Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

SEATTLE (15 - 3) vs. DENVER (15 - 3) - 2/2/2014, 6:30 PM
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Top Trends for this game.GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series HistoryGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SEATTLE vs. DENVERGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
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Seattle at DenverGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Seattle: 6-17 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Denver: 18-5 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Broncos/Seahawks Primer
VegasInsider.com

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The Seahawks opened as one-point favorites at most outlets, while the total opened between 47 ½ and 48. However, the game is listed at a pick-em at several spots after money moved on Denver, while the Broncos are now a one-point favorite.

Super Bowl History:

Broncos are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history and their first since 1998. Denver lost its first four Super Bowl appearances, while winning its last two in Super Bowl XXXI and XXXII.

Seahawks are participating in their second Super Bowl ever, with the first appearance coming in Super Bowl XL against the Steelers. Seattle fell to Pittsburgh, 21-10, while failing to cover as four-point underdogs.

Path to the Super Bowl:

Broncos beat the Chargers, 24-17 as eight-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
Broncos knocked off the Patriots, 26-16 as 4 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship

Seahawks held off the Saints, 23-15 as nine-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
Seahawks rallied past the 49ers, 23-17 as four-point favorites in the Conference Championship

ATS Records:

Denver: 11-6-1
Seattle: 12-6

Over/Under Records:

Denver: 11-7
Seattle: 6-12

Recent Super Bowl History:

Underdogs have covered five of the past six Super Bowls, including outright victories the last two seasons by the Ravens and Giants. Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 9-3 ATS and 6-6 SU record, while the 'over' is 3-3 the last six Super Bowls.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
    
We are finally left with just two teams, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. Today at VegasInsider.com, we're breaking down the biggest game of the season with some great trends to remember for the Super Bowl.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

Line: Denver -2.5 (48)

We have already seen this line move up 2.5-points, as it opened at a pick 'em and immediately moved to Denver by 2.5. These two teams haven't played against each other in nearly four full years, though you can bet with the game on the schedule next season between these two, it will be one of the most highly anticipated games of the regular season.

The Broncos might feel like the superior team, but they clearly had the inferior road to get into the Super Bowl. They probably didn't beat a single truly good team along the way, as they might have been the only good club in the entire AFC this year. Clearly, the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers didn't provide all that much of a challenge in the second season, though this seems to be a much greater test.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, came out of the better of the two conferences and the best division within that conference for good measure. They beat the San Francisco 49ers in a gritty NFC Championship Game to get here and took down the New Orleans Saints in a game that was always under control but never quite settled until the final gun.

QB Peyton Manning is going to have all eyes on him in this one, knowing that he is one of the biggest names the sport has to offer. He threw for 400 yards in the conference title game, the most in a Super Bowl semifinal by a quarterback in league history. Manning though, is only 1-1 SU and ATS in his two trips to the Super Bowl in the past, beating the Chicago Bears and losing to the New Orleans Saints.

The question we have is whether or not these Seahawks, who have virtually no Super Bowl experience, can live up to the biggest game of the year. They certainly don't have a lack of confidence, but they do have a lack of trends on their side in this one.

Sure, Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with winning records, but Denver has covered eight of its last 11 games overall. The Seahawks have covered the closing number in six of their L/10 playoff tussles, while the Broncos have been a money burner in the second season having beaten the oddsmakers just three of the L/10 times.

Keep an eye on the 'under' in this one. Not only have all four of these playoff games between these two teams failed to reach the 'total', but Seattle has played seven straight games 'under' the number. The Broncos have gone 'over' in 13 of their last 16 games played on field turf, but they have played five of their last seven to the 'under'.

The 'over' though, is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series, though that dates all the way back to when these two teams shared the AFC West with one another.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

SBXLVIII Outlook
By Sportsbook.ag

Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -2.5, Total: 47.5

The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.

Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.

The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.

Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.

These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.

Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.

But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.

Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.

The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.

The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.

But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.

Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.

The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.

The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.

Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.

The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.

RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.

But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.

But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.

Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.

Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.

The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.

Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.

Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.

The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.

But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests.


Check out more Super Bowl XLVIII Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

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Super Bowl 48 Countdown
By Jim Feist
Freeplays.com

In the world of eleven to ten, there’s nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it’s two weeks, as the teams have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It’s also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there’s only one game left on the football calendar, there are still ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by various oddsmakers.

For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team, who will score first, or how many yards a player has. A year ago the largest lead was projected at over/under 14 (The Ravens led 21-6 at the half and 28-6 when Jacoby Jones returned the third quarter kickoff 108 yards). RB Ray Rice’s receptions was 3½ — he ended up with four catches for 19 yards. Passing yards by Joe Flacco was set at 247½ (he threw for 287). Two years ago QB Tom Brady was projected over/under 300 yards and 2.5 TDs (he finished with 276 yards, 2 TDs, going under for both).

Three years ago, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers’ TD passes was over/under 2 (he threw 3 against Pittsburgh). His first pass to be incomplete was +210 (it was). Four years ago, Pierre Garcon scored the first TD at 10-to-1 odds. Five years ago, RB Gary Russell was 18-to-1 to score the first TD in the Super Bowl and did on a one-yard run. He finished with minus-three yards rushing but cashed that exclusive prop.

Seven years ago, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!

You can wager that no TDs will be scored by either team, often at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 48 next week. There also has never been overtime, though you will be able to wager on “Will there be overtime or not?” There will be “over/under” lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA’s Jeff Green might have as the Celtics/Magic battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.

The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 22 “overs” and 16 “unders.”

Why so many “overs?” One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it’s the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it’s the last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.

Despite the excessive “overs” you can’t overlook the importance of defense. The Patriots got taken down against the defensive-oriented Ravens a year ago, while the 49ers were a powerhouse defensive team. Two years ago the Saints and Packers didn’t win a playoff game despite all those flashy offensive numbers, while the defensive-oriented Giants, 49ers and Ravens made it to the Final Four.

In 2008 and 2012 the big story was the flashy offense of the Patriots as a favorite each time, but who came out ahead? The great defense of the Giants kept the game close and was the main reason in their 17-14 and 21-17 victories. 11 years ago the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland’s great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa’s defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, seven of the last 13 Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense) and 2008 Steelers (No. 1). Three of those champs, the 2001 Patriots, the ’02 Buccaneers and the ’07 Giants, were Super Bowl underdogs.

You’ll be able to find creative point spread props, too. Seven years ago, the total number of field goals was 3½ over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Eight years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89½, carries 21½, and longest rush 19½. The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Nine years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237½. The “under” ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards.

Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. 14 years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7½-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as “Black Sunday.” The Steelers opened a 2½-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded ‘M’ word!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

SBXLVIII Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

SB XLVIII – A Charlie Brown Super Bowl

To better visualize the winner of Super Bowl XLVIII we look to Winston Churchill, who once said, “The farther back you can look the farther forward you are likely to see.”

In the case of Super Bowls past, we can look back as far as 1967.  Coupled with the power of our way-back machine – aka our database – let’s break down what appears to be a very evenly matched Super Bowl game between Denver and Seattle at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Here is our list of checks and balances for SB XLVIII.

Even Steven

Not only is SB XLVIII the first Super Bowl in 20 years to pair No. 1 seeds from each conference, both teams bring identical 15-3 records into the fray.

Looking deeper, each team squared off against five common opponents (both faced the AFC South) this season, both going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games with Denver going 5-0 ITS (In The Stats) for a net of +748 yards.  Seattle was 4-1 ITS for net of +428 yards,

In games versus fellow playoff teams this season, the Broncos went 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 ITS for a net of +621 yards.  The Seahawks were 4-2 SU and ATS, 3-2-1 ITS, for a net of +244 yards.

Edge: None.

Head-To-Head

The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they’ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Edge: Broncos.

Statistically Speaking

Seattle’s defense is ranked No.1 overall, surrendering 284 YPG while allowing a league low 15 PPG.  Denver’s offense is ranked No. 1 overall, gaining 454 YPG, scoring a league best 36 PPG.

This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense.  Defense has beat offense 3 of the 4 previous meetings.  In addition teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls.

However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

Edge: None.

Logistically Speaking

Teams arriving to the Super Bowl off three consecutive home games (Seattle) are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 2000, including 0-5 SU and ATS off a win of 6 or less points

Super Bowl teams off four consecutive home games (Seattle) are 0-3 SU and ATS since 2000, losing all three times SU as a favorite.  The Seahawks last game away from Seattle was 34 days ago (December 15).

Super bowl favorites of 5 or less points in ‘double rest’ affairs - week of rest first playoff game and week of rest before the Super Bowl – are 1-7 both SU and ATS (Broncos).

Edge: None.

Behind Center

To no one’s surprise, both quarterbacks bring terrific QB Ratings in to the contest. Denver’s Peyton Manning finished the regular season as the league’s top-ranked signal caller at 115.1 on 55 TDs and 10 INTs. Seattle’s Russell Wilson owned a 101.2 QB Rating, with 26 TDs and 9 INTs.

The postseason’s QB Ratings show Manning at 107.0, while Wilson’s numbers have further regressed during the playoffs down to 89.1.

Manning is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career versus Seattle, including 2-0 ATS as a favorite.  He is also 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS with the Broncos.

After winning SB XLI with the Colts in 2007, Manning has completed 248 of 366 passes for 18 TDs and 7 INTS in a total of nine postseason efforts since.

Wilson is 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS as a starting QB with the Seahawks, including 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a dog.

Wilson has tossed for less than 200 yards in over half of his starts, 19 to be exact including 9 this season (including each of his last 6 games).

