Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 2

Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 2

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Dallas at LA Lakers
The Mavericks look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at Los Angeles. Dallas is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3 1/2)

Game 761-762: Chicago at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.746; Washington 120.292
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1 1/2); Under

Game 763-764: New York at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 122.256; Miami 128.314
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+8); Over

Game 765-766: Dallas at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.060; LA Lakers 120.542
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3 1/2); Over

NCAAB

Iowa vs. Maryland
The Terps look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. Maryland is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawkeyes favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+3 1/2)

Game 767-768: BYU vs. Baylor (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 66.267; Baylor 70.385
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 4; 148
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3); Under

Game 769-770: Iowa vs. Maryland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 69.537; Maryland 67.915
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Iowa by 3 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+3 1/2); Under

Game 771-772: East Carolina at Weber State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 57.314; Weber State 67.675
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 10 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Weber State by 8; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-8); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Arizona
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Diamondbacks and build on their 9-4 record in Jaime Garcia's last 13 starts in Game 2 of a series. St. Louis is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100)

Game 951-952: Colorado at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.515; Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.417
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 16.225; Arizona (Cahill) 15.182
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Over

Game 955-956: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 18.207; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.913
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over

Game 957-958: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.822; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.036
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Under

Game 959-960: Cleveland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.552; Toronto (Dickey) 15.298
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over

Game 961-962: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.280; Houston (Harrell) 14.824
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Under

Game 963-964: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.264; Oakland (Parker) 15.969
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Over

NHL

Los Angeles at Phoenix 
The Coyotes look to build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 games when playing with 2 days rest. Phoenix is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Coyotes favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+115)

Game 51-52: Winnipeg at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.544; NY Islanders 11.063
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+110); Over

Game 53-54: Washington at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.785; Carolina 11.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-120); Under

Game 55-56: Ottawa at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.183; Boston 11.422
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+170); Over

Game 57-58: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.502; Pittsburgh 13.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 3; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-220); Under

Game 59-60: Florida at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.167; Tampa Bay 10.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over

Game 61-62: Colorado at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.224; Nashville 11.062
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-160); Under

Game 63-64: Los Angeles at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.700; Phoenix 12.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+115); Over

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E Carolina at Weber StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 146½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Take under 146.5 in this game being played at Weber State, that is the title game for the College Insider tourney. ECU has played four home games and their scores have tallied 138, 128, 129 and 131 points as the Pirates have played solid defense lately. They do have 15 overs and just 7 unders this year. They are well coached by Jeff Lebo and led by Miguel Paul, Armstrong, Kemp and Sampson. Weber State just won at Northern Iowa and is a great home team with just one loss and that was by ten points to BYU. They have played recent scores of 115, 157, 135, 127 and 131 points. I think we see another under on Tuesday night.

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Brigham Young vs. BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 152½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two teams that have been lighting the scoreboard up in NIT tourney action go head to head in what promises to be a explosive high scoring matchup. Baylor in its three NIT games has averaged 93.3 ppg, while Brigham Young has averaged 86.3 ppg in its 3 tilts! I'm betting on more offensive fireworks again tonight!

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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E Carolina at Weber StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Weber StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Weber St is a tremendous 17-1 at home winning by an average 80-57 score. While we don't think this one will be a blowout of that Magnitude, we do think Weber St will win and cover. They are a solid 6-0 straight up and to the spread as a home favorite from -6.5 to -9. Only 2 times they were held to less than 60 this season and they won and covered the following game both times. They went wire to wire in a solid road dog win for us on Saturday over Northern Iowa. Tonight they take on an East Carolina team that dismantled Evansville at home, winning their 3rd straight home game. Now the Pirates will take to the road where they are not nearly as effective and they are 4-32 straight up and 13-23 to the spread as a road dog from +6.5 to +9. Look for Weber St to get the win and Cover here tonight.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ottawa at BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston prefers a slow-paced, defensive-style for conservative Coach Claude Julian on an 18-7-2 run under the total. They are 13th in goals scored, 3rd in goals allowed with the No. 1 penalty killing unit in the league. Into town comes Ottawa, tops in the NHL in goals allowed, just 2.1 per game) and second in penalty killing, but 25th in goals scored. They comes off a 4-0 loss at home to Toronto, going 0-for-5 on the power play. The under is 23-9-9 in the Senators last 41 games. The Senators remain just one of four teams (New York Islanders, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild) that have yet to allow a short-handed goal this season. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play the Senators/Bruins under the total.

