Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Oakland at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 5-2 record in Mike Pelfrey's last 7 home starts. Minnesota is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.860; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.639
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+150); Over

Game 953-954: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 14.526; San Francisco (Petit) 15.901
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Under

Game 955-956: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.575; Philadelphia (Lee) 13.846
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under

Game 957-958: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 13.978; Miami (Fernandez) 15.051
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-110); Over

Game 959-960: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 16.150; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.246
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under

Game 961-962: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.955; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.126
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+155); Over

Game 963-964: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 13.818; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.040
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over

Game 965-966: Kansas City at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.179; Cleveland (Kazmir) 16.407
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under

Game 967-968: LA Angels at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 16.179; Toronto (Dickey) 15.048
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-105); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.615; Baltimore (Feldman) 16.188
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-130); Over

Game 971-972: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 15.035; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.484
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Over

Game 973-974: Oakland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.632; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.508
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Under

Game 975-976: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.355; White Sox (Quintana) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Over

Game 977-978: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 14.863; Seattle (Maurer) 13.598
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+125); Under

Game 979-980: Pittsburgh at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 14.071; Texas (Garza) 15.427
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under

WNBA

Phoenix at Chicago
The Sky look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. Chicago is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8)

Game 601-602: Atlanta at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 108.712; Connecticut 107.364
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.982; Chicago 121.154
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8; 161
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

Kyle Hunter

Los Angeles Dodgers -136

Patrick Corbin has been one of baseball's best pitchers this year, but those who have been paying close attention will notice that he has been wearing down of late. Corbin is a young pitcher who has never thrown this many innings before, and it is starting to show. He has been hit hard in two of his last three outings, and he his road ERA is almost 4 now. The Dodgers are a much better team than Arizona, and Ryu has been great at home (ERA of just above 2). The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games against Arizona. Take the Dodgers here.

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Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs +160

It is hard not to like the Cubs as such large underdogs when they have one of their best pitchers on the mound. Jeff Samardzija has a 3.50 ERA on the road, and the Cubs have a winning record of 7-6 in those 13 starts. Mike Leake has been torched recently, posting a 6.38 ERA in his last three starts and the Reds are 1-2 in those games.

With Leake pitching as poorly as he has, I expect the Cubs to build on their four run per game scoring average put up in their past seven games. The Reds have struggled against division opponents, batting just .240 so Samardzija should be able to put together another big game. There is simply too much value on Chicago to pass up today.

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Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies +130

Colorado has a strong offense, 11th in baseball in runs scored, 5th in batting average and 4th in slugging. Starter Juan Nicasio is undervalued, with an 8-7 record. He’s a decent strikeout pitcher with good control. He is also 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA against San Francisco. He faces a light hitting Giants team that is terrible on offense and appears to have packed it in. The Giants are 8-17 in their last 25 home games. San Fran righty Yusmeiro Petit has always struggled against the Rockies, with a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings against them allowing 30 hits and 11 walks, so grab the dog.

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Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers -152

We cashed a nice free play with Detroit last night and we jump on them again tonight as they fit a road warrior system that has won 10 of the last 11 times. Play on road favorites at -140 or higher that won last night a a road favorite of 140 or higher by 5 or more runs, if they had 10 or more hits, and their opponent had 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. Detroit won big last night and they are 26-8 as a road favorite from -150 to -175. Chicago has lost 17 of 24 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. Detroit has A. Sanchez going and he has been solid on the road with a 2.84 road era and he has better numbers overall than Chicago lefty Quintana. So we will back Detroit tonight.

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Ray Monohan

Kansas City Royals -113

In this closing game of the series the Royals should have an advantage with James Shields on the mound. I say should because Shields gave up a whopping 10ER (14R) in his last start against Detroit - OUCH! He has some ugly starts his season but none have come against Cleveland. In two starts against the Indians he has given up 4 ER in 10 innings and he was so bad the last time out you have to expect a rebound fatigue was likely not a factor as Shields has 6 straight seasons of more than 200IP. Take him and the Royals over the Indians with brittle Scott Kazmir on the hill even though he struck out a season high 12 Mets in his last start, again regression to the mean in your favor.

