TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Brandon Lang

10 Dime Ball State

FREE - Ball State/Miami Over

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Dr. Bob

Ball St. (-19.5) 38 MIAMI OHIO 20

Ball State quarterback Nate Davis (8.7 yards per pass play) and running back MiQuale Lewis (1108 yards at 5.8 ypr) should pad their stats in this game against a horrible Miami-Ohio defense that has allowed 5.4 yards per rushing play and 6.5 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp and 5.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Ball State also has a solid edge with their solid defense against a sub-par Redhawks’ attack, but my math model only favors the Cardinals by 18 points.

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LOCK OF THE DAY

Tuesday Lock : BallState -17

BallState is having an excellent season!! No reason to think things will change versus 2-7 Miami of Ohio. Miami lost to Buffalo last week by 20. The week before they gave up 54 points to KentState! These teams are headed in opposite directions. BallState scored 45 points last week against a pretty good Northern Illinois defense. They should put up at least that many in tonight's game. Consider like opponents: BallState destroyed KentState by 41-20. This game will not be pretty! It will be over by halftime! Lay the points and enjoy this blowout!

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Bob Akmens

Philadelphia Flyers

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Bob Akmens

Philadelphia Flyers

10* flyers

10* pistons over 198

10* ball st -19.5

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Frank Patron

5000 Unit College Winner

Ball State @ Miami Ohio Over 54

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John Ryan

5* Toronto Maple Leafs
5* NY Islanders

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BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with MIAMI OHIO. By now, everyone knows that Ball State is a good team. Indeed, the Cardinals come in with a perfect 9-0 record to go along with an impressive 6-1 mark at the betting window. Give the Cardinals credit for having a great year. A perfect record in mid-November brings a lot media attention though. That means inflated pointspreads AND the best effort from every opponent. While Ball State did win big last week, take a look at what the other undefeated teams did. Utah needed to rally in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to defeat TCU. Penn State lost when Iowa hit a field goal at the buzzer and Alabama was taken to Overtime by LSU. Texas Tech and Boise State were the only teams that won big and the line on the Broncos got so big (-35) that they had to settle for a push vs. the closing number. In other words, three of five undefeated teams were seriously tested and only one of the five earned an "easy" cover. As was the case with the Boise State game, tonight's line has climbed a few points from its opener, providing us with additional line value. While its certainly been a disappointing season, the Redhawks are more talented than their record indicates. Keep in mind that they while the Cardinals were expected to contend for the Mac West title, the Redhawks were expected to contend for the Mac East title. In fact, at the beginning of the season, this was a game which Ball State had circled as one of its more difficult games on the schedule. Obviously, things haven't worked out as planned for Miami. My point is that this team is more talented than its record. Looking back to last year's meeting and we find that Miami won outright (as 5 pt underdogs) at Ball State, winning by a score of 14-13. Note that the Redhawks brought back a whopping 17 starters from that team. Looking back further and we find that the 2006 meeting was decided by just three points. In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have been decided by 11 points or less. Raudabagh gets the start at QB instead of Belton but that's not a concern as he's had plenty of starting experience with this team. Yes, the Redhawks have lost two in a row. They're already 2-0 ATS in lined games after two or more consecutive losses though, playing their best games in that situation. The Redhawks are also 5-3 ATS the last eight times they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for them to show some pride here and give the Cardinals a much tougher game than most are expecting. *Best Bet

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JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Miami (Ohio) - AiS shows an 83% probability that Miami (Ohio) will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. There is not a real potential for an upset here, but AiS shows that Miami will keep this game throughout. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 41-11 79% ATS since 2002. Play against road favorites that are a team with a turnover differential of +0.75/game or better facing a team with a differential of -0.75/game or worse and with the game being a conference tilt. Here is a second system that has gone 32-11 ATS for 74% since 2002. Play against road favorites off 2 consecutive home wins and a top-level team sporting a win percentage of >=80% playing a team with a losing record. here is a third system that has produced a mark of 43-14 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Let's not forget something very fundamental and that is Ball State has played no one this season. They have an opponent power ranking index of 24 while the other top-10 teams in the BCS sport an index at or above 40. Miami (Ohio) even has an OPR of 32 and that seasoning will help to make this a far closer game that Ball State would expect. Miami's Daniel Raudabaugh will start at quarterback versus Ball State. Redshirt freshman Clay Belton was injured last Tuesday vs. Buffalo and has been ruled out for play against Ball State. This is actually a big advantage in that Ball State will NOT be able to prepare for him and his tendencies. Take Miami (OHIO)

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DOC

3 Unit Play.Take Miami over Ball State

The Cardinals quest for perfection is on the line yet again when they travel to Oxford to take on the Redhawks. Miami won in Muncie in 2007 and this is just too many points to be laying on the road against a conference team. The Hawks have two decent running backs that are both averaging over four yards per carry and they should be able to move the football and keep the clock running. The Cardinals win this game and remain unblemished but it comes much closer then what the experts think.


3 Unit Play.Take Calgary over Toronto

The Flames are always a tough out at the Saddledome and the Leafs have just one victory in their last four games. Toronto has also lost three straight games in Calgary and the Flames are ready to return home after a road trip. Calgary has scored points in six of eight home games this season (5 wins) and will regroup in a big way tonight behind Miikka Kiprusoff and company.


3-Unit Play Take LA Lakers Over Dallas

Wanted to jump on the Lakers bandwagon here before the lines get too out of control. This team is amazing and they have added one of the best defenses in the league to an offense that is nearly unstoppable. Take away a road game at Denver that they won by seven points and they haven’t had a game that was even close this season. We love that we are getting this game under the key number of seven, which is the point on the scoreboard where the opposition will normally stop fouling in the final seconds of the game. As we have said before, the Mavs are on the downswing this season and we want to get on the Lakers before the oddsmakers take any value out of this team.

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LENNY STEVENS

10* Philadelphia 76ers

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Erin Rynning

Playmaker: Milwaukee/Cleveland Under 194

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Dave Cokin

Big Gun Northeastern

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Cajun-Sports Executive

3* Miami-Ohio +19

4* Chicago Bulls -3.5

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atslocks.com

5 units Cavaliers -11.5

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Rocketman

Nashville / San Jose
Play: 5* Nashville +200

Who in their right mind would take a Nashville team that is 1-7 on the road this year against a San Jose team that is a perfect 9-0 at home? Only me! We don't have a lot of stats or trends backing us in this game. San Jose main Goalie Nabokov is listed as questionable so I think the Sharks will be going with Boucher in this one tonight which gives us a little better opportunity in my opinion. We'll play Nashville for 5 units tonight!


Dallas / Los Angeles
Play: 3* Dallas -115

Los Angeles is 10-31 last 3 years after a win by 2 goals or more. Los Angeles is 12-43 last 3 years after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Dallas is 12-4 SU and ATS overall vs Los Angeles last 3 years. Stars are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. Stars are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Kings are 22-46 in their last 68 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 27-59 in their last 86 vs. Pacific. Kings are 15-36 in their last 51 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 home games. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 overall. Kings are 16-45 in their last 61 games following a win. Kings are 4-17 in their last 21 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 Tuesday games. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. We'll play Dallas for 3 units tonight!

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Root

Chairman- Lakers
Millionaire- Warriors
Insiders Circle- Bulls

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Mike Rose  

Charlotte Bobcats

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