NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL Week 9 Opening Lines
By: The Linemakers   
Sportingnews.com

Here’s a look at NFL Week 9 opening point spreads, courtesy the LVH SuperBook, and early line moves.

Chiefs at Chargers (-10)

San Diego lost as a 3-point favorite in Cleveland, the Browns’ second win of the season. Kansas City was beaten handily, 26-16, at home vs. Oakland. The Chiefs took some early action Sunday night, and the line was moved to -9.5 shortly after being posted.

Broncos (-3) at Bengals

Denver hosted New Orleans Sunday night. Cincy was off. After the Broncos drew some early dollars, extra vig was added, making them -3 (-120).

Cardinals at Packers (-.5)

Green Bay won but failed to cover as 15.5-point favorites at home against Jacksonville. Arizona is a 7-point home dog Monday night vs. San Francisco.

Dolphins (-3) at Colts

Miami rolled over the Jets in New York for their third straight win. Indy won in overtime in Tennessee. Bettors liked Indy at home with a field goal next week, pushing the line to Dolphins -2.5

Ravens (-3) at Browns

Cleveland ran its ATS record to 4-3-1 with its win against San Diego as a 3-point home dog. They’ll be in the same role next week. The Brownies are 3-1 ATS at home and covered in Baltimore as a 12-point dog in Week 4. The Ravens were off in Week 8.

Bills at Texans (-10.5)

Both teams had byes. Houston has just one loss, at home to the Packers, and are a healthy 5-2 ATS, including two covers as double-digit home favorites. They’ll be in that role again next week, hosting Buffalo, who is 3-4 SU and ATS. Two of those wins and covers have been on the road but neither against a quality opponent like the Texans.

Panthers at Redskins (-3.5)

Carolina covered but lost in Chicago. The 1-6 Panthers have no wins on the road, but are 2-1 against the number away from home. Washington lost as 4.5-point dogs in Pittsburgh, 27-12.

Lions (-4.5) at Jaguars

Detroit held serve at home, beating Seattle, 28-24 as 3-point favorites. Next Sunday, they’re back on the road, where they’re 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Jacksonville was tougher than expected in Green Bay, getting the money as a huge underdog in a 24-15 loss. Money came in on the Jags Sunday night, and the line was adjusted to Lions -4.

Bears (-3.5) at Titans

Chicago pulled out a close, 23-22, win at home vs. the Panthers. Tennessee’s two-game winning streak was snapped in the overtime loss at home against Indy.

Vikings at Seahawks (-3.5)

Minnesota, a loser in Week 8 at home to Tampa Bay, gets back on the road, where it's 1-2 this season SU and ATS. Seattle, on the other hand, has yet to lose at home, with wins against Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Bettors think that string continues next week, as they laid the points early and pushed the line to -4.

Bucs at Raiders (-3 even)

Tampa Bay won outright as a 5.5-point dog in Minnesota on Thursday and is a profitable 5-2 ATS on the season. Oakland won in Kansas City as a 1-point dog.

Steelers at Giants (-3.5)

Pittsburgh’s been struggling away from home, their first road win coming in Cincinnati last week. The Giants took advantage of six Cowboys turnovers, getting the win and cover as road favorites in Dallas.

Cowboys at Falcons (-4.5)

Atlanta remained undefeated with an impressive 30-17 win in Philly. Dallas’ loss to the Giants dropped it to 3-4, both SU and ATS.

Eagles at Saints (-3)

Philly’s loss and non-cover to Atlanta dropped its record to 3-4 ATS and an unsightly 1-1-5 ATS. The Eagles host New Orleans, who played in Denver Sunday night, in next week’s Monday night offering.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Rested Texans (6-1, 5-2 ATS) get a dream matchup this week as they host the Buffalo Bills (3-4 SU/ATS) and x-team mate Mario Williams. The Bills not only give up the most points in the league (32.4) they given up the most rushing yards (176.9) a situation Texans' Arian Foster (659 RY, 9 TD), Ben Tate (178 RY, 2 TD) exploit. Although the NFL has turned into a passing league our trusted database tells us not to ignore teams that can run the ball while stopping the opposition from doing the same. Home teams winning the ground game this year hit success at the betting window 53.3% of the time (32-26-2 ATS). Have these same home teams sport a solid stop run unit (=<90) and lay 10 or less points cash at a 61.5% clip (16-9-1 ATS). Consider laying the points, the Texans are on a 10-1-1 ATS stretch following a game in which they allowed =<90 rushing yards, 3-1 ATS streak at home off a bye week.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta (7-0, 5-2 ATS) the lone unblemished squad with it’s explosive offense (28.7 PPG) and solid defense (18.6 PPG) have been pegged 4.5 point favorites for their tilt against visiting Cowboys (3-4, 3-4 ATS). No likely upset in the making with a Cowboy squad that tends to beat themselves with interceptions, fumbled punts, botched snaps, screw up upon screw up. Falcons ridding a 7-0 (3-3-1 ATS) streak at home outscoring visitors 30.4 to 19.7 and sporting a 16-3 (10-8-1 ATS) record in front of the home crowd the past two plus seasons winning by an average 8.1 PPG stay undefeated. Spread-wise, might want to hold our nose and take the points knowing Cowboys despite it's warts are a profitable 7-2 ATS as road dogs, 9-2 ATS (10-1 SU) vs the NFC South and that Falcons are a vig-losing 6-6 ATS laying seven or less at home.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL Week 9

Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4) — Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3) — Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3) — Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6) — Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1) — Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5) — This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6) — Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5) — Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4) — Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4) — Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2) — Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0) —All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5) — Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Armidillosports.com

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL Betting Preview: Minnesota at Seattle
By Alf Musketa
SportsMemo.com

Minnesota at Seattle

Alf Musketa's Recommendation: Seattle
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Seattle -4 O/U 39
CRIS Current: Seattle -5 O/U 38.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -4

Seattle has beaten some stellar squads; Green Bay, Dallas and New England all at home, all as an underdog and thus we tend to look at the Seahawks as a giant killer. But over the course of eight games they are just .500 with a record of 4-4. Are they better than their record indicates? Can they make the playoffs?
 
The Seahawks have a defense that ranks fifth overall in the NFL with a home field worth four points or higher and having played such a strong schedule that the answer to both of those questions is yes. Seattle has five games remaining at home, they should win the first three comfortably and then battle the 49ers and wrap up a playoff spot versus the Rams.
 
Minnesota is off a Thursday night home game where they were trounced 36-17 by the Buccaneers. The Vikings were outgained, out first downed and gave up 159 yards rushing. Scoring 17 at home is not going to win many games or get the job done in this league of parody and now facing a much better defense on the road, it is an easy calculation that the Vikings will have trouble scoring more than 14 points at CenturyLink Field, home of the 12th man.
 
Seattle played well enough to win at Detroit last week but a prevent defense and a timely touchdown with 20 seconds left (Detroit needed only a field goal to tie) gave QB Russell Wilson little time for another fourth-quarter comeback. The Seahawks’ defense plays man-to-man coverage as good as any and that translates into extra help and extra pressure up front and a stout front seven that the much counted upon RB Adrian Peterson will have to deal with. Seattle is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games at home and now with back-to-back road loses we are expecting a supreme and focused effort. Lay the points.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL Week 9

Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4) — Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3) — Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3) — Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6) — Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1) — Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5) — This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6) — Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5) — Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4) — Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4) — Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2) — Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0) — All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5) — Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Armadillosports.com

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 9
By Covers.com

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting notes on all of Week 9's action.

Carolina at Washington (-3.5, 47)

The Panthers are trying to salvage a season that has gone awry because of five losses by six points or fewer. They've dropped five straight and QB Cam Newton is mired in a sophomore slump. Newton has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. The Washington defense has been dreadful this season, allowing more than 350 total yards in every game and more than 420 four times. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Arizona at Green Bay (-11, 43.5)

Arizona was among the league's biggest surprises after opening the campaign with four straight victories, but they have come to a screeching halt during their current four-game skid, scoring a total of three touchdowns and averaging only nine points per game during that span. The Packers are going for a fourth straight victory but are missing top receiver Greg Jennings (abdominal) and fellow wideout Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury. Green Bay has played over the total in four of its last five games and faces its lowest number of the season Sunday (43.5).

Detroit at Jacksonville (4, 44)

The Lions squeaked out a 28-24 decision over the Seahawks last week and look to post back-to-back wins for the first time against the Jaguars, who will try to avoid a five-game losing skid. Jacksonville put up 341 yards of total offense last week against Green Bay without star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and QB Blaine Gabbert threw for a season-high 303 yards and a score. Jacksonville also held the dangerous Green Bay offense to a season-low 238 total yards. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Chicago at Tennessee (3.5, 43.5)

Matt Hasselbeck will start at QB in place of the injured Jake Locker but will be going up against a Chicago defense that is tied for the league lead with 16 interceptions. Titans RB Chris Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three weeks and will try to take some pressure off Hasselbeck. However, the Bears’ stop unit is yielding a league-best 77.9 yards per game while forcing 12 fumbles this season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Denver at Cincinnati (3.5, 47.5)

The Bengals must find a way to slow down Peyton Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 TDs and three INTs against Cincinnati as a member of the Colts. Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing 12 TDs while being picked off just once over the last four games. Denver may also get a boost on defense with the return of CB Tracy Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with the side effects from seizures. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore at Cleveland (3.5, 42.5)

