Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 3

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 3

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
The Cowboys come into tonight's Cotton Bowl looking to bounce back from a 33-24 loss to Oklahoma in the season finale and improve on their 12-2 ATS record in their last 14 games following an ATS defeat. Oklahoma State is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+1 1/2)

Game 261-262: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 119.981; Missouri 105.881
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 14; 64
Vegas Line: Missouri by 1 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 263-264: Clemson vs. Ohio State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 104.834; Ohio State 114.123
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 9 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-2 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

NCAAB

Drexel at Southern Mississippi
The Dragons come in with a 3-2 road record to face a Southern Miss team that is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Golden Eagles are the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has Southern Miss favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-7)

Game 815-816: Georgia at George Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 58.552; George Washington 69.637
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 11
Vegas Line: George Washington by 9
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-9)

Game 817-818: Drexel at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 54.815; Southern Mississippi 64.011
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 9
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 7
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-7)

Game 821-822: NE-Omaha at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 51.718; Hawaii 63.970
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-8 1/2)

NHL

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New York Knicks vs. Houston RocketsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New York Knicks +11½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Knicks have home loss revenge for a 109-106 loss to Houston at the Garden earlier in the season and we can expect another closely contested hard fought game here tonight. We saw what they did last night, taking down the Spurs on the road with 4 days rest and avenging their worst loss of the season. They may be ready to finally gain some momentum and play up to their level of last season, instead of toiling at the back of the pack, like they have done for most of this season. The Knicks are 4-0 ats as a road dog of 10 or more with no rest off a road game last night and all road teams in Houston and getting 10+ points have covered 4 straight if they were on the road last night. The Rockets are 1-7 to the spread at home with rest as a favorite if they are off an ats loss of 10 or more as a home favorite in their last game. Now for our Super system side. Play against non divisional home favorites at -10 or higher with rest that are off a home favored spread loss by 7+ points and scored 90 or more if they allowed 100 or more and are playing an opponent, like NY Tonight that was a road dog of 10 or more points in their last game. These home favorites are 4-26 ats and 1-18 if they were favored by 5 or more in that home loss. With Melo back for the Knicks, Look for NY To stick around tonight. Take the Points.


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Wunderdog

Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Pick: Oklahoma State PK

The 10-2 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet the 11-2 Missouri Tigers in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri was the surprise of the SEC this season as they opened the season at 7-0. They got some title talk, but they lost a tough one at home in overtime to South Carolina by 3 points. The Gamecocks remained a one loss team until getting drubbed by Auburn 59-42 in the SEC title game. Over the past few seasons, Oklahoma State has garnered a reputation of big offense and no defense, but that has changed this year. The Cowboys can still get up and down the field, but their defense has improved dramatically. Oklahoma State held six teams to 17 points or less on the season, which included Baylor - a team that averaged over 50 points per game. I think that when the dust settles the D will be the deciding factor in this contest. The Tigers' defense was exposed by Auburn who put up 677 yards against them, providing a blueprint. When it comes time to get that one extra stop in a close game, I'm prone to think that Oklahoma State is more capable of getting it. The Cowboys are 38-18 ATS on field turf in their last 56, and have covered six of their last seven coming in. Under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys are 50-22 ATS as a favorite and 24-13 ATS vs. good passing teams like Missouri (teams averaging 250+ passing yards per game). Take Oklahoma State.

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Wolverhampton -125 over GILLINGHAMSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re going to experience the delightful and muddy fields of the lower tiers of English soccer, where Gillingham hosts Wolverhampton Wanderers. The Wanderers fell on hard times in recent years, being in the top division of English Soccer just a couple of years back, but now look to be thriving in the lower levels. They sit second in the table and can go ahead of leaders Brentford with a win on Friday, and that’s exactly what we are backing.
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The stresses of the Christmas calendar have taken their toll on the home side, with midfielders Amine Linganzi, Danny Hollands and Myles Weston all out with injuries. Whilst Wolverhampton have their first choice goalkeeper out, having Welsh international Wayne Hennessey back from loan makes this a significantly softer blow. Gillingham’s poor Christmas form sees them just two points away from the relegation zone in an incredibly tight League 1 table, having picked up just one win in their last six games. Wolverhampton on the other hand survived the Christmas calendar undefeated and looks set to push forward their promotion chances with a win here.
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One factor to remember is that lower league games often don’t get televised in England, with the preference being on the English Premier League and other big leagues in Europe. When playing on television, smaller sides can often be affected negatively in a psychological way. Gillingham has never reached the top league in English football and were last in the second tier eight years ago. Compared with Wolverhampton, who were in the Premier League just two years ago, Gillingham has very little experience of playing under the eyes of national television. Many smaller sides buckle from the pressure of the nations’ scrutiny and it might just be the difference between these sides that works in the favor of the visitor.

