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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

Jimmy Boyd

Utah St. at New Mexico
Play: Utah St. +11.5

New Mexico is playing in a letdown spot today coming off a win over No. 6 ranked San Diego State in their last outing. They also have a tough road game on deck, so the Lobos are playing the perfect situation to look past the Utah state Aggies tonight. For the Aggies this will be the last ranked opponent on the schedule this year, so they should be playing with plenty of motivation. The Lobos have a single digit margin of victory against conference opponents this season, and I don't think they will be able to repeat the performance from the last time these teams met. Utah State is a very good rebounding team, and they had a poor showing on the boards in that game. With a closer rebounding margin in this matchup the Lobos will not get the extra shot attempts they had in that first meeting of the season, and that will lead to a the game being decided by a single digit margin. This matchup fits into a system to play against New Mexico. You should fade teams like the Lobos when they are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent, and they have won over 80% of their games on the season and are facing a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games. This system is 106-70 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

River City Sharps

Clemson -2.5

Clemson (17-9) travels to Wake Forest (14-13) to take on Demon deacons. The Tigers have been getting it done with defense only allowing 56 ppg and opponents to shoot 39%. They don’t score a ton of points themselves, but they do shoot FT’s well which could be key in a close game down the stretch, and a game you only need to win by a bucket. Wake forest is 0 for their last 5 SU and ATS. They are 4-10 in league play SU and ATS. The Deacons struggle to score as well only avg 64 ppg in conf play and going up against a stiff Clemson defense will make things that much harder. The Tigers will have a slight advantage on the glass and in a game that should be close; those extra possessions will benefit Clemson. The Sharps like the road fave in the spot.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

Joe Gavazzi

Houston Rockets -4.5

Well aware that the Kings are 7-2 ATS as plus 4 or more home dog. But, their overall home record of 12-17 SU, 13-16 ATS precedes that quirk. Besides, the line has meant little in Houston games this season. In Rockets' games where the line is less than 11 points, the straight up winner of the contest is an amazing 43-6 ATS. Houston is playing their best ball of the season with a recent record of 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, including a Sunday night victory for us at Phoenix. Playing on a court where they are recently 5-2 SU ATS against the Kings, makes them the odds on choice for this one. Kings interior force, Cousins, will find the sledding a bit rough against Rockets' interior force, Howard.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

Dr. Bob

Opinion - MINNESOTA (+3½) over Iowa

Minnesota applies to a 53-9-2 ATS subset of a 164-92-6 ATS home dog revenge situation but by my ratings favor Iowa by 4½ points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to force a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Minnesota plus the points based on the very good situation.

Opinion - CLEVELAND STATE (-7½) over Youngstown State

Cleveland State applies to a very good 62-15-1 ATS subset of a 179-88-8 ATS home favorite momentum situation but the Vikings have been hit by the flu bug and 3 of their top 6 players are listed as questionable for this game. My ratings would favor Cleveland State by 10 points if completely healthy and it’s tough to put a number on this game without knowing how many minutes or how effectively the 3 sick Vikings will play. The line has been adjusted from 9½ down to 7½ points and the situation still applies so I’ll lean with Cleveland State minus the points on the basis of the very strong situation.

Opinion – BRADLEY (+12) over Wichita State

Wichita State applies to a 23-70 ATS big road favorite letdown situation while Bradley apply to a 72-24-3 ATS last home game home dog situation. Bradley has played well at home in conference play and using conference games only for both teams would result in a prediction of Wichita by only 10.6 points. The line is more than fair but Wichita has really played well on the road - although using their road games against Bradley's home games would predict the Shockers by 11.6 points. This is a game I probably should be betting but I'm going to pass anyway and just lean with Bradley plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

Nelly

Indiana + over Wisconsin

While it has been a disappointing season for Indiana sitting at just 5-8 in Big Ten play, the Hoosiers have been a pretty competitive team in road games. Indiana is just 2-5 on the road in conference play but only one loss came by more than six points including giving Michigan State, Minnesota, and Nebraska very tight games. Indiana handed Wisconsin its first loss of the season this year, snapping a long losing streak in the series between these teams. Wisconsin shot 53 percent in that game but Indiana had great success on offense as well while limiting turnovers for a huge win at the time. After a rough stretch in January the Badgers are back to playing like an elite team with five straight wins including wins over Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa. The last of those two wins came on the road in huge games so there is a bit of a letdown risk with the remainder of the schedule looking favorable for the Badgers. Talk has resumed about the Badgers being able to claim as high as a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament to get favorable games in Milwaukee with the recent big wins. Indiana has been inconsistent but they are 3-0 ATS the last three games against the top three teams in the Big Ten with two S/U upsets. The road team has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series and the Badgers are overvalued at home where they are 0-5 ATS in the past five games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 25

OC Dooley

Utah State +11.5

Host New Mexico is in a classic emotional-letdown position on the heels of Saturday’s 60-45 triumph versus San Diego State which was a battle for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference.  Even though the Lobos are on a major roll (11-2 SU/9-1 ATS) and are facing an opponent who is on an 0-3 SU/ATS skid there has been virtually NO offshore line movement which to me speaks volumes.  To add some intrigue to this late night tilt the veteran head coach of Utah State Stew Morrill is seeking career victory #600 which is no small feat.  It should be noted that back in the month of January Utah State “extended” the other top team in the Mountain West (San Diego State) into an OVERTIME session.  Tonight marks just the SECOND time since way back in the 1979 campaign that the Aggies have faced the Lobos and the recent “spread” problems of the underdog side actually works in their favor.  Here is a 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (43-16 the past five years) which plays ON road teams like Utah State beaten by the spread by 48+ combined points in a ten-game span, against an opponent after going below the total by 24+ combined points a three-game stretch

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