Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Kansas City at NY Yankees
The Yankees look to build on their 5-0 record in C.C. Sabathia's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. New York is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145)

Game 951-952: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Jordan) 16.733; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.802
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 16.478; Miami (Alvarez) 15.086
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Over

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.739; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.749
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under

Game 957-958: Houston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.763; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.097
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-265); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-265); Over

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 16.428; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.875
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 12.363; San Diego (Stults) 13.893
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over

Game 963-964: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 13.899; San Francisco (Zito) 14.800
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 15.796; Baltimore (Britton) 14.942
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 14.257; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.804
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Under

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 16.314; Detroit (Verlander) 15.778
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+200); Over

Game 971-972: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Johnson) 14.902; Cleveland (Jimenez) 13.830
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 13.695; Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.460
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Under

Game 975-976: Boston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Webster) 16.605; Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.786
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.195; Pittsburgh (Cole) 17.580
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 16.301; Cubs (Wood) 15.349
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); N/A

WNBA

Atlanta at Minnesota
The Lynx look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus Atlanta. Minnesota is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5)

Game 651-652: Seattle at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.234; New York 109.906
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 146
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6; 141
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6); Over

Game 653-654: Atlanta at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.625; Minnesota 121.540
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5; 160
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Yankees and Royals resume a four-game set Tuesday night in the Bronx where CC Sabathia matches serves with James Shields at Yankee Stadium. Sabathia saunters to the hill sporting a 13-4 mark in his last seventeen-team starts against Kansas City, along with a 13-3 ledger in his last sixteen home team starts during July. Meanwhile, Shields owns a 2-11 career team start record as a visitor to Yankee Stadium, including 0-6 the last six. With that, look for the large lefty to improve to 4-0 in games against the A. L. Central this season here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play in the Yankees.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Jimmy Boyd

Kansas City Royals +130

James Shields has been great all season long, but it is not reflected in his record. The Royals had some hitting issues earlier in the season, but I expect them to have no problems providing Shields the run support he needs today. Kansas City has averaged 5.9 runs per game over their past seven games.

I believe CC Sabathia is going to struggle today against the Royals. He has been trending in the wrong direction over his past three starts posting a 4.71 ERA. While that number is not horrible, it does not come close to comparing to Shields 2.69 ERA on the road.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Rob Vinciletti

St. Louis Cardinals -1½ -119

On Tuesday night the Houston Astros travel in to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals in game one of their series at Busch stadium.

The Astros have not fared well again this season and are in a tough spot tonight. Below are several statistical Indicators that show just how much their lack of talent has hurt them again this season. Houston is 11-48 in July games and 10-34 vs winning teams. They have lost 10 of 14 on Tuesday.

The Cardinals are a solid team once again and tonight they fit the 27-4 Power system below that plays on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less that come in off a 1 run home favored at -140 or higher, if they scored 4 or less runs in the win and are playing an opponent like Houston that is off a 1 run road dog loss at +140 or higher, that also scored 4 or less runs. The Cardinals are #1 in the league in scoring. St. Louis has won 3 straight an averages 5.3 runs vs right handers. They have been Ruby Tuesday winning 9 of 13. When installed as a home favorite in this price range they do not disappoint going 34-7 over the years. In the series vs Houston here at home they have won 10 of the last 12.

The Pitching: St. Louis has staff ace and All star Pitcher Adam Wainwright tonight. In his career Wainwright has been an Astro Killer going 13-1 with a solid 1.44 era.He has a dominant 1.84 home era on the season. He will oppose Astro righty Bud Norris who has a 5.02 road era this season and will have a tough time with the vaunted St. Louis lineup.

Astros
•Astros are the third lowest scoring team in the league at 3.8 runs per game.
•Astros trail the league in hits with 7.8 per game.
•Astros strike out more than any team in the league with 9.3 per game.
•Astros are the easiest team to score on in the league, giving up 5.3 runs per game.
•Astros are second worst in the league in giving up hits, allowing 9.9 per game.
•Astros are second worst in walks allowed in the league at 3.6 per game.
•Astros strike out the second least opponents in the league with 6.7 per game.


