Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tom Freese

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Diego Padres

San Diego has won 10 of their last 11 games and they are 37-16 when Jake Peavy starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Padres are 6-1 vs. righty starters and they are 4-1 as road favorites. Arizona starter Billy Buckner is off his first ever win in his last start and he figures to be flat in this start. The Diamondbacks are 6-13 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 6-13 off a win. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO - (Peavy vs. Buckner)

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on San Francisco Giants +100

I like the Giants to pull off the series sweep tonight with 5-time Cy Young Award winner Randy Johnson getting his 299th career victory. Johnson has had Atlanta's number recently, going 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA in his last three starts versus the Braves and is 7-4 when starting against Atlanta with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 0.968 since 1997. The Braves have now lost 4 straight in this matchup and are only 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco. They don't appear to be in good hands tonight with Kawakami either, as they are 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. The road has not been kind to Atlanta as the Braves are 10-25 in their last 35 games as a road favorite and only 6-21 in their last 27 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Also, the bounce back factor appears unlikely here since they are only 4-10 in their last 14 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Back the Giants.

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOS (+100) vs MIN

In Minnesota's 5-2 win over Boston (27-19) on Tuesday night, Morneau's 14th homer - a three-run shot - capped a five-run fifth inning for the Twins (23-24), who have won five of six after losing a season-high six in a row; that being said, I look for the Red Sox, behind Daisuke Matsuzaka to earn the victory tonight. While the Red Sox have lost all three of Matsuzaka's starts this season, they've won all three of his outings against the Twins. Matsuzaka is 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in those games and I look for this trend to continue this evening. Look for the RED SOX to improve to 11-8 after a loss!

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Indiancowboy

Take Under 9.5 Boston Redsox @ Minnesota Twins.

The Redsox lost 2-5 yesterday and look to bounce-back today behind the back of Dice-K. Dice pitched relatively well in his last start but he came up with the Loss. He only gave up 5 hits, but over the course of 5 innings he ended up giving up 4 runs. The Redsox went on to lose that game 3-5 at home. He looks to bounce-back today against the Twins as he is matched up with Slowey who is pitching very well of late and overall this season. He has put together 3 straight quality starts and 5 of 7 quality starts to his credit. Heck, he is 6-1 with a 4.23era. Considering this is game 3 and in some ways a rubber game as these two teams have split the series so far, I look for a competitive pitching contest as Dice looks to be on the bounce-back and Slowey has been pitching sound thus far. The Under is 4-1-1 in Boston's last 6 road games and the Under is 8-3 in Slowey's last 11 starts when the total is in between the 8 to 10.5 range.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -107 over Kansas City Royals

We took the loss on the Tigers yesterday but I'm going to jump back on them today. Kyle Davies has struggled this season with a 2-3 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but at home he's been worse with a 7.16 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Today he'll be facing Rick Porcello, who has given up just 3 runs on 14 hits in his last 17 innings of work. He should be able to keep up the impressive numbers against a Kansas City team that is scoring just 2.6 runs per game over their last seven and batting .215 during that stretch. Detroit isn't really killing the ball, but they have put up 5.4 runs per game this year and should be able to pull through as the slight favorite.

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RJ Robbins

Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins   
Play: Minnesota Twins     

We will take the Twins. Minnesota's Kevin Slowley has been a very pleasant surprise with a 6-1 record and a 4.23 ERA. Boston starter Dice-K has struggled in his 3 starts with the Red Sox losing all 3 and his ERA over 10! Boston is 6-17 against the money line in games played in a dome over the L2 seasons, 2-4 this year. MINNESOTA-1.30

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rocketman

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals    
Play: Detroit Tigers   

Detroit is 25-19 on the season while Kansas City is 23-23 this year. Kansas City is 31-57 last 3 years at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Kansas City is scoring only 4 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Rick Porcello is 5-3 with a 3.55 ERA overall this year, 3.91 ERA on the road and 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA his last 3 starts. Davies is 2-2 with a 7.16 ERA at home this year and 0-2 his last 3 starts. Davies is 1-5 with a 5.69 ERA overall vs Detroit since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit today!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins

While Dice-K is the pitcher with the higher profile, he has yet to win a game this season and has a hideous 10.33 ERA in three starts. The Twins' Kevin Slowey is unbeaten in six home starts and has been red hot recently with a 2.14 ERA over his last three outings. Boston has struggled mightily indoors the past two seasons (6-17) and is just 10-22 on artificial turf. They average just 4.5 runs per game on the road while the Twins average a healthy 5.8 at home.

