NCAAB News and Notes Monday 3/2

NCAAB News and Notes Monday 3/2

Big Monday Breakdown
By Brian Edwards

What did we learn over the weekened? Well, we have a pair of SEC teams in Florida and Kentucky that are seemingly falling apart at the worst time. On the flip side, schools like Providence, Wisconsin and Oklahoma St. are on the come.

Notre Dame gave a game effort in Saturday’s loss at UConn, giving itself a chance to win outright at crunch time. However, the Huskies got key stops in the final two minutes and emerged with the ‘W.’ The Irish face a quick turnaround for Monday’s crucial contest against Villanova in South Bend.

Let’s take a look at ‘Nova-Notre Dame and Texas-Baylor before cleaning out the notebook in Bonus Nuggets.

**Villanova at Notre Dame**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Notre Dame (16-12 straight up, 7-15 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 160.

--Villanova (23-6 SU, 14-11 ATS) had its three-game winning streak snapped Saturday when Georgetown went into Philadelphia and knocked off the Wildcats by a 56-54 count. The Hoyas took the money as 6 ½-point underdogs. ‘Nova shot an abysmal 33 percent from the field (15-of-45), making just 3-of-16 attempts from 3-point range. Dante Cunningham had 13 points and nine rebounds in the losing effort.

--Even in defeat, Notre Dame may have impressed the Selection Committee with its gritty effort in a 72-65 loss at UConn. The game was closer than the final score indicated, as the Irish comfortably covered the number as 11-point underdogs. Tory Jackson finished with 17 points and five assists.

--Even with a spread cover at UConn, the Irish remain in the midst of a 3-11 ATS slide in their last 14 games.

--Mike Brey’s team is 11-2 SU but just 3-5 ATS at home in the Joyce Center. Although the ‘over’ is 11-10 overall for the Irish, the ‘under’ has a 5-2 record in their home games.

--The ‘over’ is 14-11 overall for ‘Nova.

--Villanova owns a 6-4 spread record in its 10 true road games.

--ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Baylor at Texas **

--LVSC opened Texas (19-9 SU, 10-15 ATS) as a nine -point favorite with a total of 149.

--Texas has won 12 of its 15 homes games, but the Longhorns are an abysmal 4-8 ATS in Austin. They come into this game in a three-way tie with Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. for fourth place in the Big 12.

--Baylor (17-11 SU, 7-13 ATS) is one of the nation’s biggest disappointments this season. The Bears made the NCAA Tournament last year and appeared to be a program on the rise, but the Scott Drew Era in Waco has hit a speed bump in 2008-2009. They have limped to a 5-9 record in Big 12 play. Worst of all, Baylor has burned its backers with a 1-9 spread record in its last 10 games.

--Oklahoma St. beat Texas by a 68-59 count Saturday in Stillwater. The Longhorns took the loss as one-point underdogs. Damion James had 18 points and 18 rebounds in the losing effort.

--Baylor was a force during non-conference play, registering wins against Providence, Washington St. and Arizona St. on the way to posting a 12-2 record. However, the Bears lost six straight games starting in late January to fall out of contention for an at-large invite to the Big Dance.

--Texas guard A.J. Abrams (17.0 points per game) is listed as “questionable” after struggling through a 3-for-15 shooting performance against the Cowboys.

--The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 6-0-1 run in Baylor’s last seven games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 11-8-1 overall.

--The ‘under’ is 13-12 overall for Texas, 6-6 in its home games.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

VegasInsider.com

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This week's can't-miss games
By MATT SEVERANCE

It's the final week of the regular season in the major conferences, with most mid-majors starting their tournaments this week. Here's the most intriguing matchup to watch and bet on each night.

Villanova Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Monday, 7 p.m., ESPN)

Nova's loss to Georgetown Saturday might cost the Wildcats a bye in the Big East tournament, while the Irish (7-9 in the Big East) probably need to win out this week and then grab a few victories in the conference tourney to get an NCAA bid.

“If we can get into 9-9 range (in league play), we'll be in the discussion,” Irish coach Mike Brey said after Saturday's loss to Connecticut. “That's all we can ask for right now."

But the Irish might be shorthanded Monday as senior forward and captain Zach Hillesland left three minutes into Saturday's game with a bruised sternum. He is questionable for Monday. Tyrone Nash will make his first collegiate start if Hillesland can't go. Nash had four points and nine rebounds in 20 minutes against the Huskies.

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VILLANOVA (23 - 6) at NOTRE DAME (16 - 12)
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VILLANOVA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
NOTRE DAME is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) in all games this season.
NOTRE DAME is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
NOTRE DAME is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 2-1 straight up against VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BOISE ST (17 - 10) at NEW MEXICO ST (15 - 13)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1997.
NEW MEXICO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 80 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 5-2 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO ST is 5-2 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BAYLOR (17 - 11) at TEXAS (19 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BAYLOR is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) after a conference game this season.
BAYLOR is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TEXAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 3-3 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 6-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


FURMAN (6 - 22) at WOFFORD (15 - 13)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WOFFORD is 4-1 against the spread versus FURMAN over the last 3 seasons
WOFFORD is 3-2 straight up against FURMAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


DAVIDSON (24 - 6) at ELON (10 - 18)
Top Trends for this game.
DAVIDSON is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 96-70 ATS (+19.0 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
DAVIDSON is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ELON is 4-2 against the spread versus DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
DAVIDSON is 6-0 straight up against ELON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


