U.S. Open Picks: Day 12 Odds and Matchup Analysis

U.S. Open Picks: Day 12 Odds and Matchup Analysis

U.S. Open Picks: Day 12 Odds and Matchup Analysis
By Ricky Dimon

RAFAEL NADAL VS. ANDY RODDICK (OVER/UNDER 3.5 SETS)

Both Nadal and Roddick and are in fine form and the result should be a blockbuster U.S. Open quarterfinal on Friday afternoon. Roddick, who picked up some much-needed confidence by reaching the Winston-Salem semifinals two weeks ago, was the beneficiary of a good draw in rounds one through three in Flushing Meadows. On Thursday, though, he ran into world No. 5 David Ferrer and took out the Spaniard in four sets.

Going up against Nadal is a tougher proposition, but it is also a similar one. Nadal and Ferrer have the same playing style (baseline counter-punchers who defend extremely well, albeit with opposite hands) and Roddick should be well prepared. The American broke Ferrer four times; one break in any set could be enough against Nadal, based on the strength of Roddick’s serve. Past history points to a competitive showdown. Nadal leads the series 6-3 but they're tied 3-3 on hard courts. They split their two most recent meetings (Miami and London in 2010), and both went to three sets.

Pick: Over (-150)

ANDY MURRAY VS. JOHN ISNER (OVER/UNDER 36.5 GAMES)

With Isner involved, this is going way over 36.5 games if it goes past three sets. Even if it ends in straights, it has a decent chance of exceeding 36.5. That’s simply what happens when Isner is part of the proceedings. Although the 6-foot-9 American’s previous match with Gilles Simon was a little bit out of the ordinary (nine service breaks), he is arguably the toughest player to break and he rarely breaks serve himself.

Murray is a heavy favorite to win. He won their only previous encounter in straight sets at the 2010 Australian Open, but this is a different Isner now. Up to No. 22 in the world, Isner is 16-4 on hard courts this summer, with a title in Winston-Salem and now his first slam quarterfinal appearance. If the underdog manages to keep this close, Murray could be in trouble. Isner is 6-0 in tiebreakers so far this tournament and he has won 13 of his last 14 tiebreakers at the U.S. Open dating back to 2009.

Pick: OVER 36.5 (-115)

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