Cardinals
•Cardinals are the highest scoring team in the league at 5.0 runs per game.
•Cardinals lead the league in hits with 9.4 per game.
•Cardinals are second best in K's per game with 6.8.
•Cardinals have allowed the third fewest runs in the league at 3.6 runs per game.
•Cardinals give up the fewest free passes in the league allowing 2.4 per game.
•Cardinals are third in the league in striking out opponents with 7.8 per game.

In Closing we will recommend at Run Line Play on the St. Louis Cardinals in this game due to the high line in this game. St. Louis has the system and several statistical factors on their side tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Jeffrey Brandes

Washington Nationals +133

Pitchers:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS: TAYLOR JORDAN (R) ERA: 2.70 W/L: 0-1
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: COLE HAMELS (L) ERA: 4.38 W/L: 3-11

TAYLOR JORDAN will be making his third Major League start tonight. Jordan had a 0.83 ERA in 54 innings with Double-A Harrisburg, striking out 43 while walking nine. Through 64 combined innings between Double-A and the Majors this season, Jordan has yet to allow a home run. He went 5 2/3 innings while allowing two earned runs against the Brewers his last time out.

Ryan Zimmerman is starting to heat up. In eight July games, the Nationals' third baseman is hitting .367 with one homer, nine RBIs and two stolen bases. Also noteworthy is the fact that the Nationals are 4-0 when Harper drives in at least one run since his return.

COLE HAMELS starts for the Phillies tonight. He is having a flat out awful season despite holding the Pirates to one earned run over seven innings on July 4th in his last start.

The Phillies will be missing a big stick as Ryan Howard is out 6-8 weeks to repair the torn medial meniscus in his left knee. Howard hit .266 with 11 homers in 317 plate appearances.

The Phillies won 3-2 last night and I figure the Nationals will give it all they have tonight especially at the very generous price. There is no way I'd lay odds on Hamels at this time.

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Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mets / Giants Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets offense is awful against left handed pitching and the Giants offense has been awful against everybody of late. Entering Monday night, the Mets ranked 26th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 26th in wOBA against left handed pitching. That won't help them when they face Barry Zito at AT&T Park on Tuesday night. Zito has been an embarrassment on the road, but in the pitcher-friendly conditions of his home park, Zito has been dynamite. He is 4-1 in 10 starts with a 1.98 ERA. Current Mets are 17-for-73 against Zito.
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The Giants had managed 33 runs over their last 16 games entering play on Monday. Dillon Gee has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Gee's problem has been the home run, especially on the road, where 11 of his 14 gopher balls have come, but AT&T Park is not a good home run hitter's park, so Gee should be able to avoid that problem for the most part. Gee has a very good 3.23 K/BB ratio and has actually gotten a bit unlucky on balls in play with a .334 BABIP.
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Given the performances of everybody involved, it would appear that scoring runs will be a struggle on Tuesday night.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves at Miami MarlinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami MarlinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We know, we've been sinking with the Marlins since the weekend, as they have lost four straight after last night's bitter 14-inning loss to the Braves. Moreover, Miami is batting only .179 during that stretch, and continues to have its hands full at home with Atlanta, which has won five straight at Marlins Stadium. But Mike Redmond's team has been in every one of those games, and a bit better execution on the basepaths Sunday at St. Louis, and a bit better execution when moving runners into game-winning scoring position in the 13th inning last night, could have reversed the outcome in both of those games. Atlanta's offense, limited in losses during the last two games of last week's midweek set vs. the Marlins at Turner Field, did very little for 13 innings on Monday, and Miami starter Henderson Alvarez should be ready to go a bit longer than the five innings he pitched in his comeback game from the DL last Thursday against the Braves, in an eventual 4-3 Miami win. Note that Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran labored through five innings (his shortest outing since April 18), allowing three runs in that 4-3 loss to Miami last Thursday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Jim Feist

