Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

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St Louis +11.5
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I am certain this selection will be one of those that have people scratching their heads. Why in the hell would anyone back the Rams here as they travel out to San Francisco to play the role of human sacrifice to the powerful 49ers. Well guys, trust me when I say I am not suggesting you go large here or play the Rams on the money line to pull off the outright. No way I can get my brain around that one. But, I do feel we have some legitimate value here with these points. After a very respectable start the Rams have been back peddling but I have a strong feeling Jeff Fisher will have his team focused and more than ready to rumble here with the Niner's. One thing I have noticed through the years is that teams generally bounce back with a strong effort when coming off a blow out loss as St Louis clearly is. I do think the Rams can apply enough pressure on Smith to make him toss up some mistakes. As soon as you start totally buying into Alex he does something to remind you that he is indeed Alex Smith, not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. I'll be candid with you guys, I cannot find a single relevant trend to support my cause. I'll call it what it is, a gut feeling. This game did not make my subscribers card of primary plays but I do like them enough to cover here to post it as a free release and worth a small wager. This is a ton of points in the NFL.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Bryan Leonard
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Carolina +4.5
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If you've handicapped the NFL for any amount of time you know that the league is always in flux, the team of the week syndrome affects the Broncos here. After three straight wins Denver has now been anointed the best team in the league, regression is about to hit. Against good teams Denver beat Pittsburgh by 12, lost to Atlanta by 6, lost to Houston by 6 and lost to New England by 10. Despite their record, this Carolina squad is a pretty good team.
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Carolina has lost just once all season by more than 6 points, and that was against the Giants right after they found out four key Giants players would not be suiting up. They lost by two at Atlanta, one at Chicago and by four hosting Seattle. This team is much better than their record and is once again gaining confidence.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Dwayne Bryant
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San Diego / Tampa Bay Under 47.5
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When you initially think of these two teams facing off, you think of plenty of points being scored.  Having said that, I feel this number is a bit too high.  The Bucs are missing their top two offensive linemen, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph.  That will hinder their offense as they go up against the best defense they've faced this season so far.  San Diego doesn't surrender a lot of points or yards, and they're one of the best in the league at stopping the run.
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On the flip side, San Diego's offense hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire.  Of the 31 points they scored in their last game against KC, 14 of those points were from defensive TDs.  They managed just six points in the game before that at Cleveland.  This game starts at 1 pm ET, which is the equivalent of a 10 am PT start for these West Coast natives from San Diego.  I expect the early start to cause some early sluggishness on the offensive side of the ball.  At most, I'm expecting 43 or 44 points to be scored in this one.  That's enough of an overlay to put me on the UNDER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

MTi Sports
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St Louis +12.5
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The Rams have not performed well as a big dog, but we think this is a great spot for Jeff Fisher to display his coaching ability.  St Louis is off a three-game stretch against the Dolphins, Packers and Patriots (in London) and they are off their bye week.  We think Fisher will have his team ready for this one and he will be able to take advantage of the fact that the 49ers are in a huge flat spot.
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San Francisco's last two games were against the Seahawks on Thursday and the Cardinals on Monday - both dominating wins over a divisional opponent.  In their game vs the Cardinals, they were up 24-0 before allowing a field goal.  The Niners did not allow a single rushing first down in the game and they recorded four sacks.  So, their bye did not come at a good time.  Now the 49ers have a Monday Night game vs the Bears next week.  It would be very easy for them to overlook the Rams.  San Francisco loves to play on Monday Night, but they are 0-8 ATS since 2002 the week before playing on Monday Night, failing to cover by an average of 8.6 ppg.
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In addition, San Francisco is 0-12-1 ATS vs an NFC foe when they are off a game in which they covered by at least six points and recorded at least four sacks.
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When they two met in San Francisco last season, the Rams were 2-9 and were missing many key players including starting QB Sam Bradford.  The linesmakers made the Niners a 14-point favorite and they delivered with a 26-0 shutout.  The win clinched the NFC West.   Here the Rams have a new, quality head coach and are playing with confidence, passion and character.  They should not be embarrassed again.  Take this huge number.
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MTi's FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 24 St Louis 20