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Seattle at OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm not a huge fan of playing chalk, but there are exceptions and this play is one of them. While I put a great deal of emphasis on metrics, there are still occasions when I will go with the eyes and that's the case here as the Mariners tangle with the A's in Oakland. I like Jarrod Parker to make some strides this season for the A's. He has fly ball tendencies, but that's not a bad thing in this cavernous park. Parker also has legit swing and miss stuff, and I can see his K rate rising this year. Don't pay much attention to some of the spring training stuff with Parker. He was working on a curve that isn't there yet, and that's what exhibition games are for. Parker was solid in this park last season and should flourish at home again. Iwamura is no pushover. The Mariners righty wasn't bad at all last season, although he was much stronger at home. The A's were shut down by King Felix last night, but I expect them to get a few across the plate tonight. I'll rely on Parker and that Oakland pen to make those scores stand up. The A's get the call as tonight's free opinion.

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Florida vs. Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These rivals have played three times this year: Tampa Bay won 5-2 at home on January 29th. The Lightning won 6-5 in Florida on February 16th, before also winning 3-2 on March 12th. Four of these teams last five in the series have sailed above the number, and I firmly believe that when the smoke clears at the end of this one, that we'll once again see another high-scoring shootout. Florida is 11-19-6, including 5-11-1 on the road. The  Panthers are coming off two straight victories, including an impressive 3-2 win over New Jersey on Saturday. Tampa Bay is 15-18-1, including 10-7-1 at home. The Lightning have also won two straight, including a 5-4 victory over the Devils on Friday. As with most totals selections, this is a situational play. This is the final game of a three game home stand for the Lightning before they head out for a three game road trip. Florida can leave everything it has on the ice this evening as it enjoys a rare three whole days off after this contest. With each side looking to continue to build the momentum they've recently created, expect these divisional rivals to push the pace of this contest, and for this one to sneak above the posted number.

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NHL PredictionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Lightning Over 3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a team total play, meaning we are betting on the Lightning to score OVER 3 goals.  I've made this bet before this season.  If they score 4+ goals we have a winner a 3 is a push.  You will be able to find this bet at all major sportsbooks, and if you can't bet this I would still place a bet on the game total going over 5.5.
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The Lightning are 3-0 this year against the Panthers, scoring 5, 6 and 3 goals in those victories.  The Lightning have actually won 7 straight meetings overall vs Florida and in those games they've scored over 3 goals 5 times.  Only once had they scored fewer than 3 that would give us a loss.  The Lightning are coming off a 5 goal shootout victory at home, and they've scored 15 goals in their last 4 home games.  Tampa Bay is 3rd in the NHL scoring 3.21 goals per game and that goes up to 3.5 goals per game at home.  Florida is last in the NHL allowing 3.44 goals per game. The OVER is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.  We'll go with Tampa Bay scoring OVER 3 goals tonight.

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Cleveland vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Jays host the Indians on Tuesday night with knuckleballer R.A. Dickey making his debut for Toronto. Dickey only made two actual Spring Training starts although he threw 102 pitches in eight innings on Friday against Philadelphia’s minor leaguers. Dickey is going against the Indians for the first time since 2010. He has had success against Mark Reynolds (0-6), Drew Stubbs (1-9), and Nick Swisher (2-12). Those are three of the new acquisitions Cleveland made in the offseason. None of them exactly inspire too much confidence for an offense that struggled at times last season. Opposing Dickey is Justin Masterson who is a talented pitcher that struggled to harness it last season with the Tribe. He struck out 14 in his last two starts of the Spring where he gave up 3 runs in 10 innings of work. Masterson actually had two good outings against Toronto last year giving up 1 run and seven hits in 15 innings striking out 15 while walking only two. JP Arencibia (1-5), Rajai Davis (1-7), Edwin Encarnacion (2-10), Maicer Izturis (2-12), Brett Lawrie (0-6) and Colby Rasmus (0-6) all have poor numbers against the Cleveland ace. It might take time for the Blue Jays lineup to get cranked up so we expect a low-scoring game between the Indians and Blue Jays on Tuesday night.

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU will meet their match here with the high flying Baylor Bears.  While Baylor is sparatic at times, their offense is on fire and they were one of the most talented teams in the Big 12 this year, they just let games get away from them with little or defense being played, but at times were unbeatable, like pounding Kansas in Waco at seasons end.  BYU has not faced a team as good as Baylor in the NIT, and Baylors speed and offense and uptempo style cannot be matched by the Cougs here.

