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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 21

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 21

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Baltimore at Texas
The Rangers look to salvage a game against the Orioles and build on their 17-5 record in their last 22 games after dropping the first 2 games of a series. Texas is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 16.080; NY Mets (Harvey) 15.135
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.476; Cincinnati (Bailey) 17.151
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); Over

Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.773; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.690
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Over

Game 957-958: Miami at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.426; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.957
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-165); Under

Game 959-960: San Diego at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 13.299; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.348
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 14.536; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.085
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+160); Over

Game 963-964: Chicago Cubs at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 15.752; Colorado (Chatwood) 14.641
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-160); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Over

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.172; Toronto (Dickey) 16.679
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-130); Under

Game 967-968: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.165; Kansas City (Shields) 16.126
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Under

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.520; Minnesota (Diamond) 14.182
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.142; Houston (Lyles) 13.945
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-175); Under

Game 973-974: Oakland at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 15.320; LA Angels (Williams) 15.830
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over

Game 975-976: Baltimore at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.437; Texas (Perez) 16.011
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under

Game 977-978: NY Yankees at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.861; Boston (Dempster) 14.930
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+115); Over

Game 979-980: Atlanta at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.880; White Sox (Quintana) 14.250
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under

WNBA

Atlanta at Tulsa
The Dream look to build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games against teams with a losing SU record. Atlanta is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6)

Game 601-602: Indiana at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.734; Washington 115.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 5; 145
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+5); Under

Game 603-604: Atlanta at Tulsa (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.375; Tulsa 106.128
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Over

Game 605-606: Minnesota at Phoenix (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 115.705; Phoenix 115.005
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 171
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+4 1/2); Under

CFL

Hamilton at Saskatchewan
The Tiger-Cats look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games against teams with a losing SU record. Hamilton is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+6)

Game 427-428: Hamilton at Saskatchewan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 112.968; Saskatchewan 116.906
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 4; 60
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 57
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+6); Over

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Bruce Marshall

LA Dodgers vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

The Dodgers have scraped out wins the past two nights in D.C. and have their ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound this afternoon. Sounds good for Don Mattingly's crew, right?  But the offense has slowed to a crawl, scoring just 8 runs over the last five games, leaving Kershaw and other LA pitchers no margin for error, especially as Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig (0 for 9 and 5 Ks since the All-Star break) appears to be slumping.  Despite Kershaw's prowess, his record is a modest 8-6, and doesn't comapre to the home mark of Washington starter Jordan Zimmerman,  who is 9-0 with a 1.75 ERA this season at Nats Park.  Kershaw is not unbeatable, and the Dodger offense is not scoring enough runs to warrant favortism (however slight) on the road vs. Zimmerman.

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Jesse Schule

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

The Pirates have lost back to back games in Cincinnati, and they now sit two games back of division leaders St. Louis. They look to avoid a sweep in the series finale today, and with a favorable matchup on the mound, they might be in a good spot to earn a victory.

Jeff Locke will return to the rotation after sitting out with a sore back since July 8. Locke (8-2, 2.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on just three hits over seven innings in a 2-1 loss to Oakland his last time out. He ranks second amongst National League pitchers with only Clayton Kershaw having a lower ERA.

The Reds haven't been able to solve him in two previous meetings, as he's 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in those games. One of those games was at Great American Ballpark, and he tossed seven scoreless innings not factoring in the decision.

Homer Bailey will get the nod for the home team, and he's lost consecutive starts since recording a no-hitter on July 2. In fact the Reds have lost five of his last six starts, with the only exception being the no-hitter.

Bailey (5-8, 3.82 ERA) has allowed eight runs on 20 hits over just 11 2/3 innings while losing to the Braves and the Brewers in his last two outings. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits over six innings in a 5-3 Reds loss in his only previous start versus the Pirates this season.

Another factor working against Bailey today is that he's been awful in the light of day, with a record of 1-5, 5.13 ERA in nine starts this year in afternoon games.

With the Pirates a significant underdog here, I am going to play them on the RL.

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Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

The Tribe wraps up a three-game series with the Twins at Target Field when they send All-Star hurler Justin Masterson to the hill against Scott Diamond. In doing so the Indians know Masterson is 4-2 in day starts and 5-3 against the A. L. Central this season. On the flip side, Diamond is 1-6 with a 6.57 ERA in his last seven team starts and 2-6 in his career team starts during July. Back the better team and the better arm here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

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Hollywood Sports

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Prediction: Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Saskatchewan (3-0) has raced out to a perfect start after the first three weeks of the Canadian Football League season after their big 39-28 win at Toronto last week against the defending Grey Cup champions. But this team now faces a possible letdown situation returning home to face a non-divisional rival who has only won game this season. The Roughriders have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, their star quarterback Darian Durant is listed as questionable with a right foot injury for this contest. Even if he plays in this contest, his effectiveness in the pocket may be impacted by this nagging injury. Hamilton (1-2) looks to build off their first win of the season last week with their 25-20 victory versus Winnipeg. The Tiger-Cats have exceeded point spread expectations in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Hamilton has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in the ninth of July. The T-Cats defense recorded an impressive six sacks last week while holding the Blue Bombers to just 330 yards of offense -- and that is a very encouraging sign moving forward this week against a less than 100% Durant. Take Hamilton plus the points in this one.