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

NFL Betting Picks

Miami Dolphins -5.5

Miami will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Tennessee is just 3-6 this year and 1-3 on the road. The Dolphins are 4-4 and 2-1 at home. Tennessee has lost two straight and 4 of 6, including their 51-20 loss at home on Sunday against the Bears. In their three victories they've scored 26+ points, but in their 6 losses they've scored 20 or fewer points in all games and 14 or fewer points in 5 of the 6. That isn't good news for them heading into Miami facing a tough defense. The Dolphins dropped a 23-20 game on Sunday in Indianapolis, but had won three straight before that. The Dolphins rank 24th in the league overall defensively, but are 6th in papg at just 18.6. The Titans on the other hand are 30th overall and last at 32nd in papg at 34.2. They give up 141 yards against per game on the ground (30th) and that should be troubles going against a good running team in the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill has shown improvement completing 22 of 38 last week for 290 yards and a TD. Take note that the Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents. The Titans are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs AFC opponents, and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Losing 5 of their 6 games by 21+ points I don't see the Titans keeping this one close against a well balanced Dolphins team. I expect the Dolphins to win by a touchdown or more on Sunday - take them to cover


6-Point Teaser - Ravens -1 & Texans +7.5

Again both legs of this teaser follow the basic strategy of crossing over the biggest key numbers in the NFL - 3 and 7. The first leg is Ravens -1 who host the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders enter the game 3-5, and just 1-3 on the road. Road losses have come against Miami, Denver, and Atlanta (by an average of 18.7 points) and their lone road win was against Kansas City. Last week the Raiders hosted the Buccaneers and lost 42-32 as 1 point favorites. Baltimore comes into this one with a 6-2 record and a perfect 4-0 home record. They've won 5 of their last 6 games, with wins over New England, Cleveland twice, Kansas City and Dallas. Their lone loss over that span was a 43-13 loss in Houston. Baltimore has won 15 straight home games. Baltimore's defense is facing injuries and it is showing this year as they rank 26th overall defensively. The Raiders are 21st defensively but are giving up 4.6 more points against per game than the Ravens. Oakland's offensive is ranked better overall, but again the Ravens out score Oakland by over 3 points per game. Note that the Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Baltimore. Baltimore is the much better team and they are very good at home. I expect Baltimore to win and cover the 7 point spread (and cover this leg of the teaser for us). The next leg of the teaser is Houston +7.5 who is playing in a Prime Time showdown Sunday night with the Bears. This will be a battle of the 7-1 teams, as the Texans enter Sunday's game perfect on the road at 3-0 with their only loss coming against Green Bay at home. They've won two straight against Buffalo and Baltimore covering the spread in both contests. On the season they are 6-2 ATS. The Texans should be well rested as they haven't been on the road in over a month. Chicago is 4-0 at home, with their lone loss also coming against the Packers in Green Bay. Chicago is coming off a big defensive effort that allowed them to beat Tennessee 51-20 last week easily cover the 4.5 point spread. The Bears are 5-3 ATS this year, but they've failed to cover the spread in their last two home games winning by 1 point and 6 points. The Texans offense is ranked 12th overall while the Bears are 25th, but the Bears are just 0.1 ppg behind. Both teams have great defenses, with Houston ranking 3rd and Chicago 6th, but the Bears being 2nd in papg and the Texans 3.1 points behind in 4th. Take note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Given the very good defenses both teams have I expect this to be a tight game. I give the QB edge to Houston, and I think we have a lot of value with them in a teaser.


