Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Bob Balfe

Philadelphia Eagles +1.5

The Eagles offense has looked poor the last two weeks, but they were not healthy at quarterback. We know Foles can run this offense because we have seen him do it before. With all the talk about the Eagles lack of offense it must be noted that this defense is starting to really come around. Oakland is improving and they play a college football style run game with the quarterback, but that only lasts so long in the NFL. Pryor does not scare me throwing the ball and the real key for this game is that banged up Raiders Offensive Line. They have starters and backups out. If any of them go down today they might have to put guys from the defensive line in the game. I think the Eagles Offense will get back on track against a defense in Oakland that has not played together as a unit for that long. It will be interesting to see how they communicate against a complex offense like Philadelphia’s. Oakland is getting too much love while the Eagles are betting bashed for not putting up 60 a game with Chip Kelly. I think the public is fooled today. Take Philly.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Larry Ness

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots

The New England Patriots sit atop the AFC East at 6-2 but it’s hardly been an impressive first half of the season for the Pats (4-4 ATS), especially for QB Tom Brady. Brady KNOWS he can play better and thinks his team can as well. Brady and the Pats look to establish some consistency and remain unbeaten at home, by capitalizing on a game with the Steelers, a team definitely in need of some improvement considering its current 2-5 record.

Brady is having his worst season as a pro, completing 55.7 percent of his passes with nine TDs, six INTs and a QB rating of 74.9, 20.7 below his career mark. Brady’s recent numbers in the team’s last four games (Pats are 2-2), are even worse, as he completing 52.3 percent of his pass attempts for 810 yards with two TDs, four INTs and a 61.6 QB rating. "We're trying," Brady said. "There are a lot of things we can do better." Despite uncharacteristically low numbers from Brady, the Pats lead the Jets by two games in the AFC East.

That’s something the Steelers are well aware of. "You can pick apart his numbers, but the only one that matters is 6-2," Pittsburgh safety Ryan Clark said. "When you give Tom Brady a chance to win a football game, he's going to do it." Beating Pittsburgh is something Brady has become well accustomed to. He’s won SIX of eight meetings, including both in the postseason, tossing 16 TDs with just three interceptions. Protecting Brady has been an issue in 2013, as he’s been sacked 23 times already, just four fewer than all of last season.

The good news for New England fans is that the Steelers, have managed just 10 sacks on the year, one more than league-worst Chicago. However, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing an average of 302.9 YPG. "They have a good defense and the way we've been playing offensively, we can't be up and down like we've been," Brady said. "We have to be more consistent. Hopefully this is our best week to be able to do that." Offense has been Pittsburgh’s problem this year, as the Steelers haven’t cracked 30 points all season, reaching as many as 20 points just twice (in losses to Chicago and Minnesota).

That hardly bodes well here in Foxboro, where the Pats have played excellent defense. New England allowed 27 points against the Saints (understandable) but scored 30 in a winning that game. In team's other three home games, they’ve allowed a total of just 30 points. Pittsburgh comes in with an offense tied for 27th in scoring (17.9 PPG), with a patchwork offensive line that lost three more players to injury last week. That will slow the running game and Roethlisberger was sacked five times in Oakland, boosting his season total to 26.

Just no way I want ANY part of the Steelers in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jimmy Boyd

New York Jets +7

The Jets are being undervalued based on last weeks performance against the Bengals. New York is a solid team with typically a very good defense. They have held opponents to 20.7 points per game at home this season, while allowing just 87 rushing yards per game. The secondary has allowed a mere 53.3% completion percentage in those games.

The Saints do not have that potent offense that would run the score up on opponents like past seasons. They are averaging 23 points per game on the road, and I expect them to struggle to match that number against this very solid Jets defense. After last week's loss I expect the Jets to come out and play a great game. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after giving up more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jack Jones

San Diego Chargers +1

Coming off a bye, the San Diego Chargers are the play in Week 9. This team was coming into its own heading into the bye, and it's looking great right now at 4-3 in the AFC.