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Rocketman

Detroit @ Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +102

The Detroit Tigers travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is 24-39 last 3 years and 2-9 this year on the road when the line is -100 to -125. Doug Fister gets the start for Detroit where he has struggled lately with a 7.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Fister is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA in all his starts vs Kansas City in his career. James Shields gets the start for the Royals here today where he is 5-1 with a 3.53 ERA in all his starts vs Detroit in his career. Looking for the home team to get the win here today. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City today!

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Jimmy Boyd

Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9½

I expect both teams in this matchup to score a lot of runs and send this game over the total early on. Chris Tillman has been struggling for the Orioles recently. In his last three starts he has posted a 5.19 ERA and given up 23 hits and 5 walks in just 17.3 innings pitched. He is facing a Rangers team that has a .267 batting average at home this year.

Baltimore has had no problem scoring runs themselves. Over their past seven games they have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game. Martin Perez does not have a lot of experience this year starting in just six games. His ERA is a bit deceiving given his limited playing time so far. Over his last three starts he has been trending in the wrong direction, allowing four home runs and posting a 1.412 WHIP in those 17 innings pitched.

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Alex Smart

Los Angeles Dodgers -111

Dodgers starter today vs the Washington Nationals Clayton Kershaw has won three of his past four starts and leads the Majors with a very stingy 1.98 ERA with opponents BA clicking in at a lowly (.188) . Zimmermann the Nats starting hurler for this tilt had an MRI exam taken on Friday, and it revealed that he had an issue with some soft tissues in the neck, according to manager Davey Johnson. Zimmermann last pitched on Thursday (6 1/3) innings. He may not be 100% and this alone adds credence to Kershaw and the Dodgers getting the nod in this spot. I know Zimmerman hasn't lost a game at home since May 17, 2012, a span of 22 starts. He may not take the loss today but Im betting his team does. Also caveat emptor to all who ride this positive wave for Zimmerman. Remember all good and bad runs eventually come to an end. It must also be noted that the Nationals are second lowest scoring team in the league at 3.7 runs per game, and with Kershaw on the hill will have a hard time getting men across the plate.

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Jeffrey Brandes

Seattle Mariners -169

Pitchers:
SEATTLE MARINERS: FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) ERA: 2.53 W/L: 10-4
HOUSTON ASTROS: JORDAN LYLES (R) ERA: 4.02 W/L: 4-3

FELIX HERNANDEZ is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA over his last nine starts and hasn't lost since May 25 in Texas. He shut out the Astros on five hits in six innings in a 7-0 win their only meeting this season on April 22 in Minute Maid Park. In his last 3 starts he's 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA. In that
span of 22.0 innings he has 17 strike outs.

JORDAN LYLES has surrendered 18 runs (15 earned) over his last four starts. In his last 3 starts he is 0-1 with a 5.26 ERA. He has just 6 K's in 17 innings in those 3 games.

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Justin Bay

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox    
Play: Atlanta Braves -128

With Minor on the mound for the Braves, look for some good run support. Minor has held White Sox hitters to a sub .200 batting average in his career. Minor has pitched very well on the road, only letting up more than 2 runs in one game out of 4 on the road.

Quintana is throwing for the White Sox, look for him to have a bit of trouble getting through the Braves lineup. With the Braves lineup mostly all righties, they should be able to put up some tough at bats 1-9. Quintana has struggled at home this season and this start will be no different.


Phillies vs. Mets    
Play: Under 6½

Look for this game to be a very quick one with the two aces on the mound. Cliff Lee has been amazing this year with pinpoint accuracy but no run support. Harvey should be able to have his way with the Phillies, a team that can not hit righties or lefties. The mets will not be able to do anything against Cliff Lee, they have trouble scoring against anybody.

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Jim Feist

Yankees at Red Sox
Pick: Under

The under is 9-2-1 in the Red Sox last 12 against the division rival AL East and a weak NY offense is in town. At least the Yankees have ace C.C. Sabathia. He has a 3.60 ERA his last three starts with 20 Ks in 20 innings, and for the season he's walked only 30 in 137 innings. The under is 23-10-3 in the Yankees last 36 road gamees and 36-15-3 under the total against a team with a winning record. The under is 10-3-2 in the Yankees last 15 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and both teams have above average bullpens.

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Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers 

The Dodgers are hot right now and took another last night from Washington in extra innings as the Nationals continue to struggle at the plate. The Dodgers based on that win last night fit a solid system that is cashing over 80% and plays on road favorites that are off a road win and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent off a home loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 10 or more hits in the loss. The Pitching match is maybe the best of the day with Kershaw for LA and Zimmerman for Washington. Both have solid numbers. However the Dodgers are the better hitting teams and Kershaw has been lights out on the road in July tossing 26 innings and allowing 1 run in 3 wins. The Nationals are 1-6 as a home dog off a home loss where they scored 2 or less runs and LA has won 4 of the last 5 as a road favorite from -100 to -125 and have won 11 of 15 this month. Look for The Dodgers to take this one.

