Tuesday Night Football

Tuesday Night Football

Tuesday Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall

Buffalo at Ohio 7:00 pm EDT

Buffalo is coming off of an open date, which might serve the team well as to forget its play against the Black Knights. The Bulls entered their Oct. 18 scuffle with Army as an 11-point home “chalk.” But you wouldn’t have known it going by how Turner Gill’s crew performed on the field in a 27-24 overtime victory.

The Bulls were outgained by the Cadets, 372-320. And the majority of that yardage for the Knights came on the ground where their option attack pulled in 320 yards. Buffalo hasn’t been able to get its running game going in its last two games with starter James Starks (turf toe) “out” of the lineup. His backup, Mario Henry, was largely ineffective in the backfield with four carries for 27 yards. In all fairness though, Henry went down during the game with an MCL sprain, leaving Brandon Thermilus to fend for himself.

Buffalo also had a tough time on its offensive line by failing to help the ground game take off, but nullifying the passing attack. Drew Willy is among the best quarterbacks in the Mid-American Conference by averaging 231.3 passing yards per game with a touchdown to interception ratio of 11:3. You wouldn’t have known that from most of the Bulls’ last game as he got sacked five times. Despite those setbacks, Willy was able to make two clutch touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to force overtime.

Ohio had another heartbreaker last Tuesday night in its 14-10 loss at Temple. The Bobcats saw signal caller Boo Jackson connect on 23 of 40 passes for 220 yards without an interception…the fourth game in which he’s not given the ball back via the pick. However, Jackson did botch a handoff deep on his side of the field to give the Owls the ball back in the final five minutes of the game. The end result was the Bobcats’ third loss after holding a lead for three quarters.

As sloppy as they’ve looked recently, the betting shops are still making Ohio a three-point home favorite against the Bulls with a total of 49.

Turner Gill has said over the last week that Starks should be back in the lineup for this Tuesday’s contest. That could spell trouble for the Bobcats as he ran for 183 yards and a touchdown off of 36 carries in the Bulls’ 31-10 victory last season.

The home team has been the safe play as it has gone 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Ohio has an open date next week, which hasn’t helped them out over the seasons. That’s because the Bobcats are just 4-6 SU and ATS when playing the week before their bye.

The Bulls haven’t performed that great when coming off of an open date with a 1-4 SU and 2-2-1 ATS mark in this situation since 2001. The ’over’ is 5-1 in that time frame.

Houston at Marshall 8:00 pm EDT

The Cougars thought they were prepared to face a revamped Southern Methodist squad as 15-point road favorites. Yet overconfidence got the best of Houston early on as SMU raced out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter. The Mustangs continued to play inspired football as they took a 35-23 advantage into the final quarter of play.

Houston was able to get its act together in the fourth quarter. Case Keenum led the Cougars to three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, the last of which came with 17 remaining in regulation to win 44-38.

As bad as the Cougs might have looked last week, Marshall was worse in its 23-21 defeat as a three-point road “chalk” to the Blazers.

You could blame the Thundering Herd’s offense for this loss after converting just four of 15 third downs last Saturday. But this setback falls squarely on Marshall’s poor defensive performance. The Herd couldn’t stop the run (215) or pass (217) against a marginal UAB attack. Over the course of the game, Marshall missed several tackles on 10 separate plays that resulted in nine first downs and one touchdown. Even though this d-unit ranks eighth in Conference USA in total defense (427.6 YPG), the result on the field was embarrassing.

The sportsbooks have installed the Cougars as eight-point road favorites with the total coming in at 59.

Public perception will favor Houston to come away with a win, but they’re not a sure thing to cover. The reason being is the Cougs have gone 10-9 SU in their last 19 road games in Conference USA play. Yet they’ve posted an 8-11 ATS record in that same situation.

If you fancy playing totals, then consider taking the ‘under’ on Tuesday. Marshall has seen the ‘under’ go on a 4-1 run recently. And the Thundering Herd have watched it go 6-2 in their last eight contests in C-USA. Meanwhile, Houston has watched the ‘under’ post a 11-8 mark in road tilts in league play.

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Re: Tuesday Night Football

What bettors need to know: Tuesday's college football action
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Game: Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats

Odds: Ohio is set as a 2.5-point home favorite.

Busted Bulls

The Buffalo Bulls survived an overtime victory versus Army October 18, but just barely. An already banged-up roster got thinner after more injuries to the running corps.

Rushing leader James Starks was sidelined for the second straight game with turf toe and his backup, junior Mario Henry, is likely out for the year after suffering a right MCL injury. Starks is questionable for Tuesday's game after getting extra rest off the bye week.

That leaves Bulls head coach Turner Gill with sophomore Brandon Thermilus in the backfield. Thermilus has had limited touches but has made the most of them, rushing for more than 200 yards, catching almost 100 and scoring six times this season.