FYI: the Manning-led Broncos are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in game in which they have managed to hold opponents to 200 or less passing yards in a game.

Edge: Broncos.

On The Sidelines

Denver’s John Fox brings an 8-5 SU and ATS NFL postseason career mark into this game, dropping a 32-29 decision as a 7-point dog to New England in SB XXVII.

Fox is just 11-22 SU and 12-20-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus .769 or greater opposition.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in his NFL playoff career.

The good news is Carroll is 36-24-4 ATS as an underdog in the NFL.  The bad news is he is 1-5 SU/ATS as a dog of 2 or less points, and 0-11 SU as an underdog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .647 or more.

Edge: None.

Super Bowl History

The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

The last NFC No. 1 seed (Seahawks), other than New Orleans in 2009, to win a Super Bowl was St. Louis in 2000.

17 of the last 20 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.

Favorites of 3 or less points (Broncos) are 7-4 SU and ATS, and 5-6 to the ‘Under’.

Teams who won their last two playoff games against foes that were off a playoff road win (Seahawks) are 4-8 SU/ATS, including 1-5 SU/ATS since 2000.

Teams who score 20 or fewer points in the game are 6-30 SU and 9-33 ATS.  Teams who score 21 or more points in the game are 40-12 SU and 36-14-2 ATS.

The SU winner of a Super Bowl game is 39-6-2 ATS all-time.

Edge: None.

Ups And Downs

The oddsmakers have done their best job posting Over/Under totals on Super Bowl games.  That’s confirmed by the fact that there have been 24 ‘Overs' and 22 ‘Unders’ in this history of the big game – with no total available in the inaugural game.

After the Giants and Patriots played to 17-14 ‘Under’ in 2008, each of the last five Super Bowl totals results have alternated, going: O-U-O-U-O since.

The big story in the world of Over/Under total in the NFL this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the ‘Over’.

Despite the success of this betting trend this season, there has not been a major move to the ‘Over’ in this year’s Super Bowl, due largely to the fact the game is being played outdoors in New Jersey.

Cold temperatures, snow and wind will likely be the determining factor as to which direction the opening total of 47.5 settles.

Edge: The weatherman.

As Charlie Brown would say, “That’s my 5 cents.”  Enjoy the game!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Tale Of The Tape                     
By Joe Nelson 
Playbook.com

The Super Bowl closes out the long football season and is one of the most anticipated betting events of the year. It is a difficult game to handicap given the unique situations involved for both teams with the extra preparation time, attention, and the neutral site. While there may be better opportunities digging deeper into the numerous proposition bets available, here is a look at the traditional options for Sunday's big game.

The case for Denver...

The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game. Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile but down the stretch and in the playoffs Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games Denver allowed 33 points but they allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos. The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski, were some of the most productive teams against the Broncos. That has not been the formula for the Seahawks on offense as Seattle is reliant on running the ball to set up the passing game. Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos. 

The case for Seattle...

Seattle's offense struggled down the stretch by most measures, scoring just 22 points per game in the seven games after a week 12 bye. In six of those seven games the Seahawks faced a team that finished in top eight in the NFL in total defense however. On the season the Seahawks played eight games against teams that finished in the top six in the league in total defense while Denver did not play a single one. The Broncos actually only played five games all season against teams that finished in the top 20 in the league in total defense. On a yards per play basis the numbers are just as glaring, Seattle faced a top 10 yards per play defense in half of its 18 games this season, while Denver only faced one such game all season as the record setting numbers for the Broncos came against an incredibly weak slate of defenses. Turnovers often decide NFL games and Seattle was the best team in the league at creating turnovers, averaging 2.4 turnovers per game. The Seahawks were also one of the best teams at not giving the ball away while Denver struggled with turnovers this season with 1.6 giveaways per game and those mistakes came against much lesser defensive teams than Seattle. While the Saints wound up with 301 yards passing in the divisional playoff game with a few big plays in a late rally after Seattle built a lead, no other team topped 214 yards passing against Seattle all season long and it is certainly difficult to envision a scenario where the Broncos win without success in the air.

The case for the Over...

While the Super Bowls of the 1980s and 1990s featured a heavy lean to the 'over' the trend has flipped with six of the last nine Super Bowls playing 'under'. Three of the last six Super Bowls have featured a total in the 50s and this year's game currently features a total lower than 14 of the last 25 Super Bowls despite this game featuring two teams that are in the top eight in the league in scoring offense. The Broncos were the highest scoring regular season team in NFL history and if you take away the seven games against division rivals this is a Broncos team that averaged 41 points per game. In the four games against NFC teams Denver actually scored over 47 points per game on average. Seattle was statistically the best defense in the NFL this season by most measures but Seattle did play eight games against teams in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per play offense and the Seahawks only played three games against the NFL's top 10 yards per play teams. The Seattle offense was much better than it often gets credit for as well as the Seahawks has scored almost 26 points per game this season despite playing 13 games against the top 15 teams in the league in total defense. The Seahawks actually played eight games this season against teams that finished in the top six in the NFL in total defense. By most measures Denver was a very average defense this season and while the Broncos have been sharp defensively in the playoffs the lower scoring games in the run to the Super Bowl has pushed this total to the lowest number in any Broncos game all season. The average total in a Denver game this season was 54 so there is almost an entire touchdown taken off with respect for Seattle's defense. Weather is a valid concern for what should be the coldest Super Bowl ever but weather is often over compensated for in NFL games as the field will be meticulously cared for given the huge stage and the players have advanced equipment suitable for all conditions.

The case for the Under...

The record setting Denver offense certainly deserves some respect but who exactly did the Broncos have to play this season? Denver only played one game all season against a defense that finished the season in the top 11 of the league in yards per play defense. Eight of the 18 games for the Broncos came against a team in the bottom eight of the league in that measure. 13 of the 18 games for Denver came against teams ranking in the bottom 12 of the NFL in total defense as well. Seattle was the #1 total defense this season by almost 20 yards per game as well as being the #1 scoring defense and the #1 yards per play defense. This is a historically great defense especially compared with the upward scoring of the league in general this season. The most passing yards against the Seahawks in the regular season was just 214 yards, the Saints did eclipse that mark in the divisional round of the playoffs but New Orleans did not score a single point through three quarters in that game, posting a total of 156 yards through its first eight possessions before getting a few late scores. While the Seattle defense will get most of the attention, Denver has allowed just 15 points per game in the last four games despite some notable injuries. The scoring against Denver is also inflated with 30 of 33 points allowed in the two playoff games coming in the fourth quarter. Denver is currently the fourth best rush defense in the NFL in yards per game allowed, holding foes to less than 98 yards per game, on just 3.9 yards per carry, both figures that best the great Seattle defense against the run. This matchup should play out favorably for both defenses as Seattle's great rush offense will face a very good rush defense and the great passing game for Denver will deal with a great Seattle pass defense. Seattle has also been top takeaway team in the league, averaging 2.4 turnovers created per game and with this high number even one missed scoring opportunity could disrupt the scoring pace significantly. Add in a very good chance of wind and snow and the added pressure and attention of this big game for two teams that were much better performers at home and it is easy to see this game unfolding as a lower scoring affair.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Betting SBXLVIII Props
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl Props… Betting Tips

Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off Feb. 2 in chilly New Jersey when Denver meets Seattle in a matchup of former AFC West squads with identical records.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet like mops on cleaning day.

It's important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the odds maker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent 'juice' edge in his favor. Thus, it's critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create added action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas.

Furthermore, it's important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay the Super Bowl is the only NFL game of the season where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

With that thought in mind, here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.

The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kickoff.

Amazingly, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip 14 years in a row until New England and Baltimore prevailed each of the last two Super Bowls.

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.

Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 26 times in 47 previous Super Bowl games, with Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco taking the honors last year.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP's.

Denver’s Peyton Manning (+110) and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+325) lead the MVP charge this year.

In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Manning over Wilson in each of the following categories:  -10.5 most completions; -0.5 most touchdown passes; -78.5 most gross passing yards.

Most rushing yards finds Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch -30.5 over Knowshon Moreno.

Most receiving yards finds Denver’s Eric Decker -9.5 over Seattle’s Golden Tate; Denver’s Wes Welker -15.5 over Seattle’s Doug Baldwin and Denver’s Julius (not Demaryius) Thomas -25.5 over Seattle’s Zach Miller.

My groundswell of support for is for Broncos WR Welker to go ‘over’ 54.5 receiving yards as well as ‘over’ 5.5 pass receptions.

In two career losing Super Bowl games with Tom Brady and the Patriots, Welker – who figures to be Manning’s primary underneath target - managed to catch 7 passes for 60 yards in one game and 11 passes for 107 yards in the other.

Team Scoring Tendencies

Sharp edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring average points per game scored and allowed in each quarter for each team.

Note: both teams played exactly 17 games each this season.

1Q – Denver: 7.8 / 3.4
1Q – Seattle: 4.2 / 1.4
 
2Q – Denver: 9.7 / 7.3
2Q – Seattle: 8.5 / 6.4
 
3Q – Denver 8.1 / 5.8
3Q – Seattle: 5.4 / 2.7
 
4Q – Denver: 10.9 / 7.2
4Q – Seattle: 7.3 / 4.2

Notice both the Broncos and Seahawks have each scored and allowed the fewest points in the first stanza.  They have also each allowed the most points in 2nd quarter action.

Breaking their games down by the half we find:

1st Half – Denver: 17.5 / 10.8
1st Half – Seattle: 12.7 / 7.8

2nd Half – Denver: 18.9 / 13.0
2nd Half – Seattle: 12.7 / 6.8

Buyer beware.

Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVIII is Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch with Denver WR’s Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas a whisker off.
 
Over the previous 47 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 20 times. Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin found the end zone first for the Ravens against the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

2 For The Money

A popular prop is whether or not there will be a safety in the game.

With each of the last two Super Bowl games having produced a Safety, the popularity of playing betting safeties has increased.  FYI: teams who record them are 5-3 in Super Bowl games, with 6 coming via the defense and 2 by way of penalty.

In terms of non-conventional scoring (sans touchdowns, field goals and extra points), safeties (8 – one every 5.87 games) rank only behind kickoffs for a touchdown (9 – one every 5.22 games), and just ahead of 2-point conversions (6 – one every 7.83 games).

The LVH Superbook offered a safety at ‘Yes’ +550 and ‘No’ -800 for Super Bowl XLVIII.  A successful 2-point conversion is ‘Yes’ +425 and ‘No’ -550.

Who Will Have More… Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular wagering option.

The LVH features no less than 48 cross-sports opportunities (up from 38 last year) ranging from Manning’s pass attempts (-7.5) versus Kevin Durrant points, to Wilson’s passing yards (-16.5) versus the Celtics/Magic total points.

College hoops gets into the fray with the Pitt Panthers points -15.5 over Wes Welker’s receiving yards, along with Marshawn Lynch rushing yards -9.5 over UCLA points scored.

Golfers are offered 7 cross-props (that just sounds wrong), the most popular of which is Tigers Woods’ 4th round score -5.5 versus Eric Decker’s receiving yards.

Soccer fanatics rejoice with no less than 13 ‘Who Gets More’ options, including pitting Liverpool goals (-0.5) up Wilson’s TD touchdowns.

Hockey fans can get in the game, too, with a half-dozen propositions, featuring the Red Wings’ goals (+105) going up against the Seahawks rushing touchdowns (-125).

And on and on it goes.  Where it stops only Jay Kornegay knows.

One thing is for sure. This will mark the first time in 10 years that the team with the best record in the league will win the Super Bowl.

That’s a lock.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

SBXLVIII Outlook
By Sportsbook.ag

Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Current Line & Total: Denver -2.5 & 47
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Pick ‘em & 48

The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.

Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.

The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.

Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.

These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.

Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.

But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.

Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.

The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.

The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.

But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.

Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.

The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.

The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.

Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.

The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.

RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.

But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.

But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.

Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.

Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.

The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.

Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.

Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.

The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.

But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests.


Check out more Super Bowl XLVIII Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Forty-Eight Great Betting Notes For Super Bowl XLVIII
By Brian Covert
Covers.com

We're just a few days away from Super Bowl XLVIII so it's time to really buckle down and get focused on your bets. We put together a list of the best 48 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.

1. Sunday’s game will be only the third time in the last 20 years the two preseason favorites have met in the Super Bowl. The NFC has won the two previous meetings with the New Orleans Saints beating the Indianapolis Colts in 2009 and the Dallas Cowboys beating the Buffalo Bills in 1993.

2. The closest approximation of this year’s Super Bowl matchup was in 2002, when the league’s best defensive team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, beat the Oakland Raiders, who were the league’s second-highest scoring team, 48-21.

3. Twenty-one of 47 Super Bowls have featured a Top-5 total offense against a Top-5 total defense. In those instances, the defense has beaten the offense 13 times SU. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.

4. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS.

5. The team that scores first is 31-16 SU in the Super Bowl.

6. The Broncos’ starters have an average 5.7 seasons in the NFL, 3.3 playoffs and players who have experienced five different Super Bowls. The Seahawks starters have an average of 4.6 seasons, 2.5 playoff seasons, and no Super Bowl appearances.

7. Denver’s coaching staff has a combined 49 NFL seasons, 19 playoff seasons, and three Super Bowls between them while Seattle’s coaching staff have 38 NFL seasons, 19 playoff seasons, and zero Super Bowls between them.

8. Seattle beat Denver 40-10 as a 5-point favorite in the preseason. Peyton Manning was 11 for 16 for 163 yards passing and a TD while Russell Wilson went 8-for-12 for 127 yards and two scores.

9. The Broncos set an NFL record with 606 points scored this season. Not one of the next eight teams on the all-time season scoring list went on to win the Super Bowl.

10. The team that controls the clock usually wins. Teams that have a superior time of possession have won nine of the last 12 Super Bowls SU. The Seahawks have averaged 29:59 minutes of possession in their two playoff games while the Broncos have averaged over 35:30 minutes of possession in their two postseason games.

Total

11. The Seattle Seahawks have given up only 30 points twice in two seasons – a Week 5 loss at Indianapolis and a 30-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in last year’s divisional playoff round. Denver has scored at least 30 points in 12 of 18 games this season.

12. According to the website Advanced NFL Stats, temperatures of 25 degrees or less affect play calling. The same website says a winds of 15 mph or stronger also affects play calling.

13. Terry McAulay was named head official for Super Bowl XLVIII. McAulay presided over both Super Bowl XXXIX, in which the Patriots beat the Eagles 24-21 as 7-point favorites and Super Bowl XLIII in which the Steelers beat the Cardinals 27-23 as 6.5-point favorites. In Super Bowl XXXIX, there were 10 penalties called for 82 yards total. In Super Bowl XLIII, there were 18 penalties for 182 yards total.

14. Weather Underground isn’t predicting a major storm but is expecting “a frontal system that with colder air retreating, all precipitation types, from snow, to sleet, to rain, are on the table with this system.”

15. Cold weather and frozen fields could push both teams' preparations indoors which coaches agree is not ideal because the synthetic field is harder on their players’ legs.

16. In 10 playoff games there have only been seven pass interference calls made. Seattle is the most penalized teams in terms of pass interference calls with 13 in 18 games for a total of 232 yards. Denver is the second biggest beneficiary of pass interference calls with 14 calls against for 215 yards.

17. Eight of the past 12 Super Bowl winners were flagged for more penalty yards than the loser. Seattle was the most penalized team during the regular season with 7.9 per game while Denver was 30 of 34 with 7.1 per game.

18. Seattle has given up an NFL-low 231 points this year with only 101 of those points coming in the second half.

19. Peyton Manning has averaged 295 yards and has thrown 19 touchdowns versus 10 interceptions in his last eight games in sub 40-degree weather.

20. Broncos had a touchdown drive of 7 minutes, one second against the San Diego Chargers to go with scoring drives of 7:50 and 7:52 Sunday against the Patriots. Those are the three longest scoring drives of the season for the Broncos. Denver is slowing down its pace on offense, compared to a hurried no-huddle attack in the regular season.

Props

21. The winning QB has been Super Bowl MVP in six of the last seven games. Peyton Manning is currently the oddsmakers' favorite at 8/5 while Russell Wilson is next at 13/4.

22. After the quarterbacks, Marshawn Lynch is, at 6/1, the oddsmakers’ favorite to life the MVP trophy. No running back has been named MVP since Terrell Davis was in 1998.

23. The total for how many times Peyton Manning will say “Omaha” is 27.5. The Broncos QB used it 44 times in the divisional round versus San Diego and 31 versus New England.

24. The AFC has won the last two coin tosses in a row. Before that the NFC had won 13 straight.

25. "Heads" has been the right call in the last five Super Bowls and six of the last seven.

Seattle Seahawks

26. Seattle WR Percy Harvin was given the all clear to return to practice after suffering a concussion versus the Saints and did so this past Wednesday. He still needs to be given medical clearance to play Sunday.

27. Russell Wilson is leaving no stone unturned in preparation for the big game. The Seattle QB is anticipating 56 different balls to be used during the game and the larger Super Bowl emblem will make the ball slicker than usual.

28. The Seahawks defense has held standout tight ends Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis to a combined three catches and 24 yards in their two playoff games. Denver TEs Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme were instrumental in the team’s AFC Championship win making 10 catches for 109 yards and two TDs.

29. Pete Carroll intends on keeping the competition for starting left guard open through the week leading up to the big game with Dan Carpenter, Michael Bowie, and Paul McQuistan all vying for the position.

30. With Harvin in the lineup the Seahawks will, at times, be able to lineup with at least three wide receivers. They have had such a formation on only 12 first-down attempts, 16 second-down attempts, and 24 third downs.

31. This will be Seattle’s third trip to Meadowlands in the last three years. They beat the Giants 36-25 as 10-point underdogs in 2011 and 23-0 as 9.5-point favorites in December. The O/U is 1-1 in those games both times with a 43.5-point total.

32. Russell Wilson is 8-1 ATS as an underdog as the Seahawks starter.

33. Percy Harvin faced the Broncos as a member of the Minnesota Vikings racking up a career-high 175 yards from scrimmage. One hundred of those yards came on a pair of touchdown catches covering 52 and 48 yards.

34. The Seahawks were dead last, converting only 49 percent of chances when facing third and fourth-and-two to convert or a goal-to-go situation inside the two-yard line.

Denver Broncos

35. The Denver Broncos gave up the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Seattle TE Zach Miller caught only 33 passes for 387 yards and five TDs but was most prolific in December with 11 catches for 139 yards and two TDs.

36. Denver kicker Matt Prater missed three straight days of practice because of illness but managed to fly with the team to New York Sunday. Team took precautions to ensure Prater didn’t pass anything on.

37. Defenses have made nearly 200 pressure calls versus Peyton Manning this season. He has been sacked only five times on these occasions while passing for 14 touchdowns and five interceptions.

38. Denver RB Knowshon Moreno was listed as questionable with a rib injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Moreno says he will be good to go Sunday and doesn’t expect needing to wear any additional padding.

