THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
N.C. State at Wake Forest
Prediction: Wake Forest
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Wake Forest as they host NC State slated to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Wake will win this game by 12 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 139-78 and has made 53.2 units since 1997. Play on any team that is an excellent defensive team allowing a shooting percentage of <=40% facing an average defensive team allowing a shooting percentage of 42.5-45% and is an average ball handling team committing 14.5-17.5 TOPG facing a poor pressure defense forcing <=14.5 TOPG after 15+ games. Complex system to say the least, but one that summarizes the significant advantages that Wake will enjoy in this game. AiS also projects a 92% probability that Wake will attempt between 54 and 62 shots. Note that Wake is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Wake is also 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Wake is also a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 5 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better since 1997; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. NC State’s Tournament bid was essentially erased with the loss to North Carolina. Even though they played very tough and lost by just 9 points the loss was catastrophic as they then lost SU at home to a vastly inferior UVA team and were installed as 8 point favorites as well. These two losses in BB fashion clearly show that NC State is struggling mentally and now they face a Wake team that they simply know they cannot defeat.
Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
At 9 pm, our College Basketball High Roller is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Purdue. Earlier this year, U-M lost to the Boilers in West Lafayette, but now fall into some of my best same-season revenge angles (with records of 39-13 and 31-6 ATS). Also, Michigan catches Purdue in one of its worst roles, as the Boilermakers have covered just 19 of their last 66 away from home, if they are not playing with same-season revenge, and played their previous two games at home. This situation happened once before in conference play this season, and Penn State pulled the upset over Purdue in Happy Valley. This will be Michigan's final home game of the season, and I expect a raucous atmosphere at Crisler Arena. Look for the Wolverines to win big tonight on "Senior Day," and upset Purdue. Take the points.
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota. We played on the Gophers last Sunday against Northwestern, and Minnesota rewarded us with a 72-45 blowout victory. But that was a perfect spot for Tubby Smith's men, and now it's time to fade the Gophers, as they're an awful bet on the Big 10 road. Overall, Minnesota has lost its last six conference road games ATS, and has covered just 30 of its last 80 road games when not playing with same-season revenge. Earlier this season, Minnesota defeated Illinois 59-36, but prior to that win, the Illini had won 20 STRAIGHT vs. the Gophers. Look for Illinois to avenge that 23-point pasting, and win its 21st game of the last 22 vs. Minnesota. NCAA Roadkill on Illinois.
At 9 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Year is on the UAB Blazers plus the points over Memphis. UAB falls into one of my best systems, which is 81-27 ATS since 1990, and this system plays on certain home dogs with strong home courts (at least 32 wins in last 40 home games) which are matched up against .750 (or better) foes off a straight-up win. Additionally, UAB plays with revenge from a 13-point loss at Memphis, and the Blazers also fall into a same-season revenge angle of mine which is 39-13 ATS this year. Everyone knows about Memphis' dominance in Conference USA games: The Tigers have won 54 straight since falling at UAB two seasons ago. But UAB's working on some impressive streaks as well. The Blazers are 12-0 at home this year, and have won 26 of their last 27 home games, with their only loss by a single point (yes, to these Tigers), 79-78 last February. And Memphis won that game by the scantest of margins, as UAB hit a last-second shot, but replays showed it was released a hair after time expired. This will be another tough game for the 4th-ranked Tigers, as UAB is the top shooting team in Conference USA, and Blazer guard Robert Vaden leads the league in 3-pointers made, while teammate Paul Delaney has the best FG percentage, nationally, among all guards. The Blazers are 19-8 ATS at home since 1993 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS when checking in off a win. UAB's won six straight coming into tonight's game, and an outright upset win won't be a surprise. Take the points.