Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

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SMU at UABFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UABFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UAB got off to a sluggish start to C-USA play in part because six of its first seven games were against the top five teams in the conference. During that span they were overwhelmed at times but towards the end of that stretch we saw some potential as the Blazers beat UTEP and lost to a quality Southern Miss squad by four. Once the schedule got softer, UAB was able to parlay those experiences and pointspread value into a current 5-1 SU/ATS run. Some of that value has worn off but the fact remains, this is a much improved team, playing its best of the season, at home, against a weak opponent.
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"If you plan it, I was planning a few more wins earlier in the year," Haase said. "This is the time to be playing the best basketball and that certainly is the case for us. We've been continuing to get better every year."
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SMU has been competitive in Larry Brown's first season but they don't have much of a track record on the road in C-USA play even against mediocre opponents with losses by 11, 9, 9, and 11. Their road wins were against Rice (5-22) and Marshall (the most schizophrenic in the country).
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Statistically, from a conference play perspective, there isn't much that separates these two teams. But, when we consider current form and venue, the modest price is worth a play on the home side.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

SPORTS WAGERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ottawa +152 over PHILADELPHIA
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OT included. Since suffering the most key injuries of any team in the NHL, the Ottawa Senators continue to thrive. The Sens have picked up points in six straight games, winning five and losing just one in OT to the Bruins in Boston. Ottawa is receiving outstanding goaltending from Ben Bishop, they give you very little space out there and the Sens’ style is one the Flyers are not comfortable playing against. Philly much prefers those wide-open, high scoring games but chances are they won’t get that here.
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Ilya Bryzgalov has been inconsistent for Philadelphia and anytime a club has an edge in net, as the Sens do here, they have a good chance of winning. Among other factors that make the Flyers unappealing here is that they’re 1-5 in their last six games following a win. Philly is also 0-4 against the Northeast Division while the Senators are 4-0 this season when playing on one day’s rest. Current flows suggest that the Senators most certainly warrant a play.

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Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee BucksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BucksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucks are trying to hang on to their playoff spot, which is gradually seemingly slipping from them. They have been playing feebly since the end of January. The Raptors defend the 3 ball well, which will be important, going against the 3 point assault of Milwaukee. Toronto has been awful on the road, which looks gloomy for them traveling to Milwaukee here. Even though the Bucks don’t play necessarily tough at home, but it will be enough, the Bucks can cause some turnovers, with their pressure D from Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, and of course, Larry Sanders in the paint with his big mitts.

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Youngstown State vs. Wright State
Play: Wright StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Youngstown St put up a valiant effort in their last game at Valparaiso as the Penguins only lost that game 73-64. They actually held a 7-point lead at the half, but couldn’t hold on to that lead. Youngstown St has played their last two games without leading scorer Kenrick Perry, and they’ve put-up back-to-back solid efforts. The Penguins are now in a letdown spot after losing a close game to the conference leader, and without Perry’s services for this game, we expect Youngstown St to throw in a clunker this afternoon. Wright St will be playing their final home game of the season, and the Raiders will come with a peak performance. They come into today’s game off back-to-back losses, including a loss in their most recent home game. Wright St has played well at home all season as they are holding opponents to just 59 points per game on their court. The Raiders also play at a slow pace which is the opposite of Youngstown St’s preferred fast-pace style. Wright St also holds an inside edge in this game which will allow them to get some easy baskets and also more free throw attempts; they hit 71.7% from the free throw line. We like the setup for this game so we’ll lay the points with the home team as they come with a strong effort and win this game by double digits.