39. The Broncos run game averaged 30 rushes and five yards per carry in their three cold weather games this season. Overall, Denver averaged almost 29 carries per game for just 4.1 yards per carry over the regular season.

40. The Broncos offense has given the ball away 28 times in 18 games while the Seahawks defense have 42 takeaways.

41. Denver has almost 500 snaps of no-huddle offense this season with 89 so far in the postseason. They have scored 57 touchdowns from this package in 18 games this season.

42. Denver kicker Matt Prater was so prolific through the postseason that, when combined with the Mile High air, the Denver Broncos’ special teams did not field a kick return all playoffs. It is expected that Percy Harvin, the league’s best kick returner in 2011 and 2012 will be healthy enough to return kickoffs this Sunday.

43. Manning has been touched only once this postseason and has not been sacked.

44. Broncos WR DeMaryius Thomas welcomes the opportunity to face All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman despite Sherman not allowing a reception this postseason as well as having the best defensive passer rating of any defensive back this season at 47.3. The second-lowest opposing passer rating was Seattle’s Byron Maxwell at 47.8.

45. Denver was 4-1 SU and ATS this season against teams with a Top-10 rushing offense. The Over is 4-1 in those games.

46. Broncos offensive line consultant Alex Gibbs was Seattle’s assistant head coach and offensive line coach in 2010 and worked with Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable in Atlanta in 2006.

47. The Broncos are 8-2 SU in 10 games that Peyton Manning has worn a glove this season, throwing 33 touchdowns against five interceptions.

48. Since the Broncos were tagged for 177 yards on the ground in week 15, they have allowed the opposing team to rush for 87, 64, 65, and 64 yards respectively the past four games. The Broncos are 3-1 ATS in those games and the under is 4-0.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Super Bowl XLVIII
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for Super Bowl XLVIII:

Broncos’ slower pace vs. Seahawks’ organized chaos

Like the bachelor-turned-family man, the Broncos are trading in their sports car for a reliable mini-van. Denver has undergone a dramatic change in pace this postseason, leaving the up-tempo attack behind for a slower, more deliberate offense. That’s panned out as back-to-back Under wins in the playoffs. The Broncos’ three longest drives of the season have come against San Diego and New England, lasting 7:01, 7:50, and 7:52. They’ve dominated time of possession, hanging on to the football for over 35 minutes in both wins.

Seattle will be so jacked up on defense, the worst thing the Broncos can do to the Seahawks is take their time - kind of like that feeling when you and your lady are about to get it on, and she runs to the bathroom “for a second”. Seattle’s anxious stop unit could get lulled to sleep by Peyton Manning’s methodical playcalling, and the longer Seattle’s defense is on the field, the more worn down they’ll get.

Runnin’ Russell Wilson vs. Broncos’ dual-threat weakness

The Broncos faced a handful of mobile QBs this season and gave up some big gains for the most part. Denver allowed Terrelle Pryor to scramble for 85 yards on 13 carries in two meetings, couldn’t stop Alex Smith from rushing for 98 yards on nine attempts in their two games versus the Chiefs, watched Mike Vick tack on 41 yards on eight runs in Week 4’s win over the Eagles, and gave up 29 yards and a rushing TD on four runs to Andrew Luck in the loss to the Colts. And Denver got off the hook against a one-legged RG3 in Week 8.

Russell Wilson’s passing game has declined the past few games, completing only 58 percent of his passes and topping the 200-yard mark just twice in his last six games. But while Wilson’s arm may be a little shaky in the Super Bowl, his legs could do some serious damage to Denver. He’s rushed for 539 yards, picking up 5.6 yards per carry. He’s only added 16 yards on the ground this postseason but was the third-best rushing QB in the NFL – behind Cam Newton and Pryor – this season.

Broncos’ flag-flying offense vs. Seahawks’ over-aggressive defense

OK conspiracy theorist. This one is right in your wheelhouse. What’s better for TV: A high-scoring or low-scoring Super Bowl? And, in a season where we’ve seen an endless stream of ticky-tack calls against defenders, there’s no reason to believe Super Bowl XLVIII won’t be any different. Will Roger Goodell put the bug in the referees’ ear when it comes to keeping the points – and revenue - flowing? For the sake of the Seahawks and their backers, I hope not.

Before you sprint to the comment section to call me whatever insult this site’s filters won’t let you type, hear me out. The Broncos forced 14 pass interference calls – tied for most in the league – for 215 yards. Denver also drew nine defensive holding penalties – another NFL high - for a total of 40 free yards. The Seahawks’ aggressive defense was flagged for pass interference 13 times – tied for the most – giving up 232 yards and was whistled for holding 11 times – tied again for the most – handing opposing offenses 55 yards.

Seahawks’ home-run hitter Percy Harvin vs. Broncos’ big-play problems

Percy Harvin is one of those players who may only touch the ball a handful of times during a game, but ends up having the biggest impact on the outcome. Harvin is ready to roll after getting his eggs scrambled against the Saints in the NFC Divisional Round, his first game back from a hip injury. When healthy, the speedy WR is a game changer and can strike for big plays. The last time he faced the Broncos, as a member of the Vikings, Harvin had TD catches of 52 and 48 yards.

The Broncos defense is getting better, holding their last four opponents to 17 points or less. But that has a lot to do with Manning milking the clock and keeping opposing offenses on the sidelines. Denver’s deepest, darkest secret on defense is its susceptibility to big plays downfield. The Broncos have constantly allowed teams to convert on big gains, giving up 61 passes of 20 or more yards – ranked fifth worst in the NFL. They’ve also allowed their last three opponents to convert on 40 percent of their third downs, including allowing the Patriots to go 6 for 12 on third down.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Super Sunday!
By Jim Feist
Freeplays.com

It’s been a while! Seattle was last in the Super Bowl after the 2005 campaign while we haven’t seen Denver here since the late 1990s with some guy named John Elway behind center. Back in August the Broncos were 6-to-1 and the Seahawks 17-to-2 to win the Super Bowl, both ranked in the Top 5, so it’s the “NFL Year of the Chalk.”

We had been in a golden age for the AFC for a while, almost as if the pendulum had swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 10 of the last 16, including last year wit the Ravens, though the Saints, Packers and Giants won the previous three.

What we have in 2014 is finesse versus physical, the high flying modern QB against the old fashioned, powerhouse defense. We also have the first outdoor game in cold weather since the 1970s when the Steelers and Vikings played in 39 degree temperatures (Tulane stadium).

We’ve seen the Colts and Saints meet in the Super Bowl, the top two offensive teams, the pass-happy Patriots, and even the Arizona Cardinals wining it with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. But let’s face it: Defense is still King. The Giants won two titles with great defense, topping the Patriots, and last year the Ravens and 49ers were physical, punishing defenses, topping finesse teams in the conference championships. Remember that when the Packers and Steelers squared off three years ago they were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so defense is still very much alive and dominating.
The Seahawks hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 9-3 ATS the last 12 Super Bowls, winning six times. Here’s a look at what to expect this weekend as America’s unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What the Broncos want to do: If the game is an uptempo track meet, the Broncos have the best lineup on the planet with 37-year old Peyton Manning (55 TDs, 10 INTs, 5,477 yard and his record setting passing attack with WR Demaryius Thomas (1,430 yards, 14 TDs), WR Eric Decker (1,288 yards), WR Wes Welker (778) and TE Julius Thomas (788). No one has really been able to slow them down. The over is 34-16-2 in the Broncos last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
The defense, though, has been a mixed bag, decent against the run, but suspect in the secondary. They’ve had injuries, too, losing speedy DE Von Miller and their top cornerback just two weeks ago, Chris Harris. They have been in every game with their only losses by 7, 6 and 3 points. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS on fieldturf and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.

What the Seahawks want to do: Forget about any track meet. This is an old-fashioned style of team from the 1920s (or maybe the 1985 Bears) that prefers to knock the tar out of opponents from the opening kickoff through the first quarter. They are a physical, dominating defense that can stuff the run, rush the passer, and for good measure the athletic secondary is No. 1 against the pass. Even in their worst defensive game, a 34-28 loss at Indy, the defense allowed just 317 total yards and still forced 2 turnovers.
The offense does whatever is needed, a conservative group behind quiet, cerebral QB Russell Wilson (26 TDs, 9 picks, 3,357 yards), who chipped in 539 yards rushing, and power back Marshawn Lynch (1,257 yds, 4.2 ypc), a bruising back who seems to get better in the fourth quarter as defensive players tire.
Seattle is on a 34-16-1 ATS run, plus a 7-0 run under the total. The Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf, 13-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The last 38 years the “over” has gone 22-16 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 6-3 the last nine years.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Advantage - Seattle
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The betting public is keen on Peyton Manning and the Broncos winning the Super Bowl as short favorites. However, Seattle's top-ranked defense may have something to say about the lack of respect shown to the top-seed in the NFC. The Seahawks own the top home-field advantage in the NFL, but Seattle shocked many people with its success on the highway this season.

Pete Carroll's club won six of eight games away from CenturyLink Field, including victories over Carolina and Arizona. The Seahawks fell short by six points at Indianapolis, while losing on a late field goal at San Francisco, 19-17. Seattle covered six times on the highway, as the Seahawks' defense limited five of those opponents to 19 points or less. In nine straight games overall, the Seahawks have allowed 20 points or less, winning seven times in this stretch.

Seattle won three of four games against AFC foes, while covering twice in these contests. The Seahawks failed to cash as three-point favorites at Indianapolis, while falling short of the 12½-point number in a 20-13 home triumph over the Titans. Since last season, Seattle has won six of eight interconference contests, with the two losses coming as a three-point road favorite.