Add to these woes an offensive line that allowed quarterback Drew Willy to get sacked five times and blocked for just 41 total rushing yards against Army. The Bulls are averaging about 115 yards on the ground per game.

Cats collapse

Ohio played one heck of a football game for all but 11 minutes against Temple last week. It jumped out to a 10-point lead while keeping the Owl off the scoreboard. Then it happened again.

The Bobcats allowed two touchdowns in the dying minutes of Tuesday's game including the go-ahead score with just under two minutes left, losing 14-10 to their MAC rival.

Ohio was on the goal line with a 3-point lead and about to put the nail in the coffin when quarterback Boo Jackson zigged when running back Chris Garrett zagged on a hand off. The fumble was recovered by Temple and eventually led to the decisive touchdown.

The loss is the fourth time the Bobcats have lost by seven points or less and it marked the fourth time they've coughed up a led because of a costly mistake. It was also the third game Ohio has blown a lead after three quarters of football.

“The fourth quarter has haunted us for all of our games,” Jackson told reporters. “We don’t think it’s going to happen, but when it does happen, we have to play through it and unfortunately, (Tuesday), we couldn’t do it.”

The crushing defeat spoiled a superb defensive effort by the Bobcats. They gave up just 142 yards to Temple despite numerous injuries on defense. Ohio is ranked in the top 50 in total yards allowed and has done a good job plugging up the passing lanes this year.


Game: Houston Cougars at Marshall Thundering Herd

Odds: Marshall is an 8-point home underdog.

Big scores, big hits

It's hard to think of the Cougars as anything but a high-scoring offensive orientated squad after scoring more than 40 points in their last three games. Houston is averaging 39 points on 544 total yards per game. Out of those gains, over 400 of those yards are coming from the arm of quarterback Case Keenum.

Recently, the Cougars defense have been stealing the headlines. Houston's defensive numbers aren't turning heads in the CUSA, but their toughness in the redzone and big plays are snuffing out opponents scoring chances.

“They’re a little bend-but-don’t-break,” Marshall coach Mark Snyder told the Register-Herald. “They are very sound in what they do. They know what their weaknesses are and any time you expose one of the weaknesses, they’ve got an answer for it.”

Junior defensive back Brandon Brinkley leads the conference with four picks and a interception return for seven points two weeks ago. He's also collected 33 tackles and broken up four passes. Also getting circled on opposing scouting reports is defensive end Phillip Hunt. The senior is the finest pass rusher in the CUSA with 10 sacks for minus 72 yards.

Herd need to hang on

How do you stop one of the nation's most potent offenses? You keep them off the field.

Marshall might trade in its Thundering Herd moniker for a more conservative one Tuesday, hoping to dominate possession of the football.

"It's so easy to play defense when we're not on the field, and if they're able to control the ball a little bit it makes it so much easier,” Marshall defensive end John Jacobs told the Herald-Dispatch.

That will be a tall task for the Herd, who are last in time of possession in the CUSA after averaging just over 27 minutes with the football per game. However, Houston hasn't faired much better (mainly because it scores on almost every drive) with 29:59 per game this season.

In order to control the clock Marshall has to keep the ball on the ground. It currently ranks third last in the conference, averaging almost 128 rushing yards. Running back and team leading rusher Darius Marshall is having a tough time finding daylight recently. He has run for just 45, 19 and 35 yards in the past three game after racking up 252 yards in the two games before that skid. He has also been held scoreless in the past three games.

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Re: Tuesday Night Football

Buffalo (3-4, 4-3 ATS) at Ohio (2-6, 4-2-1 ATS)

Ohio takes the field on a Tuesday night for the second straight week, this time at home as it hosts Buffalo in a battle of Mid-American Conference East Division rivals.

The Bobcats went to Temple a week ago and took a 10-0 lead into the fourth quarter before giving up two touchdowns in the final 11 minutes, including the clincher with 1:51 to go, to lose 14-10, pushing as a four-point underdog. Ohio, which has alternated SU wins and losses in its last five games, came up short despite allowing Temple just 143 total yards (64 rushing, 79 passing), but the Bobcats’ offense sputtered in netting just 267 yards (47 rushing) while committing the game’s only two turnovers.

Buffalo has been idle since Oct. 18 when it edged Army 27-24 in overtime, snapping a three-game losing skid but failing to cover as a 10½-point home favorite. It was the second straight overtime game for the Bulls, who have seen four of their last five contests decided on the final play. Buffalo is averaging 26.7 points and 326 yards in its last three outings, but giving up 28.3 points and 376.3 total yards during this stretch.

The Bulls (1-2 SU and ATS in MAC play) are in third place in the East Division, while Ohio is a half-game back and tied with three other squads at 1-3 (1-2-1 ATS).