Washington is just 2-5 on the season and its two wins are questionable to say the least. Its two wins have come against backup quarterbacks. It beat Oakland's Matt Flynn and beat Chicago's Josh McCown, but barely.

The Redskins have been giving up big numbers through the air, which makes this a terrible matchup for them. Washington ranks 26th against the pass, giving up 273.7 yards per game. San Diego ranks 6th in the league in passing offense at 294.1 yards per game.

Plays on any team (SAN DIEGO) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Chargers Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Scott Delaney

My free winner for today is on the Carolina Panthers, laying a rather big number to their NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons on Tobacco Road.

The Panthers are on a 5-1 ATS streak in NFC South games.

I know the Falcons will be competitive in this game, as they're in must-win mode and have no choice but to win this game in order to salvage the season. But, I don't think it's going to happen, and when all said and done, it'll be the Panthers pulling away late for the win and cover.

Big deal, the Falcons may have looked good in a victory over Tampa Bay, but then they turn around and have a poor showing in the desert against the Arizona Cardinals. Today they play the surging Panthers, and they can't let up one bit, as they'll host Seattle next week. Carolina is going to be led by Cam Newton, who has been outstanding in throwing the ball all over the place in wins against Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Plus, he's been able to run the ball effectively to help balance things out.

Trust me here, Carolina not only has a balanced offense that rests in Newton's hands, it also has a dominating defense. The Panthers have a Top 5 defense and are in after limiting the Bucs to 48 yards rushing and 297 yards overall. They have the No. 9 pass defense, and that's exactly what they'll need against the high-flying Falcons.

This is a pivotal NFC South clash, and I like the surprising second-place Carolina Panthers, as they've covered 5 of 6 in NFC South play.

2♦ CAROLINA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Chris Jordan

My free play for Sunday is going to be on Kansas City laying what I feel is a low number in Buffalo to a struggling Bills team that won't be able to penetrate the Chiefs' stingy and stalwart defense.

Some might accuse the Chiefs (8-0) of a potential letdown in this one, as they'll enjoy a bye next Sunday, one week prior to an AFC West showdown with the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning.  But veteran coach Andy Reid is not only one of the best in keeping his teams focused, but he also is one of the best following a bye. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas City win this game handedly, enjoy the bye week and then challenge the Broncos in Denver for an outright win.

First things first, as Kansas City will undoubtedly have its hands full against a Buffalo team that has been no pushover this season, going 2-2 at home, with the two losses decided by a combined five points. And not that I'm doubting the Chiefs' ability to handle the Bills (3-5), I just think Reid won't take anything lightly considering how feisty Buffalo can be at Orchard Park.

Kansas City's defense has not allowed more than 17 points this season, and that couples nicely against a Buffalo offense that is dealing with hobbling running backs C.J. Spiller (sprained left ankle) and Fred Jackson (sprained left knee). Meanwhile, Stevie Johnson, the team's leading receiver, is bothered by a number of injuries, including a sore hip. At the quarterback spot, rookie starter EJ Manuel (sprained right knee) still isn't ready, Kevin Kolb (concussion) is on season-ending injured reserve and interim starter Thad Lewis' status is uncertain due to bruised ribs. This all will work well for the Chiefs, who have a league-leading 36 sacks.

I know Buffalo has covered five straight at home, but the favorite has covered five of the last seven when these two get together. Lay the road chalk in this one.

3♦ KANSAS CITY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jeff Benton

Sunday freebie is the Seahawks back in their home digs to just manhandle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Seattle was less than impressive offensively in their 14-9 win and survive-job last Monday at St. Louis, but their defense once again was the difference maker in that game. Look for that rock-ribbed "D" to present all kinds of problems for the rookie Mike Glennon and his Bucs.

Tampa is averaging just over 14 points per game, so facing one of the best stop units in all of the NFL, coupled with the ear-deafening crowd at CenturyLink Field, it will be quite difficult for the Buccaneers to get close to their season average.
Seattle has covered 2 of their 3 home games this season, and are 12-5 overall against the spread as the home favorite dating back to the 2009 campaign.

Tampa Bay meanwhile is on a 5 game spread slide, and are just 1-6 overall versus the line this season.