The Ravens are coming off a bye week and have emerged victorious in the last nine meetings against the Browns - including a 23-16 triumph on Sept. 27. Cleveland stood tall and held San Diego to just a pair of field goals in a 7-6 victory last Sunday. Rookie RB Trent Richardson showed no effects of a rib injury and gashed the Chargers for a season-best 122 yards and a TD. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

Buffalo at Houston (-10, 47.5)

Buffalo is ranked last in nearly every defensive statistic including allowing an NFL-leading 32.4 points per game. Led by Arian Foster, Houston’s elite running game could have its way with a Bills team that is allowing an average of 176 yards a game on the ground and has surrendered 937 yards rushing over their last four games. Buffalo DE Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery last week but expects to play in his return to Houston. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

Miami at Indianapolis (1, 43)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s availability for this game is in question due to a bone bruise in his left knee but he was at practice on Wednesday, splitting snaps with backup Matt Moore. The Miami special teams unit was stellar in last week’s win over the Jets, becoming the first team in 20 years to block a punt, block a field goal and recover an onside kick. Andrew Luck is one 300-yard passing performance away from tying Peyton Manning’s rookie mark with four and has already helped double Indianapolis’ win total from last season. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Minnesota at Seattle (-4, 38.5)

The Seahawks suffered their second straight loss in gut-wrenching fashion, surrendering the winning touchdown with 20 seconds to play in last week's 28-24 loss at Detroit. Minnesota will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay, its second defeat in three games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season with impressive victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at CenturyLink Field.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1, 46.5)

Bucs QB Josh Freeman has passed for 10 TDs against two INTs in his past four games and RB Doug Martin had his best professional game against the Vikings last week, totaling 214 yards from scrimmage. Raiders’ tailback Darren McFadden also had a breakout performance last week, running for a season-high 114 yards in Oakland’s 26-16 win over the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 47.5)

Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be up against the NFL's top-rated pass defense that is allowing just 182.6 passing yards per game. Even more impressive is that the Pittsburgh stop unit is getting it done without star S Troy Polamalu, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game with a strained right calf. The Steelers rushing attack could receive a massive boost this Sunday with the possible return of both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Jonathan Dwyer has filled in admirably for the injured duo, racking up 229 yards on the ground in consecutive Steeler victories. Pittsburgh is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.

Dallas at Atlanta (-4, 47.5)

The Falcons, who are the lone undefeated team in the league, are coming off a convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which QB Matt Ryan threw three TD passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay. However, the Falcons have been far from dominant at home this season, winning their three games by a total of 11 points. The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the Giants last week before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have played under the total in six of their last seven road games.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3, 51.5)

Eagles coach Andy Reid is feeling the heat after his squad dropped its third straight game last Sunday and was mulling a quarterback change this week. But Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta. Vick will have a chance to break out of his slump against a New Orleans defense that has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per game – 50 yards more than the 31st-ranked Buffalo defense. The Saints are the first team to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games since 1950. The teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Seahawks have been impressive all season, despite being on a two-game losing streak. There’s no shame in losing at San Francisco or Detroit in two very close games. Bettors often shy away from the Seahawks when they’re on the road, but at when they play at home, that is when they like to jump all in.

It’s plain and simple, the Seahawks have one of the better home-field advantages in football. They’ve covered all three of their home games this season, and they were games against top-notch opponents. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo all took their teams into Seattle this season and all of them took the long flight home after the game as losers.

This week, Christian Ponder and the Vikings will visit the Emerald City with hopes that they can forget the Thursday night beating they took on national TV from the Buccaneers. After starting the season with a surprising 4-1 record, they have now fallen in two of their past three. Most of the blame can be placed upon Ponder himself and the coaching staff that doesn’t allow him to do more. When is the last time you saw Ponder throw more than 20 yards downfield?

It kind of makes it easier for opposing defenses to defend against the Vikings top weapon -- Adrian Peterson -- knowing that the coach won’t let the quarterback beat you deep.

So at this juncture of the season, how can a wager on the Vikings be justified? You can just go with the flow of the season trend by taking the points and hope that the 61 percent rate keeps hitting, but even then, you want to feel good about a wager when putting money down and there just doesn’t seem to be anything there based on their current form and Seattle’s dominance at home.

So far this week, Vikings money has been hard to find. The LVH Super Book opened the Seahawks as 3½-point favorites on Sunday night and within 90 minutes, the game had been bet up to 4½. On Monday, the game went to -5, until someone finally bit on the Vikings Thursday and pushed the number back to 4½. As of Friday, only the South Point had a five on the board in town.

