College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 10/26

College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 10/26

CINCINNATI (5 - 1) at LOUISVILLE (7 - 0) - 10/26/2012, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEVADA (6 - 2) at AIR FORCE (4 - 3) - 10/26/2012, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Nevada is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Nevada is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Air Force is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Air Force is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Louisville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Louisville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Cincinnati at Louisville
Cincinnati: 15-5 ATS away off a home loss
Louisville: 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams

Nevada at Air Force
Nevada: 19-8 Over in road games after 1 or more losses
Air Force: 2-9 ATS in home games

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 10/26

Cincinnati at Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know

Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals (-3, 52)

Louisville has a great chance to remain undefeated until its regular-season finale if it simply wins the games it should win, but the No. 14 Cardinals'  toughest test of the season until then awaits Friday when they host Cincinnati in the 52nd “Battle for the Keg of Nails.”

All but one of Louisville’s victories has come against teams under .500 and the only other opponent left on its schedule after the Bearcats that owns a winning record is No. 15 Rutgers – another of the 11 remaining unbeaten FBS teams. In order to hold up their end of a potential showdown of undefeated teams on Nov. 29, the Cardinals will need to play better than they did in last Saturday’s 27-25 home victory over two-win South Florida. Cincinnati suffered its first setback last weekend despite not allowing an offensive touchdown in a 29-23 loss at Toledo.

LINE: Louisville opened as big as -4 and has been bet down to a field-goal favorite. The total has come down from 53 to 52 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 68 percent chance of rain in Louisville with temperatures in the low 50s. Winds are expected to blow north at 8 mph.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (5-1, 1-0 Big East, 3-2 ATS): The Bearcats have eclipsed 425 yards of total offense in every game this season and enter this contest averaging a Big East-best 467.5 yards. Much of the credit for that mark goes to the conference’s best rushing attack that has generated at least 200 yards in all but one game and 250 yards four times. Running back Ralph Abernathy (6.6), running back George Winn (6.3) and quarterback Munchie Legaux (6.0) lead the conference in yards per carry. Winn also ranks second in the Big East with 607 rushing yards.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-0, 2-0, 3-4 ATS):
A successful ground game will be important to protect a Cardinals' defense that has surrendered a conference-high 14 touchdown passes. Louisville, which ranks second in the conference in rushing, will undoubtedly try to enjoy the same success on the ground against Cincinnati that Toledo did when it gashed the Big East’s second-ranked rush defense for 229 yards. However, the Cardinals can also lean on quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who leads the conference in passer rating (165.2) and ranks third in the nation in completion percentage (73.4).


* Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Louisville.
* Favorite is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.


1. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 29-21-1 and has claimed each of the last four meetings.

2. The Cardinals are 4-0 in games decided by less than seven points.

3. The Bearcats have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against ranked conference opponents, including their last five away from home.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 10/26

Nevada at Air Force: 7 Things You Should Know

Nevada at Air Force (3.5, 66)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the south.

1. Air Force attempts an average of 10.5 passes per game and 352.7 rushing yards per game (second in the nation). But leading rusher Cody Getz (928 yards, eight TDs) is expected to miss the game with an ankle injury.

2. The Nevada Wolf Pack are a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and are averaging 44.0 points per game over those four contests.

3. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and have played under the total in their last four October contests.

4. Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson is the leading rusher in the nation at 156 yards a game. Air Force allowed Kasey Carrier of New Mexico to rack up a Mountain-West record 338 yards on the ground against them last week. The Falcons allow 222 rushing yards per game, the 13th-worst mark in the nation.

5. “There’s no doubt that Nevada is the most athletic team we’ve played so far this season, even more so than when we went up to Ann Arbor and played Michigan,” Falcons coach Troy Calhoun said Wednesday about the Wolf Pack offense.

6. The Wolf Pack has failed to cover the spread in its last four games overall and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.

7. Nevada allowed just 102 first-half yards before giving up 247 yards and 33 points in the second half of its loss to SDSU last week.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 10/26

NCAAF Week 9

Cincinnati won last four games with Louisville, winning 35-27/28-20 in last two visits here, but Bearcats lost first game last week, getting upset in Toledo in first true road game, despite outgaining Rockets of MAC by 123 yards. Cincy is 2-5 as road underdog under Jones. Louisville is 7-0, with three wins by 5 or less points, and North Carolina is only winning team they've played; Cardinals are 9-14 in last 23 gamea as home faves, 6-7 under Strong, 2-1 this season. Favorites are 11-4 vs spread in last 15 series games. Big East home favorites are 4-4 vs spread.