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners

It's not too often I look to play on the Mariners, especially laying a price against a first place team like Boston. The Sox lead the AL East, arguably the best division in baseball with four of the five teams eight games or better over .500. Meanwhile, Seattle sits fourth in the AL West, 12 1/2 games back of the A's. So what is it I like about this game? Two words, Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma has been great for the M's this year, posting a 7-4 record and 2.60 ERA. In addition, the M's have won 19 of the last 28 starts by Iwakuma. And at Safeco field, the M's are 13-3 in his last 16 starts. Allen Webster will start for the Sox, posting a 1-2 record and 7.88 ERA in five games this season. Webster has had trouble with walks, giving 12 free passes in just 24 innings against just 19 KO's. Heading into this series the Sox have been roughed-up on the road, going just 1-4. I expect a good pitching matchup here on Tuesday, but will stick with one of my favorite pitchers.

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Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Royals vs. YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm expecting runs to be scarce Tuesday night in the Bronx as the Yankees host the Kansas City Royals.  That's because this one should be a good old fashioned pitcher's duel between James Shields and CC Sabathia.  Neither club's offense is inspiring much confidence right now.
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Here are my keys to the game:FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1.  Shields - I'd love to bet Shields more, but he typically gets no run support.  That said, the team did give him plenty of runs last time out and has won each of the last seven times he's started! He has received six no-decisions during that time frame.  Prior to his last three starts, the Royals scored four runs or less in nine consecutive starts made by Shields.  He has a 2.69 ERA in nine road starts this season. He allowed just three runs, only two earned, in a start earlier this year vs. the Yankees.
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2.  Sabathia - The hefty lefty has pitched much better at home this season than on the road.  His ERA in the Bronx is 3.48.  That said, he did pitch well in his last start, which came on the road.  There, he allowed just two runs in seven innings at Minnesota.  Sabathia has typically had Kansas City's number throughout his career by going 18-10 in 35 starts (22-13 TSR) with a 3.26 ERA and 1.244 WHIP.
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3.  X-Factor - After a six-game win streak, the Yankees have managed just one run in back to back games.  The Royals average just 3.3 runs per game vs. lefties this year, and are averaging just four runs per game their last four games.

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mets vs. GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dillon Gee (6-7, 4.45 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Gee gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out seven over seven frames of work in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Gee continues to get the job done and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. Gee will be opposed by Barry Zito (4-6, 4.44 ERA) who gave up one run over four innings in a no-decision vs. the Reds on Wednesday. Here's a chance for the veteran to return to form and improve upon his near perfect 4-1, 1.98 ERA home record. As I mentioned in yesterday's free play writeup, six of these team's last ten in the series have gone "under" the number coming into Monday's game; expect these starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, the "under" is definitely worth a second look in this one.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick:  St. Louis -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Note this is the only matchup Tuesday where both teams had Monday off.  With the money line so high, I have no choice but to turn to the Run Line in this one, but St. Louis at -1.5 is still a sound investment w/ Adam Wainwright on the mound against a Houston team they've dominated here at home through the years....
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Speaking of domination, Wainwright has been just downright ridiculous in his career vs. the Astros.  He owns a 13-1 team start record against them w/ a 1.41 ERA and 1.003 WHIP.  The last time he faced them was August of last year and he threw a complete game shutout w/ 12 K's.  As a team, St. Louis has taken 10 of 12 games here at Busch Stadium from their former NL Central rival.  The Cards just swept the worst team in the National League (Miami) over the weekend.  Now they turn to the worst in the American League.
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If St. Louis does have one Achilles heel, it would be left-handed pitching, but fortunately Houston starter Bud Norris is not a southpaw.  He has pitched well of late for the Astros, but he's now Wainwright, who has a 1.84 ERA at home.  Houston has lost 8 of 10 and is facing a team that's 12-1 seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite.  The Astros did beat the Cardinals at home on June 26th.  Expect a much different result here.

