NBA News and Notes Thursday 12/31

NBA News and Notes Thursday 12/31

Thursday's Best NBA Bets

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-7.5, 195)


The Heat should be thankful they’re not home for New Year’s. With all the parties, after parties and after-after parties happening on South Beach, it would be a wonder if anyone showed up for the game.

But they’re not in Miami, they’re in San Antonio.

Heading into Wednesday’s game against the New Orleans Hornets, the Heat have won five of their last six games and are picking up steam in the Southeast Division. During that span head coach Erik Spoelstra has shared the love at point guard, splitting time between Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo.

The juggling seems to be paying off. Miami will counter San Antonio’s All-Star point guard Tony Parker with its two-pronged attack, trying to wear down the scrappy slasher with fresh bodies.

"Much has been made of big-ticket, All-Star-level point guards,'' Spoelstra told the Miami Herald. ''We have a two-headed point guard, and they've been playing very effectively for us.

"It's been a good formula, and so we'll just continue with it like that.''

That also leaves shooting guard Dwyane Wade free to move with the ball and create. He’s thrived with Chalmers and Arroyo handling the ball, averaging 28 points during the team’s three-game win streak.

Pick: Heat

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls (-3.5, 184)

The Pistons blamed their early-season swoon on injuries. But now that Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince have returned, the team had no idea how to play - or more importantly - win with each other.

Detroit has lost eight straight games heading into Thursday. The most recent defeat came at the hands of the New York Knicks, who shot 51 percent from the field and limited the Pistons to just 42 percent shooting in a 104-87 beating Tuesday night.

"We have a lot of basketball left, but we have to take advantage of all these opportunities," Pistons coach John Kuester told the media. "Getting people back does not mean that you forget what gets you in a position to win, and that's effort, your energy, your understanding of your game plan. We didn't successfully do that consistently."

Prince has struggled to contribute on offense, scoring a total of 11 points in his two games since returning from an abdominal injury. Fellow forward Charlie Villanueva has also struggled since the return of the stars. He bookended an eight-point performance with two goose eggs against the Knicks and Raptors while dealing with foot issues and illness.

"It's still going to take time," Hamilton told reporters of the transition in the lineup. "It's not something that we expect to happen overnight. That just doesn't happen, especially with me and Tayshaun being out as many games as we've been and (Gordon) being out as many games as he's been out.

"It's going to take time. The one thing we want to do is just stay positive with it, stay confident with it, and hopefully, it will turn around."

Pick: Bulls

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Re: NBA News and Notes Thursday 12/31

Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons

The fans at The Palace of Auburn Hills will be treated to a game between the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons when they take their seats on Thursday.

Derrick Rose netted 28 points and dished out six assists to lead the Bulls over the Pacers 104-95 on Tuesday night.

Chicago covered as 7-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 194-point total set by oddsmakers.

Ben Gordon drained 17 points off the bench for Detroit in its 104-87 loss to New York on Tuesday night.

New York cashed as 5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 194-point total set by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
Chicago has won 2 straight games.
Detroit has lost 8 straight games.

Team records:
Chicago: 12-17 SU, 10-17-2 ATS
Detroit: 11-20 SU, 14-16-1 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing Orlando are 4-6
After playing Indiana are 6-4
After a win are 5-5

Detroit most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Dallas are 6-4
After playing New York are 7-3
After a loss are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Chicago

Next up:
Chicago home to Orlando, Saturday, January 2
Detroit at Dallas, Tuesday, January 5


Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets

If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Thursday when the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets meet at Toyota Center.

The Mavericks defeated Denver 104-96 as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (207).

Drew Gooden scored 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for Dallas, while Josh Howard added 17 points in the win.

Aaron Brooks dropped 27 points to lead the Rockets past the Hornets 108-100 on Tuesday night.

Houston covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 193-point total set by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
Dallas has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Dallas: 22-9 SU, 16-15 ATS
Houston: 19-13 SU, 19-13 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Sacramento are 3-7
After playing Denver are 3-7
After a win are 6-4

Houston most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing New Orleans are 5-5
After playing New Orleans are 8-2
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Dallas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Dallas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

Next up:
Dallas at Sacramento, Saturday, January 2
Houston at New Orleans, Saturday, January 2


Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs

The Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at AT&T Center.

The Heat were scorched 95-91 by the Hornets last time out, as 1.5-point favorites. That game's 186 points went UNDER the posted total of 192.

Dwyane Wade collected 22 points and dished out six assists in the loss.

Richard Jefferson had 24 points and six rebounds, as the Spurs coasted over the Timberwolves 117-99 on Tuesday night.

