Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 203-204: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 113.507; Tennessee 134.964
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 21 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 12; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-12); Under

Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.146; Green Bay 136.887
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-1 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.117; Pittsburgh 129.408
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Oakland at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 128.191; NY Giants 124.970
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 48
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+9 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: St. Louis at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.695; Indianapolis 140.488
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 14; 40
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: Seattle at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.527; Atlanta 133.747
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.022; Baltimore 133.646
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Detroit at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.426; Chicago 132.477
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Under

Game 219-220: Carolina at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 134.650; San Francisco 143.796
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6); Over

Game 221-222: Houston at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 130.719; Arizona 129.841
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 36
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1); Under

Game 223-224: Denver at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.602; San Diego 136.227
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 58
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); Over

Game 225-226: Dallas at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.166; New Orleans 143.570
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 227-228: Miami at Tampa Bay (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.625; Tampa Bay 125.479
Dunkel Line: Miami by 6; 37
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

San Antonio at New York
The 2-3 Knicks host a Spurs team that is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against teams with a losing SU record. San Antonio is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-2 1/2)

Game 501-502: San Antonio at New York (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.262; New York 119.068
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-2 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Washington at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.084; Oklahoma City 123.884
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: New Orleans at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.810; Phoenix 119.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+2); Over

Game 507-508: Minnesota at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.780; LA Lakers 114.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3 1/2); Under

CFL

Montreal at Hamilton
The Alouettes look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Montreal is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3 1/2)

Game 291-292: Montreal at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 114.859; Hamilton 115.283
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3 1/2); Over

Game 293-294: BC at Saskatchewan (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 109.201; Saskatchewan 121.206
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 12; 48
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-4 1/2); Under

NHL

Vancouver at Anaheim
The Ducks look to follow up their 6-2 win over Buffalo on Friday and build on their 9-1 record in their last 10 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Anaheim is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165)

Game 1-2: NY Islanders at Montreal (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 9.916; Montreal 11.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-185); Under

Game 3-4: Florida at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.649; NY Rangers 12.036
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-230); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-230); Over

Game 5-6: Nashville at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.005; New Jersey 10.724
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+100); Over

Game 7-8: Edmonton at Chicago (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 9.550; Chicago 12.579
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-300); Under

Game 9-10: Washington at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.207; Colorado 12.772
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-180); Under

Game 11-12: San Jose at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.196; Winnipeg 11.898
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+150); Over

Game 13-14: Vancouver at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.217; Anaheim 12.614
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165); Under

NCAAB

Massachusetts vs. Boston College
The Eagles look to bounce back from their 82-78 loss to Providence in the opener and take advantage of a UMass team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Boston College is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3)

Game 509-510: Massachusetts vs. Boston College (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 58.414; Boston College 64.063
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3)

Game 511-512: NC-Wilmington at Iowa State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 48.032; Iowa State 64.864
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 17
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 20
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+20)

Game 517-518: Elon at Marist (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 49.053; Marist 54.191
Dunkel Line: Marist by 5
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Marist

Game 519-520: NE-Omaha at Iowa (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 45.359; Iowa 70.582
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 25
Vegas Line: Iowa by 28 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NE-Omaha (+28 1/2)

Game 521-522: Jacksonville State at Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 51.423; Illinois 65.765
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 17
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (+17)

Game 523-524: Tennessee-Martin at Colorado (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 37.691; Colorado 66.513
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 29
Vegas Line: Colorado by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-23 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Carlo Campanella

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers    
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +2

In my recent article and Podcast I discuss that NFL teams starting a back-up QB are currently 14-16 (47%) ATS this season. This Sunday we have the "battle of the back-ups" as the Eagles start second stringer QB Nick Foles heading to Green Bay, who will start career back-up QB, Seneca Wallace. QB Wallace wasn't bad off the bench when losing to the Bears on Monday Night Football, 27-20, completing 11 of 19 passes for 114 yards. However, after playing on Monday night, Wallace will have a short week to prepare for the Eagles and he'll have to do it with a cast of back-up Wide Receivers since WRs Kevin Dorsey, Randall Cobb and (TE) Jermicheal Finley are all injured and will not play this Sunday. We'll back the "other" back-up, Eagle's QB Nick Foles, as he was incredible during last Sunday's 49-20 victory in Oakland while completing 20 of 28 passes for 406 yards and 7 TD passes! We'll take the points with the hot hand of QB Foles against an aging veteran that won't have time to gel with his cast of back-up wideouts on a short week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Nick Parsons

Jaguars vs. Titans
Play: Under 41

Divisional battles are always the toughest and almost always mean more to the home side. Jacksonville has long been looking towards and planning for next season, but at 4-4 and second in the division behind the 6-2 Colts, Tennessee still has something to play for this year.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect points to have been at a premium.

The Jaguars

Jacksonville is 0-8 and comes out of its bye after a 42-10 destruction at the hands of the 49ers in London.

While Jacksonville has seen the total fly above the posted number in three of four on the road this season, I think it's important to note that it's seen it stay below the total in ten of its last 13 vs. divisional opponents.

The Titans

Tennessee is coming off a hard-fought 28-21 win over the Rams last week.

With a rematch at home vs. the Colts next week and then three straight road games, controlling this game vs. lowly Jacksonville becomes paramount. Tennessee can ill afford a lapse in concentration and as such, I fully expect it to make running the ball a priority today.

Note that Tennessee has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of its last ten vs. teams with losing records and in eight of its last 14 when playing the role of favorite.

The Bottom Line

Three of these teams last five in the series have gone "under" the number and I believe that all of the different factors and situations once again point to a lower-scoring affair.

Consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Art Aronson

Seahawks vs. Falcons
Play: Under 45

The Atlanta Falcons sit at 2-6 SU and ATS after a 10-34 loss at Carolina. Matt Ryan completed 20 of 27 passes for 219 yards, one TD and three INTs in the loss. Tony Gonzalez had six receptions for 81 yards and a TD in the loss. The Falcons rolled up just 219 yards of offense. The Seattle Seahawks sit at 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS after a 27-24 OT loss at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Russell Wilson completed 19 of 26 passes for 217 yards, two TDs and two INTs in the win. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 125 yards as the Seahawks had to crawl back into this game after falling behind early. The Falcons have been ravaged by injuries on the both sides of the ball and especially on offense. Atlanta has lost two in row and failed to score more than 13 points in each game since the loss of star WR Julio Jones. Note that the lower number has fallen in both those games without Jones. Now the team heads to Seattle, home of one of the toughest defenses in the league. Seattle meanwhile, not only is looking to bounce back after two mediocre wins, but also has also has revenge written on its’ minds after losing to the Falcons in the playoffs last season. While there is always risk of the Seahawks running up the score, Seattle’s offense has just not looked that crisp without WR Sidney Rice. Take a close look at the “under.”

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacksonville vs. TennesseeFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: JacksonvilleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jaguars are never really an 'attractive take,' but then again neither was Tampa Bay last week, who I cashed in this spot in a near outright upset of Seattle (Bucs covered wire-to-wire!).  Coming out of their bye week, I expect Jacksonville to deliver a similar performance this week....
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Tennessee is 4-4 and being that they're favored heavily here, that definitely makes them a factor in the wide open AFC Wild Card chase. You have to figure both Denver and Kansas City are making the playoffs out of the West, but that still leaves one WC spot open, and it's anybody's guess at this point.  Still though, the Titans probably do not deserve to be in this price range, especially considering they have won only one game by double digits all season.   This is also a lookahead as the team will host Indianapolis in a big Thursday night matchup next week.  The Titans are just 3-10 ATS in division games the last three seasons and have not been favored by 10 or more points during that time (against anybody) either.
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I'm not going to sit here and attempt to make the case that Jacksonville even closely resembles a good team.  But know this; I do believe they will win a game at some point.  It may not be here, but note that road underdogs on a losing streak of 7+ games have covered over 67% of the time since 1983!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

River City Sharps

Baltimore Ravens +2

The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday with their season pretty much on the line. If they lose any more ground to Cinci, any slim hopes they have for the playoffs are gone. With their backs against the wall, at home as an underdog, we expect Baltimore to come out and give maximum effort. They have lost their last 3 games by a total of 9 points. This has been a subpar year so far, and a win here would go far to start to right the ship. Cincinnati comes off an OT loss against Miami and is traveling for the 2nd week in a row, although they played on Thursday and get the extra rest, but have arch rival Cleveland on deck. They have lost in their 3 previous trips to Baltimore and come into this game banged up and without their best D lineman Geno Atkins and best CB Leon Hall. If the Ravens can pressure Dalton, he will turn the ball over as witnessed last week when he threw 3 Picks. He now has 10 on the season and is much better at home than on the road. The Ravens need to get their running game going with Rice and control the clock, and take some pressure off Flacco. We feel the Ravens need this game and will come to play.