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Justin Bay

Red Sox vs. Rays     Total Over 8

Ryan Dempster
- Season vs. Rays: 13.0 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, .217 OBA
- Away: 4.38 ERA, .274 OBA
- August: 6.75 ERA, .283 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, .250 OBA
- Post All Star: 6.08 ERA, .277 OBA
- Rays hitters vs. Dempster in his career: .198 BA

Alex Cobb
- Season vs. BOS: 5.29 ERA, .258 OBA
- Home: 2.93 ERA, .226 OBA
- August: 2.19 ERA, .209 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, .318 OBA
- Post All Star: 2.93 ERA, .231 OBA
- Red Sox hitters vs. Cobb in his career: .247 BA

Back the OVER in this one with both pitchers struggling during the season against each other. Dempster has been awful lately and the Rays will put up runs quick at home. The Red Sox are the best hitting team in the league which explains why the Rays Ace has struggled this year against them.


Cubs / Reds Over 8

Jeff Samardzija
- Season vs. CIN: 4.13 ERA, .284 OBA
- Away: 3.50 ERA, .224 OBA
- August: 5.54 ERA, .288 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, .346 OBA
- Post All Star: 4.71 ERA, .266 OBA
- Reds hitters vs. Samardzija in his career: .258 BA

Mike Leake
- Season vs. CHC: 2.18 ERA, .256 OBA
- Home: 3.92 ERA, .252 OBA
- August: 6.44 ERA, .298 OBA
- Last Start: 2.35 ERA, .185 OBA
- Post All Star Break: 4.95 ERA, .292 OBA
- Cubs hitters vs. Leake in his career: .328 BA

Take the OVER in this with both pitchers struggling since the All Star Break. Samardzija has been knocked around a little bit by the Reds and Leake has been awful lately. Cubs are putting up runs in the past few games which is a surprise.

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Art Aronson

Tigers / White Sox Under 8

Anibal Sanchez (13-7, 2.61 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Sanchez gave up one run off seven hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over the Royals in his last outing. The right-hander has how allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last ten starts and will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that he's pretty much dominated the White Sox in two starts vs. them already this season, going 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Sanchez will bring his very respectable 2.83 ERA road record to throw opposite Jose Quintana (7-6, 3.70 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out four over seven innings, earning a loss in his team's 3-1 setback to the Orioles on Thursday. Quintana for the most part has been as solid as the White Sox could hope for this season though and does own a decent 3.65 ERA home record. Like the rest of his rotation, Quintana has been the victim of poor support this year, getting backed by just five total runs over his last four starts. Note that Quintana has also enjoyed success vs. his opponent today, 2-0 with a solid 3.66 ERA in three starts vs. the Tigers this year. For the most part, MLB is all about the starting pitching and there's no question that these two competent hurlers will be duelling into the latter frames. As a result, consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup.

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Bruce Marshall

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Kansas City Royals

The Royals signaled their intentions of staying in the AL wild card race in Tuesday night's win at Cleveland. Now KC looks to snatch the rubber game of this midweek set behind James Shields, who had gone had gone 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA over a five-start stretch before getting hit hard in Friday's 16-2 loss to Detroit. Meanwhile, Cleveland starter Scott Kazmir has been erratic, failing to win back-to-back decisions since July 30-August 4.

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Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis CardinalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With 177 innings under his belt, the Cardinals' Lynn seems to be running out gas. The right-hander has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last five starts -- and he has been saddled with a 7.57 ERA over that span. St. Louis (84-60) has lost 4 straight games with Lynn on the mound. Additionally, the Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games against NL Central opponents with Lynn making the start. Milwaukee (62-81) has won 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. They counter with Estrada who is 6-4 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. But while Estrada has been pounded at home with a 7.06 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .321 opponent's batting average, these numbers plummet to a strong 2.53 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .197 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Brewers have won 7 straight road games with Estrada pitching on the road as an underdog. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 13 of their last 16 games with Estrada pitching against fellow NL Central opponents. With the Cardinals a big money favorite at -155 or higher, take the Brewers with the 1.5 Run-Line while listing both starting pitchers.