San Antonio covered as 11-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 198-point total set by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
San Antonio has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Miami: 16-13 SU, 15-14 ATS
San Antonio: 18-11 SU, 15-13-1 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing Charlotte are 4-6
After playing New Orleans are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5

San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 7-3
Before playing Washington are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 6-4
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Miami
San Antonio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
San Antonio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Next up:
Miami home to Charlotte, Saturday, January 2
San Antonio at Washington, Saturday, January 2


Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Utah Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Ford Center.

Five players reached double figures as the Jazz toppled the Timberwolves 107-103 on Wednesday. The Jazz failed to cover the 7.5-point spread, while the combined 210 points made it OVER the night's posted total of 202.

Deron Williams had 21 points and dished out 12 assists for the Jazz. Carlos Boozer netted a double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds in that win.

Kevin Durant scored 35 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to lead the Thunder past the Wizards 110-98 on Tuesday night.

Oklahoma City covered as 1-point road favorites, while the game played OVER the 204-point total posted by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
Utah has won 2 straight games.
Oklahoma City has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Utah: 18-13 SU, 17-14 ATS
Oklahoma City: 17-14 SU, 20-11 ATS

Utah most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Denver are 4-6
After playing Minnesota are 9-1
After a win are 5-5

Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Milwaukee are 7-3
After playing Washington are 4-6
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Utah is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Utah is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games when playing Utah

Next up:
Utah home to Denver, Saturday, January 2
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee, Saturday, January 2


Philadelphia 76ers vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Clippers will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at STAPLES Center.

The 76ers dominated in the fourth quarter as they upset the Kings 116-106 on Wednesday, as 2.5-point underdogs. The 222 points sailed OVER the posted total of 205.5.

Andre Iguodala netted 19 points with seven rebounds and nine assists for the 76ers. Louis Williams had 22 points and Allen Iverson chipped in with 20 in the win.

The Clippers were defeated 103-99 by the Trail Blazers last time out, as 6.5-point underdogs. The game's 202 points made it OVER the posted total of 190.

Chris Kaman tossed in 25 points for the Clippers, while Eric Gordon had 24 points in a losing effort.

Current streak:
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 9-22 SU, 13-18 ATS
Los Angeles: 13-18 SU, 12-19 ATS

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Denver are 2-8
After playing Sacramento are 5-5
After a win are 2-8

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Portland are 4-6
After playing Portland are 3-7
After a loss are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Philadelphia is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the LA Clippers last 11 games at home
LA Clippers are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
LA Clippers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

Next up:
Philadelphia at Denver, Sunday, January 3
LA Clippers home to Portland, Monday, January 4

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Re: NBA News and Notes Thursday 12/31

NBA RoundUp For 12/31
By Dan Bebe

Bulls @ Pistons - Pistons by 3.5 with a total of 183. Wow, that is a low, low total, and also, the Pistons and Bulls are being ranked as basically even, and I'm not sure I agree, at least not while Detroit continues to be shorthanded. The Bulls have looked serviceable since Tyrus Thomas returned and since Kirk Hinrich was inserted into the starting lineup, but all of those marginal performances have come at home, where the Bulls are a respectable 10-6. They are 2-11 on the road, though they played 24 outstanding minutes and 24 horrid minutes in their only recent road game in New York. I think we may see a decent game out of Chicago here -- they've been playing much better offensively, and the defense, which was already (we'll call it) "okay" has remained just that, okay. I've been extremely disappointed in the Pistons, but this team is going to have a TON of value as soon as Hamilton, Gordon, Villanueva, Bynum all get their legs back and develop some chemistry with the masking tape and cardboard players that have been holding this raft together in their absence. For now, though, I simply cannot advocate backing this team until we see them turn the corner. Unfortunately, it's tough to know when that's going to happen, and that makes backing Chicago a little scary, since Detroit could "figure it out" any day now. Also, the Pistons don't play again for 5 days, so they might either mail it in or really try to crank out a top-level performance. I think perhaps the value here might be in the total, and I get the feeling that this total is THIS low for a reason. I'm expecting a final score pretty darn close to 183, and I lean slightly to the Under, as I'm looking for a 90-86 victory for the Bulls.