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Randall The HandleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Eagles (4-5) at Packers (5-3)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes, Aaron Rodgers will be sorely missed after injuring his collarbone last week against the Bears. And yes, Nick Foles threw for a record-tying seven touchdowns last week. But to have this number drop below a field goal is a severe overreaction. Seneca Wallace will take over for the Packers. It’s not like this is his first rodeo. He certainly has a lot more NFL starts than Foles. Wallace was unexpectedly called to duty after Rodgers went down early in Monday’s game. While the Pack had their chances, the veteran QB couldn’t muster up enough to get them a home win. Now he’ll have worked with the coaching staff all week, taking first team reps and having more experience under head coach Mike McCarthy. The Eagles have first-year coach Chip Kelly heading to Lambeau off a road win. Lambeau isn’t Oakland. In fact, much is made of Philly’s road record, but the only time the Eagles faced a winning team, they were smoked 52-20 in Denver. Let’s not forget that Philadelphia has given up the most yardage in the NFL this season, averaging a league-high 419 yards per game. A Packers win gets us a cover and we’ll expect nothing less. TAKING: PACKERS –1
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Cowboys (5-4) at Saints (6-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys have just one road win this season and that took place in Philadelphia against a team that has lost 10 straight on its own turf. That won’t bode well when travelling to take on one of the toughest hosts in the land, with the Saints having covered 16 of their past 17 here, including all four contests this season. Drew Brees and his mates will be in a foul mood after being upset by the Jets in New Jersey. Dallas’ defence does not compare to that of the Jets, and it didn’t help the Saints that RB Darren Sproles missed that game with concussion issues, but appears to be cleared for this one. Without the shifty Sproles, New Orleans’ top rusher was Pierre Thomas with 24 yards. Dallas’ defence has demonstrated little ability to stop quality offences, having given up 112 combined points to the Chargers, Broncos and Lions. To make matters worse, the Cowboys’ offence will be facing ex-defensive coordinator Rob Ryan’s defence after Ryan was unhappily dismissed last year. Dallas is an ailing club and one that remains dysfunctional. It should all be on display for this Sunday nighter. TAKING: SAINTS –6½
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Broncos (7-1) at Chargers (4-4)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Colts defeated the Broncos. The Chargers defeated the Colts. Therefore, the Chargers should beat the Broncos. We only wish it was that easy. That said, don’t be surprised to see this one stay close. San Diego is a much improved team. QB Philip Rivers is among the leaders in many passing categories and that could spell trouble for a Denver defence that ranks 30th against the pass while allowing an alarming 27 points per game. It doesn’t hurt, either, that San Diego coach Mike McCoy was Denver’s offensive coordinator last year, becoming very familiar with Peyton Manning’s tendencies. McCoy has instilled a new attitude in San Diego. His guys have bounced back following a loss with a perfect 3-0 mark. Now at home where they’ve lost just once, the Bolts will face a Denver team that could be slightly out of synch as coach John Fox was hospitalized this week and will miss games. The Broncos also have a huge date with the undefeated Chiefs next week. Nice spot to be taking a full touchdown. TAKING: CHARGERS +7
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Jaguars (0-8) at Titans (4-4)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Does it concern us that the only spread the Jaguars have covered this season was when taking a colossal 27 points from the Broncos? Are we worried that Jacksonville hasn’t won a game this year and that it just had its best playmaker suspended indefinitely? Do we care that the Jags have scored a measly 86 points in eight games? The answer is yes, yes and yes. But no matter how poor this visiting team may be, we are not prepared to spot double digits with a Tennessee team that is not exactly adept at winning games. The Titans have a limited offence, as 63 of their 173 scored can be attributed to takeaways. The Jags are a tough sell, but with a week of rest and the familiarity factor, we’ll look for them to stay within range. TAKING: JAGUARS +12
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Bills (3-6) at Steelers (2-6)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It appears that Buffalo will have rookie QB EJ Manuel back at the helm after missing some time with a knee injury. Manuel is still in the learning stages, but he’s an upgrade over undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel, who was forced to start last week’s home contest to the undefeated Chiefs. The Steelers may have the better quarterback for this matchup, but that’s where it ends. Buffalo has superior talent at the skill positions and other important spots. Pittsburgh cannot be trusted as a favourite. The once-proud franchise has lost 11 of its past 15 games and not much hope is in sight. It’s been repeated ad nauseam, but until the offensive line improves, expect the Steelers to continue to struggle. TAKING: BILLS +3
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Raiders (3-5) at Giants (2-6)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Teams have a propensity to bounce back from embarrassing losses (Jaguars not included) and after being humiliated by the Eagles last week, we expect the scrappy Raiders to come out swinging here. While Oakland has its fair share of issues, the Giants have been a comedy act for most of the year. Perhaps a correction is forthcoming, but with a backfield that consists of two guys who were on the street a month ago and a pass rush that couldn’t crack an egg, it’s difficult to give away a converted touchdown. The Giants may also have a false sense of progressing after winning a pair before their bye, but that was against the Vikings in Josh Freeman’s debut debacle, followed by a win over an Eagles team with rookie Matt Barkley filling in for an injured Michael Vick. TAKING: RAIDERS +7
