NBA News and Notes Monday 11/23

NBA News and Notes Monday 11/23

Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The Sacramento Kings and the Memphis Grizzlies will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at FedExForum.

The Kings were defeated 113-106 by the Rockets last time out as an 11-point underdog. The 219 points sailed OVER the posted total of 203.5.

Spencer Hawes poured in a game-high 24 points to go with nine rebounds in the loss.

The Grizzlies were upset 103-98 by the Bucks last time out as a 3.5-point favorite at home. That game's combined 201 points made it OVER the posted total of 196.

Rudy Gay collected a double-double with 24 points and 10 rebounds in the loss.

Current streak:
Sacramento has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Sacramento: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS
Memphis: 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS

Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Monday are 1-9
Before playing New York are 4-6
After playing Houston are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7

Memphis most recently:
When playing on Monday are 2-8
Before playing Phoenix are 1-9
After playing Milwaukee are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Memphis's last 9 games at home
Memphis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games

Next up:
Sacramento home to New York, Wednesday, November 25
Memphis at Phoenix, Wednesday, November 25


Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs

The Milwaukee Bucks and the San Antonio Spurs will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at AT&T Center.

Oddsmakers currently have the Spurs listed as 9-point favorites versus the Bucks, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

Brandon Jennings poured in 26 points to help lead the Bucks to a 103-98 victory over the Grizzlies last time out as a 3.5-point underdog. The combined 201 points made it OVER the posted total of 196.

Luke Ridnor had 13 points and dished out 12 assists for the Bucks, and Charlie Bell added 19 points in the win.

Tim Duncan netted 16 points and hauled down nine rebounds as the Spurs beat the Wizards 106-84 on Saturday. The Spurs covered the 7.5-point spread, while the 190 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.

Tony Parker had 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists in that win.

Current streak:
Milwaukee has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Milwaukee: 8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS
San Antonio: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS

Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing New Orleans are 4-6
After playing Memphis are 3-7
After a win are 6-4

San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Monday are 8-2
Before playing Golden State are 9-1
After playing Washington are 8-2
After a win are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Next up:
Milwaukee at New Orleans, Wednesday, November 25
San Antonio home to Golden State, Wednesday, November 25


Chicago Bulls vs. Portland Trail Blazers

The Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Rose Garden.

Oddsmakers currently have the Trail Blazers listed as 8½-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

The Bulls were defeated 112-93 by the Nuggets last time out as 8-point underdogs. The combined score went UNDER the posted total of 207.

Derrick Rose shot 11-for-20 from the field with a team-high 28 points in the loss.

The Trail Blazers jumped out to an early lead and went on to rout the Timberwolves 106-78 in Week 12. The Trail Blazers covered the 13-point spread, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 187.

Martell Webster led the Trail Blazers with 21 points and 13 rebounds for a double-double.

Current streak:
Chicago has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Chicago: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS
Portland: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Utah are 5-5
After playing Denver are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4

Portland most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing New Jersey are 0-10
After playing Minnesota are 7-3
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Portland
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Portland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

Next up:
Chicago at Utah, Thursday, November 26
Portland home to New Jersey, Wednesday, November 25


Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Los Angeles Clippers will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at STAPLES Center.

The Timberwolves were defeated 106-78 by the Trail Blazers on Saturday as a 13-point underdog. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 187.

Al Jefferson collected 20 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double.

The Clippers' early lead helped them hang on in the end as they upset the Nuggets 106-99 on Friday as 9-point underdogs. The game's 205 points fell UNDER the posted total of 206.5.

Rasual Butler led the Clippers with 27 points, and Al Thornton added 18 in the win.

Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 12 straight games.

Team records:
Minnesota: 1-12 SU, 3-9-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS

Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing Denver are 3-7
After playing Portland are 2-8
After a loss are 0-10

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Indiana are 3-7
After playing Denver are 2-8
After a win are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the LA Clippers last 20 games

Next up:
Minnesota home to Denver, Wednesday, November 25
LA Clippers at Indiana, Wednesday, November 25

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/23

Chicago (6-6, 4-8 ATS) at Portland (10-5, 9-6 ATS)

The Bulls continue their six-game West Coast road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden in Portland to take on the Trail Blazers.