In spite of the Seahawks' numbers going down offensively of late, NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out that the defenses they faced had something to do with it, "Seattle's offense struggled down the stretch by most measures, scoring just 22 points per game in the seven games after a Week 12 bye. In six of those seven games, the Seahawks faced a team that finished in top eight in the NFL in total defense. On the season, the Seahawks played eight games against teams that finished in the top six in the league in total defense, while Denver did not play a single one. The Broncos actually only played five games all season against teams that finished in the top 20 in the league in total defense."

Taking it a step further, Nelson says the Seahawks held their own considering their competition, "On a yards-per-play basis the numbers are just as glaring, Seattle faced a top 10 yards per play defense in half of its 18 games this season, while Denver only faced one such game all season as the record-setting numbers for the Broncos came against an incredibly weak slate of defenses. Turnovers often decide NFL games and Seattle was the best team in the league at creating turnovers, averaging 2.4 turnovers per game. The Seahawks were also one of the best teams at not giving the ball away while Denver struggled with turnovers this season with 1.6 giveaways per game and those mistakes came against much lesser defensive teams than Seattle."

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero points to the weather as a positive for the Seahawks on Sunday, "Seattle is hoping inclement weather can join its pursuit of a championship. Not that the Seahawks are some sort of novelty act, but conditions that make it trickier on Manning and the Broncos passing game obviously favor the team with the top defense and power running game. If snow flurries accompany wind or rain, coach Carroll will undoubtedly be smiling while trying to keep warm, getting an assist from Mother Nature in cementing his game plan."

Nelson makes mention as well of Seattle's top flight passing defense as a major factor, "While the Saints wound up with 301 yards passing in the divisional playoff game with a few big plays in a late rally after Seattle built a lead, no other team topped 214 yards passing against Seattle all season long and it is certainly difficult to envision a scenario where the Broncos win without success in the air."

The Seahawks won their first two playoff games at home against the Saints and 49ers, but Seattle is no stranger to playing on the highway in the postseason. Last season, the Seahawks won at Washington as three-point favorites, before falling short in the divisional round at Atlanta, 30-28 as 2½-point underdogs. In Carroll's four postseason road games as coach of the Seahawks, they have covered three times with the lone ATS loss coming at Chicago in 2011 as 10-point 'dogs one week after shocking the Saints in the Wild Card round.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Advantage - Denver
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Following a devastating double-overtime loss to the Ravens in last season's divisional playoffs, the Broncos rebounded by winning the AFC Championship this season. Denver has put together a 28-7 record the last two seasons with Peyton Manning at the helm, as the Broncos seek their first Super Bowl title since 1998.

When many fans point to Denver's success, the first thing to highlight is the home-field advantage playing at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos won nine of 10 games at home this season, while limiting the Chargers and Patriots to a combined 33 points in two playoff victories. However, Denver put together a 6-2 record on the road this season, with the two losses coming against playoff squads New England and Indianapolis. Granted, the Broncos squandered a 24-0 lead in the loss to the Patriots, while scoring 33 points in Manning's return to the Hoosier State in a 39-33 defeat to the Colts.

The Broncos' offense put up at least 30 points in 13 games this season, including 41 points against the Giants at Met Life Stadium back in Week 2, the site of the Super Bowl. Denver won all four games against the NFC, while breaking the 40-point barrier in all four victories against the Eagles, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys.

When analyzing Manning's playoff history, the star quarterback lost his first three postseason games with the Colts from 1999-2002, but won nine of his next 16 in Indianapolis, including all four in the 2006 playoffs. In Denver, Manning has won two of three playoff contests, although he has not played on the road yet with the Broncos in the postseason.

NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson has some interesting statistics that backs taking the Broncos, "The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game."

On the opposite side of the ball, Nelson breaks down how well the Broncos have performed of late, "Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile, but down the stretch and in the playoffs, Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games, the Broncos allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos. The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski was some of the most productive teams against the Broncos."

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says the reliance of Manning is key for the Broncos' success, "Denver's fortunes ride on Manning's ability to make the correct adjustments at the line of scrimmage, something he does as well as anyone in NFL history. The challenge is doing it against a Seahawks defense that flies around and feasts on turnovers, so he'll have to be conservative, riding the running game and picking his spots. If he can avoid turnovers and give the Broncos a chance to steal this late, you have to like his chances of avoiding a Colin Kaepernick-type mistake in the Super Bowl's late stages, setting himself up to win a second title."

Nelson mentions John Fox's defense has slowed opponents down on the ground, "Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively, they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos."

Favorites of 3½ points or less in Super Bowl history have put together a strong 8-3 SU/ATS record, as the last team in this situation was Green Bay three years ago holding off Pittsburgh, 31-25 as three-point 'chalk.' Three of the last four Super Bowls played outdoors have gone to the AFC, including Pittsburgh (SB XLIII), Indianapolis (XLI), and New England (XXIX).

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Advantage - Over
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off Sunday and the betting public is backing Denver as the short favorite over Seattle according to our Betting Trends.

The total is a little different and even though the ‘over’ is catching more tickets, you can argue both ways for this week’s matchup.

Depending where you play, you could’ve bet this number as low as 46 ½ and as high as 49 ½ points, which it spiked up to on Thursday.

As of Friday, the total is hovering around 48 points.

In this piece, I’ve listed reasons why you might lean to the ‘over.’ Along with my thoughts, I received great feedback from three handicappers on VegasInsider.com.

CD’s Angles

Denver has seen the ‘over’ go 11-8 this season, which includes a 6-2 record on the road. In those road games, the Broncos have averaged 36.3 points per game.

Since Peyton Manning arrived, the Broncos have gone 3-1 with a week of rest, two byes during the regular season and two breaks in between the playoffs. Denver has scored 34, 35, 28 and 24 points while the defense has allowed 14, 38, 20 and 17 points. The lone loss came to the Ravens (35-38) in last year’s Divisional Playoff Round.

The Broncos have only seen three totals listed below 50 this season and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games.

Even though Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 on the road, the Seahawks have shown the ability to score away from home (23 PPG).

Denver saw the ‘over’ go 4-0 in its four games against the NFC, scoring 41, 52, 51 and 45 points.

Seattle saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its four games against the AFC this season.

The pair both played against the New York Giants MetLife Stadium this season and both Denver (41-23) and Seattle (23-0) came out victorious.

During the regular season, the league saw the ‘over’ go 49-15 (76.5%) this season.

Denver has played in six Super Bowls and the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games.

The last two meetings between the Broncos and Seahawks both went ‘over’ albeit in the preseason. I understand some might not weigh those numbers heavily but check out these stats.

Russell Wilson – 18-of-29 (62%) 282 yards, 4 TDs
Peyton Manning – 27-of-39 (69%) 340 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

I know some might dismiss these number but both games were in Week 2 of the preseason and each quarterback showed that they could move the ball. Wilson’s numbers could be a tad misleading because he backed up Matt Flynn in 2012 and faced weaker defensive players. However, he was 8-of-12 for 127 yards and two touchdowns this August.

Expert Angles

Paul Bovi

 
For those that side with the over, that weather forecast surely bodes well for the high side of 47 given the likelihood of a negligible effect, if any at all, upon the ability to throw the football as well as kicking field goals into the crisp Jersey air. The case could easily be made for Denver's record breaking scoring average of 37.9 points per game and the multitude of weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal that are poised to overwhelm the league leading Seahawk defense, Richard Sherman and all, or so they would say. The third year player out of Stanford, who has garnered a great deal of attention in the aftermath of his postgame NFC Championship rant and was the leading vote getter for this year's Pro Bowl, picked off 8 passes in 2013 and is known to be a lock down corner and a ferocious tackler. That said, over bettors will undoubtedly cite Manning's ability to find the open receiver amongst his many targets and for the most part, avoid Sherman.

The other side of the ball features the notably inconsistent Seahawk offense taking on a Denver defense that has fielded more than its’ fair share of criticism this year, particularly against the pass, where they ranked 27th in the league and allowed a NFL game leading 506 yards to Dallas quarterback Tony Romo. During the first 14 games of the regular season, the Bronco defense was able to hold only two teams to less than 20 points, that the Jacksonville Jaguars who tallied 19, and the Kansas City Chiefs who managed only 17 in a 10-point loss to Denver on Nov. 17.In the AFC Championship two weeks ago, the Broncos held New England to a mere 16 points in their 10- point win, missed opportunities were the order of the day for the Pats as QB Tom Brady overthrew both Matthew Slater and Julian Edelman on what well could have been scoring plays. Returning to the Seahawk lineup will be Percy Harvin, who has been out with a concussion and managed to be in the lineup for all of 40 snaps this season. Assuming Harvin, who has been practicing at full speed all week, plays and does so effectively, he will undoubtedly elevate a mediocre Seahawk receiving corps into a formidable one as he combines with Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin to form a dangerous trio along with jump-ball specialist WR Jermaine Kearse and TE Zach Miller. In their 23-15 playoff win over the Saints, QB Russell Wilson completed 8 of 11 passes for 92 yards while Harvin was in the lineup and only 1-of-7 after his departure. Coincidence? You decide.