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Rams (3-6) at Colts (6-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This will be Indianapolis’ only home game for more than a month and you can bet that they’ll want to leave town on a high note. A punchless Rams team is the perfect guest to prep up for the road swing. St. Louis has a guy or two who can play defence, but after that, there isn’t much on Jeff Fisher’s squad. Andrew Luck is adapting to life without Reggie Wayne as young Luck threw three TD passes to WR T.Y. Hilton in last week’s comeback win over the Texans. St. Louis is stuck with the limited abilities of Kellen Clemens at quarterback, who has thrown for just one touchdown since being handed the offence. The Rams are away after two home losses and in the midst of a three-game skid. This figures to be an unpleasant trip. TAKING: COLTS –9½
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Seahawks (8-1) at Falcons (2-6)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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As if the Falcons needed an opponent to be more motivated than usual. But such is the case after Atlanta knocked the Seahawks out of last year’s playoffs in an exciting 30-28 post-season contest. Things haven’t gone very well since then for this host and it has been a while since we’ve seen a team as demoralized as this one. The Seahawks haven’t looked so hot lately themselves, barely getting by the Rams and Bucs. But with Atlanta’s inability to run or pass, we’re not sure how these home birds will deny the visiting fowl. The Falcons’ defence has suffered as well, ranking 26th in points allowed and 21st in total yards allowed per game. Combine all of that with a toothless pass rush and even Seattle’s struggling offence should get well here. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –6
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Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (3-5)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ravens may not be winning, but their previous five games have all been decided by three or less, the last two in divisional road games. Now they are back home and figure to have their hair on fire as this is likely their last chance to remain in contention in the AFC North. Knowing that they will face Cincinnati in the final weekend, Baltimore will not concede anything here. The Ravens clobbered the Bengals on this field last year to the tune of 44-13 as a seven-point choice. While it is human nature to react to Baltimore’s recent doldrums, this swing is too dramatic for our liking. The Bengals keep losing key players and QB Andy Dalton takes a step back each time he seems to be moving forward, as displayed in the loss to Miami. TAKINGS: RAVENS +1½
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Lions (5-3) at Bears (5-3)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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At the time of this writing, it was uncertain who was going to quarterback the Bears as Jay Cutler’s status remained unclear. If it is Cutler, the Bears will be slightly favoured. If it’s Josh McCown, Detroit will be the small chalk. In either case, we’ll side with the hometown squad as Chicago is back on its own field after a couple of road games. The Lions are not as ferocious on a grass field. While Detroit managed to score a 40-32 triumph in an earlier meeting, that win was aided by Chicago’s three interceptions and a lost fumble. If it’s not Cutler, McCown is one of the better backup QBs in the league, as demonstrated in a win over the Packers on Monday night, despite Aaron Rodgers’ absence. TAKING: BEARS +2½
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Panthers (5-3) at 49ers (6-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two hot clubs, but only one can cover. With these two mirroring each other in so many ways, taking any points offered here seems to be the prudent move. Last year, San Fran QB Colin Kaepernick took the football world by storm. But a year later, either due to injuries to his receiving corps or simply by the sophomore jinx, Colin K’s club ranks dead last in passing yards per game (189). Quietly, this Panthers defence is one the best stop units in the NFL, ranking higher than the 49ers’ in almost every key category and that certainly lends itself to accepting any points. Carolina’s offence has come to life recently, having scored 30 points or more in four straight. Neither team should get too far away in this one. TAKING: PANTHERS +6
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Texans (2-6) at Cardinals (4-4)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oddsmakers continually underprice the Cardinals despite their stellar home numbers and while it may be puzzling, our pocketbooks aren’t complaining. Let’s go back to this well once again as the Texans arrive here after a demoralizing loss on a national stage to the division-leading Colts. Houston not only blew a big lead in that one, but also lost its head coach as Gary Kubiak collapsed on the field, later diagnosed with a minor stroke. It’s been that kind of a season for the Texans. The Cardinals can surely sympathize with the situation, but they won’t show any mercy as Arizona is in the playoff hunt and could bolster its chances by knocking off this wounded intruder. Houston has now lost six straight and things are unlikely to get better in this difficult desert setting. TAKING: ARIZONA –2½
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Dolphins (4-4) at Buccaneers (0-8)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami should be proud as it is the only one of three Florida-based teams with a win this season. However, pride is not exactly a buzz word around the Dolphins this past week with the unusual events that took place pertaining to bullying and a subsequent suspension. While this certainly has become a distraction, word is that coach Joe Philbin has maintained order during practice this week and that should be good enough to dispose of this defective opponent. The Bucs somehow gave the Seahawks a scare last week in Seattle and that may have shortened this price, combined with the shenanigans in Miami. But Tampa still lacks an aerial attack and Miami’s pass rush should be menacing to young Mike Glennon. TAKING: DOLPHINS –2½

