Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

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NFL Betting

Denver Broncos / Chargers Over 57

The Broncos are the #1 team in the NFL offensively averaging 466 yards per game and 42.9 ppg. San Diego is averaging 403 yards per game (6th in NFL) and averaging 24 ppg. Defensively the Broncos are 24th in the NFL, and they are giving up 27.2 papg. The Chargers are 29th in the NFL and are giving up 21.8 papg. The Chargers also rank dead last (32nd) giving up 6.4 yards per play, which is not a good sign going against a Peyton Manning run offense. Both QBs have had great seasons and should be able to put up points against the 28th (San Diego) and 30th (Denver) ranked pass defenses. Road games haven't bothered Peyton and his no huddle offense, as the Broncos have put up 41, 51, and 33 points on the road. The OVER is a perfect 8-0 for Denver this year and 46-17-1 in their last 64 games overall. The OVER is also 34-16-1 in the Broncos last 51 vs AFC opponents. The OVER is 5-1 in the Chargers last 6 games following a loss, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs divisional opponents. The OVER is also 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings. I'll take the OVER again here with the Broncos as two good offenses go head to head

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Bob Balfe

Falcons +3.5

Atlanta has struggled this year due to injury, but most will overlook today that the Seahawks usually always struggle on the road, their best receiver is out for the year and they will be missing a few guys on their offensive line which includes their starting center. This is a tough stadium to win in and I think Atlanta will establish the run today which will allow Matt Ryan to find guys wide open. Take the Falcons.

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Jimmy Boyd

New York Giants -7

The New York Giants have won their last two games coming into this week's matchup with the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders were torched by the Eagles last week, losing 49-20 with one of the most embarrassing defensive performances of the season. The Giants are coming off a bye week, but prior to that bye they held the Eagles to just seven points.

Oakland's offense has struggled on the road this season, averaging just 15 points per game. The defense has been even worse, allowing opponents to score an average of 27.3 points per game. The once turnover prone Giants seem to have those problems taken care of, averaging just one turnover in each of their past two games. The Raiders on the other hand seem to have taken over that role, turning the ball over a combined eight times in their last three games. The Giant's should have no problem winning this game at home, and I expect the margin to be double-digits.

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Kyle Hunter

Texans vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 42

The Houston Texans has been great statistically this year. As long as the offense takes care of the football a little better, this Texans defense is fully capable of shutting out the opponent. They are first in the NFL in pass defense, and the Arizona Cardinals have very little running game. Arizona's defense is solid, and they are better on their home field. Look for both quarterbacks to be under pressure all game from the strong pass rushes. Take the under.

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Dave Price

LA Lakers +4

The Timberwolves are off to a nice 4-2 start but have played only two road games. Also, while they have beaten some teams that were pretty formidable last season (OKC & NY), we can't ignore that the Thunder were without Russell Westbrook and the Knicks were without J.R. Smith. Those two players were a big part of their teams' success. The Lakers are 3-4 out of the gate but have played four games on the road. Still, they have quality wins over the Clippers and Rockets, two teams expected to contend for the Western Conference championship, so they have proven they have the ability to beat anyone. The Lakers did not perform well at New Orleans their last time out so I'm expecting a bounce-back performance here against a team they have owned. LA has won 22 straight against Minnesota while averaging 107.8 points. Also, you want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won 45-55% of their games last season. That's because doing so has produced a 40-13 ATS result since 1996. Take the points.

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Jack Jones

Oakland Raiders +7.5

The Giants are certainly getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers this week. That’s hard to believe for a 2-6 team that has been blown out by 15 or more points in four of their six losses. This line is certainly be an overreaction to the two wins that the Giants have picked up in their last two games. A closer look at those two games shows that they were far less impressive than they appear.

New York’s win over Minnesota was simply given to them. The Vikings were starting quarterback Josh Freeman for the first time on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, and the stage was clearly too big for him. He was absolutely terrible, time after time overthrowing wide open receivers. The Giants only managed 257 total yards in that game.

Then, against Philadelphia, Michael Vick started the game and got hurt. The Eagles have clearly been much better with Nick Foles under center, and they have lost 10 straight home games, so it’s not like that was a very good win for the Giants. They'll get a much stiffer test from the Oakland Raiders this week.

When you look at the numbers, it appears this is a very evenly-matched game. Oakland has a slight edge on offense, ranking 14th in the league at 345.5 yards per game, while the Giants are 22nd at 327.7 yards per game. New York has a slight edge on the other side of the ball, ranking 14th in total defense at 344.5 yards per game, while the Raiders are 18th at 356.7 yards per game. Yet, oddsmakers are suggesting that the Giants are at least four points better than Oakland on a neutral field with this 7.5-point spread. I'm not buying it.

