MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Craig Davis

30 Dime - BULLS

10 Dime - Braves-Nationals OVER

BULLS --- It might look, on the surface, that this game is going to be one of those “they got their butts kicked in Game 1 so they’ll come out and dominate in Game 2” scenarios. I don’t think so. I like the Bulls as my top play winner today for several reasons.

I knew Boston wouldn’t be the same team without Garnett, but I didn’t realize the difference would be this noticeable. Without Garnett, the Bulls are able to watch Allen and Pierce closer (as evidenced by Allen’s 1-for-10 shooting Saturday), and they don’t worry as much about low post scoring.

John Salmons has been a HUGE addition to the Bulls roster since coming over from Sacramento… but it doesn’t always show up on the scoreboard (for him personally). It really all depends on how the Celtics play it here. Saturday, the Celts decided they wanted to keep Salmons (and the other perimeter shooters) in check, but what that did was allow Derrick Rose to have a career day with his dribble penetration and they simply had no answer for him.

In their previous, regular season, meeting (a 127-121 Chicago win back on March 17th), the Celtics were focused on stopping Rose and his penetration (which they did successfully), but what that did was open up shots for Salmons and Ben Gordon (don’t forget about him). You see, either way you slice it, Boston doesn’t have enough defenders now to keep every Chicago shooter in check and that was eventually their downfall in Game 1 of this series.

And let’s not forget about depth. All I hear is how deep Boston is and how that will push them over the edge in matchups like this one. But I look at Chicago and I see a very deep team. Brad Miller (a former starter), Kirk Hinrich (a former starter), Tim Thomas, etc. I’m not worried one bit if someone happens to get into early foul trouble because I believe in this team’s bench and you should too. They’re deep, trust me.

One other concern I have for the Celtics today is their shooting percentages. Let’s be real, Chicago isn’t known as a defensive monster and for them to hold Boston to 39% shooting from the field is a bit mind-boggling. Now, I’m not saying this has all of a sudden become a bad shooting team, but what became very evident is the fact that Chicago is younger, more athletic, and now they have confidence… something Boston didn’t want to give them in Game 1.

Bottom line: Boston might win this game, but I don’t see either team grabbing more than an eight-point lead at any point in the contest and we’re grabbing a gross amount of points again here as the road team. Take Chicago as your top play of the day.

BRAVES-NATIONALS OVER --- You might be thinking I’m crazy for choosing the “OVER” in a game that Derek Lowe is pitching, but I look at this “launching pad” in Washington as a mecca for OVERS and tonight should be no different.

On one hand you have the Nationals scoring over 5 runs per game. On the other hand, you have the Braves facing a rookie who is greener than the grass they’ll play on tonight. Jordan Zimmerman was the opening day starter for the Syracuse Chiefs, the new Triple-A affiliate for the Nationals, and it didn’t take him long to get called up. Though he wasn’t brilliant in his AAA debut (allowing 2 HR in 5+ innings of work), he was good enough to get the call up as the team’s 5th starter in the rotation.

These two have already met three times this season, and the lowest run total was 8 but the run total for the three-game set was 32… that’s nearly 11 runs per game. And if you’re wondering --- yes, Derek Lowe was a starter in one of those other two games that went OVER the total… a 6-5 Braves win.

Guys, it simply doesn’t matter who is pitching or what team plays Washington, the number rarely stays below 10. All we need is nine tonight and we cash in. The Nats have finished OVER in 8 of 11 games with one push while Atlanta has gone OVER in 6 of 12. The OVER has also cashed in 11 of the last 13 H2H meetings and 19 of the last 28 (two pushes) in Washington home games. Atlanta might go OVER by themselves, telling me this game is as easy as OVER by the 7th inning.

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BOOKIE BASHER

MAVERICKS +6.5

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PowerPlayWins

Bulls +8.5
Marlins -120
Braves -135
Spurs -6

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STU FEINER

Dallas Mavericks (+6) at San Antonio Spurs (189)

The Mavericks proved to themselves they can now win a playoff road game and they’ll go out tonight and win another over this slower and older Spurs club. San Antonio did a rather effective job of containing both Dirk Nowitzki (19 points) and Jason Terry (12) Saturday and they still lost. Once again, no Manu Ginobili for the Spurs who are really missing their most explosive scorer. Tim Duncan no longer can be depended on to be dominant every game (he did play well in Game 1, though) and Tony Parker can’t do it all by himself, especially with Jose Barea in his jock. The Mavs bench outscored the Spurs 39-14 in Game 1 and with Erick Dampier crashing the boards did a solid job overall on the glass. San Antonio made 11 of 14 treys and still lost. The Mavs have covered 16 of 21 as a playoff dog and five straight when getting between 5 ½ and 10 points in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Spurs have failed to cover in nine of their last 11 points and this is too many points for them to cover tonight. Dallas has the better bench and is playing the better basketball at this stage and the Mavs will easily stay inside this number tonight.