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Ohio State -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clemson Tigers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Orange Bowl on Friday night. If you like scoring this just might be the game for you because there should be plenty. The Buckeyes were a win away from playing in the BCS National Championship game. They were denied by Michigan State who have one of the top rated defenses in the nation. Clemson had their piece of the action earlier in the season when they were crushed by now number one Florida State.
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The Clemson Tigers are led by QB Tajh Boyd. He threw for 29 TD’s with only 9 INT’s this year. His favorite target is WR Sammy Watkins who figures to be a handful for the dreadful Ohio State secondary, he should also be the first receiver taken in the 2014 NFL draft Watkins caught 10 TD’s and amassed 1,237 receiving yards. That helped them average 40 points per game. The defense, while very capable of defending the pass have been suspect against the run. They surrendered 94 rushing yards to South Carolina’s QB Connor Shaw.
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The Ohio State Buckeyes are led by QB Braxton Miller who is a dual threat quarterback, he threw for 1860 yards and ran for another 1033 yards. That could present a real problem for the Tigers. When Miller does throw the ball he has a couple of good WR’s in Brown and Smith who combined for 18 of the 22 TD’s Miller threw. The Buckeyes rank fifth in the nation on defense against the run, but only 106th against the pass. You can see where we have the potential to burn out a few bulbs on the scoreboard.
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Ohio State has played a little better versus good opponents this year, though neither team has faced many. The Buckeyes were not permitted to play in a bowl last year due to NCAA sanctions. I look for HC Meyer to have them ready to play this game I lean to the Ohio State Buckeyes -3 to cover the spread in this year’s Orange Bowl.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver NuggetsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Denver Nuggets -3½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nuggets fell below .500 at home with a loss to the Sixers on Tuesday, quite a turnaround after finishing an NBA best 38-3 at home last season. They are mired in their longest losing streak in over a decade, dropping eight in a row.
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Most of those losses came against top tier teams, such as Miami, Oklahoma City, Golden State and the L.A. Clippers. Tonight they catch a banged up Memphis team playing on the back end of a back to back after winning in Phoenix last night.
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The thin air in Denver in tough on opponents at the best of times, but could be an even greater factor with Memphis playing on consecutive nights.
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The Grizzlies had their way with Denver in Memphis last week, winning 120-99. Kenneth Faried was still battling through injuries in that game, scoring just three points in 13 minutes. He's coming off his best performance since returning to the lineup, with 12 points on 6-of-9 shooting, logging 22 minutes versus the Sixers.
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The Nuggets might just turn "The Manimal" loose against the Grizz.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas MavericksSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Both teams are rested and the Clippers are living up to the hype, playing well and ranked 5th in the NBA in scoring, 12th in points allowed. That is great balance, clearly producing for new Coach Doc Rivers. LA is on a 7-3 ATS run and the Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on one days rest, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. They face a Dallas squad that is on the playoff bubble, currently the No. 8 seed in the West. Dallas doesn't play much defense, 18th in points allowed and 19th in field goal shooting defense, allowing .458%. The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta HawksSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Atlanta Hawks +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Golden State Warriors are coming off a huge road win over the defending champions in Miami last night, and it was another big game for Stephen Curry. He shocked the world last season with a 54 point performance at MSG, and led the Warriors on an improbable playoff run. Still, the Warriors and their superstar guard could be in tough on the road as a favorite in Atlanta, against a Hawks team that is 12-4 at home so far.
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1: Situational/Motivational - Curry and the Warriors could be primed for a let down after last night's emotional win over the Heat. It's worth noting that after scoring 54 points on the Knicks in New York last season, he followed up by going 6-of-22 from the field in his next game in Boston, and the Warriors lost 94-86.
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2: Fatigue - Golden State is not only playing on back-to-back nights, but it's third game in four nights. The Hawks haven't played since defeating the Celtics 92-91 in Boston on Tuesday.
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3: X-Factor - The Hawks will be without Al Horford for the rest of the season, but in three games since Horford went down, Paul Millsap has averaged 28 points on 51% shooting and 11.7 rebounds.