The Raiders are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a S.U. loss. Better yet, they are a perfect 5-0 against the number in their last five games following an ATS loss. The Giants are 18-40-2 against the spread in their last 60 November games, including 1-8 against the number in their last nine games in Week 10. They have a tendency to fall off in the second half of the year. This team still has a done of flaws, and they haven't magically turned it around despite winning their last two games. Bet the Raiders Sunday.

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Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons    
Play: Seattle Seahawks -3½

Seattle has escaped the last 2 weeks in wins over Tampa and St. Louis despite some lethargic play. This will not be the case here today as they can bury the Falcons and avenge last years playoff loss, a 30-28 loss here vs an Atlanta team that is a shell of what it was last season. Were Sure Pro Bowls Tight end Tony Gonzalez is thrilled he came back to chase the Super bowl one last time. Ok now on to the indicators. Atlanta is 1-20 straight up and 4-17 to the spread as a home dog from + 3.5 to +7 and 2-9 ats vs winning teams. Even worse is their 0-15 spread ledger at +3.5 or more off back to back road games. For the system we want to play against home dogs that were beat by the spread by 41+ points in their last 5 game as these teams have failed to cover 35 of 45 times With Seattle having revenge we will back them here today.

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Jim Feist

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks
Pick: San Antonio Spurs

The NY Knicks finally got a win this season with a road victory over Charlotte, 101-91. The Knicks are now just 1-4 SU this season. The good news is that the Knicks get J.R. Smith back. Smith, last year's NBA sixth-man, has missed the club's first five games this season. Smith won't play the entire contest, but should get close to 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the Spurs have won five of their first six games. And, they have done this with a struggling Manu Ginobili. Ginobili has hit on just eight of 31 from the field so far this season. I expect this NY club to be pretty good this season, just not this early. The Spurs are the much better club at this early mark of the season and I'm sticking with them here on Sunday morning.

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Bruce Marshall

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tennessee Titans

Any takers for Jacksonville? Maybe a few Navy SEALs are brave enough to accept the dare, but Jags an even harder sell now that key WR Justin Blackmon suspended again, and our cover story highlights the depths to which winless Jax has plunged, including loss margin of whopping 21 ppg! Unlikely Jags catch Tennessee flat, especially as Mike Munchak reminds his troops that they were the last team to lose SU vs. Jax. Titans can get above .500 with win, and return to active duty of Shonn Greene gives Jake Locker a dynamite 1-2 RB punch (CJ2K also 150 YR last week vs. Rams).

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Andy Iskoe

NY Giants -7

After playing better than expected early this season Oakland may have been exposed last week, especially on defense. QB Pryor and RB McFadden were banged up with Pryor more likely to play this week. The Giants were 0-6 but did win their last two games prior to their Bye. At 2-6 they still have life in the weak NFC East and have been known to be a strong second half of the season team when they've struggled early. The Raiders have had major problems when traveling to the east coast with multiple double digit losses just in the past two seasons. The Giants are the more talented team with an edge at QB. After allowing at least 27 points in each of its first 6 games the Giants held their last two foes, Minnesota and Philadelphia, to just 7 points each, signaling the start of improved play by the defense. The season to date stats are yet to reflect the reversal of fortunes of both teams so Oakland might appear attractive based on the pure stats. But the situation, current form and historical tendencies all favor the hosts to gain a solid victory.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Jacksonville +13 over TENNESSEE

Man, is it tough to pull the trigger on the Jaguars. Jacksonville has not even been remotely competitive. It is always a bad sign when the points allowed are three times bigger than the points for. The Jags have lost by 14 or more points in all but one game and this week in Tennessee, most believe it is Christmas. To make matters worse, even on their bye the Jags lost their best receiver. Justin Blackmon was suspended "indefinitely" but can file for reinstatement next season. That just serves to strip a talent-starved team of their best player and now one really has to wonder how the Jags will score points. That said, we’re not here to make a case for the Jags. Our mission remains focused on finding value and as bad as the Jags are, spotting nearly two converted touchdowns with Tennessee in this unfavorable situation is bad strategy.

