Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl XLVII Opener
VegasInsider.com

The road teams took care of business in the conference championships as the Ravens and 49ers will battle in Super Bowl XLVII. Of course the big story will revolve around the Harbaugh brothers facing off, while the Super Bowl returns to New Orleans for the first time since 2002.

Favorites compiled an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS record throughout this postseason, as Baltimore picked up the only two outright underdog wins at Denver and New England. Following a 4-0 run to the 'under' during Wild Card weekend, the 'over' cashed in all four Divisional Playoff games. In the conference championships, the NFC finished 'over' the total, while the AFC cashed the 'under.'

Super Bowl XLVII from New Orleans (2/3/13)

Line:
49ers -4½ (49)

Movement: This line opened up at -5, but quickly moved down to 4½ at William Hill and Caesar's. Some other shops in the desert have dropped to 4. One of the bigger offshore outfits, CRIS, is holding steady at 5.

The total dipped from 49½ to 49 at several outlets, while going to 48½ at Caesar's and even down to 48 at the LVH.

Betting Notes: The Ravens and 49ers didn't meet in the regular season, but Baltimore held off San Francisco on Thanksgiving night in 2011. Baltimore held off San Francisco, 16-6 as 3½-point favorites, while game finished 'under' the total of 40.

The Ravens didn't play a game inside a dome this season, unless you count their blowout loss at Houston's Reliant Stadium. The 49ers played five games indoors and one of those victories came at the Superdome over the Saints in Week 12, as the Niners returned two interceptions for touchdowns in a 31-21 triumph.

Super Bowl Betting Notes:

The 49ers are playing in their first Super Bowl since 1994.

San Francisco owns a 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS record in Super Bowls, while being listed as a favorite each time.

The Ravens are playing in their first Super Bowl since 2000, as Baltimore is participating in its second Super Bowl in franchise history.

In their lone Super Bowl appearance, the Ravens routed the Giants, 34-7 to cash as three-point favorites and finish 'over' the total of 33.

The NFC has won four of the last five Super Bowls, while the 'under' is 6-2 the last eight Super Bowls.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

SBXLVII - Trend Report
By CarbonSports

Early Super Bowl Trends

The Super Bowl has been set for a few days now and the line is holding at San Francisco -3.5 for now. A small majority of the early money has come in supporting the Ravens here (66%) and there are many reasons why. Underdogs are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowls, winning five of them outright. The Ravens have gone through two of the all-time greats in Manning and Brady and have got to be confident heading into this game. With how well they are playing, it’s tough not to like taking the points here.

Here are a few more things to keep in mind about Baltimore for this game:

Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five Super Bowls
Super Bowl underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 7-2 ATS in their last nine opportunities.
No team (SF) has ever won the Super Bowl after losing by 28 points in the month of December

Fundamentally, the Ravens wily defense will have to come out and contain Kaepernick’s big play ability. Kaepernick is capable of the big play through the air or on the ground and Baltimore’s task over the next few weeks is to figure out how to negate those plays. However, as losing by 28 in the final month of the season suggests, there are plenty of ways to attack San Francisco’s own defense and Baltimore loves to take deep shots in their own right. A couple of deep connections could easily turn the tide of this game in Baltimore’s favor.

San Francisco always has a shot and as an organization they are a perfect 5-0 SU in Super Bowls. They are 4-1 ATS in those games and were listed as the favorite each time. Three of the five wins were blowouts as each time they had the far superior offense and could just turn games on their head with big plays. That’s how the 2012-13 49ers are built and they do not want to be known as the ones that gave this franchise their first Super Bowl loss.

Keep these in mind if you’re leaning on San Francisco winning

The NFC is 5-0 ATS in the last five Super Bowls and 14-7-2 ATS in the last 23 years
Favorites have won 31 of the 46 Super Bowls straight up.
Super Bowl favorites of 4 points or less that have gone on to win the game are 6-1-1 ATS (ie if San Fran wins, the spread likely won’t matter)

As for totals, the Super Bowl has generally been high scoring in recent years. If you take out the two Pats/Giants Super Bowls of recent memory, seven of the remaining eight contests had at least 45 points scored in them. The total for this game is a little higher than that but with Baltimore scoring 24 or more in four of their last five and San Fran reaching that mark in five of their last six, seeing points in this contest shouldn’t come as a big surprise.

Obviously it is still early in the research process of the Super Bowl, but even basic historic points like this are good starting points.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Early money on Ravens
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

With nearly 95 percent of the Super Bowl action still yet to come through Las Vegas sports book windows, the big question bettors have to ask themselves is where the line will go and when to bet it. So far, with nine days of action to go, it's been all Ravens money, pushing most Las Vegas bet shops from 49ers -5 down to -3.5.

Up north, it's been a little bit of the same, but with a much different spread. You see, Reno is 49ers country, and because of knowing their clientele, sports books like the Peppermill opened higher than most with the 49ers -6.5. But the value of the number up there is even too much for bettors to pass on -- 49ers fans or not -- and they have been pushed down the -4.5, which is still the highest number in the state.
   
In Las Vegas, the highest number -- Ravens +4 -- is currently available at two bet shops. One of them is at the Wynn, and the other is at William Hill. Because of high rollers being everywhere between the joint properties of the Wynn and Encore, it's likely that Wynn sports book director John Avello already has some big action on the 49ers to pad his book against the Ravens money.

Over at William Hill, they fall right into the middle of a dilemma between North and South. Between 75 full service books in Las Vegas and all over the Northern counties, they're getting a mix of action that most Vegas books aren't. It's still mostly Ravens money, but not to the degree as other Vegas books are getting.

So as a bettor that has yet to wager on the game, when do you pull the trigger?

It's more likely with the small sampling on action we have seen that the number will go to -3 before the majority of books go back to -4, which is something the books don't want to do. When you start messing around with the most key margin of victory in the biggest game of the year -- which occurred the last two Super Bowls, it gives book directors an uneasy feeling because of the large scale opportunities to get sided.

If looking to bet the 49ers, the best advice is to wait until 3's start popping up. Chances are that anyone with large money wanting to bet the 49ers have already applied their wait-and-see approach. The books know this as well, and coupled with extending their risk before moving to the key number, they might be willing to go the distance in the wait game until forcing whatever big money is ready to make a move.

I think what you'll see is one sports book kind of be the guinea pig for all to watch when they test out the waters on three. As much as the sports books don't want to go to three, their risk will force the move. After the final two months of the regular season where the books got torched, there aren't many bookmakers that want to stick their neck out on extended risk on the biggest game of the year at any number.

When that first book makes the move, and the alert is sent to every large money operation, you'll see a stampede of groups rushing to the window, which will cause a quick move back to 3.5. In the process, every other book will take notice that three will get you all the 49ers money you want to balance the action.

Now this is only speculative. I don't have a crystal ball. All I'm doing is handicapping how I think things will unfold based on my own past Super Bowl booking experiences. At this juncture, I don't even know if there is any big money to be had on the 49ers, but we would definitely find out if we saw a "3" pop up.

An example of waiting too long to make a move happened when the Raiders played the Buccaneers in 2003. All the early money came in on the Bucs. The Raiders had been a popular public team all season giving them a mindset and comfort level that there had to be Raiders waiting to bet close to kickoff, but it didn't happen. It also didn't help public opinion that the Raiders starting center went on a Tijuana bender.

How this one will go is anyone's guess, but based on what the public saw last, the Ravens beating the Broncos and Patriots on the road as large underdogs -- the two highest rated teams -- goes a lot further in their minds than the 49ers having trouble with a Falcons squad in the NFC Championship game. Unlike years past when Super Bowls were blowouts, it has paid pretty well to simply side with the team getting points.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

NFL Super Bowl XLVII Betting Trends and Notes
By Marc Lawrence
Covers.com

Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise. 

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even

Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens

Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS.  Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens

Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners

Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even

Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Sharp Money on Super Bowl Props
By Teddy Covers
Covers.com

It’s no secret where the early money has come on the Super Bowl. At the opening number, San Francisco was as high as a 5.5-point favorite offshore, with mostly -5’s here in Las Vegas. But we’ve seen steady Baltimore money pour in since that time, driving the line down to the -3.5 or -4 range at every sportsbook in town; numbers that are currently attracting two-way action. I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff.

