Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

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N.Y. ISLANDERS +158 over PittsburghFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. We played the Islanders in Game 1 but missed an opportunity in Game 2 and we’re not going to make that mistake again. The Islanders are the most undervalued team in the field of 16. That 5-0 score in Game 1 was very misleading, as Evgeni Nabokov was yanked after the third goal. The Penguins had just 26 shots on net the entire game (although they didn’t need more) but the Islanders matched that total and played the game in the Penguins end as much as their own end. In Game 2, the Isles showed a ton of heart by rallying after being down 2-0 and 3-1. Nabokov was outstanding in the last two periods, the Islanders created many scoring chances, the winning goal that Marc Andre Fleury allowed was a soft one and thus, a series was born.
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Now the scene switches to Long Island where in its hey-day, was a sick building to play in for the opposition. We expect that atmosphere back today after being absent for a long, long time. The modern Islanders will be hugely energized by something they have never experienced before in their own building. The Isles have not looked a bit out of place in either game in this series and didn’t look out of place against Pittsburgh during the regular season either. They have matched Pittsburgh shot for shot and scoring chance for scoring chance. Remember, the Pens lost to Philadelphia in last year’s playoffs because they could not prevent goals. That chink in the Penguins armor is rearing its ugly head again. The Isles are going to be a tough out and it’s not going to be that difficult to make the Penguins a little uneasy because this current group of Pens, like many others that have thrived in the regular season, has shown a vulnerability in the playoffs that says they can be beat. That apllies here.
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Ottawa +127 over MONTREALFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canadiens won their final two games but one of those came against Winnipeg after the Jets were officially eliminated and the last one came against a lethargic Maple Leafs on the final day of the regular season. Habs’ backers should me more concerned about the way the Canadiens stumbled down the stretch with six losses in eight games prior to winning their final two. Montreal’s only two wins during that stretch occurred against Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Over their final 20 games, the Habs went just 10-10. That’s not to say the Canadiens are overrated. Montreal is an outstanding skating team with several players that every GM in the league would love to have. If Carey Price returns to the form that he displayed for most of the year as oppose to the final 10 games, then the Canadiens are going to be a tough to beat throughout. However, this choice isn’t about fading the Canadiens.
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The Ottawa Senators were the league’s most resilient and determined team through the regular season. When several key players were injured early in the season, the Senators overcame adversity and played their hearts out to be in this position. Adversity doesn’t build character; it reveals it and the Sens passed with flying colors. Now the Senators are healthier than they’ve been since the first week of the season. The best blue-line weapon in hockey, Erik Karlsson is back, Craig Anderson is healthy and playing outstanding in goal and Milan Michalek, a 35-goal scorer last season, is back after knee surgery. In Karlsson’s first game back, he saw more than 27 minutes of ice time and assisted on both goals in the Senators' 2-1 playoff-clinching overtime victory against the Washington Capitals. A healthy Karlsson makes everyone better. The Senators are also the best conditioned team in the NHL under Paul MacLean’s strict program. He’s also one of the NHL’s best coaches. What we know for sure is that Ottawa will compete in this series. With a top-notch goaltender, an exceptional defense, lots of depth up front and a coach who's among the best in the NHL, we like their chances better to advance better than Montreal’s chances and so we’ll play Ottawa in the series and in Game 1.
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SAN JOSE -½ +123 over VancouverFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Although the Canucks have matched the Sharks and even outplayed them for at least half of the time in this series, the fact remains that they still lost both games at home and they’re down 2-0 heading to San Jose. The Canucks fragile mindset and softness has not come out yet but at some point it will. It’s not difficult to stay amped up at home, where an entire city is behind you, as oppose to playing in a hostile environment and the Shark Tank is as hostile as it gets. Vancouver has lost eight of nine playoff games since taking a 3-2 lead over Boston in the Stanley Cup finals two years ago. The Canucks were knocked out as the top seed in five games in the opening round last year and they may go down in four straight this year.
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San Jose lost just two games in regulation the entire year at home. The Sharks’ pick-up of Raffi Torres last month is turning out to be a pretty shrewd move. Torres is exactly the type of playoff performer that makes an impact because of his physical and mental toughness, his talent and his desire to get dirty and mix things up, something the Canucks want no part of. The Sharks are more balanced offensively, they want it more, they’re at home, they have all the momentum and they surely are not going to let up with a chance to stick a fork in the Canucks.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

