Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, December 12,2009

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, December 12,2009

Brandon Lang

30 DIME - NAVY MIDSHIPMEN - This is another Navy rout waiting to happen.

Over the last 10 years, Navy has won 9, and all but one of those 9 wins has been by double digits.

You focus on the last 5 years and you will see Navy wins by margins of 29, 19, 12, 35 and 34.

Folks, only 1 game in the last 10 years has been close, and what is even more impressive is in 4 of the last 5 years Navy has been laying double digits.

The only non-cover was 2006 when as a 18 point favorite, Navy won the game 26-14 as Army punched in a touchdown with just 2 seconds on the clock for the backdoor score.

Take a deep breath because the following number is even more alarming.

Navy has won the last 8 meetings by a combined score of 312-74.

They both played 4 bowl teams but as you are about to see, Navy not only played the better of the 4 teams, they were competitive in everyone.

The Midshipmen played Ohio State on the road to start the season putting up 27 points on the Buckeyes defense and were sniffing the outright win before finally losing 31-27. They battled Pitt to a 27-14 game, beat Air Force 16-13 and lost to Temple 27-24.

Conversely, Army lost to Iowa State 31-10, Rutgers 27-10, Air Force 35-7 and Temple 27-13.

So as you can see the Knights were blown out by an average margin of almost 20 points a game, and that will not bode well for them again today facing this Navy squad off a loss to Hawaii which was a homecoming of sorts for head coach Ken Niumatalolo.

You had better believe it's been a long couple of weeks after the embarrassing loss 24-17 in good old Honolulu.

Folks, it's just to much of an uphill battle facing this Army team considering Navy is going to score with the 3rd best rush offense in the country that has really destroyed some people this year.

There is no question Navy is the better team. No question at all, and if Air Force can hammer this team 35-7 I feel sorry for this Army team today facing a Navy squad that destroyed Rice 63-14, andhas margin of victories this year by 18, 16 and 19.

You really look at Army's 5 wins this year and you will see a 13 point win at Eastern Michigan, 7 point win at home over Ball State, 3 point win at home over Vandy, 5 point win at home over VMI, and a 4 point win over North Texas.

The only signature win for Army was Vandy but again, when you struggle to score 17 points at North Texas, who ranks 104th in run defense and in the bottom 20 nationally in total defense, how much of a signature win can that be.

Bottom line is this. Do you really trust Army plus the points in a Rivalry game they have lost 9 of the last 10 years and all but one of those Navy wins has been by double digits? Enough said.


15 DIME - NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS -Sometimes your reputation precedes you, and such is the case with Siena.

Last year they made some noise in the big dance last year advancing to the 2nd round and proceeded to scare #1 seed Louisville. Siena returns 4 starters from that squad but lost top scorer Kenny Hasbrouck.

They have gotten off to a 6-3 start SU and an impressive 5-3 ATS, but now they step up to face the best team in the Missouri Valley conference in Northern Iowa, a team that returns their entire starting 5 from a year ago.

They too have gotten off to a rock solid start going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS, but bottom line is I am just a lot more impressed with their early body of work than I am Siena.

The Panthers have beaten Iowa State out of the Big 12 by 13 on the road as a 5 1/2 point dog, and Iowa out of the Big 10 by 17 at home as an 11 point favorite.

This is a step up for Siena as their only wins this year are against Albany, Brown, Iona, Delaware, Northeastern and Tennessee State.

Last but not least you throw in Northern Iowa's 8-1 ATS mark when facing a team with a winning SU record and this is great value with the Panthers at home.

Roll with Northern Iowa


5 DIME - UNLV REBELS - Like this Lon Kruger squad.

They have gotten off to a fast start going 7-0 SU and covering 3 of their 4 lined games this year.

Now they get the 8-1 Kansas State Wildcats coming to town and you had better believe Lon will have the Rebels ready.

Already on a Saturday this year Unlv took care of Louisville after blowing a 20 point 2nd half lead.

What I like about this squad that returns 2 starters but is more of a "TEAM" than Kruger has had in the last couple of years.

Personally, I feel Kansas State is living off the Michael Beasley hype of last year and I really don't think this is value you can pass up with the Rebels at home.

Not only is Unlv 7-3 ATS last 10 Saturday games but you add Kansas State a dismal 8-20 ATS last 28 facing a team with a winning home record and this has a Unlv home win and cover written all over it.

Ride the Running Rebels today.

