Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

DUNKEL INDEX

New England at Atlanta
The Falcons look to bounce back from last week's 27-23 loss to Miami and build on their 23-9 ATS record in thier last 32 games following a SU defeat. Atlanta is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2)

Game 199-200: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.046; Minnesota 125.186
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Baltimore at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.136; Buffalo 133.522
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 135.652; Cleveland 127.172
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-4); Over

Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.551; Jacksonville 117.807
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 17; 39
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Seattle at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.172; Houston 138.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Arizona at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.499; Tampa Bay 127.670
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Under

Game 211-212: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.060; Detroit 136.676
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: NY Giants at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.611; Kansas City 128.558
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+4 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: NY Jets at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.351; Tennessee 133.411
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Dallas at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.385; San Diego 134.289
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2); Over

Game 219-220: Washington at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.843; Oakland 126.441
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.533; Denver 143.830
Dunkel Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+11); Over

Game 223-224: New England at Atlanta (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.093; Atlanta 140.950
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 225-226: Miami at New Orleans (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; New Orleans 141.914
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at Montreal
The Roughriders look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 home games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-3 1/2)

Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 112.776; Montreal 107.384
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-3 1/2); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Minnesota
The Indians look to clinch home field for the wild-card game and take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-15 in Scott Diamonds last 18 home starts. Cleveland is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-200)

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 16.600; NY Mets (Niese) 15.154
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 16.206; Cincinnati (Reynolds) 14.525
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Miner) 13.934; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.521
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.680; St. Louis (Westbrook) 14.468
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.743; San Francisco (Moscoso) 14.799
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 13.763; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.352
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 963-964: Washington at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 15.358; Arizona (Miley) 13.956
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.253; Toronto (Redmond) 14.986
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.601; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.274
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Huff) 14.971; Houston (Bedard) 13.485
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Over

Game 971-972: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.345; White Sox (Quintana) 14.218
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.686; Minnesota (Diamond) 12.956
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-200); Under

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 16.824; Texas (Darvish) 15.791
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-220); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+180); N/A

Game 977-978: Oakland at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 17.532; Seattle (Ramirez) 16.239
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Under

Game 979-980: Detroit at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.252; Miami (Alvarez) 13.603
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Under

WNBA

Atlanta at Indiana
The Fever look to even up the series and take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games. Indiana is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-5)

Game 605-606: Atlanta at Indiana (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 104.384; Indiana 117.835
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-5); Under

