Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 12

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 12

Steve Janus

Jets/Patriots Under 43½

I'm not a big fan of the spread in this one. The Jets needed a miracle late to beat a Tampa Bay team that I think isn't as good as people are expecting and the Patriots offense has been completely depleted with injuries at both running back and wide receiver.

You can never feel comfortable betting the UNDER with Tom Brady and the Patriots playing at home, but I feel that's the best option in this one. What got lost in the Patriots win over the Bills in Week 1 is how well the defense played in that game. New England held Buffalo to just 286 yards of total offense. With the Jets starting rooking quarterback Geno Smith, I can't see New York putting up a big number after managing just 18 points vs Tampa Bay.

On the other side of things, New England lost two key players in running back Shane Vereen and wide out Danny Amendola. Vereen had 101 rushing yards and caught 7 passes for 58 yards, while Amendola had 10 receptions for 104 yards. There's just not a lot of options left for Brady, especially with Rob Gronkowski still out and backup tight end Zach Sudfeld doubtful with a hamstring injury. Rex Ryan and the Jets defense played well against an explosive Tampa Bay offense and are more than capable of keeping the Patriots offense in check.

The UNDER falls into a strong system. Any time you have a team that is coming off an upset win as an underdog (Jets) vs a team off a non-cover in a win as a favorite, the UNDER has gone 50-20 (71.4%) when it's listed between 42.5 and 49 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 12

Doug Upstone

Tulane vs. Louisiana Tech    
Play: Louisiana Tech -7

For Thursday, PLAY ON teams like Louisiana Tech, who won 60% to 80% of their games a year ago, against a team which had a losing record last season (Tulane), in conference games. This college football system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent the past four years and with the spread hovering around seven, the average margin of victory in these matchups is 16.6 points.

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SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego -102 over PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies had big motivation on their side when they recently swept the Braves prior to this series but that motivation level is not nearly as high against this “also ran” guest. These two split the first two games of the series with Padres taking the opener 8-2 before losing to Cliff Lee last night, 4-2. Roy Halladay missed his last start due to flu-like symptoms. A shoulder strain nagged him most of last season, resulting in his first sub-200 IP year since '05. That shoulder carried 240 IP per season from 2008 to 2011. Halladay has spent most of this season on the DL. Before going on the disabled list, Halladay's biggest problem was his control and since returning, it has gotten worse. In three starts covering 17 innings, Halladay has walked nine batters while striking out eight. That’s not the only concern. Halladay’s groundball rate is at a career low 34%. His line-drive rate is at a career high of 27%. Age, health and the toll of all those great innings has made Roy Halladay a huge risk and the only thing that has him favored here is his name and pedigree. 

It has been nine straight pure quality starts for Tyson Ross since rejoining the rotation on July 23. He takes on a Phillies team who is playing out the season with a somewhat makeshift lineup. Ross is a must play, spotting less than a nickel or even a dime against Halladay and the Phillies. Ross’s skills have outperformed his results more than any starting pitcher in the game. His 3-7 record does not do justice to his 3.36 xERA, (2.79 actual ERA) 54% groundball rate, 8.4 K’s per nine and solid control. Put Tyson Ross on your radar as one of the most undervalued pitchers in the majors. Ross has nasty stuff, he has game and his chances of winning here are far greater than Halliday’s chances.

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SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ENGLAND -11 over N.Y. Jets

The Jets were at home last week and had it not been for a stupid personal foul penalty on the second last play of the game, New York would be 0-1 after a 17-15 loss to the Buccaneers.The start of the Geno Smith era went pretty well even if it did not have a lot to do with him. Facing one of the worst defenses from last year who were on the road would be a prescription for "as good as it gets" but pretty it was not. Kellen Winslow hung on to make the roster and then led the Jets with seven catches for 79 yards. Facing one of the weakest rush defenses from 2012, Chris Ivory only gained 15 yards on 10 carries. Bilal Powell looked like a powerhouse by comparison when he gained 29 yards on 12 carries. The Jets are getting way too much credit here for one lousy win in a game they deserved to lose. Had this game been scheduled for Week 1, the Patriots would’ve been a 14½-point choice. We now get the benefit of a weaker line because of Week 1 results. Pencil us in for that.