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Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orioles were able to avoid a disastrous road trip with a 9th inning rally yesterday against the Yankees. I look for them to carry over that momentum at home tonight against the Rangers. Baltimore has won four straight and five of six at home and are a respectable 25-17 at home in 2013. They are also an impressive 19-9 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.
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I like their chances of cashing a winning ticket with a very underrated Scott Feldman taking the mound. Feldman came over from the Cubs and won his first start at the White Sox, allowing just two runs on six hits in six innings. He's already faced the Rangers once this season (with Cubs) and was brilliant, allowing just two hits in seven shutout innings of a 9-2 win.

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Colorado +113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One of the reasons Colorado is in second and the Padres in last, in the NL west is the Rox 8-2 record against San Diego. The Padres are opening this series at home after flying cross country from Washington where the results were not great. Edinson Volquez in on the hill and the only positive thing you can say about him if that he is slightly less flammable at PetCo than on the road. He is 0-3 against Colorado this season and in two of those contests, one at home and one on the road, he didn’t even get through the 4th inning. Rox starter Tyler Chatwood is hardly scary but he has a 4-2 record and a 2.75 ERA. He has yet to face San Diego this season.

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Mitch Wilson

Oakland / Pittsburgh Under  8

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Oakland A’s face off on Tuesday at PNC Park for game two of their interleague series.

The Pittsburgh Pirates kept it close on Monday, but in the end they couldn't get a tying run and fell to the A’s in their series opener. Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, and Clint Barmes each had two hits as the Pirates scored jus tone run on nine hits. Starting pitcher Jeff Locke allowed three hits and two runs, while striking out four over 7.0 innings to take the loss and fall to 8-2 on the season. For Tuesday’s game, the Pirates start Gerit Cole, who is coming off of his first career loss. For the season, Cole has allowed 34 hits and 13 earned runs while striking out 16 over 29.2 innings for a 4-1 record and a 3.94 ERA.

The Oakland A’s didn’t get many hits on Monday, but they took advantage of their opportunities and got the win against the Pirates. Jed Lowrie had two hits, Josh Donaldson had a hit and both scored runs as the A’s scored two runs on three hits in all. Starting pitcher Bartolo Colon allowed seven hits and a run while striking out five over 7.0 innings to get the win and go to 12-3 on the year. Grant Balfour earned his 23rd save. For Tuesday’s game. the A’s start Daniel Strally who has won his last four decisions but he has several no decisions mixed in over that time span. For the season, Strally has allowed 62 hits and 37 earned runs while striking out 59 over 73.2 innings for a 5-2 record and a 4.52 ERA.

Pittsburgh is 11-5 in their last 16 games, 6-1 against the AL West, and 21-8 in their last 29 games as a favorite. Oakland is 12-3 in their last 15 games against the AL Central, 9=3 in their last 12 games overall, and 6-2 in Strally’s last eight starts. Oakland has won the last 10 meetings between these two.

I don’t expect a lot of runs in this one and my free pick here is the under.