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Art Aronson

Hamilton vs. Saskatchewan
Pick: Saskatchewan

Whether "straight up" or "against the spread", to say the Roughriders have dominated this series would be an understatement 15-3 SU in their last 18 overall and a near-perfect 11-1 SU their last 12 in front of the home town crowd. Saskatchewan is also 10-2 ATS its last 12 at home in this series and 18-6 ATS in the last 24 overall. The Roughriders are 3-0 to start the year, while the Tiger-Cats are just 1-2. Saskatchewan annihilated the defending champions 39-28 last week, while Hamilton finally got off the schneid, holding on for a 25-20 home victory over the Blue Bombers. The Tiger-Cats have the firepower offensively to hang with the Roughriders, but clearly their defensive unit is going to be in for a long night having already given up a ghastly 89 total points to the opposition over the first three weeks (conversely, the high-flying Roughriders have given up 67; certainly not elite, but definitely much better than Hamilton's discombobulated and porous secondary). The road has not been kind to Hamilton (0-5 SU its last five away from friendly confines) and I expect this trend to carry over here as the home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

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Bob Balfe

Cincinnati Reds -140

Like I said the last two nights I think this Pirates team is going to burn out big time in the second half. The Reds are a playing great baseball and are taking advantage of a team that is struggling with their bats right now. Take Cincinnati.

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Jeff Alexander

Milwaukee Brewers -173

Miami has been a dead fade on the road where it has lost 42 of its last 56. It is even 5-21 in its last 26 road games versus losing clubs like the Brewers. Milwaukee is a reliable 55-16 in its last 71 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, and it has won 13 of its last 16 home games against the Marlins. The Brewers are also 3-0 in Wily Peralta's last 3 starts, during which he has a 0.42 ERA. Bet the Brew Crew.

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Dave Essler

LA Dodgers -110

Kemp is supposed to be activated and play today for the Dodgers, and he's hit Zimmerman well, as has Hanley. Not many Nationals with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman have hit Kershaw much at all, and Kerhsaw, as you know, is another stick in the order. And there's a chance LaRoche won't play due to the flu. The Dodgers bullpen over the last week has a 0.36 ERA, which is simply sick. The pressure is on Washington not to get swept, but I think they will. Just to much value on Kershaw at this price with the better bats behind him.

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Chip Chirimbes

Los Angeles Dodgers -111

Dodgers over Nationals- These two clubs are like trains passing in the night headed in different directions. The 'red-hot' Dodgers have won 19 of their alst 24 games while the Nationals have dropped seven of their last nine. Washington will send Jordan Zimmermann (12-4, 2.58 ERA) to the hill who hasn't lost at home since May of 2012 posting a 9-0 mark with a 1.75 ERA. Los Angeles will counter with Clayon Kershaw (8-6, 1.98) who is 4-2 lifetime against the Nats. Baseball is a long haul and the Dodgers are on the move.

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Dave Price

Washington Nationals +103

The Nationals are showing value at home in the underdog role with Zimmerman on the mound. They are 11-0 this season in his home starts as he's posted a 1.75 home ERA. The Nats have also won each of his three career starts versus the Dodgers. L.A. is playing well and has its ace on the mound, but it is just 11-9 in Kershaw's starts this season while Washington is 15-4 in Zimmerman's starts. The Dodgers took the first two games of the series, but recent history tells us the Nats are due as they are 5-0 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series. Take Washington.

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Jack Jones

Phillies/Mets Under 6½

I look for an absolute pitcher's duel in this NL East showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets. Cliff Lee and Matt Harvey, two of the best starters in the league, will go toe-to-toe this afternoon.

Lee has gone 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The left-hander has been at his best on the road, going 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 11 starts away from home. Lee is also 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in nine career starts against New York.

Harvey has been nothing short of spectacular this season. The right-hander has gone 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 19 starts this season with 147 strikeouts over 130 innings. Harvey is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.760 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia as well.

The UNDER is 11-2 in Lee's last 13 starts vs. NL East opponents. The UNDER is 11-4 in Lee's last 15 road starts. The UNDER is 11-3 in Mets last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The UNDER is 15-6 in Mets last 21 Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Craig Davis

Today's free play is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays as they attempt to get back on track after losing the first two games of this series.

The Rays are hot right now, going after their 17th win in 19 games, but they'll have to figure out the knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey if they want that sweep.

Tampa is not only 16-2 in their last 18 games... but they aren't committing errors (only three in 18 games) and the starting staff has a 2.09 ERA in that time period.

It's absolutely amazing.

Plus, the offense is batting .285 with 18 home runs while scoring five runs per game during this run. Again... incredibly amazing.

RA Dickey, however, has pitched well over his last few outings and looks to put the stop to the surging Rays.

Dickey has a 3-0 win over the Rays under his belt, but that was back in early June. And as well as he's been pitching lately, the Rays are simply too hot to be stopped right now.

Take the Rays as your free play of the day.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

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