New England’s stock is low after its opening game wasn't nearly as clean and pretty as we have come to expect from the Patriots. Any time that Tom Brady has to run five times to gain a four-yard loss is a game that is not going to plan. Stevan Ridley was benched for fumbling twice and the Pats two best players last week, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen are both out this week. We say big deal. Brady still passed for nearly 300 yards and two TD’s. The Pats defense held E.J. Manuel to 150 passing yards and the Bills have way more weapons than the Jets have. Ridley is a fumble away from being in Bill Belichick’s doghouse and that’s a place he surely doesn’t want to be in. Ridley had nine carries for 46 yards on the 15 plays he was on the field, but fumbled twice. Belichick gave him the “you gone!” and Shane Vereen took over and ran for 101 yards. The only saving grace for Ridley is that Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and will miss a month, which may help him dodge a bullet. But once Uncle Bill gets pissy, it’s hard to get back in his good graces, even for a young buck with Ridley’s talent. With that hanging over his head, Ridley could go off for a huge game here. There’s nothing Belichick enjoys more than beating up on the Jets and Rex Ryan. The Patriots near loss in Buffalo has many scared to lay such a big number but for us, it has the opposite effect. Buffalo is much improved and it’s always a tough place to play in. The Jets are one of the worst teams over the past decade and nothing has changed. Patriots should have little trouble holding Geno Smith, in his first NFL road game, and the New York offense to very little if anything at all. Expect New England to go off for 24 or more and that should be plenty to get this cover.   


Survivor Pick - Week 2

Raise your hand if you sweated out last week’s Survivor Pool with New England or Indianapolis and shame on you if you penciled in the Steelers after we warned you to not go near that favorite last week. Once again, we’re going to stick to our philosophy of avoiding the biggest picks of the week and that would be New England, Houston, Green Bay or Philadelphia of which 85%-95% of your pool will be on. Anybody picking one of those first three teams could not be faulted, however, we would be rather cautious about playing the Eagles. That brings us to our choice, the Bears over the Vikings.

The Lions won by 10 points over the Vikings, but left a ton of points on the field by shooting themselves in the foot over and over again in the first half. They could have scored 50 and should have scored 40. Many teams will make adjustments after Week 1 but the Vikes just don’t have the personnel to get much better. This league is becoming more offensive minded every season and Minnesota is one of few teams that aren’t making the adjustment. Christian Ponder is not fit to QB in this league and when you don’t have a quality QB, you have no shot of winning more games than you lose.

The Bears beat a very tough and well-prepared Bengals squad. Unlike the Lions, who defeated the Vikes by 10, Chicago rarely leaves points on the table. The Bears used to be known for their great defense and they are still a top unit. However, this season, the new Trestman offense has been a success in the one game played and it’s only going to get better. Chicago takes a huge step down in class this week, they have a vastly superior QB and offense and they also have the much better defense. Oh, and the Bears are at home.

Our Week 2 Survivor Pick - straight up - is Chicago.

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SPORTS WAGERS

TEXAS TECH +136 over Texas Christian

The Horned Frogs come in as the 24th ranked team in the nation and when a ranked team is playing an unranked team, the line is usually inflated and that’s certainly the case here. TCU is not the 24th best team in the country and by the end of September or sooner, they will no longer be ranked. TCU played a decent game against nationally ranked LSU in its opener, eventually losing 37-27 but that is a flattering score to the Tigers. TCU managed just 259 yards of offense, had a lousy 12 first downs the entire game and much of its offense came at garbage time with the Tigers up 30-17 going to the fourth quarter. At home against SE Louisiana last week, the Horned Frogs were a 40-point favorite and didn’t even score 40 points, winning 38-17. Allowing 38 points to a conservative LSU offense and then allowing 17 to an FCS opponent is not exactly a ringing endorsement for the visitor. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs lost its #1 QB last week and will travel on four days rest to play this undervalued and quality opponent.