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are catching some great value with the Cubs in this series opener on Tuesday. Chicago won last night against the White Sox in a makeup game from an earlier postponement and now its heads back to Wrigley Field where it has won its last two series against the Astros and Pirates and is 4-2 over the last six games. The Cubs are 5-1 in their last six games against teams with a losing record and they send Travis Wood to the mound who is in search of his first win since May. Despite tossing six straight quality starts, Chicago has dropped all six of those games with Wood going 0-3 and the reason is poor run support. The Cubs have averaged only 1.7 rpg in those six starts and on the season they are giving him just 3.2 rpg. He has been sensational all season with a 2.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, eighth and fifth respectively in the National League, with 16 of his 17 starts resulting in quality performances. The Angels are 5-12 in their last 17 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Los Angeles has been on a roll with wins in 10 of its last 12 games as well as victories in seven straight road games. These runs are playing into this line and not what Joe Blanton has done this season. He has a 5.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 17 starts with the Angels going 4-13 in those games. Unlike Wood, he has been getting decent run support so the poor record can be attributed to bad pitching. His numbers are just as bad on the road and the Angels are 2-10 in his last 12 starts as a favorite.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. ClevelandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After losing three of four at home to Detroit, the Indians now sit 3.5 games back of the first place Tigers in the AL Central. They host Toronto tonight in the opener of a three game set at Progressive Field. The Jays have dipped below .500 again after tying a franchise record with 11 straight wins in June.
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Toronto will hand the ball to Josh Johnson, who has been a giant disappointment since coming over from Miami. Johnson (1-3, 4.89 ERA) has allowed 11 runs on 15 hits over just 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts. While his numbers on the year are pretty ugly to look at, they are much worse on the road, where he's 0-2 with a 9.26 ERA in three starts.
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Ubaldo Jimenez will get the nod for the home team, and he's having himself a solid season. Jimenez (6-4, 4.67 ERA) took a no decision in his first start of the season in Toronto. He allowed a single run on three hits over six innings in that game. He's be very sharp in recent weeks posting a record of 2-0 with a 3.81 ERA in his last five starts.
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Jose Bautista is just 1-for-16 lifetime versus Jimenez, while Edwin Encarnacion is just 2-for-11.
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The Indians are in a good spot to get back on track at home tonight against a struggling pitcher, and the price is more than reasonable.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Wunderdog

Seattle at New York
Pick: New York -6

The Seattle Storm has long been a playoffs fixture in the WNBA, but will be hard pressed to get there this season. They lost their top two players to season ending injuries, and this team is a fraction of what it once was. Both of these teams enter with 5-7 records. But the Storm, who has the biggest home court advantage in the WNBA, has not fared well on the road at just 3-5, and making the trip cross country to win is not going to be easy. Seattle has dropped four of their last five overall, and are not playing well right now, and their best answers will be on the sidelines the rest of the campaign. New York was able to win in Seattle, so I expect them to play with urgency, and confidence at home in this one. Play on New York.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Dave Price

New York Yankees -138

The Royals have won Shields' last seven starts, but I believe the run comes to an end tonight. Shields hasn't been as sharp of late, as evidenced by his 6.48 ERA and 1.741 WHIP over his last three starts. Plus, he hasn't had much luck at Yankee Stadium. In fact, his teams are 0-7 in his last seven starts there. C.C. Sabathia can rest a little easier now that he's notched his 200th career win. He has won 13 consecutive regular-season starts against AL Central opponents and is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts against Kansas City during this span. The Royals took the first game of the series, but they are 1-7 in their last eight games following a win, 0-6 in their last six Tuesday games and 29-72 in their last 101 meetings with the Yankees. Take New York.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

Game Plan

Cincinnati -135

Milwaukee is 9-22 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. Reds are 39-18 in their last 57 games as a favorite. Reds are 5-1 in Cingranis last 6 starts. Brewers are 0-5 in Peraltas last 5 starts vs. National League Central. Take Cincinnati today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 9