Game 607-608: Minnesota at Phoenix (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.028; Phoenix 117.024
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 157
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Randall The HandleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Giants 0-3 at Chiefs 3-0FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arrowhead will be rockin’. Why shouldn’t it be? The Chiefs are 3-0 while the feeble Giants are a miserable 0-3. Kansas City appears to be back after a long absence from relevance. But this is the NFL. Teams are never quite as good or quite as bad as they may seem. Much of that can be attributed to the unknown of each Sunday and particularly what happens in the turnover game. The Chiefs have yet to commit a turnover. The Giants have had more giveaways than the local food bank with a league-leading 13. These things tend to balance out over time. You can bet that Tom Coughlin will be working his team hard this week, trying to correct said turnovers in addition to the glaring issues on the offensive line. We don’t want to take away from the Chiefs’ quick start and vast improvement, but give us the resilient and talented Eli Manning taking some points over the dink-and-dunk Alex Smith and we won’t refuse them. TAKING: GIANTS +4½
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Seahawks 3-0 at Texans 2-1FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seahawks look unbeatable at the moment. The oddsmakers recognize that. But if you peel back the hype, you’ll find that this is simply a bad number. Houston is a 12-4 team from a year ago, 2-1 this year. Do they really deserve to be an underdog here? We know how good Seattle is at home. They smacked out the 49ers, who don’t look so hot at the moment, and then laid a beating on the hapless Jaguars. In Seattle’s only road game, they were fortunate to come out on the right side of a 12-7 decision at Carolina. Houston’s lame effort in Baltimore last week has also affected this number but we’re glad it did. Houston is a talented bunch on both sides of the ball. Last year, the Texans were favoured in all of their home games. Other than being a 4-point choice over the Packers, they were no less than 6½ over all others and were double-digit chalk in five of eight home games. Now we get three. We like that. TAKING: TEXANS +3
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Dolphins 3-0 at Saints 3-0FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Football folks are impressed by the Saints and we understand that. After all, New Orleans, led by QB Drew Brees, is undefeated and it looks like the team that Sean Payton mentored prior to his 2012 season suspension. Add to the mix that the Saints have won and covered their past 11 in the Superdome and the attraction is even greater. Despite having the same 3-0 mark, the jury is still out on the Dolphins. However, while the résumés to this point are short, they are worth looking at. Both teams defeated the Falcons. The Saints’ other two wins came against the Cardinals and Bucs. Miami won at Cleveland (okay, but it was a road win) and then went into Indianapolis and manhandled Andrew Luck and the Colts. That latter win is impressive after witnessing the Colts shred the 49ers last week. Miami is sound. They have the fourth fewest penalties in the league and they aren’t turning the ball over. That combo gives them a chance to win each week and with a near touchdown to play with, we’ll gladly back that side. TAKING: DOLPHINS +6½
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THE RESTFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Steelers 0-3 vs. Vikings 0-3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is like choosing the best DVD out of the discount bin at Walmart. Given the choice, we prefer an underperforming Vikings squad to a Pittsburgh side which is currently on an 0-7 run including pre-season. The Steelers just don’t have the horses and they hardly deserve to be favoured against a playoff team from a year ago, whether they are playing in London or on the moon. Pittsburgh’s offensive line remains an inept unit as Big Ben (not the clock) has been sacked 10 times this year and the running game ranks 31st in the league. Facing very little, Minnesota should take this one. TAKING: VIKINGS +2½
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Ravens 2-1 at Bills 1-2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let’s not forget that the Ravens are the Super Bowl champions. That carries a big target on their backs every place they go. Even though this isn’t exactly the same roster that won the championship last year, opponents aren’t any less motivated to steal some of their thunder. Despite its 2-1 mark, the offence has struggled, ranking 20th on the ground and 25th through the air. The loss of Anquan Boldin has hurt and Baltimore’s No. 2 guy after Torrey Smith is out with a knee injury. Baltimore has covered only five of the past 11 when spotting road points and this is as tough a venue as any to do so. TAKING: BILLS +3
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Bengals 2-1 at Browns 1-2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here’s a scenario for you. The Bills beat the Ravens and these Browns win this contest. Suddenly, the Cleveland team that everyone felt was about to tank the season is tied for the division lead. Laugh if you will, but with Brian Hoyer sparking this previously lifeless offence with over 300 yards of passing last week, there is some optimism in the Dawg Pound. While the Bengals have improved over these past few years, the Browns have stagnated. Even so, Cincinnati struggles against their in-state rival, failing to cover in three straight including a straight up 34-24 loss on this field last season. Expect a close one. TAKING: BROWNS +4
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Colts 2-1 at Jaguars 0-3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Making a case for the Jaguars is a challenge. This awful football team is the odds on favourite to get next year’s top pick in the draft. But this isn’t about them. This is about a young Colts team that could easily have a letdown here after that enormous upset in San Francisco last week. Indy is not only vulnerable to this situation, it is further perpetuated by a classic sandwich situation where the Colts will be hosting the top rated Seahawks next week. Jacksonville defeated this visitor here last year as a 3-point underdog. Getting nearly a touchdown more in a very dangerous spot, the unpopular choice works for us here. TAKING: JAGUARS +9
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Cardinals 1-2 at Buccaneers 0-3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals don’t play well on the road. The Bucs don’t play well anywhere. Even so, there is too much talent on the Tampa side to ignore at this price against an underwhelming visitor. The Buccaneers have made a change at quarterback, opting to start rookie Mike Glennon. While the fault is not all on Josh Freeman, the team needed a change at the all important position. Tampa will not expect the youngster to win the game. Instead, they’ll put Darrelle Revis on Larry Fitzgerald and that should keep the Arizona in check. The Cards have just one regular season road win in past 10 tries. We’ll fade them at this short price. TAKING: BUCCANEERS -2½
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Bears 3-0 at Lions 2-1FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though is it still September, the Lions need to win this one if they want to be taken seriously. The timing could be right. Detroit returns home after splitting a pair of road games. They should have shifty RB Reggie Bush back in the lineup after missing last week with a knee injury. Bush makes the offence better as defenders have to account for someone other than Calvin Johnson. The Bears have lived a bit of a charmed life early on and could easily be 1-2 instead of its unblemished mark. Chicago’s offensive line is a work in progress and it hasn’t faced the calibre that it will on this day. TAKING: LIONS –3
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NY Jets 2-1 at Tennessee 2-1FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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How fickle football bettors can be. The Jets were supposed to be basement dwellers alongside the Jaguars and Raiders this season. But no one told them and after covering all three games played, they are getting the betting public’s respect. However, barely winning home games to the Bills and the Bucs is not exactly earth shattering. New York took 20 penalties in the Buffalo game and that waves all sorts of red flags. The Jets cannot repeat anything close to that against a Tennessee team that has been almost error free and has yet to commit a turnover. Anti-Jets bettors get some of their money back here. TAKING: TITANS –3½
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Cowboys 2-1 at Chargers 1-2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re always preaching value and this one is textbook. Dallas is like that girlfriend that keeps luring you back, only to dump you again. Dallas lived up to its high expectations last week when it clobbered the Rams. The Chargers found another way to lose a close one and saw what could easily be a 3-0 record drop to 1-2. The lure is set. But we’re not falling for it. San Diego has played some pretty good football, led by the revived Philip Rivers. The Bolts return home after splitting two away, both in the Eastern time zone and they shouldn’t be dogs here against unreliable ‘Boys. TAKING: CHARGERS +2
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Redskins 0-3 at Raiders 1-2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s rare to see what we witnessed on Monday night when the Raiders were simply outclassed in a 37-21 defeat to the Broncos. Despite the lopsided score, there was no quit in this Oakland team. There was a sense that the culture in the Bay Area is about to change. Pride was being displayed. It’s a step in the right direction. Conversely, there is trouble in Washington. There are reports that RG3 and the coaching staff are at odds. More importantly, the ’Skins have been awful defensively, ranking 31st against both the run and pass. Give us the home points against a struggling, winless squad. TAKING: RAIDERS +3
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Eagles 1-2 at Broncos 3-0FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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That Eagles things was short-lived now, wasn’t it? Philly’s scary offence lasted approximately one half, in the season opener. Denver’s offence is the real deal. That said, this is the NFL and double-digit wins do not keep coming this easily. The Broncos will get their points but the Denver defence has not faced a legit offence quite yet after facing a depleted Ravens team, the punchless and winless Giants and the offensively anchored Raiders. The Broncos have been able to mask the absence of Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller. Philly can put up some points here. Note that rested teams (10 days) are 4-0 vs. spread so far. TAKING: EAGLES +10½
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Patriots 2-1 at Falcons 1-2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After facing rookie quarterbacks Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel in the first two weeks and then the now benched Josh Freeman last week, this will be a better test for the New England defence. Still, we’re not sure that Atlanta’s offence is up to par with the absence of Steven Jackson in the backfield and star WR Roddy White still hobbled (just 56 yards receiving this year, zero touchdowns). The Falcons’ offensive line remains a trouble spot and the Patriots’ shrewd coaching staff is capable of exploiting that weakness. Tom Brady may be getting in sync with his receiving corps after slow start. Atlanta may be headed the other way. TAKING: PATRIOTS +2