Mike Rose

You should bet the OVER Because it’s the last game of the year and the NFL must close out the season with a bang….right? On a more serious note, there wasn’t an offense in the league better than the AFC champion Denver Broncos at moving the pigskin and putting points on the scoreboard. They punched their ticket to Super Bowl XLVIII by gouging the opposition with an average of 457.3 YPG and turned all those yards into 37.9 PPG. Peyton Manning and his gifted wide receiver corps averaged better than 8.0 yards per pass, and #18 already went into MetLife back in Week 2 and had one of his better games of the season in throwing for 307 yards and 2 TDs. Seattle also paid a visit to frigid East Rutherford this season and spanked the Giants 23-0 in Week 15, so they too are familiar with how MetLife plays in terms of the weather conditions. On top of possessing one of the most dominant defenses ever witnessed in the modern era of the NFL that routinely forces turnovers, the Seahawks also happen to boast one of the more unforgiving ground attacks that saw it rush for an average of 136.8 YPG (#4) with Marshawn Lynch leading the charge. Denver’s defense did a solid job limiting the run in both of its playoff wins, but it’s yet to run up against a running back cut from the excelled cloth of Beast Mode. The league’s top two field goal kickers in Prater & Hauschka competing against one another can only help over bettors provided Mother Nature doesn’t wreak havoc.

Joe Nelson

While the Super Bowls of the 1980s and 1990s featured a heavy lean to the ‘over’ the trend has flipped with six of the last nine Super Bowls playing ‘under’. Three of the last six Super Bowls have featured a total in the 50s and this year’s game currently features a total lower than 14 of the last 25 Super Bowls despite this game featuring two teams that are in the top eight in the league in scoring offense. The Broncos were the highest scoring regular season team in NFL history and if you take away the seven games against division rivals this is a Broncos team that averaged 41 points per game. In the four games against NFC teams Denver actually scored over 47 points per game on average. Seattle was statistically the best defense in the NFL this season by most measures but Seattle did play eight games against teams in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per play offense and the Seahawks only played three games against the NFL’s top 10 yards per play teams. The Seattle offense was much better than it often gets credit for as well as the Seahawks has scored almost 26 points per game this season despite playing 13 games against the top 15 teams in the league in total defense. The Seahawks actually played eight games this season against teams that finished in the top six in the NFL in total defense. By most measures Denver was a very average defense this season and while the Broncos have been sharp defensively in the playoffs the lower scoring games in the run to the Super Bowl has pushed this total to the lowest number in any Broncos game all season. The average total in a Denver game this season was 54 so there is almost an entire touchdown taken off with respect for Seattle’s defense. Weather is a valid concern for what should be the coldest Super Bowl ever but weather is often over compensated for in NFL games as the field will be meticulously cared for given the huge stage and the players have advanced equipment suitable for all conditions.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Advantage - Under
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

In our first SB XLVIII total piece, we provided you plenty of reasons why you should bet the ‘over’ on Sunday. For this column, we’ll turn our attention to the ‘under.’

Listed below are my quick thoughts, plus we have some great analysis from three handicappers on VegasInsider.com as well!

CD’s Angles

The ‘over’ went 127-107-2 (54%) during the regular season. However, the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 (80%) in the playoffs.

Even though Denver has leaned to the ‘over’ (11-7) this season, the ‘under’ has cashed in its last five games behind a defense that has only surrendered 17.4 PPG during this span.

The Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 12-6 (67%) this season and that includes a current run of seven straight ‘under’ tickets.

On the road, Seattle watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 but make a note that the three ‘over’ tickets came in games played indoors against Houston (23-20), Indianapolis (28-34) and Arizona (34-22). Plus, the game against the Texans went to overtime due to a late Houston collapse.

Since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, the team has gone 3-2 with rest and that includes this year’s 23-15 victory over New Orleans in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the result against the Saints, the ‘Hawks have allowed an average of 14.4 points per game with time to prepare.

Seattle has only had one appearance in the Super Bowl, which came in 2006. The Seahawks lost 21-10 to the Steelers and the combined 31 points never threatened the closing total of 47.

Peyton Manning has played in two Super Bowls and both games went ‘under’ the number.

2007 – Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 (UNDER 47)
2010 – Indianapolis 17 New Orleans 31 (UNDER 57)

Six of the last nine Super Bowls have stayed ‘under.’ Keep in mind that the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has alternated for the past six Super Bowls. Baltimore defeated San Francisco 34-31 in last year’s matchup, which was an easy ‘over’ ticket. If you believe this trend will hold, then the ‘under’ is due on Sunday.

Expert’s Angles

Joe Nelson


The record setting Denver offense certainly deserves some respect but who exactly did the Broncos have to play this season? Denver only played one game all season against a defense that finished the season in the top 11 of the league in yards per play defense. Eight of the 18 games for the Broncos came against a team in the bottom eight of the league in that measure. Thirteen of the 18 games for Denver came against teams ranking in the bottom 12 of the NFL in total defense as well.

Seattle was the ranked first in total defense this season by almost 20 yards per game as well as being the No. 1 scoring defense and the No. 1 yards per play defense. This is a historically great defense especially compared with the upward scoring of the league in general this season. The most passing yards against the Seahawks in the regular season was just 214 yards, the Saints did eclipse that mark in the divisional round of the playoffs but New Orleans did not score a single point through three quarters in that game, posting a total of 156 yards through its first eight possessions before getting a few late scores.

While the Seattle defense will get most of the attention, Denver has allowed just 15 points per game in the last four games despite some notable injuries. The scoring against Denver is also inflated with 30 of 33 points allowed in the two playoff games coming in the fourth quarter. Denver is currently the fourth best rush defense in the NFL in yards per game allowed, holding foes to less than 98 yards per game, on just 3.9 yards per carry, both figures that best the great Seattle defense against the run.

This matchup should play out favorably for both defenses as Seattle’s great rush offense will face a very good rush defense and the great passing game for Denver will deal with a great Seattle pass defense. Seattle has also been top takeaway team in the league, averaging 2.4 turnovers created per game and with this high number even one missed scoring opportunity could disrupt the scoring pace significantly. Add in a chance of poor weather and the added pressure and attention of this big game for two teams that were much better performers at home and it is easy to see this game unfolding as a lower scoring affair.

Paul Bovi

Under bettors will likely have to rely on the defenses to provide sufficient resistance so as to keep the scoring at a premium. Those favoring the low side of the number will undoubtedly point to Denver's resurgent defense which has held the opposition to an average of 15 points per game over their last four encounters, the latter two regular season games along with two playoff wins over San Diego and New England. While the Broncos lost CB Chris Harris and LB Von Miller to injury, the return of veteran CB Champ Bailey could very well help bolster their much maligned stop unit. Facing that defense is a Seahawks' offense which has been ordinary at best of late, having averaged only 22 points in its last five contests. In their two playoff wins that generated 23 points apiece, Seattle totaled an anemic 585 yards.

Mike Rose

The Seahawks were an under bettor’s best friend with it owning the league’s top-ranked points and total yardage allowed defenses. In all, Seattle played to low scorers in 10 of its 16 overall regular season games as well as in each playoff contest. Their games averaged a grand total of 40.3 PPG. Though Denver was largely an over team throughout a bulk of the 2013-14 season, it enters Super Bowl XLVIII having played to low scorers in five straight with the defense allowing just one of those opponents to tally 20-plus points. It just held quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots vaunted offense to 16 points and did it by completely shutting down running back LeGarrette Blount and company on the ground. If they’re able to limit Beast Mode as well, it will force head coach Pete Carroll to look to his less efficient passing game. If “Mother Nature” somehow plays a role in this contest, blustery conditions could also prevent both Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka from continuing to be the money kickers they were up to this point. Keeping numerous 3-spots off the board can only be beneficial to under bettors. The weather factor could also only force both teams to continue looking to the ground. With that the case, the clock becomes an ally of those expecting a low score with it tick, tick, ticking away.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Old School vs. New School                     
By Mike Muzyka  01/30/2014
Playbook.com

From a historical perspective, there are several noteworthy storylines that are part of Super Bowl XLVIII or "SB 48" for future reference. First, the weather may very well have an impact in some capacity on the outcome of the game. "Whether" or not the above mentioned "weather" factor will be significant could depend on anticipated snowfall, lack thereof, mid 30 degree temperature forecast and potential wind at MetLife Stadium. Commentary is provided for those football "fans" who are interested in totals and the projected total points scored in games. Although SB 48 won't be the first played outdoors, and also with potentially inclement / cold weather, it will be the first Super Bowl to be played in the modern era of high priced tickets where luxury and bragging ability come at a steep price and may offset the positive feelings and overtones of "old style" football played in "real football" type conditions.

Second, we have subtle "game within game" topics to discuss. Peyton Manning will lead his "second" team to his "third" Super Bowl. Manning can possibly put an end to, or at least minimize, commentary from all of his doubters that he is only "one of the best regular season QB's" of alltime when compared to other QB legends and Hall of Famers. Peyton, with a second Super Bowl title, can effectively stop all or most commentary that is raised time and time again about his inability to perform well and win in a cold weather climate setting. Speaking of QB's, SB 48 will have the biggest disparity ever, in differences of age, between the two starting Super Bowl QB's. Peyton Manning, at 37 years of age, represents the "Old School" train of thought on how the QB position should be played. Russell Wilson, twelve years Peyton's junior, represents the "New School" train of thought that highlights the athleticism of modern QB's. Either way, each QB has had a positive impact upon his team and presents a challenge to opposing defenses for different reasons.  Your decision to go with experience or youthful enthusiasm very well can be supported by the "experience", "passion" and "business acumen" of top rated professional (NFL) handicappers. Certainly, I would relish the opportunity to assist football fans of all types with providing the best available insight and prediction to the outcome of SB 48.   

