Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Boise State at BYU
The Broncos look to take advantage of a BYU team that is coming off a 47-46 win over Houston and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Boise State is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cougars favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+7 1/2)

Game 109-110: Boise State at BYU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 99.002; BYU 103.711
Dunkel Line: BYU by 4 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: BYU by 7 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+7 1/2); Over

CFL

Game 293-294: Edmonton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 107.122; BC 111.201
Dunkel Line: BC by 4; 55
Vegas Line: BC by 7; 51
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7); Over

NHL

Anaheim at Ottawa
The Ducks look to bounce back from last night's 4-1 loss to Montreal and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games when playing on 0 days rest. Anaheim is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+105)

Game 1-2: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.693; Pittsburgh 10.737
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+170); Over

Game 3-4: Toronto at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.793; Columbus 12.382
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-125); Under

Game 5-6: Anaheim at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.075; Ottawa 11.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+105); Over

Game 7-8: Buffalo at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.153; Florida 11.640
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-145); Under

Game 9-10: Vancouver at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.135; St. Louis 12.676
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 11-12: Carolina at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.922; Colorado 11.087
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+160); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

Jeff Scott Sports

Boise State/ BYU Under 61.5: I do not expect a 7-6 final like last year's game, but these teams will also not come close to the 93 points that BYU and Houston put up last week. The BSU defense has not been it's self this year, but they have played much better of late, allowing 329 ypg and 15.7 pg in their last 3 games. This is also a team that may take to the run a bit more with Southwick not in there. Boise state entered last week's game vs Nevada having thrown for 290 ypg, while rushing for 188 ypg, but in the game, with Hendrick as their QB they passed for just 150 yards and ran for 407. Without Southwick this will be more of a running team this year. BYU has been a running team all year as 62.1% of their plays this year have been a running play. All that running, plus having two good defenses on the field should keep this game in the low 50's at best.

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Jimmy Boyd

Boise State/BYU Under 61½

The total on this game is set far too high given how well both of these defenses have played and the fact that Boise State is playing with their back-up quarterback. It is going to take time for Grant Hedrick to get used to playing in the starting role, and for that reason the Broncos offense production should be slowed down a bit this week. Defensively Boise State has held opponents to 22.9 points per game while those opponents have averaged 27.8 points per game prior to facing the Broncos. Their defense is very undervalued.

The Cougars do not have a lot of explosive offensive talent. They have built up their scoring average thanks to a few teams that have had very soft defenses against the run. That is not the case with Boise State, as the Broncos have held opponents to a mere 3.5 yards per carry. The Cougars run the ball an average of 56 times per game out of 90 total offensive plays, making them a one dimensional team that Boise State should have no problem shutting down. The Cougars also have a tough defense. They have held opponents to 17.7 points per game this season and will be facing a back-up quarterback. Expect this matchup to turn into a defensive battle.

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John Ryan

Boise St. at BYU
Play: BYU

The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by 9 or more points. Boise comes into this game with some impressive stats that rank high,. but when you look at the SOS it pales in comparison to those of BYU. Boise has played two formidable foes and lost both of them. They were throttled by Washington in Week1 38-6 and lost to Fresno State 41-40 in Week 4. Four if their five wins saw them installed as 23 1/2 point favorites or greater. BYU lost at UVA in Week 1, then defeated Texas in Week 2. They have had just one game where they were favored by more than 20 points. In their last four games, BYU has averaged 38 PPG and never less than 31 points. This 'seasoning' against strong competition gives BYU a huge advantage against Boise State, who has not seen the power, speed, and athleticism in game situations. BYU is off a terrible game, though, based on too many mistakes. However, they are a very well coached team and are on a 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) run after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Take BYU.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

Jim Feist

CF (109) BOISE STATE VS (110) BYU

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your free pick for Friday, October 25th, 2013, comes in college football as Boise State plays BYU. A cool night in Provo and a pair of powerhouse defenses meet. Boise State allows 22.9 ppg, but the offense lost QB Joe Southwick last week (broken ankle). They are on short rest with their new QB and take on a BYU defense that is 29th in the nation allowing 21.4 ppg. The under is 15-5 in the Cougars last 20 vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 under the total against the Mountain West. And when BYU plays these Friday night games, the under is 12-3-1. Play Boise State/BYU under the total.

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The DCI Index favors the under in this game.

DCI Index
FBS Non-Conference
Boise State 25.7 at BYU 31.8

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

EZWINNERS

Boise State +6.5

BYU has covered the spread in two out of the three meetings between these two teams, but Boise State has won all three meetings and this is the first time that the Cougars are favored in this match up. The Bronco's lost starting quarterback Joe Southwick to a broken ankle early in last week's game against Nevada, but backup quarterback junior Grant Hedrick is more than capable of running the show. The Cougars are coming off of a draining 47-46 win over Houston last Saturday and I expect this game to be close. Last year these two teams played one of the ugliest games of the season and even though I expect more scoring than last years 7-6 game, I do expect this one to be close all the way. Take the points.