Texas Tech defeated Stephen F Austin last week 61-13. Yeah, big deal. However, they went into SMU in Week 1 as a four-point favorite and buried the Mustangs, 41-23. After two games, Tech has racked up 102 points and nearly 600 yards of offense per game. It’s no coincidence that TTU’s offense is thriving. Kliff Kingsbury, a former TTU standout QB himself, was brought as the new head coach and he knows a thing or two about offensive efficiency and creativity. Kingsbury served as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at both Houston and Texas A&M the last four years. He has mentored former UH standout Case Keenum and was instrumental in helping A&M's Johnny Manziel win the 2012 Heisman Trophy. Kingsbury is working with freshman QB, Baker Mayfield and the kid has been near flawless, completing over 70% of his passes for 780 yards (third in the FBS), tossing seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Red Raiders defense is not great but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that because they might be better than advertised, they have the offense to compensate and they’re facing a second stringer. TCU has not looked sharp in the early going and as we have seen over and over again, that lack of sharpness has a way of lingering for an entire season when a team gets off to a poor start. We also get the profitable angle of playing the unranked home dog in a nationally televised ESPN game. Keep the points. TTU outright.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 12

Wunderdog

Boston at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Rays have seen their hold on the final wild card slot dwindle to just a single game. Last night it was a grand slam in the 10th inning that led to their demise. Jeremy Hellickson will get the call to try and stop the bleeding, and he looks to be a good choice. Hellickson is off a great start vs. LA in his last outing, allowing no runs in 5.1 innings of work. He has also held this Boston lineup in check in his two starts this season against them, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings, and 2 runs in 6 innings. Hellickson is also 7-1 in his last eight home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays have been struggling, but not at home when facing a right hander where they are 15-5 in their last 20. Go with Tampa Bay.

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Jim KrugerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jets / Patriots Under 44FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have a recreational wager (10 to 33% of a unit) on the UNDER 44 in the NY Jets-New England game Thursday.  Last Sunday, the Jets would have lost outright and not covered the point spread if their linebacker didn’t hustle and somehow catch Buc WR Vincent Jackson from behind on a breakaway pass which should have gone for a TD in the final 90 seconds.  Then, an incredibly stupid penalty on the Bucs gave the Jets the opportunity for the winning field goal at the very end of the game. 
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It’s not going to be Christmas for the Jets against New England, but considering all of the Patriot injuries, 12 points seems generous to give New York.  However, historically speaking, home teams favored in Thursday games have covered the point spread 63.6% of the time, 49-28-4. 
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I stopped releasing NFL Totals plays as I was losing more than I was winning with them.  However, considering the Pat’s injuries and the ineptitude of the Jet’s offense, I have placed a recreational wager on the UNDER.  Do not bet it any lower than 43 as that is one of the key numbers in NFL Totals.
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History that supports the UNDER:  When the home team is favored on Thursday games going back to 1990, the UNDER has happened 63.0% of the time, 50-31.  That improves to 73.0%, 27-10, if it is a divisional game such as this Thursday’s.  Regardless of divisional game or not, if the home team is favored by eight or more points, that UNDER goes to 18-4.

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Ray Monohan

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Indians should be happy to hit the road because they are not playing the Royals anymore. Now they travel to Chicago to play the White Sox who have been out of the race for a while. Lefty John Danks is 4-12 on the season and has an ERA of over 6 over his last three starts so so much for the veteran lefty rounding into shape as the season wore on. Indians righty Corey Kluber has been solid all season long and will get the Indians off to a good start in the series. They need this one to build some momentum before they go back to Kansas City at the beginning of next week.

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Dave Price

Philadelphia Phillies +100

The Phillies are showing value at even money at home with two-time Cy Young winner Roy Halladay on the hill. Halladay has looked good in 2 home starts since coming off the DL, giving up a total of 3 runs in 12 innings in those. The Phillies are 25-10 in Halladay's last 35 starts versus teams that have a losing record. Also, Halladay's clubs are 25-8 all-time in his home starts when the money line is +100 to -125. The Padres are 1-4 in Tyson Ross' last 5 starts. They have also dropped 44 of their last 63 games versus Philly.