Parlay action has been pretty one-sided as well. The top public parlay combinations this week, along with the Seahawks, are the Broncos (-3½), Packers (-10½), Texans (-10), and Lions (-4).

Peyton Manning is definitely back to looking like his former self after missing an entire season. The rough part of their schedule is over and Denver managed to come out a respectable 4-3 with losses coming at the hands of the Texans, Patriots, and Falcons -- teams we expect to not only make the playoffs, but do well. This week they get a Bengals squad on a three-game losing streak.

The Broncos opened as three-point road favorites at Cincinnati and have been bet up to -3½.

The Packers opened as 9½-point home favorites against the Cardinals and were bet up to as high as 11 before settling at 10½. After starting the year off with four straight wins, the Cardinals have lost their past four games, and have looked ugly do it. They can‘t run the ball and they can‘t throw the ball. The only thing you have on your side with the Cardinals is that they play good defense and have a weapon on special teams. And you also have the Packers that can seem bored at times, like last week when they went through the motions against a terrible Jacksonville squad. The Packers have only covered three of their eight games this season.

The Lions get a chance to take a whack at the Jaguars this week. While the Packers were bored, the Lions should be thrilled. They come off their best offensive performance of the season where Matt Stafford finally found some rhythm and play a Jags squad that has been beat by 75 points combined in three homes games, obviously, not covering any of them. The Lions opened as 4½-point favorites, but were bet against by large money to -4. The public doesn’t care what the line is, they just keep betting Detroit.

The Texans opened as 10½-point favorites against the Bills. Large money took the points and the Texans now sit at -10. The 61% value might be with the dog here, but the public wants nothing to do with the Bills.

-The Raiders opened as three-point favorites over the red-hot Buccaneers, and the number didn’t last long. By Tuesday morning, it was down to -1, and has since settled at 1 ½. The Bucs have averaged 31 points a game their past three with Josh Freeman looking like a Pro Bowler throwing for almost 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns over that span. But the Raiders have been playing well, too. Since getting blasted by the Broncos, the Raiders lost a heartbreaker at Atlanta, and then beat the Jaguars and Chiefs. The side bettors are looking at is the OVER, which opened 45 points and has moved to 46½.

The Giants opened as 3½-point home favorites against the Steelers, but the first large money seen was on Pittsburgh dropping the number to three. The Steelers are no bargain on the road, covering only once in their past eight road games, but the Giants don’t seem to have the same appeal at home as they do on the road, covering only seven times as a home favorite in their past 25.

The Falcons opened as 4½-point home favorites against the Cowboys, and surpringly, Dallas money has pushed the number to four.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

Broncos at Bengals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (4, 48)

It took him some time to shake off the rust of a year-long layoff, but Peyton Manning is officially back. The NFL’s only four-time MVP has the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos rolling and he’ll try to keep it going on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, who return from their bye week looking to end a three-game skid. Despite banging his thumb on a helmet early, Manning was 22-of-30 for 305 yards and three touchdowns in a dominating 34-14 victory over the New Orleans.

Manning has passed for over 300 yards in a franchise-record five straight games. He’s also the first player to record four straight games of 300-plus yards and three touchdowns with a completion percentage over 70 percent. The Bengals have had a week to devise ways to slow down Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions against Cincinnati with the Colts. Denver has won three straight and 12 of the last 14 meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 101 yards and a score in last season’s 24-22 victory in Denver.

LINE: Broncos -4, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-3): Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing for 12 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. He orchestrated an offense that amassed 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing for the first time in six years against New Orleans. The team got a brief scare when Manning smacked his thumb on a defender’s helmet in the second quarter (he didn't miss a play). Willis McGahee had 122 of the Broncos’ season-best 225 rushing yards and the 31-year-old is proving he still has plenty in the tank (he’s 10th in the league with 554 yards). Denver’s defense, ranked 14th in scoring (21.7) after holding New Orleans in check, will be without CB Tracy Porter. Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with side effects from seizures, has resumed practicing but didn't travel with the team to Cincinnati.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4): While Manning’s resurgence has sparked the Broncos, the Bengals have hit a lull after a hot start due to the struggles of second-year quarterback Andy Dalton. “The Red Rifle” has thrown six interceptions during the losing streak and was held to 105 yards in a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh prior to the bye week – his lowest total since his pro debut. The Bengals rely heavily on Dalton and second-year wideout A.J. Green, who has scored in six straight games and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns (7), because the rushing attack has been non-existent. Cincinnati is 23rd in rushing (96.6) with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging a mere 3.4 yards per carry.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.
* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Denver has outscored opponents 69-14 over the last six quarters, starting with the magical Monday night comeback against San Diego on Oct. 15.