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Wunderdog

Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Pick: Buffalo +3

Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone off a cliff - fast. However, they still seem to be forgiven by the oddsmakers, who seem to want to carry their reputation forward despite the 2-6 record at the halfway mark of the season. From the 2007-08 season through the 2011-12 season, Pittsburgh's defense allowed an opponent to score 30 or more points just twice. Last year we saw the hint of change as three teams reached the 30-point mark against them. This year at just halfway into the season, the Steel Curtain has allowed 30 or more points three times, capped by the 55 points they allowed New England last week. Buffalo should be able to exploit the once rugged front seven of the Steelers' defense, which has allowed 131.2 yards per game (second worst in the entire NFL). The Bills rank 7th in the league at 145.8 yards per contest and EJ Manuel is expected back here which will only help things. Meanwhile, Pitt's offense is simply bad and not making strides. The Bills are 6-1 ATS following a loss. The Steelers are just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 within the conference. Take the Bills.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Mike O'ConnorFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia (+1.5) 24 GREEN BAY 23FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Eagles offense looked unstoppable as they rolled up 544 yards at 9.9 yppl in beating the Raiders last week in Oakland 49-20. The strong performance followed two poor games where they had scored just 10 points combined in consecutive divisional losses. A pretty clear example of the fact that in the NFL the unexpected is generally what you can expect. They look to keep the momentum going this week and capitalize on a Green Bay team that lost QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in their Monday night loss at home to the Bears. Season numbers on the Eagles are impressive offensively (6.31 yppl gained against teams that allow 5.66 yppl) with a balanced run/pass mix. Their well-documented problem has been on defense (allowing 5.72 yppl to teams that gain 5.54 yppl). They are fortunate to face backup QB Seneca Wallace this week who has a career 6-15 record and could only produce 114 yards on 19 attempts against the Bears. I expect him to improve with a week of practice and a scheme that will be adapted to fit his abilities. As I have been saying all year, this Green Bay team is different in that they now have a very good rushing attack (150 yards at 5.3 ypr) and that will provide Wallace the stability to be able to perform within the framework of the offense. I also expect the rest of the team to rally around Wallace and they also look to be getting Clay Matthews back in some role this week. I don’t have any situations in play here and my math model (adjusted for the loss of Aaron Rodgers) is Philly -.6 so I will lean with the Eagles.
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Oakland (+7.5) 20 NY GIANTS 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders come off of a disappointing 20-49 home loss to the Eagles where they allowed Nick Foles to throw for and NFL record tying 7 touchdown passes while they scored 49 points on just 55 action plays. This just a week after allowing the Steelers just 18 points and 276 yards at 4.0 yppl. Cumulative season to date defensive stats now show the Raiders to be about average defensively (5.7 dyppl to teams that gain 5.7 yppl) and below average offensively due to a poor passing game (5.34 yppl to teams that allow 5.82 yppl). They now travel cross country to take on the Giants in a 10:00AM start time game as New York comes off their bye. Prior to the break the Giants had won two in a row to remain just 2.5 games back from division leading Dallas. The Giants were a bit lucky in those two wins however, as they faced the Vikings with Josh Freeman at QB after just a few practices with the team (who has not seen the field since) and then the following week with Foles out, Vick was injured in the second quarter and the Eagles ended up playing with Matt Barkley (who is not ready for primetime) for the majority of the game. Overall, the Giants have been below average offensively (5.21 yppl against teams that allow 5.67 yppl) and a bit better than average on defense (allowing 5.06 yppl to teams that average 5.84 yppl). This appears to be too many points to give a team that should win the rushing battle and will likely rebound with a more focused effort defensively. The Raiders qualify in a 38-10 situation and also benefit from a negative 81-165-8 situation that plays against the Giants here and as a result I like the Raiders plus the points.
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CHICAGO (-1) 32 Detroit 27FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions come into this game off of their bye and a come from behind 31-30 win at home against the Cowboys where they rolled up 632 yards at 8.0 yppl which featured an unbelievable 329 yards receiving from WR Calvin Johnson. After the Bears beat the Packers on Monday night, there is now a logjam for first place with the Lions, Packers and Bears all tied with 5-3 records so this is a huge game for both teams. Season numbers show the Lions to be a very good offensive team particularly in the passing game and below average defensively overall. The same can be said of the Bears, except with a better rush offense. Both offenses should be able to move the ball well here with good matchups across the board. Add to the equation the fact that the Bears get Jay Cutler back while still being limited on defense with still several key injuries and that adds up to a lot of points scored. As a result, I like over the Total in this game (52.5). Despite the fact that the Lions are coming off of their bye while the Bears come in on a short week I will lean the Bears way as they qualify in 649-473-40, 234-143-17 and 47-19 situations.
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Seattle (-5) 29 ATLANTA 18FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seahawks are a team that has done a nice job of holding things together with some injuries along their offensive line that has really limited what they can do offensively. After starting the season strong winning their first three games (SU and ATS) by an average score of 28.6 to 9.0, they have held on to win 5 of their last 6 by an average score of just 24.4 to 20.4, going 2-4 ATS in the process. They are also coming off of a game where they had to fight their way back from a 21-0 deficit to win in OT at home against the Bucs 27-24. They now travel cross country to face an Atlanta team that has been in a free-fall recently with numerous injuries on both sides of the ball taking their toll. Atlanta has had virtually no run game to speak of (averaging 66 yards at 3.67 ypr to teams that allow 106 yards at 4.17 ypr) and have been terrible on defense overall (allowing 366 yards at 5.93 yppl to teams that gain 335 yards at 5.20 yppl on average). With a lack of offensive weapons recently (WR’s Jones and White out) Matt Ryan has really struggled and has thrown 7 interceptions the last two games. Facing the best pass defense in the league without a run game is not a good spot to be in as Seattle looks to avenge their playoff loss here last year. Match-up analysis shows across the board advantages for the Seahawks and they also qualify in a 649-473-40 situation and benefit from a negative 164-264-16 situation (at -5 or less) that plays against the Falcons. I like the Seahawks minus the points.
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Buffalo (+3) 23 PITTSBURGH 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bills lost a tough game last week at home to the Chiefs 13-23 where they won the statistical battle (470 yards at 6.1 yppl to 213 yards 4.2 yppl for Kansas City) but were -3 in turnovers. They are a team that has clearly improved this year with a new coaching staff and schemes on both sides of the ball. The strength of their team has been their rushing offense where they are averaging 148 yards at 4.5 ypr against a schedule of teams that allow 105 yards at 4.2 ypr). RB CJ Spiller looked to have his burst back last week and after being hobbled by an ankle injury the previous couple of weeks, he appears to be back near full speed. The Steelers have been below average defending the run this season as they are allowing 132 yards at 4.42 ypr to teams that gain 117 yards at 4.35 ypr on average and that is a matchup that the Bills should be able to exploit here. Last week against the Patriots, the Steeler defense completely imploded in allowing 611 total yards at 8.7 yppl and giving up 55 points and adjusted season numbers show a team that is below average overall. It appears that the Bills will get QB EJ Manuel back this week and if he can limit his mistakes the Bills have a good chance to win this game. The Bills qualify in a 649-473-40 situation and with some matchups advantages on their side I like the Bills plus the points.