Play on: Minnesota

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

NHL
Chicago/Detroit Over 5.5

MLB
New York Yankees -135
Minnesota Twins -130
Seattle Mariners -115

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Wunderdog

San Diego at Arizona
Pick: Arizona +140

The Padres have been playing way over their head and with Jake Peavy on the mound you would expect that wouldn't change. Then you look inside the numbers and, despite the fact he has pitched well, the Padres are just 3-6 in his nine starts and an even worse 1-3 on the road. That runs the Padres road record to 6-12 in his last 18 road starts, well worth a nice dog price on the Diamondbacks. When you add in the fact that the Padres are 6-19 on the road this season and a woeful 29-61 in their last 90 trips to the desert, value lies on Arizona here and I will go with them as a live dog.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies   

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Phillies as they face the Marlins and use the run-line if available. Florida is just 3-14 against the run line (-14.9 Units) versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 224-107 making 80.5 units since 2003. Play against NL road teams in the month of May with a low on-base percentage of <=.350 facing a team with a good bullpen sporting a WHIP <=1.350. Florida is just 4-13 (-10.0 Units) against the money line versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Phils are 52-32 (+12.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Marlins are 10-20 (-11.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Phils starter Myers, after a rough start to the season, has really come to top form of late. Myers sports a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP over his last 3 starts and the Marlins are not hitting period. Myers won his last start at Yankee Stadium despite allowing 3 HR – he has allowed 15 home runs in 9 starts. The weather is damp and cool in Philadelphia and that does keep the ball from flying out. The home plate umpire is Wally Bell and he is one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the game. Extremely fair, however, just one that can give the corners more readily, which will help Myers’ ball movement. Take the Phils.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Mike Rose

Chicago Blackhawks +200

The youthful Blackhawks got a big time dose of reality when they were trounced by the Wings in Game 4 on their home ice. Absolutely nothing went right for G Cristobal Huet, who was making his first career playoff start in relief of the injured Khabibulin. He only stopped 21 of his 26 shots faced, which simply isn't good enough to get the job done against anyone at this level in the postseason. Even worse for Quenneville's squad, his top offensive players never really got shots on the Detroit net either. RW Patrick Kane, C Jonathan Toews, and RW Martin Havlat only combined to take five shots for the game, even though Toews did light the lamp with his goal in the second period, Chicago's lone strike of the game. Huet has the ability of beating the Red Wings. Just look at his effort from April 11th, when he stopped 21 of 23 shots in Chicago's 4-2 victory in Motown.

As long as Detroit doesn't get complacent and continues playing like it did in Game 4, this series shouldn't last too much longer. Stars C Johan Franzen (one goal), RW Marian Hossa (two goals, one assist), and LW Henrik Zetterberg (two goals) finally all came together on the same night, and the result was a six-goal outburst on a young goalie making his first start at this level. Meanwhile, it was business as usual for G Chris Osgood, who stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced before being relieved by G Ty Conklin for the final 20 minutes of the game. The 6-1 final score in Game 4 looks incredibly lopsided, and an incredibly lopsided game it was. Anything and everything Detroit wanted to accomplish, it did. There's no doubt who the better team is in this series, but there's still a big question about the Wings and their killer instinct when they have a team down. They put away Columbus after going up 3-0, but really struggled with Anaheim for an unnecessarily long time. This Chicago club is the stingiest bunch they've run into so far in this postseason and won't go away easily.

Chicago's spirits are still very high in this series in spite of the bad loss in Game 4. The Blackhawks had every opportunity in the world to steal Game 2 of this series a week ago, and have to feel like they let one slip away. The odds weren't this high on Detroit in that Game 2, and though ultimately, they'll go on to defend their Stanley Cup title against the Pens again, tonight may not be the close out night. The young Hawks are almost too stupid to realize that they shouldn't be here, and they've defied the odds all season. Theres a ton of value on a Chicago team tonight with absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jorge Gonzalez

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles    
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue jays will be looking to snap their eight game losing streak when they take on the Baltimore Orioles in their third game of the series, The Blue Jays will turn to Roy Holiday to end their losing ways against a team that th Doc has owned over his career. Holiday has a career record of 23-4 against the Orioles. Toronto has scored just 13 runs during their eight lost streak but have given Holiday has received 7.5 run of support in his last 11 starts from his teammates. Take Holiday to win his sixth straight game