2. Cincinnati, ranked 16th against the pass (233.1), has allowed just one 300-yard game this season when Cleveland's Brandon Weeden threw for 322 yards in Week 2.

3. Normally reserved Bengals coach Marvin Lewis challenged Dalton to be more of a leader, saying he needed him to “grab this football team by the back of its neck and (say) 'Let's go. Let's move forward.' "

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

Steelers at Giants: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 48)

Two playoff contenders clash Sunday afternoon when the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers travel to New York to face the defending Super Bowl champion Giants. The Giants are in complete control of the NFC East after holding on to beat Dallas despite blowing a 23-point lead last week, but they have to make up some ground on undefeated Atlanta to work their way into position for the NFC's top seed.

The Steelers have won two straight by getting back to playing smash-mouth football. They've averaged 148.5 rushing yards the past two weeks and allowed just 220 total yards per game during that span. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might mix things up and try to exploit a Giants defense that allowed 415 passing yards to Dallas last week. New York has won four of the past six meetings, including a 21-14 victory in the most recent clash in 2008.

LINE: Giants -3.5, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (4-3): The rise of Pittsburgh's run game has come on the shoulders of Jonathan Dwyer, who started the season as the third-string back but has taken over the featured role with injuries to Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Ironically, Dwyer (quad) has been limited in practice this week and is listed as doubtful - as is Mendenhall - but Redman is on track to play.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-2): New York's offense has been balanced and effective with Eli Manning leading the passing game and Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown heading the ground game. The defense has given up big chunks of yardage but has done a solid job of keeping opponents out of the end zone thanks to 24 turnovers.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Giants are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Steelers’ last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Steelers have allowed only one team to top 100 yards rushing (Oakland, 119) and have not allowed an opponent to pass for 300 yards.

2. The Giants are 10-0 when Bradshaw tops 100 rushing yards. He has averaged 102 yards in his past four games against AFC teams.

3. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is in position to earn his 60th career victory.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Falcons
By Covers.com

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 47.5)

Having turned the NFC South race into a runaway, the Atlanta Falcons will look to remain perfect when they host the enigmatic Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The league's lone undefeated team, the Falcons are coming off convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which quarterback Matt Ryan threw touchdown passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay.

The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the New York Giants before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. Dallas has not put together a solid all-around effort since beating the Giants on the road in the season opener. Ryan is 29-5 as a starter at the Georgia Dome, but Atlanta has been far from dominant at home this season, winning its three games by a total of 11 points.

LINE: Falcons -4, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-4): Quarterback Tony Romo has always been a lightning rod for criticism, but it's been justified this season as he has turned the ball over at an alarming pace. Romo was intercepted four times against the Giants to give him an NFL-worst 13 - three more than he thew all last season. Romo also threw for a career-high 437 yards in the game and was within an out-of-bounds fingertip of giving Dallas consecutive wins for the first time this season.  The running game has struggled all season and has been non-existent with DeMarco Murray missing the last two games. Murray (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (7-0):
Atlanta is coming off its most impressive outing of the season, scoring on its first six possessions to dismantle the Eagles. Ryan had the third-highest passer rating of his career (137.4) in throwing for 262 yards and the three TDs. Julio Jones had his first 100-yard game since Week 1 with five catches for 123 yards and one touchdown. Ryan has thrived despite a running game that ranks 24th in the league at 95.0 yards per game. Veteran Michael Turner has failed to average more than three yards per carry in four of the seven games, but he continues to get a sizable number of carries as the Falcons seek to maintain balance in their offense.

TRENDS:


* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys’ last seven road games.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 9 games.
* Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons are 28-0 when Ryan has a passer rating above 100, including 5-0 this season.

2. The Cowboys ranked fourth overall in total defense (292.4 yards per game) and third against the pass (187.7).

3. Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez needs one TD pass to reach 100 for his career.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

SNF - Cowboys at Falcons
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Sunday Night Football heads to the Georgia Dome in Week 9 as Atlanta (7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) will put its perfect record up against Dallas (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS).

Despite being the only undefeated team in the league, the Falcons aren’t getting much respect from the pundits in the sports betting business. Atlanta is the fifth choice (5/1) to win the NFC at Sportsbook.ag and it’s the seventh choice (9/1) to win the Super Bowl.

When you look at the Falcons’ schedule, there is only one team with a winning record (New York Giants) left. Plus, five of the final nine are at home, including this week’s contest. Does the team deserve a little more respect?

"We don't care. Everyone in here looks at each other in the eye and we know that we believe in each other. We think we have something special," said right tackle Tyson Clabo on the lack of respect that Atlanta has been getting nationally.