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Cincinnati (-1.5) 24 BALTIMORE 19FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati comes into this game after a 20-22 OT loss to the Dolphins in Miami where they outgained the Dolphins 466 yards at 5.1 yppl to 345 yards at 5.7 yppl but were -2 in turnover differential and lost the game on a sack in the end zone for a safety. The also lost their best defensive player in the process (DT Geno Atkins) and after losing their best player in the secondary the previous week (CB Leon Hall), this is a unit that could find itself in some trouble. The loss dropped the Bengals to 6-3 on the season and 2.5 games ahead of division rival Baltimore who they travel to face here. The Ravens will be in desperation mode as they know that this is a huge game for them to win if they have any real hopes for this season. I’m just not sure that they can get it done. They were in a great spot off their bye last week and lost to the Browns in a game that Cleveland controlled the whole way. The Ravens main problem has been a terrible rushing attack that has averaged only 72 yards at 2.86 ypr to teams that allow 107 yards at 4.02 ypr. Losing DT Atkins will hurt, but the Bengals still have capable run defenders on the defensive line and should be able to control the Ravens rush attack. However, Baltimore is a difficult venue to win in and the Bengals have not been very good on the road this year going just 2-3 so far. Cincinnati does qualify in 73-30-1 and 32-11 situations while they benefit from negative 164-264-16 and 135-217-10 situations that play against the Ravens here. My math model favors the Bengals by 4.3 points so I show some line value there as well and as a result I like the Bengals minus the short number.
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SAN DIEGO (+7) 28 Denver 34FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Broncos enter this game off of the bye and with a new interim HC in Jack Del Rio after John Fox suffered a heart attack last week while playing golf. While Fox is a very good coach, I don’t believe the change will make much of a difference on the field as the Broncos are a well-oiled machine on offense, with Payton Manning running the show. Defensively, Del Rio may be stretched a bit thin with multiple responsibilities now and a defense that has had problems with the pass this year (allowing 299 yards at 6.86 yps against teams that gain 244 yards at 6.22 yps on average). The match-up in that respect is not good as they face a red hot San Diego passing offense that has been very good (300 yards at 7.79 yps to teams that allow 253 yards at 6.65 yps). The offensive passing advantage goes both ways here as the Broncos pass offense is averaging 358 yards at 8.27 yps against teams that allow 266 yards at 6.70 yps while the Chargers pass defense is not good as they have allowed 276 yards at 7.45 yps to teams that gain 238 yards at 6.22 yps on average. An interesting subplot is HC Mike McCoy facing his old team (he was OC of the Broncos the last four years) and so he knows the Broncos well. Not sure how big a deal that is here as the Broncos also know him well and have had two weeks to prepare. This is definitely another game where a lot of points are expected and as a result I lean with the Over even at what appears to be a high number of 58. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my math model favors the Broncos by 6.0 points so I will lean with the Chargers plus the points.
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ARIZONA (-3) 25 Houston 19FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In an unusual set of circumstances last Sunday night, Texans coach Gary Kubiak collapsed and was taken to the hospital at halftime with the Texans leading 21-3. Chaos ensued, and a makeshift change to OC Rick Dennison as play-caller was made. With concern for their coach, an understandably distracted Texans team took the field in the second half and ended up losing 27-24. The Texans are now forced to move on and this week travel to the desert to play the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cardinals are coming off of their bye and a 27-13 home win versus the Falcons two weeks ago where their defense dominated a beat up Falcons team and forced Matt Ryan into 4 interceptions. The Cardinals have played very good run defense this year (allowing 89 yards at 3.61 ypr against teams that gain 111 yards at 4.21 ypr) and while the Texans have run the ball well (130 yards at 4.54 ypr to teams that allow 117 yards at 4.46 ypr) I expect them to have a hard time here. On the other side, the Cardinals found a RB in Andre Ellington who demonstrated explosive ability in the Falcons game before the bye and as he gets incorporated into their offense more I expect their run game to improve. Looking at this game a little more deeply I see a young QB in Case Keenum and a banged up RB group off an emotional Sunday night loss facing a Cardinals team that should be fully focused off their bye. Coming out of the bye with a 4-4 record Arizona is excited and optimistic about the rest of their season and I expect them to play well here. In addition, as OC and interim HC of the Colts last year, new Cards HC Bruce Arians is quite familiar with the Texans personnel and schemes as he faced them twice in 2012 and has had two weeks to plan and prepare. I like the Cardinals minus the small number.
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NEW ORLEANS (-6) 31 Dallas 20FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas is an interesting team in that they show offensive firepower on occasion and have made plays when they have needed them and so they give the perception of a dangerous team. I’m not sure that is the case with a statistical profile that shows a team with a bad rushing attack, an average passing game and a defense that is poor across the board. Defensively they have allowed 420 yards at 6.04 yppl to teams that gain 376 yards at 5.73 yppl and overall this season they are being outgained by an average of -77 yards per game. Last week they made some plays late to beat a bad Vikings team that destroyed them in the run game (36 yards at 4.0 ypr to 168 yards at 5.8 ypr). They now travel to face a Saints team that is very good at home and is coming off a loss so they will be focused to play well here. This year the Saints are 4-0 SU and ATS at home while the Cowboys are 1-3 on the road and are looking forward to their bye next week. The Saints were not in a good spot last week against the Jets and lost 20-26 with a -2 turnover differential. As always, New Orleans has a strong passing offense (314 yards at 7.42 yps against teams that allow 248 yards at 6.29 yps) and it looks like they will get key weapons WR Marques Colston and RB Darren Sproles back this week as well. From a defensive match-up perspective new DC Rob Ryan will be facing the team that fired him last year and whose personnel he knows from first-hand experience and that may offer some additional minor benefit to the Saints. My math model favors New Orleans here by 10.7 points so there appears to be some value and in combination with the good spot I like the Saints minus the points.
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TAMPA BAY (+2.5) 22 Miami 19FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins have had a rough week or so with the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin situation creating a major distraction for a team that had lost their last four games before beating the Bengals at home last Thursday night 22-20. Losing two starting offensive linemen certainly won’t help. QB Ryan Tannehill has not shown good pocket awareness and I expect the Bucs will test the Miami offensive line with pressure. Adjusted season numbers show that the Dolphins are a just below average team overall from the line of scrimmage and shouldn’t be laying points here on the road. The Bucs are a team that is better than their 0-8 record and have demonstrated a better passing offense since QB Mike Glennon replaced Josh Freeman. Glennon started off a little shaky but has improved recently with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last 3 games. Last week they nearly pulled off the upset of the Seahawks in Seattle, losing in OT 27-24 after holding a 21-0 lead. The Bucs should be prepared to play well here in a home Monday night contest and my numbers tell me that these teams are not far apart. My math model favors the Bucs by -.2 and Tampa Bay also qualifies in the same 124-88-8 situation that won for us last week. I like the Bucs plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Steve Merril