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Matt Fargo

Chicago White Sox +145

After snapping their nine-game road losing streak in Baltimore on Sunday, the White Sox took the series opener on Monday against Detroit but gave it back last night. I expect Chicago to bounceback and grab the finale tonight at a very solid price. Chicago has been putrid on the road this season but it has been a lot better at home as it sits just two games under .500 and there is nothing left to do now but to play spoiler. The White Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against team with a winning record and they send Jose Quintana to the hill who has quietly put together a solid season. He has a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 29 starts and has been pitching some of his best of late. Nine of his last 13 starts have been quality outings and he has allowed more than three runs only once over that stretch. He has never lost to the Tigers in three career starts and he posted a quality outing in his lone start against them this season. The White Sox are 17-6 in his last 23 starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Tigers are 0-4 in their last four games against left-handed starters. Detroit got a much needed win last night as it has really been struggling of late. The Tigers are just 3-5 on this current roadtrip and going back, they are just 14-16 over their last 30 games since August 11th. They are still four games above .500 on the road but are overvalued here. Anibal Sanchez takes the hill and he has also been pitching very well. Nine of his last 10 starts have been quality outings and while he has been great on the road, the Tigers are just 6-7 in his 13 road starts including going 1-4 in his last five road starts against teams with a losing record. Sanchez is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in two starts against Chicago this season and the White Sox are 5-1 in their last six home games against right-handed starters.

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Dave Price

Braves / Marlins Under 6½

Look for a pitcher's duel to come in under the number in Miami this evening. Fernandez has pitched out of his mind at home where he's 8-0 with a 1.19 ERA. Atlanta's Minor has done his best work on the road where he's 7-3 with a 2.42 ERA. Fernandez has made just one start against the Braves, and that came in Atlanta. We saw only 3 total runs scored in that contest as Fernandez held the Braves to 2 runs on 3 hits. The under is 10-4 in Fernandez's last 14 starts overall. The under is 5-0 in the Braves' last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-0-1 in Minor's last 6 road starts. Take the Under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

Nick Parsons

Texas Rangers -145

Pittsburgh owns a 14-5 interleague record this season and has taken the first two games of this series.

Texas is 5-0 in Matt Garza's home starts and will desperately be trying to avoid the sweep.

When the smoke clears at the end of the afternoon, I expect Garza to get his team back into the winners circle.

AJ Burnett (7-10, 3.31 ERA)

Burnett is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over just three innings in a setback to the Cardinals on Friday.

The right-hander has now given up 10 earned runs combined over his last three starts.

Note that Burnett owns a poor 3-7, 4.30 ERA road record.

Matt Garza (9-4, 3.70 ERA)

Garza is also coming off a sub-par effort, giving up six runs off nine hits with no walks while striking out four in a 6-5 loss to the Angels on Friday.

Garza has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty ordinary in others. "Friendly confines" has been a definite factor for Garza bettors this year though as the big right-hander is 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA in nine home starts this season.

And note that he's 3-2 with a very respectable 3.31 ERA in all "day games" this year.

The Bottom Line

Both teams are right in the thick of the playoff picture, but Burnett has struggled in this spot all season, which I feel will ultimately prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest; the Pirates have lost the veteran's last eight road starts, Burnett going 1-4 with a ballooned 4.80 ERA in that span.

One player that you'll definitely want to keep your eyes on today is the Rangers' Adrian Beltre who is 3 for 8 in this series and who is a .323 hitter vs. Burnett with six doubles in 31 tries.

Texas enjoys a day off tomorrow, while the Pirates are right back to work at home hosting a four-game set for the Cubs.

I'm giving Garza the slight nod on the bump and believe that there are enough legitimate situational and motivational factors working in favor of the home side, that when also coupled with this very reasonable price, all signs would indeed point to the Rangers as being the prudent wager in this particular matchup.