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Tampa Bay/ Baltimore Under 7: For the most part this has been a low scoring series. The Under is 39-16-2 the last 57 meeting and 7 of the last 9 meetings last year failed to put more than 5 runs on the board. Jason Hammel had a good year for the O's last year and he allowed just 1 ER on 1 hit in 3.2 innings vs the Rays last year. David Price is the ace of the Rays squad and he is very good in this park. Last year in 13 starts here he had a 1.81 ERA, while posting just a 2.61 ERA in his career in this park. David has allowed just 2 ER's, combined, in his last 4 starts vs the O's, while in 12 career starts vs them he has a 2,21 ERA. Neither offense is all that powerful as these teams are built around their pitching and this is clearly an Under park. Not allot of offense should be expected in this one. 
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OAKLAND -145 over Seattle: Last night these Oakland bats were held in check by King Felix, but I feel they should wake up tonight vs Iwakuma. Hisashi face Oakland once last year and they tagged him for 4 ER's in just 3.2 innings of work and despite a 3-2 mark on the road he did have a 4.20 ERA. Jarrod Parker did struggle in a start vs the M's here last year, but also had a nice showing vs them on the road. Current Seattle batters have hit just .174 off of Parker (46 AB's), with just 3 doubles and 3 RBI's. Last night Brett Anderson held the M's to just 2 ER's in 7 innings and I feel that Parker can have a good showing vs a Seattle offense that really lacks punch. Look for Parker to outduel Iwakuma tonight, getting Oakland their first win of the 2013 season.

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WEBER STATE -8 over East Carolina: Weber State has been dominant at home this year, going 17-1 SU (9-5-1 ATS) while outscoring their opponents by 18.1 ppg on their home floor. Both teams are solid at the offensive end as they are 69th and 62nd in offensive efficiency, but defensively and the home court are where the Wildcats have huge edges. Don't let the fact that ECU has allowed just 62.8 ppg on 38.2% shooting in their last 5 games fool you. 4 of those games were at home and 2 of them were vs slower paced MAAC team and another was vs a very slow paced Savannah State squad. One of their last 5 were vs a good scoring Tulsa squad, on a neutral court and they allowed 79 points in that one. Struggling on defense away from home is nothing new for this squad as they have allowed 75.4 ppg on 44.7% shooting overall and 36.7% from long range on the road this year. Not good news for the Pirates as the Wildcats average 76.4 ppg on 51.7% shooting at home, while also hitting 40.4% from long range. Defense though is where i said that the Wildcats have the bigger edge. Weber State has allowed just 58.3 ppg on 39.1% shooting overall and 25.7% from long range. This team is very tough defensively at home and they will shut down ECU, while their own offenses picks apart this porous Pirate defense. Weber State by 12+ here.

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New York Knicks +7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The New York Knicks have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they sit just 0.5 games behind Indiana for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They want home-court advantage through the first two rounds, and they are playing like it.
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New York has won eight straight games heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat. It has also gone a superb 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. This is a team that has saved its best basketball for last.
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While the Knicks have a ton to play for, the Heat do not. In fact, Miami already has the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference wrapped up. Sure, it still wants to lock up home-court advantage throughout by finishing with a better record than the Western Conference's No. 1 seed, but that's not a priority.
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The Knicks come into this game with a lot of confidence because of how well they have played the Heat this season. In fact, they have won two of the three meetings thus far, winning 104-84 at home on November 2nd, and 112-92 on the road on December 6th. Their lone loss came by a final of 99-93 on March 3rd after blowing a 59-45 halftime lead.
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New York is 23-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games since 1996. The Knicks are 10-1 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 1-9 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. Worse yet, Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

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St. Louis Cardinals +112FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals are showing value in the underdog role with Jaime Garcia on the hill. Dating back to last season, the Cards have won each of the southpaws last 4 starts. It is also worth noting that he is 2-0 lifetime against Arizona with an ERA of 2.45. The Red Birds dropped the first game of the series but are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss and have still won 7 of the last 9 meetings, including 4 of the last 5 in Arizona. Take St. Louis.

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Texas Rangers -1½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston is a team that is bound to lose 100 games for the third consecutive season. They pulled off a surprising win last night but their luck has run out already when they face off against Yu Darvish today. Darvish finished 2012 with a 16-9 record and a 3.90 ERA. The Rangers have high hopes for an even better 2013 from Darvish as this young pitcher games more experience.
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Houston is 19-62 when playing as an underdog of +150 or more. Texas should be able to take batting practice against the horrible Houston bullpen and they should not have any problems getting runs on the board against Lucas Harrel who finished 2012 with an 11-11 record in 32 starts. If Harrell doesn’t blow this game the Astros bullpen will making the Rangers on the run line a value play.