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Dave Cokin

Anaheim at Ottawa
Take: Ottawa

Ottawa coach Paul McLean: “We felt that we were a team that could play fast and play 200 feet and they were way better at it than we were. I think that was an eye opener for us.”

Senators forward and ex-Duck Bobby Ryan: “That was a tough one. To come out and lay a dud, which is the right way to put that…no, I don’t think we can play much worse.”

Those quotes from today’s Ottawa Sun provide some insight into the mindset the Senators appear to be carrying into tonight’s home game with Anaheim. The Ducks humiliated the Sens in their previous meeting this season, a complete domination for 60 minutes that the Ottawa players have not put in the rear view mirror just yet.

The Senators have turned things around of late, and they’re off their best game of the season as they smashed the Red Wings on the road Wednesday night. As for the Ducks, they have now lost back to back games and were not very good in the loss last night at Montreal. Teams playing two road games in two nights are struggling mightily on those back ends thus far, and with Anaheim down to one big league goalie right now, this looks like a tough spot for the Ducks. Add in what appears to be a very motivated host and this shapes up as a good spot to be on the Senators at a reasonable price.

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LT Profits

Boise State Vs BYU
Pick : BYU -6.5

It is not often that the Boise State Broncos lose handily, but it could happen when they visit the BYU Cougars Friday. BYU has looked as good as any team in the country during its four-game winning streak and has gone 5-2 vs. a tough schedule ranked 24th in SOS with the two losses being by three points and seven points. The Cougars are ranked 14th in total offense and 37th in total defense, and don’t get fooled by the 47-46 win at Houston last week as BYU would have won much easier if Houston didn’t score 16 points on defense and special teams. Houston was held to eight points in the second half. Boise State is also 5-2, but that is vs. a schedule ranked 97th in SOS and BYU represents a step up from the Mountain West. BYU is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. the Mountain West Conference.

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SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA -½ +117 over Anaheim

Regulation only. What a tough spot for the Ducks. After seven wins in a row, Anaheim went into Toronto on Tuesday and opened up a 2-0 lead before surrendering four unanswered goals in a 4-2 loss. Last night, Anaheim went into Montreal and got beat 4-1 because Carey Price was much better than Jonas Hiller. After losing in two cities that players get jacked up to play in, the Ducks will now play their third road game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs against the toughest team of the bunch. There’s also a good chance that the Ducks will use backup goaltender Victor Fasth here.

Ottawa got out of the gate slowly but they had its best game of the year in Detroit on Wednesday night, whacking the Red Wings 6-1. The Sens have now won three of their past four and that last win instilled even more confidence in them. When the Senators peak, and they could be heading in that direction right now, they are going to be beasts to play against. Ottawa has scored four goals or more in all three of those aforementioned wins for a total of 15 goals. The Sens only loss over that span came against Edmonton in a game the Sens dominated from start to finish. Ottawa should be on a 4-0 run right now and with the way they’re playing they should have little trouble disposing of a tired Ducks’ squad. 


N.Y. Islanders/PITTSBURGH Over 5½

One can’t help but recollect last year’s first round of the playoffs when the Islanders are in Pittsburgh. You may remember that series in which Marc Andre Fleury couldn’t stop a puck the entire series. The problem was, Evgeni Nabokov was worse and every time the Islanders scored once, the Penguins scored twice. That was last year but the spots on the leopards haven’t changed all that much. These are still two of the best offensive teams in the league with weak defenses and weak goaltending. Indeed, Fleury is playing much better this season but the Penguins will skip him here in favor of backup Jeff Zatkoff. Nabokov, meanwhile, woke up crapping in his pants.

The Penguins have scored three or more goals in every game this season but one. When they’re home, as they are here, they’re even more dangerous. All Sidney Crosby has done is produce, as his 17 points in nine games will attest to. Meanwhile, the Islanders continue to score as many goals as they give up. Three of their last four games have resulted in scores of 4-3, 4-3 and 5-4. When these two rivals hook up it’s usually an offensive show with plenty of scoring chances and at least one goaltender getting yanked at some point. This one figures to feature that same offensive display as all the others they’ve played against one another over the past couple of years.