The early sharp money has also come in support of the under. One prominent offshore book opened the total at 52.5, and here in Vegas we saw several books open with a total of 50. Through the first week of Super Bowl betting, the under has been a popular wiseguy choice. The prevailing current offshore number is 47.5; here in Vegas we’re looking at mostly 48’s. I do expect the public to be squarely on the over Sunday – this total could easily get bet up a notch or two.

The Super Bowl is a unique animal when it comes to moneylines, particularly at the sportsbooks here in Vegas. We get a boatload of tourists in town for the big game, and those tourists have a strong tendency to bet the moneyline when supporting the underdog. Right now, San Francisco is in the -170 to -180 range on the moneyline, with the Ravens sitting at +150 to +160 in most locations.

But as we approach the game, we can expect the books to start adjusting the moneyline downwards to cope with the influx of Ravens ML bets. Don’t be shocked if at some point over the weekend, we see the 49ers in the -160 or -165 range, more typical of a three-point favorite, not a four-point favorite. Bettors who favor the 49ers are likely to pounce on that marketplace inefficiency in the 24-48 hours before kickoff.

For professional level bettors, wagering on the Super Bowl is not about side, total or moneyline bets – it’s about the props!  Last year’s Patriots/Giants big game matchup generated just shy of $94 million in wagers at Nevada’s sportsbooks; a high percentage of which was on the proposition wagers. This year, sportsbooks are anticipating similar action.

The MGM/Mirage books were the first to open any proposition wagers to the betting public, hanging lines for all four quarters of the game. The sharps pounced all over MGM’s numbers, flipping the plus prices on the two sides. For example, San Francisco opened -0.5 (-125) for the first quarter. Within hours, the 49ers were -0.5 (+115).

Sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback, talking about the flurry of sharp money, right from the get-go. “They pounded us. It was amazing. It was just big bets – limit play, limit play, limit play at every property. Just like sharks.”

But it’s Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH who are the true pioneers; the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here. The LVH numbers were posted this past Thursday, and their 24-page prop booklet features more than 300 additional wagering opportunities.

I was at the Superbook when the numbers were posted, and frankly, most of the sharp bettors in the book seemed to be extremely disappointed in what they found. Here are quotes that I overheard from four different pro bettors who all wished to remain anonymous.

“These are the best prop numbers I’ve ever seen.” “I have more respect for the LVH today than I’ve ever had.” “Jeez, they used to just throw stuff up there; not anymore!” “My goal is to bet as little as possible at the LVH. I want to bet against the dum-dum books.”

But for all the whining and complaining about how good the LVH’s prop sheet was this year, those same pro bettors weren’t shy about laying down limit wagers. Here are some of the most popular wiseguy bets from the LVH this past weekend. If you’re looking for one prevailing theme on these wagers, it’s ‘less offense, more defense’. All props listed are at -110 both ways unless otherwise noted.

Bettors were bearish on Ray Rice. Rice’s rushing yards opened at 66.5, but that was bet down to 63.5. Rice’s rushing yards opened at +11.5 vs. Frank Gore’s rushing yards, bet up to +17.5. The Ravens team rushing total opened at over/under 108.5; bet down to 100.5 by Sunday night. Rice’s receiving yardage total was bet down from 29.5 to 25.5. His longest reception was bet down from 16.5 yards to 14.5 yards, with a +110 on the over. His longest rush was bet down from -14.5 to -13.5. The under 6.5 yards on Rice’s first reception now has a -140 price tag attached. Even Rice’s rushing attempts were bet down from 17.5 to 17.

But while bettors were fading Rice, they were supporting his backfield mate Bernard Pierce. Pierce’s rushing yards total got bet up from 29.5 to 32.5. His longest rush (O/U 9.5 yards) now has a -120 attached to the over and his total receiving yards went from over 1.5 (+140) to over 1.5 (-110).

The LVH wasn’t shy about moving numbers, not just the juice. Torrey Smith’s first reception got bet down from over/under 14.5 yards to O/U 13.5 yards, -120 on the under. Dennis Pitta’s first reception got bet down from 9.5 to 8.5 yards, and his total receiving yards were bet down from 47.5 to 45.5. Frank Gore’s receiving yards went from an opener of 19.5 to the current number of 14.5. LaMichael James' longest rush went from 13.5 to 11.5 with a +110 on the over, and his total rushing yards got bet down from 30.5 to 25.

Many of these bets were ‘arbitrage’ type wagers, as bettors took advantage of the variance in the posted numbers both here in town and offshore. And bettors took their time to read the fine print. LVH ‘total and assisted tackles’ numbers excluded sacks, but included special teams tackles; not the case at some other books. Perhaps that’s a big reason why Terrell Suggs O/U 4.5 tackles went from over -145 to over +110 at the LVH, without a corresponding move elsewhere.

The cross-sports props are always a thought provoking handicap, and we saw early money come on props involving hockey, soccer, basketball and golf.

Barcelona’s Lionel Messi goals opened at -0.5 (-125) vs. Frank Gore touchdowns, bet up to -170. The New York Islanders total points from John Tavares vs. the total number of scores in the last two minutes of the first half went from pk +100 to pk +150.  Dwyane Wade points vs. the Raptors opened -4 (-110) vs. Colin Kaepernick completions. Kaepernick +4 now has a -140 price tag attached. Chris Bosh points vs. the largest lead of the Super Bowl went from -0.5 (-110) to -145. And Lee Westwood’s final round score at the Dubai Desert Classic vs Ray Rice rushing yards went from -3 to -5.5.

Let’s not forget special teams! Bettors didn’t touch 49ers kicker David Akers' total points (O/U 7.5), but Baltimore’s Justin Tucker went from 7.5 (U -120) to under -160. And money came on the over for both Sam Koch’s longest punt (56.5 yards, O -130) and Andy Lee’s longest punt (57.5, O -140)

Arguably the single biggest mover from the LVH openers came on the ‘total net yards for both teams’ prop. That number opened at 749.5 and got bet down again and again, currently sitting at 718.5 yards.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

SBXLVII - Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Props Galore

The darling of the prop season this year is San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick. People can’t get enough of the running quarterback who can throw equally as deadly, and the sports books have met the demand by offering a prop on just about everything he could possibly do in the Super Bowl. Total passing yards: 235.5. Total rushing yards: 48.5. William Hill sports books lead the way with 23 different Kaepernick props.

William Hill books also did a nice little contest for the public to get involved with asking bettors to send in their own prop. The winner was 49ers fan Mike Smyth who wanted to see a prop asking whether or not 49ers backup QB Alex Smith would take a snap. William Hill posted No -700, YES +500. For his efforts, he was awarded a $100 bet on the Super Bowl. Way to go, Mike!   

Where’s The Line Going to Go?

It’s hard to gauge how the final wave of action will come in because we should see 90 percent of the overall Super Bowl action begin playing over the weekend. The first wave saw lots of Ravens action, likely because everyone was so impressed by their win against at New England. That was last Sunday night when the line first came out where all the +5’s and 4.5’s were gobbled up.
   
But then things started to simmer down with equal action, and then to some degree, a shade towards the 49ers. Most sports books other than Wynn and William Hill went to 49ers -3.5, but on Friday, Coast Resorts went back to -4. On Sunday, Caesars also made the leap back to -4.

However, the most surprising move Sunday came up north at the Peppermill where they dropped the 49ers to -4. They started at -6.5 with intentions of staying high because of all the 49ers money expected in 49ers country, but obviously they couldn’t wait it out and made the decision to move.

"Our initial goal was to try and stay about a half-point above what Las Vegas was doing,” said Terry Cox, sports book director at the Peppermill. “That strategy worked very well for us in the NFC Championship where we had mostly 49ers money laying 4.5-points, instead of 4 like most had (49ers won 28-24). But we got to the point where the money dictated a move here and it was time to go.”

My first thought was that underdog money would come in the normal tradition of the Super Bowl. In the regular season, you can’t get bettors to take an underdog, but all of a sudden when the Super Bowl rolls around, they’re all over the ‘dog. And for the most part, they’ve been correct -- covering four of the last five Super Bowls and eight of the last 11.   