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Wunderdog

New York Knicks at Miami
Pick: Under 196.5

This is a big game for the Knicks. They are playing their best basketball of the season, winning eight straight games, and could be on a collision course with Miami for the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks have done a great job this season in matching the defensive intensity of the Heat, as they have held them to 91.7 points per game in the three meetings this season. The Knicks have not allowed any team more than 102 points in the eight-game winning streak, and I expect them to bring it on defense here especially with LeBron, Wade and Chalmers all likely out for this game. Miami has allowed 100+ points just two times in their last 18 games, with no one scoring over 103, so this total looks a little too ambitious to me. The Knicks are 11-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 15 vs. a winning team, and the UNDER is an identical 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs. In the Eric Spoelstra era, the Heat are 105-82 UNDER to a total set in the 190s and 104-77 UNDER after back-to-back wins. Go with the UNDER.

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MLB Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +128

Like I said in preseason I'm a Blue Jays fan and I will be watching my wagers on them closely to make sure I've got a good record when betting on their games. And I won't be afraid to bet against them either. But tonight we are taking them by 2 on the run line in their season opener. This is season the 20 year anniversary of their last World Series, and the Blue Jays have loaded up their lineup in the off season with trades and free agency. Included in their new acquisitions was NL Cy Young winner R.A Dickey. Dickey will get the opening day start for the Blue Jays after posting a 20-6 record with a 2.73 ERA, .226 opponents batting average (OBA) and 1.05 WHIP last season with the Mets. He will be up against Justin Masterson who had a good opening day last year against the Blue Jays (although the Indians lost). This time around Masterson wil face a much tougher lineup and will have to pitch in a loud Rogers Centre. Last year Masterson went 11-15 with a 4.93 ERA, .269 OBA, and 1.45 WHIP. To finish off the season last year the Indians were 18-45 over their last 63 games and 15-39 in their last 54 road games. One stat I really like in Toronto's favor is that Masterson has a career .292 OBA against left handed hitters, and the Blue Jays will have 6 left handed or switch hitters in their Opening Day line up. Cleveland went out and did a good job with free agency themselves, but their rotation is questionable and the oddsmakers have them struggling again this year. Note that the Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings vs the Indians. I'm on the Blue Jays to win by a couple runs here in their home opener.

Blade
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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 2

Sam Martin

Iowa at Maryland
Prediction: Iowa

We're going to lay the small number with Iowa tonight in the second NIT Semifinal, as we think their road offense is a bit more reliable than Maryland's. The Terps were just 7-9 straight up away from home this season, with their scoring falling five points per game down from their season average. Their shooting percentage also dropped considerably, shooting 46.5% on the season but just 42% away from home. They have played just one road game in this NIT Tournament, escaping with a one-point win at Alabama despite owning a +10% shooting edge and scoring just 58 points. They won't be so lucky tonight as Iowa does just enough offensively to get by.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 2

Freddy Wills

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics 

I really expected the A's to put together a better performance last night vs. Felix Hernandez, but again like I said he's the best pitcher in baseball. Tonight will be a different story with Iwakuma taking the mound. Iwakuma had a poor outing vs. the A's in spring training and he gave up 10 BR in 3.2 IP along with 4 ER in a start last year. The Mariners are still just 1-7 in their last 8 meetings with the A's while Oakland is 41-17 in their last 58 home games. I really like the A's as a team and I think they will come back tonight and beat a pitcher they are supposed to with arguably one of their better pitchers on the mound. Jarrod Parker had a rough spring, but he was playing around a lot with new pitches and now it's back to basics for him which should mean more quality starts. Parker's control improved late last season which is something I think carries over into this season and at home where he had a 2.61 ERA a year ago. Seattle's roster has 51 AB against him with a .448 OPS. Both of these pitchers gave up over 3 BB's per 9 a year ago and the difference will be Oakland was one of the better teams (2nd) at laying off pitches outside the zone so they should work themselves into good counts. They also were #1 in fly ball % at 39.6% and I bring that up because there were only 4 pitchers with at least 125 IP last year that had higher HR/FB % than Iwakuma at 17%. The A's have some pop ranking 11th with 11.9% HR/FB and Cespedes is 2-4 with a HR vs. Iwakuma. I think the A's are a nice match up here.

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