You can almost be assured that teams under-prepare for the Jaguars. When a team is in the middle of a playoff run, even if the odds are long against them, players take the field knowing that, when the season is over, they’re going to need surgery to repair injuries. They play through excruciating pain for the good of the team and as we approach mid-November and the stretch run, the Titans are very likely to ease up in this extremely winnable game. The number is always inflated against the Jags because nobody wants to bet on them. Moreover, the Titans have a huge game up next week in a showdown with the first place Colts. That game against Indy is on Thursday night and it is highly, highly unlikely that the Titans will have much focus on this game. The Titans focus will be on staying healthy and getting this week over and done with as quickly as possible. The Titans lethargic passing leaves this unit with marginal value each week and absolutely no value as a big favorite in a bad situational spot.


INDIANAPOLIS -8 over St. Louis

No question Indianapolis was fortunate to win that game last week in Houston. At one point it didn’t seem possible, as they were flat as can be after defeating the Broncos in their previous game before heading to their bye week. Yet somehow the Colts won and covered and anyone that wagered on them last week has to feel like they received a gift. We don’t see another flat performance here. The second half of the season is upon us and this is typically when good teams whack bad teams when said good team is at home. The Colts are 6-2 and will play its easiest opponent of the season. The Colts have already defeated San Fran, Denver and Seattle and should have no trouble whatsoever putting away this dumpster fire guest early.

The Rams have dropped three in a row to Tennessee, Seattle and Carolina with the former two played in St. Louis. On the road in Carolina, the Rams lost by 15 and that was with Sam Bradford at QB. Kellen Clemens is two games into his role as the starting quarterback and has just one touchdown and three turnovers to show for it. And those were both home games. Clemens now gets his first road game of his NFL career and it’s doesn’t figure to end well. Clemens has very little talent around him and unless Zac Stacy goes nuts here, the Rams are likely to be blown away, just like they were in Dallas, in Carolina and at home to the 49ers. When a team gets blown out four times in eight games with a decent starting QB it says all we need to know about them. Now their backup, who isn’t good, is about to experience his first blowout and the arrow won’t be pointing in his direction.


GREEN BAY +105 over Philadelphia

Things change quickly in the NFL. The 4-5 Eagles remain one game out of first in the NFC East thanks to Nick Foles apparently planting his flag and announcing all of Oakland belongs to him now. Aaron Rodgers goes down, Philly blows out Oakland and the result is that the Eagles are favored at Lambeau? Did we all forget what a train wreck Philly has been all season long? Do we not remember an almost identical scenario in the second week of the season after the Eagles unveiled their new look offense in prime time to open the year? In case you forgot, Philly was a 7½-point choice in Week 2 over the Chargers and lost outright. Philadelphia’s four wins occurred against Washington, N.Y. Giants, Tampa and Oakland. None of those teams are going to the playoffs and combined have posted eight wins against 25 losses.

Seneca Wallace came in off the bench and didn’t look particularly sharp against the Bears on Monday night.  However, he hadn’t played in a long time and he was caught totally off guard by having to enter the game cold as ice. Wallace will now have the luxury of taking first team reps all week and being a lot more prepared. The Eagles have one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL and rank dead last against wide receivers. The Eagles are also weak against the run. When a big name player goes down, often the team rallies and rises to the occasion. This is also a huge coaching mismatch, as Philly Chip has not come close to defeating a team above .500 and will now play their fifth road game in the past seven weeks. This line is a gross overreaction to last week’s results and the fact that the Eagles are favored in Green Bay is actually bordering on preposterous.

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DAVE COKIN

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS ATLANTA FALCONS
PLAY: ATLANTA FALCONS

One team is 8-1, the other is 2-6. The 8-1 team will be hoping to get at least a small measure of revenge for a very narrow loss in last year’s playoffs. The 2-6 team is beat up in a big way, and following a nice run as a contender, their roof has caved in this season.

The two teams being referred to are the Seahawks and the Falcons. Seattle is motoring along to a second straight post-season berth and they have a legit chance at being the home team throughout the NFC playoffs. The Falcons are on playoff life support and are coming home off two decisive road losses that basically sealed their fate for the 2013 campaign.

That being the case, it’s not too easy to make a compelling case for Atlanta at this juncture. But I’m not of the belief that the Falcons are suddenly going to just start mailing it in because things are going badly. That just doesn’t happen very often in the NFL, and I’m not really worried about the possibility here.

Instead, the Falcons might actually be ripe for the taking today. The best time to grab points with a team is occasionally when it looks like the worst time. That’s the scenario here with the Falcons off their two most lopsided losses all year. But this team is still .500 at home, and are not that far from being 4-0 at home. In other words, at least at the Georgia Dome, these guys have yet to descend into pushover status.