If I had to guess, I think that final wave of action will still be weighted with Ravens money, making it probable that we might see some 3’s pop up by kickoff. 

Who will the star of the game be?

This depends on who you think will win the game. I haven’t wavered from my initial thoughts of the Ravens winning in a high- scoring game, and if that happens, the main culprit for success would be Ravens QB Joe Flacco. In three playoff games thus far, Flacco has tossed eight touchdown passes and hasn’t thrown an interception. He’s averaged 284 yards passing over those three games and you could argue that he’s been in his best groove of the season.

That groove could be in jeopardy with the week off. We’ve seen over the years how flat some of the No. 1 and 2 seeds fare with the week off when they have to play a wild card winner, but I think Flacco will be okay. The only concern may be playing indoors. The Ravens lost their only indoor game this season, 43-13, at Houston in October, and they come off of frigid wins at Denver and New England. Maybe the temperature will be too nice for Flacco.

Besides the run Flacco’s on, one of the other main reasons to like him is the 49ers defense. Once held in high regards as one of the NFL’s best defenses, the tempo created by Kaepernick has put more pressure on the defense and they haven’t been as good. Consider that the 49ers defense gave up more than 340 yards in four of their last five games. The only team they held under 300 yards over that span was the pitiful Cardinals offense. In Week 15 they gave up 388 yards to the Patriots, 346 to Seattle in Week 17, 352 to the Packers in the divisional playoff, and 477 to the Falcons in the NFC championship game.

Teams are finding ways to beat the 49ers defense and it’s usually been downfield which has helped produce games going OVER the total in nine of their last 10 games. One thing Flacco does very well is throw the deep ball.

So needless to say, I find several of the props regarding yardage and TD passes with Flacco attractive. At the same time, if Flacco has success, that means the recipients of his passes should do well. That means Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta could be good plays OVER on some of their props. The LVH has a prop that pays +340 (Bet $100 to win $340) if Smith scores a TD in the first half. If you like the game high scoring like I do, then that becomes a distinct possibility.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Top 5 Super Bowl Props From Las Vegas                     
By Mark Franco
Playbook.com

1) TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: JOE FLACCO (BAL) (At the LVH)

OVER 247.5 -110

Joe Flacco is having a very solid playoffs up to this point as he is averaging 284.3 yards per game in his three postseason starts. He has thrown for 240 yards vs. the Patriots, 331 yards vs. the Broncos and 282 yards vs. the Colts when the Ravens didn't need to throw the ball. He also has eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Ravens will be relying on Falcco's big arm to get the ball down field in this game and this number is just too low.

2) LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM (At the LVH)

UNDER 14 (EVEN)

I see solid value in this prop being at even money as I don't see either team pulling away at any point of the game by more than two touchdowns. We have seen many blowouts in past Super Bowls but I don't see that playing out here with two even teams.

3) TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS BY BOTH TEAMS: (At the LVH)

OVER 5 ½ (+105)

I'm looking for several big plays by both teams and I like the game to go over the total of 47 ½ so this one makes sense. Both teams have had no problem getting in the end zone in the playoffs and that will not change here in the dome on a fast carpet in New Orleans. I feel both teams should have at least three touchdowns each.

4) WILL THE GAME BE TIED AFTER 0-0? (At the LVH)

YES (+105)

You got to like this prop at plus money with two teams that are very comparable. I see the game being tied at some point if not more than once. I'm looking for this one to cash in the first half.

5) RECEPTIONS BY TORREY SMITH: 3 (At William Hill)

OVER (-115)

While I don't lay to lay juice when betting Super Bowl props this one is well worth laying just minus 115. I see Falcco getting the ball to Smith on several plays and he should have at least four receptions in the game.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Bettin' the Super Props
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Super Props – Let The Games Begin

Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans kicks off Feb. 3 when Baltimore meets San Francisco with both teams looking to keep their all-time undefeated mark in Super Bowl games in tact.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet like partners at a local gay pride parade.

It's important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the odds maker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent 'juice' edge in his favor. Thus, it's critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create added action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas.

Furthermore, it's important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay this is the only NFL game of the season where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.

The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off.

Until last season when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.

Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 25 times in 46 previous Super Bowl games, with Eli Manning carting home the award last year.
   
Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP's.

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick lead the charge this year.  In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Flacco by 12 1/2 passing yards over Kaepernick. Flacco is also listed with 3 1/2 more completions than Kaepernick, while total TD’s passes among the two is offered a ‘pick’.

Interestingly, the Niners are -57 1/2 rushing yards over the Ravens for the game at the LVH.

That’s largely due to the groundswell of support for San Francisco since Kaepernick took over as its starting quarterback nine games ago.  In those nine games the Niners have averaged 159 rushing yards per contest.  Baltimore has averaged 151 rushing yards per game over the same period of time.

When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it's important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

Team Scoring Tendencies

Sharp edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. The final number is average points scored and allowed in each quarter for each team.

Note: the Ravens have played 19 games this campaign, the Niners 18.

1Q – Baltimore: 102-87 / 5.37-4.58
1Q – San Francisco: 64-78 / 3.56-4.33

2Q – Baltimore: 132-126 / 6.95–6.63
2Q – San Francisco: 141-84 / 7.83-4.67

3Q – Baltimore: 119-96 / 6.26-5.05
3Q – San Francisco: 114-58 / 6.33-3.22

4Q – Baltimore: 129-89 / 6.79-4.68
4Q – San Francisco: 151-105 / 8.39-5.83

Notice the Niners scoring woes in the first stanza and its ability to light the scoreboard during the final quarter.  The Ravens also start slow but pick up the pace at a fairly even keel thereafter.

Here’s the same look at the two teams in games versus fellow playoff teams this season.

Note: the Ravens have played 9 games against playoff squads this season, the Niners 7.

1Q – Baltimore: 41-56 / 4.56-6.22
1Q – San Francisco: 20-48 / 2.86-6.86

2Q – Baltimore: 59-81 / 6.56–9.00
2Q – San Francisco: 63-58 / 9.00-8.29

3Q – Baltimore: 55-53 / 6.17-5.89
3Q – San Francisco: 52-17/ 7.43-2.43

4Q – Baltimore: 82-38 / 9.11-4.22
4Q – San Francisco: 48-60 / 6.86-8.57

Hmm. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the 4th and final quarter.

On the flip side San Francisco has been outscored in the 1st and 4th quarters but, thanks to a super stingy 3rd quarter defensive effort, has come out on top in the middle stanzas.

Buyer beware.

Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVII is San Francisco RB Frank Gore, with teammate WR Michael Crabtree and Baltimore RB Ray Rice a whisker off.

Leading the next wave is San Francisco QB Kaepernick and Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin, along with Niners WR Vernon Davis and Ravens WR Torrey Smith.

Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times. New York WR Victor Cruz found the end zone first for the Giants against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI last year – but not before the Giants were on the scoreboard first with a Tom Brady safety called for intentional grounding in the end zone.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular wagering option.

The LVH features no less than 38 cross-sports opportunities ranging from Kaepernick’s total passing yards -46.5 versus the L.A. Clippers and Boston Celtics total points scored to Flacco’s completions +0.5 versus Kevin Garnett’s points and rebounds combined.

College hoops gets in to the fray with the Big East basketball teams (Providence, Villanova, Marquette, Louisville, South Florida and Connecticut) combining lay -45.5 points up against the Ravens total net yards.  FYI: the six hoops teams were averaging 68 PPG, or 414 total PPG combined) on the season entering Tuesday’s action of Super Bowl week).  The Ravens have averaged 364 total YPG this season.

Golfers are offered 4 cross-props (that just sounds wrong), the most popular of which is Sergio Garcia’s 4th round score on Super Bowl Sunday (-1.5) versus Smith’s receiving yards.

Soccer fanatics can pit Lionel Messi’s goals (-0.5) up against Gore’s touchdowns.

Hockey fans can get in the game, too, with Sidney Crosby’s goals a pick ‘em against Kaepernick’s touchdown passes.

And on and on it goes.  Where it stops only Jay Kornegay knows.

One thing is for sure. This will mark the 9th straight year that the team with the best record in the league will not win the Super Bowl.