Speaking of disparity among ages, or in this case, Denver's head coach (John Fox) will be revisiting the Super Bowl, in the same capacity, for the first time in 10 years. John Fox, in SB 38, lost to New England in an exciting manner and by the score of 32-29. Incidentally, there are only two other modern era head coaches who lost their first Super Bowl appearance, made it back to the "Big Show" 10 or more years after their initial loss and then went on to claim a victory in the Super Bowl in their second appearance. These coaches are Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher and Dick Vermeil who won his Super Bowl as head coach of the St. Louis Rams after having lost when he was head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. Cowher relied upon both RB Jerome "The Bus" Bettis and QB "Big Ben" Roethslisberger to guide a balanced offense by mixing effective power running and clutch passing in his Super Bowl victory as Pittsburgh's head coach. Vermeil and his "Greatest Show on Turf" potent offense also was well balanced and was lead by QB Kurt Warner and Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk. One can make an argument that Denver's record setting offense is also well balanced even though Peyton Manning obliterated several all time "passing" records this season. Knowshon Moreno, Denver's starting RB, rushed for over a 1,000 yards this season and had double digit TD's too (13 total). Manning also has access to a plethora of solid and productive WR's to keep opposing defenses on their respective heels. These receivers (Thomas, Decker and Welker) and Denver's TE (Thomas) present matchup problems to the opposition. Each receiver can go the distance, or pick up huge gains, by converting short, intermediate crossing route patterns that Peyton executes very effectively.         

It is obvious that Peyton Manning represents "Old School" mentality. Manning is cerebral, studies the opposition for tendencies to take advantage of and is the classic drop back, pocket passer. The results of Peyton's preparation and play has lead to record setting regular season statistics this season. Manning    had almost surreal passing performances and set passing yardage and TD (55) records while leading the Denver Broncos to the number one playoff seed and league best 13-3 record (matched by Seattle this season). However, the stigma associated with Manning is his 11-11 overall playoff record. Incidentally, and from a recent historical perspective, the two teams finished the 2005 season with identical 13-3 records. The 2005 season also represents the only time the Seattle Seahawks appeared in a Super Bowl (having lost 21-10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers). In addition, the Seahawks were minimal underdogs (4.5 points), in SB 40, with the game going (Under) the total points scored line (47 points). Ironically, Seattle finds itself in the underdog role again (2.5 points at time of publication) with the same Over and Under total (47) points scored line as they did 8 years ago. Therefore, will we see a continuance of Peyton not delivering in the playoffs or Seattle repeating their previous Super Bowl performance? Can Peyton pull it off and win a second SB or will Seattle ride to victory on the back of "Beast Mode" and their top ranked league defense as so many past teams have done in past Super Bowls?

Another area to visit is the style and team composition or makeup / philosophy of Denver and Seattle. This Super Bowl represents the leagues two top ranked teams with respect to offense and defense. Denver's number one ranked offense battles Seattle's number one ranked defense. The only other time both top ranked teams squared off, in the Super Bowl, was the Tampa Bay / Oakland blowout in 2002. We can only wonder what happens when, using an old saying, "an irresistible force meets an immovable object" and referencing these two top teams in their respective categories and strengths. Another cliche comparison that could apply, to this game, is "offense fills seats and wins regular season games" while "defense wins Championships". There may be more truth to the above statement(s) than one might initially think. 18 teams, with the top ranked offense, have made it to the Super Bowl with 10 teams prevailing as winners of the "Big Show". However, 15 teams have gone to the Super Bowl with the top ranked defense and also sport a 12-3 winning record. Seattle's defense is dominant and has played well in both the regular season and two (home) playoff games. Not too many negative items to mention with this bunch. Denver's defense represents somewhat of an interesting and perplexing overall observation. The Broncos defense was somewhat average during the regular season and ranked 19th (overall) in yards allowed, per game, while also yielding 25 points per contest. It's relevant to mention that Denver and Seattle tied for a 7th ranking in rushing yards (102) allowed per game. This statistic should be noted and certainly might alter one or both team offensive game plans. Let's face it, the Seahawks typically win or lose games based upon the performance of Pro Bowl RB Marshawn Lynch with all due respect to their punishing and stingy defense. However, it would be foolish to think that Seattle can just come out and play smash mouth football in an attempt to wear down Denver and utilize a clock management strategy to keep the ball out of 5 time (soon to be) league MVP – Peyton Manning. The reason, Denver recently has exhibited a stout defense lead by defensive (nose) tackle Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton. In fact, Denver's defense has risen to the occasion and played solid in back to back home playoff games vs. San Diego and New England. Neither the Chargers nor Patriots scored a TD in the first three quarters of their respective playoff games, Divisional and AFC Championship, against Denver. Additionally, both teams scored a total of "3 combined points", through three quarters, against a "Pot Roast" lead defense sans Pro Bowl LB Von Miller and Denver's top shut down cornerback. The Broncos defense seems to be peaking at the right time and similar to the much maligned Indianapolis Colts defense, in 2006, when the Colts won the Super Bowl XLI played against the Chicago Bears.

Seattle's defense might actually thrive against Denver's potent passing "quack" attack. Peyton Manning has only attempted "7" passes, of 20 or more yards, during postseason play. Additionally, Seattle's All World, All Everything CB – Richard Sherman will look to back up his recent commentary and observation regarding Peyton Manning and how he throws "Ducks" out on the field. Always one to compliment, Sherman did add that Peyton is an intelligent QB who is very accurate and on time with his throws. The "Legion of Boom" will be looking to "lower the boom" on Peyton and spoil his (Disney World?) parade. Seattle's starting and substitute defensive linemen will look to apply pressure, on Manning, in hopes of causing a sack or turnover. Manning, on the other hand, will try to counter with short to intermediate routes and pick apart the league's number one secondary if they make little or no adjustments to pre and post snap positions and responsibilities. Seattle's defense typically makes few changes to their pre snap alignment and dares the opposition to beat them straight up. The Seahawks defenders are that confident and that successful as evident by their top league ranking. Peyton looks to take advantage of mismatches and will try to test the waters by possibly relying on more of a run based attack. Essentially, there are several scenarios that can cause uncertainty amongst the avid football fan who likes to take part in recreational and fun loving football activities.  MJM Sportsline / Magic Mike is more than capable of helping you sort through all of the "hoopla", overwhelming statistical data and meaningless media propaganda that tends to influence those individuals who don't have a trusted money manager and professional handicapper on their side. I want to be on your side and I also want you to join me on the "winning side" of this Super Bowl play(s)!

To summarize, we will most likely get to enjoy one of the better Super Bowl games in recent memory (similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers / Arizona Cardinals thriller in Tampa?) as the NFL's top ranked offense does battle with the league's top ranked defense. Football fans should have a good blend of "old school" tactics (i.e. Peyton Manning who represents the classic "old style" pocket, drop back passers of years ago and Seattle's "old school' offensive / defensive approach, and game plan, to rush the football and play stout defense. The "new school" train of thought and tactic will focus on Seattle's athletic, but inexperienced QB (Russell Wilson) trying to outwit, outperform and even out produce Denver's All Pro QB and wunderkind (Peyton Manning) and his "new style" approach to winning football games via the pass. Look for an exciting game that just might come down to the wire, and possibly even the last play, to decide Super Bowl XLVIII's winning team.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

SBXLVIII - Prop Predictions
VegasInsider.com

According to Jay Kornegay, Vice President of Race & Sports at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, proposition wagers will account for 55-60% of their handle on Super Bowl XLVIII.

Kornegay and his staff at the LVH have outdone themselves again this year with hundreds of props available for the betting public.

Similar to past Super Bowls, we chose 10 of the most popular props for this year’s matchup and asked seven of our analysts to make a prediction.

1) Which player will score the 1st Touchdown?

Antony Dinero: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
Brian Edwards: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Chris David: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Joe Nelson: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (15/1)
Kevin Rogers: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Mike Rose: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Sheldon Frank: Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (10/1)

Consensus: Eric Decker & Julius Thomas

Quick Thoughts – Brian Edwards: I like the props that have big payouts. I want the majority of my bankroll to be on the side or total, and then I like to make small plays on the props that have nice payouts. For instance, the player to score the first touchdowns. I've hit this twice in recent years, nailing Devin Hester on the opening kickoff at 25/1 odds in the Bears' loss to the Colts and Peyton Manning. And I hit Anquan Boldin last season at 12/1 odds. This year there are four quality options in my opinion. Denver TE Jacob Tamme caught the first TD against the Pats in the AFC title game, and he's available at 18/1 odds. Denver WRs Wes Welker and Eric Decker are at 10/1, while Seattle WR and special-teams ace Percy Harvin is at 12/1. I'll go with Decker (10/1).

2) Will either team score three straight times? YES (-175) NO (+155)

Antony Dinero: NO
Brian Edwards: NO
Chris David: YES
Joe Nelson: YES
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: NO
Sheldon Frank: YES

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: This is always a tricky prop as scoring three straight times sounds less likely than it actually is. ‘Yes’ would have hit in 14 of 18 Seattle games this season including each of the last five games and only once all season in 18 games did Denver or Denver’s opponent fail to score three consecutive times.

3) Will Peyton Manning throw an Interception? YES (-200) NO (+175)

Antony Dinero: YES
Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: YES
Sheldon Frank: YES

Consensus: YES

Quick Thoughts – Kevin Rogers: Peyton Manning has thrown just 11 interceptions in 18 games this season. Three of those interceptions came in a Week 8 over Washington, so his ill-advised throws are few and far between. We know about all of the publicity Richard Sherman has received recently and Manning will not force throws to his side of the field. The return is excellent on this prop, as I’ll take the shot with Manning not tossing a pick on Sunday.