Lot of close games for Air Force; five of its six games vs I-A opponents were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; they're 4-1 as home underdog under Calhoun, covering in only game as dog this season, losing 31-25 at Michigan (+21). Last week, Nevada became first team in 21 years that lost after leading San Diego State by 10+ points in 4th quarter; they are 3-1 on road, but had to rally back from down 31-14 at half to win its last road game, at lowly UNLV. Nationwide, home underdogs are 40-45 vs spread in conference games, 4-2 in MWC play.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 10/26

Cincinnati at Louisville
By Brian Edwards

This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights has us in the Big East again with two contenders colliding at Papa John’s Stadium in the Bluegrass State, where Louisville will put its unbeaten record on the line against Cincinnati.

As of early this morning, most books were listing Louisville (7-0 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 52½. Gamblers can take the Bearcats on the money line for a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145).

Louisville is led by sophomore quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who has completed 73.4 percent of his passes for 1,694 yards with an 11/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senorise Perry and Jeremy Wright have combined to rush for 1,065 yards and 17 TDs.

Bridgewater spreads the wealth around, evidenced by nine players with nine receptions or more. His 11 scoring strikes have gone to eight different teammates. DeVante Parker has 16 catches for a team-high 337 yards.
Charlie Strong’s third team at U of L had to rally late in the fourth quarter to slip past South Florida 27-25 as a six-point home ‘chalk.’ Bridgewater was the catalyst, connecting on 21-of-25 passes for 256 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran 10 times for 74 yards.

USF trailed 21-10 before B.J. Daniels threw a pair of fourth-quarter TD passes to put the Bulls up 25-21 with 3:09 remaining. But Bridgewater answered with an 11-yard scoring strike to Eli Rogers with 1:35 left. The Bulls got to midfield on their final drive, but the Cardinals defense would not allow them into field-goal range.

U of L scores 32.4 points per game and gives up 21.2 PPG. The Cardinals are 2-2 ATS in their four home wins.

Cincinnati (5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) won its first five games before losing a 29-23 decision at Toledo last week. The Bearcats went down at The Glass Bowl as 5 ½-point road favorites.

Cincy out-gained the Rockets 478-355 in the yardage department, but it couldn’t overcome a 91-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 75-yard pick-six. Junior quarterback Munchie Legaux completed only 15-of-36 passes for 227 yards with one touchdown pass and two interceptions.

Legaux has had accuracy issues, completing only 53.5 percent of his passes. He has thrown for 1,435 yards with a 12/5 TD-INT ratio. He can also make plays with his legs, rushing for 264 yards and three TDs, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.

George Winn has not allowed the departure of Pead to hurt the Bearcats. Winn has rushed for 607 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.3 YPC.

Cincinnati will be without starting senior DE Walter Stewart, who is out indefinitely with an upper body injury. Also, CB Chris Williams is ‘questionable’ with a head injury.

Louisville starting senior LB Daniel Brown remains ‘out’ with a lower body injury.

Cincy has won four consecutive head-to-head meetings, covering the spread at a 3-1 clip. In last year’s encounter, Butch Jones’s team won by a 25-16 count but the Cardinals hooked up their backers as 13-point underdogs. Zach Collaros and Isaiah Pead led the Bearcats to the victory. Bridgewater completed 17-of-28 throws for 195 yards and one interception.

Totals have been an overall wash for both U of L and Cincy, going 3-3 and 2-2, respectively. The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their home games, while the Bearcats have watched the ‘under’ connect in their lone road assignment last week.

The 52nd battle for the Keg of Nails is scheduled for an 8:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Air Force will play host to Nevada tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network. The Wolf Pack has been installed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 66 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Falcons are plus-155 to win outright (risk $100 to win $155).

Texas A&M opened as an 8½-point favorite at Auburn, but the line moved to double digits within five minutes. By Monday morning, the Aggies were 14-point ‘chalk’ for their trip to The Plains. As of early this morning, Kevin Sumlin’s squad was favored by 15.

Alabama is an enormous 24-point home favorite Saturday vs. Mississippi St. The Bulldogs are 3-5 against the spread as double-digit underdogs during Dan Mullen’s four-year tenure.

Auburn senior tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen is out for the rest of the season due to a hip injury. Due to abysmal quarterback play, Lutzenkirchen hasn’t been a big factor this year but that’s not on him. He enjoyed an outstanding career and had seven touchdown receptions in 2011.

Florida St. senior RB Chris Thompson is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL in the second quarter of a 33-20 win at Miami. Thompson rushed for 687 yards and five TDs this year, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

Missouri quarterback James Franklin is ‘doubtful’ Saturday vs. Kentucky due to a knee injury. The Tigers, who are still seeking their first SEC victory, are favored by 13 ½ at most spots.

Maryland QB Perry Hills is out for the season with a torn ACL. He had an 8/7 TD-INT ratio.

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