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Oakland +107 over PITTSBURGHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Gerrit Cole has made five starts since being called up and three of those five were of the pure quality variety. This hard-throwing youngster made it through three levels last season. In AA, Cole kept the ball on the ground and had an elite strikeout rate but this isn’t AA. In his 30 innings at this level, Cole has just 16 K’s to go along with a troubling 28% line-drive rate. His WHIP of 1.31 is also bordering on unacceptable. Cole has a high ceiling but he’s going to suffer the ups and downs of a pitcher with very little experience at both Triple-AAA (just 74 innings) and the big leagues.
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Dan Straily is very similar to Cole in that he is a former minor-league K leader that rocketed from AA to majors by August of last season. His first seven starts last year in the majors had its ups and downs too and in the end, Straily went 2-1 with a 3.89 ERA in 39 innings. After his June 22 start of this year, Straily was temporarily assigned back to Triple-A because the A’s didn’t need a fifth starter. He was subsequently called back up for a July 4 start in which he threw a 7-inning, one-hit gem against the Cubbies. While his overall skills in June weren't exciting, he bumped up his swinging strike rate to 10.0% that month, a mark which gives his decent strikeout rate even more upside. Straily’s 5.00 ERA is the result of his 59% stand rate but a close looks shows that he still carries plenty of profit potential pitching for this determined A’s squad. Among his great starts this year aside from the aforementioned beauty against the Cubs, Straily threw a two-hitter in Texas in seven frames and a four hitter in six innings against the Giants. Straily’s style should bode well here against a Pirates team that strikes out far too often and that has suddenly lost five of seven and three in a row. 
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Los Angeles +103 over ARIZONAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers are one of the hottest offensive teams in the league right now and have been so for well over three weeks now. Over that span, L.A. is in the top two in the NL and top four in the entire league in most offensive categories that include runs scored, team BA, on base % and OPS. They scored six times here last night but that could have easily been twice that after the Dodgers belted out 17 hits and left 11 on base. Expect the Dodgers to be a little extra jacked up tonight against Ian Kennedy, who wwill face the Dodgers for the first time since he was suspended for plunking Yasiel Puig. Kennedy has an ugly overall 5.16 ERA, including a 5.40 ERA the first time he goes through lineups. His skills tank after that. He has a BAA of .295 the second time through lineups and a .344 BAA the third time through. He also comes in with an ugly 34%/24%/41% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and over his last five starts, that groundball rate is even lower at 31%. The hot-hitting Dodgers could and probably will tee off against this heavy fly-ball and line-drive pitcher at this unforgiving park.
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Ricky Nolasco was once a near-elite skill set just waiting for some hit/strand rate regression to facilitate a breakout. But while the Marlins were waiting for that regression, Nolasco turned 35 and is no longer in the Marlins long term plans. Now Nolasco gets a reprieve of sorts, as he instantly joins a true contender and he figures to be very much focused in his first start in his new digs. Nolasco also brings with him elite control and a good strikeout rate (25BB/90K in 112 IP). Over his last two starts, Nolasco has whiffed 13 batters without issuing a single walk. He also has a 53% groundball rate over his past three starts. The Marlins had won three of Nolasco’s past four starts and now he gets the benefit of starting for a team whose offense is clicking and that is winning a lot of games recently. That works. 
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Colorado +115 over SAN DIEGOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After posting some pretty sweet numbers in five April starts and holding steady until recently, Eric Stults' skills have come back down to earth. Over his last six starts, he has just 16 K’s in 37 frames and we’re seeing both his line-drive rate increase and his groundball rate decrease. Those are three definite warning signs that tell us to avoid him. Stults is a 33-year-old journeyman that has spent 111 days on the DL over the past three seasons and many more days in the minors (over 800 minor league innings) since he was drafted way back in 2002. Prior to this season, Stults had never thrown more than 99 innings in a season at this level. He’s up to 112 innings already this year and this now becomes unchartered waters for a guy with a long history of poor durability and very average stuff. Furthermore, the Padres have dropped 10 in a row and 12 of their past 13 games.
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Jhouly’s Chacin has started 16 games this season and comes in with an ERA of 3.74 and xERA of 4.19. While there is nothing remarkable about that on paper, a close look reveals that 11 of Chacin’s 16 starts have come at Coors Field, the best park for hitters in the majors. On the road, Chacin’s numbers are elite, where his ERA is 2.05 and his groundball rate is 52%. Chacin has not allowed a HR in his last four road starts and he has a much better chance of thriving in this game than his mound opponent. The Rockies also have a better chance of winning this one than the reeling Padres and that is value at its best.

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