St Louis Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts    
Play: St Louis Rams +10

St. Louis is on a 3-game losing streak with their last two losses coming at home. The Rams benefit from this game being on the road as it will allow them to escape the negative criticism from the media and fans in their city. St. Louis is just 1-3 on the road but they’ve played a brutal away schedule with games at Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Carolina. Despite the Colts having a better record than all four of those teams, St. Louis is actually taking a big step down in class and talent in this game. Kellen Clemens has started under center for the last two games and the Rams have been quite competitive. They lost 14-9 to Seattle and last week lost 28-21 to Tennessee. A repeat of those two performances will give St. Louis an easy pointspread cover in this game. The St. Louis defense is finally playing up to expectations as they’ve been stout in their last two games. The Rams allowed a total of 498 yards to the Seahawks and Titans while collecting 11 sacks in those two games. Their ability tot get pressure on Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck will be important in this game, especially since Luck’s go-to receiver Reggie Wayne is out with injury.

Indianapolis comes in off a miracle win and ATS cover last week in Houston. The Colts trailed 24-6 late into the third quarter before rallying for a 27-24 win. The Colts were extremely fortunate to win that game, and it was their second consecutive national TV win as they beat the Broncos 39-33 in their previous game. Indianapolis doesn’t have a strong enough defense to be laying more than a touchdown to any team, even the Rams. The Colts are allowing opponents 5.7 yards per play which ranks them #24 in the NFL. They are also giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt which ranks them #23 in the league. Indianapolis has allowed 24 points or more in three of their last four games; they allowed 17 points or less in three of their first four games this season. Those numbers indicate that the Colts’ defense is in decline. In 25 games with Andrew Luck at quarterback, Indianapolis has been more than a 3-point favorite just four times. The Colts are 4-0 SU in those games but three of those four wins came by 4, 7, and 4 points. That means they are just 1-3 ATS based on the posted pointspread so we’ll take the generous points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Matt Fargo

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens    
Play: Baltimore Ravens +2½

The initial reaction is to like Cincinnati in this game as it has the better record, is coming off a loss and has had extra time to get ready for this game. The Bengals are favored here by roughly the same amount they were favored by in Miami so the linesmakers are putting the Dolphins and Ravens on an even plane and that is not the case. Cincinnati is a much different team on the road than it is at home and this team could feasibly 0-5 on the highway right now. The other losses were in Chicago and Cleveland while wins in Buffalo and Detroit were by a field goal each and the home teams could have come away with the victory there. This is what we call a false favorite yet the public is hammering the Bengals but the line is coming that. That should tell you something. Baltimore has lost three straight games, all of which could have been won so that puts the Ravens in a must win situation here sitting at 3-5. Four of their last five games have been on the road along with a bye in the mix so coming back home is a needed thing. Baltimore is 2-1 at home this season and going back, it possesses one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. The Ravens are 25-4 over their last 29 home games and while two of those have been within a span of just five regular season games, they came against Denver and Green Bay with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers respectively behind center. Baltimore is getting outgained by only 17.1 ypg this season and that small differential does not correlate to a team with a 3-5 record. As bad of a rap it may get, the defense is still ranked 10th in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense. It's clear that Baltimore needs to get out to a better start as Baltimore's opponents have scored first in six of eight games, and the Ravens have led at halftime only twice. In five games decided by six points or fewer, the Ravens have four losses. It is desperation time and back home for the first time in three weeks, Baltimore could be in store for putting one of its best games together or the season could be close to done at this point. A win gets the Ravens to within a game and a half of the Bengals in the AFC North and keeps them right in the hunt for the second Wild Card spot. Baltimore has covered six straight against teams with a winning record and it picks up a much needed win this Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Joseph D'Amico

Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers    
Play: Buffalo Bills +3

The line is currently Pitt-3 1/2 with a Total of 44. Guys, the Steelers have fallen. They rush for a laughable, 73.6 YPG and average a mere 19.5 PPG. Once again, the OL is an issue. On "D", they are 31st against the run, allowing 131.2 YPG on the ground. Buffalo has their problems… but their running game ranks 7th, with 145.8 YPG on the legs of Jackson and Spiller. Reports are that EJ Manuel will be back at the helm. He is the most consistent of QBs on the squad. Pitt has had serious beatings from teams that can run the ball well. Tennessee, Cincy, Chicago, Minny, Oakland, and New England all went to town on them and sincerely, the Buffalo backfield is as good or better than any mentioned. The Bills come to play every game like it is the Championship. Too much disparity here. I like Buffalo in a tight one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Chip Chirimbes

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals    
Play: Houston Texans +3

After the way the Texans let us down last Sunday night I couldn't stomach using them in any position that was of any significance. It's just that we have had so much success with the Cardinals at home (Game of the Year winner over the Falcons) and now they are just a field goal over the Texans. Something smells fishy.

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Bill Biles

Broncos vs. Chargers
Play: Over 57½

The Broncos have gone over the posted total in ever game this season, and I do not expect that to change this week. The Chargers last week gave up 30 points to the Redskins. The Broncos should have no trouble scoring over 35 points in this one. The Chargers also have a good offense so I believe the over will hit. I see a 38-24 final. These teams have played to the over in 4 out of the last 5 games.

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AC Dinero

Bills vs. Steelers
Play: Over 43.5

Pride test for the Steeler defense, after giving a 50 spot to the Patriots last week. Buffalo still has QB issues, where EJ Manual looks primed to make the start this week. Look for both teams to rely on the running game, which should shorten the game, which of course is good for Unders. Neither team is particularly explosive in the passing game (the Bills only average 5.7 ypa), which should help an iffy Steeler pass defense. Neither team is very good at converting 3rd downs, less than 38%. The one concern is the Steeler propensity to turn the ball over. Other than that, the Under looks to be the correct side.

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Tony Karpinski

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Houston Texans +3

Your free play for Sunday is the Arizona Cards over Houston, giving the points. Obviously both teams in terrible situations. Houston dealing with the Gary Kubiak situation, and will be led by Wade Phillips. They come in and certainly their focus will be in question. Arizona can hold their own vs. some of the better teams, as they have proven several times this season, including games vs. Detroit and Carolina. Houston isn’t one of the better teams, by any means, Patrick Peterson will likely be guarding Andre Johnson for the day, but after him there isn’t a bunch to really worry about, Hopkins is an up and coming WR, but not enough to really open things up to be too much danger for the Cardinal secondary. This could actually get bad quickly for Houston. Hamstring issued Fitz, still at 75% is a more than capable WR to make plays, and Michael Floyd has been improving on the year. He is coming around as a very viable WR2. Arizona is coming in off the bye, after their destruction of the Falcons. Houston has been buried with injuries, Arian Foster, Matt Schaub is still hurt. Case Keenum has been playing decently in his absence. And is probably the better option for them going forward overall. He hasn’t won any games yet, but he’s not turning the ball over, as was the massive issue with Schaub this season, of course. Houston is a terrible road team, they don’t travel well, no way they win this game. Arizona is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.