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AC DineroFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Clemson vs. Ohio StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Clemson +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Like Alabama, Ohio St lost its chance to play for the BCS championship by losing their last game. They should move the ball, and they convert 49% on 3rd down. But what is their motivation for this game? They aren't particularly physical on defense, which is what gives Clemson problems. The Tigers should hit some plays in the passing game and QB runs. What I like about the Clemson defense is 3rd down, where they only give up 32%. These 2 teams are mirror images of each other, and there could be a few points scored in this game. But look for Clemson to pull it out, as it is the final game for a couple of their starts, QB Taj Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins. Also, the Tigers want to atone for their last appearance in the Orange Bowl, where they gave up a 70 spot.

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Oklahoma State vs. MissouriFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Missouri +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Flying under the National radar, Missouri has been pretty good to us this Season. Missouri is a talented SEC Team, well coached, with a Sr. QB playing in his last game. Missouri can also play defense and brings a good pass rush into Tonights game. This line of +1.5 looks like a good buy sign for me.
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Clemson vs. Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ohio State -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect Ohio St to beat Clemson by dominating the line of scrimmage on Offense and being able to run the ball at will vs Clemson's defense. Ohio St has the advantage in Coaching with plenty of time to prepare. Urban Meyer Coached Teams are 21-5 ATS with 2 or more weeks off, 16-4 ATS off a Loss, and 7-1 in Bowl games.

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Carlos Salazar

Clemson vs. Ohio State
Play: Over 70

Points will come early and often in this matchup in the Orange Bowl between Clemson and Ohio St. Both teams have struggled this season against high powered offense. Look for this one to be over the total by the end of the 3rd quarter.


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DAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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NEBRASKA OMAHA AT HAWAIIFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska-Omaha is a team that’s probably a complete unknown to most casual college basketball observers. But this under the radar Mavericks squad has opened some eyes while getting off to a 10-4 start.
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If you’re looking for a signature win from the Mavericks, there aren’t any. The ten wins have come against a collection of mediocre entries. Their best victory is the 82-80 nod at Nevada, and the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly a juggernaut. Actually, my positive impression of this team comes more from their losses.
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Omaha led at Iowa at the half, before falling by eight as the Hawkeyes came on strong in the last ten minutes of that game. They took UNLV to the wire in a three point loss, ans while the Rebels weren’t very good at that point, it was still a solid showing from the Mavs. UNO battled Drake on even terms until late in the game before succumbing by eight. Plus, the Mavericks led Minnesota into the second half before the Golden Gophers finally put them down.
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That ledger indicates a couple of things. One is that Omaha can play a little. The other is that they sure aren’t getting intimidated facing far more established entries. I think this all bodes well for them as they take on Hawaii tonight.
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As for the Rainbow Warriors, Gib Arnold has his team playing some good basketball. They’re sitting at 10-3, and making good use of what remains a substantial home court advantage due to beautiful distractions on the islands as well as all those miles. Hawaii might not be the chalk in the Big West, but they’re a serious contender and seeing them at the Big Dance this season would not be a shock.
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This game should be played at a very fast pace. That’s UNO’s style, and Hawaii’s preferred pace as well. It looks to me like a game that should be entertaining, and competitive to boot. That island magic is always a concern when backing a visitor to Hawaii, but I’m going to side with Nebraska-Omaha to at least stay within the spread.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Knicks/Rockets Over 207½FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The total on this game is set far to low for a matchup that should end up being a shootout. Houston is averaging an impressive 105.4 points per game at home this season, and even the Knicks should put up a big number since the Rockets are allowing an average of 102.5 points per game. In their last five games the Knicks have boosted their scoring average from 95 points per game to 97 points per game. They have yet to face a defense as soft as Houston's during that stretch.
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The Knicks are a bad team, but they have been saved several times throughout the season thanks to solid defensive play. That defense seems to be gone because New York has allowed opponents 106.4 points per game in their last five games. The Rockets defense is also trending in the wrong direction, giving up an average of 103 points per game in their last five games. You should play the over when the total is greater than 200 points, and one of the teams (Houston) is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, against an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more. This system is 54-25 in favor of the over for the last five seasons.