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Doug Upstone

Tampa Bay Rays -135 

On Hump Day, Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Boston, after a win by two runs or less, against opponent (Tampa Bay) after scoring four runs or less in five straight games. Dating back 16 years, this hardball system is 102-33, 75.6 percent and is a rock solid 8-1 this season.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh +126 over TEXASFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates came into this series in a bit of a funk but after doing everything a little better than the Rangers and winning the first two games, there’s no reason they can’t get the sweep in this matinée. A.J. Burnett has been outstanding this season. He has 176 K’s in 163 innings and his xERA of 2.99 is actually lower than his actual ERA of 3.31. Burnett owns the second-best skills in the NL against RH bats: 10.1 K’s per nine, 1.8 walks, a 57% groundball rate, a 2.42 ERA and 0.91 WHIP against them. His skills against left-handed bats suffer some but when we look at the Rangers line-up we see the first four batters, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios and Adrian Beltre all bat right. A.J.Pierzynski, a left-handed bat usually bats next but this is a day game after a night game so Ron Washington may give the 36-year-old catcher the day off. The Rangers other two catchers bat right-handed. We could possibly see the first five Texas batters hitting from the right side and both Jeff Baker and Craig Gentry also bat right. Expect Washington to insert a couple of left-handed bats like Lance Berkman, David Murphy or Mitch Moreland but combined, that trio is just 9-38 lifetime against Burnett. No question, A.J. Burnett gives the Pirates a legit shot of winning every time he takes the mound.
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Matt Garza is showing signs of fatigue. There aren’t many more intense pitchers in the game than Garza but that high intensity level is draining, both mentally and physically. Garza’s groundball/fly-ball rate is at a pedestrian 39%/39% level. He’s posted a 5.13 ERA over his past six starts and he’s also been taken yard four times over his past three games. In fact, Garza has been taken deep at least once in seven of his past eight starts and he’s given up multiple jacks in three of those eight starts. When a pitcher is prone to giving up the long ball, one swing could easily result in two or three runs and that makes Matt Garza too big a risk as a -145 favorite against a team with power and momentum. Of course the Pirates can win here.
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Milwaukee +144 over ST. LOUISFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have the Reds in this weekend for a huge series, which sets up the Brewers nicely to pull of at least one upset over the next two games. Milwaukee remains a dangerous opponent for any contender, as its 20-20 record since July 27th will attest to. Marco Estrada has battled various injuries in 2013, but when he's been healthy, he has shown the skills of a legit sub-3.50 ERA pitcher. In April: 8.7 K’s per nine, 1.8 walks, 42% groundball rate. In August: 8.4 K’s per nine, 1.2 walks, 44% GB%. He does not have elite velocity (89 mph four-seam fastball), but his change-up is a dominant pitch against both LH and RH bats. In fact, Estrada has elite command against both lefties and righties. Over his last four starts, Estrada is 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA to go along with an outstanding 4/23 BB/K split over 26 frames.
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Lance Lynn has lost it. This is a guy that transitioned from relief to rotation without a hitch in 2012 but there’s been a giant hitch that has seen his ERA and xERA skyrocket since early August. Lynn has allowed four earned runs or more in five straight starts. One of those was against these Brewers in which Lynn was tagged for nine hits and six runs in six frames. In that start he struck out just two batters. Over his past 23 innings, Lynn has walked 12 and been taken yard six times. Lynn has never pitched more than 176 frames in a season and this year he’s already thrown more innings than he’s ever thrown. Lance Lynn is showing all the signs of a fatigued pitcher in trouble, that being, more walks, less groundballs, less K’s and a higher line-drive rate. The Brewers figure to take advantage.   
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Houston +136 over SEATTLEFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We mentioned yesterday that the Mariners have little interest in this series and right on cue, they go out and get plastered, 13-2. Seattle has dropped the first two games of this series while being outscored 19-6 and Brandon Maurer isn’t likely going to slow down this Astros hit parade. Maurer has been tagged for 92 hits in 69.2 innings for a BAA of .323. Maurer’s ERA on May 5 was 6.80 and four months later, it stands at 6.85 so at least he’s consistent. Maurer strikes out few and comes in with an alarming 1.65 WHIP.Maurer is still only 22 and has very little experience at AAA, so these struggles aren’t surprising. The M’s brought this kid up way too soon and now they’re using him in a meaningless game while playing out the string. When Maurer was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma of the Pacific Coast League (PCL) for a few starts earlier this season, he posted a 5.21 ERA in 46 frames. His confidence and skill levels are low and while his risk level as a favorite is high.
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Speaking of the PCL, which is well-known for its hitter’s parks and high scoring games, Brad Peacock spent much of the dog days there this past summer and posted a 76/22 K/BB split with a 2.73 ERA over 79 IP. After being traded a few times since being drafted, the highly touted Peacock is back in the rotation and he has the skills to remain there for a long time. After a huge breakout in 2011, Peacock took a step back in 2012, but his skills remained intact. He features plus arm strength with a fastball that sits 91-95 with movement. He compliments his FB with a solid change that has good fade, along with a tight curve he uses as an out pitch. His biggest issue has been commanding his pitches and relying heavily on his fastball but he worked on that in the minors and shaved two full runs off his ERA since his recall in early August. Peacock has had three outstanding starts in five tries since his recall, allowing just three earned runs combined in 19.1 innings against Texas, the Angels and Oakland. He also went seven full innings against Minnesota and allowed three runs in his first start back. This kid has upside and definite profit potential and is absolutely worth a wager here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