Last Sunday, Atlanta dominated Philadelphia 30-17 on the road in wire-to-wire fashion. Quarterback Matt Ryan completed 22-of-29 passes for 262 yards with three touchdowns. Ryan is hitting 68.7 percent on the season for 2,018 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s only been picked off six times, with four coming at home.

If you judge a team on how they perform on the road, then the Falcons should be on your radar. Atlanta has gone 4-0 both SU and ATS on the road, with three of the wins coming by double digits. What’s a little surprising is how the Falcons have played at home. They are unbeaten but you can argue that they could be 1-2 or even 0-3, especially when you realize that all three wins came by a combined nine points.

The Falcons stopped the Broncos 28-24 on Monday Night Football in Week 2 and most would believe that if there was an extra two minutes on the clock, Peyton Manning would’ve rallied for the win, especially after handing Atlanta the game in the first-half with interceptions.

Ryan and Roddy White’s heroics helped Atlanta steal a win over Carolina in Week 4 and if it wasn’t for Oakland’s inability to execute, the Falcons probably would’ve lost to them too.

Are the Falcons lucky? Absolutely, but a team that continues to win close games also proves that you’re very good, if not great.

Guess who hasn’t won close games this season? Dallas!

The Cowboys are coming off a 29-24 home loss to the Giants last Sunday in a game that they spotted New York 23 points. Dallas was able to rally for a 24-23 lead but New York added two late field goals and the Cowboys’ rally came up short – again.

Looking at the positives for Dallas, quarterback Tony Romo did bounce back after some early interceptions (4) and diced up the Giants defense (437 yards). Also, Dallas gave up seven scores to New York but five of those were field goals and one was a defensive touchdown.

The question gamblers will ask themselves on SNF -- can the Cowboys put together a solid effort for 60 minutes and not find a way to screw it up in the end?

If you’re looking for a straight up win, the answer might be no but Dallas does look tempting with the points. The Cowboys have gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season, with the losses coming against Seattle (7-27) and Baltimore (29-31). They easily could’ve won at the Ravens if they executed. However, dropped passes and missed field goals were the final nails in the coffin.

This week, the Falcons opened as high as six-point favorites at some offshore shops over Dallas and the money has already swung to the Cowboys. The line is down to 4 and close to 3 1/2 at a few outfits.

The perception on Dallas, in particular Romo, is that they’re soft. The Cowboys do get a lot of hype and Romo’s inability to close has often earned him the overrated label. I recently heard former Dallas quarterback and FOX analyst Troy Aikman make a comment about Romo on the radio and it made a lot of sense. The All-Pro gunslinger explained that how can you say somebody is overrated when they were never drafted, if anything Romo is underrated.

Romo’s heat has come in the playoffs and his quarterback opponent this week, Ryan, is starting to feel the sizzle too. Neither of the two has come up clutch in the postseason and that’s the biggest argument about Atlanta.

The two quarterbacks could have an easier time this Sunday as they face banged-up defensive units. The Cowboys lost their general on defense in linebacker Sean Lee (toe) two weeks ago and the same can now be said for Atlanta. The Falcons’ leading tackler, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (ankle) will miss Sunday’s game plus defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux (knee) is ‘questionable.’

The last two games played on SNF have stayed ‘under’ the total but this matchup has potential to be a shootout. The number opened at 47 ½ and has held steady. Atlanta has scored 28, 30 and 23 at home this season but its stout defense has helped the ‘under’ produce a 2-1 mark. The Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 on the road.

As always, kickoff for the primetime battle starts at 8:25 p.m. ET and NBC will provide national coverage.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

Week 9 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NFC has had its way with the AFC this season, taking 20 of 32 meetings. However, the NFC owns a barely profitable 17-15 ATS record in interconference action, which includes a dreadful 0-4 ATS mark in Week 8. Four interconference matchups take place in Week 9, as the two early kickoffs feature NFC North squads heading to AFC South sites in the role of road favorites.

Bears (-3½, 43½) at Titans

The Bears have failed to cover in each of the last two home wins over the Lions and Panthers, as Chicago hits the highway looking for its sixth consecutive victory. Lovie Smith's club squeaked by Carolina last Sunday, 23-22, but couldn't cash as 8½-point favorites. Chicago makes its third-ever trip to Tennessee on Sunday, taking on a Titans' squad that had its modest two-game winning streak snapped by the Colts in an overtime setback last Sunday.

Tennessee's defense showed signs of improvement despite its loss to Indianapolis, allowing just six points in the first 57 minutes of regulation. The Colts tied the game with three minutes remaining, while Andrew Luck's touchdown pass in overtime gave the Titans their first loss this season as a favorite. The Titans have split a pair of games against NFC North foes, including a Week 3 overtime triumph as home 'dogs against the Lions, 44-41.