Chicago opened the trip with a victory at Sacramento on Tuesday, but it has dropped the last two, falling 108-93 at the Lakers as a 9½-point ‘dog Thursday, then losing in Denver on Saturday 112-93 as an eight-point pup. Chicago, which has scored more than 94 points just once this season, shoots 43.2 percent from the floor but just 29 percent from behind the three-point line.

Portland has alternated wins and losses over its last six outings, including Saturday night’s 106-78 home win over Minnesota, cashing in as a 13-point favorite. All five starters scored double-digits for the Blazers on Saturday, led by Martell Webster’s 21 points and 13 rebounds, while Steve Blake had 14 points and nine assists.

The Trail Blazers have won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series, including a 116-74 blowout win in Portland last season as a 6½-point favorite. Portland is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings and the straight-up winner has gotten the cash in eight of the last 10 matchups.

Despite failing to get the money at L.A. and at Denver in the last two, Chicago has still cashed in 14 of its last 18 games against Western Conference teams and seven of its last 10 Monday games, but the Bulls are also on negative ATS streaks of 1-4 overall, 2-6 on the road, 1-7 after getting a day off and 0-7-1 after a straight-up loss. The Blazers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Eastern Conference, but  they’re otherwise on positive ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 11-5 at home, 7-2 on Mondays, 5-1 after spread-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win.

The Bulls are on modest “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 against Western Conference teams and 7-0 after a non-cover. Portland has topped the total in seven straight Monday contests, but otherwise it is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 8-3 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after getting a day off. In this series, the “over” is 4-1 in the last five contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/23

NBA RoundUp for 11/23
by Dan Bebe

Sports Wagering

Grizzlies/Kings -
This line is OFF. My thoughts on the matchup, though, might give us a few angles to play once we get a line. Unfortunately, I'll be traveling most of tomorrow (Detroit to LA, Thanksgiving duty calleth), so I may not be able to land and get internet access in time to post follow-up notes on this game. Both of these high-scoring teams have recently begun to execute much better. They are both coming off a loss (or multiple losses, if you're Sacramento), but really, the Kings' effort can't be faulted. They've lost 3 straight, and while the home double-digit clunker to the Bulls was less than stellar, the gritty road losses to both Dallas and Houston showed that this Kings team has moxie, with or without Kevin Martin. I was right in one respect, that the Kings would finally lose one game, then a few more losses would follow, but I was wrong in another regard, in that I felt they would fail to cover the spread in those losses, since the win-streak would likely shift public perception and alter the lines. The Kings are covering machines right now. The Grizzlies have a ton of talent, and it seems to have taken a couple weeks, but they're starting to execute a little bit more on defense, and have seen their results improve as a result. They beat some lowly competition for 3 straight wins, but you still have to be better than 3 teams in the League to have a 3-game winning streak, and that's what we saw. The Grizzlies started off strong at home in their last game, too, but saw Milwaukee come back and win it late. This game is another home contest for Memphis, and I think oddsmakers feel these teams are pretty closely matched, with the edge, I would figure, going slightly to Memphis, for an opening line in the neighborhood of 4 or 5. I would lean Kings to keep this one close, since I don't see either team playing well enough to run away. The total is going to open over 200, no question, though Memphis, again, has been playing better defense, so I'd lean to a total near 207 or 208.