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St. Louis -104 over MILWAUKEEFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When you keep winning in the opposition’s backyard, it doesn’t get more difficult the next time out, it gets easier. St. Louis has won the first three games of this series and will attempt to sweep with another win today. In this series, the Cardinals have gotten every big hit, every big out, they’ve also scored six runs or more in each game and they have a great shot of putting up a similar number here. Marco Estrada has 34 K’s against just seven walks issued in 35.1 frames this year. Estrada is legit in that he’ll win some ball games, however, his dominant start/disaster start split over his career assures us that he’s just as likely to blow up as he is to throw a good game. Estrada has faced the Cubs twice this year and the Padres once, totaling three of his five starts. He has a 4.58 ERA, a .284 BAA but the most disturbing number off all is the 10 jacks he’s surrendered in five starts. Against the Cardinals at this park, he could easily add to that total. Current Cardinals are hitting .330 against Estrada in 88 career AB’s against him.
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A consistent strikeout rate and consistently good ERA came into question 18 months ago when doctors discovered damage in Jaime Garcia’s left shoulder. On the shelf for two months in the middle of the 2012 season, the left-hander rebounded with solid skills over the final two months of the campaign. Garcia has upped his game this season. Garcia is a pure groundball pitcher and continues to keep the ball on the playable side of the fence with an elite 68% groundball rate. One could throw a blanket over the similar xERA figures of the last three years-plus, and Garcia has also been consistent with those years, from month to month. Garcia is the straight goods and when he pitches the Cardinals have a better chance of winning than losing. He’s a much better option at a pick-em than Estrada, not only because he’s a better hurler but because the Cardinals are a better team with the superior bullpen.
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Seattle +135 over TORONTOFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fading the Blue Jays has been a cash cow and we’re not about to stop now. The Blue Jays were smoked again yesterday by a score of 8-1 and have now been outscored 25-3 over their last four games. Yesterday, the Blue Jays managed just five hits (four singles and a double). That genius John Gibbons may be out of a job as early as tomorrow. Gibbons had Rajai Davis hitting sixth yesterday. Sixth?! Davis is a career bench player whose only attribute is his speed. He should be a pinch runner in the ninth inning when down a run and not in the heart of your batting order. The Blue Jays are a half game better than the Marlins. The only reason the Blue Jays aren’t dead last in the AL is because Houston switched leagues. This is not just a bad stretch. The Jays have put together a poor mix of players and a turnaround is not forthcoming.
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The reason the Jays are a big price today is because Brandon Morrow is up against Joe Saunders and we’re not about to make a case for Saunders. Saunders can get rocked at any time, as he’s a below average pitcher that relies on a lot of luck to get through games. He may not need luck today because the Blue Jays are not hitting anything. Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow is winless this season and at home, Morrow is 0-1 with an ERA of 4.96. Forget the pitchers, as this has nothing to do with them. Toronto is a complete mess that is not responding to its manager. Every player walks to the plate with their head down and back to the dugout with their head down as they get booed off the field on their way back to the dugout. The Mariners offer up some great value here at this ridiculous price because right now, the Jays are the most beatable team in MLB.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers vs. San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After yesterday's scoring outburst in which the teams combined for 19 runs (10-9 Giants win), I expect a far lower-scoring game tonight on Sunday Night Baseball between Los Angeles and San Francisco.   Consider that in the four previous meetings this season, the teams had not scored more than a total of eight runs, with 3 games seeing four runs or less scored. Two were shutouts.
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Pitching tonight for the Dodgers will be Hyun-Jin Ryu.  He looked good last time out, allowing only two runs over six innings as the team beat Colorado 6-2. He struck out 12 Rockies.  I cashed a free pick on the Ryu and the Dodgers in that game!  It was Ryu's second straight quality outing as he'd previously given up just one run in 7 IP vs. the Mets on April 25th.
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San Francisco is 40-18 Under at home following a win by 2 runs or less.  They are also 18-6 Under after allowing nine or more runs in their last game.
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Giants' starter Matt Cain has been surprisingly ineffective in six starts this season, but he did throw six scoreless innings against the Dodgers on Opening Day, allowing only four hits.  In 24 career starts vs. LA, Cain's ERA is 3.24.  Expect runs to be at a premium tonight.