6-Point Teaser - Saints +8.5 & Cowboys +7

First of all I should mention that you probably won't find Cowboys +7 on a 6 point teaser any more as the line has moved to Dallas -1.5 from +1 in most places. I would recommend making this a no bet if you didn't get that number, or you have the option of teasing Saints with one of the two teams in the teaser above. Secondly although this doesn't completely cross the key number of 7, we still have value as the line has shifted with the sharp money coming in on the Cowboys. Lets take a look at why I like Dallas here in this teaser. Both teams enter the game 3-5, with the Cowboys being 2-3 on the road and the Eagles 2-2 at home. Dallas isn't playing great football right now losing 4 of their last 5, but their losses have come against some good football teams in Atlanta, New York Giants, Chicago, and Tampa Bay. With that said the Eagles have downright been awful lately, losing 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Losses have come against New Orleans, Atlanta, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Arizona, while their win came at home vs the Giants. The Eagles are just 1-6-1 ATS this season. Philadelphia's 3 victories have come by a combined 4 points. Dallas QB Tony Romo isn't having the best season ranked 22nd in QB Rating, but Michael Vick is worse at 28th with a 77.7 QB Rating. He has been sacked 27 times, including 7 this past Monday where their offensive line looked awful. Dallas isn't a team I want to bet on right now against the spread, but I will happily take them getting 7 points in a teaser against the Eagles who have a lot of problems right now. The next leg is backing the Saints +8.5 as they host the 8-0 Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a 19-13 home win against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Although any win is a good win in the NFL, it is worth noting that the only team above .500 the Falcons have beat was Denver at home by 6 points. Now Saints aren't above .500 either, but they are on their way up winning 3 of their last 4 games. Wins have come against San Diego, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia (covering the spread in all three) with the loss coming @Denver. Despite an improvement last week, the Saints defense is still ranking 32nd in the NFL. But with that said, the Saints offense is ranked 5th and they are 8th in PPG just behind the Falcons. We also know that Brees is tough to beat at home. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. When these two teams meet the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Being a divisional game with the Saints at home and playing better right now I like this to be a tight game, and the Saints at least staying within a touchdown.


Denver Broncos -3.5

Denver heads to Carolina with a 5-3 record and 2-2 road record. The Panthers are 2-6 and just 1-3 at home. Peyton Manning has led the Broncos to 3 straight victories and they have won 4 of their last 5. Their lone loss over that span came in New England. After a 1-2 start to the season the Broncos offense seems to be clicking, and they've scored 31+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Denver has also scored 21+ points in all 8 of their games this season. On the other hand the Panthers have scored 21+ points just 4 times this year. They are coming off a 21-13 win in Washington, but had lost 5 straight before then. The Panthers aren't far behind Denver defensively. The Broncos rank 10th in the league overall and the Panthers are sitting at 13th, and are giving up less than 1 more ppag. The big difference here comes on offense where the Broncos rank 3rd overall and the Panthers are 20th. Denver is 4th in PPG at 29.4, while the Panthers are 27th in the league with 18.6 PPG. Peyton Manning looks like he's had no time off, leading the league with a 108.6 QB Rating, throwing 20 TDs and 6 INTs while completing 69.5% of his passes. Cam Newton on the other hand is having a rough season after a great rookie year. Newton is completing 57% of his passes for 1902 yards but has just 6 TDs to 8 INTs and a 77.7 QB Rating. He also hasn't been as good on the ground with 347 yards and 4 TDs but 8 fumbles (3 lost). Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record. Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. I don't see this defense being able to do much to stop Manning, and I think the Broncos win and cover on the road as they continue to roll.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Wunderdog

New York Jets at Seattle
Pick: New York Jets +6

The New York Jets had a well-timed bye week after a horrid performance at home where they were beaten badly by Miami, 30-9. In that game, players were accused of giving up. Is it all over for the Jets, at 3-5 and coming off a humiliating loss? I don't think it's over quite yet. The Jets are talking like a playoffs team and even at 3-5, they are still just two games out of the last wildcard spot. Coach Ryan hinted at some changes to exploit the Seahawks, but wouldn't fully disclose just what. One change needs to be with QB Mark Sanchez's issues with ball security as he has six fumbles and five INTs over the last five games. Let's not forget that the Jets went to Foxboro and almost beat the Patriots. So, they certainly are capable of winning here or at least playing competitive. The biggest problem for Seattle has been finding offense and the end-zone. Through nine games the Seahawks have scored 16 points or less in five of them. Those are tough numbers if you're backing nearly a TD favorite. Russell Wilson is still a rookie and has played erratically, throwing eight INTs on the season. Rex Ryan is the master of disguise, and having two weeks to scheme the defense. I think the Jets hang around in this one.