FREE SELECTION - NEW MEXICO LOBOS

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igz1 sports

3* George Mason -2

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PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS

1 Unit VCU -2
1 Unit Northern Iowa -3
1 Unit Washington Huskies +2

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WAYNE ROOT

Veags Legend - Navy

CBB GOM - Oklahoma

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Insider Sports Report

4* Boston/Chicago UNDER 188.5

4* Ohio State +3.5 over Butler

3* Army +14 over Navy

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Anthony Redd

50-Dime - Kansas State
10-Dime - La Salle
10-Dime - Arizona

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BEN BURNS

Rivalry TOTAL OF THE YEAR

I'm playing on Army and Navy to finish UNDER the total. At first glance, this o/u number appears pretty low. Its climbed above the important 41 mark though and I feel that provides us with plenty of value. Navy's last game was back on 11/28, at Hawaii. Despite Ha‚waii being rather defensively-challenged," the Warriors limited Navy to just 17 points, including 0 in the second half. The Midshipmen did hold the Warriors to 24 points though, the fifth straight time that the held an opponent to less than 28 points. During that span, they allowed an average of 20 points. That includes holding Notre Dame to only 21 and Wake Forest to just 10. The UNDER was 3-1 in those games, the other didn't have a total. For the season, the Midshipmen are allowing a very respectable 21.3 per game.

The Black Knights were also solid defensively this season. They held North Texas to 13 points in their most recent game, a 17-13 victory way back on 11/21. That was the second straight game that they allowed 17 points or less. For the season, they allowed an average of only 22.4 points and just 310 total yards. Unfortunately, for Army fans, the offense wasn't very good. Army averaged only 16.5 points per game, gaining just 283.4 yards per game. Those numbers dip to 14.8 ppg (280 yards) on the road.

With both teams having had an extended break, note that Navy has seen the UNDER go 4-2 the last six times that it was coming off a bye. During the same stretch, Army has seen the UNDER go 5-1 when it was coming off a bye.

Looking at the recent series history and we find that each of the last three meetings finished below the total. Those games had combined scores of 40, 41 and 34 points. On a cool Philadelphia afternoon, with both teams chewing up the clock with frequent running plays, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *9

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ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
4 on Army +16
3 on the under 42

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KIKKI SPORTS

GOM - Alabama

GOM - Navy

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Pointwise Phone Service

3* Navy

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RED ZONE SPORTS

SATURDAY'S NCAAB POWER PLAY BOMB

Kentucky - 9

Kentucky is a true Nat'l title contender, as their young players (Wall, Cousins & Bledsoe - all freshman) will have close to 33 games under their belt when they get there. John Wall is clearly the freshman of the year candidate, and is faster than almost all point guards. Cousins is a very mobile 6-11 forward who will get better every night and will allow All American Patrick Paterson to shine even more. We see the game will be close early and then Talent takes over when the emotion burns away. Take WILDCATS!! BY DBL DIGITS


Purdue- 4.5

We 're on the Purdue Boilermakers who have a class that has played together for three straight NCAA tourneys. Their only issue is depth up front. They have enough athleicism to cover that issue. All "5" starters return from 27 win team including "3" wins in NCAA tour. Eetwn Moore & Robbie Hummel are really special. Chris Kramer is the role player, lunch bucket guy all great teams have. I pick this team to win the Big 10. BAMA has been too inconsistent, but they are at home, but veteran Purdue covers the small number on the road.

Bonus winner Saturday Night Kansas State + 3

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Bryan Leonard

Saturday NCAA Shocker

Western Carolina at Louisville

The Catamounts of Western Carolina are 9-1 on the season with victories over Duquesne, Wofford and Bradley. Their single loss this year was an embarrassing 73-41 defeat at Texas. Overall 5 of the top 8 players for the Catamounts are seniors who have competed on the road in the past against quality opposition. Western Carolina is a very good defensive team who ranks 9th in the nation defending the three. Coach Larry Hunter has taken a team that won just 10 games two seasons ago to a squad that can compete for an NCAA Tournament berth this year. They have a current RPI rating of 28 which makes them a dangerous dog here.

Louisville is 5-2 on the season having lost 2 of the last 3 games they have played. They are off an embarrassing 87-65 home loss to Charlotte. While we normally look to back a quality coached team off a loss of that nature we simply can't help but think that something is terribly wrong with the Cardinals. Rick Pitino still doesn't have a full grasp of his playing rotations and the team hasn't come together the way he has hoped. This is a team that won 27 and 31 games the past two years but that winning chemistry just hasn't been there this season. Other than the blowout victory over Arkansas in the season opener this team just hasn't beaten a quality team all year. To expect them to win by a margin tonight would be too much to ask from a team still trying to find themselves.

This is a statement game for the up and coming Catamounts and they have a great shot of taking this contest to the wire. Too many points to lay for the Cardinals who have underperformed this season.

PLAY WESTERN CAROLINA


Ohio State at Butler

Well aware of the Buckeyes missing outstanding junior Evan Turner but there is no way this club doesn't show up here. When a key player goes down the team responds big in the first game after the injury. And keep in mind that this team has plenty of scoring options. They rank 2nd in the nation in field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage. The Buckeyes have five players averaging double figure scoring. Where they will miss Turner is in rebounding and defense as he was a terror on the boards. But this is a veteran squad with 7 of the top 8 players being upperclassmen. Ohio State is the better team here and they are getting points in a game that they must prove themselves to the nation, a motivated underdog with talent.