DALLAS MAVERICKS (+6) 1000 Dime High Roller

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SEABASS

20* ATL

20* COLORADO

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Kelso

10 Units Mavs

3 Units Bulls

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Opposite Action Plays

BOSTON CELTICS

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Mike Lineback

DALLAS MAVERICKS

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Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take Chicago (+8.5) over Boston

There are two trains of thought for this game, one, Boston won't be going down 0-2 and Ray Allen will play much better, and two, The Bulls are just a bad matchup for the Celtics. I believe in the second. After watching Chicago in the first game you know that they have the confidence and the ability to not only play with the Celtics, but beat them. Without Garnett this team is an enigma offensively and you can rely on Ray Ray. Mr. "He Got Game" has been a no show throught his career in the playoffs, excluding the Championship series last year, and that is not something this Celtics team can bounce back from. I know that Derrick Rose scored 36 and he might not do that again, but Rajon Rondo will not be scoring 30 either. Rose was unstoppable, and he should be througout this series. The Celtics are getting too much respect with this high line.


MLB

Underdog System Plays

1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+135) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (+110) over Arizona

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Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Any sign of Karl Garrett?  He is 14-3 on this site since the beginning of the season but hasn't been posted since last Friday.  Maybe he's on vacation???

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Indiancowboy

4 Unit Play. Under 8.5 between Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

4 Unit Play. Take Under 197 between Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics

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singledigits wrote:


Any sign of Karl Garrett?  He is 14-3 on this site since the beginning of the season but hasn't been posted since last Friday.  Maybe he's on vacation???

I saw that the guy posting it said his subscription ran out.

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Scott Delaney

Playoff Total of the Year

30 DIME OVER Celtics/Bulls - Simply put, the Celtics can’t afford to pussyfoot around with this young Chicago team. And if running with the Bulls is what it’ll take to get things done, then run-and-gun basketball is what we’re going to see with these two in Game 2 tonight. I’m going to repeat a lot of what I said with my free-pick analysis on the Celtics, because much of that has to do with why I like the Over much more than I do the side in this game.

Boston’s sense of urgency will be on high alert tonight, and it’s not going to have time to sit back and try to stop the Bulls, it’s going to need to run and score right along with the young boys from the Windy City. This is unfamiliar territory for the Celtics, being down in a series, and the veteran leadership of Paul Pierce will be key to our scoring pace.

At home, this team knows how to be aggressive and knows how to penetrate with the basketball to get this game in its hands. We need to control the pace immediately, and force the Bulls to play defense, not the opposite.

As I stated in my free-pick area, I think the quick turnaround is great for Boston because there’sno doubt in my mind it is ready for the next game. The Celtics will be pushing the tempo, hoping to knot the series as soon as possible.

The numbers certainly favor us, as the over is on runs of 14-6 when the Bulls are installed as the underdog and 7-3 when they play the Atlantic Division. With Boston, the high number is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 21-6 at home and 16-5 against then Eastern Conference. Finally, and most relevant, while the over has come in five of the last seven times these two have met, it’s also on a 4-1 run when they meet in Boston.

Play this one high

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Seabass

100* Bulls

100* Mavericks

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Frank Patron

10000 Unit NBA Playoff Lock

San Antonio Spurs -6

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TEDDY COVERS

Big Ticket - Celtics

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JEFFERSON-SPORTS

WASH +130

BOSTON -8.5

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KBHoops

5* Colorado/Zona OVER 10.5
4* Atlanta -136
4* Atlanta OVER 8.5 -105
4* Cincy Reds +120

5* Celtics OVER 197 **POD**

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Chris James Sports

2* Florida Marlins -124

2* San Antonio Spurs -6
2* Boston Celtics -8.5

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SMTM Sports Picks

1* Atlanta -140

1* Arizona -111

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