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -142

The Astros have now lost 6 in a row and if they couldn't win with Oswalt yesterday, they won't be able to get the job done with Paulino tonight, who is 0-5 against the money line in 5 starts this season and has an ERA of 7.45 on the road. Cincy is a perfect 7-0 against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games this season and it gets my support here tonight.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on NY Yankees -134

I'll back the Yankees with the better starter on the hill in this bounce back spot. I know Burnett has been far from exceptional thus far, but he's due and I like his chances tonight when you consider that the Yankees are 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. The Yankees are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in this matchup, 11-3 in their last 14 overall, 44-19 in their last 63 during game 3 of a series, and 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Plus, the Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Take the Yanks tonight.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Reds -$1.45 vs Astros

The marketplace has pushed this game up, backing the Reds. At first I was leery of laying this price with Bronson Arroyo on the hill for Cincinnati.But the marketplace has this right. This isn't too high of a price to fade the fading Astros and their horrendous, overmatched manager Cecil Cooper.The surging Reds are just 1 1/2 games out of first place in the NL Central Division. They are playing their best ball and their confidence level is up, while the Astros have lost six in a row.Wandy Rodriguez couldn't win here on Monday. Roy Oswalt couldn't win on Tuesday. So what makes anybody think Felipe Paulino can win tonight? Cooper that's who. The idiot manager must not fully comprehend that Paulino is struggling big-time. Since returning to Houston's rotation, the youngster has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts. His ERA for this month is 13.14.Pitching in this hitter-friendly park isn't going to help young Paulino's confidence either. The Astros' bullpen has been a disaster, particularly in middle relief. Closer Jose Valverde remains out.The Astros catch one break in that Brandon Phillips isn't expected to start until the weekend. But the star second baseman is available to pinch-hitAnother key to the handicap is Arroyo. Oddsmakers have trouble figuring him out. Is he good or bad? His ERA is 5.79, which indicates bad.But a closer look reveals Arroyo to be good. After the All-Star break last season he went 8-4 with a 3.47 ERA.This season he's had two disastrous performances. These came against Atlanta (nine runs in 5 2/3 innings) and Milwaukee (nine runs in one inning). However, in his other seven starts he is 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA.The Reds are 13-4 when favored during Arroyo's last 17 home starts.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Greg Shaker

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Play: Over 9.5

The Rockies were limited to just 1 run last night but that is not going to happen often and certainly not when they face a lefty. They are batting well over .300 verses Southpaws. Case in point: The 21-year-old Kershaw struggled in his last outing against the Rockies, giving up a season-high nine runs while walking four in 4 2/3 innings of a 10-4 loss at Colorado on April 26. He is 1-3 with an 8.20 ERA in four starts versus the Rockies. These teams have played a lot of high scoring affairs this year and year's past and with this being a day game at Coors, this betting line is too low. Day games at Coors can be crazy and today's weather is favorable for another one of those types of contests. Jimenez' two starts this year verses LA were very poor, allowing 13 runs over about 8 innings of work. The fact is, LA leads the Big Leagues in runs scored and they have had little trouble scoring while playing Colorado. They have already plated 66 times verses the Rockies and their confidence level to keep that going should be very high. I like this one to top this low Coors Field Total today and I also like the +100 betting line as money is pouring in on the Under.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rich Green

OAKLAND CAHILL -R +1.5 Runs, -150 Over Seattle

The Athletics trail the American League West Division under their Manager Bob Geren with a record of 18-25 on the season. They have won three games in a row lately though, and are getting good pitching and timely hitting. Rookie Trevor Cahill (2-4, 4.62) gets the nod for the A's this afternoon. The Right-hander is 0-1 with a 1.38 ERA versus the Mariners, and he allowed one run in six innings of a 3-2 road win against them May 2nd. This game can be a close one, and we'll take the runs for Free Players today.

The Mariners enter this Division match up under their first-year Manager Don Wakamatsu at 21-26 on the year. They have been mired in a 6-16 slump lately. Erik Bedard (2-2, 2.64 ERA) takes the mound for the Mariners this afternoon. The Lefty yielded a pair of solo homers and struck out six while throwing 95 pitches in five innings of a 3-0 loss to the Angels on Thursday. Negative trends for the Mariners here include 74-110 on the Road, 32-51 in May, and 11-20 versus Right-handed starters.