Must lay the chalk in this one.

3♦ SEATTLE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Craig Davis

I'm taking a big chance on the lowly Cowboys this week as your free play of the day, only because I have a feeling they are going to come out pissed off after dropping last week's game the way they did.

The Cowboys completely dominated the Lions last week for 59 minutes and in typical Cowboys fashion, found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I completely lay the blame for last week's loss squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff, period!! When you stop a potent offense like Detroit's in the final two minutes, getting the ball back on downs deep in the other team's territory, you should be able to get one first down and run the clock out.

Oh no... not Dallas. They decided to run three stupid plays and actually lose yardage, settling for a FG but having to kick the ball back to the Lions.

STUPID mistake!!

You know the rest of the story as the Lions drive down the field and score with :12 seconds left. Pitiful!!

Having said that, Minnesota is awful. Christian Ponder is not an NFL quarterback. He doesn't have a ton of weapons to help him aside from the best RB in the NFL.

Dallas will do what the rest of the teams in the NFL have done against Peterson... stack the box against him and force Ponder to make throws.

If he can, then I might lose this free play. But I'm betting that he can't.

Take Dallas minus the big number as your free play of the day.

4♦ DALLAS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Brad Wilton

Going to play the Under in the Philadelphia-Oakland contest this Sunday at the "Black Hole".

Chip Kelly has given the nod to Nick Foles with Michael Vick sidelined yet again with injury, but let's keep in mind that Foles is one good hit away from being sidelined again after a recent concussion. Matt Barkley better stay warm on the sidelines for this one, that is for sure.

Whoever it is for Philly, one thing is for certain, the Birds offense has been grounded with just 10 points total in their last pair of games - both losses, and both games holding Under the total.

Oakland has become quite the Under play, as 6 of their 7 games this season have played below the total. The overall Under run is now 12-2 for the Raiders since the middle of last season.

Until I see some evidence that the Eagles can get some consistent scoring going their way once again, I am inclined to lean Under the total in this Philadelphia-Oakland matchup.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA-OAKLAND UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Brett Atkins

My free winner for Sunday is on the Washington Redskins at home against the San Diego Chargers, in a near pick'em game. I see the 'Skins laying -1 at some places, and a pick'em in the rest. Personally, I think Washington wins by at least four points in what could end up being a very exciting game

The 'Skins may only be 2-5 on the year, but they also play in an NFC East division that could send a 9-7 division champ into the postseason. So, being in must-win mode, Washington knows that if the Eagles lose in Oakland and it beat the Bolts, the 'Skins will move into second place by a half-game, and just behind first-place Cowboys.

Though the Chargers have won two straight and three of four, this is a milestone game for Washington, which hosts its annual "Homecoming" game that honors former players. Last season the Redskins lost their homecoming game to Carolina, so they're going to be out to avenge that loss.

They're in the right spot to do so, against a Chargers team that is traveling across the MIssissippi for the fourth time this season. And even though the Bolts are 2-1 in their first three and have been competitive all seasoin, this is going to be one road trip that will be hard on them.

The Chargers' defense won't be much help, as it checks in with a league-low four takeaways (one fumble, three interception). On top of that, San Diego has scored seven points off turnovers - because it barely gets any at all - compared to Washington's 55.

This one being in Washington D.C., the Redskins are going to come after the Bolts from every angle and will shine on both sides of the ball. Take Washington as your free play for Sunday..

4♦ WASHINGTON

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. JETS +6½ over New Orleans

The weather is cooling down significantly this week and now we start seeing some warm weather teams playing in cold weather conditions and that’s not usually a good time to be spotting road points. Game time temperature in New York today is 43 degrees and because the Jets left their manhood in Cincinnati last week, this line is an overreaction to that crushing loss. Perhaps it was the glow from the win over the Patriots the previous week that blinded them in Cincinnati but whatever the case may be, the Jets figure to bounce back here before their bye next week. The Jets are still 4-4 this season and have won two of three home games. The Jets defense has been quite good overall, especially the run defense and the Saints mish mash of running backs are not likely to do much damage here. Geno Smith is not setting the world on fire but at least this kid gives the Jets a chance. He’s fearless and does not get rattled when things aren’t going well.