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Mike O'ConnorFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BUFFALO (+3) 22 Baltimore 19FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ravens enter this game 2-1 after beating the Texans last week at home 30-9 in a game that featured a couple of big plays that went for TD’s on special teams and defense. Offensively, the Ravens have not been very good but they have played a schedule of teams that are very good defensively so they really haven’t been as bad as they may seem (they are averaging 4.38 YPPL versus opponents that allow 4.67 YPPL). Outside of the season opening loss to the Broncos, the Ravens defense has played well. They have played the run particularly well as they are giving up a full yard less per attempt than their opponents are gaining on average (3.53 to 4.53). As well as they have played recently on defense, they have not been able to run the ball at all offensively as they are averaging just 78 yards per game at 2.76 yards per carry and with all of the losses to the WR/TE group this year they have been below average passing the ball as well.
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Buffalo comes in to this game off of a loss to the Jets where the stats don’t really tell the whole story. They were beaten worse than the final 7 point margin would indicate as the Jets rolled up 515 yards of offense at 7.5 yards per play but also committed 20 penalties for 168 yards, 2 of which took away Jets turnovers. While the Bills have some things to clean up, that loss should amplify focus this week and I expect a better performance against the Ravens. Despite their divergent outcomes last week, season numbers indicate that these two teams are closely matched. My ratings, including the Bills home field advantage, have Buffalo favored here by about a point. The Bills also qualify in a very good 177-82-5 situation, which has gone 24-9-2 the last 7 years. I like the Bills plus the points.
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Indianapolis (-7.5) 25 JACKSONVILLE 15SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis comes into this game after a big upset of the 49ers in San Francisco as 10 point dogs. They held the 49ers to 255 total yards and 4.9 yards per play and really shut down Colin Kaepernick and the Niners passing attack. Interestingly, the Niners ran well early in the game and gained much of their yardage on their TD drive via the run but for some unknown reason only ran the ball 7 times in the second half for 13 yards in what was a competitive 13-7 game mid-way through the fourth quarter. The Colts were good enough offensively to get the job done, gaining 337 total yards and 5.1 YPPL. Despite the strong defensive performance in that game, the Colts are below average on the year so far defensively overall, and just above average on offense. The Jaguars are clearly the worst team in the league so far this year and game statistics across the board support the final scores that they have posted. Their most eye-popping stat in a number of bad ones is their 2.36 yard per carry average against opponents that have allowed 4.61 per attempt. This is a divisional game and these teams split last year with the Jags winning in Indy 22-17 in Week 3 and losing at home 27-10 in Week 10. The second game is most representative of these two teams at this point and I expect a similar outcome in this game.
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My ratings favor the Colts here by about 8.5 points and I have a couple of situations that play on them that are 125-51-4 and 638-465-40. The Colts are coming off a big win last week and face a tough Seattle team at home next week so this could be a bit of a trap game, although it is a divisional contest. I like the Colts minus the points.
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HOUSTON (+2.5) 25 Seattle 19FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After just getting by with two close wins in the first two weeks, the Texans came crashing down hard last week with a 30-9 loss to the Ravens in Baltimore. It was a defensive game with 500 yards of total offense combined (Houston had 264 yards at 4.3 yards per play and Baltimore had 236 yards at 4.1 yards per play) with a Matt Schaub pass intercepted and returned for a Ravens TD. Baltimore also scored on a Tandon Doss punt return for a touchdown less than two minutes later. Interestingly, Baltimore had more penalty yards (77) than total offensive yards (65) in the first half but led 17-9 after the two scores. So what seems like a blowout based on the final score was a 16-9 game minus the defensive and special teams TD’s for the Ravens. Despite the big loss, the Texans maintain a solid statistical profile with an average of 389 total offensive yards per game at 5.4 yards per play while giving up an average of 249 total yards and 4.3 yards per play.
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The Seahawks has an easy day with the Jaguars as they completely dominated from the start, leading 24-0 at halftime and cruising to a 45-17 win, allowing the Jaguars only 20 yards rushing and 44 yards passing in the first half. Overall, the Seahawks are impressive in gaining an average of 382 yards per game at 6.0 yards per play while allowing 239 yards and 4.3 yards per play. Their weak point, offensively, has been their rush offense where they are averaging 3.98 yards per carry against a schedule of opponents that give up an average of 4.52 per attempt and that plays into one of the strengths of the Texans team (allowing 3.26 per attempt versus a schedule that gains 3.61). The same can be said of the rushing offense in this matchup as the Texans run for an average of 4.89 versus their opponents average defensively of 4.32 while the Seahawks give up an average of 3.99 yards per rush to a schedule of teams that have run for only 3.72 yards per attempt.
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I like the matchups that the Texans have in a few areas here and my ratings have this game at about even. In addition, this is a 10AM PST start and since 2000 the four West coast teams playing at this time have a combined 40-81 record. The Seahawks are playing the first of two consecutive 10AM PST start time games as they travel to Indianapolis next week while the Texans apply to a very good 232-141-17 situation and Dr. Bob has also added a 10-29-1 situation that plays against the Seahawks in this spot. Seattle may also be without their starting tackles here and that presents a significant matchup problem facing J.J. Watt and an aggressive Texans defense. I like the Texans plus the points.
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CLEVELAND (+4) 17 Cincinnati 20FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati won a wild game last week against the Packers where they led 14-0, then trailed 30-14 before finally winning 34-30. The game featured multiple big play turnovers, one of which ultimately decided the game. The Bengals defense did a good job of shutting down Aaron Rodgers, holding him to just 217 yards at 4.6 yards per pass while sacking him 4 times and picking him off twice. Their pass defense has really been their strength so far this year as they are allowing 5.82 yards per pass to teams that average 6.81 per attempt. Otherwise they have been about an average team in all other areas. The Browns are coming off of a 31-27 win in Minnesota as a 7 point dog in a game where they started a new QB and had just traded away their starting RB. Cleveland is playing really well on defense so far this year, giving up just 302 total yards per game at 4.3 YPPL and giving up about 21 points per game to teams that average scoring 25. This game really looks to be a defensive battle so I like the Under 41.5 in this game as matchup analysis predicts significantly below average offensive efficiency on both sides. I have situations going both ways in this game and my ratings have the Bengals favored in this spot by about 3 points so I don’t have much of an opinion here but I will lean to the Browns plus the points.
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Chicago (+3) 25 DETROIT 26FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears come into this game undefeated after beating the Steelers 40-23 last Sunday night in Pittsburgh where they were outgained by 199 yards but benefitted from a +5 turnover differential. Chicago has been playing better this year offensively as they have gained 5.54 YPPL against a schedule of teams allowing 5.32 YPPL and the fact that their turnover margin has been very good (+6 in net turnovers gained) has certainly helped. However, their pass defense has not been good as they are allowing an average of 294 yards and 8.1 yards per pass. This week they face an explosive passing attack in the Lions, who beat the Redskins in Washington last week (27-20) with a very good pass offense that put up 378 yards at 8.8 yards per attempt. In fact, the Lions this year overall have been very good passing the ball, averaging 8.13 yards against opponents that have allowed 7.40 yards per attempt. The injury this week to WR Nate Burleson will hurt their cause as he had played well so far this year and was a leader on the offense.
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Matchup analysis forecasts good passing advantages for both offenses here with limited rushing success for the Lions, although it looks like Reggie Bush will be back and the Bears will be without DT Henry Melton which should allow them to run the ball a bit better than their numbers suggest. The Bears qualify in a 638-465-40 situation and my line on this game is Lions -4 so the numbers and the situation are going in opposite directions which will lead me to pass on the game but lean slightly to the Bears plus the points.
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TAMPA BAY (-2.5) 21 Arizona 18FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals enter this game coming off of a 31-7 loss to the Saints in New Orleans in Week 3 where they also were outperformed statistically by a wide margin as they gained 245 total yards at 4.5 YPPL to 426 yards and 6.0 YPPL for the Saints. QB Carson Palmer did not play well throwing for just 4.1 yards per attempt while being sacked 6 times and being picked off twice. Beating the Saints in New Orleans is a difficult task as the Cards were outclassed in this game and so far this season overall they have been a below average team from the line of scrimmage. They also suffered a cluster injury this past week with several linebackers getting banged up and as a result they find themselves scrambling to assemble a unit.