That’s a lock.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Cross-Sport Props
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLVII gives bettors plenty of opportunities to place hundreds of wagers on the sport's championship from a props perspective. One of the more interesting angles to take is the cross-sport standpoint, as three games take place in the NBA and four contests inside the NHL, allowing bettors the chance to have their action on two games at once.

We'll take a look at some of the cross-sport props that have an edge, starting with two from the Celtics/Clippers that tips off on Sunday afternoon from Boston.

Joe Flacco completions (+0.5) vs. Kevin Garnett points + rebounds (-0.5)

It is almost guaranteed that Garnett will find a way to combined for at least 19 points and rebounds, which he has done in 13 of the last 15 games. The average in this span is 23, which does include a 24/10 effort at Atlanta and 24/11 showing against Miami, both games that went to double-overtime. In the earlier meeting with the Clippers, Garnett put up 16 points and four rebounds in December.

In 18 games this season (not including the Week 17 loss at Cincinnati), Flacco completed 22 passes or less 14 times, while connecting on 28 or more just three times. In the three playoff games, the Ravens' quarterback completed 12, 18, and 21 passes, which tells us that Baltimore has grinded it out on the ground. However, the Niners allowed 26 completing to Aaron Rodgers in the divisional round and 30 to Matt Ryan in the conference championship. Both Rodgers and Ryan complete at least 67% of their passes (Flacco at 59.7%) and each NFC quarterback finished in the top seven of the league in completions.

Take Garnett points + rebounds.

Ravens points (-5) vs. Paul Pierce points (+5)

Since January 14, Pierce has averaged 14.7 points per game in nine contests, while busting the 20-point mark just once. At home in this span, that number moves up to 16 ppg, but that isn't very enticing since Pierce scored just 12 points the last time the Celtics faced the Clippers.

In the playoffs, the Ravens have tallied 24, 38, and 28 points after being held to less than 20 points in five of the final seven games of the regular season. Don't be afraid if Baltimore maybe starts slow out of the gate, as the Ravens put up 14 (vs. Indianapolis), 17 (vs. Denver), and 21 (vs. New England) in the second half and overtime of the three postseason contests. The 49ers' defense isn't as stout as advertised, allowing at least 24 points in four of the last five games, including 31 or more on three occasions in this stretch.

Take Ravens points.

49ers points (+1.5) vs. LeBron James points (-1.5)

The three-time MVP battles the Raptors on Sunday afternoon in Toronto, as James is averaging 27.9 ppg in 18 contests since Christmas. Sixteen times in this stretch, James has put up at least 22 points, while busting the 30-point eight times. The last time the Heat hosted Toronto, James led the way with a triple-double, as he scored 31 points.

San Francisco scored a grand total of 85 points in four domed games this season (23 ppg), while the 49ers' defense returned a pair of turnovers for touchdowns at New Orleans. The Niners tallied 28 points or less in five of the last seven contests, including a 28-spot in the NFC title game at Atlanta after trailing 17-0.

Take James points.

Listed below are the cross-sport props involving the NBA and NHL action on Sunday.

Super Bowl XLVII Cross-Sport Props - NBA

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Clippers/Celtics--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
PAUL PIERCE (BOS) POINTS +5.0 -110
RAVENS POINTS -5.0 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE: **(Clippers/Celtics--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
BLAKE GRIFFIN (LAC) POINTS+REBOUNDS -3.0 -110
49ERS POINTS +3.0 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Clippers/Celtics--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
CLIPPERS+CELTICS POINTS +46.5 -110
COLIN KAEPERNICK (SF) GROSS PASSING YARDS -46.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Clippers/Celtics--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
KEVIN GARNETT (BOS) POINTS+REBOUNDS -0.5 -110
JOE FLACCO (BAL) COMPLETIONS +0.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Clippers/Celtics--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
CLIPPERS+CELTICS 1ST QUARTER POINTS PK -110
RAVENS+49ERS POINTS PK -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Pistons--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
KOBE BRYANT (LAL) POINTS -4.0 -110
49ERS POINTS +4.0 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Pistons--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
KOBE BRYANT (LAL) 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE -0.5 -145
JOE FLACCO (BAL) TOUCHDOWN PASSES +0.5 +125

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Pistons--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
PAU GASOL (LAL) POINTS+REBOUNDS +0.5 -110
RAVENS POINTS -0.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Pistons--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
STEVE NASH (LAL) POINTS -3.5 -110
RAVENS+49ERS 1ST QUARTER POINTS +3.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Pistons--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific
STEVE NASH (LAL) ASSISTS +3.5 -110
DISTANCE OF FIRST TD PASS OF SB XLVII -3.5 -110
**(If No TD Pass--All bets are refunded)

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Raptors--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 11:00 am Pacific
LEBRON JAMES (MIA) POINTS -1.5 -110
49ERS POINTS +1.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Raptors--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 11:00 am Pacific
LEBRON JAMES (MIA) POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS +5.5 -110
RAVENS+49ERS POINTS -5.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Raptors--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 11:00 am Pacific
CHRIS BOSH (MIA) POINTS -0.5 -110
LARGEST LEAD BY: RAVENS OR 49ERS +0.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Raptors--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 11:00 am Pacific
DWYANE WADE (MIA) POINTS -4.0 -110
COLIN KAEPERNICK (SF) COMPLETIONS +4.0 -110

Super Bowl XLVII Cross-Sport Props - NHL

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Penguins/Capitals--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 9:30 am Pacific
PENGUINS+CAPITALS GOALS -1.0 -110
ANQUAN BOLDIN (BAL) RECEPTIONS +1.0 -110
**In case of shootout only 1 goal is added to game total

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Penguins/Capitals--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 9:30 am Pacific
SIDNEY CROSBY (PIT) POINTS PK -110
COLIN KAEPERNICK (SF) TOUCHDOWN PASSES PK -110
**Crosby Points(Goals+Assists)--Shootout Goals excluded

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Penguins/Capitals--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 9:30 am Pacific
ALEXANDER OVECHKIN (WAS) POINTS -0.5 +110
RAVENS RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS +0.5 -130
**Ovechkin Points(Goals+Assists)--Shootout Goals excluded

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Senators/Canadiens--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 11:00 am Pacific
SENATORS+CANADIENS GOALS -1.0 -130
DENNIS PITTA (BAL) RECEPTIONS +1.0 +110
**In case of shootout only 1 goal is added to game total

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Senators/Canadiens--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 11:00 am Pacific
SENATORS+CANADIENS 1ST PERIOD GOALS PK +115
JOE FLACCO (BAL) TOUCHDOWN PASSES PK -135

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Panthers/Sabres--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 12:00 pm Pacific
PANTHERS+SABRES GOALS PK -110
LAMICHAEL JAMES (SF) RUSHING ATTEMPTS PK -110
**In case of shootout only 1 goal is added to game total

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Panthers/Sabres--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 12:00 pm Pacific
SABRES GOALS +0.5 -140
BAL+SF FIELD GOALS MADE -0.5 +120
**In case of shootout only 1 goal is added to game total

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Devils/Islanders--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 12:00 pm Pacific
DEVILS+ISLANDERS GOALS PK -110
49ERS 1ST QUARTER POINTS PK -110
**In case of shootout only 1 goal is added to game total

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Devils/Islanders--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 12:00 pm Pacific
JOHN TAVARES (NYI) POINTS PK EVEN
TOTAL SCORES IN FINAL 2 MINUTES OF 1ST HALF PK -120

**Tavares Points(Goals+Assists)--Shootout Goals excluded
**Any scores that occur with exactly 2 minutes remaining in
First half (Excludes extra points and two point conversions)

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

The Super Bowl XLVII matchup features the San Francisco 49ers favored by 3 1/2 points over the Baltimore Ravens with the total hovering around 47.5. San Francisco is making its sixth all-time Super Bowl appearance. 49ers are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) with the only non-cover in SB XXIII vs Bengals. This will be Baltimore's fourth Super Bowl. One as the Baltimore Ravens (1-0 SU/ATS), two as Baltimore Colts (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS).