At the same time, things are not all peaches and cream for the Seahawks despite tat gaudy record. Their offensive line is really struggling and Seattle was really fortunate to escape with wins the last two weeks against the lowly Bucs and Rams. This is not a team that’s displaying the form I want to see when considering laying a spot on the road.

I see today’s duel as one that could end up going either way. Seattle is unquestionably the better team, but they’re in shaky form. Atlanta holds some value off the two no doubt about losses at Carolina and Arizona. I thought the early week line on this game was substantially higher than it ought to be and even at the current price, it’s not horrible. Therefore I’ll go ahead and take the available points with the Falcons to at least get this to the wire.

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Carlos Salazar


Broncos vs Chargers
Play: Over 57.5

Can you say offense. Carlos says this one will be a high scoring affair with lots of big plays. If you can bet the first half over as well. Manning and company will be playing hard for their fallen coach. While San Diego gave up over 500 yards last week to the Redskins. Play the over with confidence.

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Bryan Leonard

San Antonio at New York
Play: San Antonio

The Spurs have dominated the Knicks over the years and they come into the Big Apple rested after having yesterday off after another satisfying victory.  The only teams the Knicks have beaten this year are Milwaukee and Charlotte, two clubs expected to struggle. With a banged up front court we see Tony Parker doing his magic in the paint and the Spurs winning going away.

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Advantage Sports

Cincinnati Bengals  vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Take Baltimore to get themselves back in the AFC North race today. Joe Flacco's passer rating is almost 100 at home but less than 65 away. With some major defensive injuries for the Bengals, the Ravens need to beat them today to essentially save the season and not drop further behind Cincy. The biggest game so far this year for Baltimore.

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Alex Smith Sports

Oakland Raiders  vs New York Giants
Pick: New York Giants

The Oakland Raiders head out east for their first road game in a month to do battle with the NY Giants. Oakland playing a early game in the eastern time zone against a New York squad who has a much needed bye on deck and, shockingly aren't drowning in the NFC playoff race just yet. I like the G-Men to beat Oakland in this spot, covering the TD.

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Harry Bondi

Seattle / Atlanta Under 45

Atlanta's offense is a mess. The Falcons have lost two in row and have failed to score more than 13 points since the loss of star wide receiver Julio Jones. Don't expect the ineptitude of this unit to change since Seattle comes in with one of the best defenses in the league, including the fourth best red zone efficiency on defense in the NFL. The Seahawks offense has also been sluggish over the last few weeks and Atlanta is 5-10 to the under in its last 15 games as an underdog. Go under.

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Chad Mathews

Broncos / Chargers Over 57.5

The Denver Broncos head into Qualcomm stadium to take on Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers. The Broncos are averaging a league best 42.9 points per game and the Chargers are averaging 24 points per game and have the home field this weekend as well where they are averaging scoring more points than on the road. The Chargers defense will have no way to shut down Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense. Both of these teams love to air out the football with the Broncos leading the NFL with an average of 359 passing yards per game and the Chargers sit at 4th in the league with 300 passing yards per game. Expect both Rivers and Manning to go to the air this weekend and tack on the points. Take the OVER 57.5 points here.

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Charlie Scott

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Seattle Seahawks -4

I don't understand the money coming on Atlanta, I was able to get -4 and bet a little. I know the whole thing about a West Coast Fav playing early in the East. However, in my defense Atlanta is a mash unit made up of waiver Free Agents starting this is NOT the Falcon Team we're used to seeing. Seahawks should physically dominate both lines of scrimmage and force Atl QB Ryan into many bad decision.


Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Detroit Lions +1

I know the Lions play stupid undisciplined Football ! However the schedule situation sets up nice for the Lions. Lions off major comeback vs Cowboys and then bye week, while the Bears come off beating arch rival Green Bay on Monday night. The Bears are banged up and struggle to defend Pass. If Cutler does as expected and starts, I don't expect him to be sharp facing Lions aggressive front 7 defense.

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Rocketman

Philadelphia @ Green Bay
Play:  Green Bay +1

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers on Sunday afternoon.  Green Bay will be without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers but once again the oddsmakers have over adjusted this line.  Seneca Wallace was absolutely terrible coming off the bench against Chicago but he has had a week to prepare.  Even without Rodgers, this Green Bay team is better than Philadelphia.  Green Bay is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS last 3 years at home.  Philadelphia defense is giving up 25.7 points per game overall this year and 28 points per game on the road this season.  Green Bay is scoring 29 points per game overall this year and 27.7 points per game at home this season.  The key in this game is that the Eagles defense stinks so even Wallace and the Packers will be able to move the ball.  We'll recommend a small play on Green Bay today!

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