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The Bucs have been a team in turmoil so far this year, losing 2 close games that they should have won before losing in New England last week 23-3. QB Josh Freeman has been replaced by rookie Mike Glennon, who was not impressive in preseason and who I did not have rated very highly coming out of college. In addition, WR Vincent Jackson sustained a rib injury last week and if he is limited in any way, this offense could be in serious trouble.
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Arizona qualifies in a 76-27 situation while also benefitting from a negative 46-108-3 situation that plays against Tampa Bay. It is also interesting to note that this is the second consecutive 10AM start for the Cardinals after they did not perform very well in this time slot last week. My ratings, adjusted for QB change, have the Bucs favored by about 5 points and my sense is that the Bucs will rally here a bit around the new rookie QB. With a number of question marks in this game and line value and situations going opposite directions, I will lean slightly with the Bucs.
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NY Giants (+4) 19 KANSAS CITY 22FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants come into this contest off of an unbelievably poor showing against the Carolina Panthers in a game that they needed to win to prevent an 0-3 start. They were dominated in every way possible in this game as it was one of those days where nothing worked and there were no fortunate bounces for the Giants. The Giants could only muster 150 yards of total offense at 3.0 yards per play while the Panthers rolled up 403 yards and 5.6 YPPL. Eli Manning was sacked 7 times and pressured relentlessly. He really never had a chance in this game with the offensive line playing as poorly as they did and was eventually replaced to prevent injury. Outside of the poor pass protection, the Giants have had no ground game to speak of as they are averaging 2.79 yards per attempt versus opponents that average giving up 3.44 yards per carry. Including this poor showing for the Giants, season numbers are still above average for both the offensive and defensive units.
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Kansas City, meanwhile, have had just the opposite start to their year with a 3-0 record and optimism running high. They beat the Eagles in Andy Reid’s emotional return to Philadelphia last Thursday night 26-16 and will have 10 days to get ready for the Giants. The Chiefs were outperformed statistically versus the Eagles last week as they gave up 431 yards at 6.8 YPPL and gained 396 total yards at 5.3 YPPL, but were +5 in the turnover battle. Kansas City leads the league in turnover differential at +9 and face a Giants team here that has the worst turnover differential in the league at -9. Overall they have been below average statistically on offense, particularly passing the ball, and above average on defense thanks in large part to an excellent pass defense.
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Matchup analysis suggests a defensive game and I have a lean to the Under as both teams should struggle to move the ball. My number on this game is Kansas City -2.5 and I don’t have any situations that apply here. With both teams heading in opposite directions, but with the Chiefs outperforming their stats and the Giants underperforming relative to their ability, I will lean with the Giants plus the points in a low scoring game.
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OAKLAND (+3) 25 Washington 23FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redskins are a disappointing 0-3 so far this year after losing last week to the Lions at home 27-20 in a game where they did show some signs of improvement. Statistically they were competitive, giving up 441 yards at 6.7 YPPL and gaining 420 at 5.7 YPPL. They shut down Detroit’s run game (minus Reggie Bush) but were killed by the Lions passing attack, giving up 378 yards at 8.8 yards per pass. They played much better in the first half in this game but overall on the season they are averaging 4.67 offensive first half points (7 was on a defensive TD) while allowing 22.3. The Redskins are facing the bye next week and would love to get a win here against the Raiders but 0-3 teams facing a bye are just 5-12 SU and 0-3 SU and ATS in non-conference games.
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The Raiders have played better than expectations so far this year but got steamrolled last week by the Broncos on Monday night. Overall on the season they are averaging 6.0 YPPL and allowing 5.8YPPL. QB Pryor is dealing with a concussion and likely won’t play in this game so Matt Flynn should get the start but I don’t think there will be much of a passing difference, although Pryor’s ability to run will be missed by Oakland should he miss the game. The Raiders benefit from a negative 50-108-3 situation that plays against the Redskins and my numbers favor Oakland by about 3 points here. I like the Raiders plus the points.
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SAN DIEGO (+2) 27 Dallas 23FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys were very impressive last week at home in beating a Rams team that has underperformed this year. The 31-7 score was indicative of the play on the field as the Rams could only muster 232 total yards at 3.5 yards per play while the Cowboys racked up 396 total yards at 6.7 yards per play. The Cowboys ran a balanced attack, gaining 193 yards on the ground and 203 yards through the air. Even with that strong performance, Dallas is still slightly below average from an adjusted yards per play perspective so far on the season and I anticipate San Diego will be able to move the ball effectively in this matchup.
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The Chargers, meanwhile, led Tennessee 17-13 late in the game before Jake Locker led the Titans on a long TD drive to win the game with :15 seconds on the clock. While the Chargers have not been very good from the line of scrimmage this year defensively, giving up an average of 470 yards per game at 7 yards per play, they have played well on offense with my #3 ranked offensive yards per play rating. Philip Rivers has been playing much better this year, throwing for an average of 7.34 ypps against teams that allow 5.97 ypps for an average of 257 yards per game. I think that the Chargers will play well here for a few reasons. First, Dallas has not performed well off of an easy win recently. In fact, The Cowboys may enter this game with a sense of self-satisfaction off of their beating of the Rams last week as they are just 2-5 SU and 0-6 ATS off of a win of 14 or more the past 3 years. On the opposite side, I like the fact that Philip Rivers is 19-12-2 as a dog ATS and the Chargers are looking forward to playing at home after consecutive 10 AM PST start times on the road the past two weeks. In addition, San Diego qualifies in a 40-10 situation and my ratings have them favored here by about 3 points. Matchup analysis suggests a high scoring game with the Chargers being able to both run and pass effectively if they are not hindered by a couple of injuries along the offensive line. I like the Chargers here.
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ATLANTA (-2) 27 New England 22FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England played well enough to beat Tampa Bay last week, 23-3, but the final score was a bit misleading as the Bucs were more competitive in this game than the score indicates. The Patriots only had a +38 yardage differential in the game overall and the passing offense was held to just 202 yards at 5.2 yards per pass. The reality is that the Patriots are a bit lucky to be 3-0 at this point with close wins against the Bills and the Jets and now they face a step up in class with the Falcons in Atlanta. With the turnover at the WR and TE spots this season, the Patriots have struggled passing the ball as they have averaged 4.91 yards per attempt against opponents that have allowed 5.42 YPA. They have played well defensively overall so far this season, particularly against the pass where they are allowing just 188 yards per game at 5.1 YPA although they have not faced a murders row of passers in rookies Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel as well as the recently benched Josh Freeman. I expect that the Patriots will revert more towards their 2012 season pass defense numbers in this game as they face one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.
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I like Atlanta here based on the spot. This is a big game for the Falcons as they do not want to fall to 1-3 and will be playing on Sunday night football in front of a packed house in a loud, domed stadium. This should present a challenge to the young, inexperienced receivers of the Patriots as communication issues could become more pronounced. The Falcons are very good off of a loss at home under HC Mike Smith with 15-1 SU and 11-4-1 ATS records, winning by an average of 12.8 points per game. I also have a 17-4 situation that plays on Atlanta and my line favors the Falcons here by about 4.5 points. I like the Falcons minus the small number.
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NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) 28 Miami 18FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami enters this contest with a 3-0 record after rallying late to beat the Falcons 27-23 in a game where they were outplayed for most of the day. Final stats show that they lost the total yardage battle (377 at 5.5 YPPL for Atlanta to 286 at 5.3 YPPL for Miami), were -5 in sack differential, and the Falcons had a decisive advantage in time of possession (37:09 to 22:51). However, with a shot to win it late, Ryan Tannehill came through for the Dolphins. Overall on the season the Dolphins are averaging a -47 total yardage differential while giving up 374 yards per game.
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The Saints are also 3-0 but have a much better statistical profile with a +110 average yardage advantage per game while gaining 5.97 YPPL against opponents that allow an average of 5.54 YPPL. The concern with the Saints is always their defense and so far this season overall defensive numbers are much improved as they are allowing 296 total yards and 5.4 YPPL per game. New Orleans is a very difficult venue to play in as the Saints are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in Sunday or Monday night games since 2006 winning by an average of 15.84 points per game. The Saints also qualify in a 26-6 Monday night situation and my line on this game is Saints -8 so I do see some value here. I like the Saints minus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Giants +4½ over KANSAS CITY