The Run line opened today at Athletics +1.5 Runs, -150. We'll take those runs and the Home A's to cover for us here today.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Nite Owl Sports

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: 1 unit Denver Nuggets +230

Lakers' recent dominance (TY and LY) over Nuggs at Staples, which had been quite impressive, is now a thing of the past, after game one changed all that, and game two proved that game one was not a fluke. And in that game one, Denver dominated early, but showed, with sub par FT shooting and some critical late mistakes (especially that horrible in-bounds pass in final seconds that was stolen by LA's Trevor Ariza to "ice' the win for the lucky Lakers) that as good as they have been playing, maybe they were not quite "at the next level" that it will take to de-throne LA as NBA West champs. But then Denver broke through in game two for that elusive road playoff SU win over a quality team, showing that maybe they have, in fact, reached that "next level" needed to de-throne LA as NBA West champs.

To determine if Nuggs have a realistic chance to win this game SU, we looked at both teams' performance in 16 "representative games" (7 Denver games as medium priced road dogs of about +200 on ML at NBA elite teams, and nine Laker games as home faves of about –200 on ML vs the NBA elite, both TY (including games one and two of this series and a late season (April) game between these two at Staples, as well as regular season games TY vs Boston (with KG playing), Orlando and Cleve) and all three Laker HGs in LY's final round vs Boston. And while Lakers were a decent 6-3 SU in their nine games, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of  4 points, including that game two loss to these Nuggs, they were just about “break even” when figuring in the heavy “juice” of –200 to - 250 they were laying on ML in those games. And in their 7 roadies vs NBA elite TY, Nuggs were 3-4 SU with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 2 points, but getting about +200 odds on ML each time, they were a profitable two or more units in those games (-4 units on the 4 losses, and +6 units on the 3 wins). Combining and averaging those #s (and counting the 3 Denver-Laker games in LA just 3X, not 6X) gives us a SU 8-5 advantage for LA in this game, with a projected LA win by 3.5, but again, when figuring in the big plus odds of +230 that Nuggs are getting on ML in this game, that 8-5 “advantage” for LA becomes an advantage of +3.5 units for the Nuggs (+11.5 units for Denver’s 5 SU wins, and –8 units for LA’s SU wins).

Moreover, the Kobies (excuse us, the Lakers) showed us very little in games one and two on their usually strong home court (where they had been dominant so far in TY's playoffs), often looking “out of sync” on offense, like they also did for all of game 7 (also at Staples) of Houston series, and on defense allowing Denver many more uncontested (or minimally contested) shots than normal, especially in game one. But LA won game one due primarily to Kobe Bryant's "will to win," as he carried his team on his back for most of the game, keeping them close enough for a chance to win by hitting for 40 points on 13-28 shooting (with only 3 trey attempts) and then “sealing the deal" by hitting 12 of 13 FTs, many of them down the stretch in that decisive 4Q. But laying –250 odds on Lakers for Kobe to pull out another last second win for his team, over a team that beat them the last time they played at this same site? We don’t think that makes much sense.

And if Kobe is not dominant tonite, and Pau Gasol cannot get untracked, Lakers could be in for a long night. For example, the game one results don’t bode well for LA, as Gasol scored just 13 and was able to get open for just a handful of shots (about half of his points were tip ins or “put-backs of missed shots by other Lakers), “Fish” had 13 but on only 5-13 shooting, and no other laker was in double figures (Odom scored just 7 on 3-7, and Bynum pulled one of his “no shows” with just 6 points on 2-4 shooting, playing limited minutes due to early foul trouble). Contrast that to Nuggs, who had much better balance than LA in game one, in support of “Melo’s” 39 points on 14-20 shooting, incl 4-5 treys – K Mart for 15 points on 7-14 shooting and 8 boards, and Nene with 14 points on 6-9 shooting. Even Chauncey Billups shook off a slow start and finished with 18 points, incl that crucial trey to keep Nuggs in it until game’s final shot. But what did in the Nuggs in that game one, in addition to some sloppy ball handling in the final minute, was their poor FT shooting (just 66% on 35 attempts compared to Lakers 83% on 24 FTs) and being outboarded 37-46.  But in game two, while they did not shoot as well as in game one, they did a better job on the things that win games – they got to the FT line more times than LA (37 vs 35) and this time hit 78% from the line, plus they played Lakers even on the boards (42-43), and they took better care of the ball in “crunch time.”And in game 4, while that game was in Denver, the Nuggs “smoked” the Lakers on the glass, 42-25.

So based on the above, and the fact that Nuggs know they can beat Lakers in LA (having already done it in game 2) and that their chances of getting that needed win here in LA are much better in this game 5 than in a game 7, we give the Nuggets enough of a chance to win this game SU to justify risking one unit on them to win 2.3 units at these generous odds of +230.

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