CFL Week 18 Betting News and Notes

CFL Week 18 Betting News and Notes

CFL Betting Recap - Week 17
VegasInsider.com

League Betting Notes

Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 17
Favorites went 2-1-1 against the spread in Week 17
Home and road teams posted a 2-2 record in Week 17
The 'under' went 4-0 in Week 17

Team Betting Notes

Calgary (13-3) continues to keep its foot on the gas peddle, as they near a West Division title. The Stamps won their fourth game in a row, and they covered for the fourth straight outing. Calgary is also now 4-0 SU and ATS in their past four road contests.

After some mid-season struggles, Saskatchewan (11-5) has come alive again, smashing the BC Lions (9-7) by a 35-14 score. They have now won three straight outings, and they are 2-1 ATS in the past three games after going 0-4 ATS from Sept. 8-29.

The Lions continue to struggle on the road. They have won just three of their nine road contests, and they have failed to cover in each of their past three games.

Toronto (10-6) got back on track with a solid road win against Winnipeg (3-13). The Argos were favored by six in the 26-20 win, so most bettors likely pushed. The Argos are now 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games since a three-game slide against the number from Aug. 18-Sept. 3.

Hamilton (8-8) was a slight road favorite at Montreal (7-9), but suffered a costly setback to fall two games behind Toronto in the East Division.

The under has now cashed in 10 of 16 games for the Ti-Cats this season, including each of the past four outings.

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

There are just two weeks left in the 2013 CFL regular season and while we already know which six teams will be competing for this year’s Grey Cup, the final pieces of the playoff picture continue to be put in place. Last Friday night Calgary took another step towards clinching the West Division title with a 27-13 victory over Edmonton as a five-point road favorite. The following night Toronto put itself in excellent position to claim the East title with a 26-20 win over Winnipeg in a game that ended as a PUSH.

Last Saturday night, Saskatchewan made its presence felt with a 35-14 pasting of British Columbia as a four-point home favorite. The final game in Week 17 saw Montreal top Hamilton 36-5 on Sunday as a 1½-point home favorite in a possible first-round playoff preview in the East Division.

The following is a brief betting preview for this week’s games in the CFL with the opening point-spread and ‘over/under’ lines provided by 5Dimes.

Thursday, Oct. 24

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Toronto Argonauts

Point-spread: Toronto -11½
Total: 53

The Blue Bombers can only play the role of spoiler in this one at 3-13 straight-up (5-10-1 against the spread), but the big question this week is can they hang tough against Toronto for two weeks in a row especially since the back-end of this home-and-home series is on the road where they are 4-4 ATS?

Toronto has yet to clinch the East Division title but last week’s win opened-up a two game lead over Hamilton with two games to play. The Argonauts are 10-6 SU on the year and 8-7-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in their last three games after going OVER in the previous four contests.

Counting last week’s victory, Toronto has won six of the last seven meetings SU and it is 4-2-1 ATS. It will be going for the season series sweep after beating Winnipeg 35-19 on July 19 as a 3½-point road underdog. The total went OVER the 51 ½-point line in that game but it stayed UNDER the 53-point line this past Saturday.

Friday, Oct. 25

Edmonton Eskimos vs. British Columbia Lions

Point-spread: BC -7½
Total: 51

Edmonton is the other CFL team riding out the string at 3-13 SU and it appears to have already raised the white flag on the season with a 1-3 record ATS in its last four games. The Eskimos are 7-9 ATS overall including a 5-2 record ATS on the road this season. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their 16 games.

BC needs to quickly build some momentum for the postseason after losing its last three games both SU and ATS. It has fallen to 9-7 SU overall and 7-9 ATS which means it will most likely be on the road for its first playoff game. The Lions are healthy 6-1 SU at home this season with a 4-3 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four home games.

The Eskimos have dropped the last four meetings SU and they are 1-8 SU in the last nine games between the two. BC has also covered in seven of those nine meetings including both of the previous games this year. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the last five meetings.

Saturday, Oct. 26

Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats


Point-spread: Hamilton -5½
Total: 53½

Montreal showed some definite signs of life in the win over Hamilton in the home-and-home series opener after losing four of its previous six games SU.  It is now 7-9 SU on the year and 9-7 ATS. It was the just the second time that the Alouettes scored 30 points or more since a 37-30 loss to Toronto on Sept. 8.

The Tiger-Cats brought a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games into last week’s contest and they were 7-2 ATS during the same stretch of games. They are now in danger of losing home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs with another loss this Saturday afternoon at 8-8 both SU and ATS on the year. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of those 16 games.

These two East Division rivals have now split the first two games of this season series with the home team winning each game SU, but Montreal has covered in both. The home team has now won nine of the last 10 meetings SU with Hamilton holding a slight 6-4 edge ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders

Point-spread: Calgary -4½
Total: 54

A Roughriders’ victory this Saturday would give them the tiebreaker in the season series against Calgary and the West Division title should they both end up with the same SU record on the year. They have now won their last three games after suffering through a four-game skid in the month of September. They are 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS with the total staying UNDER in six of their last seven games.