The Giants are 0-3 and have been a complete dumpster fire the past two weeks in blowout losses to both Denver and Carolina. After an 0-2 start, New York went into Carolina last week and took a massive amount of money. They never stood a chance in what has to be considered one of the most humiliating losses in Tom Coughlin’s career. All those folks that wagered on the Giants last week will be quick to bet against them this week. The G-Men’s stock has hit rock bottom.

The Chiefs have had extra days to prepare after going into Philadelphia last Thursday night and easily defeating the Eagles in a game that Philly Chip was schooled by Andy Reid. The Chiefs are now 3-0 and their stock hasn’t been higher in a very long time. That sets this one up as a classic buy-low, sell high scenario and we’re all over it. You see, the oddsmakers know the Chiefs are overvalued and have set this number at an appealing margin. Let’s not forget that the Chiefs played Jacksonville in the opener, scored just 17 points at home against Dallas in Week 2 and had outstanding field position and five takeaways in Philadelphia last week. 90% of the teams in this league would’ve scored at least 45 points against Philly under those circumstances. Alex Smith never throws deep and he doesn't take a chance on throwing into coverage. That has left the always covered Dwayne Bowe high and dry. The Giants are not going to roll over again. You may read about internal issues regarding the Giants in that many players are frustrated about their roles. Don’t let that influence you. This is a well-coached New York team with one of the best QB’s in the game. Now that QB and humiliated squad is getting 4½ points against a QB that could not move the ball against a brutally bad defense in Philadelphia. The time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off and that’s precisely the situation here. Giants outright.


JACKSONVILLE +9 over Indianapolis

Yeah, we know it’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Jaguars. This is a team that can’t move five yards and that have scored a measly 28 points in three weeks. 14 of those points came in garbage time last week in Seattle in the second half with the Jags down by about 100 points and the Seahawks not caring. However, this week the Jags get Blaine Gabbert and TE Marcedes Lewis back and Maurice Jones Drew says his ankle is 100%. Still, this isn’t about that.

This one is all about fading the Colts after they went into San Francisco last week and beat up on the 49ers as a 10½-point dog. You may have to go back 50 years for the last time you saw an NFL team go from a 10½-point dog to a 9-point choice in one week. That’s a 19½-point turnaround in a week but what in reality it’s a complete overreaction to both Indy’s success and Jacksonville’s ineptitude. Wagering on the NFL isn’t about trying to figure out which team is supposed to win or breaking down X’s and O’s. You can listen to all those experts on Sunday morning do that. That’s if you can understand what Shannon Sharpe is saying because dude speaks with marbles in his mouth. Wagering on this sport is all about finding the right spot and taking advantage of a favorable number. That applies here. The Jags almost always play their best against the Colts. They defeated them in three straight seasons with the point spread being four or less in five of those six games. Additionally, the Colts have the Seahawks on deck next week back in Indianapolis after going into San Fran last week. This one sets up as another buy-low, sell high opportunity and it’s also a classic sandwich game for the favorite. You will see a bunch of different numbers out there but at Sports Interaction, we see a +9 today (Friday) so if you’re on board for this one, bet it sooner rather than later.   