Let’s take a quick look at how San Francisco and Baltimore arrived to SB XLVII. The 49ers racking up 27.6 PPG on 396.2 total yards/game (221.9 PY, 174.3 RY) while allowing 19.3 per/game on 325.8 total yards (226.3 PY, 99.5 YR) needed 18 games to punch their ticket (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS) including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark vs the AFC this season.

Ravens reached Super Sunday scoring 25.7 PPG on 364.0 total yards (240.4 PY, 123.6 RY) surrendering 21.1 per/game on 361.0 yds (237.7 PY, 123.3 RY) posting a 13-6 SU record with a vig losing 9-9-1 ATS mark at the betting window. Ravens were 2-2 SU/ATS knocking heads with the NFC losing both played away from Baltimore.

Now let's check some of the interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past.

All-time, favorites hold a 25-20-1 ATS advantage in Super Bowls with 'Over' dominating at 32-13-1 O/U as team have combined for an average 45.6 points/game. However, last year’s win and cover by Giants has underdogs on an 7-3 ATS stretch the past ten Super Bowls averaging a combined 47.5 points/game posting 4 'Over' 6 'Under'.

Super Bowl teams winning the ground game by 20 or more rushing yards are 34-7 SU, 33-7-1 ATS

Super Bowl favorites winning the ground game by 20 or more rushing yards are 25-2 SU, 21-6 ATS

Super Bowl teams winning the air attack 25-21 SU, 24-21-1 ATS

Super Bowl favorites winning the air attack are 18-7 SU, 14-10-1 ATS

Super Bowl favorites allowing =< 21 points are 26-6 SU, 21-10-1 ATS

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Total Talk - Super Bowl XLVII
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Postseason Recap

Similar to the regular season total numbers (122-117-2), the playoffs have been just about even as well. Total players have watched the ‘over/under’ go 5-5 in the first 10 games. The ‘over’ was never in doubt in the NFC Championship and the ‘under’ in the AFC Championship was helped with Patriots’ offense getting blanked in the second-half.

Line Analysis

The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) opened the total at 49 and it was knocked down immediately. It currently sits at 47 1/2. CRIS, one of the biggest offshore betting shops, also opened at 49 and they’re a tad lower at 47. Why the drop?

VegasInsider.com pro football expert Paul Bovi explains, “The opening line was likely in part reflective of a preconceived notion that the public would lean to the high side, as is typical of most Super Bowls. The early move, regardless of the outcome, certainly captured value based on what can only be considered an inflated number, especially given that these teams engaged in a 22-point slug fest only a little more than a year ago in which there were a mere 423 yards combined.”

Baltimore beat San Francisco 16-6 last season on Thanksgiving Day, which was the primetime game on the holiday slate. The closing total of 40 was never threatened. The 49ers couldn’t do anything on offense but they also had QB Alex Smith starting under center.

Regardless of what happens Sunday, it’s safe to say that the books will probably never have a Super Bowl total listed in the thirties ever again. However, next year’s game will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Super Bowl Trends and Venue

Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 23-22 in the Super Bowl and that includes a 6-4 mark in the last 10 years. This will be the 10th time that New Orleans will host the Super Bowl the first since 2002. In the first nine games from “The Big Easy” the ‘under’ has gone 6-3. Make a note that the games in 1970, 1972 and 1975 were played at Tulane Stadium.

Super Bowl History

Super Bowl Year Total Score Result
XXXVI 2002 53 New England 20 St. Louis 17 Under
XXXI 1997 49 Green Bay 35 New England 21 Over
XXIV 1990 48 San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Over
XX 1986 37.5 Chicago 46 New England 10 Over
XV 1981 37.5 Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Under
XII 1978 39 Dallas 27 Denver 10 Under
IX 1975 33 Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Under
VI 1972 34 Dallas 24 Miami 3 Under
IV 1970 39 Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Under

This will be the 16th Super Bowl that has been played indoors or with a closed roof. In the first 15 games, total players have watched the ‘under’ go 9-6 and that includes a 3-1 run of low-scoring affairs.

Parlay Probabilities

Since it’s the last pro football game of the season to bet, a lot of gamblers like to press their bets and try to cash both the side and the total with a two-team parlay at 12/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260).

Super Bowl Parlay History Combination
Combination Win Percentage
Favorite-Over 15 34%
Favorite-Under 11 25%
Underdog-Under 9 20%
Underdog-Over 7 16%
Push-Over 1 2.5%
Push-Under 1 2.5%

Looking at the above, you can see that the Favorite-Over combination has been the most profitable but that parlay hasn’t been cashing like it did in the eighties and nineties. Green Bay’s 31-25 win over Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV was the last Favorite-Over combination to hit. Prior to that, you would have to rewind to 2001 when Baltimore beat the N.Y. Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl XXXV.

The Underdog-Over combination has only happened seven times, which is the least, and gamblers should note that Tampa Bay was the last ‘dog to win straight up in a Super Bowl where the total went ‘over’ the number. In case you forgot, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders 48-21.

San Francisco is 5-0 in its five Super Bowl appearances and it’s posted a 4-1 mark against the spread. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games.

Inside the Numbers

San Francisco has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight and nine of its last 10 games, rather easily too. The 49ers offense put up 45 and 28 points in their two playoff games and the once highly regarded defense has surrendered 31 and 24 in those contests.

Despite scoring 24, 38 and 28 in the playoffs, Baltimore has watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in those games. The Ravens’ defense does a lot of bending but it hasn’t broke lately. In the postseason, the unit has allowed nine scores, five field goals and four touchdowns. Overall, the Ravens have seen the ‘over’ go 11-8 this season but the ‘under’ has produced a 6-3-1 mark on the road.

Head coach John Harbaugh and the Ravens defense have played well with time to prepare. Since he started in 2008, the team has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a bye week. In those games, the Ravens allowed 10, 7, 10, 14, 13 and 15 points.

QB Edge

The 49ers have been a different team with Colin Kaepernick and Paul Bovi believes the second-year standout from Nevada can be the difference. He explained, “Kapernick's mobility lends an edge to the Niners, as the Ravens will have to defend the edges much like the Falcons did by eliminating and/or minimizing man coverage. Baltimore has faced only two multidimensional QBs this year in Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. And it could be argued that he is more elusive than the former while RG3 was unable to finish the game due to a knee injury.”

The Eagles posted 486 yards of offense, but Vick only posted 34 yards on the ground. The Redskins also had a great day, racking up 423 total yards against the Ravens. RG3 only ran for 34 yards and he was sacked three times but Washington running back Alfred Morris took advantage of the Ravens focus on RG3 and scampered for 129 yards on 23 carries.

If you look at Kaepernick’s performances against non-divisional teams, San Francisco has posted 32, 31, 27, 41, 45 and 28 points. The 49ers’ defense certainly helped the youngster out in a couple games, in particular road battles at the Saints and Patriots. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the club is 6-0 both SU and 5-0-1 ATS and the ‘over’ cashed in all six.

Fearless Predictions

Heading into Super Bowl XLVII, we’re ahead $780 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end, we wish you luck and hope to see you next season!

Best Total: Over 47 San Francisco-Baltimore

Best Team Total: Over 26 San Francisco

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl Betting Trends, Notes & Stats
Harrybondi.com

The entire football universe is eagerly anticipating Sunday’s Super Bowl between Baltimore and San Francisco , as we have a true Cinderella story in the Ravens and the return to prominence of one of the league’s most storied franchises.

But despite those story lines, the people most looking forward to Sunday’s game are the sportsbooks.

Since the state of Nevada began tracking betting records in 1991, the sportsbooks have only had two losing Super Bowl Sundays: in 1995 when the 49ers routed the Chargers and in 2008 when the Giants stunned the Patriots.

Last year when the NY Giants once again upset New England, $93.89 million was wagered in Nevada, resulting in a net profit of $5.06 million. That was the largest Super Bowl handle since 2006, when Super Bowl XL between the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers set a record with $94.5 million wagered. (Keep in mind that of the total amount bet on the Super Bowl, only about 1.5 percent is wagered in Nevada, the rest is bet offshore).

Two years ago when Green Bay was a 2.5-favorite over Pittsburgh it marked the first time in 29 years that the Super Bowl line was less than three, dating back to 1982 when the San Fran-Cinci game was a pick’em. During that same time span the line has been less than seven just three times. This year, the line will likely close in the 3.5 to 4-point range, with the 49ers the chalk.

The straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 38-6-2 ATS, but three of those losses came in the last eight years with Carolina, Philadelphia and Arizona losing the game outright, but cashing a winning ticket.

The Super Bowl has gone under in six of the last eight years. That’s a far cry from previous years when the over was 11-4 between 1985 and 1999.

The NFC is surging. The NFC has covered five straight Super Bowls and is 8-2 against the spread the last 10 years. Another interesting tidbit about the NFC is that it has now had 11 different teams represent the conference in the last 12 years, with the NY Giants the only repeat team (XLII and XLVI).

Favorites are 25-19-2 in the history of the Super Bowl, but the dogs have been barking in recent years. The underdog has now covered in eight of the last 11 years, including two of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history – New England (+14) over St. Louis, 20-17, in 2001 and the N.Y. Giants (+12) over New England, 17-14, in 2008. Also, the higher-seeded team in the Super Bowl is on a dismal 1-13-2 ATS run.

Comebacks are rare. New Orleans won the 2010 Super Bowl over Indy, despite trailing after the first quarter and at the half. That’s out of the ordinary since teams that hold a first-quarter lead had won the Super Bowl 24 out of the last 35 years. Overall, the team that leads at the half is 34-10.

Can the Ravens score 21 points? It’s a key question because when the underdog scores 21 or more it is 11-4 against the spread, including 7-1 since 1998. Overall, teams that score less than 21 points are 8-37 straight up and just 10-31 against the spread. And when both teams score 21 or more, the underdog is 5-6 all time, but 5-1 the last six times it happened. Baltimore has scored more than 21 points in 12 out of 19 games this season. The Niners scored more than 21 in 13 out of 18 games.

Can the 49ers score 30 points? Another question to ponder since over the last 25 years, Super Bowl favorites that score less than 30 points are 3-13 against the spread. The 49ers averaged 24.8 points per game and have scored 30 or more eight times in 18 games. Baltimore has allowed 30 or more points just four times this season.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl XVLII Betting Guide
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

The San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS) and Baltimore Ravens (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) meet Sunday evening in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans (6:30 p.m. ET, ). The 49ers will try to match Pittsburgh with six Super Bowl titles, while the Ravens are aiming for their second crown. Here is point spread information and analysis from The Linemakers on Sporting News. Check our live odds board for the updated line.

Line: 49ers -4, Total: 47.5

Line movement: The Super Bowl point spread opened at 4.5 or 5 at most Las Vegas sports books on Championship Sunday two weeks ago, but the line was bet down to 4 by later that evening. Most of those 4s became 3.5s after a few day of wagering, but 4s started popping back up this week and again became the most popular number around town. As of this Thursday afternoon posting, just two major Vegas shops -- the LVH SuperBook and the MGM have 3.5 posted, and the MGM has -120 juice attached to the 49ers.

The total opened as low as 49 as high as 51, but has been bet UNDER ever since. It sat at 48 at most shoos for much of the two weeks, but 47.5 has become the number throughout Las Vegas.

Recent meetings: 11/3/11 Ravens 16-6 (-3.5) at Baltimore

Trends to know:

The NFC is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in the last five Super Bowls.

San Francisco is 25-11-1 ATS under Jim Harbaugh.

San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. winning teams.

Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. winning teams.

Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in its last four playoff games.

Over is 6-0 in San Francisco’s last six games.

Under is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five games.

Over is 5-0 in San Francisco’s last five games vs. winning teams.

Under is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last four games on Fieldturf.

Game outlook: The 49ers were the better team in the regular season, with a 7.7-point differential to the Ravens’ 3.4. But as the NFL seems to prove every year, what's more important is who is hotter now.

Baltimore pulled a near-miracle to win at Denver in double overtime, and then handled New England by two touchdowns in Foxborough. In three playoff games, Joe Flacco has thrown eight TD passes without an interception. The only QBs to throw more scoring passes without a pick in the playoffs have been Joe Montana (11) after the 1989 season and Steve Young (9) after ’94. Both won Super Bowls that year.

Second-year sensation Colin Kaepernick has been just as good. He beat the Packers with his legs (playoff QB-record 181 rushing yards) and dissected the Falcons with his arm (16-for-21, 233 yards). In the playoffs, he’s averaging a ridiculous 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Fair or not, most experts give a slight coaching edge to San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh over his brother John.

Ravens’ offense: A revamped offensive line is creating running lanes for Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce and protecting Flacco, who’s been sacked just four times in three playoff games. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie’s return to form allowed Michael Oher to move back to the more comfortable right tackle spot and Kelechi Osemele to play left guard. Few guards pull as well as Pro Bowler Marshal Yanda.

In the postseason, Pierce is gaining 6.3 yards per carry, and the Ravens are averaging 148.7 rushing yards. Torrey Smith’s game-breaking speed – he has 18 TD catches the past two seasons and a career average of 17.1 yards per catch – has opened up the middle for Anquan Boldin and tight end Dennis Pitta, who’s caught 10 balls for 137 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs.

Ravens’ defense: With a bend-but-don’t-break philosophy, Baltimore is the first team to win three games in a single postseason while allowing 375 yards in each game. The Ravens excel in the red zone, allowing TDs on just 43 percent of possessions (2nd, NFL). Terrell Suggs’ improved health has made a difference: the Ravens are allowing 4.9 yards per play in the playoffs compared to 5.2 in the regular season.

But the secondary is vulnerable. Safety Ed Reed is a shell of his former self. Cornerback Corey Graham has allowed 210 receiving yards in the playoffs, 60 more than any other player, though he does have two INTs and two passes defended. Outspoken Bernard Pollard leads all safeties with eight penalties this season.

Ravens' key injuries:

LB Dannell Ellerbe (toe/back) probable

RB Bernard Pierce (knee/thigh) probable

DL Haloti Ngata (knee) probable

49ers’ offense: It’s not just the “pistol” formation Baltimore has to worry about. The 49ers boast the NFL’s most diverse running game, using traps and counters to average 6.6 yards per carry with seven TDs in two playoff games. The Ravens haven’t seen a running quarterback or a zone-read scheme in the postseason, having faced pocket-passers Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Kaepernick is deadly when faking handoffs out of the pistol and throwing long. He’s the most accurate deep passer in the league by a wide margin.

Michael Crabtree is becoming a legitimate No. 1 receiver, catching 23 balls for 348 yards and four scores over the last three games. San Francisco has averaged 30.2 points over its last six games.

49ers’ defense: This unit ranked second in points allowed (17.1) and third in total yards allowed and features the league’s surest tacklers. Don’t look for Rice to shed a bunch of arm tackles. San Francisco allows an NFL-low 1.2 yards after contact per rush. CB Tarell Brown has missed just one tackle compared to 68 made tackles.

The 49ers also don’t give up the long ball. They’ve allowed three TD passes on throws that traveled at least 21 yards in the air, tied for second-fewest. But it’s been five games since OLB Aldon Smith got a sack – he racked up his 19.5 sacks over the first 13 games. While Smith did have seven QB hits/hurries in the NFC Championship, this is not the same pass rush with Justin Smith playing through a torn triceps.

49ers' key injuries:

LB Ahmad Brooks (shoulder) questionable

LB Aldon Smith (shoulder) questionable

LB Navorro Bowman (shoulder) probable

DT Justin Smith (elbow/triceps) probable

Check here for 49ers injury updates.

The Linemakers' takes: Three of the four Linemakers — Kenny White, Micah Roberts and Rick Herron — are on the Ravens +4. Richie Baccellieri likes the 49ers on the money line, and we offered a betting strategy around that play earlier this week.

It's hard to quibble with Sunday's point spread; it's right about where it belongs. But after beating Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady in New England — and both rather handily (the Broncos did have two special teams touchdowns, after all) — we'll take our shot with this seasoned Baltimore squad on a neutral field vs. the still-green Colin Kaepernick.