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Bruce Marshall

Buffalo vs. New England
Pick: Over

Buffalo is winning the NFL fashion wars these days, as their return to their '70s-style royal blue pants with their road unis has been quite well-received. Too bad the 3-5 Bills aren't playing as good as they look, as their 0-for-the-millennium playoff streak appears as if it will continue. Meanwhile, New England's new Oregon-inspired uptempo attack had Jeff Fisher's Ram defense gasping for air when last seen in London. The leaky Buffalo rush defense (6 ypc!) will be in trouble vs. emerging Stevan Ridley (716 YR). In Bill Belichick's latest beatdown of the Bills, the Pats scored 45 in second half Sept. 30, N.E.'s 17th SU win last 18 in the series, and part of N.E.'s "over" string that extends to late in the 2009 season ("over" 34-12 last 46!). Bills also "over" 17-9 since last in the 2010 campaign.

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David Chan

Miami vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis

The Heat won 95-89 over Atlanta on Friday, but come into Memphis likely without the services of Dwayne Wade once again.

Also note that LeBron James hurt his knee in the win over the Hawks.

Chris Bosh led the charge in the win with 24 points; Ray Allen chipped in 17.

It's interesting to note though that Miami is in fact just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of 3-points or less.

The Grizzlies are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and I'm fully expecting them to defend their home court this evening.

Most recently Memphis beat Houston 93-85 led by 21 points by Rudy Gay.

Zach Randolph chipped in 15 points to go along with 14 boards.

Memphis is one of the leagues best rebounding teams as well at almost 45 per game.

Also note that the Grizz have given up an average of just 90.8 points during their win streak.

Already 2-0 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd, note that Memphis is 50-34 ATS in the same position over the last two.

I believe there are enough significant advantages working in favor of the home side to consider a second look at it in this matchup!

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Scott Spreitzer

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

Carolina has come through for me each of the last two weeks and I believe they're the right side again. The Panthers may be just 2-6 SU, but they have lost five games by a grand total of just 18 points. They're just a handful of plays from a 6-2 or even a 7-1 SU mark. This will be a tough test for the Denver defense that I believe will be "chasing" all afternoon. While Peyton Manning gets it done against everybody, it should be noted that while Denver is 4-1 SU in their last five games, they haven't exactly faced the NFL's version of "murderer's row" to get there. Denver has beaten Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, and Cincinnati. The Broncos also have back-to-back divisional games on deck. We'll back the Carolina Panthers plus the points for the third straight week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Rob Vinciletti

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers    
Play: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers may not win much but they are close losers in every game. They are coming off a nice road dog win last week which sets them up in a nice system here today that plays on certain home dogs off a road dog win in non conference games vs an opponent off a win. The Broncos keep rolling along. However they are just 1-10 to the spread after scoring 30 or more in 3+ games. The Panthers are 9-0 ats in game 8 or later vs an opponent that averages 375 or more yards. Look for the Panthers to keep it close and get the Cash here today.

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Dave Cokin

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Detroit Lions

Weather favors the Vikings, but that's about it. Detroit is getting warmer and unless they step into an invisible pothole, they ought to handle a Vikings team that has become one-dimensional. I'll opt for the Lions as small road chalk.