TAMPA BAY -2½ over Arizona

Josh Freeman is out and the third QB taken (after E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith) in the June draft is in. The Buccaneers are switching gears and starting ex-North Carolina State quarterback Mike Glennon and there is going to be lots of talk about whether or not the move was a personal one by HC Greg Schiano. Schiano has never liked Freeman and this could be viewed as a desperate move to save his own job. This one has a similar feel to last week’s Cleveland at Minnesota game in which nobody wanted any part of the Brownies. We warned you about fading Cleveland and we’re warning you again about fading the Bucs. Mike Glennon is a rookie yes, but he’s also a talent that backed up Russell Wilson with the Wolfpack before inheriting the starting assignment as a junior and ultimately throwing 62 TD passes in two years. Glennon may not shine but he doesn’t have to. The Bucs are 0-3 but they are a “good” 0-3 after losing to the Jets on a bizarre last drive in Week 1, losing to the Saints in Week 2 by just two points and falling to New England, 23-3 on the road last week. That final score in New England was not as bad as it looks, as the Bucs had just 35 less yards of offense than the Patriots. Defensively, the Buccaneers have been outstanding against both the run and pass as no one has rushed for more than 65 yards on them and they have only allowed four passing scores this year despite facing Drew Brees and Tom Brady. After facing Brees and Brady, facing Carson Palmer and the Cardinals should appear in slow motion. The three teams that the Bucs have faced are a combined 8-1.

Arizona lost to St. Louis. Enough said. They also lost to the Saints by a score of 31-7, the same Saints team that the Bucs lost by two points to and were in a position to win in the final minutes. Everything was supposed to be different in Arizona with Carson Palmer but it looks like the same-old from this angle. In Week 1, Palmer threw for 327 yards and two TDs. That dropped to 248 yards and one touchdown in Week 2 and 187 yards and no TDs last week. Nobody likes diminishing returns. This Cardinals offense remains sorely limited with an ineffective rushing game and little more than Larry Fitzgerald in the passing equation. This is also the Cardinals third road in four weeks. With that, we’re suggesting you ignore the supposed chaos in Tampa Bay. The media blows everything out of proportion. From what we’ve seen so far, the Bucs are a quality football team with one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Cardinals are a bad football that is showing no signs of improving.


SAN DIEGO +110 over Dallas

The Chargers have been one of the league’s most frustrating teams to bet on for years. Coming into this season, bettors probably had less trust on the Bolts than any other team in the NFL and they have not gained back that trust yet. With that, we now get perhaps the most undervalued club in the league taking back a small price at home. The Chargers are 1-2 but should’ve defeated the Texans in their opener and outplayed Tennessee last week on the road in a three-point loss. This team has lost in the final minute of both games and they also went into Philly in Week two and defeated the Eagles when not many gave them a chance. Oh, and Phillip Rivers is back. Rivers has thrown for 18 TD’s and over 800 yards while throwing just one pick. That’s after two playing, Houston and Tennessee, two very good defenses.

Dallas has defeated the Giants and St. Louis. Combined, that pair has one win and it came over Arizona. The ‘Boys’ lone defeat came at Kansas City to a team that can’t move forward most of the time. Dallas had five takeaways versus the G-Men, allowed 31 points and won by just five. Sure, they blew out the Rams 31-7 last week but in case you missed Thursday’s game, the Rams are horrible and gutless. Furthermore, Dallas has Denver, Washington and Philadelphia up next over the next three weeks. The Cowboys big win last week combined with their 2-1 record, which could easily be 3-0 has them overvalued. Their defense, which is very average but has not been exposed yet because they’ve played St. Louis and Kansas City, now faces a rejuvenated Philip Rivers, who has his confidence restored. A home game for the Chargers in a favorable spot adds to their appeal. Wrong side favored.


ATLANTA -2½ over New England

The Patriots are 3-0, they’ve allowed an average of just 11 points per game and they’re getting points but we’re not buying their success for a minute. This is the worst 3-0 team in a long time. In fact, one could argue that New England was fortunate to defeat both the Jets and Bills as 13 and 9½-point favorites respectively. The Pats other win came against Tampa Bay. When we look at the Patriots, we see a defense that has faced rookies E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith, followed by a game against Josh Freeman. That’s the trifecta of inexperience and/or ineffectiveness. The QB they’ll face here is none other than Matt Ryan, who is considered one of the best in the game with the numbers to prove it.

The Falcons are 1-2 and come into this one grossly undervalued. The Dirty Birds losses have come against quality teams in New Orleans and in Miami. Incidentally, both those losses were complete heartbreakers, as Atlanta lost them both in the final minute and probably should’ve won them both. Their 31-24 win over St. Louis is a flattering score to the Rams, as Atlanta was up 21-0 about five minutes into the game and lead 24-7 at the half. The Falcons have been almost unbeatable at home over the past few seasons and many of those games were against much better competition than they’ll face here. The market has the Patriots wrongly priced here. They are not close to being one of the best teams in the league, yet they are priced like it here. Matt Ryan will carve this defense up and Tom Brady doesn’t have the horses to keep pace.

Pass MLB & CFL

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Wunderdog

Kansas City at New York Giants
Pick: New York Giants +5

I don't think a team could be looking any uglier than the New York Giants do after three weeks. They were supposed to be a playoff caliber team, but have started 0-3 with their last loss an incredibly embarrassing 38-0 beat down. While Peyton Manning continues to enter the record book, brother Eli has been quite the contrary with eight INTs through three games. And, last week for good measure, he was sacked seven times. How do they survive a Chiefs team that has reversed their fortune from a 2-14 team a year ago, to start 3-0? It's called the contrarian NFL, and as expected, bettors line up all over the Chiefs here. But, the Giants aren't as bad as they appear and the Chiefs aren't as good as they appear. The thing muddying our view? Turnovers! Kansas City is leading the league in turnover differential at +9 while the Giants are in the basement at -9! Turnovers are largely luck and tend to regress to the mean. So, there is a lot of line value here thanks to whacky luck. Tom Coughlin has been on the sidelines a long time, and seeing his team hit rock bottom a week ago is not going to sit well. With the Giants season is basically on the line, I look for a different team to take the field in this one. Teams that were shutout in their last game, and playing as a road dog have covered 64% of all games since 1989. Teams that lost their last game by 31 or more points cover 58% of the time in their next game as well. Manning is certainly capable, and you know he can't wait to get back on the field here. The Giants have taken the last five in this series and KansasCity is an awful 0-6 ATS the past three seasons as home chalk. Under Coughlin, the Giants are 37-25 ATS as a dog and 45-30 ATS in road games and 17-8 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better. I think the Giants offense gets redemption here and scores big. Play contrarian. Take New York with the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Chip Chirimbes

