2012 UFC 156 Betting Odds & Card for Aldo vs. Edgar

2012 UFC 156 Betting Odds & Card for Aldo vs. Edgar

2012 UFC 156 Betting Odds & Card for Aldo vs. Edgar
By Drew Sharper

LAS VEGAS, NV (TheSpread) – The UFC Featherweight Championship is on the line in a super fight as the main event of UFC 156 on Saturday. Here is a look at the odds for this PPV card.

UFC 156 will take place from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada with the main card bouts airing live on PPV at 10PM ET.

The main event of Saturday’s card is a bout for the UFC Featherweight Championship with champion Jose Aldo (21-1) defending his title against Frankie Edgar (15-3-1). According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Aldo is the favorite to win this bout, as he has odds of -220 to win, while Edgar has a money line of +180. Edgar is a former lightweight champion and is making his debut at 145 pounds to challenge the dominant champion, Aldo, who has not lost since 2005. Aldo had largely dominated his competition and is considered one of the top fighters in the world, regardless of weight class. Edgar is coming off a pair of close decision losses to Benson Henderson, which essentially put him out of the lightweight title picture. He is now moving down to featherweight, which is probably a better natural fit for him. Still, he has yet to fight at this weight class, so he may have trouble adjusting to the changes against an elite fighter like Aldo.

The co-main event of Saturday’s card is a light heavyweight clash between Rashad Evans (17-2-1) and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5). According to oddsmakers, Evans is the clear favorite to win, as he has odds of -455 to win, while Nogueira has a money line of +355. Both men are solid strikers, while Evans has a solid wrestling game and Nogueira has a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Evans is the better fighter on paper, but Nogueria has knockout power and Evans has been knocked out in the past. The key to this fight will be Evans mixing up his strikes and takedowns, along with staying light on his feet and not allowing Nogueira to land the big punch.

Bet on UFC Odds

For the odds available for the main card of UFC 156, see below.

UFC 156 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Featherweight Championship Bout


Frankie Edgar +180
Jose Aldo -220

Light Heavyweight Bout

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +355
Rashad Evans -455

Heavyweight Bout


Antonio Silva +290
Alistair Overeem -360

Welterweight Bout

Demian Maia +155
Jon Fitch -185

Flyweight Bout

Ian McCall +210
Joseph Benavidez -260

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Re: 2012 UFC 156 Betting Odds & Card for Aldo vs. Edgar

UFC 156 Betting Notes
By Sportsbook.ag
                                                                                                                 
Jose Aldo (21-1) vs. Frankie Edgar (14-3-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Aldo -220, Edgar +170

Frankie Edgar will look to be the first to finally dethrone Jose Aldo as the two headline UFC 156’s main card on Saturday night with the featherweight title bout.

Edgar is going for the record books in this one, looking to be just the third UFC fighter to hold titles in two different divisions in his career. A previous lightweight champion, this will be his first featherweight bout. And it won’t be easy for him getting thrown into the fire against the world’s top featherweight who is only getting better at age 26. Aldo has easily fended off whomever UFC President Dana White has thrown his way, beating top fighters such as Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick in his past three fights.

Since winning the WEC featherweight championship in 2009, Aldo has defended his belt a total of five times and three times for UFC since his title was promoted. Knockouts are his favorite way to win with 13 of his 21 career wins coming that way. That includes his last fight against Mendes, who did not make it out of the first round. "Junior" Aldo is also comfortable taking it to the judges, however, as he did against Florian and Hominick, winning unanimous decisions in both bouts. Aldo’s ground game is as good as it comes in MMA and his legs will be able to help him endure this potentially long championship bout. Also, at 5-foot-7, he has a one-inch height advantage on Edgar.

Edgar is coming off two losses, both decisions to Benson Henderson for the UFC lightweight belt. The second of those was a split decision but sparked Edgar’s decision to move to the featherweight division where he could earn another title attempt. "The Answer" Edgar’s endurance is his key, with eight of his 14 career wins coming via decision. A talented wrestler, he’ll need to really try to make Aldo work early in order to have a chance of tiring him out and scoring points with the judges.