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Joe Gavazzi

Atlanta Hawks +6

Clippers will be a very popular team now that they have beaten San Antonio and Portland on consecutive nights. The addition of Jamal Crawford and the emergence of Jordon make this a deeper and more complete team. Yet with Miami Heat as their next opponent, they will no doubt look past an Atlanta team considered by many to be rebuilding. A good chance for Josh Smith and PG Keague to lead the upset. Don't miss my 3* College Hoops winner today along with 6 NFL winners. NFL 6-1 last week. Get 'em all right here on Pregame.com at http://bit.ly/nuVjYP

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Andre Gomes

Broncos / Panthers Under 47

I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game. I know Peyton Manning is having a ridiculously good season, however he will be facing a very good defense today. Unlike what happened on Denver's last two games, where they faced the two poor pass defenses of New Orleans and Cincinnati, the Panthers are definitely improving on defense, after a very poor start of the season. They completely stopped RGIII last week and they have allowed just 16 points to Seattle, 19 points to Dallas, 23 points to Chicago and 13 points to Washington on their last four games. Not bad for a lowly team with a 2-6 record! The main reasons for the Panthers' good defensive performance are their pass rush who is working really well and a very good red zone defense, as they are #6 in the league in red zone efficiency allowed. I know Denver has a good offensive line and they are #2 in red zone efficiency, however I believe this is a letdown spot for Denver's offense, after a tough comeback win at Cincinnati last week and Carolina is certainly very motivated to play against Peyton Manning today.

The problem for the Panthers is that their offense keeps being a mess. Cam Newton is having a very disappointing sophomore season and even though he is #2 in yards per pass attempt, he is also #29 in completion percentage, #28 in QB rating and #20 in third down conversion, while posting a very poor 6/8 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers' offensive line is just average and it's expected that the Broncos' good pass rush put Newton in a lot of pressure today. Denver has been quite good in not allowing big passing plays to their opponents this season (#6 in yards per pass attempt), so I expect them to clearly limit Carolina's passing game today. The Panthers have a decent running game, but also in here Denver has a good run defense by being #6 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards. Therefore, I expect Denver to have a good defensive game and limit the Panthers to a low offensive production today.

As I expect Carolina to not allow Peyton Manning to have another huge game and the Broncos to clearly stop the Panthers' offense, I believe the totals line is just too high for the kind of game we will have in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

San Francisco/ St Louis Under 38.5: This San Francisco defense is very tough, ranking 2nd overall, 2nd vs the pass and 2nd in scoring (12.9 ppg). They have allowed 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and their two division games have scored a total of 46 points. This sdefense will not have all that hard a time of keep this struggling St Louis under wraps. The Rams are 28th in total offense and 28th in scoring offense (17.1) and even the possible return of Amendola won’t help them much vs this defense. The St Louis defense has been pretty solid, ranking 14th over (343 ypg) and 21st in points allowed (23.2 ppg) and they will be facing a Niners offense that plays rather conservative at home, averaging just 22 ppg. With their defense playing so well the Niners have gone back to more of a conservative offense and that will keep them from putting up a tone of points, while their defense will keep this popgun attack of the Rams in check. Low 30’s at best here. 

4 UNIT PLAYS

Detroit -3 over MINNESOTA: A bit of payback here for the Lions, who held Minnesota to just 2 FG's and 227 yards of offense, but still lost 20-13 thanks to a punt return and Kick return for a TD by the Vikes. Now the Lions are starting to play much better and their offense is clicking as they have put up 59 points in their last 2 games. Not good news for a Minnesota team that has allowed 66 points in their last 2 games and 118 points in their last 4 games. This after just allowing just 15.8 ppg in their first 5 games. The Minnesota offense is struggling of late as they have averaged just 19.3 ppg in their last 3 games, In that stretch Christian Ponder has hit just 38 of 74 passes for 327 yards, plus he has 6 INT's in his last 4 games. The Detroit defense has played well of late as they have allowed just 314.7 ypg and 17 ppg in their last 3 games. These teams are heading in opposite directions and Detroit will win this round by at least a TD,