Spurs/Bucks - San Antonio by 9 at home with a total of 193. This side is too high, no question. There are times when we see a huge line that is baiting folks into taking the dog, but I believe this line is just the same thing we've seen all year, and that is a severe underrating of the Milwaukee Bucks, who just continue to play games that make Scott Skiles look like the smartest coach in the League. San Antonio got Tony Parker back, and they played a solid all-around game against the Wizards, but Washington is still adjusting to having Antawn Jamison back, and while they did trounce the visiting Cavaliers 3 games back, the Wiz ALWAYS play the Cavs tough. Make no mistake, the Wizards are improving, but San Antonio's drubbing of them is less an indicator of San Antonio's skill, and more an indicator of Washington's over-reliance on the outside shot. Milwaukee, on the other hand, runs a clever offense, and plays excellent team defense. Skiles has stockpiled guys like Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Delfino, and others that are all excellent wing defenders. I also like that the Bucks have one of the few guards (Jennings) in the NBA that can match speeds with Tony Parker. That's not to say he can guard him, but he has a better chance to stay in front of Tony, and then make him work hard on the defensive end. I think Milwaukee keeps this thing close until pretty late. I think the total is spot on. Milwaukee is not a high-scoring team, though they may try to push the pace a bit, and I'd lean just a nip to the Over.

Blazers/Bulls - Portland laying 8.5 to the struggling road-weary Bulls with a total of 180. This total has already moved up a point from the opening line of 179, which I find rather puzzling, given that both of these teams are slower than molasses. Perhaps it's a situation where you get two ultra-defensive minded teams together, and the team with less size and less talent (Bulls) tries to make sure they don't get crushed by running and gunning. The Bulls certainly have the personnel to make some headway running the ball up and the court. Despite the Bulls potential to try to speed this thing up, I still see Portland dominating the game, and I just can't picture Chicago bouncing back after getting hammered both in LA and Denver. That team has to be a bit rattled, really getting taken to school by two of the best teams in the NBA. Chicago needs home cooking or a game against a bad team right now, and this is not the night for it. I would lean to the Blazers to continue to make Chicago look bad on this roadie. I also think that despite Portland picking up the pace a little in the second half, they will go back to slowing things down. I have a TINY lean to the Under, but with McMillan's choice to let Brandon Roy run the offense, I'm not sure if we see this team push the pace just a little bit more than usual, since he can just take the ball into the paint and make things happen by himself.

Clippers/Timberwolves - Hah! Seriously? This is a game? The only way anyone is going to be tuning in to this one is if they have money on it. That's where we'd normally come in, but sadly, the line on this one is OFF. The Clippers are better than the Timberwolves, that's pretty safe, and the Clippers are coming off a win over the Nuggets, but I don't think one win is going to earn them the entire world's respect. This game will receive very little action, especially since the line is getting released late. I would lean Clippers, since it's pretty clear the Wolves can't compete with anyone, especially on the road. I expect a total in the low 190's, and I expect the Clippers to open as a moderate-sized favorite, perhaps in the 5-7 range. This shouldn't have any traps, either, since almost no one is betting it, so there's really no reason to go any direction with the line other than what the power rankings tell us.

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/23

Tips and Trends

Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers


Bulls: Chicago is in the middle of a 6 game road trip. The Bulls have lost 2 consecutive games, and 4 of 5 ATS. They've given up 220 PTS combined in the past 2 games. Prior to those games, they had held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 90 PTS or fewer. The Bulls are led offensively by F Luol Deng and PG Derrick Rose. Rose has started to warm up a bit, as he's scored more than 20 PTS in consecutive games for the first time this season. Rose is going to need yet another strong performance on the road against the defensive minded Trailblazers.

Bulls are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Key Injuries - F Tyrus Thomas (forearm) is out.
C Jerome James (achilles) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 83


Trail Blazers (-8.5, O/U 179.5): The Blazers are 10-5 SU this season, as they are off to a great start in the Western Conference. Of the Blazers 10 wins, they've covered ATS in all of them but one. The Blazers play really good defense at home, as no team has scored more than 97 PTS against them. 6 of the 7 games this season in Portland have gone under the posted total. On offense, the Blazers are very well balanced. They have 8 players averaging more than 7 PPG. G Brandon Roy leads the way, with 20 PPG. The Blazers won both games last year against the Bulls by double digits.   

Blazers are 11-5 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - F Travis Outlaw (foot) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 88 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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