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Sean Murphy

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Pick: Under

The Packers are going to be in tough with Aaron Rodgers sidelined for at least three weeks with an injured collarbone. I don't think I'm alone in having little faith in journeyman QB Seneca Wallace taking over the offense.

Wed did cash an 'over' ticket in the Eagles 49-20 rout of the Raiders last week, but I see this as a good spot to switch gears.

Nick Foles isn't going to throw for seven touchdowns again this week. That goes without saying. Everything broke right for the Eagles QB last Sunday, but it also helped that he was facing a Raiders defense that simply didn't come to play. Things should be much tougher this week, as he faces a Packers 'D' that knows it needs to shoulder more of the load with Rodgers sidelined.

The good news is, Green Bay is expected to have LB Clay Matthews back in the fold.

Lost in the Eagles offensive outburst last week was the fact that their defense allowed 20 points or less for the fourth consecutive game. Obviously, this is a unit that was a bit of a laughing stock earlier in the season, but has rounded into form lately. There's no question they'll be licking their chops at the prospect of facing Wallace under center, but I don't expect them to take their opponent lightly either. They know that the Packers still have more than enough offensive talent without Rodgers to command plenty of respect.

I'm confident we'll see the Packers employ a fairly conservative offensive gameplan here, knowing that Wallace's abilities are limited at this stage of his career, and also knowing that they have one of the league's top rushers in rookie Eddie Lacy. If the Pack can win the time of possession and field position battle they'll be in good position to take down the Eagles, who have gone cold at times on offense in recent weeks.

The last time these two teams met, it was under much different circumstances in the playoffs back in January of 2011. That game totaled only 37 points. The stakes aren't quite as high, and the personnel much different on both sides, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Teddy Covers

Dallas vs. New Orleans
Pick: Over

Dallas can’t stop the pass, plain and simple.  Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2 defense has been an improvement over Rob Ryan’s stop unit from last year in one regard only – they force more turnovers. 

Last year, the Cowboys finished the season creating only 16 takeaways in 16 games.  This year, the Cowboys have 21 takeaways through their first nine games and rank #2 in the NFL with a +10 turnover margin.

Drew Brees threw a pair of interceptions in an ugly loss at the Jets last Sunday.  This offense is clearly built for domes, not for outdoor venues.  They were held to just two field goals and one third down conversion after halftime, reminiscent of their road showing at Tampa Bay (only one offensive touchdown) and Chicago (also only two field goals in the second half).

But Brees doesn’t throw many picks at home.  In fact, his home/road splits are rather sharp.  At the Superdome, Brees is completing 72% of his passes with a 14-2 TD – INT ratio, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt.  On the highway, Brees is only completing 61% of his passes with a 7-5 TD – INT ratio, averaging only 7.3 yards per attempt.   There’s a 40 point difference in his QB rating.

This is neither new, nor different. Brees had a sharp road home split last year and in 2011 as well.  The Cowboys defense has allowed 400+ passing yards to Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford already this year; giving up 30+ points in all four of those games against quality opposing quarterbacks.

A veteran QB like Brees is made for gaining chunks of yardage against a suspect Cover-2 defense, finding the holes in the zone again and again.  And coming off a poorly played loss, returning to the friendly confines of their home dome, it’s hard for me to picture a scenario in which New Orleans doesn’t get the Saints into the 30’s this week as well.

The Cowboys completely gave up on the run in their win over Minnesota last week.  A healthy DeMarco Murray had only four carries; and the Cowboys had only eight rushing attempts on their 63 snaps.  While Dallas might run the football a bit more this week, we can certainly expect Tony Romo to air it out again against a Saints defense that has been vulnerable to big plays of late.

This will be the best passing offense the Saints have faced all year.  In their last test against a top notch QB, they got torched by Tom Brady for 30 points and 269 passing yards even without Brady’s favorite targets (Amendola and Gronkowski) in the lineup.  Jay Cutler threw for 369 yards against them the week before that. Other QB’s they’ve faced in the last eight weeks? Josh Freeman, Thad Lewis, Geno Smith, Carson Palmer and Ryan Tannehill; not exactly a who’s who of quality signal callers.

The Saints defensive numbers have declined markedly in recent weeks since their hot start to the season.  The Cowboys defense can’t stop any strong passing attack.  Look for a bigtime shootout in New Orleans on Sunday Night, sending this game up and Over the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 10

Marc Lawrence

Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Buffalo

How low can a team go? The Steelers pathetic 4Q meltdown against the Patriots last week not only resulted in the most points ever allowed by a Steel Curtain defense, but also the worse loss ever in franchise history. As a result, a defense that allowed a league-best 276 YPG last season is surrendering 342 YPG this campaign. Q: Do you think the loss of James Harrison was meaningful, or what? Mike Tomlin’s troops will look to turn the corner today knowing they are 5-0 SUATS the last five games as a host in this series, but only 1-9 ATS as favorites of less than 7 points in the first of back-to-back home games. The good news for Buffalo is the reported return of starting QB EJ Manuel, and it’s needed as the Bills’ lone win without him was a scant 2-point decision over the Dolphins in Thad Lewis’ return home to Miami. While we’d like to hop all over the Steelers at this price, experience has taught us to back off of teams that are favored with problems. Given the fact that Buffie drilled Kansas City in the stats, 470-210, in its home loss last week, we’ll opt instead for the blue-collar dog here.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.

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