There's a split of opinion on the total, with Micah and Rick on the OVER, and Kenny leaning UNDER. Kenny, remember, said before the conference championship games that the total for this matchup would be around 45.5. Rick and Micah point out, however, that the 49ers are an eye-opening 9-1 to the OVER since Kaepernick has taken the reins. And the vaunted San Fran defense hasn't exactly been shutting down opposing offenses during these playoffs. Rick and Micah also have takes on a few props that correlate with that opinion.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

47 Great Betting Notes for Super Bowl XLVII
By Covers.com

We put together a list of the best 47 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.

Super Bowl/Prop Betting Notes

1. The loser has scored exactly 10 points in four of the six previous Super Bowls at the Superdome.

2. The average margin of victory in those six games at the Superdome was 22 points, thanks to blowouts conducted by arguably the two greatest teams of all time: the 1989 San Francisco 49ers and the 1985 Chicago Bears. The last Super Bowl played in New Orleans, however, was the razor-thin 20-17 New England victory over St. Louis in 2002. (note via cbc.ca)

3. As NFL head coaches, neither Harbaugh has lost a game following a bye week including the playoffs. John is 6-0; Jim is 3-0-1.

4. Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

5. Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

6. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS.

7. The over is 3-2 in San Francisco's last five trips to the Super Bowl. The Ravens covered the over by themselves against the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

8. The last running back to be Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis (Broncos 1998). Since then nine QBs, three WRs, and two defensive players have won MVP.

9. The Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular prop bets every year. 'Heads' has been the right call in the last four Super Bowls and five of the last six.

10. Until last season, when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years. (Marc Lawrence)

11. Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times.

12. In the past 20 years, 17 Super Bowls have been won by the team that hails from the city with the lower unemployment rate. It would seem a win for the Ravens is a slam dunk then with Baltimore's 7.2 percent rate trumping San Francisco's 8.2 percent rate. (Fox Sports)

13. Tecmo Bowl, the football arcade game originally released in 1988, predicted a 49ers 37-17 victory in a simulated Super Bowl game recently conducted by a group called The TecmoBowlers.

14. The Super Bowl record for the team that scores first is 30-16 SU.

Action Betting Notes

15. The most action wagered in Nevada on a Super Bowl came in 2006 when $94.5 million was taken in for the Seahawks-Steelers game. The books won nearly $9 million in Pittsburgh's 21-10 victory - a win percentage or hold of 9.3 percent. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

16. The only time Nevada sportsbooks lost money on the Super Bowl in the past 10 years was the 2008 game between the Giants and Patriots. They lost a combined $2.6 million in total (-2.8 percent hold) in the Giants' 21-17 victory. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

17. Teddy Covers: "I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff."

18. John Avello, executive director of sports and racing at the Wynn Las Vegas says about 20 percent of the total Super Bowl handle will be from prop bets.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Notes

19. San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has improved against added pressure during the postseason, primarily because he is making quicker decisions. He held onto the football for 3.8 seconds before passing, taking a sack or scrambling in the regular season when facing five or more pass rushers (league average: 3.4 seconds). That has dipped to 2.8 seconds in the postseason, and the result has been a 98.9 total quarterback rating (out of 100).

20. Super Bowl XLVII will end a streak of five straight title games where at least one quarterback had Super Bowl experience (ESPN Stats and Info).

21. The 49ers feature nearly twice as many former first-round picks (15) than the Ravens (8). (ESPN Stats and Info)

22. The NFC has won three straight Super Bowls. The last time the NFC won four in a row was streak of 13 straight Super Bowl wins from 1984-96.

23. Thirty-nine of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned top-10 ranked defenses.

24. While clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

25. The 49ers are 5-0 all-time in the Super Bowl. They are the only franchise with more than one Super Bowl appearance without a loss.

26. San Francisco needs a win Sunday to tie Pittsburgh as the only franchises to win six Super Bowls.

27. The 49ers' Vernon Davis has the most receiving yards per game (110.5) by a tight end in postseason history.

28. The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt. He is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

29. Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

30. The over is 6-0 in San Francisco's last six games overall.

31. San Francisco had the No. 3 total defense in the league this year, the No. 2 scoring defense, the No. 2 rushing defense and the No. 4 passing defense in the regular season.

32. The 49ers are averaging significantly more yards and points in all those categories in the playoffs, except for rushing yards per game, where they're giving up about two fewer yards per game than in the regular season.

33. The Niners have greatly increased the use of the option their two playoff games, running the play 29 times while averaging 8.4 yards per rush with four touchdowns. (ESPN Stats & Info)

34. The San Francisco 49ers have outscored opponents 114-58 in the third quarter this season.

35. The Niners have been outscored 64-78 by their opposition in the first quarter this season.

36. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Notes

37. Ray Rice is averaging 21.3 carries per game this postseason. The Ravens are 21-3 when he starts and gets more than 20 carries.

38. The Ravens lead the all-time series with the 49ers 3-1 and have won three straight. The last two Ravens-49ers games have had a combined two TDs scored.

39. The Ravens are 7-1 all-time as the No. 4 seed. Their previous Super Bowl win in 2001 came as a No. 4 seed. Baltimore boasts a 13-7 record in the postseason, the best win percentage of any franchise.

40. The Ravens have allowed only two passing TDs to tight ends this season (including the playoffs) - the fewest TDs allowed to tight ends this season.

41. Baltimore's only Super Bowl appearance was in 2001, which was one of the most profitable Super Bowls for sportsbooks (16.3% win percentage) over the past 12 seasons. The Ravens were favored by three points in their 34-7 win over the Giants.

42. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.

43. The Ravens had to play in three playoff games prior to the Super Bowl, while San Francisco has only had to play in two. Five of the last seven Super Bowl winners had to play in the Wild Card round.

44. With eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, Joe Flacco has a shot to tie or break Joe Montana's record for most touchdown passes without throwing an interception in a single postseason. (ESPN Stats & Info)

45. Every quarterback who has finished a postseason throwing at least eight touchdowns without a pick has not only won the Super Bowl, but also the Super Bowl MVP. (ESPN Stats & Info)

46. The Ravens are 10-5 in road/neutral playoff games - the best win percentage of any franchise. (ESPN Stats and Info)

47. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the fourth quarter.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Conensus Prop Plays
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hundreds of props are available to be bet on for Super Bowl XLVII, as there is no shortage of wagers to be made between the Ravens and 49ers. The range is wide going from the longest pass to the amount of passes Dennis Pitta will catch for Baltimore. We narrowed the list down to six of the most popular props and surveyed some of the top NFL handicappers on VegasInsider.com to get their opinions on these plays.

The total heading into Sunday's action sits at 48, but each team's individual team total can be bet on. The math is easy on how to figure out each club's number, as the Niners are four-point favorites, so their team total is 26, while Baltimore's is 22. Brian Edwards believes the Ravens will eclipse their team total, "Joe Flacco is playing the best football of his career, evidenced by eight touchdown passes without an interception in these playoffs. Flacco has been the better quarterback in games against Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. He has great weapons in Ray Rice, Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, which will produce points."

The Ravens compiled at least 24 points in all three playoff victories, while sailing over that number in four of the last five games. Joe Nelson agrees with Edwards on Baltimore putting up at least 23 points, "While San Francisco had great defensive numbers on the year, they have allowed more than this number in four of the last five games, showing some vulnerability against the pass."

One of the more interesting props is whether or not a team will score three consecutive times. In the last five Super Bowls, a team has put together three straight scores on four occasions, but only three squads accomplished this. In Super Bowl XLVI last February, both the Patriots and Giants cashed this prop, while the Saints scored three straight times twice in Super Bowl XLIV.

Nelson doesn't feel one squad will go on this type of scoring run on Sunday, "While these teams have had great scoring stretches in the playoffs including both teams holding their opponent scoreless in the second half of the conference championship games, there should be opportunities for both teams to score and with long field goals very possible indoors it will be tough to hold a team scoreless for an extended period."

Focusing on individual props, plenty of the money will be wagered on the two quarterbacks, Flacco and Colin Kaepernick. The total on Flacco's passing yards in Super Bowl XLVII is set at 255½, as the Baltimore quarterback eclipsed this number in two of three playoff games. Nelson points out that the 'under' is the look, "While the Ravens should have the ability to score, they will be a run-first team if they gain a lead in a game of this magnitude. Flacco had big numbers in the playoffs thanks to a few big plays and playing on a team that had to come from behind in the last two wins."