Joey Oddessa Analysis

"It's tough to find a better more intriguing championship bout in the last couple years. Both guys are incredible fighters but I think the layoff is going to be significant for Aldo and Edgar may not lose a round after round one. If Frankie can avoid damage and has an answer for Aldo's kicks, we'll see a new World Champion. Frankie Edgar."
                                                                                                                 
Rashad Evans (22-2-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Evans -600, Nogueira +400

Two fighters who need to shake off some rust will come to blows on the main card of UFC 156 on Saturday night as Rashad Evans and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira take the Octagon.

Evans last fought in April 2012, losing by a unanimous decision to Jon Jones for the light heavyweight belt. Nogueira has been out of the game even longer, not having fought since his win against Tito Ortiz in December 2011. Evans is a heavy, heavy favorite in this one as one of the top-ranked fighters in this division. But Nogueira deserves more credit than he’s receiving, even at the age of 36. He owns a three-inch height advantage on Evans and has beaten some of the best fighters in the world throughout his career, even if he isn’t quite the fighter he once was.

Prior to losing to Jones, Evans won four straight against Phil Davis, Tito Ortiz, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Thiago Silva. Three of those wins were unanimous decisions while the win against Ortiz was an emphatic second-round TKO. Before that winning streak, Evans lost to Lyoto Machida, surrendering the UFC light heavyweight belt he took from Forest Griffin in the previous fight. A wrestler and boxer, "Suga" Evans can strike well, but the takedowns are the crux of his game. It also makes him incredibly difficult to take down, as he is one of the best defenders in the world.

Nogueira is a flexible fighter with the ability to win whatever way presents itself. With 20 career wins, he has won eight times from the judges and six teams each via submission and knockout. In his last fight, he knocked out Tito Ortiz in the first round. Nogueira is an excellent boxer and fortunately for him his style may match up well against Evans because Nogueira does not focus on takedowns. Rather, he is a strong striker with good Jiu-Jitsu skills and the potential to earn a submission at any point. It may appear unlikely that he wins this one, but he has a chance better than these odds give him credit for.

Joey Oddessa Analysis

"Old Pride vet vs career UFC vet. I expect Evans wrestling to be too much for little Nog much like the wrestlers on  Nog's resumee. Rashad should handle him if he avoids any kind of bout ending shot to the chin.
                                                                                                                   
Alistair Overeem (36-11-1) vs. Antonio Silva (17-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Overeem -370, Silva +280

Back from a suspension due to a failed drug test that his kept him out of UFC since December 2011, Alistair Overeem will take on Antonio Silva on UFC 156’s main card heavyweight bout on Saturday night.

Overeem is an elite fighter having won 11 consecutive fights dating back to 2007 with one no-contest mixed in. His most recent wins, in 2011, were a quick TKO against Brock Lesnar and Fabricio Werdum. Those skills set him as a heavy favorite here, but Silva deserves some credit coming off his first UFC win. In that bout, he quickly KO-ed Travis Browne, who had been considered one of the rising stars in the heavyweight division. Prior to that, Silva was knocked out in the first round in two consecutive fights by Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier. While Overeem has been more consistently dominant, it’s tough to know exactly what the The Reem will bring to the table after so long away from the Octagon.

The one thing about a fight with Overeem is that it will probably not go to the judges. With 36 career wins, he has won via decision just twice, owning 15 knockouts and 19 submissions to his name. Kickboxing is the main part of his game while he also incorporates Muay Thai and some grappling as he seeks a balanced, but aggressive approach. At 6-foot-5, he has a one-inch height advantage on Silva, but in this fight between two giants, that won’t matter as much as the condition they are in. If Overeem is the same fighter he was before the suspension, this fight should be his. But that is far from a guarantee.

Like Overeem, Silva likes to get fights done early and also just has two decision wins to his name. Twelve of his 17 career wins have been knockouts while he also has three submissions. Those submissions are a credit to his Jiu-Jitsu skills, but that also makes up a small part of his attack, as his karate and judo are more the basis of his style. An aggressive striker, Silva is agile and brings strong technique to the Octagon, making an opponent beat him rather than beating himself. If he capitalizes when Overeem gives him opportunities, this could be an upset in the making.