THE CITADEL (19 - 11) at GA SOUTHERN (8 - 20)
Top Trends for this game.
THE CITADEL is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
THE CITADEL is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
THE CITADEL is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games this season.
THE CITADEL is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
THE CITADEL is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
THE CITADEL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest this season.
THE CITADEL is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 4-2 against the spread versus THE CITADEL over the last 3 seasons
GA SOUTHERN is 4-2 straight up against THE CITADEL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

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Re: NCAAB News and Notes Monday 3/2

DAVIDSON vs. ELON
Davidson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Davidson is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
Elon is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Davidson
Elon is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Davidson

FURMAN vs. WOFFORD
Furman is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Furman is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Wofford is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Furman
Wofford is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Furman

VILLANOVA vs. NOTRE DAME
Villanova is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Notre Dame
Villanova is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games
Notre Dame is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

THE CITADEL vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
The Citadel is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The Citadel is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Georgia Southern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Georgia Southern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

BAYLOR vs. TEXAS

Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baylor is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baylor
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baylor

BOISE STATE vs. NEW MEXICO STATE
Boise State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
New Mexico State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boise State
New Mexico State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boise State

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Tips and Trends

#12 Villanova at Notre Dame


Villanova: The Wildcats watched their chances for a Top-4 finish in the Big East take a serious shot on Saturday with a 56-54 home loss to Georgetown. They now need to win their last two games and have Pitt drop two in a row to end the regular season in order to earn a double bye in the Big East tournament. Villanova will definitely need to shoot better than the 33 percent they did against the Hoyas in order to beat Notre Dame on the road. “I thought we played hard but we didn’t execute and didn’t adjust to their defense,” Villanova head coach Jay Wright said. “They played better. They knew our personnel and did a great job of playing our personnel and executing their game plan.”

Villanova is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 7-1 in Villanova's last 8 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 80 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Notre Dame (-3.5, O/U 157): The Fighting Irish definitely need a win here if they have any hopes of making it into the NCAA tournament. If you listen to them, they still believe they have a shot despite losing 72-65 at #2 UConn on Saturday. “I think we still have a shot (at the NCAA tournament),” Notre Dame guard Kyle McAlarney said. “We’ve been recovering from losses from this all year. This isn’t a game where a loss knocks us out. A win would have propelled us, but we can still recover from this.”

Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
The OVER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 83


Baylor at #24 Texas

Baylor: The Bears are just 1-5 against ranked teams this season and have dropped 18 of their last 19 road games against Top 25 opponents. They have also dropped eight of their last 10 games overall, but one of those wins came on Saturday, a 75-57 rout of Colorado. Baylor ended the game on a 25-5 run after trailing by two points with a little more than eight minutes remaining. “That is a great way to close the game and give our guys confidence over the last two games,” said Bears head coach Scott Drew.

Baylor is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
The OVER is 14-5-1 in Baylor's last 20 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

Texas (-8, O/U 148.5): The Longhorns have won the last 23 meetings with Baylor and could use another victory here at home following a 68-59 loss at Oklahoma State on Saturday. They shot a season-low 31.5 percent against the Cowboys and were held below 60 points for only the second time this season. “We had our chances,” Texas head coach Rick Barnes said. “Our guys showed a lot of heart.” The Longhorns are 0-7 this season when failing to score more than 66 points but will be facing a Baylor defense surrendering 71.3 points per game.

Texas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 Monday games.
The UNDER is 10-3 in Texas' last 13 Monday games.

Key Injuries - F Gary Johnson (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 78

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Re: NCAAB News and Notes Monday 3/2

NCAAB Today

Notes on today's games.

Notre Dame won last three home games since losing to back/back home games to UConn/Marquette in January; Irish are 1-4 as home favorite in Big East games, winning at home by 6-9-33-10 points. Villanova is 9-2 in last 11 games, but lost at home to Georgetown Saturday, making just 33% from the floor- they won four of their last five road games.

New Mexico State (-1) lost 87-84 in Boise Jan 22, when Aggies were in midst of 1-4 skid; they've won six of last eight games now, are 1-6 as a WAC home favorite, winning home games by 3-8-10-8-2 points, losing to Nevada, Utah State. Boise 3-4 as WAC road dog, losing away games by 14-14-4-6-12 points, winning at Hawai'i, San Jose State.

Texas (+1.5) won 78-72 at Baylor Jan 27, holding Bears to 37.5% from floor, 6-20 from arc; Longhorns are just 4-5 since that game- they're 2-5 as Big 12 home favorite, winning home games by 8-9-25-5-6 pts, with losses to K-State, Missouri. Disappointing Bears are 1-5 vs spread as a Big 12 underdog, losing road games by 11-19-17-7-10-9 points.

Wofford (-2.5) won 85-82 in OT at Furman nine days ago, as Terriers made 51.7% from floor; Wofford won six of last eight games, ending the long Citadel win streak Saturday- they're 2-5 as a SoCon home favorite, winning home games by 3-3-13-7-15 points. Paladins lost last four in a row by 15-3-21-11 points; they're 4-5 as a SoCon road underdog.

Davidson (-23.5) beat Elon 83-68 in first meeting (was 46-24 at half), as Wildcats made 13-21 behind arc; they're 4-5 as a SoCon road fave, with road wins by 4-15-18-21-22-3-21-17-15 points. Elon is 8-5 as a SoCon underdog, 2-1 at home, losing home games by 8-17-4-14 points. Elon is 5-3 in last eight league games, after a 2-8 start in SoCon play.

Citadel had 11-game win streak snapped Saturday; they won last five road games, beat Georgia Southern 84-75 at home in first meeting (+1.5) shooting 24-34 on line while Eagles were just 6-21 from arc. As great a season as Citadel has had, they're just 3-3 vs spread as favorite. Georgia Southern lost last nine league games; they're 2-7 as a SoCon underdog.

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