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MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 9
MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 9
Friday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
Phillies-Nationals: Honestly, I really wonder if Haren is "back" or if he's just faced weaker opponents. He has, actually. The Phillies have their hitting shoes on and we don't like backing Washington against LHP, however this is John Lannan who did shut out the Nationals not long ago. Nationals more rested, but -165 isn't happening, and I could make a reasonable case for the Phillies, if not the RL.
Padres-Reds: I suppose if there was a pitcher on San Diego's roster we'd try to back it'd be Cashner. Arroyo hasn't been sharp at all his last two starts, and I honestly thought the Reds would be more than -160. Is that value or is that suicide. The Reds haven't seen much of Cashner, but he he did give up a ton more flyball outs to the Yankees than he's used to doing. If it weren't for that, this would be an auto-under and may well still be. Reds pen seemed to be better lately than a week ago.
Miami-Atlanta: I'd almost always look to take the RL or the ML with a big dog, as opposed to the alternative, but the Fish playing extras on Thursday and using all of their bullpen pretty much takes that out of the equation, which only leaves the total. Beachy didn't look terrific in his first start since Tommy John surgery, but the one thing the Braves will gave that the Fish won't is a bullpen. Almost want to think about the over in this one, which is lower due to the park and the pitchers.
Cubs-Cardinals: One could reasonably conclude that as good as Lynn looked against the Reds and as battered as the Cubs were Thursday that St. Louis simply rolls them. But, they haven't seen Rusin. But, that's not enough for me to think about the Cubs ML or the RL. I suppose it should be, but with the rest factor, I doubt it. Perhaps use the Cardinals in a ML parlay or something.
Pirates-Rockies: Well the Pirates certainly are catching all the breaks, but that's against Miami who is perhaps making them look better than they really are. The Fish did make them use a ton of arms out of the pen, which unless I totally trusted Liriano would concern me. I will never totally trust Lirano, and after he just two-hit the Rockies, one might think the Rockies make the adjustments. And De La Rosa was lit up by the Pirates, so perhaps some regression there as well. Because we can't trust either bullpen here, over may be the bet for me. A bit square, and the first move was to the under, but, half the Rockies team rested against the Mets. Perhaps the home dog.
Mets-Cardinals: That's a steep price to pay for Corbin, especially if you look back to Jult 2nd when the Mets tore him a new one in the 7th inning, with not much better of a lineup than they'll put out tomorrow. The Mets pen has been much better of late, and they've won 60% of their games against left handed starters this season. I wouldn't rule it out. I do lean under here as well.
Oakland-Toronto: A lot of love for the A's on the road here at -135, or total disrespect for the Jays and Rogers after coughing up that lead in Seattle on Wednesday. I wonder what this line would have been in April. Hell, Rogers was +180 in Atlanta this year and won, and we do like Toronto better against right handed pitching. I do have to wonder how much of the remaining energy Toronto might have had was left somewhere over Edmonton flying back. Parker is a flyball pitcher and the roof should be open. And since Oakland hammered Rogers and is still playing for all the marbles, one would have to think this goes over.
Angels-Indians: Seems like a cheap price for Weaver, but lets remember the Angels are done, and now perhaps mentally given the three game sweep, at home, to Texas. It's a shame I like the Indians better against LHP, or I'd go ahead and call this one right now. The Angels are 10-19 against LHP. FWIW Kazmir wears his glove on his right hand, which means he is a left handed pitcher. He did take a lot of pitches to get through 6 innings in his last start, and that was against the Fish, who we learned today will swing at anything. Before that he was hit hard at home by the White Sox. Weaver has not won a game on the road this season, so we'll take the Indians here, who still have reason to play, unless they use up their get out of jail free card against the Tigers on Thursday.
Detroit at NYY: Well, obviously the Yankees will be the rested team, and a lot of this probably depends on how may innings they get out of Max on Thursday. If it's not enough, I can make a case for fading Porcello here, but, with as well as the Tigers have hit Nova in limited at bats, perhaps over 8 before it goes to 8.5, which I think it will, is the right call here. At -120 they're begging for people to take Detroit, I would think, even making the Yankees slight dogs at home.
Boston-Kansas City: Totally dependent on Thursday's game, but I like the Royals here. They saw a ton of Peavy when he was with the White Sox, and typically hit him pretty well. I keep waiting for the Santana implosion, given that he had been a flyball pitcher most of his career, and not, until this season, a big strikeout guy. This is a game that I can see reaching eight runs before nine innings.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 9
MLB Odds and Picks – Dan Haren is how big a favorite vs. Phillies?
By: The Linemakers
Is this 2010? That’s what one would think if looking at today's line on the Phillies-Nationals game, because Dan Haren is as high as -170. Granted, Haren has looked good over his past two starts, winning both, but how does a pitcher a team has lost 11 straight starts behind since July 22 have such a high number attached to him?
The Phillies aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard with runs or wins lately, which is part of the reason the line is so high. But two good starts by Haren against the Mets and Brewers is hardly enough reason for these odds. Philadelphia had lost 13 of 14 games before taking two of three from the Cubs this week, but on the season, the Nationals have won only two more games than the Phillies.
Haren (6-11, 5.14 ERA) got a chance to regroup while on the disabled list and has posted a 2.40 ERA in five starts since coming back, but the Phillies remain a team he has yet to figure out during his career. He's 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA over seven starts against Philly. They are the only team in baseball he's yet to defeat, and his ERA against them is the second highest against any team.
Haren is matched up tonight against John Lannan (3-4, 4.10), who spent his first six years in Washington. Lannan has had his former team's number this season, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against the Nats this season. The two pitchers squared off on July 8, with Philadelphia getting a 3-2 win and Lannan pitching eight scoreless innings.
This is a game between two bad teams that had high expectations coming into the season. Each has been given opportunities to climb up the standings against the Braves, and both have failed miserably. Haren should be favored in this game because of his last two starts, but not at -170. We could see -140, but because of the inflation and juicy number on Philly behind a pitcher that gets jazzed facing his former team, the best value today lies within the underdog here.
The Tigers haven't won more than 12 consecutive wins since 1934, 10 years before manager Jim Leyland was even born. The main reason for their streak has been pitching, as their starters have posted a 1.48 ERA over the recent run. Their hitting has been pretty good as well. Since the beginning of July, they have hit .322 with runners in scoring position, 49 percentage points higher the next best mark over the same span.
It was just a week ago that the Yankees were considered a wild-card contender, but after being swept by the light-hitting White Sox and losing 12 of their 18 games since the All-Star break, they are now seven games back in the wild-card hunt.
Perhaps even more interesting than the game itself will be the reception New York fans give Alex Rodriguez in his first home game of the season. He was booed loudly in all five of his at-bats Wednesday in Chicago, but did manage to get one hit. With the negative coverage in the New York tabloids around his pending 211-game suspension, Rodriguez will likely get the same type of greeting tonight at home that he heard in Chicago.
Phillies (Lannan) +160 at Nationals
Pirates (Liriano) -128 at Rockies
Tigers (Porcello) -108 at Yankees
Rays (Price) -120 at Dodgers
Second half record: 45-29 (+1,901)