Heat @ Spurs - San Antonio by 7.5 with a total of 195. Tough spot for Miami, rolling into San Antonio fresh off a loss (and failed cover) against the Hornets last night, and when teams go into these back-to-backs in New Orleans/San Antonio/Dallas/Houston or some combination thereof, you can usually get a good idea of how things are going to go by watching the first game of the two. Very, very rarely does a team somehow pull things together in between games and post a monster performance in the second game. That being said, the Heat have been trying to win with defense again, and that is certainly the only chance they've got against the extremely dangerous Spurs. San Antonio is 13-5 at home, they have won 3 straight games (covering all 3), and have achieved victory in 9 of their last 11 contests. This is a team that is getting healthy, especially Manu Ginobili, and his change from 75% to 95% strength is enough to turn San Antonio from a good team to a great one. I don't think Miami has the firepower to keep this one close, and I lean San Antonio to capitalize on the Heat's fatigue for a double-digit win. I also think that Miami suffers on defense first, and I think the Spurs break 100, but I'm just not sure how many points the Heat can put up. I believe 195 is pretty sharp on the total, so more leans to come on this one tomorrow.

Mavericks @ Rockets - Houston getting a point at home with a total of 197. This is already the 4th meeting for these teams, and we're not even in 2010. Dallas won the first two battles, shooting 55% and 65% in those two games. Houston won the 3rd game, holding Dallas to 42% shooting from the field, but still needed overtime to come away with the win. Easily the most interesting note on these games is that ALL THREE have sailed way over the total. 224, 229, 224 are the three totals we've seen so far (of course there was one OT period involved), but these are outrageously high-scoring games, especially for the half-court offense of the Mavs. And yet, here we are, presented with a 197 posted total? You guys know damn well which way I lean on that one. Oddsmakers didn't set this number 20 points lower than the previous meetings without a reason, and that reason is that Dallas is getting healthy bodies back, and they should be able to do a much better job defensively on Houston in this one than last time, and I think Houston is going to really focus on keeping the Mavs from knocking down shots at 50% or higher, so both teams should have an eye on defense first. I also like the fact that this game is basically a pick despite the Mavs being in position to win all 3 games, and settling for a 2-1 mark. I like Houston to win a real battle.

Jazz @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 3 with a total of 198. How about those Thunder? They just keep rolling, now returning home after a short 2-games-in-2-nights road trip through Jersey and Washington. The Thunder won both of those games, covering both, and this team has now won 4 straight games SU and covered 5 in a row. This is right on that cusp, though, where a team's value is dropping precipitously, but it might be too early to fade a team on a winning streak. The Jazz are coming off a win in Minnesota, avenging two earlier losses to the Wolves, but still a game where Utah had to hold off the Timbercreatures until the bitter end. Utah is liable to be a little tired in this one, and the Thunder are really playing incredibly on the offensive end, averaging almost 108 points over those 5 covers. They are allowing around 100 ppg, as well, but when you're as white-hot as Kevin Durant has been, it almost doesn't matter how well the opponent shoots when you can just roll down the floor and jam. Here, they get a team that may be a little jet-lagged, and it takes an awful lot of energy to defend the various athletic weapons the Thunder can throw at you. I think Durant, Harden and Green have huge advantages over their 2/3 counterparts on the Jazz, but I also think that Boozer should be able to put up a pretty big game. The huge key here is whether or not Russell Westbrook can use some of his strength to slow down Deron Williams. There's certainly no stopping Deron, but even forcing him to work a little harder should be enough to secure a Thunder victory, and the fatigue factor should severely limit the Jazz's ability to crash the boards and exploit the Thunder's weakest spot, which is stopping the "stockier" big men from grabbing offensive boards. Brendan Haywood almost singlehandedly got the Wizards back into that last game. I lean to the home team. I also like the Over here, given Oklahoma's suddenly up-tempo offense and their ability to get open shots earlier in the shot-clock.

Sixers @ Clippers - Clipshow by 2.5 with a total of 196.5. I can't believe I'm saying this, but this game might actually be interesting. Both teams are coming off covers in last night's games, though the Sixers pulled off the upset win in Sacramento, and the Clippers merely didn't lose by much for a Bebe-victory, and a Clippers SU loss. Still, both of these teams are playing, probably, their best basketball of the season, and that's what makes this game so much fun. The Sixers are just destroying over the course of the game, starting slow, but flexing their bench depth in the 2nd and 4th quarters in big wins against both Portland and then Sactown. The Clippers are just starting to play better with the pieces that were already there, but still don't have the fluidity that needs to come with a good team. They outplayed Portland last night -- I watched the game -- they drove the ball harder to the rim, protected their own basket better, but just couldn't hit the big shots, and missed far too many free throws as the Blazers managed to squeeze out a home win. I'm not sure the Clippers should be getting the full home-court advantage in this one, as they are not much better in LA than on the road (in fact, they're basically the same after calculating tonight's game in there). The Clippers are 5-10-1 ATS at home, 7-8 on the road, so not great at either location, but certainly a better bet away. Philly is in almost the same boat: they are actually almost 3 points better on the road than at home, and are 2-12 ATS at home, 10-6 on the road! You want to talk about insanity, there it is right there. This is a huge opportunity for the Sixers to take some great feelings into the new year, and I believe they have the advantage not only in momentum but on the floor. The Sixers depth is better than the Clippers, Elton Brand, Sam Dalembert and Mareese Speights can do a decent job on Chris Kaman, and if Philly can slow down Eric Gordon from the perimeter, I think the Clippers are in trouble. I lean Philly, and I lean Over, as the Clippers managed to push a 202 total across against the defensive-minded Blazers, and now get a lower number against the suddenly attack-minded Sixers.