New Orleans has had about the easiest schedule in the NFL. They opened the year with wins over Atlanta by 6 and over Tampa Bay by 2. Combined, that pair is 2-12 overall and 0-6 on the road. Next up for the Saints were home games against Arizona and Miami, two more garbage squads. New Orleans next two games were against Chicago and New England and they lost in New England. In Chicago, the Saints won 26-18 but that incredibly “improved defense” was shredded for 358 passing yards by Jay Cutler and the Saints were outgained in that contest. A bye week ensued followed by last week’s win over the Bills in New Orleans. Don’t get us wrong here. The Saints are still a team that possesses one of the top 3 QB’s in the league and stopping them is near impossible. However, keeping pace with them is not impossible and the Jets defense does a great job of containing elite passing games. So forget last week’s debacle against the Bengals. It happens but the market has overreacted and that’s the worst time of all to be stepping in on a significant road favorite playing in cold weather for the first time this year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

SEATTLE -14.5 over Tampa Bay: (Added) We hear all about the perfect storm for a play, but is their any game more suited for that than this one? The Seahawks played an embarrassing game on MNF on the road vs the Rams and you can bet that the coaching staff has been all over them this week and will be looking to take it out on the hapless Bucs in this one. Add in the fact that Tampa Bay has plenty of internal issues and have pretty much quit on their team and we have the making of a blow out here. Mike Glennon is not the answer at QB and Mike James is no Doug Martin at RB. The defense is horrid and the coach has lost his team. Now with all the problems they must travel to one of the toughest venues in the league to take on an angry, and I mean angry bunch of Seahawks that has already beaten an equally bad Jacksonville team on this field by 28 points this year. And that was when they were in a prefect letdown spot after crushing the Niners and then having a road game vs Houston on deck. There is no let up on this team and they will look to crush the Bucs in this one. 


Top 5 Power Angles For Today (17-8)

The San Diego Chargers are 13-1 to the OVER before playing the Denver Broncos. Play On Washington/ San Diego Over 51

The Carolina Panthers are 18-2-1 to the UNDER when installed as division home favorites. Play Carolina/ Atlanta Under 46.5

The New York Jets are 0-9 ATS as non-conference dogs of 4 or more. Play On New Orleans -6.5 over NY Jets

New England is 17-6-1 ATS after playing the Dolphins, including 8-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU & ATS loss. Play On New England -6 over Pittsburgh

The Kansas city Chiefs are 13-33 ATS vs AFC East teams since 1992, including 0-9 ATS in their last 9 vs them. Play on Buffalo +5 over Kansas City


SYSTEM OF THE WEEK (3-2)

Play the Over when an AFC team visits an NFC team and the OU line is 45 or higher, while the game line is 7 or less. Games in this spot have gone 20-5 to the Over the last 4 years. Play Washington/ San Diego Over 51

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Joe Gavazzi

New Orleans -6

The Jets are in an intriguing win/lose pattern that has persisted through their first 8 games. After the 49-9 beat down in Cinci (we mentioned how poorly the Jets had played after monumental wins), they are due for a positive effort this week. Despite a league worst -12 in the net TO margin, the Jets are still 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS; that will happen when you’re able to rush the ball an average of 30 times a game and beat opponents at the point of attack 120-78. Add a defense that allows just 315 YPG, and you have a formidable foe. Speaking of improved defenses, how about that of the Saints, who under DC Ryan, the equally famous brother of Jets’ HC Ryan, are allowing a vastly improved 17 PPG. With HC Payton at the helm, it is no surprise that New Orleans stands 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS with the only blemish a late game comeback vs the Pats in New England. Among many positive roles for HC Payton is one that shows him to be 15-3 ATS in the role of non division road chalk. Yet the ultimate deciding factor in divesting this opinion is the huge edge at the signal caller spot with veteran QB Brees (68%/8.0) against rookie QB Smith (59%/6.4).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

SPORTS WAGERS

ORLANDO +214 over Brooklyn

The Nets are coming off a huge win over the Heat in their much-anticipated season opener. They played like it was the playoffs and they celebrated like it was the playoffs. Now this overhyped group of aging and former all-stars will take their collection of superstars to Orlando and play in what has to be a massive letdown spot against a team with no fanfare or hype. Incidentally, The Nets lost their season opener on the road to Cleveland. Losing on the road is something that Nets fans should get used to because these Nets’ players are going to take a lot of nights off in this long season and show up in body only. This looks like one of those times.