3 UNIT PLAYS

NEW ORLEANS +2.5 over Atlanta: New Orleans is on a roll and looking to get back in the payoff chase after a bad start. The Saints have won 10 or their last 12 games vs the Falcons and Matt Ryan is just 2-5 vs the Saints, giving the Saints a couple of more edges. New Orleans offense is clocking and have been very hard to stop all year, ranking 5th in total offense, 2nd in passing on their way to scoring 27.6 ppg. Yes Atlanta has a solid defense, but they can be run on (24th in league) and The New Orleans run game should have a good showing, which will only help their passing game even more (as if they needed it. LOL). Atlanta’s offense is very good this year, and the Saints defense is very bad, but I do feel that the Saints will score just enough to get the outright win in this one. New Orleans needs this game much more, they are playing with confidence and at home they should get a big win.


New England/ Buffalo Over 53:This one could be a fun one, especially for you Scotti. LOL The last 3 in this series has put up at least 65 points in each game and the earlier game this year saw 80 points being scored. In that game Biuffalo allowed the Pate 52 points and since then this Buffalo defense has allowed 45 to San Fran and 35 to Tennessee. Not exactly explosive offenses. Buffalo has allowed 33.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they have allowed 40.8 ppg in their last 5 meetings with the Pats. New England's offense is tops in the league, averaging 440.8 ypg and 1st in scoring at 32.8 ppg. This offense is rolling and in their last game, overseas, they hung 45 points on a much better defense (St Louis) then they will face today. The Patriots defense is 22nd overall and 28th vs the pass, plus they allow 21.2 ppg. The Buffalo offense is 27th in passing, but they should be able to crack this Pats defense for some big plays. The Bills average 22.5 ppg and if they can get to at least 21 points we will be golden, cause the Pats have scored at least 34 points vs the bills in each of the last 5 games between these two teams. I see allot of points in this one.


Giants/ Cincinnati Under 49: Both of these teams like to throw the ball all over the place, but I feel that these teams will look to run a bit more in this one. The Bengals will have to if they hope to keep that fierce Giants pass rush off of Dalton's back, plus they would like some ball control drives to keep that Giants offense on the sidelines. The Giants love to throw the ball as well and will be taking on a weak pass defense in Cincinnati, but this giants team is not all about the 4 play quick scoring drives. They like to work the ball down the field and in time consuming drives. I see both teams employing this game plan and that should eat plenty of clock and keep this game around 42 points at best.

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EZ Money Picks

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Dallas Cowboys

Don't be concerned about Romo turning over the ball in this game. The Philadelphia Eagles are just about as bad with turnovers (-9 turnover differential). Dallas has the edge defensively. The Cowboys' D is ranked 5th against the pass with 205.5 YPG allowed. This is going to be a nightmare for the Eagles' offensive line, who gave up 7 sacks to the NFL's worst defense last week. With ball security negligible, look for the team with the stronger defense to prevail.

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HARRY BONDI

Oakland / Baltimore Over 47

The Raiders have become an "over" team, going up and over the last three weeks. The team allows more than 28 points per game on defense while on offense it throws the ball 41.4 times per game, second-most in the AFC. As we wrote in a recent Handicapper's Notebook, the Ravens defense is one of the most overrated units in the league and the new hurry-up offense the team has installed has put even more pressure on this aging unit that is allowing 389 yards per game. Baltimore games have averaged 52.2 points this year and with the pass-heavy Oakland offense coming to town we expect another 50-plus point output.

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Scott Delaney

My free pick run is now at 31-16-1, and today I'm playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the San Diego Chargers, as I've been one of the big believers of coach Greg Schiano all season and think this is going to be a big win over an AFC West foe for a second-straight week. Last Sunday Tampa Bay was my 150-Dime winner in Oakland. This week I have the Bucs as my freebie at home, as I think that defense will be too strong for San Diego.

Not only defense, but the one person who is going to enjoy this game is Vincent Jackson, who is proving he can be an asset for an offense, something the Chargers are clearly missing. Jackson is averaging a league-leading - and career-best - 22.9 yards per reception, as he's hauled in 31 passes for 710 yards over his first eight games. On the other hand, the sputtering Chargers have seen quarterback Philip Rivers throw for a mere 12 touchdowns and rather-high 10 interceptions.