Pass CFL

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

SPORTS WAGERS

BYU -7 over Boise State

It’s not often that the Broncos of Boise State are offered a converted TD and that has many people scooping up these points. The Broncs have also covered nine of their past 11 games when being offered points and over that stretch, they have taken the money every time when being offered more than 4 points. This is a team that folks are often scared to wager against because they are almost always well prepared and Coach Chris Peterson is what legendary coaches are made of. That‘s all nice but when these two teams take the field tonight, the Broncos are the inferior team by a wide margin and you can throw all that other crap out the window. Boise State has played one quality team this season (Washington) and got bombed 38-6. BSU has defeated a horrible Nevada team and Air Force and Southern Miss, who are a combined 1-13. The Broncos other wins occurred against UT Martin and Utah State. Boise State also lost its #1 QB, Joe Southwick and now junior Grant Hedrick, although capable, is being asked to step into a difficult situation.

The Cougars have played a much more difficult schedule than the Broncos. BYU defeated then #15 Texas in Week 2 by a 40-21 count that sent the Longhorns into a spiraling nightmare. The Cougars also defeated Georgia Tech by a score of 38-20 and they, too defeated Utah State by a score of 31-14. The Cougars struggled last week against a poor Houston team, eventually winning 47-46 but that was a look ahead game to this Friday night featured ESPN game in much the same manner in which they lost to Utah the week after defeated #15 Texas. The Cougars outstanding running game and solid defense all figure to be on full display here against the most beatable BSU team in years.

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Jimmy Boyd

Texas +2½

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup between the Longhorns and Horned Frogs. TCU has been a major disappointment this season, posting a 3-4 overall record and losing two of their last three games. The Longhorns on the other hand come into this game with a 4-2 overall record, have have won three consecutive games. Texas is undefeated in Big 12 play, and they are coming off a 16-point win over an Oklahoma team that defeated TCU by three points. The Longhorns are also coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for this matchup.

Texas is averaging 33 points per game this season. Their ground attack has been hard to stop, rushing for 203 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. They are not a one-sided team on offense though. The Longhorns are also completing over 60% of their pass attempts for another 254 yards of offense. They have outpaced the Horned Frogs by 127 yards of offense per game this season. Defensively they could stand to improve, but they face a TCU team that is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and completing a mere 57.6% of their pass attempts. If not for a 38 point performance against SE Louisiana, and a 48 point performance against SMU the Horned Frogs would average a mere 18.2 points per game this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

Sean Higgs

Boise State vs. BYU
Play: BYU -7

Let us head to Provo, Utah as BYU hosts the always dangerous Boise State Broncos. Cougars will be looking to avenge a 7-6 loss last year where Boise only points came via a pick 6. BYU failed on a two point conversion late in the 4th that would have given them an 8-7 lead. BYU also turned the ball over 5 times in that game. The fact they were still in it was a statement about how good the defense was.

Now the Cougars were in a wild one last week winning at Houston 47-46. 3 INTs, a pick for 7, a KO return TD, a safety. BYU allowed scores every which way. I would say they came out flat but they did jump out 10-0 and 17-7 after the KO turn. I would say more of a look-ahead spot if anything. But you have to like them scoring with just over a minute to take the lead.

Again, we have big revenge from last year’s sloppy loss. I just don’t think that Boise is a vintage unit.

So, we have Boise State catching a full TD here. But let’s not jump on that so fast. This isn’t a powerful, past Boise squad. This is actually going to be the 3rd time this season they are dogs on the road. They lost both games outright with a 2pt cover vs Fresno so 1-1 ATS in those dog situations.

Boise will also be giving the reigns over to Grant Hedrick who will be making his first career start. This is going to be a tall task to ask as playing on the road against a hostile BYU fan-base will make it an even more difficult spot to be put it. This is also the ESPN game. I feel in a spot like this, the TV cameras always puts an extra pep in the home teams step, and the fans really get into it.

Trend wise we have BYU at 13-5 ATS last 18 vs teams with winning records. So we know they won’t have a problem getting up for this Broncos team. BYU also has dominated MWC teams posting an 11-1 ATS run their last 12 vs them. Boise is just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs teams with winning records. I will say it again. This isn’t a classic Chris Petersen Boise squad. The defense edge I believe rests with the Cougars, and Bronco Mendenhall will have this group extremely focused to get it done in prime time.

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Jimmy Boyd

Boise State/BYU Under 61½

The total on this game is set far too high given how well both of these defenses have played and the fact that Boise State is playing with their back-up quarterback. It is going to take time for Grant Hedrick to get used to playing in the starting role, and for that reason the Broncos offense production should be slowed down a bit this week. Defensively Boise State has held opponents to 22.9 points per game while those opponents have averaged 27.8 points per game prior to facing the Broncos. Their defense is very undervalued.