The Stampeders still have a two-game cushion in the West title race at 13-3 SU (11-5 ATS) and they are riding a four-game winning streak into this huge division showdown. They have also covered in each of those games with the total staying UNDER in three of the four contests. Calgary has just one SU loss in its last nine games.

Head-to-head in this rivalry, the home team has won seven of the last eight contests SU with Calgary holding a slight 4-3-1 edge ATS. The total has gone OVER in both meetings this season and in five of the last six games between the two.

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WINNIPEG (3 - 13) at TORONTO (10 - 6) - 10/24/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


EDMONTON (3 - 13) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 7) - 10/25/2013, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MONTREAL (7 - 9) at HAMILTON (8 - 8) - 10/26/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 7-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-4 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SASKATCHEWAN (11 - 5) at CALGARY (13 - 3) - 10/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 113-74 ATS (+31.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 100-66 ATS (+27.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 8-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Edmonton is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
British Columbia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

MONTREAL vs. HAMILTON
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Montreal is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Montreal
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal

SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games
Saskatchewan is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Calgary is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Calgary's last 12 games at home

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Week 18 CFL

Winnipeg (3-13) @ Toronto (10-6) --
Argonauts (-6) led 23-3 at half last week in Winnipeg, hung on for 26-20 win, their sixth win in last seven series games- underdogs are 6-1-1 vs the spread in last eight series games. Toronto won five of last seven games but all those wins were on road- they've lost last three home games, are 2-5 as home favorites, with last three home games staying under total. Winnipeg lost 12 of last 14 games, is 2-7-1 vs spread last ten games, 2-4 in last six road games. Last week was first time since Week 8 that Argos led at half; they're +7 in turnovers in last four games. Former Cardinal QB Hall threw for 385 yards last week in failed comeback try. Last three Toronto games stayed under the total; four of last five Bomber games went over.

Edmonton (3-13) @ British Columbia (9-7) — Skidding Lions lost last three games, giving up 35.3 ppg; they’ve been outscored 61-21 in first half of those games. Luckily for them, the awful Eskimos come to town, having lost last four games, three by 12+ points. BC won first two meetings this season, 17-3 (-3.5), 31-21 (-9); they’ve won four in row and eight of last nine series games, with seven of last nine played here going over the total. Eskimos are 5-2 vs spread as road underdogs, covering last four tries in losses by 5-3-3 points, with a win at Winnipeg, so they’ve competed in games, just haven’t won many (1-13 vs teams other than the Bombers). Lions have given up an average of 150.7 rushing yards/game the last three weeks; they’re 4-3 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 8-10-7-4-3-22 points, with a loss to the Riders. Under is 5-2 in BC’s home games, 1-6 in Edmonton road games.

Montreal (7-9) @ Hamilton (8-8) — Alouettes (-1.5) crushed Hamilton 36-5 at home last week, running out to 31-3 halftime lead, fifth straight win for home team in this series; Als (+8) lost 28-26 here in first meeting five weeks ago—they’ve lost six straight road games in this series, with last five series games in Ontario going over the total. Montreal won three of last four games, covered four of last five; they’re 3-2 as road underdogs this year, 3-5 SU on road, with losses by 8-8-25-7-7 points. TiCats covered eight of last 11 games, are 3-2 SU in last five; they’ve won four of last five home games, with wins by 23-8-2-6 points and a loss to Calgary. Hamilton has been minus in turnovers in each of last five games and outscored in second half in each of its last seven games. Last four TiCat games stayed under the total.

Saskatchewan (11-5) @ Calgary (13-3) — Home side won both series games this year; Roughriders (-2) won 36-21 in Regina in Week 2 (outscored Calgary 22-0 in 2nd half), then lost 42-27 (+3) in post-bye game at McMahon in Week 7, with Stamps outrushing them 223-171. Last four series games went over the total. I say Riders are streaky; this is their season: 5W-L-3W-4L-3W, that’s streaky- they’re 2-1 as a dog this season, 5-3 SU on road, with weird losses at Edmonton/Montreal during their skid. Calgary won eight of last nine games, covering last four; they’re 5-3 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 12-11-15-3-4-27-14 points, with a loss to Toronto. Saskatchewan has nine INTs in its last three games, with a +8 turnover ratio in those games. Seven of eight Stampeder home games went over the total; last five Rider games stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

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Eskimos at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Edmonton Eskimos at BC Lions (-7, 51)

Three straight losses without quarterback Travis Lulay have knocked the BC Lions out of contention to host a playoff game. Lulay remains day-to-day with a shoulder injury, meaning the Lions will likely start Thomas DeMarco when they host the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday. DeMarco is completing just 55 percent of his passes and has thrown eight interceptions over the last three games, and will need to be a lot better if Lulay can’t return in time for the West Semifinal.