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New Jersey -106 over BUFFALOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT Included. While struggling, the Sabres made an ill-advised coaching change and they subsequently lost their next two games. What followed that was a two-game trip to Florida, where Buffalo won a pair of games over the Panthers and Lightning. Suddenly things don’t look so bad anymore. Or so it seems. Those two wins are fool’s gold as the Sabres were completely dominated by both the Bolts and Panthers. Combined, Buffalo was outshot 74-46 and out-chanced by an incredible 42-15 count in that pair of wins. Chalk four points up to Ryan Miller but winning games when being so badly outclassed is unsustainable.
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The Devils come in here as hungry for a win as any team in the NHL. New Jersey has dropped five of six and that allows us an opportunity to buy low. Unlike the Sabres, the Devils are not getting outplayed. They’ve hit a bit of a snag in their offense but they continue to play a systematic, strong game night in and night out. New Jersey allows its opponents very few scoring chances and in order for the Sabres to win here they’re likely going to need another huge game from Ryan Miller. A disciplined and well-coached New Jersey club easily gets the call here against a team that remains in trouble.
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Anaheim +105 over PHOENIXFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Two seasons ago Mike Smith was Tampa Bay’s #1 goaltender. That didn’t last too long mainly due to his mediocrity and Dwayne Roloson became the Bolts’ top guy. Smith was subsequently dealt to Phoenix, where he was a contender last season for the Hart Trophy, a prize awarded to the player most valuable to his team. This season, he’s back to being Mike Smith, a career average goaltender that has had one great season in seven years as a pro. The Coyotes have lost three of their past four games. Against the offensively challenged Wild and Flames, Smith allowed four and five goals respectively. Against the Blue Jackets recently, the netminder allowed three goals on 20 shots and when the high-powered Blackhawks came in here in January, Smith allowed six goals on 16 shots. The Ducks offense has scored one less goal than Chicago’s in two less games.
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Anaheim is as good as its 15-3-1 record suggests. They’re an offensive powerhouse with solid goaltending and quick, puck-moving defensemen. The Ducks lost to Phoenix on March 31 last season by a score of 4-0. That’s after Anaheim was officially eliminated from playoff contention. Prior to that game, they Ducks beat the Coyotes, 4-1, 6-2, and 4-1 in the other three games played last season. This year, the Ducks are better, the Coyotes are worse and Mike Smith isn’t bailing out the host anymore
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Los Angeles +111 over VANCOUVERFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. These two have played one game against each other this year back on Jan 28 and the Kings won 3-2 in OT. That was when the Kings were not sharp. As an eight seed in last year’s playoffs against the top-seeded Canucks, it was a complete whitewash by the Kings as they disposed of these Canucks in five games. Now the Kings are hot again, having won six straight with most of those being in dominating fashion. Psychologically, physically and momentum wise, give a huge edge to the Kings, as they know they have this hosts’ number and there’s nothing Vancouver can do about it.
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The Canucks have dropped five of seven including an 8-3 loss to the Red Wings. They’ve now allowed 12 goals against in their past two and four goals or more against in all five of those losses. The Kings are 5-1 in the last six meetings and 4-1 in the last five in Vancouver. No reason to believe that is about to change here.
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Nashville +133 over SAN JOSEFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Following the Predators 5-1 loss at Anaheim on Wednesday, long time Nashville coach Barry Trotz was livid, saying it was the worst effort he’s ever had in the 13 years he’s been behind the Nashville bench. No team in the NHL has been as resilient as this Nashville group has been over the years. Every time the Predators are written off, they respond and we can almost assure you a strong and extremely focused effort tonight against this beatable favorite.
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San Jose has two wins over its last dozen games and one of those occurred in OT against the Avalanche at the Shark Tank. Over that stretch, the Sharks have scored one goal or less in eight of 12 games. For San Jose, the issues that has haunted them in the playoffs for years, that being the inability to perform under pressure, remains the same, only this season it has carried over to the fast-paced and pressure filled regular season. The Sharkies have no appeal as a significant favorite over a Nashville team and coach that is rested and in a very foul mood.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Illinois vs. DrakeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DrakeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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At 7-10 in Missouri Valley Conference play, the Bulldogs are a team that still believes it can make some noise. Drake has saved its best basketball for the stretch run, reeling off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. This is a prime opportunity to catch a bad road team flat-footed in Southern Illinois. Note that the Salukis are a miserable 3-11 away from home this season, and coming off an upset win over Northern Iowa on Wednesday, they're in a tough spot here. In fact, Southern Illinois is coming off back-to-back home victories - I just don't see that success translating to the road on Saturday. It's been a struggle for the Salukis to get into the high-50s in most road tilts this season, and that doesn't bode well as they prepare to face a Drake squad that is rounding into form defensively, having given up 54 and 56 points while holding its last two opponents to a combined 36-for-105 shooting. Drake has certainly had Southern Illinois' number in this series, taking eight straight meetings, both SU and ATS. This is by no means the best Salukis squad the Bulldogs will have faced over that period. Keep in mind, five of their last eight wins over Southern Illinois have come in the underdog role. I don't mind laying a handful of points with Drake in this spot, as it aims to keep the ball rolling with the MVC Tournament quickly approaching.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

King CreoleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa  +14.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawkeyes take to the Big 10 road with REVENGE in their hearts from the earlier loss to Indiana back on New Years Eve. In that game, the Hawkeyes were +7 pts at home, and lost a heartbreaker by the score of 69 to 65.
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Give Iowa some points and the extra incentive of Revenge, and you'll likely bring home the bacon. The HAWKEYES have gone 6-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons as Conference dogs playing with 'SSR1' (same-season single Revenge)... and a PERFECT 5-0 ATS in the last 2 years.
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The good news for us is that Iowa has DOMINATED this foe in the past. They've gone 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings over the past 4 seasons. They've gone 10-2 ATS as DOGS since the 2002 season. That includes 6-1 ATS when playing off a SU win.
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Current 'in-season' REVENGE situations also tell us to grab the points with the road Hawkeyes.
20-6 ATS this season: All > .500 conference underdogs playing with 'SSR1' (IOWA) versus any opponent off a SU loss (Indiana). These teams have gone 13-2 ATS if their opponent was a FAVORITE in their last game (like Indiana).
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Indiana went into Minnesota in their last game as a conference road favorite... and were SHOCKED by the Gophers, losing 77 to 73.
1-8-1 ATS since 1993: All BIG 10 teams playing off a SU conference road loss of 4 > pts in a game in which they were a FAV of -4 > pts (Indiana)... versus an opponent off a SU win (Iowa).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

Dave Price

Creighton -5½

It looked like Wichita State might cruise to a second straight MVC title when Creighton lost 3 in a row at the beginning of February. But the Blue Jays have battled back with 3 consecutive conference wins and now have an opportunity to win the Valley on their home floor. I like them to get it done and to cover the spread in the process. The Shockers won the first meeting by 3 points, but Creighton is on an impressive 47-28 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 73.4 to 66.1 in this situation. The Jays are 14-2 at home this season and when they win they win big. All 14 of these wins have come by double digits. The Jays are also 13-2 in their last 15 home games against Wichita State. These two losses have occurred in the last two meetings, which should only fuel Creighton's fire. It's been an awesome season for Wichita State considering all they lost off last year's team. However, Creighton is the better ball club, it's at home, it's out for revenge and it's out for the MVC crown. Lay the points.

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Dave Cokin

Notre Dame at Marquette
Pick: Notre Dame

Mike Bray is a tremendous coach and when he has extra time to prep, the Notre Dame mentor is just about money in the bank. That's especially true when Bray and the Irish get points, as is the case today against Marquette. This is not exactly a bold move on my part calling for the upset, as I've been saying all season that Marquette is just not all that good. For that matter, neither are the Irish. But Notre Dame is in my estimation the better fundamental team. With the ample prep time, they should be able to defend the paint well and if they can do that, Marquette is going to be in trouble, as they're pretty bad from the perimeter. Plenty of room for a little error with the number where it is, so let's go Notre Dame plus the points.

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Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force at Fresno StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force has more than double the conference wins (7) than does Fresno State (3) this season. Air Force scores an average of around 12 more points per game than do the Bulldogs of Fresno State. Over the last 5 games, the Air Force Falcons have shot over 50% from the floor & 35% from behind the arc. On the flip side, the Bulldogs has shot a measly 38.5% from the floor over their last 5 games. Air Force is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games, and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Falcons also took the last meeting between these two teams earlier this season, a 62-50 home victory back on Jan. 30th. Play Air Force.

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Harry BondiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MILWAUKEE (-5.5) over TorontoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto won six out of its first eight games after the big Rudy Gay trade, but the tide has suddenly turned against the Raptors. Following last night's loss to Indiana, Toronto has dropped three in a row both straight up and against the spread and, making matters worse, Gay is struggling with a back injury. Now the team plays its third game in four nights against a Milwaukee team that is playing as well as it has all season as it makes a push for a playoff bid. Toronto's tailspin continues as the Bucks get the easy home win.

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Frank Jordan

Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Brooklyn Nets 

These two teams are fighting for playoff positioning as they sit at the five and six seeds in the East. Brooklyn is 34-25 with a winning record on the road at 14-12 as they head to Chicago. The Bulls are a better road teams, but this game is in the windy city where they are just 16-14. Chicago has lost six of 10, but are coming off a big win over Philadelphia and could be taken this game for vantage with a game tomorrow with Indiana. Look for the Nets to get back to their winning ways and eye up the top half of the Eastern conference standings. Play Brooklyn

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 2

LEGIT PICKS

Saturday 3/2/13 Plays...