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns    
Play: Cleveland Browns +4

We are coming off wins with both these clubs last week and this week we'll stay with the team that played the 'better' game. The Bengals had their ups and downs against the Packers last week, jumping out to a big lead then falling behind by twp scores before picking up a fumble and scored the winning touchdown. After the trading of Trent Richarson the Browns responded like true professionals and beat the Vikings in Minnesota. Although Cincinnati has won seven of the last nine in this series the odds makers have put this line small enough to give the Browns a chance to win on the field.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Steve Janus

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos    
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +11

The Eagles have came back to earth after their impressive 33-27 win at Washington on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Back-to-back losses against the Chargers and Chiefs at home have certainly lowered the expectations. Losing to two teams projected to finish behind the Broncos in the AFC West standings certainly makes it that much harder to back Philadelphia on the road.

I’m not a fan of betting against Peyton Manning no matter what the situation, but this is one spot where I feel there's too much value to pass up.

A lot of people forget that the Eagles first three games have come in a span of 11 days. They haven’t had a whole lot of practice time to fix the wrinkles in their new offense. They will have had a full nine days to prepare for this game. Denver on the other hand is playing on short rest and will have just five days to get ready for the Eagles offense. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when their previous game was played on Monday Night Football.

I know the Broncos come into this game with the league’s top ranked run defense (43.3 ypg), but you have to remember that’s a direct result of the offense getting out to big leads and the other team abandoning the run. It’s the same reason why they rank 30th in the NFL against the pass (327.0 ypg). Philadelphia is going to get theirs on the ground and I’m not so sure this Denver defense is going to be able to keep them in check. It might not be enough for the Eagles to pull off the upset, but it certainly gives them a great opportunity to cover this spread.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Carlo Campanella

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars    
Play: Indianapolis Colts -7½

The Colts looked shaky during their first 2 games, but took a big step forward last Sunday when beating the 49ers, 27-7, in San Francisco. Expect that to be a huge confidence builder for this young Colts team, as they play the worst team in the NFL this Sunday at Jacksonville. Colts QB Andrew Luck is 2-0 as a road favorite in his career, including an easy 27-10 win in Jacksonville last season. This year's Jacksonville team looks just as bad following their 0-3 opening to this season, losing ALL 3 games by 10 points or more while getting beat in those 3 games by a combined 92 to 28 points! Colts continue to roll this Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Dave Price

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns    
Play: Cleveland Browns +5

This is a sandwich game for Cincinnati. It's coming off a big upset win over Green Bay and has New England on deck. As a result, it won't give the Browns the attention they deserve. You want to play against favorites with a winning record that check in off an upset win at home as doing so has produced a 70-33 ATS record since 1983. This system is 8-1 ATS the last three seasons and 19-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Bengals have been a poor investment in division play at 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12. They are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against Cleveland. Plus, the underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Browns have won or lost by five points or less in eight of the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Alex Smart

NY Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs    
Play: NY Giants +5

Alot of pundits are surprised by the Giants 0-3 start this season. After all this team is still supposed to be and elite , experienced squad with a top tier QB (Eli Manning) at the helm of the offense. After getting smashed 38-0 last time out, many bettors and prognosticators are jumping ship. I however, believe, that Tom Coughlins crew are to proud and strong to take their last outcome sitting down. You have to remember these are pros, and everyone of these guys were stars growing up. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting that will become evident this week, vs a over rated Kansas City team that has looked a little better than their true talent ratio, thanks to a +9 turnover ratio. Key Trend: NFL sides that were shutout in their last game, and are now playing as a road underdog have covered 64% of all games played since 1989.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Art Aronson

Seahawks vs. Texans
Play: Under 43

The Seattle Seahawks are the toast the NFC right now as the team is 3-0 after a 45-17 beat down of Jacksonville last week. Seattle has been downright dominant on both sides of the ball but especially defense where Seattle is allowing an NFL-best 241.7 yards per game, and its 10 forced turnovers are tied for second-most. It has given up a league-low 27 points. The Houston Texans meanwhile are coming off 30-9 loss embarrassment in Baltimore last weekend and are 2-1 on the season. Arian Foster rushed only 12 times for 54 yards last week while Schaub finished 25 of 35 for 194 yards. Houston had 264 total yards after averaging 450.5 over its first two games. Houston still has the league's second-ranked defensive unit that allows an average of 249.0 yards per game. Where the Seahawks have had a field offensively at home the last two weeks I expect the team to struggle a little bit on the road in a tough place like Houston. The Seahawks scored just 12 points in the teams other road game in Carolina. Look for a game dominated by the run on both sides leading to a lower point total. Take a close look at the "under."

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Sean Higgs

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons    
Play: Atlanta Falcons -1

As of this writing I am seeing the Falcons as -1 and as high as -2 point favorites in this Sunday Night match-up.

I will tell you right from the jump here that when I did my division break-downs for this season, I had the Dolphins ending the Patriots reign at the top of the AFC East. Basically, I just feel that New England has not done enough to get enough talent around Brady this year. Let’s be honest. Yes, they are 3-0. They had a come from behind victory on the road over the Bills and a rookie QB. Then on a short week, they barely eke out a win over another rookie QB and a Jets team that I think has some of the worse offensive skill position players in the league. And last week they get by a Tampa team that was clearly fed up and tired of their QB, as they just benched him for the remainder of the year in favor of their newly drafted QB. So what exactly have the Pats done? I don’t think much of anything. Even if Gronk or Amendola are healthy enough to play, I just can’t see New England getting a win here.