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Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have never swept a 4-game series from the Brewers.
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These pitchers opposed each other a few weeks ago, at St. Louis. Both pitched well but neither got a decision.
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The Cards won that 4/14 game by a score of 4-3. With this afternoon's rematch being played at Milwaukee, I feel that Estrada and the Brewers have an excellent shot at delivering some payback.
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Estrada's ERA remains mediocre (at best) but a 34/7 K/W ratio (18/3 at home) shows that he's doing something right. The Brewers are 4-2 (+1.8) when he takes the mound.
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Note that Garcia has a 6.84 ERA in five career starts at Miller Park.
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Even with their recent skid here, the Brewers are still 120-67 (+33.2) here the past few seasons. While its been a tough series, I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Consider Milwaukee.

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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Knicks / Pacers Over 182FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that more than 185 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-36 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1996. Play ‘OVER’ with any team (INDIANA) after allowing 80 points or less and is now facing an opponent after scoring 90 points or less 4 straight games. Sim shows that Knicks will score between 93 and 98 points. In past games, the Pacers are a solid 22-8 OVER (+13.2 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Pacers present a situation showing that they are 18-7 OVER (+10.3 Units) versus horrible foul drawing teams attempting <=21 free throws per game with the game taking place beyond the second half of the regular season including the playoffs in games played over the last 2 seasons. Moreover, Pacers are 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in road games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take the ‘OVER’

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox +140FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After losing the first two games of this series to Texas, the Boston Red Sox are highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They still have the best record in baseball at 20-10, and they add another win to it today.
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Jon Lester has been one of the best starters in the league his entire career. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in six starts this season. The Red Sox have won five of his six starts this year.
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Yu Darvish has been solid this season as well, but he's being overvalued here. Plus, Darvish faced Boston last season, giving up 6 earned runs and 15 base runners over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-9 loss to the Red Sox on the road on August 6th.
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The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Boston is 60-26 in Lester's last 86 starts with 4 days of rest. Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

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Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brewers -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After losing the first three games of this series, I like Milwaukee to salvage a game this afternoon. Garcia hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where the Cards have lost 9 of his last 13 starts. They've also lost his last 2 starts against the Brewers. Estrada has been really good with the exception of two outings this season. The Brewers are 8-1 in his last 9 home starts, 9-0 in his last 9 starts versus National League Central foes and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Beermakers.

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox +113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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My hometown Royals are hot and leading the division and are off a shut out win last night.  Looks easy to lay the 125 with KC to close out this series but Davis is on the hill and the guy has been lit up like a X-Mas tree all season and I see the White Sox, who are struggling this year, to exact some revenge from last night today in KC and get a road win today as a slight dog in this one.