Joey Oddessa Analysis

"Don't blink. Both these guys can punch, both have KO power, and both hav esuspect chins. You won't catch me laying a big price on the favorite here. Silva is as live as anyone that fought Overeem in the past few years and arguably better than any of Reem's recent opposition. A winnable bout for Silva if his head is right. Otherwise his head could get pulled over for speeding in the first row."

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Re: 2012 UFC 156 Betting Odds & Card for Aldo vs. Edgar

UFC 156: Aldo vs. Edgar
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Gamblers have a stacked mixed martial arts card to wager on Saturday night at UFC 156 in Las Vegas at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. The main event will be for the promotion’s featherweight belt as Jose Aldo Jr. returns from a one-year layoff to take on division newcomer and former lightweight champ, Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar.

As of Friday morning, most betting shops had Aldo (21-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) installed as a minus-220 favorite. Edgar is listed as a generous plus-180 underdog (risk $100 to win $180).

The price for the fight to go to a decision after five rounds is minus-150 (risk $150 to win $100), while bettors can collect a plus-110 payout if either fighter gets a finish.

For Edgar to win inside the distance, a lucrative plus-950 payout can be garnered.

Aldo has won 14 consecutive fights, including three successful defenses of his 145-pound belt in the UFC. Aldo, who hasn’t tasted defeat in more than seven years, won a unanimous decision over Mark ‘The Machine’ Hominick in his Octagon debut at UFC 129.

In his next title defense at UFC 136 in Houston, Aldo beat Kenny Florian by unanimous decision. Then in Rio at UFC 142 on Jan. 14 of 2012, Aldo finished previously-unbeaten Chad Mendes with a big knee with one second remaining in the first round.

Edgar (15-3-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) has lost back-to-back fights by close decisions against current 155-pound kingpin, Benson ‘Smooth’ Henderson. However, BrianEdwardsSports.com scored the rematch vs. Henderson at UFC 150 in favor of Edgar by a 49-46 score.

Henderson won by split decision and with two victories over Edgar, it was time for the New Jersey native to drop down to his natural fighting weight of 145. In the lightweight loop, Edgar often faced foes on fight night that were 20 pounds heavier.

Nevertheless, he didn’t have problems scoring takedowns against the likes of B.J. Penn, Gray Maynard and Henderson. Like Aldo, a big part of Henderson’s offense is his kicks but at UFC 150, Edgar did an excellent job of catching Henderson’s kicks and then countering with a takedown.

If Edgar can do that against a bigger and stronger Henderson, you would think he could do the same against Aldo. Although Aldo is faster than Henderson, Edgar has much better speed than Aldo’s previous Octagon victims in Hominick, Florian and Mendes.

In 13 Octagon appearances, Edgar’s fights have gone to the judges 10 times, including six in a row. All six of those bouts were title fights, two apiece against Penn, Maynard and Henderson. Aldo’s fights with Hominick and Florian went the five-round distance.

Prediction: I like Edgar to win and cash a nice plus-180 underdog ticket. Edgar has as good a chin and as much heart as any mixed martial artist in any division. And he’s starving for a victory after getting robbed against Henderson at UFC 150. Two things you’ve never seen Edgar struggle with are cardio and taking a punch. As for Aldo, might cardio be an issue considering the long layoff? The champ certainly looked tired in Round 5 against Hominick when he couldn’t get off of his back in the final minutes.

When I appeared on Jason Floyd’s podcast on The MMA Report earlier this week, Floyd agreed that Edgar was his pick. Floyd added, “I’m a big believer in cage rust and I think that will be a factor for Aldo.”

In the co-main event, ‘Suga’ Rashad Evans (17-2-1 MMA, 12-2-1 UFC) will return to the Octagon for the first time since losing a unanimous decision to his nemesis, Jon ‘Bones’ Jones, in a light heavyweight championship fight at UFC 145 in Atlanta last April.

Evans went the distance with Jones, but the Michigan St. wrestler was dominated in every round except for the second. Not to the point that nearly every other one of Jones’s foes has taken a ferocious beating, but Evans couldn’t close the distance and only mounted an offensive threat in Round 2.