The Eskimos have lost four in a row and remain winless against West Division opponents, going 0-8. Edmonton has managed just 22 points over its last two games, overshadowing what has been a solid debut season at starting quarterback for Mike Reilly. Reilly has completed 60.1 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions despite being sacked 53 times while also leading the Eskimos in rushing with 624 yards, and should reach 4,000 passing yards against BC.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-13): Slotback Fred Stamps, who leads the league with 1,259 receiving yards, is 143 away from tying his career high and has a career-best 11 touchdowns. Linebacker Rennie Curran had another strong game last week, leading the team with eight tackles. Curran, named CFL Defensive Player of the Week two weeks ago, is rising to the occasion while linebacker J.C. Sherritt is sidelined with a broken thumb.

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-7): Even without Lulay, slotback Nick Moore reached 1,000 receiving yards in a season for the first time in his career after emerging as the top option in the BC receiving corps. The Lions' defense runs through linebacker Adam Bighill, who leads the team with 84 tackles and eight sacks. Kick returner Tim Brown leads the league with 1,901 combined return yards.

TRENDS:

* Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in BC.
* Eskimos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. West.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six Friday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:


1. Reilly will have his hands full trying to figure out the BC defense, which has limited opponents to a league-low 243.8 passing yards per game.

2. Eskimos DE Marcus Howard leads the team with 10 sacks.

3. The Lions are 6-1 at home.

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Eskimos at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Edmonton Eskimos at BC Lions (-7, 51)

Three straight losses without quarterback Travis Lulay have knocked the BC Lions out of contention to host a playoff game. Lulay remains day-to-day with a shoulder injury, meaning the Lions will likely start Thomas DeMarco when they host the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday. DeMarco is completing just 55 percent of his passes and has thrown eight interceptions over the last three games, and will need to be a lot better if Lulay can’t return in time for the West Semifinal.

The Eskimos have lost four in a row and remain winless against West Division opponents, going 0-8. Edmonton has managed just 22 points over its last two games, overshadowing what has been a solid debut season at starting quarterback for Mike Reilly. Reilly has completed 60.1 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions despite being sacked 53 times while also leading the Eskimos in rushing with 624 yards, and should reach 4,000 passing yards against BC.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-13): Slotback Fred Stamps, who leads the league with 1,259 receiving yards, is 143 away from tying his career high and has a career-best 11 touchdowns. Linebacker Rennie Curran had another strong game last week, leading the team with eight tackles. Curran, named CFL Defensive Player of the Week two weeks ago, is rising to the occasion while linebacker J.C. Sherritt is sidelined with a broken thumb.

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-7): Even without Lulay, slotback Nick Moore reached 1,000 receiving yards in a season for the first time in his career after emerging as the top option in the BC receiving corps. The Lions' defense runs through linebacker Adam Bighill, who leads the team with 84 tackles and eight sacks. Kick returner Tim Brown leads the league with 1,901 combined return yards.

TRENDS:

* Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in BC.
* Eskimos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. West.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six Friday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Reilly will have his hands full trying to figure out the BC defense, which has limited opponents to a league-low 243.8 passing yards per game.

2. Eskimos DE Marcus Howard leads the team with 10 sacks.

3. The Lions are 6-1 at home.

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Alouettes at Tiger-Cats: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-6, 53)

A new-look offense has put the Montreal Alouettes in position to host a playoff game. The Alouettes can tie the Hamilton Tiger-Cats for second in the East Division when they visit the Tiger-Cats in Guelph, Ont., on Saturday. Quarterback Troy Smith and running back Tyrell Sutton were fantastic in their first starts for Montreal last week against Hamilton, which can clinch at least second place with a victory.

The Tiger-Cats are still within striking distance of the Toronto Argonauts for the East Division lead, but quarterback Henry Burris had his worst start of the season last week, throwing for 106 yards. Hamilton’s offense lives and dies with Burris, who leads the league with 4,629 passing yards, but the 38-year-old could be showing signs of fatigue at the end of a long season. Burris won’t have an easy time against an Alouettes' defense that has 51 sacks and a league-leading 23 interceptions.

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (7-9): Linebacker Chip Cox and kick returner Bo Bowling were both named CFL players of the week after last week’s 36-5 rout. Cox, who leads the league with 104 tackles, was named defensive player of the week after adding six tackles and a pair of sacks last Sunday, while Bowling received special teams honours for totalling 118 return yards in his first game of 2013. Cornerback Geoff Tisdale leads the league with six interceptions.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (8-8): Running back C.J. Gable is third in the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,358 in his first CFL season, providing a reliable option for Burris on the ground. Wide receivers Greg Ellingson and Luke Tasker missed practice Wednesday, putting their availability for Saturday in jeopardy. On defense, defensive backs Brandon Isaac and Evan McCullough and linebackers Erik Harris and Nate Bussey also missed practice.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Hamilton.
* Alouettes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Alouettes are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Tiger-Cats last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Smith, a former Heisman Trophy winner, graded his starting debut a “C-plus,” suggesting he expects to improve. Smith threw three touchdown passes in the first half but was largely ineffective in the second half last week.

2. Hamilton K Luca Congi reached 100 kicking points for the seventh straight season.

3. The Alouettes close their regular season with a visit to Toronto, while Hamilton finishes with a road game against Winnipeg.

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