Quick Thoughts – Mike Rose: The Seahawks picked off a league best 20 passes in the regular season and added two more in the NFC championship game. Only four games were played to entirety without the Seahawks intercepting at least one pass, and two of those games came against cagey veteran Drew Brees. While Peyton Manning is cut from the same cloth as the Saints field general, he is well known for coming up short in the biggest of games and this one going on Sunday doesn’t get any bigger. This Seahawks defense is relentless and has no problem talking the talk, but unlike most mouthpieces, they also walk the walk. Richard Sherman and his mates will make it extremely tough for #18 to find much breathing room, and that will force him to try and squeeze the pigskin into tight places on a couple of occasions. I foresee at least one of those instances leading directly to an interception leading to a mopey Manning on the sideline furiously breaking down the printed footage on the sideline with his OC.

4) Total Field Goals Made by both teams. OVER 3.5 (+130) UNDER 3.5 (-150)

Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: OVER

5) Total Touchdowns Scored by both teams. OVER 5.5 (+120) UNDER 5.5 (-140)

Antony Dinero: UNDER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: UNDER

Consensus: UNDER

6) Total Completions by Russell Wilson. OVER 16.5 (-110) UNDER 16.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: Wilson had 16 or fewer completions in five of the last six games but in the five games in which he was held below that figure down the stretch he faced a team that finished in the top 8 of the NFL in total defenses. Denver has a great run defense but the pass defense has been shaky at times, an area made worse with recent injuries. Look for Seattle to work in some easy throws early to get the young quarterback comfortable on the big stage. Denver allowed over 22 completions to opponents per game this season with only two foes all season held below 18 and the priority for the Broncos should be stopping the run which could open up opportunities in the air.

7) Longest Rush by Marshawn Lynch. OVER 17.5 (-110) UNDER 17.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: OVER

8) Total Gross Passing Yards by Peyton Manning. OVER 286.5 (-110) UNDER 286.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: UNDER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: In the playoffs, New Orleans QB Drew Brees threw for 309 yards against Seattle but that was the only time all season a quarterback came close to this figure and most of those yards came in garbage time as Seattle mostly had the game in hand until the dicey few minutes.

9) Most Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch -30.5 (-110) vs. Knowshon Moreno +30.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: Knowshon Moreno
Brian Edwards: Marshawn Lynch
Chris David: Marshawn Lynch
Joe Nelson: Knowshon Moreno
Kevin Rogers: Knowshon Moreno
Mike Rose: Knowshon Moreno
Sheldon Frank: Marshawn Lynch

Consensus: Knowshon Moreno

Quick Thoughts – Sheldon Frank: When you think of the Seahawk offense, you think of running back Marshawn Lynch. Yes, there are plays when Russell Wilson buys time by scrambling and then hits a receiver deep but when the Seahawks want to make a statement, they hand the ball to No. 24. Knowshon Moreno gashes teams when they're geared to stop the Broncos' passing game. Beast Mode is the more talented and more durable running back and is at the heart of what Seattle does offensively. Go with Marshawn Lynch to out-gain Knowshon Moreno on the ground by at least 31 yards because he's, "all about the action, Boss!"

10) Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass? YES (+210) NO (-250)

Antony Dinero: NO
Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: YES
Sheldon Frank: NO

Consensus: NO

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com 

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Super Bowl XLVIII matchup features the top-ranked high-octane offense of the Denver Broncos gaining 457.3 yards/game scoring a league best 37.9 points/game against the top-ranked defense of the Seattle Seahawks surrendering 273.6 yards/game while allowing a league-low 14.4 per/contest. Broncos are 11-6-1 ATS to this point with a winning margin of 12.4 PPG, 5-3 ATS on the road. The Seahawks are 12-6 ATS winning by an average 11.1 PPG, 6-2 ATS away from home. 'Rest' assured Denver has an edge. In Broncos 13 previous games with a week of rest they're 10-3 ATS, Seahawks are 3-10-1 ATS last 14 with added shut-eye. The last nine Super Bowls that have gone off with spreads of 3.5 or less the favorite is 5-3 SU/ATS. Broncos guided by Manning are 9-2 ATS when spotting less than a touchdown. Other notable betting nuggets for Super Bowl XLVIII. The NFC has controlled the last 25 Super Bowls, going 15-10 SU but factor in the great equalizer they're just 9-15-1 against-the-spread. The past 15 Super Bowls it's the AFC holding the upper hand at 9-6 (6-8-1 ATS) but recent trends show the NFC has a slight 3-2 SU edge the past five Super Bowls with a sparkling 4-1 mark against the betting line. Backing underdogs the past 15 Super Bowls had you at the cash window cashing ten tickets (10-4-1 ATS) including 6-3 ATS with an NFC squad. The O/U is 6-9 past 15 Big-Games with an average combined score of 49.9.

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Super Bowl XLVIII Betting: Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Covers.com

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2, 48)

Peyton Manning has commanded center stage from the moment he was taken with the top overall draft pick in 1998 and the spotlight will never be brighter than when he leads the Denver Broncos against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.

Manning put together the finest season by a quarterback in NFL history - shattering records for touchdowns and yards - and a victory could settle the debate of whether he is the greatest quarterback of all time. Conversely, a loss by the Broncos will drop the league's only four-time (and soon to be five) MVP below .500 in the postseason and 1-2 in Super Bowls to bolster the argument by his detractors that he continually comes up short in the big game.

Who's No. 1? It is the quintessential matchup, pitting the Broncos' top-ranked offense against Seattle's league-best defense, marking only the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the NFL's highest-scoring team (Denver, 606 points) squared off against an opponent that surrendered the fewest points (Seattle, 231).

“We wouldn’t have it any other way,” bombastic Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said. “They’re an unbelievable record-setting offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s as tough as it gets. The No. 1 defense against the No. 1 offense.” It is also only the second time in 20 seasons that the No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl - the last coming when Manning's Indianapolis Colts lost to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV four years ago.

The first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl - and the potential for playing in a blizzard - caused a lot of teeth-gnashing leading up to the game, but conditions are expected to be relatively benign with temperatures in the mid-30s and light winds. That's a huge plus for Manning and a Broncos' offense that features an unprecedented five players to have scored at least 10 touchdowns.

“We’ve spread the ball around so well all season, so it’s hard for teams to know who to key on,” said Manning, who was held to a season-low 150 yards passing in bitter cold and high winds at New England in late November. Seattle has built a legendary home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field but like Denver, has already played at MetLife this season. The Seahawks blanked the New York Giants 23-0 on Dec. 15 while the Broncos scored 31 second-half points in a 41-23 victory over the Giants on Sept. 15.

Looking for more betting info on Super Bowl XLVIII? Here are our 48 betting notes for betting Super Bowl XLVIII.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s, above freezing with a 23 percent chance of rain turning to ice pellets in the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow NNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium at speeds of 4-6 mph.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at a pick'em and immediately drew action on the Broncos, pumping the spread as high as Denver -3.5. Seahawks money came back and bought the underdog, trimming this line down to -2. The total opened 47.5 and was bet down to 47 with the extended forecast calling for bad weather in East Rutherford. However, with the weather clearing up, action on the Over has drive the number as high as 48.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.3) - Broncos (-7.0) = Seahawks -0.3

KEY INJURIES: Seattle: Jordan Hill DT (Prob. - Groin), Percy Harvin WR (Prob. - Concussion), Doug Baldwin WR (Prob. - Hip), Brandon Browner (Out - Suspension). Denver: Mitch Unrein DT (Prob. - Knee), Knowshon Moreno (Prob. - Ribs), Tony Carter CB (Prob. - Arm), Matt Prater (Prob. Illness), Sione Fua (Ques. - Calf).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "If we don't start seeing more Seahawks money we might, might have to get to Denver -3. Personally, I don't want that to happen but everyone is in love with the Broncos and with the early weather reports calling for a decent day in Jersey, getting to -3 isn't out of the question. At this point, it might be the only way to see some Seahawks money but it really will expose us to getting sided on the biggest game of the year. Going to -3 and then this game landing three, I'll be looking for work come Monday." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Looks like line will not hit key number of +3. Has already dropped from +2.5 to +2 at many sportsbooks. Surprisingly, the O/U line has come back down from 48.5 to 48, however, I think the public will push this higher on Sunday. If a +3 does show on Sunday with more public money on Denver, I believe it will quickly disappear with Seahawks money at +3. Line will likely close around +2 like it is now." - Steve Merril.

WHY BET SEATTLE (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Aside from allowing 14.4 points per game, Seattle surrendered the fewest total yards and passing yards while leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), including a league-best eight by Sherman. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins (27) in his first two seasons but he did not throw for more than one touchdown or 215 yards in his past six games.

One of the reasons is bullish running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gone over 100 yards four times in six postseason games and rushed for 249 yards and three TDs in the Seahawks' playoff wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. Wilson will also get back a big weapon in wideout Percy Harvin, who played in only one game during the regular season after recovering from hip surgery and suffered a concussion in the victory over New Orleans that caused him to miss the next contest.

WHY BET DENVER (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Add in Wes Welker (87 catches, 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches, 12 TDs) along with 1,000-yard rusher Knowshon Moreno and it's not hard to see why Manning threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards - both NFL single-season records.

Denver's high-powered offense overshadowed a much-maligned defense that has made enormous strides and yielded an average of 14 points over the past four games since a 27-20 home loss to San Diego on Dec. 12. "We kind of made a pact after the San Diego loss," said Broncos coach John Fox, the sixth coach to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl. "Basically, everybody made a pact that we're going to be the best we can be these last five games. We've gone through four of them; we've got one remaining."

SUPER BOWL TRENDS:

* The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

* This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

* The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

* The big story in the world of NFL totals this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the Over.

CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets on Broncos (-2), 51 percent on Over 48.

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