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Yankees vs. OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is the rubber match of what will be a four-game set between the two American League East rivals.  Baltimore won the opener 4-2 Monday, a game which featured a minor scuffle between the two managers. The Yankees then came back and won 7-5 Tuesday, a rare victory in Camden Yards for them this season. Like the linesmakers, I favor the O's here.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Scott Feldman - Over his last three starts, he has a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP, and that includes a complete game shutout his last trip to the mound. His only loss during this time did come against the Yankees, 2-0, but Feldman allowed only one run in seven innings there.  He is 3-0 his last three starts at home with a 1.31 ERA.
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2. Homefield Advantage - Going into yesterday, the Yankees were just 1-6 at Camden Yards this season. They have a losing road record this season, averaging only 3.9 runs/game.
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3. X-Factor - If you look at the Yankees' YTD run differential, it suggests that they are fortunate to even be in the playoff chase.  Despite a 77-68 record, New York has been outscored by its opponents this season while the other teams competing for the final AL Wild Card berth (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Baltimore, Kansas City) all have run differentials of +35 or greater.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

Wunderdog

Boston at Tampa Bay
Pick: Boston +125

The Tampa Bay Rays had their best chance last night in this series behind David Price. Price pitched very well, but once again the Rays' offense was anemic and produced nothing. The Rays are in a free fall which has them at 12-20 over their last 32 games, and the offense has scored 3 runs or less in nine of their last 12 games. To help put that in perspective, Boston is 57-17 this season when their opponent scores 3 or fewer runs. The Rays are 17-46 when they score 3 or less. Boston has been digging in as a dog where they are now 12-2 in their last 14. The Rays enter at 4-10 behind Cobb off a game where they scored 2 runs or less. Boston has held the iron hand in this series, winning five of the last six in Tampa. Take the Sawx.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

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Atlanta Braves at Miami MarlinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Miami MarlinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marlins trot out Jose Fernandez who has been near-perfect at home this season, going 8-0 with a commanding 12-2 team start record in 14 home starts along with a stellar 1.19 ERA. Miami overall is a bad club, but Fernandez is one of the lone bright spots for this team this season, and this club clearly gets up to play for him. Braves starter Mike Minor has very good numbers on the season, but he has been roughed up for 4 ER's in each of his last two starts against Miami this season. Can't bet against Fernandez at home, and at this price we're getting excellent line value.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

Ross Benjamin

Houston / Seattle Over 9.0

The Mariners have gone over the total in 6 of their last 7 games while the Astros accomplished the same feat in 7 of the last 9. The Seattle starter Maurer makes his first start since late May. In 10 starts this season the Seattle hurler has been terrible in posting a lofty 6.93 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Included in those outings was 1 appearance versus the Astros in which he allowed 7 earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning. The Houston right-hander Peacock has posted a large 9.64 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 3 starts versus the Mariners this season.

Any American League home team with a total of 7.0 to 8.5 that averages 4.5 or less runs per game, and they're coming off a loss by 4 runs or more, versus an opponent with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or more on the season has seen 45 of those 62 games (72.6%) go over the total since the start of the 2009 season. Play on this game to go over the total as my free selection of the night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 11

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles -121

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite Wednesday against the New York Yankees. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives, but I believe the Orioles have the edge on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Scott Feldman is having a solid season overall at 12-10 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.154 WHIP In 26 starts. He'll be up against Andy Pettite, who has been worse at 10-9 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.394 WHIP over 26 starts for the Yankees.

Feldman has really turned it on of late when the games have meant the most. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs over 21 innings. One of those starts came at New York when he allowed one earned run in seven innings on August 31.

The Yankees are 1-5 in Pettittes last 6 starts as a road underdog. New York is 2-9 in its last 11 road games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Baltimore is 38-18 in its last 56 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

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