3* MIAMI OHIO +2 (12PM PST)

---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--

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Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

HAWAII -4 over Cal- Poly SLO: (Added) Good thing I sleep very little as this game starts at 12:30 am my time, but I'm always up  for staying up for a winner. The Rainbows haven't played well on the mainland this year, but at home they have gone 14-5 and they do have some big blowout wins on this floor, beating N. Arizona by 34, Long Beach State by 21 and UC Riverside by 15. Cal-Poly has had a nice year so far, but most of their damage has been done at home, where they are 11-1. on the road they have struggled, going 3-11 and it is very tough for teams to be fully ready to play when they head to the Islands. Let's also note that this is Hawaii's best team in years  and they have triple revenge for this one, especially in their last meeting this year, which was a 29 point home win by Cal-Poly. Look for Hawaii to continue to play well at home as they take this one by nearly DD.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Butler +7 over VCU: Both of these team have had nice years once again and both are in a battle for the A-10 title in their first years in the league. I know that VCU is at home where they have gone 13-2 on the year, but I don't feel that they should be a favorite of this much. Butler has just two losses on the year of more than 4 points and they are a solid 6-2 SU on the road. This team play s very hard and in this nationally televised game you can bet they will play hard once again and till the final buzzer. VCU does have the advantage on the offensive end, but Butler gets a slight edge on defense allowing just 62.6 ppg on 41.1% shooting, while VCU allows 63.8 ppg on 44.1% shooting. On the road the Bulldogs have been a bit tougher allowing teams to hit just 38.5% of their shots. Defense will be key here and I feel that Butler's defense will be enough to keep this one close. No


Alabama +16.5 over FLORIDA: I know that Florida has outscored their opponent by a gazzillion ppg at home, but this is not a series that has had many blowouts over the years. In the last 10 meetings between these teams there has been just one game that decided by more than 11 points and 8 of those games have been decided by single digits. The Gators have the clear advantage on offense, but both of these defenses are very tough. The Gators come in having allowed just 53.5 ppg overall and they are 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Bama has allowed 58.5 ppg overall, including a mere 51.8 ppg in their last 12 non-OT games. In those 12 games they allowed more than 56 points (58) just once. This team plays some lock down defense. In a game where the pace should be slow (both teams are 294th or higher in pace), limiting possessions and with two awesome defenses teams on the court we should get another tight ball game here with the Gators winning by no more than 8 or 9.Yes


MTSU/ Western Kentucky Over 130:  Neither team plays at a high tempo but these two teams are 1 & 2 in offensive efficiency in Sun Belt games this year. MTSU has been excellent on offense of late, having scored at least 66 points in each of their last 13 games, averaging 75.6 ppg over that stretch. On the road, MTSU has hit at least 66 points in each of their last 6 away from home, averaging 68 ppg over that stretch. Defensively MTSU is one of the best in the Sun Belt, but WKU's offense has been nearly unstoppable of late, averaging 80.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Hilltoppers have scored 65 or more in 7 of their last 8 games and they have averaged 69.5 ppg at home. WKU's games have been very high scoring in their last 5 games and it isn't just due to their offense, but because of a defense that has allowed 75.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Both offenses are rolling right now and one team can play defense at all right now. I clearly expect both team to put up at least 65 in this one and overall I will call for at least 140 points scored.


Idaho State/ Sacramento State Over 114.5: Idaho State has really struggled to score on the road this year, as they have averaged just 49.9 ppg away from home, but they have scored in the 50's in 3 of their last 4 games on the road and Sacramento state is not a great defensive team, allowing 66.2 ppg overall and 65.6 ppg at home. I can see IDSU putting up at least 58 points like in their last road game vs Northern Arizona. Sacramento state is an average offensive team at best, averaging 64.3 ppg overall, but they do average 67.9 ppg at home and IDSU allows 64.3 ppg on the road, so I do expect Sac State to put up at least 60 in this one. Sac State is 2-5 to the Under at home, but the lowest OU line in their home games has been 128.5 and their home games on the year have averaged 133.3 ppg. I look for at least 120 points in this one.


DUKE -7 over Miami:  This game just screams revenge and blowout. Ok maybe Duke won't win by 27 points like Miami did in the last meeting, but they should take this one by at least 12 points. Duke was humiliated in their last game vs Miami and had to see the Canes students storm the court, after that win.Duke is a perfect 14-0 at home this year and they have outscored those opponent by 20 ppg on their home floor. Miami has had a great season so far and they bounced back from their initial ACC loss by beating Va Tech on Wednesday, but still down the stretch they haven't been that dominant, especially on off where they have averaged just 62.5 ppg in their last 5 games. Duke does allow just 61.6 ppg on 39.2% shooting at home and they average 81.6 ppg at Cameron Indoor, so I do not see the Canes getting enough  points to keep this one close. Also getting Duke off a loss vs Virginia is a plus here as well. They will be fully focused and motivated and should win this one by DD.

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