As Evans preps for another run at the belt, he does so in a much better frame of mind than when he faced Jones at Philips Arena. His divorce is further into the past and the emergence of his new ‘Blackzilians’ gym in South Fla. seems to have diminished his bitterness about his fallout with Jones and former trainer Greg Jackson.

I get the sense that Evans is poised to put on a dominating performance in the cage, but it won’t be easy against veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who has not fought since Dec. 10 of 2011 due to various injuries.

Nogueira (20-5 MMA, 3-2 UFC) shook off back-to-back decision losses to Ryan Bader and Phil Davis to KO Tito Ortiz at the 3:15 mark of Round 1 at UFC 140 in Toronto. His other UFC wins came over Luiz Cane and Jason Brilz.

Evans is outrageously priced at -450 and is as expensive as -500 at many offshore books. Little Nog has underdog odds in the plus-370 range (risk $100 to win $370).

The only way to bet Evans without risking a ridiculous price is by backing him to win by KO for a plus-250 payout. However, bettors should keep in mind that Little Nog has only been finished once in 25 career fights and that came six years ago at Pride 33.

Prediction: Evans wins but the price is too expensive to risk with a wager. If anything, risk a very small amount on Evans to win by KO at +250 odds (risk $100 to win $250).

Alistair Overeem (36-11-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) will return from a one-year suspension to take on Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in a critical heavyweight showdown. Overeem is a huge -360 ‘chalk,’ while Silva is a plus-280 underdog.

Overeem made his Octagon debut at UFC 141 against former heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar. The Dutch kickboxer dominated Lesnar from the get-go, scoring a first-round KO after Lesnar covered up following a brutal liver kick.

The win over Lesnar gave Overeem a shot at the heavyweight strap then held by Junior dos Santos. However, a failed drug test landed Overeem on suspension and out of action for a year.

After getting destroyed by Cain Velasquez in his UFC debut, Silva (17-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) bounced back with an impressive first-round KO of previously-undefeated Travis Browne in the main event at UFC on FX on Oct. 5. (We should note, however, that Browne sustained an injury early in the fight and was basically on one leg when Silva started to get busy on his way to the KO victory.)

Silva’s biggest career win came over Fedor Emelianenko in ground-and-pound fashion in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Tournament. He also beat former UFC champ Andrei Arlovski while fighting under the Strikeforce banner.

Prediction: I don’t give Silva much of a chance unless he can score a takedown and get Overeem on his back. Overeem will win by KO, but there isn’t much shaved off of the prop price (compared to straight price) for him to do so (like there is for Evans). Most offshores have Overeem with -275 odds to win by KO. That’s still too ‘chalky’ for me so this is a pass.

In the welterweight division, Jon Fitch (24-4-1-1 MMA, 14-2-1 UFC) and Demian Maia will collide in an interesting matchup. Fitch was a minus-180 favorite earlier in the week but his price has increased to -220 at many books in the last 24-48 hours. Maia is around +170 or +180 on the comeback.

Fitch had a rough 2011 and 2012 was not much better until he got into the cage in Brazil on Oct. 13 at UFC 153. After seeing his five-fight winning streak snapped in a controversial draw versus Penn at UFC 127, Fitch fought injuries until facing Johny Hendricks at UFC 141.

Before going up against ‘Bigg Rigg,’ Fitch had not been submitted or knocked out in 15 previous UFC bouts. But Hendricks ended that with an enormous left hook that left Fitch out cold just 12 seconds into the fight.

At that point, Fitch’s aspirations of getting another title shot against GSP went out the window. Now he’s just focused on winning fights and making money for his family. Fitch did just that his last time out, beating Erick Silva by unanimous decision as a short favorite while also garnering a Fight of the Night bonus check.

Maia (17-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC) is an extraordinary jiu-jitsu practicioner, perhaps the best in any division in all of mixed martial arts. Since dropping down to 170 from middleweight, Maia has won back-to-back fights over Dong Hyun Kim (TKO, rib injury) and Rick Story (neck-crank submission).

Fitch has the best submission defense in UFC history, successfully defending 25 serious submission attempts. When Maia takes a fighter’s back, he is a magician with his jiu-jitsu. Former opponents/victims like Chael Sonnen, Ed Herman, Ryan Jensen and Nate Quarry can attest to this.