Butler is 6-3 on the season and they dropped all three games when stepping up in class. The earlier 69-67 neutral site victory over UCLA has been lessoned as the Bruins have been possibly the biggest disappointment in the nation. Butler is normally an excellent shooting team that takes care of the ball but that's not the Bulldog team we have seen this far. They rank in the lower half in just about every statistic and they have been especially poor in rebounding and blocking shots. That means the Ohio State weaknesses will not be exploited by the Bulldogs.

Butler is clearly a step down this season which isn't to say they won't be a team to be counted on later this year. But the way they are playing they simply don't deserve to be favored here over a much better offensive squad. Just two of the top 14 players on this team are seniors and this school has graduated a great deal of talent the past two seasons. Butler is good but not in the Buckeye's class at this point in the year.

PLAY OHIO STATE

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Savannah Sports

2* Army +15.5


Eric Degarde


1* Indiana +8.5

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MR EAST

NBA SATURDAY UNDER THE RADAR

BOSTON CELTICS @ CHICAGO BULLS
PLAY: CHICAGO BULLS +10.5 FOR 3 UNITS

The Boston Celtics have been picking their spots this season, and play well enough to win games, but don't exert full energy every night knowing they have an aging cast of star players. They have won 9 games in a row, but 6 of those games show margins of just 9 points or less, and have just 3 double-digit road wins on the season, and have dropped their last 5 on the road as a -7 point favorite or higher. The Bulls miss Ben Gordon who kept them in the playoff series vs Boston last year, and they will have something to say about a 28 point loss to Boston early in the season. The Bulls have played 9 home games and have lost just 1 by more than 2 points. I'll go with Chicago here.

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ATS Lock Club

4* Army CFB

20* Boise St GOY
7* E Michigan
6* Loyola Chic
5* VCU

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Underground Sports Connection

200* Denver Nuggets -9

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Dominic Fazzini

20 Dime - Army

The Midshipmen have won seven straight against their military academy rivals, and probably will win again today, but the Black Knights have some new ammunition for today's 110th meeting between the teams.

Freshman quarterback Trent Steelman is a real tough, talented kid and has started every game this season for Army. He is only the second plebe every to start at QB against Navy, and he leads the Black Knights with 690 yards and five touchdowns rushing this year. He also has completed 52.2 percent of his throws for 560 yards and three TDs with just one interception, but passing is not a big part of Army's offense.

Instead, the Black Knights run the same triple-option attack that the Midshipmen utilize, which should have both defenses quite familiar with what each offense is coming with today. And that should help keep the game close.

First-year Army coach Rich Ellerson has helped his team move within one win of a spot in the Eagle Bank Bowl, where they would face Temple. And while that's not exactly a BCS bowl, any bowl bid would be quite a big deal at West Point.

Ellerson has the Black Knights playing good ball, and he learned the triple option from former Navy coach Paul Johnson while the two were working at Hawaii, so Navy won't be doing anything offensively he hasn't coached his players to defend.

And while Army doesn't pass the ball much, when it does it has a big advantage -- literally -- in wide receiver Ali Villanueva. The senior stands 6-10 and was moved from left tackle, where he started 12 games last year for the Black Knights, to wideout before the season started. He leads the team with 29 catches for 460 yards (15.9-yard average) and five TDs.

Most of the ATS trends favor the Midshipmen, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. I think Army easily stays within two touchdowns today. Go with the Black Knights to cover the points.

10 Dime -- WICHITA STATE (minus points vs. Texas Christian)

WICHITA STATE

The Shockers are a far more physical team than the Horned Frogs are, especially at home, where they are 5-0 this season.

Seven-foot center Garrett Stutz is going to be a big obstacle for TCU to overcome if he can avoid foul trouble, and he helps lead a Wichita State defense that is allowing just 53.9 points per game.

The Shockers have played a relatively easy schedule so far in going 8-1, only playing three lined games, but they have won by an average of nearly 20 points per game. And they can get scoring from a variety of players, led by guard Toure' Murry, who is averaging 13.6 ppg.

Wichita State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 nonconference games, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five against Mountain West teams. The Horned Frogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last six nonconference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Take the Shockers to win by at least a dozen points tonight.

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RAS

E. Mich -5' 1.5 Units

1 Unit

Towson +5

S. Miss -1'

Boise St. -5

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Tim Trushel

UNLV

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Evan Altemus

3 units ATS: Indiana Pacers +7.5

Washington has no business being this high of a favorite against anyone at home. The Wizards have routinely played to the level of their competition this season and last season. Washington hasn’t defeated any recent opponents by this margin at home recently, despite playing lower quality opponents like Toronto, Philadelphia, and Charlotte. The Wizards are also coming off of a disappointing home loss to Boston. The Pacers played well without Danny Granger last night, and they have the offense to keep this game close. Look for Indiana to get the point spread cover.

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