This is the 10th consecutive year that these schools have faced each other, with the home team winning nine of the 10. That includes Buffalo’s 31-10 rout of the Bobcats as a four-point home underdog last season, ending Ohio’s three-game SU and ATS winning streak in this rivalry. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last five clashes, and the ‘dog is 4-2 ATS in the last six.

Going back to 1997, Ohio is 6-0 SU against the Bulls at home (3-1 ATS in lined contests).

Buffalo has cashed in five straight road games and is on further pointspread runs of 9-2 against teams with a losing record, 4-1 after a non-cover and 7-1 following a SU win. Ohio is on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 9-3-1 in October, 13-3 on grass and 6-1 after a SU defeat.

The over is 17-7 in Buffalo’s last 24 conference games, 7-3 in Ohio’s last 10 in MAC play and 5-1 in Ohio’s last six at home. Also, two of the last three head-to-head meetings have topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO and OVER


Houston (4-3, 2-4 ATS) at Marshall (3-4, 1-5 ATS)

Houston looks to keep pace with 19th-ranked Tulsa in Conference USA’s West Division when it travels to Marshall for a nationally televised league clash.

The Cougars are off to a 3-0 start in Conference USA action (2-1 ATS), most recently holding off SMU 44-38 on Oct. 18 but failing to cover as a 14-point road favorite. Houston’s three-game winning streak follows a three-game losing skid, and the Cougars are mired in a 2-9 ATS slump in lined games dating to last season.

Marshall suffered its third loss in a row and its first in conference play on Oct. 18, falling 23-21 at UAB as a 2½-point road favorite. The Thundering Herd are tied atop the East Division with East Carolina at 2-1 (1-2 ATS), but they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven games dating to last year’s season finale.

These teams met last year in Houston, with the Cougars winning 35-28 but coming up short as a 12-point home chalk, thanks in part to the fact they committed the only two turnovers in the contest. The game featured 838 yards of total offense, with Houston piling up 472.

The Cougars have a massive offense edge coming into this one, putting up 39.3 points and 544.3 total yards per game (402.3 passing ypg), while Marshall manages just 19.1 points and 332.7 total yards per contest (205 passing ypg).

In addition to its ongoing 2-9 ATS funk, Houston is in pointspread ruts of 2-5 in Conference USA action, 1-5 on the highway and 2-5 against losing teams, but the Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a bye. Meanwhile, the Thundering Herd have failed to cover in six consecutive games on artificial turf and they’re 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight following a bye week.

For the Cougars, the under is on runs of 6-2 in conference games, 11-5 in October, 6-2 in conference action and 4-0 on turf. Meanwhile, Marshall is on under streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-2 in Conference USA play, 5-1 in October and 4-0 on turf. Finally, last year’s meeting in Houston stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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Re: Tuesday Night Football

Tips and Trends

Buffalo at Ohio


Buffalo: Buffalo’s path to the MAC East Division title begins at Ohio. The Bulls are in a four-way tie for second place with Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), and Ohio behind first-place Akron (2-2) with a 1-2 record. The Bulls have huge problems stopping the short passing game and have to elect to play more nickel and dime packages. The secondary is solid but the LBs are inexperienced and struggle in short pass coverage. Mario Henry will miss the next 4-6 weeks after suffering a severe medial collateral ligament sprain in his right knee. Henry was injured during the win against Army.

Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games.
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - RB James Starks (toe) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Ohio (-1.5, O/U 50.5): This will be the Bobcats' second straight appearance on Tuesday night after losing to Temple last week, 14-10. Defensively the Bobcats could not have done much more for the first three quarters against Temple. Ohio held the Owls to just 60 yards in the first three quarters, including negative yardage in the second and third quarters, as they racked up 13 tackles for loss. Ohio’s rushing game suffered a week after losing top runner Donte Harden for the season. The Bobcats finished with just a net 47 rushing yards on 29 attempts.

Ohio is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games.
Ohio is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games in October.

Key Injuries - RB Donta Harden (shoulder) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27


Houston at Marshall

Houston (-8, O/U 63): Houston ranks second in the nation in passing (403.3), third in total offense (544.3) and 12th in scoring (39.3). The running game does enough to keep foes honest, averaging 141.0 yards per game with 11 touchdowns on the ground. On defense, opponents have averaged 28.6 points and 399.0 yards per game against the Cougars. Houston has 15 takeaways and 14 sacks in seven games and has the conference’s No. 2 red-zone defense at 77.8 percent (21-of-27).

Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a bye week.
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games.

Key Injuries - DT Ell Ash (pectoral) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 35

Marshall: Marshall ranks 11th in C-USA in scoring (19.1), passing (204.9) and total offense (332.7) and ninth in rushing (127.9). They have only given up six sacks in seven games, but are a league-worst 13-for-20 inside the red zone. The Thundering Herd is eighth in total defense (427.6) and has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns. Only Southern Miss (nine) has fewer sacks than Marshall (11). LB Maurice Kitchens leads the squad with 51 tackles.