Now we move on the Falcons. I guess a bit of disappointing start for them. They had a close loss to the Saints on the road, and they were dealt a real tough one last week over Miami. They were missing some key guys last week in that road game, but I feel even at full strength, the Dolphins would have given them all they could handle. So Brady and the Pats come to the Dome where HC Mike Smith has done nothing but win here 34-7 SU record during the regular season. A lot of that credit is due to his quarterback Matt Ryan. He is pretty much blessed with one of the top WR combo’s in the league with Roddy White and Julio Jones. Add in a Hall of Famer safety blanket at TE in Tony Gonzalez and this offense is explosive, especially when playing at home.

My Final Thoughts

The Falcons do have a couple injuries on both sides of the ball. But that is no excuse here. They are 1-2 on the year. They didn’t lose their 2nd game last year until December. This is pretty much a ‘must win’ type game for them. Matt Ryan is a huge step up in class for the Patriots who faced two rookies and now a benchwarmer their last three games. Finally, let’s not forget that for as great as Brady has been in his career, this offense has yet to put up even 24 points on the year. I will take the small home favorites here and back the ATLANTA FALCONS -1 as my Sunday night selection.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Jeff Alexander

Eagles / Broncos Under 58

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high. Philadelphia will benefit from nine days of preparation time while Denver will be hurt by just five days to prepare. Philly's extra time will allow it to be much more prepared for Denver's passing attack. Denver's lack of time will make it difficult for it to be ready for the Eagles' potent running game. Philly's ability to run the football (aka milking the clock) will go a long way toward this one staying under the number. The under is 8-3 in the Eagles' last 11 road games. Philly is 19-7 under after giving up 25 points or more in two straight games. It is also 15-4 under in road games following a home loss or 10 points or more.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Joseph D'Amico

Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans    
Play: Seattle Seahawks -1

Seattle continues to get bettors paid as they have covered all three games this season and 10 of their L11 going back to last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory in their L11 wins is a whopping 21 PPG. The defense leads the NFL in scoring, allowing a paltry 9 PPG and total defense, yielding 241.1 YPG. All this and their stop unit has forced 10 TOs already. Houston has crushed bettors, going 0-3 ATS . The Texans were embarrassed last week in their 30-9 loss to the Ravens, a game in which they had 14 penalties, zero offensive TDs, and allowed Baltimore to score both a defensive TD and a ST's TD. The Houston "D" is giving up 27.3 PPG. On offense, Matt Schaub just isn't looking in sync with 6 TDs and 4 INTs. His top receiver, Andre Johnson is listed as a game-time decision after bruising his shin LW. RBs, Foster and Tate have just 1 rushing TD between them. The combo of 'Hawks, Wilson and Jackson have teamed up for 793 YP, 7 TDs, and 1 INT. Work horse, Marshawn Lynch has 210 YR and 2 scores. The offense is improving with each passing week while their defense is hard-hitting with 5 forced fumbles and frustrating to opposing QB's with another 5 INTs. The Seahawks are 13-3 ATS their L16 games played vs. teams with a winning record, 5-1 ATS their L6 games played in September, 5-0 ATS their L5 road games, and 25-9-1 ATS their L35 games overall. Take Seattle.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Bill Biles

Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders    
Play: Washington Redskins -3

Rg3 has been getting better with his legs every week. I believe the Redskins are a better team than the 0-3 record indicates, and I believe their season is on the line this week. They cannot afford to go 0-4. Look for the Redskins to dig deep and put out a much needed win on the west coast.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Hollywood Sports

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: New York Giants

Take the New York Giants plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs. It may be tempting to take the undefeated Kansas City team (3-0) in this spot against the winless New York Giants (0-3) but that avenue is likely to be Fool's Gold in this situation. The Giants have been saddled by a -9 turnover margin while the Chiefs have yet to turn the ball over while amassing a strong +9 turnover margin. But both these numbers are outliers -- and any regression back to the mean in this game will likely see a game decided by a field goal. New York gave up in the second half of their ugly 38-0 loss in Carolina last Sunday -- but this team always seems to pick themselves off the mat the week after they really should have in the Tom Coughlin regime. I have seen it too often to bet against it now -- and the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Kansas City may suffer a letdown after their emotional 26-16 win in Philadelphia in head coach Andy Reid's return to his former stomping grounds. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 10 home games, KC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games. Take the Giants plus the points in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Marc Lawrence

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Who would have ever believed it? The Chiefs: 3-0 under Alex Smith and the Giants: 0-3 under Eli Manning. The bottom line here, folks, is one team is playing and the other is not. And according to our mighty machine, we can expect more of the same today. That?s because 3-0 non-division home favorites of 7 or less points are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in Game Fours of the season. Not to mention, 3-0 teams hosting 0-3 teams are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS since 1981. Granted, the G-Men are 7-0 ATS in their last seven clashes with KC but in none of those games was their defense as bad as it is today (383 YPG). Then again, Andy Reid is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in his last ten meetings against the Giants, and also 6-1 SUATS off a win in games in which New York is off a loss. No surprise here today when another superior AFC squad squashes an NFC foe. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Jesse Schule

Redskins at Raiders
Pick: Over

This is a Free NFL play on the Redskins @ Raiders to go Over the total. The Redskins had no trouble moving the ball on offense last week, but after a costly fumble from RGIII and a touchdown taken off the board by the replay officials, Washington lost 27-20, and the total fell just short of the number. The Raiders also showed some scoring prowess in a losing effort, but the Broncos blew the doors off in a 37-21 Monday night blowout. Whether it's Terrelle Pryor or Matt Flynn running the offense this week, the Raiders match up against a Redskins defense that is terrible against the pass as well as the run. Washington has allowed an average of 330 yards in the air, and 155 rushing yards per game, one of the reasons for it's 0-3 start. The Raiders allowed Denver to rack up over 500 yards of total offense in their loss on Monday, and coming off a short week, I'd expect them to struggle again this week. RGIII is likely to throw caution to the wind, as there's no sense playing safe to avoid injury if the losses continue to pile up. Don't be surprised to see him take off and run a little more this week, and he could have a monster game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Fezzik

NY Jets +3.5

I just adjusted my power rating way up on the Jets.  The pure numbers say this team is actually a contender, gaining over 5 yards per play, giving up a league leading 4.3. The math guys will ALL bet the Jets.........grab the 3.5, it's sure to disappear!

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