Prediction: I like Fitch to win by decision but the prices for each (-210 odds for the fight to go the distance) are too ‘chalky’ so this is yet another pass for me.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The first bout on the pay-per-view portion of the card will feature a pair of flyweight contenders. Former No.1 contender Joseph Benavidez (16-3 MMA, 3-1 UFC) is a minus-250 ‘chalk’ vs. Ian McCall. Benavidez lost a split decision to Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson for the featherweight strap at UFC 152. McCall (11-3-1 MMA, 0-1-1 UFC) fought Johnson to a majority draw and then lost a unanimous decision in the rematch.

There are four preliminary fights that will be televised on FX. None interest me gambling-wise, but Floyd pointed out that he like Evan Dunham at even money (+100) against Gleison Tibau.

Maia has won Submission of the Night honors four times.

Several new fights were added to the UFC 159 card this week. Of course, the main event is for the light heavyweight championship as Jones will take on Sonnen. The co-main event will feature a pair of middleweight contenders in Michael Bisping and Alan ‘The Talent’ Belcher. Bisping is coming off a second-round KO loss to Vitor Belfort, while Belcher saw his winning streak ended in a UD loss to Yushin Okami.

Jim Miller will also welcome Pat Healy to the UFC in a lightweight matchup at UFC 159.

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Re: 2012 UFC 156 Betting Odds & Card for Aldo vs. Edgar

UFC 156 Betting: Three Big Bouts Highlight Main Card
By MMAOddsbreaker.com

On the eve of Super Bowl Sunday, the Ultimate Fighting Championship puts together a huge event of its own at UFC 156.

There are three massive bouts on the main card, headlined by a featherweight title fight between champion Jose Aldo and former lightweight belt holder Frankie Edgar. The experts at MMAOddsbreaker.com break down Saturday’s three big battles:

Jose Aldo (-205) vs. Frankie Edgar (+155)

UFC president Dana White got what he wanted with Edgar moving to featherweight, a logical decision considering his size when compared to some of the bigger lightweight contenders. While Edgar was able to win the title at 155 pounds, he belongs at 145 and will have to beat the best to become the champ in the division.

Aldo was originally scheduled to fight Erik Koch, who is not even in MMAOB’s Top 15 MMA Fighter Rankings at featherweight. When Koch pulled out of their fight due to injury, it made perfect sense for Edgar to step in despite suffering consecutive losses to Benson Henderson.

The problem is, Aldo is still the superior fighter and Edgar is jumping right into the fire rather than earning his way to a title shot. Aldo’s recent foot injury that pushed this fight back from UFC 153 is a minor concern, as a bigger one might be the layoff he has had since knocking out Chad Mendes at UFC 142 last January.

Regardless, Edgar’s heart gives him a chance, although a victory would likely set up a fourth straight rematch for him with Aldo getting an opportunity to win back his belt if he happens to lose.

Rashad Evans (-345) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+265)

This is yet another mind-boggling matchup at light heavyweight between two guys who are simply going through the motions. Evans looks like he just wants to stay active without fighting a difficult opponent in the near future.

Enter “Little Nog”, who has not fought in nearly a year. Evans uses him a tuneup fight before attempting to work his way back into title consideration and a possible rematch with the champion Jon Jones.

What Evans might not realize is that he has a lot to lose here if he does fall to Nogueira, who is three inches taller and may have some surprises in store that could possibly lead to an upset win.

Alistair Overeem (-315) vs. Antonio Silva (+235)

Overeem is obviously awaiting his shot at the heavyweight title and this seems like a logical matchup since he was originally scheduled to fight Silva in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. Silva ended up losing in the semifinals to Overeem’s injury replacement Daniel Cormier, who went on to win the tournament as an alternate.

Overeem will follow the same game plan Cain Velasquez used to beat Silva, using his heavy hands to pound out a victory. Silva is an equally large opponent but was definitely intimidated by Velasquez and will need to show no fear inside the Octagon to stand a chance.

Overeem has an extremely confident demeanor and will need to guard against becoming overconfident. Both men have the potential to score a knockout here, but Overeem has a big edge in terms of pure ability and fight experience.

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