Marshall is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a bye week.
Marshall is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - S Omar Brown (foot) is questionable.
CB Zearrick Matthews (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28


Buffalo Bulls vs. Ohio Bobcats

Oddsmakers currently have the Bobcats listed as 2-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

A.J. Principie hit a 34-yard field goal in the first overtime, as Buffalo overcame two 14-point deficits to defeat Army 27-24 in Week 8.

The Bulls covered the 11-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 46.

Boo Jackson went 23-of-40 for 221 yards for Ohio in its 14-10 loss to Temple in Week 9.

Temple couldn't cover as 5-point home favorites as the teams played under the 43-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Team records:
Buffalo: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
Ohio: 2-6 SU, 5-2 ATS

Buffalo most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5

Ohio most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Ohio
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
Ohio is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

Next up:
Buffalo home to Miami (Ohio), Tuesday, November 4
Ohio home to Bowling Green, Saturday, November 8


Houston Cougars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

Oddsmakers currently have the Cougars listed as 8-point favorites versus the Thundering Herd, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

Houston scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to come back and defeat SMU 44-38 in Week 8. Houston failed to cover the 13.5-point spread, while the 82 points sailed OVER the posted total of 70.

Bryce Beall carried the ball 22 times for 105 yards and three touchdowns to lead the way.

Marshall was upset 23-21 in Week 8 by UAB, as 3-point favorites on the road. The combined 44 points fell UNDER the posted total of 55.5.

Mark Cann completed 17-of-28 for 236 yards with two touchdowns for Marshall.

Current streak:
Houston has won 3 straight games.
Marshall has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Houston: 4-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
Marshall: 3-4 SU, 1-5 ATS

Houston most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 8-2

Marshall most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marshall's last 5 games
Marshall is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
Marshall is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Next up:
Houston home to Tulane, Saturday, November 8
Marshall at East Carolina, Saturday, November 8


BUFFALO (3 - 4) at OHIO U (2 - 6)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


HOUSTON (4 - 3) at MARSHALL (3 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Buffalo at Ohio
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS off a home win
Ohio: 6-2 Over when the line is +3 to -3

Houston at Marshall
Houston: 0-6 ATS off BB SU wins
Marshall: 3-0 Over off 3+ ATS losses


BUFFALO vs. OHIO
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Ohio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo

HOUSTON vs. MARSHALL
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
Marshall is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Marshall is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games

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Re: Tuesday Night Football

Tuesday College Football Research
By Indiancowboy

Buffalo vs. Ohio

Roughly 56% of the public is riding Ohio here at home as the home team is slighly favored. The line has actually come down from an opening of -3 in the early going as it now sits at -1.5 in most books. Buffalo beat this team 31-10 at home last year and Ohio beat them the year before at home 42-7. Buffalo has been relatively impressive this year as although they are 3-4 this year, they beat Army at home in overtime, lost to Western Michigan by a touchdown at home, lost to Central Michigan by just 2 points on the road as a seven point dog and did defeat Temple and UTEP this year. Drew Willey has been soild for the Buffs this year as he has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. Boo Jackson on the other hand has thrown for 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The Buffs are around the top 35 in the nation in passing yards but around the top 100 in rushing yards. The Buffs are ranked around the top 90 in defense. Ohio has the 68th best offense in the nation with more of a passing attack in the top 40 and a top 90 defense while on defense this team is much more stout as they are top 50 in defense. Ohio's strenth is their pass defense which ranks in the top 30 but their rush defense is around the top 80. I wouldn't be surprised to see an under here today given that Buffalo's strength is the passing attack but that is Ohio's defensiev strength. Plus, this is a conference game as well which could mean that the defensive intensity could likely rise similar to the Boise State vs. Hawaii game.

Houston vs. Marshall

Over 67% of the public is riding Houston here. The public seems to love this team and their offensiev attack despite the fact they are 2-4 ATS. The total has risen from 59 to 62 and in some books 62.5. Case Keenum has thrown for 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while Mike Cann has thrown for 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Houston beat this team by a touchdown last year by a score of 35-28. Houston is on an upswing though winning their last three games including a 44-38 win over SMU. Marshall has missed three straight covers and lost three straight ballgames as well. Houston to their credit does have the third best offense in the nation with the second best passing attack. Their rushing attack ranks in the top 65. Houston's defense on the other hand ranks in the top 100 while Marshall's offense ranks in the top 80 and their defense ranks in the top 105. It seems that Marshall would be the public fade play here but it seems that their offense will have a tough time keeping up as they only put up 10 points at home against Cincy. Regardless, small lean on Marshall but likely no play for me.

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