bounce back big tonight and it helps that the Giants hope to have both Buster Posey and Angel Pagan back in the lineup tonight. It also helps that San Francisco is 8-2 when tonight’s starter Matt Cain starts against Colorado. Bounce back for the Giants.

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Joe Gavazzi

LA Dodgers -1½ +140

The Dodgers have owned this series, winning 10/11 recent games from the Mets. LAD bats have come alive of late, averaging 5.7 RPG after last night's 9-4 romp over the Metropolitans. New York has hit yet another slump with a 1-6 recent record, in which they scored only 14 runs and hit .207. deGrom will not be as successful in this outing as he was against the Yankees. Ryu takes the mound for the first time since April 27th. He has been doing rehab to alleviate shoulder inflammation. But, he has been cleared to start today with no restrictions. Ryu has been outstanding on the road this season, where in 4 starts spanning 26 IP, he has allowed only 17 BR and no earned runs. That work includes 23 Ks and a .176 BAA. In a pair of starts against the Mets, Ryu has been most successful, spanning 14 IP, Ryu has a 1.29 ERA and a .167 BAA. Run line players take note, 19 of 24 LAD wins have been by 2 or more runs, including 12 of 15 on the road. Play the Dodgers on the run line.

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OC Dooley

Padres -140

Both of my personal baseball investments today have been triggered in part by the ODDSMAKERS who have cast San Diego as a prohibitive home favorite even though they are facing an opponent thriving on offense and also sending a red-hot pitcher to the mound.  In the past seven games Minnesota as a team have a high batting average (.295) while knocking in 30 RBI and collecting 21 different “extra” base hits. On the mound this evening Minnesota is going with the red-hot Phil Hughes who has WON four consecutive decisions while posting a brilliant ERA (1.95) in his last five mound assignments. But this is the same Phil Hughes who used to be “untouchable” in the Yankees system before the Bronx Bombers finally gave up on him.  In last night’s series opener Twins starter Kevin Correia had special motivation facing his ex-team, but that is not a factor in this particular contest.  As mentioned earlier one has to wonder why San Diego (current 2-4 skid) has been cast as a prohibitive favorite especially since in this Interleague series dating back to the 2008 campaign they are a disastrous 0-7 when facing Minnesota.  Thus I am for the second time on the diamond today following the ODDSMAKERS lead

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 21

Harry Bondi

HOUSTON (+150) over Seattle

Let's take advantage of a severe overlay on Seattle and cash a big underdog with Houston tonight! Astros are one of the worst teams in the league and will likely be without super prospect George Springer tonight but they have played .500 baseball over the last 10 days and have the better pitcher going tonight. Houston's Jarred Cosart has won his last two starts while Mariners rookie Roenis Elias has struggled in his last pair of outings losing both. Better pitcher at +150 we can't resist regardless of how bad Houston is, take the Stros!

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