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Jeff Alexander

Baltimore Orioles -150

We'll fade the Yankees with Hughes on the mound. The Yanks are 6-13 in his last 19 starts, 5-16 in his last 21 road starts versus winning clubs and 0-6 in his last 6 starts when working on 5 days' rest. NY is also 1-4 in Hughes' last 5 starts versus the Orioles and 2-6 in its last 8 meetings in Baltimore. The Orioles are 7-2 in Chen's last 9 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus winning clubs.

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PlayersbetFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Patriots -11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England has won 40 of the last 43 games when playing as a favorite of ten points or more and they have won 16 of the last 20 home games. New England has won 12 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and they have won 10 of the last 11 games coming off a road win in their last game. NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road. NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England. New York is 0-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday the last two seasons. We are rolling with the Patriots tonight as much as I hate to go against my Jets as we see a blowout coming.

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Craig Davis

I never thought I'd say this, but I have no faith in Roy Halladay. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but the Doc is four months removed from surgery on his pitching shoulder and is just now trying to prove that he's recovered and better than before.

Well, it's not that hard to do considering how he started the season. His fastball was in the upper 80s and he just wasn't getting a lot of movement on his pitches.

Halladay was originally scheduled to pitch last night, but was given an extra day of rest to heal up for a bout with the flu he suffered over the weekend.

He's just 3-4 on the season with a 7.19 ERA and that's just not like him. While I do expect him to pitch better, I can't say I'm all that confident in his abilities after that type of surgery.

San Diego's Tyson Ross, on the other hand, has been pitching at a very high level despite not getting a lot of run support.

Ross (3-7, 2.79 ERA) has pitched well enough to be 7-3 instead of 3-7 but he can't seem to muster any offensive support from his teammates... who are giving him less than three runs per start.

He's winless in his last five starts despite shutting those teams down, for the most part.

I don't care who has a better overall record or ERA or name, but I do care who wins this game... and tonight it's going to be San Diego in the "upset".

3♦ SAN DIEGO

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Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie comes in college football.

Take the points with the Green Wave of Tulane as they battle their in-stat neighbor Louisiana Tech from Rustin tonight.

The Bulldogs have been a money-burner for their backers for a while now, as they are out of the gate this season at 0-2 against the spread, and have now dropped 7 in a row ATS since last season .

This is Skip Holtz' first year at the helm for Louisiana Tech, and it should be noted that Holtz is also on a point spread slide, as his South Florida Bulls failed their final 3 and 5 of their last 7 during his final season tenure in Tampa last year.

Tulane did just lose to South Alabma, but their 41-39 setback did feature Joe Montana's son Nick throwing for over 300 yards and 3 scores.

Perhaps the Green Wave have enough offense to stay close tonight in this one?

I am counting on it.

Take Tulane plus the points.

2♦ TULANE

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Brett Atkins

My free play tonight is on the Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line, over  the San Francisco Giants, as the National League West leaders are rolling once again, and will enjoy rubbing it in against the defending World Series champs this late in the season, especially at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers' magic number is down to six to clinch the West and have a pretty good chance to wrap up the title at the expense of San Fran, their most bitter rival.

The Giants are an abysmal 28-42 on the road, and will have their hands full with L.A. righty Zack Greinke, who is 6-0 over a dominant eight-start stretch in which he has allowed just 10 runs. He has not lost since losing to Cincinnati on July 25, also the last time he surrendered more than two runs.

Plus, Greinke has been astounding at home, posting an 8-1 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 12 starts while limiting hitters to a .210 batting average.

3♦ LOS ANGELES -1.5

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Chris Jordan

My free play for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line, as they return home after an impressive sweep of the Texas Rangers in Arlington, to host the lowly Chicago Cubs. And trust me, the Bucs are rolling once again, and could very well pull off a four-game sweep of the baby bears.

I think what I've found most impressive about the Pirates is how the recent acquisitions Justin Morneau and Marlon Byrd have responded for the National League contenders. Morneau (.313 in 32 at-bats) and Byrd (.321 in 53 RBIs) have bolstered a lineup that already includes Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez.