The Cougars do not have a lot of explosive offensive talent. They have built up their scoring average thanks to a few teams that have had very soft defenses against the run. That is not the case with Boise State, as the Broncos have held opponents to a mere 3.5 yards per carry. The Cougars run the ball an average of 56 times per game out of 90 total offensive plays, making them a one dimensional team that Boise State should have no problem shutting down. The Cougars also have a tough defense. They have held opponents to 17.7 points per game this season and will be facing a back-up quarterback. Expect this matchup to turn into a defensive battle.

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Rob Vinciletti

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Columbus Blue Jackets    
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets -115

Columbus has won 10 of the last 11 when playing off a home win. Tonight they take on a Toronto team that cashed as a big 5* for us 2 days ago in a win vs Anaheim. Toronto has not played well on the road off a home win losing 11 of the last 13. Columbus is off a pair of solid home wins allowing just 2 goals in those wins.

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Ryan M. Sports

Boise St vs BYU
Pick BYU -6.5

The 5-2 Boise St. Broncos head to Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT to take on the 5-2 BYU Cougars. Revenge game here tonight for the Cougars as they lost to the Broncos 7-6 last year in a defensive battle (Broncos only TD was a pick 6 by the nose tackle). Boise QB Grant Hendrick has taken over the keys of the offense since starting QB Joe Southwick went down and performed well last week against a much weaker defense. I expect The 28th ranked BYU defense to hold Boise's offense down, especially since getting back starting senior linebacker Spender Hadley from a 5 game suspension. BYU Cougars are 5-0 ATS since '92 against the Mountain West Conference and I look for that trend to stay undefeated tonight in Provo.

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Harry Bondi

Boise State / BYU Under 61

This is not your typical Boise team. Starting QB Joe Southwick is lost to injury and while his replacement Grant Hendrick has been solid the Bronco's have been winning games with it's defense more than it's offense. BYU 's defense got lit up by Houston last week but that was an anomaly as their defense has been solid particularly when they face familiar Mountain West opponents. Cougars have gone under the total in their four Mountain West games this season ans tonight's game makes it five play under the total in tonight's nationally televised ESPN match-up.

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EZWINNERS

Boise State +6.5

BYU has covered the spread in two out of the three meetings between these two teams, but Boise State has won all three meetings and this is the first time that the Cougars are favored in this match up. The Bronco's lost starting quarterback Joe Southwick to a broken ankle early in last week's game against Nevada, but backup quarterback junior Grant Hedrick is more than capable of running the show. The Cougars are coming off of a draining 47-46 win over Houston last Saturday and I expect this game to be close. Last year these two teams played one of the ugliest games of the season and even though I expect more scoring than last years 7-6 game, I do expect this one to be close all the way. Take the points.

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Dr Bob

BYU (-7) 33 Boise State 28

Boise State’s starting quarterback Joe Southwick was injured on the first series last week and backup Grant Hedrick gets the start tonight against a very good BYU defense that’s yielded just 4.8 yards per play this season to a slate of offenses that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. The game plan with Hedrick will certainly be more conservative based on how they’ve used him in the past. The Broncos tend to settle on short passes while running more often when Hedrick is in the game and that strategy is not a bad one. Hedrick has completed 30 of 37 passes this season, but with an average completion of just 8.8 yards. Over his career Hedrick has completed 44 of 57 passes (77.2%) but has averaged a mediocre 6.3 yards per pass play. This season, Hedrick has averaged 6.7 yards on his 38 pass plays, mostly last week after Southwick was injured, and those have come against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average team (weighted by how many pass plays he had against each team, of course). That’s not too much of a drop off from Boise’s season pass rating of +0.4 yppp and Hedrick adds a running element that Southwick did not. Hedrick ran for 122 yards last week and has 316 yards on 39 career runs so I expect Boise State’s rushing attack to be better while the pass attack isn’t likely to drop too much. The interception rate will also likely drop given that Hedrick tends to throw safe passes and runs when nobody is open. Overall, there doesn’t appear to be a significant difference in Boise State’s offense with Hedrick at quarterback and they could actually be better if he continues to average 8.1 yards per run, as he has done so far in his career.

BYU’s offense has been 0.3 yppl better than average and should perform pretty well against a mediocre Boise defense that’s allowed 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Overall, the math favors BYU by 8 ½ points but the Cougars apply to a very negative 27-87-1 ATS situation that will have me leaning with the Broncos plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 25

Playersbet

1st Half under Under 30.5

Boise State/ BYU Under 61.5

Last year these two teams played to a 7-6 game, do we expect that this year of course not but we do not expect a high scoring game. Both teams posses good defense’s and BYU runs the bal over 60% of the time. When we calcuate thoese 2 stats into our spread we see this game being play in the low to mid 50′s. Under is 12-3-1 in the Cougars’ previous 16 Friday games.

Play Under – Any team against the total in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games 46-18 over the last 10 seasons

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