Tampa's offense is going to be in the spotlight and should respond after last week's performance in Oakland, where rookie Doug Martin is in after back-to-back games with more than 200 total yards from scrimmage, including 251 rushing and four touchdowns in last week's 42-32 win over the Raiders.

The Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in scoring at 28.3 points per game, as quarterback Josh Freeman as been splendid in completing nearly 57 percent of his passes for 1,257 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four weeks. Today he gets a crack at a pass defense that ranks 18th in the NFL, and a scoring defense that has allowed an average of 22.1 points over its last six games - a field goal more than its average.

Sorry Bolts fans, another disappointing loss for you. Take the Buccaneers and buy the half point off the field-goal line and lay 2-1/2 points.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Chuck O'Brien

My free pick run is 129-95-3, and today I'll look to improve on that mark with a play on the Denver Broncos laying the points in Carolina against the struggling Panthers, who may be coming in off a win over the Washington Redskins, but still haven't done enough to impress me to think they can beat Peyton Manning.

Anyone still thinking he has some work to do to clean up the rust hasn't paid close enough attention to the resurgent Broncos, and how good the components around Manning are responding.

This is also a homecoming for Denver coach John Fox, who took the Panthers to the playoffs three times in nine seasons, including two NFC championship games and a Super Bowl. He didn't leave Carolina on the best of terms, and now has a chance to give the Panthers a preview of what might be the AFC's representative in the Super Bowl.

The Broncos (5-3) have won four of their last five with Manning throwing three touchdown passes in each of those games. Denver has scored at least 31 points in their four wins, and I just don't think Cam Newton and the Panthers are good enough to match those kinds of numbers.

Lay the road chalk with Denver.

2♦ DENVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Craig Davis

It's kind of odd, but the Jets usually play better when you count them out. In games the Jets are expected to win, or at least play good, they usually underperform.

But then when you count them out and give them virtually no chance, they somehow figure out a way to surprise the heck out of you.

Today, I believe, will be one of those days they surprise the heck out of us.

Here are the three ways the Jets cannot only cover this number, but win the game outright. The question is... can they execute?

The Jets absolutely must keep Marshawn Lynch contained. He ranks second in the league with 881 rushing yards through eight games and has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games. Considering the Jets rush defense has been as bad as its been over the past five years, Lynch should be licking his chops... but something tells me the Jets are going to try to make Russell Wilson beat them.

And speaking of Wilson, how about someone get some pressure on him? Seriously, is Seattle's offensive line that good? It's good, but not that good. Get some pressure in the rookie's face and you will see just how good he is.

And third, ball control on offense. You have to balance your rushing and passing attack to beat Seattle. If you think you're going to come into Seattle and just throw all over them, you've got another thing coming. The Jets MUST run the ball in order to give Mark Sanchez and/or Tim Tebow a chance to throw the ball with success.

I think they'll be able to do all three of these things with small success, and in the end I believe the Jets will have what it takes to stay within the six points of a Seattle team that I still can't figure out.

Take the Jets plus the touchdown as your free play of the day.

3♦ N.Y. JETS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Lions-Vikings game.

Things starting to percolate for Detroit, as they come into the Twin Cities with a pair of Overs played their last two times on the gridiron, scoring 28 against Seattle's tough defense, and 31 in a win at Jacksonville.

The Lions are now 5-2-1 Over the total for the season (although one of those Unders did come in the first meeting against Minnesota), and they are a lopsided 28-14-2 Over the price since the end of the 2009 campaign. On the road the Over numbers are even more glaring, as Detroit is on a 13-2-2 Over clip away from Ford Field in that same time frame.

Minnesota's defense has been springing leaks and they have played Over in their last pair and three of their last four overall.

Two of the last three series meetings between the teams have also played high.

Lions-Vikings to head Over the total.

3♦ DETROIT-MINNESOTA OVER

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