Chicago keeps delivering defensively by returning six interceptions for scores this season, resulting in a 3-1 'over' record when it picks up a defensive touchdown. The lone loss for the Bears this season came on the highway at Green Bay in Week 2, but Chicago outscored Dallas and Jacksonville by a combined 75-21 in two road victories.

Lions (-4½, 44) at Jaguars

Jacksonville returns home after covering in losses at Oakland and Green Bay as underdogs, welcoming in a Detroit squad that is desperate to return to the .500 mark. The Lions are riding three consecutive covers after escaping the Seahawks in the final minute last Sunday, 28-24 as 2½-point favorites. That victory was just the first in the favorite role in four tries for the Lions, but now Jim Schwartz's team has to jump the road 'chalk' hurdle this week.

The last time the Lions laid points on the road, Detroit was shocked at Tennessee in overtime, while allowing five touchdowns of 60 yards or more. The Lions aren't exactly the best bet in the NFL away from Ford Field, posting a 5-8 ATS record on the highway since the start of 2011. In seven road games against AFC opponents in Schwartz's tenure, the Lions have hit the 'over' five times, including four consecutive contests.

The Jaguars don't have much to be proud of this season, while losing all three home games by at least 17 points to the Texans, Bengals, and Bears. Maurice Jones-Drew will miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury, as Jacksonville has tallied just 20 points at home this season. Jacksonville will try to turn around its luck against NFC opponents, losing eight of its last nine in interconference action since 2010 (4-5 ATS).

Buccaneers at Raiders (-1½, 46½)

This isn't exactly the second coming of Super Bowl XXXVII, when Tampa Bay dominated Oakland, 48-21. Both these teams enter Sunday's contest with identical 3-4 records and road victories last week. The Bucs put together their most complete performance of the season, routing the Vikings as 5½-point road 'dogs, 36-17 last Thursday. Tampa Bay is the one of the most effective teams against the number in 2012, as Greg Schiano's club has cashed five of seven games.

The Bucs own a perfect 3-0 ATS record away from Raymond James Stadium, but all three of those covers came when receiving at least 5  points. Josh Freeman has helped lead this Tampa Bay offense to plenty of points recently, cashing the 'over' in four consecutive contests. Interestingly enough, the two games that the Bucs failed to cash came with the pointspread at two points or less.

The Silver and Black goes for its first three-game winning streak since last November, as Oakland defeated two of the AFC's lackeys in Jacksonville and Kansas City the previous two weeks. The Raiders haven't broken through for bettors as a favorite, posting an 0-3 ATS record as home 'chalk.' The last time these two teams met came in the final week of 2008, as the Raiders upset the Bucs, 31-24 as 11-point underdogs to knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs.

Steelers at Giants (-3½, 47½)

Due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, Pittsburgh won't travel to New Jersey until Sunday morning with the lack of hotel availability in the area. The Steelers seek their third consecutive victory after putting together their most convincing performance of the season against the Redskins last Sunday, 27-12 as 4 ½-point favorites. The schedule is setting up nicely for Pittsburgh moving forward, but this will be no walk in the park on Sunday.

The Giants squandered a 23-20 lead against the Cowboys last week, but New York found a way to avenge an opening week loss and beat Dallas, 29-24. Tom Coughlin's club is a perfect 5-0 against teams outside the NFC East this season, but the Giants have been pushed to the limit in all four home contests. New York trailed by double-digits before rallying past Tampa Bay and Cleveland, while needing a touchdown in the final minutes to stun Washington two weeks ago.

The Steelers have struggled in Mike Tomlin's tenure as a road underdog, posting a 4-10 ATS record since 2007. One of those losses came in the opening week at Denver, while gong 1-3 ATS as a road 'dog against NFC opponents the last five years. The defense is still holding up without safety Troy Polamalu, holding four of the previous six opponents to 17 points or less.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 9

Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 8 Recap

Once again, gamblers saw a nice balance with totals last. In the 14 games, the ‘over’ went 8-6 and on the season the ‘over’ is 60-57-1 and that doesn’t include Thursday’s outcome between the Chargers and Chiefs. For those of you who had the ‘under’ in that affair, our sincere apologies go out to you. San Diego led 10-6 heading into the fourth quarter before outscoring the Chiefs 21-7 in the final 15 minutes. The Chargers were aided with two defensive scores in the fourth quarter, pushing their season total to four touchdowns from the defensive unit.

Surprised? You really shouldn’t be because these second-half outbursts, in particular fourth quarter explosions, have been a reoccurring theme this season. Through eight weeks, there have been 60 defensive or special teams touchdowns. If the pace continues, we’ll see close to 130 touchdowns from those units scored. To put things in perspective, there were only 113 TDs scored from those units during the 2011 regular season.