Orlando has played three games already and sit at 1-2. However, two of those games were on the road in Indiana and Minnesota and the Magic were in a position to win them both. Those are two tough road games against two very good opponents and Orlando did not look a bit out of place. In their only home game, the Magic buried the Pelicans by 20. This is a very decent and underrated Magic squad. Jameer Nelson and Arron Afflalo could crack the starting lineup on 97% of the teams in this league. Young players like No. 2 pick Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic and Maurice Harkless have all shown outstanding development already and all three are impacting the game. A ready and enthusiastic Magic team that looks good absolutely has a chance to win this game outright and frankly, we give them a better tan 50% chance of doing just that. Keep the points, we’re playing Orlando outright.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas +137 over OTTAWA

Regulation only. When something is not right, it’s simply not right and there has to be more to it than just a bad run of games. There is something definitely not right with the Senators. Known for their relentless hard work, and discipline, the Senators have been playing completely out of character this season for more games than not. The Senators have one win over their past six games. They’ve allowed five goals or more against in three straight. They’ve allowed 97 shots on net in their past two games and blew two, two goal leads in their last game against the Islanders. In that game against the Islanders, Ottawa should have lost 10-1, not 5-4 because that’s how bad they looked. It’s not a matter of a slow start anymore. The season is well underway and teams are establishing who they are. The Sens have turned softer and much easier to play against and now their once strong goaltending has turned on them also.

The Stars are establishing themselves as a tough out every night. Dallas has picked up points in four of its past five games and rallied from two down to send their last game into OT against the Avalanche. Dallas plays six of its next seven games on the road beginning here and setting the tone is of the upmost importance. The Stars are in much better form than the Sens and now it is they and not the Sens that are displaying that strong work ethic it takes to win consistently in this league.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

John Ryan

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: St. Louis Rams

I had the Rams as a 10* graded play Monday that extended my NFL record to a very strong 22-6 ATS and 78% winners. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. The Rams did a fantastic job establishing the power run game against a very strong Seattle defensive front. This was quite impressive knowing that Seattle DT Mebane ranks 2nd in the NFL among all tackles in run defense. Even more impressive was that the Rams defense held Seattle to just 135 offensive yards. Locker has come back much quicker from injury and is now coming off the BYE. Yet, he had his lowest grade against the 49ers and this Rams defense is going to present a mountain of challenges for the Titans to move the chains. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-32 mark using the money line making 46 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play on underdogs using the money line (ST LOUIS) that is a slow starting team outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Take the Rams.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Charlie Sports

Cleveland Browns +2

The 3-4 Baltimore Ravens of the AFC North division will take on the 3-5 Cleveland Browns also of the AFC North division in 2013 NFL action. Baltimore is 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 NFL games in the Month November. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland last Football 6 games played in Week 9. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS their last 5 played in Cleveland.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Rocketman

Kansas City @ Buffalo
Play:  Buffalo +4

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Sunday afternoon.  Kansas City is a very surprising 8-0 SU on the season while Buffalo comes in with a 3-5 SU record this year.  Kansas City is 13-33 ATS last 46 games against AFC opponents.  Buffalo is 5-0 SU and ATS last 5 games at home vs Kansas City.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS last 14 games overall vs Kansas City.  Buffalo is 2-0 SU and ATS the past 3 years vs Kansas City where they won 35-17 and 41-7.  I don't think it will be a blowout today but I do think the Bills will hand the Chiefs their first loss of the year and at the very least keep it close and cover the number.  We'll recommend a small play on Buffalo today!

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