The Ravens' defense is facing the most mobile quarterback is has seen in the postseason with Kaepernick's ability to run, as the 49ers' signal-caller is listed at 54½ rushing yards on Sunday. Antony Dinero believes that the 'over' on this prop is the winning one, "While the Ravens are going to funnel many option read looks to go to the running back and have a spy in place for Kaepernick to deal with more often than not, the likelihood of him piecing together a few big gains is too great not to ride with his legs. Be it in a two-minute situation, comeback effort or to kill the clock, he'll break off a few huge runs."

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl Preview

We talked two weeks ago about success #4 seeds have in conference title games; well, since 1990, six #4 seeds made it to a Super Bowl- the last five went 5-0 vs spread, going 3-2 SU (Buffalo got crushed in '92). #4 seeds are division winner with worst record in conference, but they get in the tournament, get a home game in first round, and they've done well. Baltimore is a #4 seed.

I'm disregarding Baltimore's 16-6 win over the 49ers LY, since it was a Thursday game, so Niners had long trip on very short prep, an impossible situation.

49ers have advantage of having played in Superdome this year, winning 31-21 in Week 12 game; Ravens have only one game ever in this building, back in '06. San Francisco is 3-2 in domed stadiums this year; Ravens lost 43-13 at Houston, in their only dome game this year.

This is only 5th Super Bowl since 1990 with neither #1 seed, but 3rd in last five years; three of other four were decided by 7 or less points. NFC teams are 4-1 in last five Super Bowls, underdogs covering four of those five games.

Both teams looked dead during the playoffs; 49ers were down 17-0 in Atlanta in NFC title game, Ravens needed a ridiculous 70-yard bomb to tie game at Denver in last minute. Kaepernick had never started a game before this season, he is the 4th Super Bowl QB to say that-- two of first three won that first game.

NFC is generally better than the AFC, 49ers are higher-seeded team in the better half of the league, so logic dictates they'll win, but one red flag for the 49ers is their kicker, David Akers, who has had a bad year. Baltimore has a terrific kicker in rookie Tucker. I'm predicting the first overtime game in Super Bowl history, with the Ravens winning, 23-20.

Armadillosports.com

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super Bowl XLVII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl XXLVI
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

For those familiar with my work, you know what my program is in regards to Super Bowl betting strategy. I have always believed that you make a ‘sink-or-swim wager’ that makes you either a winner or loser on Super Sunday.

Have fun with as many proposition bets as you want, but make sure that you are on the side or the total (your sink-or-swim play) for at least 80 percent of your bankroll for the day.

For instance, if your bankroll is $1,000, put at least $800 on the side (Ravens or 49ers) or the total (‘over’ or ‘under’). In this scenario, you could make 10 prop picks for $20 apiece and lose every one of them, yet still be a big winner for the day if you hit your main pick.

Make sense? Here is my sink-or-swim pick this year.

As of early this morning, most betting shops had San Francisco (13-4 straight up, 11-7 against the spread) installed as a 3.5 or four-point favorite. The total was 48 at most spots and the Ravens were available on the money line for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).

Baltimore (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) made it to New Orleans by winning at home against Indianapolis before posting back-to-back road wins at Denver and at New England. In the process, Joe Flacco has silenced his critics by outplaying Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Flacco has eight touchdown passes without an interception in these playoffs. After trailing 13-7 at halftime of the AFC Championship Game, Flacco led the Ravens back in the second half to capture a 28-13 win at New England as eight-point underdogs. They hooked up their money-line backers with a generous plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300). The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 49.5-point total.

Flacco completed 21-of-36 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns without committing a turnover. Anquan Boldin hauled in five receptions for 60 yards and had a pair of fourth-quarter TD catches.

Baltimore’s defense intercepted Tom Brady twice with Dannell Ellerbee and Cary Williams producing one pick apiece.

San Francisco fell behind 17-0 at Atlanta early in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. I’ve been in the Ga. Dome many times for Falcons games and SEC Championship Games, but I have never heard it as loud as it was after Julio Jones made his second TD grab to give the Falcons a 17-point lead.

Nevertheless, in just his ninth career start, San Francisco second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick didn’t flinch at all. He promptly marched the 49ers down the field with LaMichael James capping the drive with a 15-yard scamper into the end zone.

After its defense got a stop, San Francisco sliced the deficit to 17-14 on a four-yard TD pass from Kaepernick to tight end Vernon Davis. But Atlanta would respond with a quick drive to take a 24-14 lead to intermission thanks to a 10-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan to Tony Gonzalez with 25 seconds remaining.

The 49ers took the opening drive of the second half and marched right down the field before Frank Gore scored a five-yard TD run. Atlanta’s offense kept moving the ball successfully in the second half, but a pair of turnovers inside San Francisco territory were costly.

Jim Harbaugh’s team took the lead for good with 8:23 left in the fourth quarter on a nine-yard TD run by Gore, who finished with 90 yards on 21 carries. The 49ers defense stopped the Falcons on downs on a late drive at crunch time to seal the 28-24 victory and a trip to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995.

Which bettors cashed tickets was determined by when the game was wagered on. The Falcons were 4 ½-point underdogs early in the week and I pulled the trigger on them at that point for a winner. Later in the week, the number moved to four and most spots closed at 3.5, so many 49er backers on game day were victorious. The 52 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 47.5-point total.

San Francisco advanced to the NFC title game with a 45-31 win over Green Bay as a three-point home ‘chalk.’ Kapernick was nothing short of sensational in his postseason debut, rushing for 181 yards and two TDs on 16 carries. The University of Nevada product also threw for 263 yards and a pair of TDs.

For the season, Kaepernick has 13 TD passes compared to only four interceptions. He has also rushed for seven TDs. Flacco has a 30/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Baltimore has been an underdog eight times this season, compiling a 4-4 spread record. Meanwhile, San Francisco has posted a 7-4 spread record as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘over’ has hit in six consecutive games and nine of the last 10 for the 49ers. They have seen the ‘over’ go 11-6-1 overall.

The ‘over’ is 10-9 overall for the Ravens, but they have watched the ‘under’ cash in four of their last five games.

Kickoff from the Superdome is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

I like the prop bets that have big payouts. One I’m bullish on is Vernon Davis to score the first touchdown of the game for a 10/1 payout.

San Francisco is unbeaten in five previous trips to the Super Bowl. The 49ers have wins over the Chargers, Bengals (twice), Dolphins and Broncos.

This is the ninth time the city of New Orleans has hosted the Super Bowl. In 1990, San Francisco destroyed Denver by a 55-10 count at the Superdome.

These teams played each other during the regular season last season. San Francisco had to travel across the country on a short week to face Baltimore on a Thursday night. The Ravens won a 16-6 decision as 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 22 combined points went ‘under’ the 40.5-point total. Flacco’s eight-yard scoring strike to TE Dennis Pitta on the first play of the fourth quarter gave Baltimore the lead for good.

I have to give Jim Harbaugh props galore for making the tough decision to stick with Kaepernick after he shined while Alex Smith sat out two weeks due to a concussion. The only time in recent memory that we’ve seen such a decision rewarded with a trip to the Super Bowl was when Patriots head coach Bill Belichick stuck with rookie QB Tom Brady over Drew Bledsoe. That was 11 years ago and the result was a 20-17 win for New England over St. Louis. Where was that game played? You guessed it, the Louisiana Superdome.

Is Alex Smith ready to play if needed? I believe he is and he should be credited for the way he has handled this situation with class. Remember, Brady sprained his ankle in the AFC Championship Game at Pittsburgh and Bledsoe came in and played well in the upset victory over the Steelers.

Baltimore is in its second Super Bowl in franchise history. In 2001, the Ravens rolled past the Giants by a 34-7 count at Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa. Ray Lewis was named the MVP. His odds to do so again are 8/1 at Sportsbook.ag.

Sportsbook.ag has Kapernick as the plus-160 favorite to win Super Bowl MVP honors. Flacco has the second-shortest odds at 3/1. Gore and Ray Rice have 10/1 and 12/1 odds, respectively. I think Rice is worth a shot for a small amount for a 12/1 return.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213407 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44812
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
280517
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.5
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3554
Newest User:
Kevin
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
1725

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com