Nelly!

In last week’s piece, we talked about VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson and his amazing run (76%, +2,437) in pro football this season. I’ve been with VI nine years and I’ve seen both good and bad ‘cappers – we don’t hide records! Joe’s got a great pulse on the league, especially with totals (13-3, 81%). We asked Joe what his secret was and he offered up some solid handicapping thoughts.

He explained, “The schedule certainly dictates a lot of my interest in certain totals. There often is an overreaction to short term results in the NFL, for example if a team has played a couple of high-scoring games against marginal defenses and then will face off against a very good defense there can be an opportunity.”

“It is also very important to take a close look at how the scoring has occurred in recent games. Is the team putting together consistent sustained drives or have they caught some breaks with turnovers or hit a few big plays that are not as likely to reoccur?”
   
“Before the season I definitely keyed in on a few teams that I felt would be good 'over' teams and a few that would be good 'under' teams early in the year but it is certainly not an automatic play each week. For example Baltimore was a team I felt would be a good 'over' bet as the defense seemed to be deteriorating despite. Sometimes those early season notions can be dead wrong and adjustments have to be made. I actually liked Jacksonville to be an 'over' team early in the season this year based on value that would be there from the low numbers the Jaguars had last season. And the preseason results showed much more passing but it became pretty clear they just don't have the personnel to put together consistent drives on offense.”

“I don't pay too much attention to total streaks other than understanding how a streak might impact a number being shaded and subsequently bet one way or another. Total streaks certainly get less attention than win/loss streaks but it only takes a few high-scoring or low-scoring games in a row to see some adjustments in the numbers. It is important to be aware of key numbers but for me a total rising above or below a key number will not automatically trigger a play. I think the core handicapping of the matchup is more important than the number.”

Rematch

Since the NFL has stacked the schedule with divisional matchups in the later part of the season, it’s rare that you see teams finishing off their two-game sets this early. So far this season, there have been three divisional rematches and all three have gone ‘over’ in the second go ‘round, two of them cashing last week and the other being played just this past Thursday.

Week 8 – N.Y. Giants 29 Dallas 24 (OVER 48)
Week 8 – Miami 30 N.Y. Jets 9 (OVER 38½)
Week 9 – San Diego 31 Kansas City 13 (OVER 41)

On Sunday, Baltimore and Cleveland will meet for the second and final time. In Week 4, the Ravens beat the Browns 23-16 in a Thursday Night affair and the combined 39 points went ‘under’ the closing total of 43½. Just looking at the numbers that the oddsmakers posted, it’s very clear that both teams don’t have good defensive units. This week’s total opened at 42½ and has held steady at most shops.

Baltimore has won nine straight in this series and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3 (67%) during this span. When these two franchises clash, a total in the forties is very uncommon, something that’s happened three times in the last 20 instances which includes this year’s first encounter.

So do you stick with the trend and go ‘under’ or respect the oddsmakers’ ratings and go ‘over.’ Neither team has a very good defense, which always bodes well for high-scoring affairs. However, can Cleveland’s inconsistent offense do enough for this number? Baltimore is off the bye and at the very least, should be prepared for this battle. Also, remember what Joe Nelson said about the Ravens’ defense (see above).

Line Moves

The smart money went 1-2 with their total moves in Week 8. We published the piece on Friday but there were also some late moves on Sunday, clearly related to weather. The Steelers-Redskins, Dolphins-Jets and Chargers-Browns all got steamed down and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games, plus the Miami-New York (30-9) matchup was a possible middle for some players who took ‘under’ 40 during the week and ‘over’ 38½ before kickoff.

Here are the early moves at CRIS:

Carolina at Washington: Line opened at 46 and jumped to 48
Tampa Bay at Oakland: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ continues to be a money-maker in these primetime games, despite the aforementioned Thursday outcome between the Chiefs and Chargers. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 17-9 (65%) but this week’s SNF and MNF battles do have potential to see some points posted. The two games will be played indoors as the Falcons host the Cowboys and the Saints welcome the Eagles.

Fearless Predictions

Despite having some confidence, we came up short last week and lost 20 cents ($20) as the Best Bets went 1-1. The Team Total setback was offset with another Three-Team teaser winner. On the season, we’re up three bucks ($300) and looking to produce more profits in Week 9. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Carolina-Washington 48

Best Under: Miami-Indianapolis 43

Best Team Total: Under 21 Seattle

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Carolina-Washington
Over 43 Philadelphia-New Orleans
Under 47 Minnesota-Seattle

Blade
useravatar
Online
208126 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44343
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
275509
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.3
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3459
Newest User:
Johnny Galloway
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2054

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com