Pittsburgh trails first-place St. Louis by just one game in the National League Central, and both are riding the Majors' longest current win streaks. The Cardinals are tied with Washington with a five-game win streak, while the Bucs have won three win a row.

Meanwhile, the Cubs were shutout for the 13th time this season in last night's 6-0 loss to Cincinnati. That can't bode well now that they're in Pittsburgh, and knowing the Pirates just swept a three-game set from the Rangers even with the hot-hitting McCutchen (.469 over his last nine games) resting for the finale.

Pittsburgh is 45-25 at home and opens an 11-game homestand that not only includes the Cubs, but also features four games against the San Diego Padres and three games against the Milwaukee Brewers. Dare I say the Pirates could go 11-0?

Oh well, the winning begins tonight.

4♦ PITTSBURGH -1.5

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Scott Delaney

My free play is on the Boston Red Sox to get it done in Tampa Bay in a crucial American League East showdown. You'd think the Rays would be playing better, given how close they've gotten in the division, and the heat they're feeling in the wild-card race. But such is not the case, as they look like a team trying not to get to the postseason.

Tampa Bay is trying to avoid a three-game sweep and maintain its one-game lead for the second American League wild card. The Red Sox have looked solid in extending their lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East to 9-1/2 games last night, when pinch hitter Mike Carp stroked a grand slam in the 10th inning of a 7-3 win.

That might have been a severe dagger to the Rays, who are a major league-worst 4-13 since they were tied for the division lead on Aug. 24. That's just 19 days ago - less than three weeks. And while the Rays have seemingly disappeared, the Crimson Hose have surged again, winning 14 of their last 17 while dropping their magic number to clinch a playoff spot to six.

Look for the Sox to win this one, and don't bother listing pitchers, it won't matter.

3♦ BOSTON

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ARKANSAS STATE (-7) 36 Troy 29SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Troy’s offense has been incredibly efficient with veteran quarterback Corey Robinson completing an amazing 47 of 51 passes and the rushing attack churning out 225 yards a game at 6.0 yards per rushing play. Those numbers were accumulated against two very, very bad defensive teams in UAB and Savannah State, but Troy certainly has a pretty good attack. Arkansas State’s defense under first year coach Bryan Harsin was good in week 1, allowing 173 yards at 3.0 yards per play to an Arkansas Pine Bluff attack that would average about 3.8 yppl against an average FBS defense but the Red Wolves couldn’t stop Auburn’s spread attack last week (468 yards at 6.9 yppl) and they’ll face a similar style of offense today (although not as good as Auburn’s offense).
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Arkansas State’s offense was better last week than the 9 points they scored against Auburn would indicate (they gained 422 yards at a decent 5.3 yppl) and new quarterback Adam Kennedy put up good numbers in 5 starts a couple of years ago at Utah State before transferring. Kennedy completed 69% of his passes at Utah State with 11 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions and he’s completed 72% of his passes with no picks in two games this season. Kennedy should have a huge game against a horrible Troy pass defense that was 1.6 yards per pass play worse than average in each of the last two seasons and gave up 9.0 yppp to UAB in week 1. My ratings favor Arkansas State by 8 ½ points but there are a couple of minor situations that favor Troy so I’ll pass on this game.
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LOUISIANA TECH (-7) 33 Tulane 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wow! These two teams have been horrible. Tulane has been outgained 343 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 420 yards at 5.6 yppl by two horrible teams, Jacksonville State and South Alabama. Louisiana Tech’s new coaching staff has been a bit better but the Bulldogs are no longer an offensive juggernaut. LA Tech moved the ball at a decent rate against NC State (5.4 yppl) in week 1 but their defense was horrible (6.3 yppl) and a -4 in fumble margin led to a 14-40 loss. Last week’s 27-14 home win over Lamar wasn’t impressive either given that the Bulldogs were favored by 28 ½ points and only outgained Lamar by 78 yards. My preseason ratings would favor Louisiana Tech by 10 points and I get 13 ½ points using this year’s games only. Tulane does apply to a 92-41-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation but the Green Wave look like the worst of two bad teams.

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