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Doug UpstoneFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Boston CelticsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New Orleans Pelicans -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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On Friday, Play On road teams like New Orleans with a shooting percentage between 43.5-45.5%, against a similar defensive team like Boston (43.5-45.5%), after a game allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. The logic for this free NBA play is teams like Pelicans are more focused on the defensive end the next time out and the past five seasons they are 34-8 ATS, 81 percent.

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Raptors vs. Washington WizardsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto Raptors +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and it is time to ride the wave a little farther. Not only are they playing much better but they are winning on the road. They have won 5 of their last 6 away from the ACC including beating top teams like Oklahoma City. They are a shiny 11-5 ATS as the visitor this season and face an inconsistent Washington team who is not overly strong at home. This is a spot play but get on it soon as the number may lose some value as we approach gametime.

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Carolina SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah vs. Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 195½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lakers are 25-7 OVER off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Lakers are 10-0 OVER in home games off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite since 1996. Lakers are 20-5 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or less since 1996. Lakers are 16-5 OVER against Northwest division opponents with D'Antoni as the Head Coach. Utah is 105-67 OVER in road games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since 1996. Take the over.

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Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Hornets / Celtics Over 200FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Line:  An opening of 201 for this game in Boston and it has drifted down to 200 at this writing. It would NOT surprise me to see it go lower by game time tonight and has already seen 199 at Pinny and others..
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Why We Bet It:  I do understand that this betting number almost looks obscene as we rarely see a Celtic Total Posted at 200 or more. In fact scanning their last 10 games we have seen just one an it was exactly 200 verses the high flying Wolves. That game went Under. So why the OVER here? After all the last 8 of 9 played between these two have played Under and the last 12 of 14 here in Boston have as well. Plus the Market seems to agree with those trends. It is because of the Pelicans who have demonstrated that they have no desire to play defense, ranked #25 in the league and even worse than that when they travel. They do however have strong OE at #6 and because of that their games away from home have seen 210 points per outing average-wise. Their last few games verses crawlers, Memphis, Chicago, Bobcats, all went OVER the mark and in each game they netted Over 100 points. In fact in those 3 they averaged an amazing 113! These things make our number here higher than what Books have and it is 205.7. That's good enough to play.
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Biggest Concerns:  Overall the Celtics OE has been pretty dismal of late failing to hit the century mark 4 of their last 5 games, although 2 of those came verses the Bulls and Pacers which are 2 of the lower pace and better D's in the league..
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Added Notes:   You can play this game up to 202 but no further than that and I do not expect it to hit that level anyway..

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Rickie RobbinsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver NuggetsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Denver Nuggets hope to put a halt to their eight-game skid tonight when they play host to the Memphis Grizzlies.
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The Grizzlies have won four of their last six and are coming off an impressive 99-91 win over the surging Suns thanks to 20 [points and 15 rebounds from Zach Randolph and plenty of support from the bench. In particular Jerryd Bayless was clutch in the fourth quarter, finishing with 17 points while Ed Davis provided some unexpected production with 16 points and 11 rebounds in just 28 minutes off the bench. With the win, Memphis improve to 14-17 overall and 7-6 on the road.
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Meanwhile, the Nuggets just can't buy a win these days, losing eight straight and 11 of their last 14. On Wednesday, things went from bad to worse as the Nuggets got run off the floor by the 76ers in their own building. JJ Hickson led hte team with 19 points, while Wilson Chandler added 16, but the Nuggets could never recover from a horror 44-26 second quarter where they allowed the Sixers gain the momentum and eventaully cruise to victory by 114-102. With the loss, Denver drop to 14-17 overall and 7-8 at home.
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In ATS trends, the Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record, while the Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
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The Nuggets have been in a world of hurt for a while now and it doesn't really seem like they're on the verge of turning things around so I'm a little surprised that they're favorites in this game. With that being said, I still think that the Nuggets have a decent shot at ending their losing streak tonight, but I'm still taking the Grizzlies with the points in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 3

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Clemson/ Ohio State Over 70.5: The Clemson Tigers come in with the 12th ranked passing offense in the nation, behind QB Tahj Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins. Now they take on a Buckeye defense that has been horrendous vs the pass, ranking 105th in the nation. The Buckeye offense has been explosive and they will be going up against the weakness of the Clemson defense. The Clemson Tigers are a solid 14th vs the pass this year, but 50th vs the run and will be facing the Buckeyes 3rd ranked rushing offense. Both teams will come out firing in this game and when faced vs strong offenses both defenses have struggled this year. I see it happening again as we get at least 72 points in this one.

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