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh -110FOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year Gonzalez recorded 21 wins with a 2.89 ERA. This season, Gonzalez has a 5.34 ERA. In his last 4 outings, Gonzalez has allowed 18 runs on 20 hits with 14 walks in 21 IP. Pittsburgh counters with Wandi Rod, one of the best home pitchers in all of MLB. In 2 starts at home this season standing 13 2/3 innings, Rodriquez has yet to allow an earned run with a 0.29 WHIP and 11/1 KBB. With Pittsburgh 4-0 home/loss and Washington 0-6 away/win, we confidentially step in with the Pirates today.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana/ New York Under 183: The Knicks have yet to score more than 90 points in a playoff game this year and now they take on a better defensive squad that the Celtics were. The Pacers enter this game 2nd ins coring defense (90.7 ppg), 1st in defensive FG% (42%) and 1st in 3pt defense (32.7%), and on the road this year they have allowed just 91.3 ppg. The Pacers have allowed just 89.2 pg in their last 5 games, while the Knick offense has struggled to score, putting up just 88.2 ppg in their last 5. The Pacers rugged defense should be able to hold the Knicks to Under 90 points in this one. Defensively the Knicks were stellar vs Boston, allowing just 82.3 ppg in the series and that tough defense should carry over here vs an Indiana squad that pu up just 80.3 ppg in their 3 road games vs Atlanta in the playoffs, while for the year they average just 91 ppg away from home. Both teams play at a slow pace and that also mean less possessions for both. Both defenses are dominating right now and in a slow paced game that should keep this one in the low 170's at best.   
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Memphis/ Oklahoma City Over 186: The Grizzlies showed in their last series that they can run and they were good at it, putting up 108.3 ppg in their last 3 vs a good Clippers defense. Memphis will look to run here im sure, as the Thunder did have problems containing Houston's uptempo game, allowing 101.8 ppg in their last 5 of that series. At home the thunder do allow 95.8 ppg, so i feel that 95+ from Memphis should be rather easy to achieve. I know the Memphis defense is a tough nut to crack, but Oklahoma City does average 108.5 ppg at home and even without Westbrook the should be good for at least 95+ of their own. These teams met 3 time this year and the game in Memphis was low scoring (179 points in OT), but the two games played here put up 195 and 204 points. I see this one hitting at least 190 as well.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis +139 over OKLAHOMA CITY
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Memphis is favored to win this series against the Thunder by and rightfully so. Without Russell Westbrook, the Grizzlies will be able to focus all of their defensive attention against stopping Kevin Durant. Ball-hawking defender Tony Allen, and the lanky Tayshaun Prince will get the defensive assignment on KD. Allen has been one of the best perimeter defenders the past few seasons and Prince will be able to bother and alter Durant’s shots with his length. The absence of a true second star to help out Durant will greatly hurt the Thunder’s chance to win not only this game, but also the series against the defensive-minded Grizzlies.
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Since the Grizz are favored to win this series, they must win least one in OKC and there is no better chance than now as the series gets underway. The Grizzlies are coming off four straight double digit victories against a 56-win Clippers team in the first round and really clicked on both sides of the ball as they closed the Clip Joint out. In the regular season, Memphis took two of three games against the Thunder and those wins came with Westbrook in the lineup. The Grizzlies continue to be underrated by the general public, even coming off four straight double digit wins against a talented Clippers squad while the Thunder struggled to close out Houston following Westbrook’s playoff-ending injury. This isn’t a team that is just happy to be in the second round; the Grizzlies are a legitimate title contender. Ride the hot team in this one and watch the Grizzlies steal home court in the first game of this series.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Wunderdog

Minnesota at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -155

Cleveland has won six in a row, but is getting no respect with this betting line, especially at home. Minnesota is in town with a bad offense, No. 25 in runs scored and No. 29 in slugging. Starter Mike Pelfrey (2-3, 7.66 ERA) has struggled mightily of late. Pelfrey's transition to the American League has been a difficult one. He has given up 19 earned runs in 17 innings over his last four starts and has seven strikeouts against seven walks on the season. In fact, after Saturday's showing, Minnesota's starters have a collective 5.01 ERA. The Indians have won six in a row by a combined margin of 53-14. Cleveland pounded out 12 hits, including five for extra bases in Saturday's 7-3 win over the Twins. The Indians are No. 6 in baseball in runs scored, tops in slugging and No. 5 in on-base percentage. Starter Corey Kluber (2-0, 2.25 ERA) has been great, walking none in 12 innings with 11 strikeouts, so grab the hot home team. Take the Indians.

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