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Re: NBA News and Notes Thursday 12/31

Dallas (22-9, 16-15 ATS) at Houston (19-13 SU and ATS)

The Mavericks and Rockets meet for the fourth time in six weeks – and the final time in the regular season – with Houston hosting this Southwest Division clash at the Toyota Center.

Dallas kicked off a four-game Western Conference road swing with Sunday’s impressive 104-96 upset victory at Denver, cashing as a 5½-point road underdog. The Mavericks have won eight of 10, including a 3-0 SU and ATS roll on the road, but overall they’ve cashed just five times in their last 15 games. Dallas has reached triple digits in five of its last six contests, winning four of those five games.

The Mavs have enjoyed a lot of success as a visitor this season, going 11-4 SU and ATS on foreign courts, with the winner covering the spread in all 15 games. The team’s 11-4 ATS mark on the highway is in stark contrast to its 5-11 ATS home record.

Houston rebounded from Sunday’s 108-83 loss at Cleveland with Tuesday’s 108-100 home victory over New Orleans, barely getting the cash as a six-point favorite to end an 0-3 ATS slide. Although the Rockets have alternated SU wins in their last five games, they’re 11-5 and 10-6 ATS in their last 16 contests, peeling off five straight home wins and covers during this stretch. The SU winner is 11-2 ATS in Houston’s last 13 games overall and 11-2 ATS in its 13 home affairs.

Dallas thumped the Rockets in the first two meetings this year, cruising 121-103 as a 6½-point home favorite on Nov. 10 and 130-99 as a four-point road underdog 15 days later. However, the Rockets put themselves in position to earn a season-series split with a 116-108 overtime upset win in Dallas as a 5½-point pup on Dec. 18.

The Mavs are still 13-5 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head battles with the Rockets and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Houston. Also, the ‘dog has gotten the cash in eight of the past 10 meetings (with the visitor going 7-3 SU and ATS during this span).

Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games, but otherwise Rick Carlisle’s squad is in pointspread ruts of 2-6 against Western Conference opponents, 0-4 versus divisional foes, 6-21 on Thursday, 0-5 after a non-cover and 0-5 when coming off three or more days of rest. Moreover, the underdog has cashed in five straight Mavs games and is 10-2 ATS in the last 12.

In addition to its 5-0 ATS run at the Toyota Center, Houston is on pointspread surges of 4-0 against the Western Conference, 29-10-3 on Thursday and 6-1 after one day of rest.

Dallas has topped the total in seven of its past 10 on the highway, but otherwise the Mavericks are on “under” runs of 6-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 after a SU win and 6-0 on Thursday. The Rockets are riding “under” streaks of 12-5 overall, 9-4 against Southwest Division rivals, 4-1 on Thursday and 8-2 after a SU victory. Finally, the under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams in Houston, though this year’s first clash at the Toyota Center easily went over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER

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Re: NBA News and Notes Thursday 12/31

Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer

76ers at Clippers -
The Sixers are 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since March 29, 2000 as a road dog when they won as an underdog in each of their last two games. The Sixers are 6-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since December 10, 2007 as a dog after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since December 17, 2006 at home after a road loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

Bulls at Pistons - The Bulls are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since May 03, 1999 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. The Bulls are 0-9 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since December 03, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 23, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Pistons are 0-10 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since February 01, 2009 after a game at home in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Pistons are 0-7 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since February 27, 1998 at home when they have a non-conference revenge game on the road next.

Mavericks at Rockets - The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since April 06, 2007 on the road with 2+ days rest after a road game. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since February 24, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since April 12, 2006 as a road favorite when facing a team they lost to as a favorite in their previous same-season match-up. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since March 17, 2001 as a home dog with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since November 01, 2008 when they scored at least 25 more points in their previous game than in the game before.

Heat at Spurs - The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since February 26, 1999 on the road after playing on the road against the Hornets. The Spurs are 8-0-1 ATS (8.9 ppg) since February 25, 2008 as a favorite after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Spurs are 0-7 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since December 17, 2007 as a home favorite after a home win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since February 25, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a win in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

Jazz at Thunder - The Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since January 21, 2009 as a road dog when they have a revenge game next.

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